Core Viewpoints - The improvement in M1 may be partially attributed to accelerated fiscal spending, with a notable increase in enterprise deposits and a decrease in fiscal deposits [2][8][20] - Resident loans remain weak, with limited effects from consumer loan interest subsidy policies, reflecting a cautious attitude towards debt among households [2][11] - The decline in social financing growth is linked to the end of "front-loaded" fiscal financing, particularly government bond net financing [3][16] Financial Data Summary - In September, the total credit balance decreased by 0.2% year-on-year to 6.6%, while social financing stock fell by 0.1% to 8.7%. M1 increased by 1.2% to 7.2% [1][7] - New credit in September was 12,900 billion, down 3,000 billion year-on-year, primarily due to the corporate sector [20][25] - M2 saw a year-on-year decline of 0.4% to 8.4%, while M1's new calculation rose by 1.2% to 7.2% [28] Loan Structure Analysis - In September, resident loans added 3,890 billion, a decrease of 1,110 billion year-on-year, with short-term loans down by 1,279 billion and medium to long-term loans up by 200 billion [20][25] - Corporate loans totaled 12,200 billion, down 2,700 billion year-on-year, with a significant drop in bill financing [20][25] - The structure of loans indicates a continued preference for short-term financing among enterprises, despite improvements in PPI and PMI indices [14][20] Future Outlook - The collaboration of fiscal and monetary policies may provide marginal support for the stability of social financing operations, with the introduction of 5,000 billion in new policy financial tools aimed at project capital [3][18] - The new policy financial tools are expected to have a stronger leverage effect and may expand into technology and consumer sectors, aiding in economic structural transformation [18]

10月特朗普关税威胁再起，但此次中方更从容，美方分歧加大。本文从美方视角出发，客观梳理美国政 界对特朗普关税策略的批评及建议，为理解美国关税未来可能取向提供框架化参考。 一、美方视角下，中国关税策略出现了哪些调整？ 本次关税不确定性来源于9月以来美国非关税措施。 9月，美国BIS扩大制裁范围；10月9日，商务部出台 稀土出口管制措施；10日，特朗普威胁加征100%关税，对关键软件实施出口管制，发表不利言论，但随 后，特朗普又做改口。此次，美国政界对自身关税策略的分歧扩大。 美国政界认为中国关税策略出现两点新变化。 一是中方以战术性协议换取战略发展空间，包括TikTok协 议、农产品采购等，这些措施不损害中方核心利益，但可满足特朗普诉求；二是与关税1.0时期相比，中 方增强了主动性，包括停止购买美豆，在会晤前主动创设议题和谈判筹码。 出口管制措施引起美国两党普遍担忧及警惕。 今年4月中方首次出台稀土出口管制措施，主要针对的是 境内出口商；10月的出口管制新措施将域外适用首次写入条文。CSIS认为此次调整是长线策略的急剧升 级，众议院对华特设委员会呼吁采取行动巩固美国稀土供应链。 二、站在美国战略层视角，特朗普关 ...

事件 ：10月15日，国家统计局公布9月通胀数据，CPI同比-0.3%、前值-0.4%、市场预期-0.1%、环比 0.1%；PPI同比-2.3%、前值-2.9%、市场预期-2.4%、环比0%。 核心观点：大宗涨价提振上游PPI，黄金与家电价格走高对中下游CPI也有较大拉动。 线索一：9月PPI改善，主因大宗价格延续上涨，但主要是受反内卷影响较小的铜价大幅上涨。 9月PPI环 比0%。从影响因素看，国内大宗商品中，9月以来铜价再度出现回涨（环比2.1%），对应有色采选、有 色压延业CPI环比分别2.5%、1.2%，拉动PPI环比0.1%，为主要贡献项。煤价也继续上涨，对应煤价拉动 PPI环比0.1%。但中下游产能利用率偏低导致中下游价格无法充分反映上游涨价传导，测算该因素拖累 PPI环比-0.1%。 线索二：整体CPI偏低主因食品价格拖累，核心CPI涨幅仍在扩大，结构上黄金价格的拉动作用持续增 强。 9月CPI环比0.1%，不及2017年来均值（0.4%）；其中核心CPI同比上行至1.1%，结构上源于核心商 品CPI（同比+0.5pct至1.4%）。其中金价对核心商品CPI提振较强，金饰品和铂金饰品价格同比分别 ...

