Core Viewpoint - The article narrates the investment journey of an individual who transitioned from a novice to a more knowledgeable investor through learning and adopting a structured asset allocation strategy known as the "Three-Fund Method" [2][3][4]. Investment Journey - The individual began investing in 2019 by purchasing a healthcare index fund through a bank's financial advisor, which resulted in a significant loss of 45% on an initial investment of 120,000 yuan by July 2022 [5][6]. - This experience highlighted the risks associated with single-asset investments and prompted a search for a more balanced and stable investment approach [5]. Introduction to Three-Fund Method - The individual discovered the "Three-Fund Method" during a period of confusion, which emphasizes the importance of asset allocation and risk diversification [7]. - The method categorizes assets into three main classes: stocks, bonds, and commodities, allowing for effective risk management and stable returns [7][8]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The individual developed a personal asset allocation strategy, termed the "Stable 5 Portfolio," consisting of 80% bonds, 10% stocks, and 10% commodities, aimed at achieving over 5% annual returns while limiting drawdowns to within 2% [9][10]. - This allocation strategy focuses on stability, with bonds providing a steady income, stocks offering growth potential, and commodities serving as a hedge against inflation [9][10]. Family Support and Trust - As the individual's investment philosophy matured, the positive results began to influence family financial decisions, leading to increased trust and support from family members regarding investment strategies [11]. - The individual emphasizes the importance of patience and consistent investment practices, which have contributed to a growing investment portfolio exceeding one million yuan [11]. Key Insights - The individual stresses the importance of understanding one's own financial situation and risk tolerance before making investment decisions, advocating for a cautious approach to investing [14][15]. - The article concludes with a reminder that investing is a long-term endeavor, and the essence of investment lies in transferring current resources to future value [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses investment strategies for a personal investor with 5 million yuan in idle funds, emphasizing the importance of safety and realistic return expectations in the current market environment [2][4]. Investment Strategy - The investor has a time horizon of at least 3-5 years and seeks to maintain capital safety while accepting a 10-15% volatility with an expected annual return of 5-6% [6][10]. - Achieving a 5-6% annual return while ensuring capital safety is possible but not guaranteed, as it may involve accepting potential capital losses [6][7]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - Certain products should be avoided, such as insurance products due to their complex terms and low returns, and short-term debt or cash products which do not meet the return expectations [12][13]. - Recommended investment options include: - Bank wealth management products, particularly those with multi-asset strategies, which can provide better risk-return profiles [13]. - Securities firm asset management products that offer fixed income plus strategies, requiring careful selection and professional advice [13]. - Public and private equity products, as well as broad-based indices, which can be suitable for long-term investment but require professional guidance for selection [14]. Specific Investment Suggestions - The investor is advised to allocate funds into a diversified portfolio, with a suggested allocation of 25% in global assets, 25% in quantitative strategies, and 50% in fixed income [19][20]. - The investment should be executed in phases, with an initial investment of 30-50% of the total amount, followed by gradual investments based on market conditions and advice from the investment manager [23][24]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks involved in investment and the need for a well-thought-out strategy that aligns with the investor's financial goals and risk tolerance [9][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing popularity and strong performance of Bridgewater's All Weather strategy, highlighting its appeal to investors and the challenges faced in accessing these investment products [6][8][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 3900-point mark, indicating a bullish sentiment in the A-share market [5]. - Bridgewater's All Weather strategy products have shown exceptional performance, with the worst product line yielding annual returns between 10% and 14%, and an average return of approximately 16% [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The All Weather strategy relies on a risk parity model, diversifying across asset classes to achieve balance, which helps mitigate significant cyclical volatility while providing decent returns [9]. - The strategy's success is attributed to its ability to adapt to different market conditions, where typically, when the stock market declines, the bond market rises, and inflation-hedging assets like gold appreciate [9]. Group 3: Alternative Strategies - Several domestic managers have successfully localized the All Weather strategy, offering various macro-hedging strategies that replicate the classic risk parity model [10]. - The macro-hedging strategies focus on trading core assets in the US and China, utilizing a combination of beta (70%) and alpha (30%) models to capture short-term opportunities [10]. Group 4: Quantitative Models - The beta component constructs a macro risk-balanced investment portfolio based on economic growth and inflation, ensuring that no single asset class dominates the portfolio [11]. - The alpha component enhances returns through unique factor libraries and quantitative models, including CTA and multi-factor models, aiming to improve the overall Sharpe ratio and return-to-drawdown ratio [13]. Group 5: Risk Management - The strategies employ a systematic approach to risk management, with a focus on maintaining a balanced exposure across various asset classes while controlling overall portfolio volatility [18][25]. - The investment strategy covers a wide range of liquid assets, including equities, bonds, and commodities, with a target to keep overall volatility within 8% [24].

