Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court held oral arguments on November 5 regarding Trump's IEEPA reciprocal tariffs, with a majority of justices (6 out of 9) leaning towards declaring the tariffs illegal, raising concerns about the future of U.S. trade policy and capital markets [1][6][34] - The likelihood of the reciprocal tariffs being ruled illegal has increased, with potential outcomes including a ruling of illegality with delayed implementation to allow for government adjustment, partial illegality focusing on specific tariffs like those on fentanyl, or a ruling upholding the legality of the tariffs [6][11][12] Group 2 - If the reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, Trump may resort to existing tariff laws such as Sections 232, 301, and 338, with a low probability of widespread tax refunds and a higher chance of targeted refunds [2][35] - The current tariff structure shows that reciprocal tariffs account for 45% of U.S. tariff revenue, with projections indicating a potential 25% decrease in tariff revenue if the reciprocal tariffs are invalidated [3][19][29] Group 3 - The U.S. effective tariff rate stands at 9.75%, with the highest rates applied to Chinese imports at 40.4%, and if the reciprocal tariffs are ruled illegal, the overall tariff levels may not reach previous heights, potentially dropping to 7.3% [27][29][36] - The anticipated tariff revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is approximately $195.9 billion, with significant contributions from various tariff categories, including $89 billion from reciprocal tariffs and $35.1 billion from Section 301 tariffs [19][31]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown after a bipartisan agreement, impacting 670,000 federal employees who were furloughed, while 1.52 million continued to work without pay [52][53]. - The U.S. ADP employment data for October exceeded expectations, with an increase of 42,000 jobs compared to the forecast of 30,000, alleviating concerns about economic weakness [65][67]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for October fell to 48.7, indicating contraction, while the services PMI rose to 52.4, suggesting stability in the employment market [61][65]. Group 2 - Global stock indices mostly declined, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and the Nasdaq down 3.0%, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% [2][3]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained stable at 4.11%, while yields in other developed markets increased, such as France's 10-year yield rising to 3.46% [17][21]. - The dollar index decreased by 0.2% to 99.55, with most currencies appreciating against the dollar, including the euro and yen [25][32]. Group 3 - Commodity prices mostly fell, with WTI crude oil down 2.0% to $59.8 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.2% to $63.6 per barrel [36][41]. - Precious metals showed mixed performance, with COMEX gold remaining stable at $3,995.2 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell by 1.4% to $48.0 per ounce [41][45]. - The prices of industrial metals also declined, with LME copper down 1.6% to $10,744 per ton [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an in-depth analysis of China's macroeconomic situation, highlighting the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead for the economy and wealth management sector [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - China's GDP growth is projected to be around 5% for the upcoming year, indicating a stable yet cautious recovery from previous economic disruptions [1] - The inflation rate is expected to remain controlled, with estimates around 2% to 3%, which will support consumer spending and investment [1] - The government is likely to implement further fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate growth, focusing on infrastructure and technology sectors [1] Group 2: Wealth Management Sector - The wealth management industry in China is anticipated to grow significantly, with assets under management (AUM) expected to reach approximately 200 trillion yuan by 2025 [1] - Regulatory changes are being introduced to enhance transparency and protect investors, which may lead to increased confidence in the wealth management products [1] - The demand for diversified investment products is rising, driven by high-net-worth individuals seeking better returns amid low-interest rates [1]

Economic Analysis - The report emphasizes the increasing external instability and uncertainty, highlighting severe challenges to the international economic and trade order [2][20] - The global economic growth momentum has been adjusted from "weak" to "insufficient," indicating heightened concerns about the global economic outlook [2][20] - Domestic economic recovery is still facing risks, but there is a recognition that the foundation for recovery needs to be strengthened [20][21] Policy Framework - The monetary policy stance has shifted from "implementing detailed moderate easing" to "implementing effective moderate easing," focusing on the effectiveness of policies [3][21] - The report introduces the use of various tools to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, emphasizing coordination with fiscal policy [3][21] - Structural monetary policy tools will be effectively implemented to support key areas such as technological innovation and small and micro enterprises [7][21] Exchange Rate and Risk Management - The report reiterates the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility and enhancing expectation guidance [3][22] - The omission of previous warnings about preventing fund circularity suggests that related risks may have been controlled [3][22] Key Topics - The analysis of financial aggregate indicators indicates that the growth of social financing and money supply is generally aligned with nominal economic growth, with a slight lag in loan growth being reasonable [8][23] - The report discusses the long-term impacts of financial market development and structural changes on monetary aggregates and financial regulation [23] - Future plans include developing a financial technology development plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan period to support high-quality economic development [23] Interest Rate Relationships - The report highlights the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships across various dimensions, including central bank policy rates and market rates [23]

