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海外高频 | 关税豁免即将到期,警惕关税升级风险(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-07-06 14:35
关税豁免即将到期,警惕关税升级风险。 7月9日,美国进口商品的90天"关税暂停"即将到期。贝森特6月 27日接受采访时表示,约20个谈判进展缓慢的国家将可能被恢复4月2日的初始对等关税税率,只有被认 定"诚意协商"的伙伴才有望继续获得关税豁免延长。 美国6月非农数据强于市场预期,联储7月降息概率下降。 美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人,失业率回落至 4.1%,主要驱动力为州及地方政府就业增加。市场对联储7月降息预期降温,9月降息为基准假设。鲍威 尔在欧洲央行辛特拉论坛上发言,表示关税对通胀效果或在夏天显现。 风险提示 关注、加星,第一时间接收推送! 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美国三大股指集体上涨,美债利率快速回升。 当周,标普500上涨1.6%,道琼斯工业指数上涨2.3%;10Y 美债收益率上行6.0bp至4.4%;美元指数下跌0.3%至96.99,离岸人民币升值至7.1701;WTI原油上涨1.5% 至66.5美元/桶,COMEX黄金上涨1.9%至3332.5美元/盎司。 报告正文 地缘政治冲突升级;美国经济放缓超预期;美联储超预期转"鹰" 一、 大类资产&海外事件&数据: (一) ...
申万宏观·周度研究成果(6.28-7.4)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-07-05 05:44
Core Insights - The article discusses the need for a long-term mechanism to stimulate consumption, shifting from subsidy-driven approaches to institutional innovation [8] - It highlights the importance of reducing burdens and increasing income for residents to boost marginal consumption tendencies [8] Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The article emphasizes the transition from subsidies to institutional innovations as a means to create a sustainable consumption stimulus mechanism [8] - It suggests that continuous efforts to reduce financial burdens and enhance income for residents are fundamental to improving consumption [8] Group 2: Hot Topics - The article raises concerns about the potential rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.6%, analyzing the implications of tariffs and the associated risks of economic downturns [11] - It discusses the inflationary effects of tariffs and the upward risks of employment weakening, indicating a need for vigilance in economic policy [11] Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article reports on the Senate's passage of the "Beautiful Act," which is expected to lead to a new round of fiscal easing in the U.S. [13] - It provides a detailed breakdown of the fiscal implications of the act, including various tax cuts and their projected impacts on the budget [14] Group 4: Economic Policy Insights - The second quarter monetary policy committee meeting highlighted the need for continued support for the real estate market and key sectors [15] - The meeting concluded that macroeconomic adjustments should focus on maintaining stable economic growth and reasonable price levels, with an emphasis on flexible monetary policy [15] Group 5: Economic Indicators - The June PMI data indicates a recovery in manufacturing sentiment, although corporate expectations have declined [17] - The article suggests that while the overall economic environment shows improvement, attention should be paid to changes in microeconomic expectations [17] Group 6: International Trade Developments - The article notes that the U.S. has officially signed a trade agreement with China, which may have significant implications for international trade dynamics [19]
如何看待参议院通过《美丽大法案》?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-07-02 14:44
Legislative Progress - The "Beautiful Act" has passed the Senate with a narrow margin of 51 to 50, entering the final legislative phase [1][13] - The bill will undergo review in the House of Representatives, with potential for further amendments [1][13] - Three possible timelines for final passage: before July 4, mid-July, or late July to August [2][13] Content Adjustments - The Senate version increases the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, $550 billion more than the House version [2][14] - Corporate tax cuts are expanded while personal tax cuts are reduced, favoring high-income earners [2][14] - Significant cuts to healthcare and welfare spending, with medical assistance cuts increasing from $800 billion to $930 billion [3][14] Economic Impact - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to moderately boost the U.S. economy, potentially increasing annual GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027 [4][15] - The lowest 20% of income households may see a 2.9% decrease in income, while the highest 20% could experience a 1.9% increase [5][15] - Capital-intensive industries (manufacturing, data centers) are likely to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges due to reduced tax incentives [5][15]
如何构建促消费长效机制:从补贴驱动到制度创新(申万宏观 · 赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-07-01 05:10
