Group 1: Inflation and Policy - The core focus of July's policy is on "anti-involution," with multiple departments addressing the phenomenon of market "involution" [2][11] - The expected PPI and CPI for July are projected to be -3.1% and 0% respectively, indicating weak price performance despite rising expectations of inflation due to supply constraints [2][11] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2][11] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Supply has not significantly contracted, with industrial production showing resilience and exports recovering, leading to an expected industrial value-added growth of around 6.4% in July [4][5] - The PMI production index remains above the expansion threshold, indicating that supply has not experienced substantial contraction [4][5] - The production indices for sectors with strong price increases, such as metallurgy, have shown significant growth, while sectors like petrochemicals and consumer manufacturing have faced declines [4][5][55] Group 3: Demand Structure - Demand is showing structural differentiation, with weak goods demand but stronger service demand, leading to an expected slight decline in actual GDP growth to 4.9% in July [6][73] - Exports are expected to rise to around 6.8% in July, driven by a low base effect and the residual impact of "export grabbing" [6][73] - The consumer market is experiencing a potential decline in goods consumption due to a "window period" for subsidies, while service consumption is expected to improve due to increased travel and dining activities [8][89] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed, with real estate and manufacturing investments likely to decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments may improve [8][102] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support infrastructure investment, with asphalt construction rates showing an increase [8][102] - Manufacturing investment faces downward pressure as equipment renewal demand approaches its peak, while real estate investment is likely to continue weakening [8][102] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The main logic of economic operation in July revolves around "price increases," but supply-side production is increasing while demand remains weak, suggesting limited sustainability of price increases [9][112] - The expected nominal GDP growth for July is projected at 3.9%, with actual GDP growth at 4.9% [9][112]

Group 1 - The average tariff rate in the US increased to 18.3% after August 1, down approximately 4 percentage points from 22.5% on April 2 [62][63] - The new tariff rates for countries with trade agreements range from 10% to 20%, while those for countries with trade deficits range from 25% to 41% [62][63] - Ongoing negotiations between the US and other countries, including India, aim to finalize a phase one agreement by fall 2025, focusing on agricultural products, medical devices, and digital trade tariffs [62] Group 2 - Developed market indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down 2.4% and the French CAC40 down 3.7% [2][3] - Emerging market indices also saw declines, with the South Korean Composite Index down 2.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index down 2.3% [3] - The majority of sectors within the S&P 500 fell, particularly materials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and financials, which dropped 5.4%, 4.5%, 3.9%, and 3.8% respectively [6] Group 3 - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond decreased by 17.0 basis points to 4.2% [16] - Other developed countries also saw declines in their 10-year bond yields, with Germany at 2.8% and Japan at 1.6% [16] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly fell, with Turkey down 21.0 basis points to 29.3% and South Africa down 24.0 basis points to 9.6% [22] Group 4 - The US dollar index rose by 1.0% to 98.69, while most other currencies depreciated against the dollar [27][39] - The offshore Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.1929 against the dollar [39] - Major emerging market currencies also saw depreciation, with the Mexican peso down 1.6% and the Philippine peso down 1.0% [27] Group 5 - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising 3.3% to $67.3 per barrel, while coking coal prices fell 13.2% to 1093 yuan per ton [45][46] - Precious metals experienced varied performance, with COMEX gold up 0.9% to $3360.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver fell 3.4% to $36.8 per ounce [52][58] Group 6 - The US economy's Q2 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.6%, but internal demand showed signs of weakness [73] - Consumer spending in Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 1.4%, below the expected 1.5% [73] - The overall GDP growth was primarily driven by net exports, indicating a potential end to the trend of "importing" [73] Group 7 - The US added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of the expected 104,000, with previous months' job additions revised down significantly [76] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, below the anticipated 7.5 million [76]

