Group 1 - The article emphasizes the coordinated policy signals from various ministries, focusing on stimulating domestic demand, enhancing support for technological innovation, and invigorating private investment as key areas for future policy efforts [2][8][46] - Fiscal policies are set to directly reach consumer endpoints, with significant increases in personal consumption loan interest subsidies, raising the cap from 500 yuan to 3000 yuan, and including credit card installment payments [2][46] - The central bank has lowered the interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points to guide down financing costs [2][46] Group 2 - The article outlines six specific policies aimed at stimulating private investment, including loan interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises, a special guarantee plan for private investment, and a risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds [3][11][47] - In 2025, the new loans for residents significantly decreased to 360 billion yuan, a drop of 22,910 billion yuan compared to 2024, indicating a need for expanded personal consumption loan interest subsidies [3][48] - The fixed asset investment in 2025 saw a decline of 3.8%, with equipment purchases being a major growth driver, showing an increase of 11.8% [4][17][48] Group 3 - The policies aim to stabilize financial data and stimulate consumer demand, with fiscal interest subsidies expected to help commercial banks maintain their net interest margins while increasing credit supply [26][50] - The expansion of the interest subsidy range for personal consumption loans is anticipated to stabilize consumer spending, particularly in service consumption, as the demand shifts towards services [30][50] - The article highlights the importance of new policy financial tools in supporting new infrastructure investments, with significant increases in investment proportions in core areas like electricity, internet software, and logistics from 2019 to November 2025 [36][21]

Group 1: Fiscal and Financial Policies - The State Council has deployed a package of fiscal and financial policies to promote domestic demand, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and supporting private investment [1][2] - Policies include optimizing service industry loans, personal consumption loan interest subsidies, and establishing special guarantee plans for private investment [1][2] - The aim is to lower financing thresholds and costs for enterprises, particularly small and micro enterprises [1][2] Group 2: Housing Tax Policies - The Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced a tax refund policy for residents who sell and repurchase housing within one year [3][4] - From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, taxpayers can receive a tax refund on the personal income tax paid on the sale of their previous home if they buy a new one in the same city [3][4] Group 3: Government Investment Fund Guidelines - The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines to strengthen the planning and direction of government investment funds [5][6] - Investment areas must align with national productivity layout and support key industries and technological upgrades [5][6] Group 4: New Energy Vehicle Industry Meeting - A meeting was held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the State Administration for Market Regulation to discuss the regulation of the new energy vehicle industry [7][8] - The focus is on promoting quality and fair competition while resisting disorderly price wars [7][8] Group 5: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The central bank announced a 25 basis point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates to support high-quality economic development [9][10] - New policies include increasing the loan quotas for agricultural support, small enterprises, and technological innovation, as well as lowering the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30% [9][10] Group 6: Enterprise Annuity Policies - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance released opinions to encourage enterprises to establish annuity plans [11][12] - Employers can contribute up to 8% of the total wages of employees participating in the annuity plan, with a combined contribution limit of 12% [11][12]

Core Viewpoints - The three major changes are the improvement in service consumption, the easing of the "crowding-out effect" from debt reduction, and the recovery of new economic vitality [1][3][94]. GDP Analysis - The GDP for Q4 2025 recorded a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, matching market expectations, despite a high base effect [1][4][96]. - The actual GDP growth on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis increased to 1.2%, up from 1.1% in Q3 [1][94]. - The secondary industry value-added growth rate fell significantly, reflecting weakened fixed investment and declining commodity consumption [1][4][94]. Consumption Insights - Retail sales in December showed a year-on-year decline of 0.4 percentage points to 0.9%, primarily due to a drop in retail sales of goods below a certain threshold [2][6][13]. - Service retail sales improved, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%, indicating a recovery in non-food service consumption [2][14][94]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 1.2 percentage points to -13.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing and real estate investments also declining [6][19][95]. - The easing of the special refinancing bond issuance ratio has led to a positive improvement in infrastructure investment [19][95]. - The decline in investment is largely attributed to corporate debt repayment policies, which, while negatively impacting current investment, may benefit future cash flow [3][19][95]. Production Developments - Industrial value-added growth in December rose by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2%, with significant recovery in sectors with high "new momentum" such as pharmaceuticals and specialized equipment [2][37][52]. - Traditional sectors like automotive production showed a decline, reflecting the impact of intensified anti-involution policies [37][94]. Summary of Economic Structure Changes - The economic structure is increasingly differentiated during the policy transition, with traditional indicators showing weakness not necessarily indicating a lack of positive changes [3][46][94]. - The shift in consumption policies from goods to services has resulted in a decline in commodity consumption indicators, while service consumption indicators have shown significant growth [3][46][94].

