Core Viewpoint - Silver has experienced a significant surge, outperforming gold and becoming the highest-gaining precious metal of the year, with a year-to-date increase of 174% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Last night, the precious metals market saw a broad rally, with COMEX silver futures rising by 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.31% to $4562 per ounce [3]. - The current market conditions have led to a notable increase in silver prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions, such as security cooperation between Nigeria and the U.S. and airstrikes by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of low market liquidity at year-end and the impact of Trump's tariff policies has led to a significant migration of global precious metal inventories to the U.S., exacerbating supply shortages and fueling speculative trading [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A key indicator of physical silver shortages, the one-year silver swap rate minus U.S. rates, has plummeted to -7.18%, indicating that traders are willing to pay a premium for immediate delivery of physical silver [6]. - The current negative swap rate suggests a supply crunch, as traders are prioritizing immediate access to physical silver over future contracts, which typically incur storage and insurance costs [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Risks - Historical precedents indicate that previous silver bull markets ended not due to natural supply-demand reversals but through regulatory interventions, such as increased margin requirements by exchanges [8]. - The recent increase in silver futures margin requirements by CME could signal potential market corrections if regulatory pressures continue to mount [8].

以下文章来源于郭施亮 ，作者郭施亮 郭施亮 . 财经评论员、专栏作家，2013年度搜狐最佳行业自媒体人。香港大公财经特约评论员、每经智库专栏作家，并多次受邀广东省人民政府发展研究中心等权 威机构撰写多篇学术文章。其作品刊登于香港文汇报、新华社《瞭望》、人民日报海外版等数十家权威报刊。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 郭施亮 在美元大幅走弱的影响下 ， 促使人民币汇率被动升值 ， 同时也促使大部分与美元指数呈现出负相关的资产出现了可观的涨幅 。 在投资市场中 ， 常有一句话是这样说的 ， " 一鲸落 ， 万物生 " ， 美元指数涨跌对大部分资产价格带来较大的影响 。 这一轮美元贬值潮 ， 不 仅带动了金价的持续上涨 ， 而且还带动了股市等资产的持续回暖 。 美元指数持续下跌 ， 促使人民币汇率的被动升值 。 不过 ， 影响人民币汇率走向的因素 ， 远不止美元指数这一项指标 。 例如 ， 国内经济基本 面的持续改善 、 市场投资情绪升温以及外资的积极流入等 ， 都会对人民币汇率起到积极的提振影响 。 在人民币汇率重 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 沪指8连阳，截至收盘，沪指涨0.1%，深成指涨0.54%，创业板指0.14%。沪深两市成交额2.16万亿，较上一个交易日放量2357亿。 商业航天概念再度爆发，神剑股份7连板，中国卫星3连板，通宇通讯、隆基机械、上海港湾等十余股涨停。 有色大涨，紫金矿业、洛阳钼业均创历史新高。海南自贸概念反复活跃，海南发展6天5板。 造纸、白酒、算力硬件等板块跌幅居前，其中算力硬件概念表现较弱，长光华芯跌超11%。 01 8900亿紫金矿业 历史新高 今天盘中，沪铜期货主力合约、沪金期货主力合约、沪银期货主力合约、铂期货主力合约盘中集体创历史新高，碳酸锂期货主力合约盘中一度突破 13万元/吨关口。 有色金属板块集体走强，两大龙头股紫金矿业、洛阳钼业股价大涨，均创历史新高。 其中紫金矿业大涨4.68%，单日成交额95亿元，最新市值8915亿元。 | 33.53 +1.50 +4.68% CN 融 通 L1 | 64.82万人加自选 ( = = == > | | --- | --- | | 高 33.77 开 32.60 量 286.20万手 总市值 8915.54亿 | | | 低 32. ...

