Group 1: Major Assets & Overseas Events & Data - The Nasdaq index reached a new historical high, while gold experienced a decline for two consecutive weeks. The S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.2%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 9 basis points to 4.11%. The dollar index increased by 0.8% to 99.7, and offshore RMB strengthened to 7.12. WTI crude oil fell by 0.8% to $61.0 per barrel, while COMEX gold dropped by 2.6% to $3995.7 per ounce [2][4][72]. Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Agreement - On October 30, U.S. and Chinese leaders met in South Korea and reached a consensus. The U.S. will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese products will remain suspended for another year. The U.S. will also pause the implementation of the 50% export control rule announced on September 29 for one year. In response, China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly [2][48][72]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% during its October meeting. The Fed plans to end its balance sheet reduction in December. The European and Japanese central banks chose to maintain their current policies during their October meetings. The Eurozone's GDP growth rate for Q3 was 0.2%, exceeding the market expectation of 0.1% [2][50][54][72].

Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of long-term interest rates exceeding 2% and the resulting market dynamics based on international comparisons [8] - It explores the concept of "Sanae Economics" as a potential evolution of Abenomics, highlighting key differences in macroeconomic frameworks and policy approaches [11] - The article analyzes the significant decline in fixed asset investment growth since mid-year and the comprehensive downturn across various sectors [12] Group 1: Deep Dive Topics - The deep dive topic examines the market behavior following the breach of the 2% long-term interest rate threshold, utilizing cross-country comparisons to draw insights [8] - It emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of how such interest rate changes affect different market segments and investment strategies [8] Group 2: Hot Topics - "Sanae Economics" is characterized as distinct from Abenomics, focusing on fiscal leadership versus monetary policy, and addressing deflation versus inflation [11] - The article outlines the strategic focus on government-led investments in critical sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and defense under the new economic framework [11] - It highlights the importance of crisis management and economic security in shaping future economic policies [11] Group 3: Investment Trends - The article identifies a marked decline in fixed asset investment growth, with all major sectors, including infrastructure, services, manufacturing, and real estate, experiencing downturns [12][13] - It questions whether incremental policy measures can effectively stimulate investment and reverse the current trend [12] Group 4: Policy Signals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes optimizing traditional industries and adopting extraordinary measures for technological modernization [16][18] - It outlines the necessity for a modernized industrial system as a foundation for China's economic strategy, focusing on enhancing competitiveness in traditional sectors while fostering emerging industries [18][19]

Core Viewpoints - The October PMI shows weakness primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels impacting production indices [2][68] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 50.1% [8][67] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI's decline is characterized by a more significant drop in the production index compared to new orders, with the production index falling to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2][9] - The new orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a relatively stable demand compared to production [2][9] - The production index's drop is attributed to the retreat from a "production rush" effect and high inventory levels, which constrained the upward movement in October [14][68] Group 2: Demand Structure and External Factors - The demand structure shows a divergence between domestic and international markets, with new export orders significantly declining by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, marking one of the lowest points this year [3][18] - Industries heavily impacted by the drop in new export orders include high-tech and consumer goods, with their respective PMI indices also declining [3][18] - The fluctuation in tariff policies has contributed to the significant drop in new export orders, affecting overall manufacturing performance [3][69] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment Trends - Domestic demand remains resilient, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries and construction [23][69] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges, although recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures [23][70] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector has improved, indicating potential recovery in the near future [23][70] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector PMI showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday travel and pre-"Double Eleven" promotional activities [51][29] - The employment index within the service sector increased, suggesting a positive trend in labor market conditions [55][51] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges in manufacturing, the high inventory levels and external disturbances are expected to ease, supported by proactive fiscal policies [4][35] - The overall manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience in the long term, with ongoing monitoring of marginal changes in manufacturing conditions [4][70]

