作者丨 Julia Ostian 编译 | 华尔街大事件 Uber （ NYSE： UBER ）的 2025年第一季度业绩报告 在市场引发强烈反应，其股价在盘前交易 中下跌逾4%。 Uber 公布的 营收为 115.3 亿美元，略低于 116.2 亿美元的市场预期。但坏消息也仅此而已。其 他方面都好于预期。每股收益为 0.83 美元，超出预期 60% 以上。调整后息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA) 达到创纪录的 19 亿美元（同比增长 35%），自由现金流超过 23 亿美元。Uber 的净 现金也首次转为正值，从一年前的负 11 亿美元转为正值 4.01 亿美元。 此外，首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨西强调，公司不满足于"良好"，而是追求"卓越"，并指出本季度 业绩表现强劲，包括新品发布、合作伙伴关系拓展以及创纪录的利润率。团队并未对收入未达预 期的情况辩解，而是强调了持续的出行增长、高用户参与度以及强劲的国际扩张。首席财务官普 拉尚特·马亨德拉-拉贾（Prashant Mahendra-Rajah）明确阐述了公司的优先事项：在不牺牲自动 驾驶汽车、外送和全球市场增长投资的情况下，推动利润率的可持续增长。 除其他 ...

从中长期来看，服务业务将成为主要的增长引擎，尽管增幅较去年同期低了约2.5个百分点。今 年最强劲的增长来自iPad，但iPad的波动性可能受产品发布时机和供应链问题的影响。主要问题 是，尽管推出了Apple Intelligence，并且价格更高的iPhone 16e基本取代了iPhone SE，但 iPhone在这方面的表现却有些停滞。随着苹果推出更多AI功能并将其推广到更多国家，人们希望 这款智能手机至少能够实现中等个位数的增长。 作者 | Bill Maurer 编译 | 华尔街大事件 上周， 苹果公司（ NASDAQ： AAPL ）发布截至3月底的第二财季业绩 。正如投资者普遍习惯 的那样，财报显示其营收和净利润均超出预期，但这主要是由于 自上一季度财报发布以来预期有 所下调。这家科技巨头目前的问题是，它没有显示出任何有意义的增长迹象，导致其股价近期表 现远逊于大盘。 下表显示了本季度主要业绩与前两个财季（截至3月）的对比情况。变化栏表示2024财年第二季 度至2025财年第二季度的同比变化，利润率和税率的变化则表示这两个时期之间的实际百分比 差异。 | Key Financials (m) | Q2 ...

通过前美联储副主席、现任Pimco高级顾问 Richard Clarida 的观点，文章暗示， 美联储将密切 关注劳动力市场的变化，将就业数据作为其决策的重要参考： "美联储不会因为预计经济放缓而提前降息，他们需要看到实际数据，尤其是在劳动力 市场。" 前美联储理事Lael Brainard也认为： "七年来，鲍威尔领导的美联储有一个等待非常确定的数据然后快速行动的记录。我认 为如果你看到劳动力市场明显恶化，美联储将准备行动。" Timiraos指出，美联储在设定利率时，有时会侧重于最大化最好的结果，例如在通胀下降时降 息；有时则会侧重于最小化最坏的结果，比如在2022-2023年为了抑制高通胀而激进加息，甚至 不惜牺牲经济增长。 文章强调，关税可能会迫使美联储"走上后一条道路"。 因为关税可能会在短期内推高物价，其不 确定性也会减缓经济活动，带来滞胀的苗头，这可能使美联储暂缓降息。 来源 | 华尔街见闻 在美联储本周四公布利率决议前夕，周一，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos发表最新报道，深度剖析了 美联储在应对特朗普政府"草率"关税政策时所面临的两难境 地，暗示美联储可能会暂 ...

来源 | 美股研究社 美股市场迎来一场罕见的中概股领逆市涨强风。 美东时间5月6日，美国三大股指全线收跌，其中大型金融股、科技股多数下跌，拖累美股表现。 但在这种大基调下，中国自动驾驶企业小马智行（PONY.OQ）一度超47%的涨幅领涨市场，文远 知行（WRD.OQ）也单日暴涨31.68%。全天热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨 0.42%，表现相对较强。 这场资本偏爱的导火索，是两家公司同日宣布与全球网约车巨头Uber达成战略合作：文远知行计 划未来五年增加15座国际城市部署Robotaxi服务；小马智行Robotaxi服务和车队则将于下半年在 中东市场率先接入Uber平台，加速自动驾驶技术商业化落地。 从 阿 联 酋 到 欧 洲 ： 文 远 知 行 用 " 沙 漠 智 驾 " 征 服 U b e r 作为迄今全球唯一拥有覆盖阿联酋全国范围全车型自动驾驶牌照的Robotaxi企业，文远知行与 Uber的合作始于2024年9月。 同年12月双方率先在阿布扎比推出Robotaxi公开运营服务，正式开启商业化运营。 这是全球最大的移动出行及配送科技平台Uber首次在美国以外地区上线自动驾驶车辆，也是美国 ...

