Group 1 - The article discusses significant adjustments in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold down 1.1% to $4,879.6 per ounce and COMEX silver down 17.6% to $84.8 per ounce [2][49][56] - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.3%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.26% [2][21] - The article highlights a temporary agreement reached by U.S. bipartisan leaders to avoid a prolonged government shutdown, with funding for the Department of Homeland Security separated from the comprehensive bill [2][67] Group 2 - The article notes that the U.S. December PPI increased by 3.0%, exceeding market expectations of 2.8%, driven by strong service sector performance [95] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending January 24 were reported at 209,000, higher than the expected 205,000 [98] - The article mentions that the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rose to $952.7 billion as of January 28, indicating an increase from the end of December [73] Group 3 - The article reports that the U.S. government recorded a cumulative fiscal surplus of $73.8 billion as of January 27, 2026, compared to a deficit of $27.8 billion in the same period last year [79] - The article discusses the nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which has caused significant market fluctuations [91][109] - The article indicates that the market anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, despite the recent nomination of Warsh [91][109]

北京时间1月30日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席，引发市场热议"沃什时代"的美联储政策。为什么是沃什、他将如何重塑美联 储？ 一、热点思考：旧制度的复兴——"沃什时代"的美联储 （一）"沃什冲击"：特朗普选择沃什，美债收益率曲线"陡峭化"，美元走强 本次美联储主席提名历时较长，反映特朗普政府在忠诚度、降息立场、政策声誉、改革议程和华尔街影响力等多方面的艰难权衡。 2025年8月-2026年1月 底，最可能的"影子主席"在五位候选人中不断切换，或主要与面试的先后次序及媒体报道相关，并不代表真实概率。 2017年提名时期，市场对领跑候选人的预期也呈现较大波动，但波折程度远不及此轮。 2017年11月特朗普提名鲍威尔之前，沃什提名预期一度领跑，直至10 月初才被鲍威尔反超。反观此轮，哈赛特概率一度超过80%，远超上一轮水平，且沃什概率在最后一个月还曾被里德反超。 市场对不同候选人的"定价"显著不同。 1）11月哈赛特概率飙升时，市场交易凸显对"独立性"的担忧；2）1月末里德概率飙升时，市场呈现"宽松-金发女 郎"交易；3）1月30日，沃什概率飙升时，市场走出"紧缩交易"，美债利率 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 ☎欢迎交流：申万宏观 赵宇、陈达飞、赵伟 周度研究成果汇总 （1.24-1.30） 重点推介 热点思考：美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ 1.全球债市恐慌再现，美国上演"股债汇三杀" 近期海外市场再度上演"股债汇三杀"，触发因素是美欧格陵兰争端、丹麦养老基金宣布将退出美债投 资、高市早苗提前选举。流动性冲击下，特朗普达沃斯论坛再度TACO，市场阶段性缓和。 2.美债短期风险可控，长期根本矛盾未解决 2026年美国紧财政政治动力已减弱下，减税、增加供给侧投资，令赤字率或上升至6.8%。关税风险、美 国引发的地缘风险或长期存在，美债或不再安全。 3.常规政策区间，不宜期待联储QE或YCC 为缓和债务风险，特朗普或采取"结构性"金融抑制措施，压低实际利率。在非战争或非零利率状态下， 美联储极不可能通过QE或YCC压降美债利率。 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？——"大财政"系列之二 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"速见系列" 第21期: 《1月FOMC例会解读与展望》 2 、"洞见系列" 第112期: 《美国通胀风险有多大 ...

