关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 4%；房地产投资累计同比-10.7%、预期-10.5%、前值-10.3%；新建商品房销售面积累计同 比-2.9%、前值-2.8%；工业增加值当月同比5.8%、预期5.7%、前值6.1%。 核心观点: 节假日分布差异、电商促销、出口与投资下滑，导致消费与生产背离 消费：电商促销前置与假期增加（同比去年多2天）带动需求集中释放。 5月社零增速创2024年 以来新高。有两大原因。1、电商促销前置带动限额以上零售反弹。家电（+14.2pct至53.0%） 和通讯器材（+13.1pct至33.0%）明显改善；2、5月假日（含周末）比去年同期多2天，直接驱 事件: 5月，社零当月同比6.4%、预期4.9%、前值5.1%；固投累计同比3.7%、预期4%、前值 动出行需求的集中释放。限额以下商品零售（+1.2pct至5.2%）和餐饮收入（+1.3pct至 13%）、服务业零售额（累计同比+0.1pct至5.2%）均改善。 投资：固定投资走弱，主因设备更新周期退坡与传统基建地产回落，但服务业投资继续提速。 5 月固定投资当月同比回落0.7 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、 陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 摘要 5月美国核心CPI弱于市场预期，失业金申领人数上升。 5月美国核心CPI环比0.1%，低于市场预期，其中 服装、新车大幅降温，家电、玩具等分项仍有所升温，美国CPI在三、四季度或仍将进入上行区间；截止 6月7日当周，美国失业金初申领人数24.8万人，高于市场预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；国内政策变化超预期。 报告正文 1 大类资产：美元指数大幅下跌，原油价格暴涨 当周，发达市场股指涨跌分化、新兴市场股指多数下跌。 发达市场股指，恒生指数上涨0.4%，德国 DAX、法国CAC40、道琼斯工业指数分别下跌3.2%、1.5%、1.3%；新兴市场股指，韩国综合指数、巴西 IBOVESPA指数分别上涨2.9%、0.8%，伊斯坦布尔证交所全国30指数、印度SENSEX30分别下跌1.8%、 1.3%。 图表 36: 当周，发达市场股指涨跌分化 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% - 0.0% -0.5% -0.4% -0.6% -1.0% -1.5% ...

Group 1 - The recent volatility of the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) has been significant, with a rapid transition from the strong-side convertibility guarantee to the weak-side guarantee occurring in just 1.3 months, which is unusually fast compared to historical instances [1][6][99] - The HKD's depreciation occurred despite a weakening US dollar, which is atypical as previous transitions to the weak-side guarantee usually happened during a strong dollar period [2][6][99] - The 12-month forward exchange rate for HKD briefly fell below 7.75, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities if the weak-side guarantee is triggered [1][6][99] Group 2 - The initial trigger for the strong-side guarantee in early May was due to a liquidity shortage caused by significant foreign capital inflows, large dividends from Hong Kong stocks, and a surge in fundraising activities [2][35][99] - Since the beginning of the year, cumulative inflows through the Stock Connect have reached 638.6 billion HKD, and foreign capital tracked by EPFR has increased by 5.1 million USD [2][35][99] - The recent approach to the weak-side guarantee is primarily driven by market carry trades following a substantial liquidity release, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) injecting 129.4 billion HKD into the market [2][47][99] Group 3 - If the weak-side guarantee is triggered again, the HKMA is expected to maintain a relatively restrained approach to tightening HKD liquidity, potentially through the issuance of Exchange Fund Bills and Notes (EFBN) [3][68][100] - The current low interest rate environment may benefit the Hong Kong economy, as lower rates could stimulate investment and support the housing market [3][68][90] - Historical data suggests that a weaker HKD and lower interest rates could positively impact the Hong Kong stock market, as seen in previous periods of similar conditions [3][68][90]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人| 贾东旭 摘要 事件：6月13日，央行公布2025年5月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下行0.1个百分点至7.1%，社融存量同比持平于至8.7%，M2同比下行0.1个百 分点至7.9% 。 