Core Viewpoint - The December PMI index shows a recovery driven by new momentum and the consumer goods sector, with a reduction in the debt-extraction effect and resilient exports supporting the index [1][4][53]. Group 1: PMI Recovery - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, marking a return to the growth line after nine months, despite a decline in high-frequency indicators such as blast furnace operation and freight volume [1][5][53]. - The production and new orders indices increased by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, reaching 51.7% and 50.8% [5][30]. Group 2: Support from New Momentum - PMI in sectors related to new momentum showed significant improvement, although the sustainability of this trend requires further observation due to a lack of corresponding high-frequency indicators [12][54]. - Traditional industries like black metal rolling and chemical fibers saw a decline in PMI, while emerging sectors such as electrical machinery and pharmaceuticals experienced increases, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs rising by 2.4 and 0.6 percentage points to 52.5% and 50.4% respectively [12][54]. Group 3: Consumer Sector Improvement - The overall consumer goods sector PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4%, despite a significant drop of 5.8 percentage points in the automotive sector PMI, reflecting the impact of reduced government subsidies and demand risks [15][54]. - The textile and apparel sector PMI rose by 4.5 percentage points, correlating with improvements in travel data [15][54]. Group 4: Construction Sector Recovery - The construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating a marginal weakening of the debt-extraction effect on investment due to the alleviation of special refinancing bond issues and the implementation of incremental policies [18][54]. - Activities in housing construction and civil engineering increased by 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, with the business activity expectation index remaining high at 57.4% [18][54]. Group 5: Export Resilience - The domestic order index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while the new export orders index improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49% [22][55]. - High-frequency indicators showed a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points in port foreign trade freight volume, maintaining a high level [22][55]. Group 6: Economic Growth Outlook - The recovery in manufacturing PMI, driven by new momentum and consumer sectors, suggests continued economic resilience, despite traditional momentum facing downward pressure [27][55]. - The implementation of incremental fiscal policies and service consumption-related policies is expected to enhance domestic demand [27][55].

Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - The COMEX silver price reached a historical high, increasing by 4.7% to $78.8 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 2.5% to $4546.2 per ounce during the Christmas market rally [2][30][80] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with most developed and emerging market indices also showing gains. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Australian stock index rose by 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively [2][3] - The US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, and the net issuance of US debt fell, with a rolling net issuance of -$55.26 billion [2][43] - The US fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 reached $1.77 trillion, down from $1.95 trillion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $7.79 trillion [48][80] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3% (annualized), surpassing market expectations of 3.3%. This growth was primarily driven by strong consumer spending, which was influenced by a decline in the savings rate [61][80] - The unemployment claims for the week ending December 20 were 214,000, lower than expected, while the continuing claims were 1.923 million, exceeding market forecasts [64] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year bonds mostly declined, with the yield falling to 4.14% [15][19] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar index fell by 0.7% to 98.03, while other currencies appreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound, which rose by 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively [22][28] - Most commodity prices declined, with WTI crude oil dropping by 4.4% to $56.7 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 4.1% to $60.6 per barrel [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's initiation of the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting signals the end of the QE era rather than a restart, despite both leading to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. RMP and QE have fundamental differences in policy and market implications [2][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Expansion - The Federal Reserve announced a restart of balance sheet expansion at the December FOMC meeting, with the pace slightly exceeding expectations, aligning with liquidity management needs. By the end of 2025, reserves may have fallen to ample levels, necessitating early expansion to accommodate economic growth and seasonal demand fluctuations [3][8][14]. - The RMP, starting on December 12, 2025, has an initial scale of $40 billion, expected to remain high until April 2026, after which it may slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month [3][18][69]. Group 2: Nature of RMP - RMP is a technical operation aimed at assisting the effective implementation of monetary policy without altering the Fed's policy stance. It primarily refers to interest rate policy, allowing market rates to fluctuate narrowly around the policy rate without frequent open market operations [4][41][69]. - RMP and QE both lead to balance sheet expansion but differ fundamentally in quality. RMP is a conventional liquidity management operation, while QE is a broad "yield curve management" tool. RMP is market-neutral, whereas QE is market-non-neutral [4][65][69]. Group 3: Conclusion on QE - QE is only likely to be considered after interest rates are lowered to near zero, as this is the inherent order of monetary easing. Not all balance sheet expansions are classified as QE, which requires a zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy. Prior to reaching this limit, rate cuts are a more effective means of stimulating aggregate demand [5][71][60]. - Historical instances of QE-style expansions by the Fed occurred only after interest rates were lowered to zero or near-zero levels, indicating that a return to QE may require a future crisis [5][47][71].