整理 | 美股研究社 在这个快速变化的时代，人工智能技术正以前所未有的速度发展，带来了广泛的机会 。《AI日报 》致力于挖掘和分析最新的AI概念股公司和市场趋势，为您提供深度的行业 洞察和价值 分析。 A I 快 报 1.Tempus AI一季度调整后每股亏损0.24美元，分析师预期亏损0.26美元。 一季度净营收2.557亿美元，分析师预期2.485亿美元。 2.黄仁勋：中国AI芯片市场规模有望达到500亿美元。 英伟达CEO黄仁勋称，中国人工智能 （AI）芯片市场规模有望达到500亿美元。 因此，进入中国市场对美国公司至关重要。世界"渴望人工智能。让我们现在就把美国的人工智 能展现在所有人面前。" 黄仁勋强调，英伟达始终尊重并遵守各国政府政策，但同时呼吁企业在政策框架内保持灵活性， 以应对快速变化的市场需求。 黄仁勋的表态反映出企业在技术竞争与政策博弈中的复杂立场，同时也凸显了中国市场在全球AI 产业中的战略价值。 英伟达转涨，日内稍早一度跌2.6%。 3.5月6日，微软推出了两款新一代Copilot+ PC，它们无需联网即可运行人工智能（AI）模型。 这些设备的外观与早期版本的用户相似。一款是Surfa ...

Core Viewpoint - AMD's stock price has been on a downward trend for the past nine months, falling below significant long-term support levels, despite a strong rebound from its April low of approximately $75 per share [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, AMD reported revenue of $7.44 billion, a year-over-year increase of 36% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 3%, exceeding market expectations of $7.12 billion, driven by strong sales of EPYC CPUs, Instinct Mi300 AI GPUs, and Ryzen processors [4][5]. - The gross profit for Q1 2025 was $3.74 billion, up 46% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 50%, which is a 3 percentage point increase from the previous year [5]. - Operating income reached $806 million, a significant increase of 2,139% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 11% [5]. - Net income for Q1 2025 was $709 million, up 476% from the previous year, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $0.44, a 529% increase [5]. Segment Performance - The Data Center segment generated revenue of $3.67 billion, up 57% year-over-year, primarily due to growth in EPYC CPU and Instinct GPU sales [6]. - The Client and Gaming segment revenue was $2.94 billion, a 28% increase year-over-year, with Client revenue specifically rising by 68% [6]. - The Embedded segment saw a slight decline in revenue, down 3% year-over-year to $823 million [6]. Future Outlook - AMD's management expects Q2 2025 revenue to be around $7.4 billion, indicating a slowdown in growth to approximately 26%, although this guidance exceeds the general market expectation of $7.24 billion [8]. - The company anticipates strong performance in the Data Center market in the second half of 2025, driven by the Mi350x AI GPU, with a projected market share of 5-10% in the AI chip market by 2027, which is expected to reach $400 billion [7][9]. Shareholder Returns - AMD generated $727 million in free cash flow in Q1 2025, with a free cash flow margin of about 10%, and returned $749 million to shareholders through stock buybacks [10]. - The company has a buyback authorization of approximately $4 billion and a net cash balance exceeding $3 billion, indicating potential for continued shareholder returns [10]. Valuation and Investment Thesis - Following the strong Q1 2025 results, AMD's fair value estimate has increased from $151 to $162 per share, suggesting a potential upside of about 64% from current levels [14]. - Analysts project a five-year target price of approximately $291 per share, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 24.1% [14]. - Despite challenges in the semiconductor industry, AMD's expected CAGR exceeds the analyst's investment hurdle rate of 15%, making it an attractive accumulation opportunity at current levels [15].