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, compared to -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year [1][9] Factors Influencing Inflation - **Factor One**: The anti-involution effect has led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI is limited. In contrast, copper prices, which are less affected by anti-involution, saw a larger increase, contributing significantly to the PPI [2][10][60] - **Factor Two**: The CPI's rise above zero is attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution impact [2][17][61] - **Factor Three**: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core service CPI showed better performance than seasonal trends due to holiday travel [3][24][30][62] Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the anti-involution effect on downstream prices may take time to manifest. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, while non-food items like household appliances and communication tools saw a decline [5][40][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal expectations. However, rental prices remained weak compared to previous years [7][52][63]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 11 . 1 - 11 . 7 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 美国信贷市场，风险几何？ 2、 热点思考 | 短期经济会否"超预期"？ 高频跟踪 1、海外高频 | 中美达成贸易协议，黄金连续两周回调 2、国内高频 | 港口货运量大幅上行 3、数据点评 | 出口骤降的"隐藏线索"？ 电话会议 1、"周见系列" 第55期: 《关税"变局"?》 2、"洞见系列" 第101期: 《美国信货市场，风险几何?》 3、"速见系列" 第11期: 《为何10月出口大幅下行?》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 美国信贷市场，风险几何？ 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.11.2 区域性银行风波会否延续、美国信贷市场还有哪些暗藏的风险？ | 类别 | 单位(%) | | 经济月度数据 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年8月 | 2025年9月 | 2025年10月(预测 | | | 实际GDP | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | ...

Core Viewpoints - October export decline is not primarily due to weakening external demand, but rather short-term supply disruptions, which are now dissipating [3][10][65] - The significant drop in exports in October is influenced by a high base effect and a reduction in working days, with a month-on-month decline of 7.1% compared to a seasonal expectation of 3.2% [3][10][65] - Exports to emerging economies, such as ASEAN and Africa, have seen a notable slowdown, while demand from countries like Vietnam and Thailand has shown improvement [3][10][11] Import Analysis - October imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year to 1%, reflecting supply disruptions, particularly in processing trade, which fell from 12% in September to 4.6% in October [4][23][66] - The surge in port freight volumes in late October indicates that supply disruptions are easing, with exports from countries like Vietnam and South Korea showing significant recovery [4][27][66] Future Outlook - With the easing of US-China trade tensions and the recovery of supply chains, November export growth is expected to rebound [5][67] - The differentiation in export performance to developed economies, particularly a recovery in exports to the US, suggests potential for continued growth in exports [5][67] Regular Tracking - In October, both exports and imports saw declines, with consumer electronics and light industrial products experiencing significant drops in export growth [6][68] - Capital goods exports showed mixed results, with general machinery and medical instruments declining, while shipbuilding exports increased [6][42][68] - Import growth for mechanical and electrical products and bulk commodities also decreased, with notable declines in automatic data processing equipment [6][54][68]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of industrial production, construction, and demand trends in China, highlighting a mixed performance across various sectors, with some showing signs of recovery while others remain weak. Industrial Production Tracking - The operating rate of blast furnaces has significantly declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 3% to 81.7%, and a year-on-year drop of 3.3 percentage points [2][6] - Steel apparent consumption has increased by 2.7% week-on-week and returned to positive territory year-on-year, up 2.9 percentage points to 2.8% [2][8] - Social inventory continues to decline, down 2.1% week-on-week [2] Construction Industry Insights - Cement production and demand have shown slight improvement but remain weaker than the same period last year, with a grinding operating rate up 1% to 46.3% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points [24][25] - Cement shipment rates increased by 0.8% week-on-week but are down 8.8% year-on-year [24][28] - The cement inventory ratio continues to rise, up 2.3% week-on-week [24][31] Demand Tracking - The transaction volume of commercial housing continues to decline, with a week-on-week drop of 11.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.3 percentage points to -25% [47][48] - The average daily transaction area in 30 major cities has seen significant declines, particularly in first-tier cities, which experienced a year-on-year drop of 20.1 percentage points [47][51] - Port cargo throughput has rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [57][64] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing mixed performance, with vegetable prices rising by 8.1% week-on-week, while pork and egg prices have decreased by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively [99][100] - The overall industrial product prices are on the rise, with the South China Industrial Product Price Index increasing by 1.8% week-on-week [111][112]

