Overview - The article presents a macroeconomic outlook for 2026, highlighting a "strong US and weak Europe" scenario, with monetary policies diverging as the US is expected to lower rates while Europe maintains its stance [1][2]. Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is projected to maintain steady growth, supported by fiscal measures during the midterm election year, with GDP growth expected at 4.8% [2][5]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to rise, with retail sales growth reaching 4.5%, driven by strong consumption policies [2][5]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to recover to a growth rate of 1.8%, bolstered by increased fiscal spending and major project initiations [2][5]. - Inflation is projected to be mild, with CPI at 0.5% and PPI at -1.4%, leading to a nominal GDP growth of 4.3% [2][5]. Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive, with a target deficit rate maintained at 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion [3]. - The total fiscal expenditure is projected to be 43 trillion, an increase of 1.6 trillion from the previous year, with potential for additional tools based on economic conditions [3]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately accommodative, with a possible OMO rate cut of 10 basis points to 1.3% and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [3]. Group 3: Capital Market Trends - The domestic stock market is expected to grow, driven by improved liquidity and performance, with A-shares continuing to outperform [4]. - The bond market may experience low volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to rise slightly to 1.8% [4]. - In the international market, the 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to decline to around 4.0%, while US stocks and Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise [4]. Group 4: Global Economic Dynamics - The article emphasizes a continued divergence in economic performance, with the US benefiting from trade policies while Europe and Japan face challenges [1][8]. - Japan's economy may face stagnation due to inflation pressures, potentially leading to interest rate hikes, contrasting with the US and European central banks [1][8]. - The overall global liquidity may be impacted by Japan's monetary policy shifts, which could lead to renewed volatility in financial markets [1][8].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Overview - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, highlighting a "strong US and weak Europe" scenario, with the US economy expected to maintain steady growth supported by fiscal policies during the midterm election year [1][2] - The US Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a dovish stance, potentially lowering interest rates three times to around 3% [1][2] - The article warns of Japan potentially facing "stagflation," with rising inflation pressures possibly forcing the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, contrasting with US and European central bank policies [1] Group 2: China's Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth is projected to reach 4.8% in 2026, characterized by stable external demand, improved internal demand, and price recovery [2][4] - The article outlines that fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a target deficit rate of 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion yuan, and a total fiscal arrangement of 43 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [2][4] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, with a potential reduction in the OMO rate by 10 basis points to 1.3% and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [3][4] Group 3: Capital Market Insights - The domestic stock market is expected to grow, with A-shares projected to rise to a central level of 4,300 points, driven by improved liquidity and corporate performance [3][4] - The bond market may experience fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to slightly rise to 1.8% [3][4] - Internationally, the article notes that the US stock market and Hong Kong stocks are likely to continue their upward trend, with the 10-year US Treasury yield expected to decrease to around 4.0% [3][4] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - The article provides asset allocation recommendations for the next six months, suggesting a high allocation to Chinese government bonds and A-shares, while recommending a reduction in US dollar bonds [5] - It emphasizes an upward adjustment for growth-oriented stocks and technology sectors, particularly in the Hong Kong market [5]

Group 1: US Macro Strategy - The US employment data and CPI showed a weak trend, with the unemployment rate rising sharply to 4.6% in November, while new jobs added were 64,000, slightly above expectations [2] - The November CPI recorded 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.0%, indicating a softening inflation trend despite potential statistical distortions [3] - The Federal Reserve's next chair confirmation may lead to further pricing in of rate cuts, with short-term bonds benefiting from this trend [3] Group 2: US Stock Market - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.10% and the Nasdaq by 0.48%, with market fluctuations driven by concerns over AI infrastructure spending and subsequent CPI data easing inflation worries [4] - The stock market remains at high valuations, with ongoing concerns about AI bubbles and monetization pressures, suggesting a potential 10%-20% market correction could lead to more reasonable valuations [4] Group 3: Currency and Gold - The US dollar is expected to enter a downward