Core Viewpoint - Value investing remains a timeless topic in the Chinese capital market, with few investors successfully implementing its core principles over the long term [2][3]. Group 1: Value Investment Characteristics - Excellent value fund managers possess traits such as independence, objectivity, long-term investment focus, contrarian decision-making, perseverance, and prudence [3]. - The CSI 800 Value Index has shown superior performance compared to the CSI 800 Growth Index over the past decade, with better annualized returns and lower maximum drawdowns [3]. Group 2: Long-term Value Investment in Domestic Fund Companies - China Europe Fund is one of the few companies with a strong tradition of long-term value investing, boasting a team of seven value fund managers with an average experience of over 13 years [6]. - The value team at China Europe Fund has generated over 10 billion in profits this year, indicating the effectiveness of a diversified value team built on an "industrialized" research system [6]. Group 3: Individual Fund Manager Insights - Blue Xiaokang, head of the value team at China Europe Fund, manages over 25 billion and has consistently outperformed benchmarks since 2019 [8]. - Blue Xiaokang emphasizes insights, valuation, systematic thinking, rationality, and altruism in his investment philosophy, focusing on macroeconomic trends [8][9]. - He believes that the valuation of Chinese financial stocks is underestimated and that the bad debt ratio in the domestic banking sector will not be as pessimistic as previously thought [9]. Group 4: Team Dynamics and Decision-Making - The decision-making process within the value team at China Europe Fund is characterized by equality and open communication, with the team leader fostering a collaborative environment [14][16]. - Each fund manager in the team has unique characteristics and investment styles, contributing to a diverse and effective investment approach [15][21]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The long-term thinking of the management and shareholders at China Europe Fund supports the implementation of a long-term strategy, enhancing governance advantages [26]. - The company is committed to continuous organizational innovation and has introduced an "industrialized" research system to support its long-term investment philosophy [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on a decade of investment experiences, emphasizing the importance of adapting investment strategies over time and setting realistic long-term goals for returns [5][19][27]. Group 1: Investment Performance - The initial investment amount grew from approximately 1 million to around 10 million, with a cumulative return of 219.7% and a compound annual growth rate of about 13.78% over ten years [8]. - The author acknowledges that while the returns may not seem impressive to short-term traders, the steady growth reflects a disciplined approach to investing through market cycles [10][11]. - The investment strategy evolved from a long-term buy-and-hold approach to a more active strategy of high selling and low buying, with a focus on increasing the frequency of trades [24][25]. Group 2: Market Insights - The author highlights the importance of setting a long-term investment goal, suggesting that a reasonable target could be to achieve returns that outpace the annual GDP growth rate, which is currently around 5% [29][31]. - The article discusses the challenges of achieving a long-term annualized return of over 15%, noting that while some years may yield high returns, others may result in losses, making consistent performance difficult [34][38]. - The author mentions that despite facing market downturns, the overall strategy of continuous investment during low points has led to significant total returns [42][46]. Group 3: Risk Management and Tools - The author created a "market temperature gauge" to assess risk boundaries, emphasizing that this tool is not for making buy or sell decisions but for evaluating risk levels [50]. - Continuous learning and data analysis are highlighted as essential practices for navigating the investment landscape, with a focus on understanding market dynamics and company performance [51][52]. - The article concludes with a reminder that true investment success lies in the ability to endure market lows and adapt strategies accordingly [53][56].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the most dangerous state for investors is not the loss itself, but rather a state of "no planning, no judgment, and no contingency," where individuals rely on luck and wishful thinking instead of making informed decisions [5][6]. Group 1: Investment Mindset - Many new investors enter the market with a strong desire to make quick and substantial profits, but this desire often remains untransformed into actionable plans [8]. - These investors typically do not analyze economic fundamentals or industry trends, and their decision-making is based on vague feelings rather than concrete analysis [9]. Group 2: Lack of Preparedness - The absence of a contingency plan accelerates the descent into poor investment practices, as mature investors always consider "what if things go wrong" while inexperienced ones fantasize about potential gains [10]. - Investors without a plan often become overly aggressive during market upswings and panic during downturns, lacking clear stop-loss strategies [10][11]. Group 3: Crisis Management - When faced with significant losses, inexperienced investors often scramble for help, seeking advice from various sources, but this reactive approach to risk management is ineffective [13]. - The article suggests that risk management should be proactive rather than reactive, as waiting until a crisis occurs to seek solutions is akin to gambling [13]. Group 4: Path to Maturity - Few individuals enter the market with a mature investment framework; instead, they learn through painful experiences of loss, which helps them understand the concept of risk [15]. - Those who manage to learn from their mistakes begin to transform their wishes into goals, feelings into judgments, and prayers into plans, ultimately developing a more mature approach to investing [16].