Core Viewpoint - The central bank's report emphasizes the need to support domestic demand and ensure a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" amidst increasing external uncertainties and inflation risks [2][15]. Economic Situation Analysis - The report highlights deepening impacts of external environmental changes, with a focus on the uncertainty of inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments [2][15]. - It stresses the importance of strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand to maintain economic stability and growth [2][15]. Policy Tone - The report continues to advocate for a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [3][16]. - It introduces the goal of promoting low financing costs for society and ensuring the health of the banking system [3][16]. Key Issues - The report discusses three types of fiscal and financial coordination measures to support domestic demand: maintaining ample liquidity, using re-loans with fiscal subsidies, and enhancing credit guarantees [4][17]. - It notes that the total assets of asset management products reached 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a 13.1% year-on-year growth, primarily directed towards interbank deposits and certificates of deposit [4][17]. Specialized Topics - The report emphasizes the need for optimizing carbon reduction support tools and advancing carbon finance product innovation to support green finance [5][17]. - It outlines the implementation of a one-time credit repair policy, which is expected to positively impact individuals, financial institutions, and the broader economy [5][17].

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 摘要 开年以来，地产、消费、投资均有积极变化。部委间财政金融政策如何协同发力扩内需、撑民企？地方政府如何抢抓"最长春节"红利？本文结合部委及地方 政策动态深入分析，可供参考。 一、地产最艰难的时段或已过去，供需拖累均有所放缓 地产部分供需数据已呈现边际修复态势，最艰难的时段或已逐步过去。 从成交与土地市场数据来看，供需端同步显现改善迹象，核心指标降幅小幅收窄。节 前3-4周，全国代表城市二手房成交面积同比降幅收窄超5个百分点至-14.7%。供给端，2025年12月政府性基金收入降幅收窄至-11.7%；土地出让收入同 比-22.9%，较11月收窄3.9个百分点。 政策层面，多维度支持政策持续发力、协同发力，着力稳定房地产市场运行。 房企监管重点更聚焦于风险处置与民生保障，形成差异化、精准化的监管导 向。媒体报道指出，目前多家房企已不再被监管部门要求每月上报"三道红线"相关指标；部分出险房企需向总部所在城市专项工作组定期汇报资产负债率等 核心财务指标，同时还需上报经营恢复进展、债务化解情况等。 地方层面，多地推出突破性政策支持商品房收储。 其中，上海市的试点举措具 ...

摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：欧央行2月例会按兵不动，金油共振上涨 金油共振上涨，港股延续下跌。 当周，标普500下跌0.1%；10Y美债收益率下行4bp；美元指数上涨0.5% 至97.6，离岸人民币升至6.93；布油价格下跌3.7%至68.1美元/桶，COMEX金价格上涨1.6%至4958.5美元/ 盎司，COMEX银价格下跌9.4%至76.77美元/盎司。 欧央行2月例会按兵不动，美国12月职位空缺弱于市场预期。 欧央行2月议息会议维持利率不变，欧央行 行长拉加德表示关注欧元走势，可能影响通胀；美国12月JOLT职位空缺654.2万人，市场预期725万人， 金融保险、零售贸易、专业商业服务业空缺率回落幅度最为显著。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：欧央行2月例会按兵不动，金油共振上涨 （一）大类资产：金油共振上涨，港股延续下跌 当周，发达市场股指多数上涨、新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指方面，道琼斯工业平均、法国 CAC40、日经225分别上涨2.5%、1.8%、1.7%；新兴市场股指方面，开罗CASE30、泰国SET指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8 will significantly impact Japan's political landscape and debt risk, with a cautious approach expected to avoid a "Truss moment" [2][8]. Group 1: Election Dynamics - The election features three main factions: the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, the Center-Left Reform Alliance, and other opposition parties [2][3]. - The LDP, led by Prime Minister Kishi, is projected to maintain a strong position, with a 99% probability of Kishi continuing as Prime Minister and an 81% chance of the LDP securing over 250 seats [2][3][13]. - Three potential outcomes are anticipated: 1. LDP gains a larger majority, reducing the need for excessive fiscal stimulus and minimizing debt shock risks [3]. 2. LDP sees a slight increase in seats, leading to moderate debt risk due to necessary cooperation with opposition parties [3]. 3. LDP loses seats, increasing policy uncertainty and fiscal cliff risks [3][20]. Group 2: Post-Election Macro Policy - Post-election, Japan's macro policy will remain focused on fiscal expansion, but with a more cautious approach to stabilize debt risks and avoid market volatility [4][24]. - A key commitment is the reduction of the food tax, with a proposal to suspend it for two years, although this may be moderated post-election to alleviate market concerns [4][26]. - The government plans to enhance critical mineral reserve systems and establish a Japanese version of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to scrutinize foreign investments [4][32]. Group 3: Debt Risk Assessment - Japan's sovereign debt risk is relatively low, with a projected debt-to-GDP ratio of 230% by 2025, and interest payments constituting 1.49% of GDP in 2024 [5][37]. - The potential suspension of the food tax could create a 5 trillion yen deficit, representing 17% of new bond issuance [5][37]. - Japan's status as a net creditor, with a net international investment position of 84% of GDP, and a low foreign ownership of government bonds (14%) contribute to its lower debt risk perception [5][43].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the end of the QE era, highlighting the transition from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) and the implications for monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve has undergone four rounds of QE and two rounds of QT from 2008 to 2026, with total assets expected to remain above $6 trillion by the end of 2025 [2]. - The shift from a "scarce reserves" framework to a "ample reserves" framework has changed the operational approach of the Federal Reserve, where policy rates are now the primary indicator of monetary policy rather than the balance sheet [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The article suggests that a return to QE or Yield Curve Control (YCC) may be necessary if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to zero, indicating that the QE era may be over until the next crisis [3]. - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is not a one-way street; it can contract as well as expand, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3]. Group 3: Economic Growth Targets - The article notes that various provinces and cities in China have set GDP growth targets averaging 5.1% for 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to economic recovery [19]. - The targets indicate a slight downward adjustment compared to previous years, with some regions aiming for better-than-expected results [19].