phase due to weak employment data and the upcoming confirmation of the new Fed chair, although a sustained decline is not anticipated [5] - The Chinese yuan is likely to appreciate due to the continuation of the Fed's rate cut cycle and increased demand for currency exchange [5] - Gold prices are expected to remain bullish, supported by ongoing Fed rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [5] Group 4: China Macro Strategy - Domestic economic data showed weak internal demand, with retail sales of passenger cars declining significantly in December [7] - The fiscal revenue growth slowed in November, with a notable drop in land sales revenue, while fiscal spending remains weak [8] - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining stable at 1.83% [8] Group 5: A-shares and Hong Kong Market - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.03%, while growth stocks underperformed due to external pressures [9] - The Hong Kong market faced challenges with the Hang Seng Index down by 1.10%, but medium-term outlook remains positive due to the Fed's rate cut cycle [10] - High-dividend and financial sectors showed relative strength, indicating a preference for stable investments amid economic pressures [10]

Core Viewpoint - The November US CPI inflation data significantly underperformed market expectations, with the CPI year-on-year growth dropping to 2.7% (market expectation: 3.1%) and core CPI increasing by 2.6% (market expectation: 3.0%), marking the lowest level since March 2021 [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Inflation - US commodity inflation peaked and then declined, with the CPI inflation rising by 2.1 percentage points to 1.9% from April to September, followed by a decrease of 0.1 percentage points to 1.8% in October and November. The month-on-month growth rate also slowed significantly, with a total increase of only 0.1% in October and November compared to 1.0% in August and September [5][6]. - The decline in commodity inflation is influenced by four main factors: 1. The base effect shifted from supporting to dragging down inflation, with commodity prices cumulatively falling by 0.6% from May to October 2024, which will support inflation readings in the same period of 2025 [8]. 2. The marginal support from the wealth effect on consumption has receded, as the US stock market entered a volatile phase in Q4, leading to a drop in retail sales growth to 0% in October [8]. 3. The impact of tariffs on commodity prices is diminishing, with a total increase of only 0.1% in October and November after a high increase of 1.0% in August and September [8]. 4. Statistical data distortion due to delayed reporting and missing data for October, which may have led to assumptions of unchanged prices for certain commodities [8]. Group 2: Housing Services - The decline in housing services inflation may be overstated, but the downward trend remains unchanged, with the CPI for housing services dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 3.0% in November. Major rent prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while owners' equivalent rent rose by 0.3% [9]. - The housing services inflation continues to be pressured by both the housing market and employment factors, with national home price growth slowing to 1.3% year-on-year in September, and high prices and interest rates keeping transaction volumes low [9]. Group 3: Other Services - Non-housing services inflation further softened due to slowing wage growth and weakening consumer momentum in Q4, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping to 3.0% in November and average hourly wages in private services decreasing to 3.4% [12]. - Price increases for major service categories have generally slowed, with restaurant and domestic service prices showing slight declines, while medical service prices have significantly slowed due to a cooling job market and wage growth [14]. Group 4: Strategy - Despite potential underestimation of inflation readings, the trend of slowing inflation has not fundamentally changed. Factors include stock market volatility impacting consumer spending, high interest rates and housing prices suppressing the housing market and housing services inflation, and a cooling job market affecting the wage-price spiral [15]. - The US Treasury market reacted cautiously to the November CPI data, with expectations for rate cuts in January and March remaining largely unchanged, and the first rate cut priced around April [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking the highest level since 1995, with unanimous support from all nine members [1][2]. Group 1: Policy - The BOJ's decision to raise interest rates is driven by high inflation and the depreciation of the yen, with November's CPI reaching 3.0% [2]. - The BOJ is expected to adopt a gradual approach to interest rate hikes, potentially increasing rates twice a year by 25 basis points, aiming for a range of 1-1.5% by 2026 [5]. - High inflation pressure is primarily supply-side driven, with food and utility costs being significant contributors, while service inflation is influenced by labor shortages due to an aging population [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Performance - Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter, with trade tensions severely impacting investment and exports [5][8]. - The combination of high inflation and low interest rates has allowed Japan to experience nominal growth that outpaces debt expansion, leading to a projected reduction in government leverage from 215% to 200% over the next five years [5][12]. Group 3: Strategy and Risks - The BOJ's cautious approach to interest rate hikes may lead to a reversal in yen liquidity, impacting global financial conditions, with approximately $9 trillion in low-interest yen positions potentially shrinking as the US-Japan interest rate differential narrows [14][15]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal expansion, including a supplementary budget of 2.8% of nominal GDP and plans to increase defense spending, may lead to rising long-term bond yields and a potential "stagflation" scenario [17]. - The outlook for the yen remains weak, with limited potential for sustained appreciation despite the recent rate hike, while Japanese equities may continue to perform well due to global investment trends [17].