以下文章来源于债券杂志 ，作者赵伟 李欣越 债券杂志 . 《债券》是中国债券专业类金融期刊，是原国家新闻出版广电总局首批认定学术期刊。第一时间解读债 券市场最新政策，介绍国内外债券市场先进研究成果，传播金融知识与债券市场信息。 ◇ 作者：申万宏源证券首席经济学家 赵伟 申银万国证券研究所宏观高级分析师 李欣越 ◇ 本文原载《债券》2025年9月刊 本文基于跨国比较视角，探讨长端利率突破2%后的市场运行规律。研究发现，海外发达经济体长端利率下 行路径呈现显著非对称性特征。当利率进入2%以下区间后，市场通常进入震荡期而非持续下行。这是因为 政策利率下限约束、期限溢价的刚性掣肘和机构资产配置行为转变。因此，债市投研或需修正传统框架， 以应对可能的长期震荡格局。 摘 要 长端利率 分水岭效应 跨国比较 资产配置 关键词 近年来，全球低利率环境延续，我国债市出现了罕见的长期牛市。2023年以来，10年期国债收益率从 2.8%快速跌破2.0%，2025年1月6日一度跌破1.6%，下行速率仅次于2013年历史级行情。 2025年以来市场几经震荡，在2月、3月、7月屡现大幅调整。调整至今，市场观点已开始出现分歧：部分 投资者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key points from the Central Committee's suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the analysis of risks and challenges, economic growth targets, structural optimization, and the importance of national security. Economic Analysis - The suggestions highlight the complex and severe external economic environment, shifting focus from "peace and development" to "intensified great power competition" and recognizing China's ability to navigate international challenges [3][36]. - Internally, the focus has shifted from reform and innovation to addressing insufficient effective demand and structural transformation challenges, such as employment pressures and income growth [3][36]. Key Goals - The main goals include maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range, increasing the resident consumption rate, and enhancing the level of technological self-reliance and innovation [4][36]. - A new emphasis on national security has been introduced, aiming to strengthen the national security framework [4][36]. Modern Industrial System - The plan prioritizes the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries, with a focus on enhancing global competitiveness in sectors like mining and metallurgy [5][37]. - It outlines four strategic emerging industries (new energy, new materials, aerospace, low-altitude economy) and six future industries (quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth-generation mobile communication) [5][37]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Specific measures to boost domestic demand include increasing public service spending, expanding the supply of quality consumer goods, and enhancing investment in livelihood-related projects [5][37]. - The plan emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to consumption and investment to stimulate domestic circulation [5][37]. Technological Modernization - Technological modernization is defined as a crucial support for Chinese-style modernization, with a focus on seizing opportunities in the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation [6][38]. - The suggestions call for "extraordinary measures" to achieve breakthroughs in key core technologies across various sectors [6][38]. Reform and Market Construction - The construction of a unified national market is highlighted as a key reform area, aiming to eliminate barriers and promote fair competition [7][39]. - Financial and fiscal reforms are seen as essential for enhancing macroeconomic governance efficiency, with an emphasis on policy coordination [7][39]. Social Development - The suggestions focus on high-quality development in employment, income, real estate, and population, addressing structural employment issues and enhancing social security [8][40]. - Green development initiatives are emphasized, including the construction of a new energy system and the implementation of carbon reduction measures [8][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries [1][11][21]. Industrial Production Tracking - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4]. - Apparent steel consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [1][6]. - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [1]. Sector Performance - The petrochemical and consumer sectors showed improvement, with soda ash operating rates stable at 84.9%, and a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11]. - PTA operating rates increased by 0.4% to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14]. - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate improved by 1% to 73.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point to -5.7% [11]. Construction Industry Insights - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with the nationwide grinding operating rate increasing by 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4% [21]. - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [21][24]. - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased, up 1.2% week-on-week, but down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year to 0.7% [21]. Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a daily average transaction area down 5.7% week-on-week [40]. - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with rail freight volume up 1.8 percentage points to 1.5% [44]. - Passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59]. Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week, while fruit, pork, and egg prices declined [74]. - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China industrial product price index rising by 0.4% week-on-week [82].