Core Viewpoint - Understanding the economy in 2026 requires grasping the three guiding principles of "solidifying the foundation, comprehensive efforts, and strategic initiative" [2] Group 1: Solidifying the Foundation and Comprehensive Efforts - The term "solidifying the foundation" refers to the consolidation and deepening of the industrial system, market foundation, and institutional framework established since the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - "Comprehensive efforts" indicates an acceleration in the implementation of policies related to development and reform [3] - The strategic initiative will enhance the proactive nature of national policies, particularly in coordinating domestic economic work with international trade dynamics and increasing openness in relevant fields [3] Group 2: Service Consumption and Emerging Investments - The two main supports for economic growth in 2026 are the continuous release of service demand on the consumption side and the acceleration of "new" infrastructure and green transformation investments on the investment side [4] - Service consumption is expected to expand significantly as GDP per capita surpasses $10,000, leading to a shift from goods consumption to service consumption [4] - Investment in three key areas is crucial: 1. Continuous investment in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, high-end equipment, and biomanufacturing, where China has established global advantages [5] 2. "New" infrastructure focusing on enhancing economic system efficiency, such as digitalization to reduce logistics costs and improving transportation hubs [5] 3. Green transformation investments aligned with carbon neutrality goals, including carbon tracking and upgrades to power grids to adapt to new energy systems [5] Group 3: Opportunities from Service Sector Opening - The service sector is not only a growth engine but also a vast "investment blue ocean" and innovation platform [6] - The release of service consumption requires physical scene support, with significant room for improvement in public facilities like sports and cultural venues [6] - The opening of the service sector can stimulate consumption, drive investment, promote employment, and foster innovation, particularly among the younger generation [6] - Specific industry opportunities include addressing the needs arising from demographic changes, such as healthcare and wellness services for the elderly and quality lifestyle experiences for the younger generation [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that global fiscal policies are shifting towards expansionary measures, driven by geopolitical and security concerns, which may redefine the boundaries of monetary independence and debt sustainability [1][9]. Group 2 - In 2025, global fiscal policies in the US, Europe, and Japan are transitioning from counter-cyclical to cross-cyclical, with a significant expansion of fiscal goals to include supply-side restructuring and defense spending [2][10]. - The constraints on fiscal expansion are weakening, as political pressures reduce the motivation for debt restraint, and the risk of debt default is low for developed sovereign currency nations [2][24]. Group 3 - By 2026, fiscal policies in developed economies will focus on supply-side investments, particularly in defense, AI, and infrastructure, marking a shift from traditional demand-side fiscal measures [3][52]. - The fiscal impulse in 2026 is expected to be stronger than in typical non-recession years, with Japan's deficit rate projected to rise to 3.2%, the US to 6.8%, and Germany to 4.0% [3][93]. Group 4 - The expansion of fiscal policies is characterized by a focus on defense spending, with Germany's defense budget expected to increase by 25% and the US by 10% in 2026 [3][71]. - The US will implement significant tax cuts, with a total reduction of $396 billion in 2026, a 47.7% increase from 2025, aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [61][64]. Group 5 - The dual nature of expansionary fiscal policies presents both growth opportunities and risks, as the accumulation of debt may challenge the independence of central banks [5][112]. - The economic recovery driven by fiscal expansion may not follow traditional patterns, as the reliance on government support could lead to increased systemic risks and a divergence between public and private sector growth [5][125].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair and his proposed policy of "rate cuts + balance sheet normalization," highlighting the complexities and contradictions of this approach in the context of the current monetary policy landscape [1]. Group 1: Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has undergone significant balance sheet expansion, implementing four rounds of quantitative easing (QE) and two rounds of quantitative tightening (QT) [2]. - As of November 2025, the Federal Reserve's total assets reached $6.6 trillion, which is over seven times the level in early 2008 and 1.7 times the level at the end of QT1 in September 2019 [2]. - The December 2025 FOMC meeting marked the beginning of a "normalization of expansion" phase, with initial monthly purchases set at $40 billion, potentially slowing to $20-25 billion by May [2]. Group 2: RMP vs. QE - RMP (Reserve Management Purchases) is fundamentally different from QE in terms of quantity, quality, and market implications; RMP aims to maintain sufficient reserve supply without affecting monetary policy stance, while QE is a non-standard tool aimed at lowering long-term interest rates [3]. - RMP operates under a "sufficient reserves" framework, contrasting with the "scarcity of reserves" approach used prior to the financial crisis, which relied on frequent open market operations to control interest rates [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Framework and Implications - The transition to a "sufficient reserves" framework has decoupled policy interest rates from reserve quantities, indicating that the policy interest rate remains the key indicator of monetary policy stance rather than the amount of reserves [5]. - The effectiveness of controlling interest rates, the cost of the balance sheet, and the frequency of open market operations present a "trilemma" for the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 4: End of the QE Era - The article posits that the QE era may have ended, with future monetary policy likely requiring a return to zero interest rates as a necessary condition for reinitiating QE or yield curve control (YCC) [6]. - The Federal Reserve's ability to shrink its balance sheet will depend on reserve demand and the duration of securities held, with zero interest rates being a critical factor for effective QE implementation [6]. Group 5: Market Implications - RMP's impact on capital markets is characterized as indirect and defensive, potentially reducing the likelihood of stock market sell-offs due to liquidity shocks, but not fundamentally altering market direction [7]. - The article suggests that attention should be focused on the dollar rather than the balance sheet in both the short and long term, as interest rates play a more significant role in a non-zero interest rate environment [1].