Group 1 - The economic internal pressure is gradually emerging as the "cyclical" forces weaken, with high export growth driven by the shift from short-term "export grabbing" logic to medium-term logic of "industrialization acceleration in emerging countries" and China's market share replacement in emerging markets [2][10] - Domestic demand may continue to be under pressure, reflected in the decline of equipment renewal cycles and reduced new construction, leading to potential further downturns in manufacturing and real estate investment [2][22] - The profit margin for enterprises remains under pressure, with August industrial enterprise profits rebounding significantly (+21 percentage points to 19.8%), primarily due to low base effects and short-term factors, while cost rates remain high at 85.6% [3][31] Group 2 - The transition from "old policies" to "new policies" may have a time lag in stimulating the economy, with the "demand overdraw" effect from previous policies becoming more apparent, potentially leading to weaker consumer goods consumption and manufacturing investment [4][83] - The issuance of special government bonds has been completed, and many regions have suspended national subsidies, indicating a potential decline in manufacturing investment and consumer goods retail growth [4][38] - The implementation of "incremental policies" is slow, with limited immediate impact on the economy, as new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan are expected to take time to translate into substantial economic support [5][84] Group 3 - Expectations for inflation support are diminishing, with upstream commodity price increases slowing down, leading to a reduced impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI) [6][59] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are expected to show weak recovery characteristics, with PPI growth being limited by lower capacity utilization in downstream sectors [6][63] - Economic growth's internal momentum is expected to decline, with a focus on the effectiveness of incremental policies in supporting domestic demand, while external demand may still show resilience [8][71]

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production has shown a slight decline, with high furnace operation rates remaining high but experiencing a week-on-week stability at 84.3%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 percentage points to 83.4% [2] - The apparent consumption of steel has decreased significantly, with a week-on-week drop of 18.7% and a year-on-year decline of 29.8% to 17.6% [2] - The inventory of steel has increased by 6.5% week-on-week [2] Group 2: Midstream Production Insights - The operating rates in the petrochemical and automotive sectors have declined, with the soda ash operating rate decreasing by 0.8% week-on-week to 88.4%, and a year-on-year drop of 1.5 percentage points to 0.6% [7] - The PTA operating rate has shown a slight increase of 1% week-on-week to 77.5%, but a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points to -5.6% [10] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires has dropped significantly, with a week-on-week decline of 27.1% to 46.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.9 percentage points to -28.5% [7] Group 3: Construction Industry Performance - Cement demand has decreased, with the cement shipment rate dropping by 3% week-on-week to 44.3%, and a year-on-year decline of 4.9 percentage points to -9.1% [14] - The cement inventory ratio has slightly increased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to 1.4% [14] - The average price of cement has shown a slight increase week-on-week [14] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing has improved, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreasing by 55.7% week-on-week but increasing by 21.3 percentage points year-on-year to 0.3% [30] - The freight volume related to domestic demand has shown weakness, with road freight vehicles decreasing by 25.6 percentage points year-on-year to -15.9% [37] - The number of domestic and international flights has remained high, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points to 3% for domestic flights [46] Group 5: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have generally declined, with prices for eggs, vegetables, and pork decreasing by 3.4%, 2.4%, and 0.3% respectively [65] - The industrial product price index has shown a slight decline of 0.2% week-on-week, with energy and chemical prices decreasing by 2% [75] - The metal price index has increased by 1.7% week-on-week [75]

Core Viewpoints - September exports showed strong growth due to a combination of low base effects and improved external demand [2][70] - The year-on-year export growth in September was 8.3%, significantly higher than the expected 5.7% and previous value of 4.4% [69][70] - Import growth also increased to 7.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 1.4% [69][70] Export Analysis - The strong export performance in September was influenced by a low base from the previous year, with a 3.9 percentage point increase from August [2][70] - Exports to the EU rose by 3.8 percentage points to 14.3%, benefiting from last year's decline of 11.5% [2][70] - The global manufacturing PMI for September was 50.8, indicating resilience in external demand [2][70] Country-Specific Insights - Exports to the US improved, likely due to ongoing inventory replenishment cycles, with a 6.1 percentage point increase to -27% [2][70] - Exports to emerging economies increased by 4.2 percentage points to 15.8%, with exports to Africa surging by 30.5% [3][71] - Despite a decline in exports to ASEAN by 6.9% to 15.7%, overall growth remained robust [3][71] Import Dynamics - Imports of mechanical and electrical products showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% to 10.1% [3][31] - Key imports included crude oil (+22.8% to 7.7%) and soybeans (+23.5% to 14.6%), indicating improved domestic demand [3][31] - Processing trade imports also rose significantly, suggesting strong external demand and stability in overall exports [3][31] Future Outlook - While tariff fluctuations and base effects may disrupt exports, improved external demand and market share gains are expected to sustain high export levels [4][72] - Leading indicators for October, such as port freight volumes and export production chains, suggest continued strength in exports [4][72] - The ongoing trend of increasing import demand from emerging economies and a shift in market share towards China are likely to support future export resilience [4][72]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人| 陈达飞 摘要 10月6日以来，美元强势升值，9日盘中一度升至99.6高位，为8月初以来的新高。美元能否打破三季度以来的低位震荡格局、长期贬值预期能否继续演绎？ 热点思考：美元的"十字路口" （一）近期美元反弹的三个阶段和两方面原因 本轮美元反弹的时间起点是9月中旬美联储重启降息之后，整体可以分为三个阶段理解：第一阶段， 9月17日-25日，在美联储如期降息25bp叠加中性偏鹰的 经济预测摘要发布之后，前期较乐观的"降息交易"重新校准，2年期美债利率和美元指数同步反弹。 第二阶段， 9月26日-10月3日，在美国政府"关门"预期和事实冲击下，美元反弹按下"暂停键"。截至10月3日，美元指数和2年期美债利率小幅下行至97.7和 3.58%。 第三阶段， 10月6日-9日，由于日本和法国政府内阁重组或动荡，美元被动走强。高市早苗"意外"当选日本自民党总裁。由于其经济政策立场带有较浓厚 的"安倍经济学"标签，市场开始交易宽松；法国总理勒科尔尼在10月6日突然宣布辞职，触发欧元贬值。 （二）美元反弹或难延续的四个解释 9月中旬以来的美元升值仍是长期贬值趋势中的一次反 ...