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a weak performance recently, with mixed net value changes across various fixed-income products. Short-term products have outperformed, while long-term products have faced declines. The overall sentiment in the bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential for increased volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, the sentiment in the bond market has weakened, leading to mixed performance in product net values. High-grade interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) yielded 0.13%, cash management products at 0.10%, and short-term bond funds at 0.05%, while medium to long-term bond funds and equity-linked bond funds saw negative returns of -0.09% and -0.69% respectively [3][9]. - The performance of various indices over the past month shows that short-term bond indices have achieved positive returns, while long-term indices have declined significantly [8][9]. Group 2: Market Review - The bond market has experienced a notable decline, with the yield curve steepening. Key factors influencing this include expectations of diminishing interest rate cuts, a high-risk appetite favoring equities, and increasing long-term bond supply against weakening demand [9][10]. - The liquidity in the market remains stable, with short-term funding rates slightly decreasing. The average rates for 3-month and 1-year AAA interbank CDs have risen marginally to 1.60% and 1.65% respectively [10][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the interbank CD rates are expected to remain stable, while government bond yields may fluctuate slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.7% and 2.0% [28][29]. - The bond market is anticipated to experience a weak and volatile phase, with the 10-year government bond yield likely to face upward pressure, although the extent of this increase is expected to be limited [28][29]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For investors focused on liquidity management, it is recommended to maintain positions in cash-like products and consider increasing allocations to stable low-volatility financial products and short-term bond funds [34][35]. - Conservative investors are advised to hold onto short-term pure bond products, while those with a higher risk tolerance may consider long-term bond funds when yields rise to the upper range of their expected levels [36][37]. - For more advanced conservative investors, it is suggested to allocate to fixed-income plus products, which may include convertible bonds and equity assets, taking advantage of the anticipated strong correlation between stocks and bonds [37].

Core Insights - Edge AI is leading a technological paradigm shift, reshaping the new landscape of the smart terminal industry by enabling local execution of AI models, resulting in low latency, high energy efficiency, and privacy protection [4][9][10] - The development of Edge AI is driven by innovations in AI computing architecture, multimodal perception and interaction, and system-level AI integration, transitioning smart devices from mere "computing nodes" to "local reasoning and autonomous decision-making" [4][6][10] Application Ecosystem - Multiscenario integration is accelerating the growth of the Edge AI terminal market, with AI PCs expected to achieve a penetration rate of 64% by 2028, and AI smartphones projected to exceed 900 million units in shipments by the same year [5][6] - AI wearables are anticipated to reach a market size of $153.8 billion by 2030, while AI smart homes are expected to grow to $537.2 billion, highlighting Edge AI as the core growth engine of smart hardware [5][6] Upstream Ecosystem - Breakthroughs in advanced process technology and Chiplet architecture are driving significant performance improvements in Edge AI, with NPU computing power increasing to 50-100 TOPS to meet local model operation demands [6][10] - The global Edge AI processor market is projected to grow from $31 billion in 2022 to $60.2 billion by 2028, with major players like Qualcomm, Apple, and NVIDIA dominating the high-end market [6][10] Business Recommendations - Companies should prioritize Edge AI as a key strategic focus, developing differentiated strategies around terminals, supply chains, and application scenarios to capitalize on this emerging trend [6]

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 11月美国新增非农就业人数6.4万（市场预期5.0万），10月新增就业人数则因联邦政府裁员而大幅下降10.5 万；11月失业率升至4.6%（市场预期4.5%），劳动参与率小幅上升至62.5%（市场预期62.4%），平均时薪同 比增速减速至3.5%（市场预期3.6%）。10月失业率及其它家庭调查数据因政府停摆永久缺失。 图1：11月美国失业率陡峭上行至4.6% 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 失业率陡峭上行更多来自暂时性因素扰动，从数据细节看就业市场仍有韧性，可能已经接近本轮周期底部。供 给扩张受到保守移民政策与老龄化的双重限制，移民劳工增长已经陷入停滞，黄金年龄段劳动参与率则较疫前 高出1.6pct，失业上行阻力越来越大。需求收缩同样缺乏长期持续的基础，政府裁员及停摆的冲击告一段落， 关税对相关行业的影响亦在衰减，职位空缺数已于8月见底回升。 图2：供给增加是失业率边际上行的重要原因 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 图3：黄金年龄段劳动参与率或已达峰 资料来源：MACROBOND、招商银行研究院 "双目标"前景符合预期，美联储大概率按计划放缓降息节奏 ...