Key Points - The article discusses the recent trends in major asset classes, highlighting the rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and the concurrent increase in gold and silver prices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced slight declines of 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.0 basis points to 4.24% [2][3] - The article notes a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which fell to $777.1 billion as of January 14, 2026, and a decline in net issuance of U.S. debt, with a rolling net issuance of -$9.23 million [2][62] - The U.S. December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the anticipated 0.3%. This has led to increased market speculation regarding Kevin Walsh as a potential candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair [2][84] - The article highlights that U.S. retail sales in November exceeded expectations, rising by 0.6% month-on-month, driven by significant improvements in motor vehicle sales and dining services, indicating resilience in consumer spending [2][85] - The article also mentions that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were lower than market expectations, with 198,000 claims reported, compared to the anticipated 215,000 [2][88]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 进入2026年，美国经济能见度并未因宽松预期而变得更清晰，市场对美国2026年经济的分歧仍较大。主 要机构如何看待2026年美国增速，争议点有哪些，哪些认知误区尚待辨明？ 一、热点思考：美国经济的共识与分歧——基于74家机构调查 （一）2026美国经济存在哪些争议？最大分歧在政策端 进入2026年，主流机构对美国经济方向仍然存在争议。 我们总结74家研究机构对2026美国GDP增速的看 法，发现预测范围落在0.8%-2.9%的宽幅区间。48家机构认为2026年美国GDP增速将上升，占比65%；20 家机构认为增速将下降，占比27%；另有6家认为增速将持平。 看多美国经济的主要理由为财政、货币宽松，看空的理由包括关税、通胀、就业、财政债务拖累等。 市 场仅对美国就业、地产观点较为一致，其他领域均有分歧。海外机构分歧较大的领域集中在财政政策的 判断上，提及总频次26次，多空比15:11，普遍担忧政策可能被提前透支。 （二）主流机构存在哪些认知误区？2025年政策未被透支，2026增量可能被低估 误区之一是认为《美丽大法案》以延长存量减税为主，增量 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the strong performance of equipment investment in 2024, attributing it to broad infrastructure and service sector investments rather than the "Juglar cycle" or "two new" policies [2][3] - It highlights the driving forces behind this investment growth, including the establishment of a modern industrial system and energy transition in central and western regions [2][3] - The sustainability of this high growth in equipment investment is projected to continue into 2026, supported by policies related to modernization, carbon reduction, and human investment [3] Group 1: Equipment Investment Insights - Equipment investment growth in 2024 is not primarily due to the "Juglar cycle" or "two new" policies, but rather strong performance in broad infrastructure and service sector investments [2] - The driving forces for this growth include the establishment of a modern industrial system and energy transition efforts in central and western regions, alongside increased fiscal spending on research and improvements in service sector demand [2][3] - The sustainability of high growth in equipment investment is expected to persist into 2026, with potential rebounds in digital infrastructure, carbon reduction equipment, and consumer-related infrastructure investments [3]

| 领导人 | 时间 | 调研城市 | 调研领域 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 科技创新(深港科技 创新合作区、比亚 | 李强提出科技创新是赢得未来的关键所在。要强化企业创新主体地位,完 | | | | | | 善改策、资金、人才等支持... 瞄准新兴领域和关键核心技术加强研发合作 ... | | | | | 迪) | | | | | 深圳 | 低空经济、机器人、 | | | | | | 企业技术转化应用、 | 李强指出,科技的生命在于应用,要进一步完善产业生态,培育拓展应用 | | | | | 产业集群发展(深圳 | 场景,探索有效的经营模式,推动机器人、无人机等新技术新产品在扩大 | | | | | 蛇口邮轮母港直升 | 应用中加快迭代升级,更好赋能千行百业、造福千家万户。 | | 李强(国务 | 2026/ 1/3-20 | | 机场和机器人谷) | | | 院总理) | 26/1/5 | | 交通基础建设 (深中通道) | 要充分运用先进技术,管好用好交通要道,确保安全、顺畅运行,更好促 | | | | | | 进大湾区互联互通、协同 ...

