文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇、赵宇、李欣越 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 美国7月就业数据弱于市场预期，引发市场震动，核心问题在于5、6月就业的大幅下修。就业下修的背后 是统计因素，还是经济走弱？联储9月降息是否已是"板上钉钉"？ 热点思考：美国劳动力市场：脆弱的"紧平衡" 一问：美国非农数据的"预期差"？并不是7月有多差，而是5、6月没有那么好。 7月非农新增就业略弱于 预期，但关键是5、6月就业人数下修12.5、13.3万人。结构上，就业下修主要集中在政府部门。5-7月非 农就业数据卸下了美国劳动力市场"紧平衡"的"伪装"。 二问：5、6月就业为何被大幅下修？统计因素难以解释，主因是就业市场转弱。 市场猜测"统计因素"是 此次非农下修的主因。但是，经分析发现，企业生死假设、季调、回复率均无法完全解释就业下修。历 史上，非农下修往往对应着经济走弱的背景，对于此次数据或更具解释力。 三问：劳动力市场趋势如何？供需双双走弱，失业率易上难下。 美国就业市场已实质性进入"松弛化"阶 段。需求侧，失业的"流量"结果数据显示劳动力需求持续走弱；供给侧，特朗普驱逐移民、移民流入减 少可一定程度上削减就业供给，但难以完全对冲需 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 7 . 2 6 - 8 . 1 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 高频跟踪 1、汇率双周报 | 政治漩涡中的"弱势"日元？ 2、热点思考 | 反内卷，破局的"妙招"有哪些？ 3、热点思考 | 反内卷：为何需关注地方政府？ 1、财政支出提速能否持续？-6月财政数据点评 2、育儿补贴落地，影响几何？ 电话会议 热点思考 1 汇率双周报 | 政治漩涡中的"弱势"日元？ 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.7.28 6月以来，日元弱势的原因、后续可能的演绎。 2 热点思考 | 反内卷 破局的"妙招"有哪些？ 点击看全文 3、利润修复的"起点"？ ——6月工业企业效益数据点评 4、"十五五"启幕，蓝图绘新篇——7月中央政治局会议学习理解 5、7月PMI：反内卷的"悖论"？ 6、海外高频｜美日关税协议达成，发达市场多数上涨 7、国内高频 | 港口货运量仍较强 8、政策高频 | 价格法修正草案公开征求意见 9、Top Charts | 两张"反对票"——7月FOMC例会点评与展望 1、 "周见系列" 第41期:《美元大趋势》 2、 "洞见系列" ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 中央财经委会议提出"统一政府行为尺度"，为"反内卷"赋予新内涵。相比过往，本轮 "内卷" 中地方政府 为何成为主要驱动因素，其行为逻辑具体表现在哪些制度性层面？系统分析，供参考。 一、本轮"反内卷"，有何不同？政策更聚焦地方政府行为规范。 相较于 2015 年中央财经领导小组第十一次会议，2025 年中央财经委尤其强调对地方政府行为的规范。 对比两份通稿，后者更侧重规范地方政府行为，提出 "规范地方招商引资" 等具体举措。同时，会议将 "五统一、一破除" 调整为 "五统一、一开放"，核心变化体现在地方政府行为规范尺度与对外开放维度。 上述差异的形成，一方面源于 2015 年产能过剩的全局性特征，另一方面与本轮 "内卷式" 竞争中地方政 府的深度参与直接相关。 2015 年问题源于 "四万亿" 刺激后上游产业过度投资及当时的房地产下行压 力；《求是》文章指出，本轮地方政府的行为表现为打造政策洼地、盲目上马项目、设置市场壁垒。 具体来看，本轮 "内卷式" 竞争涉及的行业中，绝大多数需求呈改善或稳定态势，而非恶化趋势。 电气 机 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 报告正文 一、 李强总理：高质量建设雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程 7月18日至19日，李强总理在西藏调研。他强调，雅下水电工程体量大、周期长、影响远，堪称世纪工 程。要积极应用先进技术、装备、工艺、材料等，为高质量建设提供有力支撑，并引领相关领域科技创新和 产业创新。7月20日至22日，刘国中副总理前往广西调研，并强调要不误农时抓紧抓好农业生产工作，毫不 懈怠巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果。7月21日至23日，国务委员谌贻琴到内蒙古自治区调研，她强调，要持续铸牢 中华民族共同体意识，推动退役军人工作高质量发展。 二、《住房租赁条例》公布 7月21日，李强总理签署国务院令，公布《住房租赁条例》。《条例》共7章50条，涉及规范出租承租活 动、规范住房租赁企业行为、规范经纪机构行为、强化监督管理、严格责任追究等内容。《条例》对非居住 空间的使用、住房租赁经纪机构企业资质、住房租赁相关信息安全、资金监管、住房租赁网络平台和经纪机 构等做出了详细的规定。包含住房租赁经纪机构不得发布虚假或者误导性房源信息、住房租赁企业要按照规 定设立住房租赁资金监管账户并 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、 耿佩璇 摘要 事件 ：7月31日，国家统计局公布7月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.3%、前值49.7%；非制造业PMI为 50.1%、前值50.5%。 展望后续：7月政治局会议再次强调"反内卷"，后续重点关注中下游"反内卷"效果及内需的边际变化。 7 月PMI显示中上游"反内卷"政策仍有待进一步推进。但实际上，目前高耗能行业已集中大规模改造，"反 内卷"的更多视角或聚焦中下游。7月政治局会议再次强调"反内卷"，后续需重点关注中下游"反内卷"进 度以及内需边际变化。 常规跟踪：制造业、非制造业景气均有回落。 制造业：制造业PMI有所回落，生产、新订单指数均有下行。 7月，制造业PMI边际下行0.4pct至49.3%。 生产、新订单边际分别下行0.5、0.8pct至50.5%、49.4%。需求方面，新出口订单指数环比回落0.6个百分 点至47.1%，进口订单指数持平前月。 服务业：服务业PMI小幅回落，新订单指数表现偏弱。 7月，服务业PMI环比回落0.1pct至50%。主要分 项中，新订单指数为46.3%。与居民出行和消费相关的铁路运输、航 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outcomes of the July 30 meeting of the Central Political Bureau, emphasizing the need for policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in response to economic challenges [2][3]. Economic Performance - The meeting acknowledged the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, exceeding the annual target [2][3]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining awareness of potential risks and challenges, despite the positive economic indicators [2]. Policy Direction - The meeting stressed the need to maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating that new policies may be quickly implemented in response to economic fluctuations [3][4]. - There is a focus on promoting domestic demand and the dual circulation strategy, with an emphasis on stabilizing internal demand after a period of "grabbing exports" [3]. Macro