Group 1 - The average GDP growth target for 2026 across twenty provinces is set at 5.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the 2025 target, but an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the actual growth rate in 2025, indicating a more pragmatic and positive outlook [2][11][44] - Eight regions, including Beijing and Shandong, have set their GDP growth targets at around 5% or higher, while Hainan and Xinjiang lead with targets of approximately 6% and 5.5%-6%, respectively [2][11][44] - Economic powerhouses like Guangdong, Henan, and Zhejiang have adopted a more optimistic tone in their reports, emphasizing efforts to achieve better results in their economic performance [3][11][44] Group 2 - Investment growth targets show significant regional differentiation, with western regions like Xinjiang setting a high target of around 8%, while coastal provinces generally aim for around 5% [4][15][44] - Most regions have set their retail sales growth targets above the actual performance in 2025, with notable increases in targets for Henan and Xinjiang, while Hebei and Guangdong maintain targets around 5% [20][44] - Employment remains a priority, with provinces like Guangdong, Shandong, and Henan setting ambitious targets for new urban jobs, while environmental indicators are becoming more stringent, with specific PM2.5 concentration targets set by Beijing and Shandong [5][27][44] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand is still the primary task, shifting focus from physical consumption to a balance of goods and services, with policies like "trade-in" becoming normalized [6][29][44] - Service consumption is being elevated, with various regions focusing on "first-release economy" and "silver economy" to create new demand [6][29][44] - The concept of "new quality productivity" is gaining traction, with regions leveraging their unique advantages for differentiated development, such as Beijing focusing on AI and quantum technology, while Zhejiang aims to create a national-level integrated circuit cluster [6][29][44]

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 | 时间 | 事件 | 核心方面 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 家政服务。支持符合条件的家政服务企业创新服务模式、探索智慧化场景、拓展居家养老服务。 | | | | | 鼓励地方发布家政服务规范协议 ... | | | 《加快培 | 重点领域 | 汽车后市场服务。推动汽车流通消费领域全链条创新发展，选择部分城市开展试点，支持在汽车 后市场重点领域先行先试，加快清理限制性措施，探索开展汽车改装分级分类管理，健全传统经 | | | 育服务消 | | 典车认定体系,加强房车露营基地建设,研究完善相关管理制度、技术标准 ... | | 2026/ | 费新增长 | | 演出服务。优化演出管理,科学合理设置安全容量限制,持续推进跨地区巡演。探索将具备条件 | | 1/29 | 点工作方 | | 目有意愿的演出团体、专业剧场调整为公益二类事业单位，建立健全激励机制 ... | | | 案》 | 潜力领域 | 体育赛事服务。优化改进大型群众性活动安全管理，分级分类合理核定赛场安全容量，用于划设 | | | | | 治安 ...