Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of "jobless growth" and "K-shaped recovery" in the U.S. economy since mid-2025, questioning whether the economy can escape these characteristics in 2026 [2][5][89] - "Jobless growth" refers to a situation where economic growth occurs without corresponding job creation, with non-farm payrolls declining to an average of 18,000 per month from June to August 2025, significantly below historical non-recession averages [2][6][89] - The "K-shaped economy" is characterized by a divergence in consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households experience significantly higher consumption growth compared to low-income households [2][23][89] Group 2 - The causes of the "K-shaped economy" are identified as economic slowdown, monetary easing, the impact of Trump's policies, and a structural bull market in U.S. stocks [3][50][74] - The article highlights that the labor market has become "looser," with low-wage groups being the first to feel the economic downturn and the last to benefit from recovery, indicating a structural imbalance in income and wealth distribution [3][50][62] - Long-term trends show that income and wealth inequality in the U.S. began in the 1980s, with real labor income growth lagging behind productivity growth, reflecting the rise of capital and technology over labor [3][77][110] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the difficulty in bridging the "K-shaped gap," questioning whether the economy will experience inclusive growth or a recession that erases wealth [4][90][110] - Historical examples of "jobless recoveries" are provided, illustrating that after past recessions, unemployment rates continued to rise despite economic recovery, with the path to recovery typically involving sustained demand expansion and tightening labor markets [4][90][91] - The article suggests that the U.S. economy in 2026 may transition from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth," but the characteristics of the "K-shaped economy" may not significantly change due to a persistently weak labor market [4][90][98]

Deep Topics - The article highlights the "blind spot" in the bond market, warning of the "high volatility" trap in a low-interest-rate environment, where adjustments can occur within 1-2 months, leading to changes of 50-100 basis points [4][6]. - It emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to focus on structural investment opportunities, suggesting that such collaboration can enhance economic resilience [6][8]. Hot Topics - The outlook for the U.S. labor market in 2026 is discussed, questioning whether the trend of "jobless growth" will continue [11]. - The Political Bureau meeting aims to achieve a good start for the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on balancing economic work and trade struggles while emphasizing the effectiveness of policies [13][16]. - Economic indicators show a rebound in exports and a strengthening CPI, raising questions about the overall economic performance in terms of volume and price [15][19]. - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines ten highlights, including the need for a proactive fiscal policy, increasing fiscal deficit rates, and supporting key areas through enhanced government spending [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in M1 growth is attributed to the misalignment of fiscal debt issuance timing, with significant liquidity injections from the issuance of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds in November 2024, which supported M1 and economic growth in the first half of 2025 but led to a lack of improvement in M1 growth by the end of the year [2][8][49] Financial Data Summary - As of November 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%, while the total social financing stock remained flat at 8.5%, and M1 fell by 1.3 percentage points to 4.9% [1][7][47] - The M1 growth decline is also linked to a decrease in household deposits, which is directly related to a contraction in household credit demand, with significant reductions in short-term loans [2][11][38] - In November, corporate loans were primarily short-term, with a slight increase in short-term loans and bill financing, while medium to long-term loans saw a minor decline, indicating a cautious investment attitude among enterprises despite rising PPI [16][49] Social Financing and Government Debt - The growth rate of social financing stock showed signs of recovery, primarily due to a narrowing decline in government debt net financing, which decreased by 1,048 billion yuan year-on-year, significantly less than the 5,643 billion yuan decline in October [3][21][49] - The government debt net financing plan for December indicates a remaining quota of 1.2 trillion yuan, while the financing for December 2024 is projected to be as high as 17,566 billion yuan, which may again pressure social financing growth [21][49] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the Central Economic Work Conference's emphasis on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, future monetary policy may become more proactive [23][49] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools, including potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, to adapt to macroeconomic conditions [23][49] Regular Tracking of Financial Indicators - In November, new credit totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in household loans [4][50] - The structure of deposits showed a year-on-year decrease in household deposits by 120 billion yuan, corporate deposits by 94.7 billion yuan, and fiscal deposits by 190 billion yuan [38][50]