Market Overview - The market showed signs of recovery after a dip, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.45%, and ChiNext Index up 0.68% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 64 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - More than 3,600 stocks rose, with sectors like robotics, internet e-commerce, and logistics leading the gains, while pork, non-ferrous metals, and film sectors saw declines [2] Company Spotlight:药捷安康 -药捷安康's stock price surged by 63% to 679.5 HKD, marking a five-day increase of 863%, before experiencing a sharp drop of 53.73%, reducing its market capitalization to 762 billion HKD [4][6] - Since its IPO on June 23, the stock price has increased 50 times from the initial price of 13.15 HKD [6] - The company was included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on September 8, leading to significant inflows from northbound funds, which increased their holdings to over 15% by September 16 [6] - The company announced a clinical trial approval for its core product, resulting in a 27% stock price increase on the announcement day [6] - Currently, all of the company's products are in phase II or III clinical trials, with projected revenue of zero for 2024 and pre-tax losses of 275 million yuan [6][7] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector saw a significant rise, with companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control hitting the daily limit and Top Group increasing over 7% [8] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk purchased over 2.5 million shares of Tesla, valued at approximately 1 billion USD, indicating confidence in the company's robotics and autonomous driving initiatives [11] - Tesla's board proposed a new compensation plan for Musk, potentially worth 1 trillion USD, contingent on the delivery of 1 million humanoid robots by September 2025 [11] - Domestic news includes Yushutech's announcement of an open-source world model for general robotics, which could enhance investment opportunities in the sector [11] Gold Market - Spot gold prices reached a historic high of 3,690 USD per ounce, with predictions of reaching an average of 3,800 USD in Q4 2025 and potentially exceeding 4,000 USD in Q1 2026 [13] - JPMorgan Chase highlighted that investor demand has become the primary catalyst for rising gold prices, with significant inflows into gold ETFs [13] - Recent data showed a substantial increase in global gold ETF holdings, with nearly 72 tons added in a two-week period, marking the largest inflow since mid-April [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of dividend stocks and technology sectors in the current market, highlighting the significant gains in technology indices while dividend indices lag behind, raising questions about the role of dividend strategies in investment portfolios [5][12]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - Since the beginning of the year, technology indices such as the Sci-Tech Innovation Index and the ChiNext Index have seen increases of 43.66% and 42.73%, respectively, while the dividend index has only risen by 3.50% [5]. - The article presents a performance comparison of dividend indices against major indices from February 18, 2021, to September 14, 2024, showing that dividend indices outperformed most major indices during downtrends but struggled during market recoveries [11][12]. - The dividend low volatility index achieved a return of 81.39% since 2021, outperforming many other indices during the downtrend period [11]. Group 2: Long-term Value of Dividend Strategies - The article emphasizes that dividend indices have a long-term effective strategy, having been adjusted to a "dividend yield weighted" rule since 2013, which favors stable, cash-rich companies [14]. - Since 2005, the annualized return of the CSCI Dividend Total Return Index has been approximately 12.7%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300's 9.1% [15]. - Dividend indices serve a defensive role in investment portfolios, providing stability and cash flow during market downturns, which is essential for maintaining investor confidence [16][18]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning of Dividend Stocks - Investors are advised to recognize the defensive and cash flow characteristics of dividend indices rather than expecting them to perform like growth stocks during bull markets [21]. - A balanced portfolio strategy combining dividend indices with growth indices can achieve a better risk-return profile, as dividend stocks provide stability while growth stocks offer potential for higher returns [22]. - Maintaining a long-term perspective and emotional discipline is crucial for investors, as short-term underperformance of dividend stocks should not lead to panic or strategy changes [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that while volatility is often equated with risk, it can also represent potential returns depending on the investor's perspective [6][34]. Group 1: Academic Perspective on Volatility - Volatility is defined as risk in traditional finance, where it represents the uncertainty of future returns [7][9]. - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, taking into account the risk taken to achieve returns [8][10]. - Historical volatility is used to quantify risk, with higher volatility indicating greater risk and necessitating higher expected returns [11][12]. Group 2: Practical Perspective on Volatility - Warren Buffett and other value investors argue against equating volatility with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [15][18]. - The