Economic Activity Changes - Economic activity has faced new pressures on both supply and demand sides since October, with a decrease in working days and high inventory levels constraining production [2][8] - The manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with production indices declining more than new orders [2][8] - Demand pressure is particularly evident in the manufacturing sector, as companies accelerate debt repayments, which negatively impacts fixed asset investment [2][19] Profitability and Cost Pressures - Excluding low base effects, industrial profits are weaker than in previous years, with the overall cost rate at a historical high of 85.4% [3][30] - In September, industrial profits increased by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5%, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9% [3][30] - The increase in profits is primarily driven by short-term indicators, while long-term cost pressures continue to rise, affecting profit sustainability [3][30] Policy Measures to Mitigate Growth Pressure - The introduction of new incremental policies aims to alleviate the investment squeeze caused by debt resolution efforts, with significant financial tools being deployed [4][38] - As of mid-October, nearly 300 billion yuan in new policy financial tools have been issued, focusing on infrastructure and emerging sectors [4][38] - The proportion of special refinancing bonds in new special bonds decreased from 56.9% to 16.7%, indicating a shift in funding allocation [4][38] Consumption Trends - The anticipation of the "Double Eleven" shopping festival is expected to temporarily boost retail sales, with a projected rebound of 3.4% in October [4][49] - Service consumption remains resilient, with holiday spending showing a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, surpassing goods consumption growth of 3.6% [4][49] - However, retail sales may weaken post-festival due to high base effects and consumer demand being "overdrawn" [4][49] Export Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in US-China tariffs have led to a "rush to export," potentially supporting October's export figures, which are expected to maintain resilience at 7% year-on-year [4][59] - The threat of a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods by the US has prompted increased export activity, with port freight volumes rising by 18% in the last week of October [4][59] - The recovery in processing trade imports also supports the outlook for exports, indicating ongoing demand for Chinese goods [4][59] Monthly Data Performance - The PPI is expected to recover slightly to around -2.1% in October, driven by rising prices in upstream commodities despite low capacity utilization in downstream sectors [5][73] - CPI is projected to rise above 0% due to low base effects and resilient service consumption, with an expected recovery to 0.4% year-on-year [5][81] - The actual GDP growth for October is estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth despite supply-side constraints and demand-side risks [6][94]

Group 1 - The recent loan fraud cases disclosed by two regional banks in the U.S. have raised concerns about the credit market, but the immediate market reaction has not persisted [2][6][84] - On October 16, Zion Bank reported a loss of $50 million due to loan fraud, while Western Alliance Bank disclosed a similar case, leading to a 6.7% drop in the regional bank index and a 3.1% rise in gold prices [2][6][84] - The current situation is not directly comparable to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, as the involved banks are smaller, and the issues appear to be isolated incidents rather than systemic risks [2][16][22] Group 2 - Concerns about private credit markets have emerged, with the potential for "cockroach effects" as credit quality deteriorates and loan conditions tighten [3][32][85] - The default rate for private credit remains low, around 1.8% as of mid-2025, and the risk of contagion is considered manageable due to the nature of private loans [3][40][44] - However, signs of stress are evident, particularly with an increase in non-stressed PIK loans, indicating worsening cash flows among borrowers [3][44][85] Group 3 - Commercial real estate and consumer credit risks are significant concerns, with the CMBS delinquency rate reaching a historical high of 11.8% in August 2025 [4][53][86] - The office vacancy rate in the U.S. hit a record high of 18.4% by mid-2025, exacerbating the challenges in the commercial real estate sector [4][53][86] - Consumer credit risks are also rising, particularly among low-income groups, with delinquency rates for auto loans and credit cards reaching near historical highs [4][61][86]