Key Points - The article discusses the recent volatility in global risk assets, with a notable decline in major stock indices and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds [2][63] - There is an increase in tariff uncertainty, particularly with Trump's renewed threats of tariffs on Chinese goods, which is a common negotiation tactic [38][63] - The political landscape in Europe is unstable, with significant events such as the French Prime Minister's sudden resignation and the Japanese ruling party's coalition changes, which could impact economic policies [40][42][63] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal a division among officials regarding future interest rate cuts, highlighting concerns over private credit risks following the bankruptcy of First Brands Group [51][45][63] Asset Class Summary - Global risk assets have mostly retreated, while safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries have surged. The S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped by 2.5% [2][63] - In developed markets, the Nikkei 225 rose by 5.1%, while other indices like the Hang Seng and Dow Jones saw declines [3] - Emerging markets showed mixed results, with indices like the Ho Chi Minh Index increasing by 6.2% [3] Sector Performance - In the U.S., most sectors within the S&P 500 declined, particularly energy and consumer discretionary, which fell by 4.0% and 3.3%, respectively [7] - In the Eurozone, sectors such as consumer discretionary and technology also faced declines, while utilities and consumer staples saw slight gains [7] Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.1% to 98.82, while the offshore yuan depreciated to 7.15 [19][27] - Commodity prices were mixed, with WTI crude oil dropping by 3.3% to $58.9 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 2.7% to $3986.2 per ounce [28][33] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a split among officials on the appropriateness of further rate cuts, with some advocating for caution due to loose financial conditions [51][63] - The bankruptcy of First Brands Group raised concerns about risks in the private credit market, which has seen significant growth since the pandemic [45][63]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 9 . 2 7 - 1 0 . 1 0 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 六问美国政府"关门" 高频跟踪 1、数据点评 | 如何理解8月利润走强？ 2、数据点评 | 9月PMI：新动能接力旧动能 3、Top Charts | "国庆"假期消费图鉴 4、3分钟看清国庆全球要闻 电话会议 1、 "周见系列" 第50期：《假期要闻》 第51期：《四季度"前瞻"》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 六问美国政府"关门" 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.10.9 9月30日，因临时财政拨款未能及时通过，美国政府时隔近7年再次陷入停摆。此次政府"关门"有何特殊之处，可 能对美国经济及市场产生哪些影响？ | 开始日期 | 结束日期 | 持续天数 | 总统 | 参议院多数党 | 众议院多数党 | 核心争议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1981-11-20 1981-11-23 | | 2 | 里根 (R) | 共和党 | ...

Group 1 - The core reason for the government shutdown is the dispute over extending healthcare subsidy policies, with Democrats advocating for the extension of the Affordable Care Act's enhanced tax credits and Republicans opposing the bundling of these issues with temporary funding [1][8][41] - The market anticipates the government shutdown could last over 15 days, with a 67% probability for such a duration based on trading predictions [1][9][41] Group 2 - During the government shutdown, non-essential government activities cease, while essential services related to life, property, and national security continue to operate [2][12][42] - Federal statistical data releases may be suspended, affecting key economic indicators such as retail sales, employment rates, and CPI [2][14][42] Group 3 - Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 11 shutdowns since 1980, averaging 8.6 days in duration, with the longest being 34 days [3][16][43] - Shutdowns are typically triggered by two types of disputes: fiscal policy disagreements and political maneuvering, often involving healthcare and immigration policies [3][21][22][43] Group 4 - The impact of a government shutdown on GDP is relatively minor, with a one-month shutdown estimated to reduce GDP by only 0.02% [4][24][44] - The primary channels through which shutdowns affect the economy include federal employee income and policy uncertainty, with wage back-pay mitigating long-term impacts [4][24][44] Group 5 - Government shutdowns generally have minimal effects on non-farm employment, although they may temporarily raise the unemployment rate, which typically reverts after the government reopens [5][29][30][45] - For instance, the 2019 shutdown led to a temporary increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, which later decreased by 0.2 points upon reopening [5][30][45] Group 6 - The long-term effects of government shutdowns on major asset classes are limited, with the S&P 500 index showing an average increase of 2.91% during shutdown periods [6][35][46] - U.S. Treasury yields tend to decline during shutdowns, with the 10-year yield averaging a drop of 2.25 basis points [6][36][46] - The U.S. dollar typically weakens slightly, averaging a decline of 0.30%, while gold prices may rise modestly [6][36][46]