article presents a dichotomy where risk-averse investors view volatility as something to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][34]. - Different investment strategies are discussed, including those that embrace volatility for potential gains, such as grid trading and trend trading [31][32]. Group 3: Trading Perspective on Volatility - Volatility can be viewed as a tradable commodity, with options pricing reflecting historical volatility [26][27]. - The article explains that risk is a commodity that can be bought and sold, with different strategies catering to varying attitudes towards volatility [25][28]. - The concept of "volatility = returns" is explored, indicating that higher volatility can lead to greater profit opportunities for certain investors [22][24]. Group 4: Conclusion on Volatility - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, influencing investor behavior and creating opportunities for profit [39][40]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding what can be controlled and what cannot in the context of volatility and investment strategies [38][39].

Market Overview - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23% and the ChiNext Index up 1.52% [2] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.28 trillion, a decrease of 245.8 billion from the previous trading day [2] Key Company Highlights - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) saw its stock price surge over 14%, reaching a historical high of 371.52 CNY per share, resulting in an increase of nearly 140 billion CNY in market capitalization since September 12 [5] - CATL's guidance for 2026 production was raised to 1.1 TWh, indicating over 50% growth, which significantly exceeded market expectations and confirmed optimistic demand forecasts for lithium batteries [7] Industry Trends - The new action plan for large-scale construction of new energy storage, aiming for an installed capacity of over 180 million kW by 2027, is expected to drive direct investment of approximately 250 billion CNY [7] - The pre-prepared food market in China reached a scale of 485 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 33.8%, and is projected to exceed 617.3 billion CNY in 2025 [10] - A national food safety standard for pre-prepared foods is set to be released, addressing previous concerns about safety and labeling, which could enhance consumer trust and market penetration [12][13] Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported analog chips from the U.S., which may improve the market environment for domestic manufacturers [16] - The analog chip industry is currently in an upward cycle, with demand expected to grow due to emerging applications such as AI data centers and autonomous driving [17]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for August indicates a weak demand for financing in the real economy, with signs of improvement in corporate long-term investments, while consumer confidence remains low, leading to a "deposit migration" phenomenon influenced by the performance of the capital market [12][13]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Data - The total social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, slightly above market expectations, but decreased by 463 billion yuan year-on-year, marking the first decline in the year [3][5]. - New RMB loans amounted to 590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 310 billion yuan, remaining at a low level compared to previous years [3][5]. - Government bond net financing was 1.37 trillion yuan, becoming a drag on social financing for the first time in ten months due to a high base effect from last year [5][12]. Group 2: Credit Structure and Consumer Behavior - Resident loans increased by 30.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.7 billion yuan, reflecting a cautious attitude towards debt amid an unstable job market [6][8]. - Consumer confidence index is low, and the employment outlook index has hit a new low since March 2020, limiting residents' willingness to leverage [6][8]. - The consumer loan interest subsidy policy started in September, and its effects are yet to be observed [8]. Group 3: Corporate Loan Trends - Non-financial corporate loans increased by 590 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion yuan, with short-term loans showing a seasonal improvement for the first time in five years [8][12]. - The increase in short-term loans may be related to a recovery in production sentiment, while the decline in medium to long-term loan growth is slowing down [8][12]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Deposit Trends - M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, remaining stable, while M1's growth rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 6.0%, narrowing the gap between M2 and M1 to a 51-month low [11][12]. - In August, RMB deposits increased by 2.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160 billion yuan, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" from residents to non-bank deposits [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The pace of government bond issuance will continue to impact social financing growth, with a projected decrease in net issuance in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year [12][13]. - The key factor for a rebound in private sector credit demand hinges on the stabilization of the real estate market and improvements in income expectations [13]. - The central bank's continued support and liquidity remain strong, suggesting that structural market trends may persist [13].