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟表示，2025年中央经济工作会议更突出经济潜能挖掘与政策、改革的协同 发力，同时强化内需稳定性保障，政策导向更贴合当前发展形势。 政策着力点聚焦扩大内需、深化改革、绿色转型等关键领域，对资本市场影响偏结构性， 消费、科技、新能源等板块或迎来投资机遇。 正文 赵伟表示，财政政策延续"更加积极"取向，会议明确，"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"，"重视解决地方财政困难"，"督促各地主动化债"或指向 2026年将着重打通政策堵点，一方面加大对地方财政支持，另一方面加码督促化债。 货币政策方面，会议将"促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升"列为重要考量，凸显对经济与物价的支撑作用。 赵伟认为，物价作为反映供需的信号成为政策关注变 量，会议提出，"灵活运用降准降息等工具"，预示后续货币政策宽松空间或部分打开，并以"推进中小金融机构减量提质"畅通传导机制。 值得关注的是，会议提出，"存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，扩大宏观政策取向一致性评估范围。 赵伟认为，这意味着后续增量政策要与当前经济目标保持一致， 过往推出的、不符合当前经济转型阶段的存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes five "musts" to address the current economic challenges, highlighting the contradiction of strong supply and weak demand domestically, and focusing on the need for policy support and reform innovation to stimulate economic potential [2][15]. Economic Situation and Policy Framework - The conference identifies persistent "old problems and new challenges" in the economy, particularly the contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, which aligns with the ongoing weakness in PPI and CPI [2][15]. - The 2025 conference shifts focus from the demand side issues highlighted in 2024 to the current supply-demand imbalance, indicating a more targeted approach to economic challenges [2][15]. Economic Goals for 2026 - The conference outlines a focus on overall economic stability and quality improvement, stating the goal of "continuously consolidating and expanding the stable and positive momentum of the economy" without detailing specific indicators [3][16]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, while addressing local fiscal difficulties and promoting debt management [4][17]. - Monetary policy aims to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery, with a focus on flexible use of tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [4][17]. Policy Coordination and Reform - The conference stresses the importance of enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, integrating both existing and new policies to align with current economic goals [5][18]. - There is a notable emphasis on combining short-term policy measures with long-term institutional reforms, particularly in expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution" in competition [6][19]. Green Development and Risk Management - The conference prioritizes green and low-carbon initiatives, committing to "double carbon" goals and accelerating the construction of a new energy system [7][20]. - Risk management strategies have evolved from "preventing and resolving" to "actively and prudently resolving," particularly in the real estate sector, with a focus on controlling new supply and optimizing existing stock [8][20].

报告正文 2025年中央经济工作会议针对新形势提出五个"必须"，与2024年五个"统筹"形成逻辑呼应，延续并深化了经济 工作的规律性认识。 五个"必须"具体为：必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须 做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功应 对外部挑战。与2024 年会议提出的五个"统筹"为对比， 2025年会议更突出经济潜能挖掘与政策、改革的协同发力，同时强化内需 稳定性保障，政策导向更贴合当前发展形势。 会议分析经济形势时指出，我国"老问题、新挑战仍然不少"，并突出强调"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"，精准聚焦 当前核心痛点。 2024年会议中提出的问题更侧重需求侧，即"国内需求不足，部分企业生产经营困难，群众就 业增收面临压力"。2025年会议则直指当前供给相对偏强而需求不足的现状，既契合PPI、CPI持续疲软的现 实，也构成会议提出"深入整治'内卷式'竞争"的重要背景。 会议在基调上有何亮点？针对新形势提出五个"必须"、强调"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"等 2025年中央经济工作会议对2026年经济目标的表述聚焦总量层面，未对各项细分指标逐一铺陈。 关于 ...

Group 1 - In November, economic activity showed signs of weak improvement, with inventory levels decreasing, which may lead to a more orderly recovery in production [1][7] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, indicating that production constraints from high inventory levels are still present [1][7] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in November, with a faster pace of inventory reduction potentially easing the impact of high inventory on future production [1][7] Group 2 - Domestic demand highlights are seen in investment and service consumption, with the negative impact of debt reduction on investment potentially easing [2][22] - Investment indicators showed a general performance in November, despite a year-on-year decline of approximately 16% in construction and installation investment in October [2][22] - Service consumption is expected to improve due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite pressures from the decline in trade-in programs [2][22] Group 3 - Economic growth pressure remains focused on the manufacturing sector, primarily due to companies accelerating debt repayments, which further constrains investment [3][28] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with November seeing further declines in real estate investment and commodity housing sales [3][42] - The sales area of commodity housing in November fell by 33.1% year-on-year, indicating a significant downturn in the real estate market [3][42] Group 4 - Inflation indicators showed improvement in November, with CPI rising to 0.7% year-on-year, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables and gold [4][57] - The PPI is expected to remain stable, with upstream commodity prices continuing to support it, although the recovery in mid- and downstream prices is slower [4][51] - The overall economic growth in November is projected to be around 4.4%, indicating resilience in growth despite challenges [4][78]

