Core Viewpoint - The broad fiscal expenditure continues to slow down, and the fiscal "toolbox" may have various means to counteract downward pressure on the economy [2][3][55] Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [9][55] - In August 2025, broad fiscal revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to July, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 6%, down 6.1 percentage points from July [2][10] - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget for the first eight months was 61.9%, slightly lower than the five-year average of 62.7%, and the expenditure completion rate was 57.3%, also below the five-year average of 58.8% [2][10][55] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Support - The slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure is likely due to the end of the large-scale support phase from government debt financing. As of the end of August, the net financing of national bonds, new general bonds, and new special bonds totaled 8.5 trillion yuan, with a 72% issuance progress, nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024 [2][15][56] - The issuance of special bonds supporting various sectors has largely been completed, indicating that the large-scale support from government debt funds for broad fiscal expenditure is nearing its end [15][56] Group 3: Economic Growth and Future Outlook - The support from fiscal funds for the economy may weaken in the future, as the issuance of new government debt approaches its end, making it difficult for broad fiscal expenditure to maintain high growth rates [3][19] - Factors such as the preemptive demand from "old-for-new" and "equipment updates" have been impacted by promotional activities and a "window period" for national subsidies, leading to a decline in retail growth and investment in equipment purchases [3][19] - Historical experience suggests that fiscal measures may include two types of policies: incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments and new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [24][56] Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure Trends - Government fund revenue has significantly declined, dragging down the growth rate of broad fiscal revenue. In August 2025, government fund revenue fell by 5.7% year-on-year, while general fiscal revenue increased by 2% [2][57] - The decline in government fund expenditure has led to a further decrease in the growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure. In July 2025, broad fiscal expenditure grew by 12.1% year-on-year, down 5.5 percentage points from June [4][41] - The completion rate of government fund expenditure in August 2025 was 6.7%, lower than the five-year average of 7% [50][57]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of multilateralism, open cooperation, and collective development among BRICS nations to address global challenges and promote a fair international order [1][2] - The article outlines three key suggestions from President Xi Jinping: uphold multilateralism to defend international justice, maintain an open and win-win international economic order, and strengthen unity and cooperation among BRICS countries [1][2] Group 2 - Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing's research in Sichuan focuses on promoting the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, enhancing industrial innovation capabilities, and fostering new quality productivity for high-quality development [3][4] - The State Council's approval of the pilot implementation plan for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions aims to break down barriers to the free flow and efficient allocation of resources, including traditional and innovative factors [5][6] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration's implementation opinions on "Artificial Intelligence + Energy" aim to establish a collaborative innovation system by 2027, with a goal of achieving world-leading levels in AI applications within the energy sector by 2030 [7][8] Group 3 - The 17th meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress highlighted the need to implement policies to unleash domestic demand, promote technological and industrial innovation, and ensure coordinated regional development [9][10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, enhancing supply chain resilience, and accelerating the development of emerging industries [11][12] - The State Council's opinions on releasing sports consumption potential aim to build a modern sports industry system, with a target of exceeding 7 trillion yuan in total scale by 2030 [13][14] Group 4 - The "Power Equipment Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" sets a target for traditional power equipment revenue growth to maintain around 6% annually, while ensuring effective supply and promoting key equipment breakthroughs [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant role of fiscal policy in supporting economic resilience in the first half of 2025, with a broad fiscal expenditure growth rate of 8.9%, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.3% [3][10] - Fiscal expenditures in the first half of 2025 showed a front-loaded rhythm and differentiated allocation, with a focus on debt resolution and rapid implementation of special refinancing bonds, amounting to nearly 1.8 trillion yuan [3][22] - Key areas of fiscal support included social security and employment, with expenditures increasing by 9.2% year-on-year, and scientific