Policy Adjustments - The meeting called for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely adjustments, particularly supporting major economic provinces to drive national growth [4]. - Fiscal policies will continue to prioritize the acceleration of government bond issuance and the effective use of funds, with a noted progress of 50.6% in new special bond issuance as of July 13 [4]. - The monetary policy will focus on reducing the overall financing costs for society, with an emphasis on structural monetary policy tools [4][6]. Focus on Key Areas - The meeting highlighted the importance of fostering service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, with a strong emphasis on "high-quality" investments [5][7]. - There is a commitment to improving consumer demand through policies that enhance living standards and expand consumption, particularly in the service sector [6]. - The meeting reiterated the need to prevent the emergence of hidden debts while promoting high-quality urban renewal and infrastructure projects [7]. Conclusion - The overall message from the meeting indicates a proactive approach to economic management, with a focus on sustaining growth through strategic policy implementation and addressing potential risks in the economic landscape [2][4][5].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows divergence, with a slight year-on-year increase in blast furnace operating rates of 1.2% [1][4] - Chemical production has declined, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 3.3 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points respectively [1][11] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate remains below last year's level, down by 0.2 percentage points [1][11] Group 2: Construction Industry - Construction activity is mixed, with nationwide grinding operating rates down by 3.9 percentage points to 6.2% [1][16] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down by 2.6 percentage points to 3.0% [1][16] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points to 0.3% [1][16] Group 3: Downstream Demand - Real estate transactions have shown a slight recovery, with average daily transaction area for new homes down by 6.1% year-on-year, but still up by 20% compared to the previous week [1][29] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has increased, with cargo and container throughput up by 5.2 percentage points and 6.3 percentage points respectively [1][34] - Passenger travel intensity has slightly increased, with the national migration scale index up by 0.4 percentage points to 17.8% [1][39] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with egg and vegetable prices up by 0.3% and 5.0% respectively, while pork and fruit prices are down by 0.2% and 2.3% [2][56] - Industrial product prices have rebounded significantly, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index up by 4.2% [2][63] - Energy and chemical price indices have increased by 4.0% and 4.1% respectively [2][63] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - National railway and highway freight volumes have increased, with year-on-year growth of 0.1 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points respectively [1][34] - Port cargo throughput continues to rise, with significant increases in both cargo and container throughput [1][34] - The overall trend in logistics indicates a recovery in freight activity [1][34] Group 6: Consumer Behavior - Cinema attendance has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 49.3% in viewer numbers [1][42] - Automotive sales show a mixed trend, with retail sales up by 2.2% while wholesale volumes are down by 17.8% [1][42] - The overall consumer spending environment is showing signs of recovery, particularly in entertainment sectors [1][42]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]

