Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic trends and their impact on various asset classes, highlighting key insights on gold, currency exchange rates, and bond markets throughout 2025 [2]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The analysis on January 2, 2025, indicates a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the acceleration of U.S. Treasury bond maturities may lead global central banks to increase gold purchases [3]. - The article notes that investment demand for gold in Europe and the U.S. is expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year [3]. Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rates - On January 16, 2025, the article discusses the resilience of the Renminbi (RMB), attributing it to the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustments and domestic economic strength, despite widespread expectations of depreciation [4]. - The analysis on July 8, 2025, differentiates between a weak dollar and the concept of "de-dollarization," suggesting that anticipated interest rate cuts may support a temporary strengthening of the dollar index [9]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The March 17, 2025, commentary warns against a linear bullish mindset in the bond market, indicating that asset allocation strategies may be shifting [5]. - The article highlights the potential for a rebalancing of investment strategies in the bond market, moving away from traditional linear thinking [5]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Signals - The article from May 11, 2025, points to positive signals from policy developments, suggesting that trade negotiations and financial pressures may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance [6]. - The June 15, 2025, analysis draws parallels between the current economic environment in Hong Kong and previous periods, suggesting that a weaker Hong Kong dollar and low interest rates could benefit the Hong Kong stock market [7]. Group 5: Market Behavior and Trends - The August 16, 2025, piece notes that inflation pressures have eased, leading the market to focus on the "weak balance" in the U.S. labor market, with a shift towards interest rate cut trades and capital inflows into the U.S. [10]. - The article concludes with a cautionary note regarding gold prices, indicating that market expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may already be priced in, contrasting with the bullish sentiment in the A-share market [11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly falling below 4.0% [1][3] - Since the early 1970s, the Federal Reserve has experienced 12 interest rate cut cycles, with 5 occurring in a soft landing environment and 7 in a hard landing context [5][6] - In soft landing scenarios, the average interest rate cut is about 234 basis points (bps) over an average duration of 9 months, while in hard landing scenarios, the average cut is 647 bps over 20 months [5][6] Group 2 - The macroeconomic conditions determine the slope and space of the decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with preventive cuts resulting in smaller declines and earlier rebounds [2][27] - The low point of the 10-year Treasury yield often occurs 1-2 months before or after the last rate cut in preventive cut scenarios [28][75] - The timing of the low point in Treasury yields is closely related to the pace of interest rate cuts, with faster cuts leading to earlier lows [2][75] Group 3 - Despite the restart of interest rate cuts, the potential for further declines in the 10-year Treasury yield may be limited due to the rise in the long-term nominal neutral interest rate to the 3-3.5% range [3][50] - The market has priced in 4-5 rate cuts by the end of 2026, but the Federal Reserve may only cut rates once if the PCE inflation is projected at 2.6% and unemployment at 4.4% [3][50] - The increase in term premium is expected to dominate the direction of long-term Treasury yields, with the term premium rising to around 0.9% in 2025 due to expanded debt supply and policy uncertainty [3][56]

摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美联储9月例会降息，全球多数股指延续上涨 全球多数股指延续上涨，人民币快速升值。 当周，标普500上涨1.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨2.2%；10Y美债 收益率上行8.0bp至4.1%；美元指数上行0.0%至97.65，离岸人民币升值至7.1196；WTI原油持平前值62.7 美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.1%至3685.9美元/盎司。 中美第四轮经贸会谈：TikTok问题达共识，贸易议题进展有限。 9月14日至15日，中美经贸第四轮双边 会议在西班牙马德里进行，双方就TikTok问题的解决机制达成基本框架共识，但贝森特表态称贸易相关 议题进展有限。中美双方领导人已于9月19日通话。 美联储9月例会降息25BP，美国8月零售销售强于预期。 美联储9月例会降息25BP至4.00-4.25%，上修经 济预测、通胀预测，点阵图显示2025年降息空间共3次；美国8月零售销售环比0.6%，市场预期-0.2%，主 要由网购、餐饮服务消费改善推动。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：美联储9月例会降息，全球多数股指延续 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 浦聚颖 9 . 1 3 - 9 . 1 9 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 电话会议 1、 "周见系列" 第49期："降息交易"的反转 2、"洞见系列" 目录 热点思考 1、 热点思考 | 新动能的"新变化 " 2、 热点思考 | 金价，新高之后的"隐忧" 3、 热点思考 | 财政"下半场"，可能的"后手"？ 高频跟踪 第93期: 《金价，新高之后的"隐忧" 》 第94期: 《财政"下半场"，可能的"后手"》 3、"速见系列" 第5期： 《9月FOMC例会：解读与展望》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 新动能的"新变化" 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.9.16 高技术制造业延续高景气下，经济新动能跑出"加速度"。新动能有何"新变化"，潜在影响几何？ 1、 数据点评 | "存款搬家"提速 2、 数据点评 | "反内卷"影响开始显现 3、 数据点评 | 财政支出趋弱，关注加码可能 4、 国内高频 | 一线城市新房成交改善 5、 海外高频 | 市场消化年内三次降息预期，贵金属价格持续上涨 6、 政策高频 | 金砖 ...