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" as a key macroeconomic policy in China, especially under the dual challenges of stabilizing growth and external pressures. It advocates for a combination of short-term stimulus measures and long-term structural reforms to enhance consumer capacity and confidence [1][2]. Summary by Sections Historical Consumption Tools - China's past consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies and indirect support measures. Direct subsidies include rural subsidies, trade-in subsidies, and consumption vouchers, while indirect measures involve tax reductions and fee exemptions [3]. - Significant past initiatives include the "home appliance and vehicle going to the countryside" policies from 2007 to 2012, and the promotion of electric vehicle consumption through tax exemptions since 2018 [3][4]. Effectiveness of Consumption Promotion - The first round of home appliance and vehicle policies yielded substantial results, with a total subsidy of 76.5 billion yuan leading to sales of 659.76 billion yuan, achieving a fiscal multiplier of 8.6. Sales of home appliances and vehicles saw significant year-on-year increases during this period [6][7]. - The current "trade-in" policy has shown remarkable effects, with sales of home appliances increasing by 39% year-on-year in December 2024, driven by enhanced fiscal support and expanded subsidy coverage [9]. Service Consumption Recovery - Service consumption still has considerable room for recovery compared to goods consumption, with a notable gap from pre-2019 levels. The article suggests that expanding consumption policies to include services could accelerate this recovery [10]. - Improving residents' leisure time through optimized holiday policies and encouraging paid leave can further stimulate service consumption [10]. Long-term Mechanisms for Consumption - To sustain consumption recovery, it is essential to focus on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents. Current measures include lowering mortgage rates and providing rental subsidies for new residents and young people [11]. - Structural reforms in income distribution and social security systems are crucial for long-term consumption growth. For instance, increasing pension levels and implementing child-rearing subsidies could significantly enhance consumer spending capacity [11][12]. Targeted Support for Key Demographics - The article highlights the need for targeted support for vulnerable groups, particularly the elderly and children, to stimulate consumption in essential categories such as food and healthcare [12]. - A comprehensive analysis of consumption policies indicates that effective consumption stimulation requires a combination of short-term effectiveness and long-term structural mechanisms, focusing on collaborative promotion of goods and services [13].
6月PMI:现实强于预期(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-06-30 08:22
Core Viewpoint - Manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, but corporate expectations have dropped to a low level; increased policy support is needed to monitor changes in micro expectations [3][6][100] Manufacturing Sector - June manufacturing PMI improved to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, exceeding market expectations of 49.3% [2][10] - The production and new orders indices both rose, reaching 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating expansion [3][10] - The new orders index showed slight improvement, with domestic demand orders recovering more than new export orders [22][98] - High-frequency indicators reveal a year-on-year decline in foreign trade cargo volume, indicating reduced export strength [22][98] Industry Analysis - High-energy-consuming industries saw a significant PMI increase, rising 0.8 percentage points to 47.8%, driven by investment and ongoing infrastructure projects [4][28] - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also benefited from domestic demand, with PMIs rising to 51.4% and 50.4% respectively [4][28] - Food and beverage, as well as specialized equipment sectors, have maintained production and new order indices in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [4][28] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating rapid progress in infrastructure projects [31][99] - The civil engineering PMI reached 56.7%, remaining in a high prosperity range for three consecutive months [31][99] - In contrast, the real estate sector's construction progress appears slower, with weak performance in cement and rebar consumption [31][99] Service Sector - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to the fading effects of holiday consumption [5][42] - Business activity indices in retail, transportation, and hospitality sectors showed varying degrees of decline, reflecting reduced market activity [5][42] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications and financial services maintained high business activity indices above 60% [5][42] Future Outlook - There are risks of weakening manufacturing sentiment, necessitating close attention to the impact of incremental policies on domestic demand and changes in corporate expectations [6][100] - Despite the recovery in production and new orders, the corporate expectation index has fallen to its lowest level in 2023 at 52% [6][100] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, may support corporate and consumer expectations [6][100]
对地产和物价的关注度提升——2025年二季度货币政策委员会例会解读
申万宏源宏观· 2025-06-30 08:22