and technological expenditures rising by 9.1% year-on-year [3][22] Group 2 - The necessity and possibility of increasing fiscal measures in the second half of 2025 are highlighted, especially if economic pressures become evident, with potential adjustments to fiscal policies to meet GDP growth targets [5][40] - The article discusses two categories of fiscal tools for potential increases: one involving incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments, and the other involving new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [6][68] - Historical context is provided regarding past adjustments to fiscal budgets, indicating that significant changes have been infrequent, with the last major adjustment occurring in October 2023 [6][68] Group 3 - Current fiscal priorities are identified as risk prevention, transformation promotion, livelihood protection, and consumption stimulation, with a focus on addressing hidden debt issues at the local government level [7][74] - The article notes that new emerging industries and service sector development are key areas of support, as indicated by recent political meetings emphasizing new pillar industries [7][81] - Specific fiscal measures include the establishment of a childcare subsidy fund with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, aimed at supporting families with children [8][89]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇、赵宇 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 8月以来，金价持续上行、再创历史新高。然而，本轮金价上涨或主由欧美投资者推动，亚盘投资者未 现"接力"。不同区域投资者配置分化的原因、后续演绎对金价的影响？供参考。 热点思考：金价，新高之后的"隐忧"？ （一）近期黄金创新高的主因？美联储降息预期升温，叠加联储"独立性"叙事催化 8月下旬以来，黄金大幅上涨，主因降息预期升温背景下的实际利率回落。 8月下旬以来，黄金价格从8 月20日的3315.7美元/盎司持续上涨至9月12日的3643.1美元/盎司，屡次刷新金价新高，背后驱动因素主要 是降息预期升温导致的实际利率回落。 美国通胀压力低于预期、就业数据疲软、叠加特朗普对美联储"独立性"的干预，是市场降息预期升温的 主因。 1）8月关税相关通胀分项仍表现疲软。2）8月非农新增就业仅2.2万人、大幅低于预期。3）特朗 普干预美联储"独立性"等，也进一步催化了降息预期的"发酵"。 （二）亚盘黄金为何"滞涨"？A股牛市虹吸配置型资金，人民币快速升值也有影响 近期金价上涨的动力主要来自欧美投资者，亚盘金价未现明显上涨。 1）按交易时段拆解，8月20日以 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that global stock indices mostly rose, with significant increases in the Nikkei 225 (up 4.1%) and the Hang Seng Index (up 3.8%) [2][3] - Precious metals prices have continued to rise for three consecutive weeks, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.3% to $3646.3 per ounce [2][56] - The U.S. market has fully priced in expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, following the August CPI data release [2][87] Group 2 - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, which has heightened expectations for more expansive fiscal policies in Japan [2][68] - The resignation is attributed to the ruling party's historic losses in elections, leading to a potential increase in long-term interest rates if a more expansionary fiscal policy is adopted [2][68] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 3.3% following the announcement, indicating market reactions to potential fiscal changes [2][68] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. average tariff rate stands at 9.75%, with a notably high rate of 40.36% on imports from China, contributing approximately $10.1 billion in tariff revenue [2][72] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to review tariff policies, which could impact future tariff structures [2][72] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury auction results indicate strong demand for government bonds, particularly in the mid-term category, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 3 for certain maturities [2][74] - The auction results reflect robust interest from global institutions in locking in U.S. Treasury yields [2][74] Group 5 - As of September 9, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.32 trillion, slightly up from $1.31 trillion in the previous year [2][75] - Total expenditures for the year amounted to $5.67 trillion, compared to $5.30 trillion in the same period last year [2][75]

Group 1: Changes in New Growth Momentum - Since 2023, the high-tech manufacturing industry has seen an upward trend, with growth momentum shifting from external demand to internal demand [2][3] - The EPMI index has shown a greater rebound compared to the PMI index, indicating an improvement in the economic climate for emerging industries [2][10] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing has significantly increased in 2023, contributing to GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in the first half of 2025, driving GDP growth by 2.3%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2023 [2][10] Group 2: Profitability Performance of New Growth Momentum - The profit growth of the high-tech manufacturing sector is more resilient than that of other industries, primarily due to a higher profit margin, which exceeds that of other manufacturing sectors by approximately 2 percentage points [4][33] - Since 2019, profit growth in high-tech manufacturing has consistently outpaced that of other manufacturing sectors, with profit shares in electrical machinery and computer communications increasing by 3.8 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, by July 2025 [4][33] - The profit margin for high-tech manufacturing was recorded at 6.5% in July 2025, while other industries lagged at 4.3% [4][33] Group 3: Factors Influencing Profitability - High-tech manufacturing maintains a cost rate approximately 5 percentage points lower than other manufacturing sectors, supporting its relatively high profit margins [4][43] - The cost rate for high-tech manufacturing