增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 常规跟踪：M1同比回暖。 5月新增信贷6200亿，同比少增3300亿，拖累仍主要源于企业中长贷。 居民部门贷款新增540亿，同比少增217亿，其中短贷减少208亿，同比多 减451亿，中长贷新增746亿，同比多增232亿。企业部门方面，票据融资新增746亿，同比少增2826亿，短期贷款新增1100亿，同比增加2300 亿。非银贷款新增589亿，同比多增226亿。 5月新增社融22871亿，同比多增2248亿，主要源于政府债券。 人民币贷款新增5960亿，同比少增2237亿。政府债券新增14633亿，同比多增 2367亿。企业债券新增1496亿，同比多增1211亿。委托贷款减少167亿，同比多减158亿，信托贷款新增173亿，同比少增51亿，未贴现汇票减少 1162亿，同比少减169亿。 5月M2同比下行0.1个百分点至7. ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition into a "new phase" of transformation and a "reform period" for policies, highlighting external shocks as either obstacles or opportunities [5] - It emphasizes the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, questioning which aspects are mere storytelling versus actual trends [8] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is identified as a major contradiction for the second half of the year, with a focus on inflation trends [9] Deep Dive Topics - The mid-year outlook indicates a significant shift in policy dynamics, with a focus on how "anti-involution" and the service industry can find solutions [5] - The macro monthly report anticipates changes in policies related to tariffs, tax cuts, and monetary policy, particularly in June [11] - The article on inbound tourism highlights the rapid increase in countries eligible for visa-free entry, reflecting a broader trend of opening up [15] Economic Data Insights - The actual GDP year-on-year growth rates are projected to be 5.2% for 2023 and 5.0% for 2024, with nominal GDP growth rates of 4.7% and 4.2% respectively [6] - Fixed asset investment is expected to show a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.0% in 2023, with a slight increase to 3.2% in 2024 [6] - The article notes a significant decline in real estate investment, projected at -10.6% for 2024 [6] Trade and Employment Insights - The article discusses the shift in export strategies, moving from emerging markets to a focus on the U.S. market [17] - It highlights the strong performance of U.S. non-farm employment, which exceeded expectations [22] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are noted, with significant trade deficits reported for various countries, including a $295.4 billion deficit with China [23] Policy and Market Trends - The article suggests that new policy tools for stabilizing growth are anticipated, with a focus on the potential emergence of innovative financial instruments [14] - The domestic shipping rates on the U.S.-West Coast are reported to be increasing, indicating a recovery in shipping prices [24] - The communication between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump emphasizes the importance of maintaining a cooperative relationship amid ongoing trade discussions [27][28]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 【下游需求】新房成交大幅下滑，集运价格有所回升。 本周，全国新房日均成交面积大幅回落，同 比-28.2pct至-27.8%；其中，一线成交降幅较大。货运流量有所走弱，与内需相关的铁路货运量同 比-2.4pct至-0.1%，与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量同比分别-4pct至0.8%、-10.9pct至0.1%。 此外，CCFI综合指数有较大回升，环比+3.3%。其中，美西航线运价涨幅较大，环比9.6%。 【 物 价 】 农 产 品 价 格 分 化 ， 工 业 品 价 格 回 落 。 本 周 ， 农 产 品 方 面 ， 猪 肉 、 鸡 蛋 价 格 环 比 分 别-0.3%、-0.9%，而蔬菜、水果价格环比分别1.1%、1.1%。工业品方面，南华工业品价格指数环 比-0.2%。其中，能化价格指数环比-0.4%，金属价格指数环比-0.1%。 风险提示 经济转型面临短期约束，政策落地效果不及预期，居民收入增长不及预期。 报告正文 4. 生产高频跟踪：工业生产保持平稳，基建开工弱势运行 上游生产中，高炉开工率保持韧性，表观消费有较 ...