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has expressed a positive outlook on the economy, highlighting the recovery of social confidence, while also acknowledging challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and persistently low prices [4][9]. Economic Situation Analysis - The PBOC has rated the economic performance in the first half of the year highly, stating that "the economy shows a positive trend, and social confidence continues to be boosted" [4][9]. - The meeting noted the ongoing issue of "insufficient domestic demand" and introduced the concern of "persistently low prices," indicating a shift in focus towards price control strategies [4][9]. - The monetary policy approach will be flexible, adapting to economic conditions and expectations, with an emphasis on dynamic responses in policy implementation [4][9]. Monetary Policy Thoughts - The PBOC aims to "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation," suggesting a more responsive approach to economic data [4][9]. - The previous stance of "timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts" has been adjusted to reflect current economic performance and the ongoing implementation of new financial tools [4][9]. Exchange Rate and Bond Market - The PBOC has removed strong language regarding market management, indicating confidence in the current exchange rate, which has appreciated from 7.30 to 7.17 against the USD from the end of 2025 to June 27, 2025 [5][10]. - The meeting reiterated the importance of monitoring the bond market and preventing capital turnover, maintaining a cautious stance on potential unilateral price increases in the bond market [5][10]. Key Issues - The PBOC emphasized the need to "continuously consolidate the stability of the real estate market," in response to declining sales in the second quarter [5][10]. - There is a clear intention to support key areas such as technology innovation and consumption, with new financial tools expected to be introduced to facilitate this support [6][11]. Capital Market Stability - The PBOC has reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining capital market stability, noting positive market performance in the second quarter and the effectiveness of targeted tools [7][11]. - The meeting highlighted the use of various financial instruments to support market stability, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining investor confidence [7][11].
热点思考 | 如果美国失业率升至4.6%?——关税“压力测试”系列之十三(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-06-29 13:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by tariff impacts and economic slowdown [3][89] Group 2 - Tariffs are projected to have a more significant impact on the U.S. job market compared to previous tariff measures, particularly affecting the manufacturing sector [3][65] - According to Okun's Law, a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a direct correlation between economic performance and employment levels [3][89] - The article discusses the potential for the Sahm Rule to signal a recession if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, as historical data suggests a strong correlation between rising unemployment and economic downturns [4][99][100] Group 3 - The article notes that the current labor market is in a "loosened" phase, with increasing unemployment driven by demand-side weaknesses, making it difficult for new entrants to find jobs [17][24] - The impact of immigration policies on the labor market is significant, with reduced immigration potentially exacerbating employment challenges in certain sectors [40][47] - The article emphasizes that the current economic environment, characterized by declining wage growth and rising unemployment, differs from previous periods, suggesting a more complex relationship between tariffs and employment [77][81]
海外高频 | 美方宣布已与中国签署正式贸易协议(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-06-29 13:24
Group 1 - The article highlights that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new highs, while the US dollar index weakened significantly, dropping by 1.5% to 97.26 [1][2] - The US and China signed a formal trade agreement, which includes China lifting its ban on rare earth exports and the US canceling export bans on ethane, chip software, and jet engines [1][64] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed divided views on interest rate cuts, with some supporting a cut in July while others advocated for a wait-and-see approach [1][70] Group 2 - The article reports that major developed market indices, including the Nikkei 225 and Nasdaq, saw significant increases of 4.6% and 4.2% respectively [2] - Emerging market indices also showed positive performance, with the Cairo CASE30 index rising by 9.1% [2] - The article notes that the majority of sectors in the S&P 500 experienced gains, particularly communication services, information technology, and consumer discretionary, which rose by 6.2%, 4.7%, and 4.4% respectively [8] Group 3 - The article mentions that