摘要 核心观点：M2与M1增速差走阔源于财政"错位"，及居民对资本市场配置更趋稳定 2025年12月M2与M1增速剪刀差连续三月走阔，核心因政府债净融资"错位"及居民对资本市场配置稳定 性增强。 2024年11月大规模化债注流动性，2025年化债前置支撑上半年M1增长，年末M1乏力。M2年末 增速跳升的主因在于居民对资本市场配置的稳定性强化，这一特征具体表现为：2024年末非银存款曾大 幅流出，而2025年末非银存款变动已回归常态。 居民贷款表现偏弱，或与BCI企业招工前瞻指数持续低位、房地产价格波动相关。 12月居民贷款同比少 增4416亿元，已连续六月少增。2025年11月70城二手住宅价较6月跌3.1个百分点，12月百城二手住宅挂 牌均价较6月跌8.1个百分点，或加剧居民贷款审慎态。 企业中长贷同比增速时隔31个月反弹，新型政策性金融工具或持续撬动。 2025年12月企业中长贷新增 3300亿元，余额同比增速回升0.3个百分点至7.9%（2023年6月以来首次），改善或源于工具撬动作用显 现及2024年末隐性债务偿还形成的低基数。 政府债净融资年末"错位"是拖累社融首要因素。2025年12月政府债同比少 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the early meetings held by various regions after New Year's Day to outline key work for the year, highlighting differences in regional focus and potential economic space in early 2026 [1]. Group 1: Central Government Initiatives - The central government has increased investment ahead of schedule, with the National Development and Reform Commission issuing a list of early construction projects for 2026, totaling 295 billion yuan, an increase of 95 billion yuan compared to 2025 [2][9]. - The "two heavy" projects will receive 220 billion yuan, focusing on urban underground pipelines and high-standard farmland, while central budget investments exceed 75 billion yuan, targeting urban renewal and water conservancy [2][9]. - The "old-for-new" policy has been refined, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds issued 10 days earlier than in 2025, supporting consumer goods replacement [2][12]. Group 2: Local Government Responses - Many regions have moved their "New Year First Meetings" to after New Year's Day, emphasizing early initiation of key work for the year, contrasting with 2025 when most meetings were held after the Spring Festival [4][16]. - Regions like Shanghai and Fujian focus on optimizing the business environment and boosting confidence in the private economy, with specific measures to eliminate market entry barriers and address overdue payments [4][19]. - Core cities such as Hubei, Nanjing, and Suzhou are concentrating on cultivating new productivity, while Zhejiang and Henan are focusing on stabilizing investment to support growth [4][19]. Group 3: Economic Potential and Tracking Indicators - The postponement of the Spring Festival by 19 days in 2026 creates a pattern of "heavy production and investment in January, heavy consumption in February," aligning with the central government's emphasis on early economic work [5][22]. - Since 2019, the proportion of actual GDP in the first quarter has increased by an average of 0.1 percentage points annually, indicating the importance of early economic performance [5][26]. - The fiscal front is accelerating, with local government debt issuance in January expected to increase by approximately 340 billion yuan compared to the previous year, with 24 provinces planning to issue 257.78 billion yuan in new debt [7][35].

Core Viewpoint - The December export performance was supported by pricing effects, new product launches, and improvements in external demand, with exports increasing by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, surpassing expectations of 2.2% and the previous value of 5.9% [2][9][79] Group 1: Export Performance - December exports showed a strong performance, reflecting both structural and aggregate factors, with a 0.7 percentage point increase from November [2][10] - The appreciation of the RMB since November contributed to a pricing effect that boosted December's total exports by 0.4 percentage points [2][10] - Exports of consumer electronics and production materials improved significantly, driven by new smartphone launches and a trend of recovering external demand, particularly from emerging economies and U.S. inventory replenishment [2][3][10] Group 2: Country-Level Analysis - Exports to emerging economies remained strong, with a 1.4 percentage point increase to 13.5% year-on-year, while exports to developed economies showed a decline [2][17] - Notable increases in exports to ASEAN and India were recorded, with respective rises of 2.9 and 14 percentage points [2][17] - Exports to the U.S. decreased slightly by 1.5 percentage points, while exports to Europe fell by 3.3 percentage points [2][17] Group 3: Commodity-Level Insights - Consumer electronics exports rose by 16.3 percentage points to 19.6%, with significant contributions from smartphone and data processing equipment exports [3][25] - Production materials such as aluminum, integrated circuits, and steel saw export growth rates of 23.9%, 13.6%, and 3.5% respectively [3][25] - Import data indicated a recovery in processing trade imports, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8 percentage points to 5.7% [3][32] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing improvement in external demand and China's competitive export advantages are expected to sustain strong export resilience into 2026 [4][40] - The industrialization acceleration in emerging countries is anticipated to increase demand for imported production materials, further supporting China's export growth [4][40] - Potential easing of U.S.-China tariff tensions and continued inventory replenishment in the U.S. may lead to a rebound in exports to the U.S. [4][41]