Core Viewpoints - In September, industrial enterprises' profits continued to rise, primarily driven by low base effects and short-term factors, but when adjusted for these factors, the profit performance was weaker than in previous years [2][8] - The cumulative revenue of industrial enterprises in September showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while profits increased by 3.2% [7][90] Revenue - In September, nominal revenue for industrial enterprises improved, with all three major industrial chains showing revenue recovery. The Producer Price Index (PPI) marginally improved, leading to a nominal revenue increase [16][91] - The actual revenue growth rate, adjusted for price changes, rose by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%, contributing to a 0.3 percentage point increase in profit year-on-year [16][91] Costs - Industrial enterprises faced increasing cost pressures in September, with cost rates in the metallurgical and consumer chains remaining at historically high levels. The overall cost rate was 85.4%, indicating significant cost pressure on profits [22][91] - The cost rate for the metallurgical chain was 86.5%, and for the consumer manufacturing chain, it was 83.9%, both higher than the previous year [22][91] Industry Performance - Industries such as computer communication and automotive saw significant profit recovery, contributing 3.5 and 2.8 percentage points to overall profit growth, respectively [33][92] - Despite revenue improvements in these sectors, cost pressures remained high, with operating costs for the automotive and computer communication sectors rising by 4% and 3.8%, respectively [33][92] Outlook - The cost pressures for industrial enterprises are expected to remain high, with ongoing monitoring of the "anti-involution" policy's impact on costs. The current profit pressure is largely due to rigid cost increases from downstream investments [4][48] - Future policies aimed at stabilizing growth in sectors like construction materials and steel are anticipated to gradually alleviate cost pressures, although attention should be paid to potential negative impacts from upstream price surges [4][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in fixed asset investment in China since the second half of 2025, highlighting a broad downturn across various sectors including infrastructure, services, real estate, and manufacturing [1][10][19]. Investment Growth Decline - Fixed asset investment growth has dropped sharply by 9.1 percentage points to -6.5% in September 2025, marking a five-year low. The actual investment growth, excluding price disturbances, fell by 7.8 percentage points to -4.1% [1][10]. - Investment in broad infrastructure, services, real estate, and manufacturing has all seen declines, with respective drops of 13.1, 11.1, 9.3, and 9.1 percentage points [1][10][19]. - Specific sectors like major projects, consumer infrastructure, and manufacturing have also experienced notable declines, with infrastructure investments in IT services, public utilities, and facility management dropping around 20 percentage points [1][12]. Reasons for Investment Slowdown - The primary reason for the investment slowdown is the acceleration of debt resolution, which has occupied investment funds, explaining over half of the investment decline. The Ministry of Finance allocated 800 billion for special refinancing bonds, with issuance rising to 1.2 trillion since June, reducing available government investment funds [2][29]. - Companies have been increasing investments through debt, but the current push for debt repayment has led to a reduction in available funds for new investments. This has particularly affected state-owned enterprises, which are under pressure to clear debts more quickly [3][40]. - A lack of new projects has also contributed to the investment decline, with new and expansion projects seeing significant drops in growth rates, while renovation projects maintain a higher growth rate [4][44]. Policy Optimization Impact - Historical data suggests that debt issues can significantly constrain corporate cash flow and economic performance. The proportion of accounts receivable has risen to around 15%, with private enterprises having the highest share [5][53]. - The ongoing debt resolution process may improve corporate cash flow, potentially restoring economic momentum. Recent data shows a decline in accounts receivable growth for both private and state-owned enterprises, which could alleviate the "triangle debt" issue [5][60]. - Recent fiscal measures have introduced new funding aimed at addressing the investment decline, particularly in economically significant provinces. The central government has allocated 500 billion for local debt resolution and project construction, which may help mitigate the investment downturn [6][66].

Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - Equity assets saw a general increase, while gold prices experienced a significant decline. The S&P 500 rose by 1.9%, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.3%. In contrast, COMEX gold dropped by 3.1% to $4104.2 per ounce [1][3][39] - The U.S. initiated a 301 investigation into the first phase of the trade agreement with China, with a meeting scheduled between President Trump and Chinese officials on October 30 [1][48] - The U.S. September CPI was weaker than market expectations, with core CPI rising only 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%. The October Markit manufacturing and services PMIs showed improvements, rising to 52.2 and 55.2, respectively, indicating stronger performance compared to Europe, Japan, and the UK [1][65][76] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. cumulative fiscal deficit for 2025 reached $1.38 trillion, with total expenditures at $6.59 trillion and tax revenues at $4.16 trillion, marking an increase from the previous year [51][52] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have strengthened due to the weak CPI data, with the market anticipating two rate cuts in 2025 and three in 2026 [60][62] - The U.S. October Markit manufacturing and services PMIs rebounded, indicating that the U.S. economy remains a leader among developed countries [76]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that "Sanae Economics" under Prime Minister Takaiichi is not equivalent to "Abenomics 2.0" due to differing political and economic environments, with a focus on responsible fiscal policy rather than aggressive monetary easing [1][2][9] - Takaiichi's government plans to implement a stimulus package that may raise Japan's fiscal deficit rate from 1.3% in FY2025 to around 2.0% in FY2026, which is higher than France and the UK but lower than the US, Germany, and Greece [2][20][21] - The article highlights that Japan's actual GDP growth is expected to slightly increase to 0.9% in FY2026, driven by fiscal stimulus, with the supplementary budget potentially exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen [2][27] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to face pressure to raise interest rates, with market expectations for a 50 basis point increase in 2026, despite Takaiichi's cautious stance on monetary policy [2][45][56] - The article discusses the significant political constraints on Takaiichi's administration, including a lower approval rating and a weaker parliamentary majority compared to Abe's tenure, which may hinder policy implementation [9][17] - The economic environment has changed significantly since Abe's time, with current challenges including rising inflation and a depreciating yen, contrasting with the low inflation and interest rates during Abe's administration [17][47]