Core Viewpoint - The CPI rebound in November is primarily influenced by structural factors, and after excluding these disturbances, both CPI and PPI remain weak [2][8][71] CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 0.7%, driven by a low base and reduced supply in certain categories, particularly food [2][71] - Food prices showed a significant increase, with fresh vegetables and fruits rising by 21.8% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively [2][71] - The pork price, heavily impacted by anti-involution trends, remained low, with a year-on-year CPI of -15% [2][71] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, largely supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year [2][72] - Excluding gold jewelry, the remaining core goods CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, attributed to weakened demand for related products due to subsidy reductions [2][72] Service CPI Trends - The overall service CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7%, with a notable decline in housing rent CPI due to weak rental demand among youth [3][25][62] - The core service CPI also showed a decline, with significant drops in prices for hotel accommodations and air tickets following the holiday season [3][25][62] PPI Overview - The PPI in November recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, influenced by rising coal prices due to anti-involution trends, which increased by 9.5% [3][73] - However, the overall PPI remains under pressure from weak midstream and downstream prices, which do not fully reflect upstream price increases [3][73] Future Outlook - There is potential for further increases in commodity prices, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may be slow, leading to a moderate recovery in inflation [4][41] - The CPI is expected to see a mild rebound due to low base effects and high gold prices, but constraints from subsidy reductions and rising youth unemployment may limit this rebound [4][41] Regular Tracking - The CPI in November showed a significant contribution from food items, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% [5][50] - Non-food CPI categories, such as household appliances and communication tools, experienced declines [5][55] - The overall service CPI saw a marginal decline, with core service CPI performing worse than seasonal trends [5][62]

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 报告正文 4、生产高频跟踪：工业生产维持弱势，建筑业开工边际改善 图 36: 上周, 高炉开工率延续回落 全国高炉开工率 (247家) === 2020 2019 2021 2022 2023 -2024 · 2025 96 85 80 75 70 65 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 资料来源: Wind、申万宏源研究 工业生产中，高炉开工延续回落，钢材表观消费也有下滑。 11月23日至11月29日，高炉开工率环 比-1.1%至81.1%，同比-0.8pct至-0.5%；上周（11月30日至12月06日），钢材表观消费环比-2.68%、同 比-2.4pct至-1.2%。钢材社会库存延续回落，环比-2.9%。 图 37: 上周, 钢材周表观消费有所回落 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2021 2019 == 2020 = 2022 2023 2024 2025 1300 万吨 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 1 ...

海外经验显示，低利率环境下债市依然保持较高波动、且调整中易出现1-2月内调整50-100bp的现象，我 们将其称为低利率下的"高波动"陷阱。这或是当下市场普遍忽视的另一个"盲点"。 （一）海外经验"镜鉴"？"低利率"环境下，存在"高波动"陷阱 （二）"高波动"的陷阱背后？一致预期演绎到极致，宏观环境变化下出现反噬 低利率环境下，机构的"同质化策略"与拥挤的交易行为，是债市脆弱性的微观基础。 1）配置型机构为 应对负债端压力会拉长久期，以美国为例，2008-2015年，美国寿险10年以上债券配置占比上升6.3%。 2）交易型机构基差收益薄、融资成本低，倾向于加杠杆，交易也较拥挤。 宏观基本面预期的逆转，通常是打破市场一致预期、导致债市步入高波动的直接诱因。 历史回溯来看， 低利率时代债市出现高波动并不以货币政策趋紧为前提，降息不及预期即可能触发债市回调。政策预期 的变化往往由基本面改善驱动，经验显示，名义GDP修复是高波动的重要诱因。 宏观环境变化下的资金"再平衡"，是加剧债券市场波动的重要催化剂。 历史回溯来看，低利率阶段9次 美债利率50bp以上的反弹期间，标普500悉数上涨；7次日债利率反弹期间，日经22 ...