作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | --- | --- | | □ 顾 | 近１月 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 含权债基>中长期债基>短债基金>高等级同 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金 | | 收益回顾 | 业存单指基>现金管理 >中长期债基 > 现金管理 | | | 近一个月资金面先紧后松,中美经贸会议- 1月偏强震荡，2月-3月中旬债市大幅回 | | | 度抬升市场风险偏好,伊以冲突等事件带动 | | 债市回顾 | 调,4月初债市快速走强后转为偏强震荡,5 避险情绪回升,资金与情绪驱动债市先跌后 | | | 月下旬经历微幅回调，6月重回偏强运行。 | | | 活长。 | | | 1、5月理财产品存量规模进一步回升。 | | 行业事件 | 2、5 月 23 日，国家金融监督管理总局发布《银行保险机构资产管理产品信息披露管理办 | | 跟踪 | 法（征求意见稿）》，允许资产管理产品不披露业绩比较基准，披露则应明确业绩比较基准 | | | 的选择原因、测算依据或计算方法等信息。 | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) 中期(3-6个月维度) | ...

Economic Overview - The economic outlook has slightly deteriorated, with growth rate forecasts down by 0.3 percentage points and unemployment rate up by 0.1 percentage points compared to March predictions [2] - The PCE and core PCE inflation forecasts have been raised by 0.3 percentage points, with tariffs expected to push prices higher this year [2] Policy Insights - The dot plot indicates a "bimodal distribution" within the Federal Reserve, with one faction focused on the impact of tariffs on prices and another concerned about the economic growth implications [4] - Seven officials predict no rate cuts in 2025, while two expect only one cut this year, and eight anticipate two cuts [4] - Powell emphasized the uncertainty in the economic outlook and stated that no official can make a clear prediction on interest rate movements under current conditions [3][4] Market Strategy - The market reacted moderately to the Fed's meeting, with a neutral trading return at the close [5] - The OIS curve suggests a 48 basis point reduction in rates by 2025, approximately two cuts [5] - U.S. Treasury yields showed minimal changes, with the 2-year yield at 3.94%, 5-year at 3.99%, 10-year at 4.39%, and 30-year at 4.89% [5] - The dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.878, with the offshore RMB exchange rate stabilizing around 7.19 [6] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices showed little movement, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7] - The 10-year yield above 4.5% and 5-year yield above 4.1% are seen as suitable entry points, with potential for a technical rebound in the dollar providing selling opportunities [7]

■ 尽管近期中美关税显著缓和，但相较2018年贸易战1.0时期，本轮美国对华加征关税范围广、节奏快、幅度 高、政策不确定性大，预计仍将对我国出口和经济增长形成一定拖累。 ■ 更加积极的财政政策或更加突出功能财政理念，作为经济中的"最后借款人"积极提振需求。一方面，财政将 加快已有政策执行落地节奏。结合预算内和预算外资金测算，今年财政总量空间明显扩张。另一方面，年内财 政仍有"空中加油"的必要性。一是对冲关税冲击，托底经济增长。二是支持地方政府，推动地方财政重回扩 张。 ■ 2025年预算内财政总量空间 达41.6万亿，较上年显著扩张2.5万亿，为历史最高水平。一是目标赤字率突破 至4.0%。二是预算收入目标保守务实。三是收入承压背景下，财政预算支出较为积极。四是政府债券是财政 增量财力最主要的来源，超长期特别国债常态化发行。 ■ 2025年预算外财政空间或进一步打开，规模或达7.8万亿，较上年增加1.3万亿；占名义GDP的比重为5.5%， 较上年提高0.7pct。财政预算外资金来源主要是政策性银行以及城投平台。其中，政策性银行对财政的支持主 要体现在政金债和PSL两方面。 ■ 目前地方政府财政压力和债务负担依 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is leveraging its advantages in the drone industry to establish a leading position in the low-altitude economy, focusing on the commercialization of application scenarios, particularly in logistics and transportation [1][2]. Group 1: Low-altitude Economy Development - The low-altitude economy is advancing towards electrification, intelligence, and connectivity, aiming to bypass Western technological barriers and establish standards and regulations [5][10]. - The current scale of China's low-altitude economy has exceeded 500 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 33.8%, and is expected to surpass one trillion yuan in the next three years [2][12]. - The commercialization of low-altitude economic application scenarios is progressing in phases, with consumer markets maturing and sectors like agricultural protection and industrial inspection entering commercial operations [1][12]. Group 2: Low-altitude Logistics Market - The low-altitude logistics market is projected to grow rapidly, reaching approximately 330.5 billion yuan in 2024 and potentially becoming a trillion-yuan market within five years [2][18]. - The penetration of drones in the last-mile delivery market has completed the "0 to 1" process, with expectations for large drones in trunk and branch logistics to follow [2][17]. - The demand for drones from logistics companies like SF Express and Meituan is expected to drive investment in the drone manufacturing and component sectors, reshaping the competitive landscape [2][46]. Group 3: Commercialization Pathways - The commercialization of low-altitude logistics will occur in two phases: expanding city and route coverage, followed by increasing flight density [25][37]. - The average delivery time for drone logistics is significantly reduced compared to traditional methods, with potential cost savings as drone usage scales up [27][31]. - The integration of drones into logistics is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, making low-altitude logistics one of the most promising application scenarios [26][36]. Group 4: Industry Collaboration and Future Outlook - Major logistics companies are collaborating with startups to lead the development of the drone logistics industry, with significant procurement orders expected to reshape the competitive landscape [46][47]. - The future investment in the low-altitude logistics sector is anticipated to exceed 500 billion yuan, driven by the demand for drone procurement and operational infrastructure [43][44]. - The rapid growth of the express delivery and instant delivery markets presents substantial opportunities for drone logistics, with significant room for penetration in both sectors [38][39].