事件： 1月30日，财政部公布2025年财政收支情况。 2025年，全国一般公共预算收入216045亿元，比上 年下降1.7%；全国一般公共预算支出287395亿元，比上年增长1%。 核心观点：财政收支分化加剧，后续政策重心或转向"财政金融协同" 支出端结构优化，基建类支出提速，增量政策资金亦正加速落地。 尽管收入端承压，但广义财政支出降 幅持续收窄。结构上，城乡社区支出同比大增12.8%，增速由负转正，叠加科学技术支出占比提升，印证 了年末基建、城市更新及科创领域的投入力度加大。政府性基金支出虽增速小幅回落但仍维持1.5%的正 增长，或表明5000亿元专项债结存限额正在加速落地。 往后看，一季度经济"开门红"或有赖财政金融协同发力，重点关注贴息扩围与新基建投资。 2026年一季 度政策加码或更加倚重"财政金融协同"。结合近期部委发布会信号，财政端将通过扩大消费贷及设备更 新贴息范围（如纳入服务消费、数字化转型等），配合央行结构性降息协同撬动内需。同时，"十五 五"规划建议指引下，财政资金将进一步向新基建倾斜，通过"适度超前新基建"，确保存量债务化解与增 量经济发展并重。 常规跟踪：广义财政收支分化，支出降幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is primarily attributed to the early return of workers for the 2026 Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [2][7][61] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the neutral line, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers [2][8][61] - The manufacturing production index declined by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2% [5][41][64] - The purchasing index for manufacturing dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, indicating a notable contraction in supply [3][15][62] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI falling by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down by 1 percentage point to 47.9% [3][22][62] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively [3][22][62] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing sector showed asymmetric effects from the early return of workers, with the construction PMI dropping to 48.8%, a decline of 4 percentage points, while the service sector PMI only slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5% [4][25][62] - The construction sector's decline is more significant than the average historical drop of 1.4 percentage points for January since 2017 [4][25][62] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may disrupt PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic recovery trend is expected to continue, supported by travel and consumption during the holiday [4][34][63] - Recent policies aimed at boosting service consumption are anticipated to support the service sector's recovery, with a focus on changes in consumer demand [4][34][63]

摘要 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 耿佩璇 事件：1月27日统计局公布2025年12月工业企业效益数据，营业收入累计同比1.1%、前值1.6%；利润累计同比0.6%、前值0.1%。12月末，产成品存货同比 3.9%、前值4.6%。 核心观点：12月利润明显回升，更多源自其他损益项的拉动，与8月利润表现相近。 总体：12月利润同比有所回升，主因并非营收和成本率的贡献，反弹较大的是其他损益，与8月走势较为相近。 12月工业企业利润当月同比回升18.5个百分点 至5.1%。从影响因素看，利润率对利润增速的拉动上行21.7个百分点至8.6%；其中成本率贡献较小，而其他损益项等短期指标对利润的拉动较大，较前月上 行23.4个百分点至18.3%。与8月情况相似，彼时其他损益等对利润同比的拉动也较前月大幅上行24.8个百分点至18.3%。 行业：12月个别行业利润走强对本月利润的拉动较大，背后或与其他收益等短期指标改善有关，也与8月行业层面的利润表现相似。 12月，有色加工、煤炭 采选等行业利润大幅回升，单个行业利润拉动整体利润回升5.7、4个百分点至5.4%、1.8%。从影响因素看，上述行业的营业收入、成本压力并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the U.S. financial markets, characterized by a simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, while highlighting the underlying issues of debt expansion and geopolitical risks that remain unresolved despite temporary market stabilization following Trump's statements at the Davos Forum [2][7]. Group 1: Market Turmoil and Immediate Responses - On January 20, a "triple kill" in the U.S. markets occurred, with significant sell-offs in U.S., European, and Japanese bonds, leading to a drop in risk assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold [3][8]. - Key triggers for this market turmoil included concerns over U.S.-European trade disputes, a Danish pension fund's exit from U.S. debt investments, and rising fiscal risks in Japan [3][13]. - Trump's remarks at the Davos Forum on January 21 helped to temporarily ease market fears by ruling out military action regarding Greenland and announcing a framework agreement with Europe [19][3]. Group 2: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to continue rising, with the 2026 deficit rate expected to reach 6.8%, driven by increased defense spending and immigration-related expenditures [4][66]. - Political motivations for fiscal tightening have weakened, with both parties showing a consensus on fiscal expansion, which may lead to a sustained increase in the deficit regardless of electoral outcomes [26][66]. - Geopolitical risks and tariff concerns are likely to persist, with Trump potentially using alternative tariff measures even if existing ones are deemed illegal [37][66]. Group 3: Structural Financial Measures - To mitigate debt risks, Trump may implement "structural" financial repression measures aimed at lowering real interest rates, although expectations for the Federal Reserve to adopt Yield Curve Control (YCC) are not advisable [5][67]. - The article emphasizes that developed countries with sovereign currencies have a lower likelihood of actual default, as their central banks can issue currency as needed [43][67]. - Proposed measures to address debt concerns include government involvement in interest rate guidance, expanding liquidity tools, and adjusting the structure of debt issuance to reduce long-term impacts [49][67].