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：睿知睿见 有句话叫做 ： 行情在犹豫中成长 。 也就是说 ， 人们身处牛市中时往往不自知 ， 不断怀疑牛市 。 由于怀疑 ， 所以就犹豫 ， 于是就会出现一种心理活动 ： 想建仓都又怕被套 ， 不建仓又害怕踏空 。 纠结来纠结去 ， 结果踏空了 ， 悲剧了 ！ 总想满仓吃上涨 ， 空仓躲避下跌 ！ 而且稍微有点风吹草动就频繁操作 。 所以 ， 牛市里照亏无误 ！ 来源：雪球 正确的做法是什么呢 ？ 那就是 ， 管理好仓位 。 难道你就不可以半仓吗 ？ 如果上涨 ， 你能跟上一半涨幅 ， 如果下跌 ， 你还可以在低位补仓赚超额 ！ 那么问题来了 ， 多少仓位合适呢 ？ 出现这种现象的原因是什么呢 ？ 是因为贪婪和恐惧 。 接下来我给大家做一个演示 ， 看完后 ， 你就知道答案了 。 01 熊市底部多少仓位合适 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Cycle - The current economic adjustment phase is characterized by a rate cut cycle aimed at stimulating the economy, which is a typical response during such periods [3] - In the early to mid-stage of the rate cut cycle, both LPR and deposit rates decrease, leading to pressure on bank performance as asset re-pricing occurs faster than liabilities, resulting in challenges such as increased asset quality control [3][4] - Towards the end of the rate cut cycle, the reduction in LPR slows down, allowing banks to enter a more comfortable performance zone as net interest margins begin to recover [3] Group 2: Stable Interest Rate Period - After the rate cut cycle, a stable interest rate period is expected, where banks benefit from lower liability costs and improved asset quality, leading to increased net interest income and reduced credit impairment losses [5][6] - In the later stage of the stable period, while asset quality continues to improve, the cost of liabilities remains stable, allowing banks to maintain comfortable performance levels [6][7] Group 3: Interest Rate Hike Cycle - An interest rate hike cycle occurs when the economy overheats, with both LPR and deposit rates increasing, leading to a faster re-pricing of assets compared to liabilities, which enhances net interest margins [8][9] - In the later stage of the hike cycle, the impact of rising deposit rates becomes evident, but the increase in asset yields slows down, which may suppress net interest margins and return on equity [9][10] Group 4: Overall Economic Cycle Understanding - The cyclical nature of bank performance is crucial for long-term investors, as banks typically reserve profits during prosperous years and release provisions during challenging times, reflecting a normal phenomenon in banking operations [11] - The discussion around declining ROE during this period lacks significance without recognizing the cyclical nature of bank performance, which can lead to linear extrapolation errors [11]