Core Viewpoints - Industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, primarily due to a significant drop in other gains and ongoing cost pressures [3][64] - In November, industrial enterprise profits fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year to -13.4%, with profit margins also decreasing [6][33] - The decline in profits is attributed to a notable decrease in contributions from other gains, which fell by 9.4 percentage points to -5.1% [3][64] Revenue - In November, industrial enterprise revenue showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, slightly down from 1.8% in the previous month [2][8] - The actual revenue growth rate, excluding price factors, rose by 3.1 percentage points to 3.1%, positively impacting profit comparisons [4][27] - Revenue growth was observed across major industrial chains, with the petrochemical, metallurgy, and consumer chains all experiencing increases [4][27] Costs - Industrial enterprises faced significant cost pressures in November, with the overall cost rate at 84.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [4][23] - The metallurgy chain experienced the highest cost pressure, with a cost rate of 85.4%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [4][23] - Certain sectors, such as non-ferrous rolling and instrumentation, saw notable increases in cost rates, while the petrochemical and consumer chains experienced slight declines [4][23] Industry Performance - Specific industries, such as beverages and food, saw a dramatic decline in profit growth, with beverage profits dropping by 93.4 percentage points to -90.4% [3][17] - The negative contributions from industries like non-ferrous processing and oil and gas extraction further impacted overall profit performance [3][17] - Despite some revenue recovery in these sectors, the decline in other gains significantly affected profit margins [3][17] Inventory - The nominal inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 4.6% in November, indicating a slight rise in actual inventory growth [6][50] - The actual inventory growth rate, adjusted for price factors, was 7.7%, reflecting changes in inventory levels across different stages of production [6][50] Summary - High cost rates remain a key constraint on profit recovery, with ongoing "anti-involution" policies being implemented to address these pressures [5][66] - The current profit pressures are largely due to rigid cost increases driven by downstream investment practices [5][66] - Future monitoring will focus on the effectiveness of policies aimed at alleviating cost pressures and their impact on industrial profitability [5][66]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the RMB, its potential sustainability, and the medium-term outlook for the currency amidst changing economic conditions and external factors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Recent RMB Appreciation - The rapid appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the decline in the US dollar index from 99.4 to below 98, influenced by lower interest rate differentials and expectations of intervention by the Bank of Japan [2]. - A surge in currency settlement activity is anticipated to begin this week, with the actual swap points rising significantly, indicating increased trading volume [2]. Group 2: Short-term Sustainability of RMB Appreciation - The ongoing currency settlement wave is expected to support the RMB, with historical data suggesting that after two consecutive quarters of appreciation, the settlement rate typically improves [3]. - The delayed impact of the February Spring Festival may also contribute to the continued improvement in settlement rates over the next month [3]. Group 3: Medium-term Outlook for RMB - With nominal GDP recovery, the RMB and USD may enter a phase of mutual strength, supported by reduced debt pressure and improved investment and profitability by 2026 [4]. - Enhanced external demand and increased export resilience are expected to contribute to a non-typical recovery, potentially keeping the RMB relatively strong [4].

（二）《求是》发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》 12月15日，《求是》发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，整理了2015年10月至2025年10月期间有关 扩大内需的重要论述。如2024年中央经济工作会议提到，要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动 经济增长的主动力和稳定锚；《关于〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉的 说明》则强调坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，大力提振 消费。 | 图表 19:《求是》发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》 | | --- | | 事件 | 会议 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 过去，我国生产能力滞后，因而把工作直点放在扩大投资、提高生产能力上。现在，产能总体过剩，仍一味靠扩大规模投资 | | 2015/10/29 党的十八届五中全会第二次全体会议 | | 抬高速度,作用有限目边际效用递减。虽然短期内投资可以成为拉动经济增长的重要动力,但最终消费才是经济增长的持久 | | | | 动力 ... | | 2016/1/18 | 省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的十 | 供给 ...