诚然，中国市场在2024年仍然贡献了171亿美元的销售收入，这部分收入相当可观。但从目前的 整体情况来看，这只是一个很小的部分。世界其他地区（根据目前的ADR，其他第三组国家/地 区也属于这些地区）的贡献甚至更小。估计目前的ADR限制性措施可能会对英伟达 造成约10% 的直接影响，这主要源于其在中国数据中心的投入，这主要归功于其H20 AI GPU。NVDA在华 的其他销售额来自与ADR不太相关的领域（例如游戏、汽车、工作站市场等）。 出于一些考虑，我预计特朗普政府会在5月15日宣布减少ADR的限制。将ADR从目前 的分级制度转变为其他制度（例如政府间许可协议），可以成为这些双边协议中强有 力的筹码。因此，预计修订后的ADR将对英伟达 构成利好因素，并可能在5月15日发 布后引发股价大幅上涨。 但即使新的 ADR 对 英伟达的有利程度不如分析师上面预期的那样，预计下行空间仍将有限，原 因有几个。 首先，英伟达 股票的估值倍数被过度压缩。从下图可以看出，该股目前的第一财年市盈率为 26 倍，远低于近年来 36 倍的历史平均市盈率。如果考虑到增长预期，估值折让就更加明显。例 如，Magic 7 目前的 PEG 比 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's performance in Q1 2024 was generally in line with expectations, with a notable increase in AWS profit margins, but a decline in retail profitability, particularly in North America, indicating a shift from a profit release cycle to an investment cycle [11][12]. AWS Performance - AWS revenue growth was 16.9% year-over-year, a slowdown of 2 percentage points from the previous quarter and below market expectations of 17.3% [4][13]. - Despite the revenue slowdown, AWS's operating profit margin was unexpectedly strong at 39.5%, exceeding both previous quarter results and market expectations by 2.6 percentage points and 4 percentage points, respectively [5][17]. - The market remains skeptical about AWS's ability to accelerate growth in the second half of the year due to supply constraints in high-performance GPU and data center capabilities [15][19]. Retail Performance - The overall retail segment revenue was $126.4 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 6.9%, reflecting a decline of 2.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][19]. - North American retail growth decreased from 9.5% to 7.6%, indicating weakening consumer demand, while international retail nominal growth dropped to 4.9% [6][19]. - Subscription services showed resilience with a 9.6% year-over-year growth, while advertising revenue grew by 17.7%, both outperforming market expectations [7][19]. Profitability Insights - The company achieved an overall operating profit of $18.4 billion, slightly above market expectations of $17.5 billion [27]. - North American retail operating profit margin fell to 6.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous quarter, while international retail margins remained stable at 3% [29][32]. - The increase in capital expenditures (Capex) to $26 billion indicates ongoing high investment levels, which may impact short-term profitability [35]. Future Guidance - For the next quarter, Amazon expects revenue in the range of $159 billion to $164 billion, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 9.1%, which is stronger than anticipated given the expected tariff impacts [8][9]. - However, the guidance for operating profit suggests a decline in profit margins, indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability across both retail and AWS segments [9][12].

作者 | JR Research 编译 | 华尔街大事件 台积电（NYSE：TSM） 不仅是半导体行业的领军企业，更是 价值链中至关重要的参与者。 苹果需要台积电来生产芯片。英伟达也需要台积电来生产芯片。 AMD 也是如此，它试图在数据 中心市场抢占更大的市场份额，同时试图 撼动英伟达 在数据中心 AI 芯片领域的主导地位。 就连英特尔也依赖台积电来缓解其在代工领域面临的挑战，同时在新任首席执行官陈立武（Lip- Bu Tan）的领导下实施扭亏为盈战略。有人质疑 英特尔能否在台积电找到制造合作伙伴 ，帮助 其扭转代工领域的困境。然而， 台积电在2025年4月的第一季度财报会议上也明确表示，媒体的 猜测或许有些过头了。 尽管如此，对于人工智能资本支出逆风是否可能在2026年之后再次抬头的担忧仍不能完全被淡 化。毕竟，唐纳德·特朗普总统已经启动了半导体行业的关税调查，投资者必须认真对待白宫急于 征收这些关税以迫使更多制造业转移到国内的现实。 市场对台积电在4月触底（解放日当 周）后的未来走势更加有信心 。台积电的表现也优于其他半 导体同行（ SMH ），凸显了市场对这家代工龙头的信心。毕竟，该公司不仅实现了35% ...

Core Viewpoint - Airbnb's performance in Q1 2025 was disappointing, with key operational metrics showing a significant slowdown, indicating a broader trend of weakening performance across the company [4][10]. Group 1: Key Operational Metrics - Total Gross Booking Value (GBV) for the quarter was $24.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 7%, marking the first time post-pandemic that growth fell below 10% [4]. - The total nights booked increased by just 7.9% year-on-year, with a notable sequential decline of 6.4 percentage points [4]. - The Average Daily Rate (ADR) decreased by approximately 0.9% year-on-year, the first decline since Q4 2022, primarily due to currency exchange rate impacts [5]. Group 2: Regional Performance - North America experienced the most significant demand weakness, with night bookings growing by only low single digits. In contrast, South America and Asia-Pacific regions showed robust growth, with night bookings increasing by over 20% and around 15%, respectively [5][6]. - The overall night booking growth rate would have reached 11% if North America was excluded from the calculations, highlighting the importance of emerging markets in offsetting declines in mature markets [5]. Group 3: Revenue and Monetization - Revenue for the quarter was $2.27 billion, a 6.1% year-on-year increase, but this growth lagged behind the GBV growth, indicating a bottleneck in monetization [6][8]. - The take rate, or monetization rate, slightly decreased by 8 basis points year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decline, suggesting challenges in the company's ability to convert bookings into revenue [6][10]. Group 4: Profitability and Costs - Despite increased investments in new business initiatives, profitability continued to shrink, with adjusted EBITDA margin declining by approximately 1.4 percentage points to 18.4% [6][10]. - Marketing and product development expenses grew by 8% and 17% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing revenue growth and contributing to the decline in profit margins [6][10]. Group 5: Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, the company guided a revenue midpoint of $3.02 billion, implying a year-on-year growth of about 10%, although this includes a favorable impact from the timing of Easter [7][8]. - The company anticipates a continued slight slowdown in night booking growth and a stable ADR, with adjusted EBITDA expected to remain flat or slightly decline compared to the previous year [8][10].