Group 1 - The core issue of the article revolves around the weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data for July, primarily due to significant downward revisions in May and June employment figures, raising questions about whether these adjustments are due to statistical factors or a weakening economy [2][4] - The July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 104,000, with May and June figures revised down by 125,000 and 133,000 respectively, indicating a potential shift in the labor market's "tight balance" [5][11] - The downward revisions in employment data are largely concentrated in the government sector, suggesting that the previously reported strong job growth was misleading [5][9] Group 2 - The article questions the reasons behind the significant downward revisions in May and June employment data, indicating that statistical factors alone cannot fully explain the changes, and the primary reason appears to be a weakening job market [23][24] - Historical patterns show that downward revisions in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic slowdowns, suggesting that the current employment data may reflect broader economic challenges [41][49] - The U.S. labor market is entering a "loosened" phase, with both supply and demand weakening, making it difficult for the unemployment rate to decrease significantly [49][61] Group 3 - The economic outlook for the second half of the year suggests a continuation of the slowdown, with factors such as increased tariffs and reduced consumer spending likely to suppress job growth and real income [3][5] - Following the release of the July non-farm data, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September rose to 80%, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a potential recession [3][5] - The article highlights that the labor market's current state may lead to a higher unemployment rate, with projections suggesting it could reach around 4.5% in the coming months [3][61]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 7 . 2 6 - 8 . 1 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 高频跟踪 1、汇率双周报 | 政治漩涡中的"弱势"日元？ 2、热点思考 | 反内卷，破局的"妙招"有哪些？ 3、热点思考 | 反内卷：为何需关注地方政府？ 1、财政支出提速能否持续？-6月财政数据点评 2、育儿补贴落地，影响几何？ 电话会议 热点思考 1 汇率双周报 | 政治漩涡中的"弱势"日元？ 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.7.28 6月以来，日元弱势的原因、后续可能的演绎。 2 热点思考 | 反内卷 破局的"妙招"有哪些？ 点击看全文 3、利润修复的"起点"？ ——6月工业企业效益数据点评 4、"十五五"启幕，蓝图绘新篇——7月中央政治局会议学习理解 5、7月PMI：反内卷的"悖论"？ 6、海外高频｜美日关税协议达成，发达市场多数上涨 7、国内高频 | 港口货运量仍较强 8、政策高频 | 价格法修正草案公开征求意见 9、Top Charts | 两张"反对票"——7月FOMC例会点评与展望 1、 "周见系列" 第41期:《美元大趋势》 2、 "洞见系列" ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 中央财经委会议提出"统一政府行为尺度"，为"反内卷"赋予新内涵。相比过往，本轮 "内卷" 中地方政府 为何成为主要驱动因素，其行为逻辑具体表现在哪些制度性层面？系统分析，供参考。 一、本轮"反内卷"，有何不同？政策更聚焦地方政府行为规范。 相较于 2015 年中央财经领导小组第十一次会议，2025 年中央财经委尤其强调对地方政府行为的规范。 对比两份通稿，后者更侧重规范地方政府行为，提出 "规范地方招商引资" 等具体举措。同时，会议将 "五统一、一破除" 调整为 "五统一、一开放"，核心变化体现在地方政府行为规范尺度与对外开放维度。 上述差异的形成，一方面源于 2015 年产能过剩的全局性特征，另一方面与本轮 "内卷式" 竞争中地方政 府的深度参与直接相关。 2015 年问题源于 "四万亿" 刺激后上游产业过度投资及当时的房地产下行压 力；《求是》文章指出，本轮地方政府的行为表现为打造政策洼地、盲目上马项目、设置市场壁垒。 具体来看，本轮 "内卷式" 竞争涉及的行业中，绝大多数需求呈改善或稳定态势，而非恶化趋势。 电气 机 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has boosted prices, but supply and demand performance is counterintuitive [2][7][67] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, exceeding the average decline since 2017 [2][67] - The increase in commodity prices is reflected in the raw material purchase price index (+3.1 percentage points to 51.5%) and the factory price index (+2.1 percentage points to 48.3%) [2][67] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has marginally declined, with production and new order indices both decreasing [4][70] - The production index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, while the new order index dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4% [4][70] - The new export order index decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.1%, indicating a slowdown in market demand [4][70][35] Key Industries - High-energy-consuming industries are showing production strength despite price increases, with the steel industry PMI rising by 4.6 percentage points to return to the expansion zone [3][18][69] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries saw PMIs decline by 1.1 and 0.9 percentage points to 50.3% and 49.5%, respectively [3][18][69] - Investment demand weakened significantly, contrasting with the strong production performance in high-energy-consuming sectors [21][69] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to a significant drop in the construction PMI [42][70] - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, with the new order index dropping sharply by 2.2 percentage points to 42.7% [5][58][70] - The service sector PMI slightly declined, with the new order index remaining weak at 46.3% [5][46][70] Future Outlook - The political bureau meeting in July emphasized the need for further implementation of