美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，美联储年内降息预期维持在2次（约50bp），降息终点预期维持在3.5%。 亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速稳定在3.8%，投资扩张继续减速，长端利率上 行的紧缩效应再度显现。个人消费（PCE）增速稳定在2.5%，商品（3.0%）与服务（2.2%）同步扩张；私人 投资（不含库存）增速降至1.1%，主要来自地产（-1.6%）及建筑（-3.3%）分项的拖累。 失业率趋势企稳。周频首次申领失业金人数稳定在24.8万，结束了一轮上行趋势，符合季节性水平。通胀再起 波澜，中东局势恶化推升油价，Truflation日频通胀指数上行22bp至2.06%。 海外策略：美元延续弱势行情 财政保持扩张立场。周频财政赤字额达到$407亿，继续超出季节性水平。2025财年美国赤字水平将继续处于高 位。 基于"双目标"及经济、财政形势推演，美联储并无大幅调整政策的动机，维持年内降息不超2次（50bp）判 断，甚至可能不降息。 上周影响海外市场走势的逻辑有两条：一是美国通胀数据低于预期，市场交易偏鸽。二是伊以冲突升级，避险 情绪升温。在此背景下，美债、黄金表现较好，美元跌至年内最低，人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a mixed performance, with supply-side growth remaining strong while demand-side indicators show signs of slowing down, particularly in investment and real estate sectors [1][5]. Supply Side: Strong Support - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7% [6]. - The manufacturing sector saw a marginal slowdown, with high-tech industries maintaining robust growth rates of 8.6% [6]. - The service sector production index increased by 6.2%, driven by recovering consumer demand and increased holiday travel [9]. Fixed Asset Investment: Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.1%, with infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates declining [10]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.7%, indicating ongoing challenges in the property market [10][14]. - The construction sector is under pressure due to local government debt and slow issuance of special bonds for projects [10][11]. Consumption: Accelerating Beyond Expectations - Social retail sales increased by 6.4%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 4.8%, with both goods and catering consumption reaching new highs for the year [19]. - The increase in consumption is attributed to policy effects, pre-scheduled shopping festivals, and high demand for electronics and home appliances [19][22]. Outlook: Stabilizing with Localized Pressure - The impact of tariff changes on the economy is expected to weaken, with the second quarter growth likely to exceed earlier market expectations [24]. - However, persistent low prices may continue to erode corporate profits and delay improvements in consumer expectations [24].