Core Viewpoint - The broad fiscal expenditure continues to slow down, and the fiscal "toolbox" may have various means to counteract downward pressure on the economy [2][3][55] Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while the expenditure was 179,324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [9][55] - In August 2025, broad fiscal revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to July, while broad fiscal expenditure increased by 6%, down 6.1 percentage points from July [2][10] - The completion rate of the broad fiscal revenue budget for the first eight months was 61.9%, slightly lower than the five-year average of 62.7%, and the expenditure completion rate was 57.3%, also below the five-year average of 58.8% [2][10][55] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Support - The slowdown in broad fiscal expenditure is likely due to the end of the large-scale support phase from government debt financing. As of the end of August, the net financing of national bonds, new general bonds, and new special bonds totaled 8.5 trillion yuan, with a 72% issuance progress, nearly 4 percentage points faster than the same period in 2024 [2][15][56] - The issuance of special bonds supporting various sectors has largely been completed, indicating that the large-scale support from government debt funds for broad fiscal expenditure is nearing its end [15][56] Group 3: Economic Growth and Future Outlook - The support from fiscal funds for the economy may weaken in the future, as the issuance of new government debt approaches its end, making it difficult for broad fiscal expenditure to maintain high growth rates [3][19] - Factors such as the preemptive demand from "old-for-new" and "equipment updates" have been impacted by promotional activities and a "window period" for national subsidies, leading to a decline in retail growth and investment in equipment purchases [3][19] - Historical experience suggests that fiscal measures may include two types of policies: incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments and new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [24][56] Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure Trends - Government fund revenue has significantly declined, dragging down the growth rate of broad fiscal revenue. In August 2025, government fund revenue fell by 5.7% year-on-year, while general fiscal revenue increased by 2% [2][57] - The decline in government fund expenditure has led to a further decrease in the growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure. In July 2025, broad fiscal expenditure grew by 12.1% year-on-year, down 5.5 percentage points from June [4][41] - The completion rate of government fund expenditure in August 2025 was 6.7%, lower than the five-year average of 7% [50][57]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of multilateralism, open cooperation, and collective development among BRICS nations to address global challenges and promote a fair international order [1][2] - The article outlines three key suggestions from President Xi Jinping: uphold multilateralism to defend international justice, maintain an open and win-win international economic order, and strengthen unity and cooperation among BRICS countries [1][2] Group 2 - Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing's research in Sichuan focuses on promoting the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, enhancing industrial innovation capabilities, and fostering new quality productivity for high-quality development [3][4] - The State Council's approval of the pilot implementation plan for market-oriented allocation of factors in ten regions aims to break down barriers to the free flow and efficient allocation of resources, including traditional and innovative factors [5][6] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration's implementation opinions on "Artificial Intelligence + Energy" aim to establish a collaborative innovation system by 2027, with a goal of achieving world-leading levels in AI applications within the energy sector by 2030 [7][8] Group 3 - The 17th meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress highlighted the need to implement policies to unleash domestic demand, promote technological and industrial innovation, and ensure coordinated regional development [9][10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, enhancing supply chain resilience, and accelerating the development of emerging industries [11][12] - The State Council's opinions on releasing sports consumption potential aim to build a modern sports industry system, with a target of exceeding 7 trillion yuan in total scale by 2030 [13][14] Group 4 - The "Power Equipment Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" sets a target for traditional power equipment revenue growth to maintain around 6% annually, while ensuring effective supply and promoting key equipment breakthroughs [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant role of fiscal policy in supporting economic resilience in the first half of 2025, with a broad fiscal expenditure growth rate of 8.9%, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.3% [3][10] - Fiscal expenditures in the first half of 2025 showed a front-loaded rhythm and differentiated allocation, with a focus on debt resolution and rapid implementation of special refinancing bonds, amounting to nearly 1.8 trillion yuan [3][22] - Key areas of fiscal support included social security and employment, with expenditures increasing by 9.2% year-on-year, and scientific and technological expenditures rising by 9.1% year-on-year [3][22] Group 2 - The necessity and possibility of increasing fiscal measures in the second half of 2025 are highlighted, especially if economic pressures become evident, with potential adjustments to fiscal policies to meet GDP growth targets [5][40] - The article discusses two categories of fiscal tools for potential increases: one involving incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments, and