the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on the effects in downstream sectors and marginal changes in domestic demand [27][69] - The current situation indicates that the "anti-involution" policy in the upper reaches still requires further advancement, while high-energy-consuming industries are undergoing significant transformations [27][69]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the July 30 meeting of the Central Political Bureau, emphasizing the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in response to economic challenges [2][3]. Economic Performance - The meeting acknowledged the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, exceeding the annual target [2][3]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining awareness of potential risks and challenges, despite the positive economic indicators [2]. Policy Direction - The meeting stressed the need to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating that new policies may be quickly implemented in response to economic fluctuations [3][4]. - There is a focus on promoting domestic demand and the dual circulation strategy, with an emphasis on stabilizing internal demand after a period of "grabbing exports" [3]. Macro Policy Adjustments - The meeting called for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely adjustments, particularly supporting major economic provinces to drive national growth [4]. - Fiscal policies will continue to prioritize the acceleration of government bond issuance and the effective use of funds, with a noted progress of 50.6% in new special bond issuance as of July 13 [4]. - The monetary policy will focus on reducing the overall financing costs for society, with an emphasis on structural monetary policy tools [4][6]. Focus on Key Areas - The meeting highlighted the importance of fostering service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, with a strong emphasis on "high-quality" investments [5][7]. - There is a commitment to improving consumer demand through policies that enhance living standards and expand consumption, particularly in the service sector [6]. - The meeting reiterated the need to prevent the emergence of hidden debts while promoting high-quality urban renewal and infrastructure projects [7]. Conclusion - The overall message from the meeting indicates a proactive approach to economic management, with a focus on sustaining growth through strategic policy implementation and addressing potential risks in the economic landscape [2][4][5].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows divergence, with a slight year-on-year increase in blast furnace operating rates of 1.2% [1][4] - Chemical production has declined, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 3.3 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points respectively [1][11] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate remains below last year's level, down by 0.2 percentage points [1][11] Group 2: Construction Industry - Construction activity is mixed, with nationwide grinding operating rates down by 3.9 percentage points to 6.2% [1][16] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down by 2.6 percentage points to 3.0% [1][16] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points to 0.3% [1][16] Group 3: Downstream Demand - Real estate transactions have shown a slight recovery, with average daily transaction area for new homes down by 6.1% year-on-year, but still up by 20% compared to the previous week [1][29] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has increased, with cargo and container throughput up by 5.2 percentage points and 6.3 percentage points respectively [1][34] - Passenger travel intensity has slightly increased, with the national migration scale index up by 0.4 percentage points to 17.8% [1][39] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with egg and vegetable prices up by 0.3% and 5.0% respectively, while pork and fruit prices are down by 0.2% and 2.3% [2][56] - Industrial product prices have rebounded significantly, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index up by 4.2% [2][63] - Energy and chemical price indices have increased by 4.0% and 4.1% respectively [2][63] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - National railway and highway freight volumes have increased, with year-on-year growth of 0.1 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points respectively [1][34] - Port cargo throughput continues to rise, with significant increases in both cargo and container throughput [1][34] - The overall trend in logistics indicates a recovery in freight activity [1][34] Group 6: Consumer Behavior - Cinema attendance has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 49.3% in viewer numbers [1][42] - Automotive sales show a mixed trend, with retail sales up by 2.2% while wholesale volumes are down by 17.8% [1][42] - The overall consumer spending environment is showing signs of recovery, particularly in entertainment sectors [1][42]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]