has remained around 90%, compared to 94.5% for other manufacturing sectors, contributing to better profit performance [4][43] - Increased investment in innovation has provided high-tech manufacturing with stronger pricing power, helping to sustain profit margin growth [5][56] Group 4: Potential Impacts of Accelerated New Growth Momentum - The improvement in profitability within high-tech manufacturing is expected to directly impact the labor market, leading to increased employment in this sector [6][67] - Employment growth in high-tech manufacturing is projected to rebound to 0.9% by 2025, contrasting with negative growth in other manufacturing sectors [6][67] - Higher wages in high-tech manufacturing are anticipated to further boost household income, with average annual salary growth in electrical machinery and computer communications projected at 14.9% and 12%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [8][72]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown improvement, with blast furnace operating rates increasing by 3.5% week-on-week and 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 6.2% [2][5] - The chemical production chain has also seen a rebound, with soda ash and PTA operating rates rising by 1.1% and 5.5% respectively, year-on-year changes of 2.7 percentage points to 12.5% and 8.5 percentage points to -6.3% [2][12] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved, increasing by 6% week-on-week and 5.8 percentage points year-on-year to 73.5% [12] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - Infrastructure construction remains at a high level, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates rising by 4.3% and 1.1% respectively, year-on-year changes of 5.8 percentage points to -5.5% and 1.1 percentage points to -4.4% [2][16] - Asphalt operating rates have slightly decreased by 1.8% week-on-week but remain at a high level year-on-year at 12.4% [2][22] Group 3: Real Estate and Demand - Real estate transactions have improved, with the average daily transaction area of new homes rising by 9.6 percentage points year-on-year to 6.3%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][25] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has shown strong performance, with year-on-year increases of 3% to 7.2% and 7.8% to 13.4% for cargo and container throughput respectively [2][32] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have rebounded, with prices for eggs, vegetables, and pork increasing by 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [3][57] - Industrial product prices are showing divergence, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.1% week-on-week, while energy and chemical prices decreased by 0.2% and metal prices increased by 0.3% [3][63]

事件： 8月，社零当月同比3.4%、预期3.8%、前值3.7%；固定资产投资累计同比0.5%、前值1.6%；房地 产开发投资累计同比-12.9%、预期-12.4%、前值-12%；新建商品房销售面积累计同比-4.7%、前值-4%； 工业增加值当月同比5.2%、预期5.8%、前值5.7%。 总结：反内卷对国内供需的影响开始显现，但外需有望继续贡献经济韧性，预计下半年经济下行压力相 对可控。 9月经济继续呈现内需偏弱、外需偏强的格局。展望后续，外需压力或相对可控，内需压力更 值得关注，包括"反内卷"对生产与投资的影响，以及前期地产新开工项目持续收缩对投资的滞后影响， 后续紧密跟踪增量政策变化。 常规跟踪：8月工业生产走弱，投资、消费均延续回落 生产：工业生产走弱，服务业生产维持高位。 8月，工业增加值当月同比较7月下行0.5pct至5.2%，其中 制造业生产降幅较大。服务业生产指数当月同比下行0.2pct至5.6%。 投资：固定资产投资进一步下探，地产投资降幅较大。 8月，固定资产投资回落1pct至-6.3%；其中，狭 义基建、制造业、地产投资分别回落0.5、0.8、0.9pct。 消费：社零增速有所下行，结构上商 ...

关注、加星，第 时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 事件： 9月12日，央行公布2025年8月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下降0.1个百分点至6.8%，社融存量同 比下行0.2个百分点至8.8%，M1同比上行0.4个百分点至6.0%。 核心观点："存款搬家"提速。 8月金融数据中最明显的变化体现为"存款搬家"，居民存款连续两个月超季节性下行，以及非银存款的再 度多增。 7、8月居民存款连续两个月低于季节性增幅，为2025年首次。另外，8月非银存款新增11800 亿，连续创有数据以来同期新高。居民存款和非银存款连续两个月呈"跷跷板"关系，和资本市场表现联 系紧密，反映居民资产结构变化初露端倪。 居民贷款仍偏弱，在就业市场尚不稳定的阶段，居民部门对债务秉持审慎态度。 居民贷款同比少增1597 亿，这一情况和处于低位的消费者信心指数一致。另一方面，消费贷贴息政策在9月份才启动，8月数据 尚未体现。居民贷款增长的不确定性或与当前居民就业前景有关，BCI中的企业招工前瞻指数2025年8月 为44.07，续创2020年3月以来新低。 8月企业贷款中，中长贷余额同比增速下滑趋势放缓，企业对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the recent shifts in the U.S. labor market, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the current economic landscape [8][12][24]. Deep Dive Topic - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industrial restructuring and the signals from central authorities regarding adjustments in industrial structure, aiming to understand the pathways from the previous five-year plan and how the new plan will be implemented [8]. Hot Topics - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for August showed a cooling trend, leading the market to shift from "rate cut trading" to "recession trading." The employment market's weakness raises questions about the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12]. - A recent surge in overseas risk-free interest rates has triggered a sell-off in global sovereign bonds, prompting discussions on the reasons and sustainability of this market behavior [12][24]. - The article critiques the misconception that the decline in exports is due to a "rush to export," asserting that the August trade data reflects broader economic conditions rather than a simple market reaction [17]. High-Frequency Tracking - The analysis of August's CPI indicates that core inflation is no longer the primary concern for the Federal Reserve, with limited transmission of tariffs on goods inflation and a weakening trend in super-core service inflation [21]. - The commentary on commodity price increases suggests that while upstream price hikes have positively impacted PPI, low capacity utilization in downstream sectors continues to exert downward pressure on PPI [18].