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 一、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普表态暂缓关税，日央行1月按兵不动 美国股债汇三杀，金银不断刷新历史新高。 当周，标普500下跌0.4%；10Y美债收益率持平；美元指数下 跌1.9%至97.5，离岸人民币升至6.94；布油价格上涨2.7%至65.9美元/桶，COMEX金价格上涨7.5%至 4936.0美元/盎司 COMEX银价格上涨15.4%至102.9美元/盎司。 日央行1月例会按兵不动，上修2026年通胀、经济增速预测。 日央行将2026年核心CPI（不含新鲜食品） 预测上修至1.9%，实际GDP增速预测上修至1.0%；日本12月CPI同比回落至2.1%，但核心通胀仍稳健； 美国11月实际PCE消费环比0.3%，符合市场预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 一、大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一）大类资产：美国股债汇三杀，金银不断刷新历史新高 当周，发达市场股指悉数下跌、新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指方面，德国DAX、法国 CAC40、英国富时100分别下跌1.6%、1.4%、0.9% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation risks in the United States for 2026, focusing on the impact of tariffs and other economic factors on inflation trends [2][3][7]. Group 1: Tariff Effects on Inflation - Tariffs have a measurable effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S., estimated to increase it by approximately 0.65 percentage points. However, the transmission of tariffs is not instantaneous but rather gradual, influenced by the tariff rate path [2]. - The effective tax rate increase due to tariffs has limited room for growth, with a potential increase of only 2 percentage points after excluding country-specific factors [2]. - By September 2025, exporters, importers, and consumers are expected to bear the tariff costs in proportions of 6%, 37%, and 57%, respectively. Since Q4 2025, the momentum for businesses to pass on tariff costs has strengthened [2]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook for 2026 - The inflation trend in 2026 is anticipated to exhibit a "high first, low later" characteristic, with upward risks primarily from cyclical factors and metal inflation, while downward risks are linked to productivity and tariff decisions under the IEEPA [3]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely tied to inflation risks, and if it continues to rely on data-driven approaches, inflation risks may remain manageable [3]. Group 3: Economic Consensus and Divergence - A survey of 74 institutions reveals differing views on the U.S. economic growth rate for 2026, highlighting areas of consensus and disagreement among major institutions [5][9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of fiscal and financial coordination to stimulate domestic demand, suggesting that enhancing support for technological innovation and private investment will be key areas of focus in future policies [11].

"对等关税"落地以来，美国再通胀的风险可控，至今尚未成为货币政策和资本市场的主要矛盾。关税的通 胀效应为何持续低于预期、会否成为2026年"被低估"的风险？ 一、对等关税的"通胀效应"：这次为何系统性低于预期？ 2025年4月以来，美国通胀开始反弹，但读数持续弱于预期。 2025年，美国"再通胀"的动力主要来自于核心 商品分项，而核心服务继续延续降温态势。2025年12月，美国CPI同比仅为2.7%，4月低点为2.3%；环比角 度来看，2025年4月以来，美国通胀环比多数弱于预期。 关税的通胀效应有迹可循，但传导路径并非脉冲式的，而是阶梯式的。 从"超额"通胀及季节性来看，关税 的通胀效应有迹可循；但是，关税的传导路径并非脉冲式的，Cavallo（2025）指出，关税对美国CPI的推升 幅度约为0.65个百分点。近几月以来，关税传导进度甚至有所停滞。 关税传导的阶梯特征与关税税率的路径有关。 截止到2025年10月，美国有效关税税率仅为12.4%，低于 15.7%的理论税率。运输时滞、抢进口因素一度阻碍有效税率提升，但关税豁免、进口国别转换或限制税率 提升空间。剔除国别转换因素后，有效税率提升空间仅为2个百分 ...