the other involving new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [6][68] - Historical context is provided regarding past adjustments to fiscal budgets, indicating that significant changes have been infrequent, with the last major adjustment occurring in October 2023 [6][68] Group 3 - Current fiscal priorities are identified as risk prevention, transformation promotion, livelihood protection, and consumption stimulation, with a focus on addressing hidden debt issues at the local government level [7][74] - The article notes that new emerging industries and service sector development are key areas of support, as indicated by recent political meetings emphasizing new pillar industries [7][81] - Specific fiscal measures include the establishment of a childcare subsidy fund with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, aimed at supporting families with children [8][89]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇、赵宇 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 8月以来，金价持续上行、再创历史新高。然而，本轮金价上涨或主由欧美投资者推动，亚盘投资者未 现"接力"。不同区域投资者配置分化的原因、后续演绎对金价的影响？供参考。 热点思考：金价，新高之后的"隐忧"？ （一）近期黄金创新高的主因？美联储降息预期升温，叠加联储"独立性"叙事催化 8月下旬以来，黄金大幅上涨，主因降息预期升温背景下的实际利率回落。 8月下旬以来，黄金价格从8 月20日的3315.7美元/盎司持续上涨至9月12日的3643.1美元/盎司，屡次刷新金价新高，背后驱动因素主要 是降息预期升温导致的实际利率回落。 美国通胀压力低于预期、就业数据疲软、叠加特朗普对美联储"独立性"的干预，是市场降息预期升温的 主因。 1）8月关税相关通胀分项仍表现疲软。2）8月非农新增就业仅2.2万人、大幅低于预期。3）特朗 普干预美联储"独立性"等，也进一步催化了降息预期的"发酵"。 （二）亚盘黄金为何"滞涨"？A股牛市虹吸配置型资金，人民币快速升值也有影响 近期金价上涨的动力主要来自欧美投资者，亚盘金价未现明显上涨。 1）按交易时段拆解，8月20日以 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that global stock indices mostly rose, with significant increases in the Nikkei 225 (up 4.1%) and the Hang Seng Index (up 3.8%) [2][3] - Precious metals prices have continued to rise for three consecutive weeks, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.3% to $3646.3 per ounce [2][56] - The U.S. market has fully priced in expectations for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, following the August CPI data release [2][87] Group 2 - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, which has heightened expectations for more expansive fiscal policies in Japan [2][68] - The resignation is attributed to the ruling party's historic losses in elections, leading to a potential increase in long-term interest rates if a more expansionary fiscal policy is adopted [2][68] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 3.3% following the announcement, indicating market reactions to potential fiscal changes [2][68] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. average tariff rate stands at 9.75%, with a notably high rate of 40.36% on imports from China, contributing approximately $10.1 billion in tariff revenue [2][72] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to review tariff policies, which could impact future tariff structures [2][72] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury auction results indicate strong demand for government bonds, particularly in the mid-term category, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 3 for certain maturities [2][74] - The auction results reflect robust interest from global institutions in locking in U.S. Treasury yields [2][74] Group 5 - As of September 9, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2025 reached $1.32 trillion, slightly up from $1.31 trillion in the previous year [2][75] - Total expenditures for the year amounted to $5.67 trillion, compared to $5.30 trillion in the same period last year [2][75]

Group 1: Changes in New Growth Momentum - Since 2023, the high-tech manufacturing industry has seen an upward trend, with growth momentum shifting from external demand to internal demand [2][3] - The EPMI index has shown a greater rebound compared to the PMI index, indicating an improvement in the economic climate for emerging industries [2][10] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing has significantly increased in 2023, contributing to GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in the first half of 2025, driving GDP growth by 2.3%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2023 [2][10] Group 2: Profitability Performance of New Growth Momentum - The profit growth of the high-tech manufacturing sector is more resilient than that of other industries, primarily due to a higher profit margin, which exceeds that of other manufacturing sectors by approximately 2 percentage points [4][33] - Since 2019, profit growth in high-tech manufacturing has consistently outpaced that of other manufacturing sectors, with profit shares in electrical machinery and computer communications increasing by 3.8 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, by July 2025 [4][33] - The profit margin for high-tech manufacturing was recorded at 6.5% in July 2025, while other industries lagged at 4.3% [4][33] Group 3: Factors Influencing Profitability - High-tech manufacturing maintains a cost rate approximately 5 percentage points lower than other manufacturing sectors, supporting its relatively high profit margins [4][43] - The cost rate for high-tech manufacturing has remained around 90%, compared to 94.5% for other manufacturing sectors, contributing to better profit performance [4][43] - Increased investment in innovation has provided high-tech manufacturing with stronger pricing power, helping to sustain profit margin growth [5][56] Group 4: Potential Impacts of Accelerated New Growth Momentum - The improvement in profitability within high-tech manufacturing is expected to directly impact the labor market, leading to increased employment in this sector [6][67] - Employment growth in high-tech manufacturing is projected to rebound to 0.9% by 2025, contrasting with negative growth in other manufacturing sectors [6][67] - Higher wages in high-tech manufacturing are anticipated to further boost household income, with average annual salary growth in electrical machinery and computer communications projected at 14.9% and 12%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [8][72]