the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 9 basis points to 4.3%, while yields in other developed countries showed mixed results [20] - Emerging market 10-year Treasury yields displayed varied movements, with Vietnam's yield rising by 2 basis points to 3.3% [26] - The article indicates that the US dollar index's decline led to appreciation of other currencies, including the British pound and euro, which rose by 2.0% and 1.7% respectively [32] Group 4 - The article states that WTI crude oil prices fell by 11.3% to $65.5 per barrel, while other commodities like焦煤 (coking coal) increased by 6.6% to 848 yuan per ton [46] - The performance of base metals was generally positive, with LME copper rising by 2.1% to $9,855 per ton [53] - The article also notes that inflation expectations decreased by 4 basis points to 2.3% [57]
申万宏观·周度研究成果(6.21-6.27)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-06-28 04:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential investment opportunities in the context of the new "three trillion" investment, focusing on the transition of demand towards the service sector as GDP per capita reaches between $10,000 and $30,000, while highlighting the current supply constraints in services and the investment gap that exists [4]. Group 1: Deep Topics - The article emphasizes the need for investment in human capital to bridge the existing investment gap in the service sector [4]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article analyzes the contrasting expectations and realities of inflation in the U.S. following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, questioning whether inflation will resurge in the latter half of the year [8]. - It discusses the key areas of focus for the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period leading to the 2035 vision, outlining the progress and potential priorities [10]. - The article addresses the implications of Iran's parliamentary decision to block the Strait of Hormuz, assessing the credibility of such threats and their potential market impacts [13]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - Domestic shipping prices have been continuously rising, indicating a recovery in port freight volumes despite weak overall infrastructure construction [15]. - In the U.S., the recent bond auction performed better than expected, while retail sales in May fell short of forecasts, reflecting mixed economic signals [20]. - The article outlines various recent domestic policy initiatives aimed at enhancing financial market regulation and promoting digital currency operations, including the establishment of a personal credit agency and offshore trade financial services [22].
利润修复的“波折期”?——5月工业企业效益数据点评(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-06-28 04:28
Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in profits is primarily due to increased cost and expense pressures, with short-term profit recovery remaining highly uncertain [3][72]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In May, industrial profits saw a substantial year-on-year decline of 11.9 percentage points to 9%, driven by rising cost and expense pressures [3][72]. - The contribution of actual operating revenue to profit growth decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2 percentage points to 4.2%, contributing only 3.4% to overall profit growth [3][72]. - The overall revenue growth for industrial enterprises fell by 1.8 percentage points to 0.8% in May, with significant declines in sectors such as agricultural products, chemical fibers, and rubber plastics [49][74]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Profit Margin - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.9%, up 40 basis points year-on-year, with the coal and steel sector experiencing a notable increase in cost rates [17][72]. - The cost rate for the coal and metallurgy chain rose significantly, reflecting a recovery in upstream costs due to falling coal and steel prices, while downstream improvements were limited [17][72]. - The profit margin for industrial enterprises decreased, with a year-on-year drop of 10.1 percentage points, indicating heightened pressure on profitability [36][74]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - Inventory growth slightly declined, with nominal inventory down 0.4 percentage points to 3.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in demand recovery [59][74]. - Actual inventory, excluding price factors, also fell, down 0.1 percentage points to 7.0% year-on-year, suggesting a need for further demand improvement [59][74]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The coal and metallurgy chain's revenue growth turned negative, declining by 2.8 percentage points to -0.6% due to weak equipment updates and a slowdown in real estate infrastructure [4][73]. - In contrast, the consumer manufacturing chain saw a slight revenue increase, up 0.1 percentage points to 7.8% year-on-year, supported by domestic demand [4][73].