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释放的增量信息与政策信号有何深 意？本文分析，可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体，突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方向，密集开展会议精神的学习、 解读与部署工作。 各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消费结构演变等，财税部门聚焦财力保障，经济大省侧重开放布 局，边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。 融 资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"，与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变 化。 内需方面，中财办提出把握消费结构性变化，坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。 其指出"我国正在从以商品消费为主转向商品 消费和服务消费并重"，契合今年消费现状；投资方面则聚焦消费类基建，并提出"靠前实施具备条件的'十五五'重大项目"。 改革方面，中财办注重统一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in the Chinese economy, highlighting its causes, impacts, and policy responses, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance economic quality and stability [3][5][6]. Group 1: Causes and Impacts of Involution - The current "involution" is characterized by long-term negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and low capacity utilization rates in mid- and downstream industries, which squeeze corporate profits and hinder industrial upgrades [3][5]. - The deep-rooted causes of this "involution" include the differentiation of old and new economic drivers during the economic transition period and the chaotic competition among local governments pursuing GDP and fiscal revenue [5][6]. - The "involution" phenomenon has created a spiral contraction cycle of "price-income-consumption," severely restricting healthy economic development and transformation [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Recommendations - To address the "involution," policies should focus on both supply and demand sides, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion, which benefits both the present and the long term [6][11]. - Supply-side measures include production adjustment, elimination of backward production capacity, and improving product quality to restore prices and enhance competitiveness [6][11]. - Demand-side strategies should promote resident service consumption through fiscal subsidies and social security improvements to unleash consumption potential, while guiding employment from manufacturing to services [6][11]. Group 3: Evolution of Anti-Involution Policies - Since mid-2024, high-level meetings have consistently addressed the need to combat "involutionary" competition, with significant policy decisions made to regulate local government and corporate behaviors [7][8]. - The 2025 government work report outlined specific actions to establish a unified national market and comprehensively address "involutionary" competition [8][11]. - The current anti-involution policies are characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger synergy compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on both local governments and enterprises [11][12]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Context and Industry Characteristics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure from continuously declining prices, with the PPI experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months, and industrial capacity utilization rates at historical lows [14][16]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises is under significant pressure, with many industries, particularly in the mid- and downstream sectors, experiencing negative profit growth [16][19]. - The "involution" is more pronounced in mid- and downstream industries, where the competition has intensified, leading to a decline in profitability and increased cost pressures [19][21]. Group 5: Structural Issues and Future Directions - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms to break the cycle of "price-income-consumption" contraction, advocating for a shift from an investment-driven to an innovation-driven economy [20][42]. - The service sector is identified as a key area for absorbing employment and addressing structural unemployment, with significant potential for growth in service consumption [42][43]. - Policies should focus on enhancing service sector development, improving social security systems, and optimizing service industry regulations to stimulate demand and support economic transformation [37][42].

Group 1: Industrial Production and Construction - Industrial production continues to show weakness, with blast furnace operating rates and steel apparent consumption lower than the same period last year. For the week of December 14 to December 20, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.1% week-on-week and increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to -1.1%. Steel apparent consumption fell by 0.5% week-on-week and increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to -4.1% [1][13] - The steel social inventory continues to decline, down 3.7% week-on-week [1]. - In the construction sector, cement production and demand remain weak, with a decrease in inventory. The national grinding operating rate fell by 2.5% week-on-week and increased by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year to 2.4%. Cement shipment rates decreased by 1.7% week-on-week and fell by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to -2.3% [25][29]. Group 2: Petrochemical and Consumption Chains - The petrochemical chain shows marginal improvement, while the consumption chain remains relatively weak. For the week of December 14 to December 20, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.6% week-on-week and increased by 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to 0.9%. The PTA operating rate remained flat compared to the previous week, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3 percentage points to -8.4% [13][17]. - In the downstream consumption chain, the operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.2% week-on-week but decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -0.4%. The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires showed weak performance, decreasing by 0.2% week-on-week and falling by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to -7.7% [13]. Group 3: Real Estate and Transportation - The transaction volume in the real estate market continues to be low, with major cities experiencing weaker performance. For the week of December 14 to December 20, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 15.4% week-on-week and increased by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year to -28.5% [49]. - The cargo throughput at ports has decreased, but remains higher than the same period last year. For the week of December 8 to December 14, railway cargo volume and highway truck traffic both saw a decline, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to -2.1% and down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year to -2.1%, respectively [61][68]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and vegetable prices declining by 0.3% week-on-week, while fruit and egg prices increased by 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively [103]. - The industrial product price index has seen a decline, with the Nanhua industrial product price index decreasing [116].

Group 1 - The current high level of human flow is not primarily due to a "return home tide," as the flow is stable rather than exhibiting the typical pulse-like increase associated with such a phenomenon [2][3][8] - The national migration index remains at a high level of approximately 15.3% year-on-year, contrasting with previous years where significant declines were observed post-National Day [2][8] - The recent decline in industrial production and infrastructure investment has led to reduced labor demand, prompting many workers to return home earlier than usual [2][8][19] Group 2 - The sustained high level of human flow is supported by several factors, including the introduction of autumn holiday policies, increased business travel, and warmer winter weather [4][5][33] - Multiple regions, including Sichuan and Zhejiang, have implemented autumn holiday policies that significantly boost residents' willingness to travel, with migration indices showing substantial increases compared to the first half of the year [4][33][35] - Business travel has increased, particularly to major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, with domestic and international flight numbers rising by approximately 2% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [4][46][47] Group 3 - High levels of human flow are expected to drive service consumption, particularly in sectors like dining and accommodation, indicating a robust service consumption environment [6][64][100] - The migration index has historically aligned with retail sales growth, but recent trends show that while human flow remains high, retail sales growth is declining, suggesting that service consumption may be more resilient than goods consumption [6][64][100] - There is a notable shift in consumption patterns from goods to services, driven by economic development stages and demographic trends, with potential for significant growth in service consumption in the coming year [6][76][100]