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing uncertainty in global economic policies and the challenges investors face in wealth growth, particularly in the context of low interest rates in China and high volatility in equity assets [1][4] - It introduces two classic asset allocation models: the Permanent Portfolio and the All Weather Portfolio, which aim to create low-volatility investment strategies that can withstand economic cycles [1][4] - Historical data from 1971 to 2024 shows that both models have achieved annualized returns of 8-9% in the US market, with the Permanent Portfolio yielding 8.4% and the All Weather Portfolio yielding 8.7% [10][11] Group 2 - The long-term effectiveness of these models is attributed to three main reasons: economic growth and monetary expansion leading to positive returns on underlying assets, low correlation among assets reducing portfolio volatility, and diversification and rebalancing enhancing compound returns [2][19] - The article emphasizes that the long-term returns of various asset classes are generally positive, with equities outperforming other assets, which is crucial for the portfolio's ability to exceed nominal GDP growth [2][20][22] Group 3 - The article details the asset allocation ratios for both models, explaining that there is no optimal allocation ratio as it depends on individual risk preferences and return objectives [3][55] - It highlights the importance of understanding the long-term returns and volatility of underlying assets, as well as their correlations, to make informed allocation decisions [56][57] Group 4 - The article analyzes the performance of the Permanent and All Weather Portfolios in the US market, showing that both portfolios have lower volatility compared to individual asset classes while achieving returns close to equities [14][18] - It provides a detailed examination of the historical performance of these portfolios, including their maximum drawdowns and annual returns over the years [10][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation trends in May, highlighting a slight decrease in CPI and a more significant drop in PPI, with implications for future economic conditions and policy responses [1][10]. Group 1: CPI Inflation - May CPI inflation was reported at -0.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and exceeding market expectations of -0.2% [1][2]. - Energy prices have significantly dragged down CPI inflation, while core CPI showed slight upward support [2][6]. - Food prices experienced a mild decline, with a 0.2% drop month-on-month, which is less than the average decline of 1.4% over the past five years [5]. - Core CPI inflation rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, although month-on-month momentum has weakened [6][7]. - Service prices remained resilient, with travel prices increasing by 0.8% month-on-month, surpassing the five-year average of 0.2% [6]. Group 2: PPI Inflation - May PPI inflation was reported at -3.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and -0.4% month-on-month, which is weaker than the historical average since 2017 [10][12]. - The decline in PPI is attributed to weak oil prices affecting the entire industrial chain and a slowdown in the construction sector due to adverse weather conditions [10][12]. - Despite the overall decline, there are signs of recovery in prices related to exports and new growth sectors, with textile prices narrowing their decline and some electronic prices turning positive [12][15]. Group 3: Forward Outlook - Looking ahead, energy prices are expected to remain weak, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 [9]. - The overall pace of CPI recovery is anticipated to be slow, influenced by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [16]. - For the second quarter, CPI inflation is expected to stabilize around 0%, while PPI inflation may drop to approximately -3.0% [16].

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's import and export growth rates declined due to tariff impacts, with exports slowing and imports decreasing significantly, while trade surplus expanded substantially [1][4]. Exports: Tariff Impact and Declining Growth - In May, export value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a further slowdown of 3.3 percentage points from April, primarily due to a significant drop in exports to the U.S. [5] - The U.S. import demand weakened significantly, influenced by frequent adjustments in U.S. tariff policies and increased operational costs due to trade uncertainties [5] - Exports to non-U.S. regions, such as Europe (12%), ASEAN (14.8%), and Africa (33.3%), maintained strong growth, although the momentum may slow down in the future [5][8]. Import: Widening Decline - In May, the import value decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, a widening decline of 3.2 percentage points [14] - Imports from the U.S. fell by 18.1%, with the decline expanding by 4.3 percentage points compared to April, reflecting weak domestic demand [14] - Despite a significant decrease in imports from the U.S., imports from the EU showed a slight recovery, indicating a potential substitution effect [14]. Outlook: Export Pressure in the Second Half - Export growth is expected to further slow down in the second half of the year, with the average tariff rate on Chinese goods in the U.S. remaining high at 41.2% [17] - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Southeast Asia may disrupt China's foreign investment pace and affect exports through multinational supply chains [17].

海外策略：稳步扩张 美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，美联储年内降息预期维持在2次（约50bp），降息终点预期维持在3.5%。 上周亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速较前值回落0.8pct至3.8%，前期长端利率上 行的紧缩效应再度显现。个人消费增速降至2.6%，商品（3.3%）与服务（2.3%）均在放缓；私人投资（不含 库存）增速降至1.6%，主要来自地产（-0.9%）及建筑（-3.0%）分项的拖累。 失业率仍在上行，但斜率极缓。 周频首次申领失业金人数上行至24.7万，符合季节性水平。5月失业率较4月上 行0.05pct至4.24%，连续第3个月维持在4.2%左右。 市场对通胀的担忧亦在缓和。 Truflation日频通胀指数降至 1.84%，较前期高点回落26bp。 财政延续了"言语收缩，行为扩张"的基调。 尽管一直在进行各种缩减赤字的表态及尝试，但实际上财政赤字 仍在扩张。周频财政赤字额达到$1,275亿，继续超出季节性水平。2025财年美国赤字水平将继续处于高位。 基于货币政策"双目标"及经济、财政形势推演，美联储并无大幅调整政策的动机，我们维持年内降息不超2次 （50bp）判断， ...