Core Viewpoints - The profit growth in June is primarily attributed to improved cost pressures and a rebound in revenue's contribution to profit year-on-year. The profit margin improved as cost pressures eased, with the profit rate rising by 4.6 percentage points to -4.4% [3][8][55] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to limit the downward space for profits, as it helps alleviate cost pressures and supports the recovery of domestic demand [4][24][56] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In June, industrial enterprises' revenue growth increased by 0.8 percentage points to 1.6% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the instrumentation, automotive, and petroleum coal processing sectors, which saw increases of 7.2, 4.2, and 3.6 percentage points respectively [5][34][57] - The actual revenue growth for the consumer manufacturing chain rose by 1 percentage point to 8.8% due to strong export support, while the coal and metallurgy chains experienced a decline in revenue growth, falling by 0.3 percentage points to -0.9% [4][20][56] Cost Structure and Inventory - The cost rate for industrial enterprises in June was 85.2%, down 32.3 basis points year-on-year, with significant reductions in the petrochemical chain's cost rate, which fell by 37.5 basis points to -0.1% [3][13][55] - Actual inventory growth saw a slight increase, with nominal inventory declining by 0.4 percentage points to 3.1% year-on-year, while actual inventory rose by 0.3 percentage points to 7.3% [42][57] Future Outlook - The ongoing "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to enhance capacity utilization and improve corporate profitability, alongside a continuous recovery in domestic demand, indicating a long-term upward trend in corporate profits [4][24][56] - Attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of "super-inflation" in upstream prices on corporate profitability, as downstream sectors face dual pressures from rigid and elastic costs [4][24][56]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the implementation of a national childcare subsidy program, which will provide an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan for children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025 [2][18] - The subsidy will be funded primarily by the central government, with local governments having the option to increase the subsidy based on local conditions [2][19] - The total fiscal requirement for the nationwide subsidy is estimated to be around 117 billion yuan, which represents approximately 0.4% of the general fiscal expenditure budget [3][19] Group 2 - The implementation of the childcare subsidy is expected to reduce childcare costs and potentially increase social retail sales by about 0.2 percentage points, particularly benefiting essential categories like maternal and infant products [3][19] - As of March 15, 2025, at least two provinces and 22 municipal-level administrative regions have already introduced their own childcare subsidy measures, often with a tiered approach favoring families with two or more children [3][20] - The article emphasizes the need for a comprehensive support system beyond cash subsidies, including policies related to employment, education, and healthcare to create a more supportive environment for families [4][21] Group 3 - The article suggests that lessons can be learned from OECD countries regarding systematic support policies for families, which could include fiscal tax support, leave policies, and childcare education support [4][21] - Future policies may also focus on ensuring family leisure time, with legislative measures to protect women's rights during pregnancy and breastfeeding, and promoting flexible work arrangements [4][21]