Group 1 - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with inbound tourism showing particularly robust growth, as evidenced by flight execution and travel orders. In 2024, domestic travel has rebounded to 56.1% of historical trends, while inbound tourism has reached 81.9% of historical trends, with travel exports recovering to 138% of 2019 levels [2][10][83] - From the perspective of visitor demographics, tourists from Southeast Asia are showing significant recovery in inbound tourism, while recovery from regions like North America is slower. In 2024, the proportion of tourists from Southeast Asia in Shanghai increased to 22.5%, up 6.8 percentage points from 2023, while the proportion from North America decreased by 2 percentage points [2][17][83] - The recovery pace of China's inbound tourism market is accelerating after 2024, indicating that the tourism market's recovery is not solely dependent on scale expansion. By April 2025, inbound tourist numbers in Shanghai reached 115.3% of the 2019 average, surpassing countries like Thailand and Singapore [3][23][83] Group 2 - The increase in inbound tourism is attributed to the facilitation of visa policies and cultural exports, which effectively stimulate inbound demand. In 2024, the number of foreign visitors entering China through visa exemptions reached 20.12 million, a year-on-year increase of 112.3% [4][26][84] - Historical examples show that optimizing visa policies can significantly release inbound tourism demand. For instance, Japan's gradual relaxation of visa policies from 2013 led to a substantial increase in inbound visitors, from 8.358 million in 2012 to 31.882 million in 2019 [4][34][84] Group 3 - The current low export share of travel and entertainment services in China's GDP indicates significant potential for growth, as the service sector has been relatively closed off. In 2024, travel exports accounted for only 0.1% of GDP, compared to a global average of 1.6% [6][50][61] - The Chinese government is increasing its focus on opening up the service sector, which is expected to release substantial demand for inbound tourism. Recent policies emphasize the importance of service sector openness, which could lead to sustained growth in inbound tourism over the next decade [6][61][66]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、王茂宇、赵宇 联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 2025年上半年，全球宏观经济最大的预期差是"美国例外论"被证伪，原因包括Deepseek时刻、特朗普关税 冲击和美国财政约束。下半年，关税谈判的潜在反复、滞胀预期的验证和《美丽大法案》（One Big Beautiful Bill Act）的落地相互交织，如何把握短期交易节奏、理解"美国否定论"叙事下的全球资金再平衡 的趋势？ 一、叙事切换：从"美国例外论"到"美国否定论" 2025年上半年，全球宏观经济整体平稳，关税扰动导致全球工业生产和商品贸易"前置"。 2025年1-3月，标 普全球制造业PMI连续3个月运行于50荣枯线以上（50.1、50.6和50.3），4月重回49.8。商品贸易量价呈V 型，截止到5月底，商品贸易价格增速已恢复至年初水平。 然而，美国对等关税引发的新一轮全面贸易冲突为下半年的商品贸易、工业生产和经济增长蒙上了"阴 影"。 IMF 4月世界经济展望下修2025年全球GDP增速预测至2.8%，较1月下降了0.5个百分点。其中，美国 从2.7%下调到1.8%，欧元区从1%下调到0.8% ...

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 在当前宏观政策积极发力稳增长的背景下，政策性金融工具备受关注。前两轮其成效显著，本轮新型工 具何时可能落地？资金投向又会有哪些新动向？本文分析，可供参考。 短期还有哪些稳增长工具值得期待？政策性金融工具或"呼之欲出"。 4月政治局会议对宏观政策做出新部署，货币政策率先在5月初落地，财政政策方面，政府债发行依旧保 持积极态势，短期内增量可能来源于政策性金融工具。 货币政策上，央行于 5月7日推出三大类货币政策 措施及十项具体举措。财政政策方面，除政府债净融资维持高位外，增量资金来源需关注政治局会议提 出的 "新型政策性金融工具"。 政策性金融工具可能在6月底落地，一方面源于发改委给出的指引，另一方面也和当前经济基本面稳健有 关。 国家发展改革委副主任表示，"力争6月底前下达2025年'两重'建设和中央预算内投资全部项目清 单，同时设立新型政策性金融工具。"另外，当前经济基本面表现稳健，5月乘联会乘用车零售同比 13.0%，出口相关指标也处于较高区间。 同时，5 月份以来，多地积极筹备项目并准备申报，召开新型政策性金融工具政策宣讲会或对接会。 5月 中旬以来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of policy initiatives in enhancing economic growth and environmental protection, particularly through data sharing and ecological compensation mechanisms [2][3][5]. Group 2 - On June 5, President Xi Jinping and President Trump discussed the importance of maintaining a strong economic relationship between China and the U.S., emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation [2]. - The introduction of the "Regulations on Government Data Sharing" aims to improve the efficiency of government services and digital governance by promoting orderly data sharing and breaking down data silos [3][4]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a unified horizontal ecological compensation mechanism focusing on the Yangtze and Yellow River basins, which will allocate compensation funds based on water quality assessments [5][6]. - The "Opinions on Further Improving the Horizontal Ecological Protection Compensation Mechanism" outlines seven key tasks to attract more social capital into ecological civilization construction, including establishing compensation mechanisms and expanding compensation areas [7][8]. - The Ministry of Finance announced support for 20 cities to implement urban renewal projects, with a total expected subsidy exceeding 20 billion yuan, aimed at improving urban infrastructure and living conditions [9]. - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security initiated a pilot program to integrate human resources services with the manufacturing industry, focusing on establishing service standards and combating illegal practices [10][11].