Overview - The overall economic performance in November shows a slowdown, with key indicators falling below market expectations. Industrial value added increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% [1] - External demand remains resilient, but internal demand has significantly weakened, leading to a widening gap between industrial value added growth and investment and retail sales growth [1] - Consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose to 0.7%, the highest since March 2024, while producer price index (PPI) inflation slightly declined to -2.2% [1] Structure - Consumer spending showed weakness, with retail sales growth at 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. Notably, retail sales of automobiles and home appliances saw significant declines of 8.3% and 19.4%, respectively [2] - Fixed asset investment fell by 2.6%, with infrastructure investment down 11.9% and real estate investment plummeting by 30.3%. The decline in real estate is attributed to weak sales and financing pressures [3] - Exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in dollar terms, while imports rose by 1.9%. The growth in exports to emerging markets remains strong despite challenges in the U.S. market [4] Supply - Industrial production remained stable, with a 4.8% year-on-year increase in industrial value added. High-tech industries saw a notable growth of 8.4% [5] - CPI inflation increased significantly due to seasonal factors, particularly in fresh vegetables, while PPI inflation showed a slight decline. The performance of various sectors varied, with some industries experiencing price increases while others faced declines [5] Conclusion - The economic growth rate for the year is expected to be around 5%, with a focus on sustainable policy adjustments to enhance economic recovery. The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide a stable foundation for economic growth [6]

美联储主席人选再生变数，沃什成为哈塞特的有力竞争对手。 市场预期哈塞特可能更大程度牺牲美联储独立 性满足特朗普政府降息诉求，相比之下沃什则更偏鹰派。 上周受到12月美联储议息会议偏鸽，叠加美国当周初次申请失业金人数跳升的影响，市场交易偏鸽，美债利率 震荡，美元下跌，人民币升值，黄金上涨。 美股方面， 上周标普500指数上涨0.45%，美联储降息叠加偏鸽表态支撑了市场。短期来看，强劲的盈利基础 和宽松的货币政策构成关键支撑，短期市场有望修复。中期来看，美股估值偏高，AI泡沫担忧和变现压力的 问题仍然存在，未来市场还将在高估值、降息、AI变现之间反复博弈。美股盈利增长仍是核心支撑，但估值 上升空间收窄。 维持对美股的标配，收益预期方面回落至与盈利增速相匹配。若市场出现10%-20%的回调，估值将回归合理区 间，可考虑加大配置力度。配置上适度分散化，在科技股之外，可以关注材料和工业板块。 美债方面， 短期可关注本周公布的11月非农数据、明年初美联储新任主席的提名情况。若非农差于预期，或 是提名的主席人选鸽派倾向浓厚，美债利率可能会进一步下行。趋势上维持利率中枢下移的观点不变，其中短 债将直接受益于美联储的降息和扩表 ...