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but closed higher, recording a seven-day rise, with a gain of 0.47% at the close [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index also rebounded, with increases of 0.33% and 0.3% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Over 3,700 stocks in the market rose, with 93 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - The commercial aerospace sector was notably active, with over 20 constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Shenjian Co. with six consecutive limit-ups [2][13] - The robotics sector saw a rapid increase, with multiple stocks such as Shikang Co. and Xiangshan Co. hitting the daily limit [2][17] - The chip industry chain strengthened, with stocks like Shenghui Integrated and Guofeng New Materials reaching the daily limit [2] - The paper sector experienced significant gains, with stocks like Bohui Paper and Yibin Paper also hitting the daily limit [2] Precious Metals and Investment Funds - Precious metals, Hainan, and energy metals sectors were among the biggest decliners, with Hainan Free Trade Zone stocks collectively dropping, including Hainan Ruize which fell nearly 7% [3] - The previously popular silver fund, Guotou Silver LOF, hit the daily limit down, with a premium still at 45% despite the drop [4][5] - On December 25, Guotou Silver LOF resumed trading but quickly hit the limit down, with a trading volume of 809 million yuan and a high sell order of 4.86 million hands [5][9] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase of rapid development, with over 600 companies in the industry and 25 launch sites [16] - The recent launch of the Long March 12 rocket and the completion of nearly 90 launches this year have set a historical record, with a significant increase in commercial launches [16] - Analysts suggest that the commercial aerospace theme is gaining momentum due to improved top-level design and new policy support, enhancing market confidence in long-term development [16] Robotics Sector - The humanoid robotics sector saw a surge, with Fenglong Co. hitting the daily limit upon resuming trading, supported by a significant order transfer agreement with UBTECH [17][19] - UBTECH, a leading company in the robotics field, has focused on humanoid robot applications and has secured nearly 1.4 billion yuan in orders this year [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and future trends of quantitative investment strategies in 2025, highlighting the coexistence of differentiation and opportunities within the public quantitative fund industry [2][4][5]. Group 1: Differentiation in Quantitative Investment - The public quantitative industry in 2025 is characterized by product differentiation, with a wider variety of quantitative products available compared to previous years, including strategies covering 500, 1000, and 2000 indices [4]. - Alpha differentiation has expanded, with significant variations in excess returns among different models on the same platform, indicating a rare occurrence of divergence within the industry [4]. - There is a notable performance gap between public and private quantitative funds, with public funds being more conservative due to compliance constraints, while private funds have shown better performance in small-cap stocks [4]. Group 2: Opportunities in Quantitative Investment - 2025 is seen as a significant year for quantitative investment, with active market participation and substantial individual stock differentiation creating a favorable environment for excess returns [5]. - The year marks the implementation of high-quality development policies in public funds, promoting "constrained active management" as a mainstream approach, which opens new opportunities for quantitative methods across various investment processes [5]. - Quantitative investment is increasingly recognized as a valuable methodology for predicting returns, managing risks, optimizing portfolios, and executing trades, leading to broader application across the asset management industry [5]. Group 3: Trends and Future Outlook - The future of public quantitative investment is expected to be expansive, with an increasing number of listed companies and improved liquidity, providing ample opportunities for differentiation in quantitative strategies [10]. - The integration of AI into public quantitative investment is anticipated to enhance investment methodologies, emphasizing the need for precision and detail in research and development [10]. - The focus for 2026 will be on strengthening the alpha generation capabilities while ensuring robust risk management to maintain investor confidence during market volatility [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of dividends, emphasizing that companies with stable and substantial cash flow are typically able to provide consistent dividends, reflecting their profitability [5][10]. - From an investor's perspective, dividends lead to a "ex-dividend" scenario where stock prices drop, indicating that total assets remain unchanged, thus portraying dividends as a transfer of funds rather than additional earnings [7][12]. - The article highlights that private equity fund dividends operate similarly, indicating that a fund's ability to distribute dividends signifies profitability, and that dividends can be taken as cash or reinvested [14][18]. Group 2 - Cash dividends provide immediate cash flow but result in a decrease in the fund's net asset value, meaning total assets do not change [16][18]. - Reinvesting dividends allows for compound growth, which can significantly increase returns over time, demonstrating the power of compounding interest [20][25]. - The article concludes that while dividends are not "free money," they indicate that the fund has generated profits and can cater to different investor needs, reinforcing that dividends are not a negative aspect of investing [29][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of acknowledging uncertainty in investment decisions and the dangers of overconfidence in market predictions [5][7][20]. Group 1: Market Uncertainty - Investors often seek certainty and rely on theories or historical patterns, but the fundamental nature of financial markets is uncertainty [7]. - No investment strategy is infallible; historical examples show that even well-regarded companies can underperform due to high valuations or changing economic conditions [8]. - Holding a mindset of "I am definitely right" can lead to devastating losses when market conditions shift [9]. Group 2: Lessons from Investment Masters - Even top investors like those at Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and Warren Buffett have made significant mistakes, highlighting that expertise does not guarantee success [12][18]. - LTCM, despite its sophisticated models and high returns, suffered catastrophic losses due to unforeseen events, demonstrating the vulnerability of even the most complex strategies [14]. - Buffett's investment in airline stocks during the pandemic serves as a reminder that even the best can misjudge market conditions [16][18]. Group 3: Overconfidence in Investing - Overconfidence is a survival trait that can lead to poor investment decisions, as individuals often believe they are above average in their abilities [20][22]. - This cognitive bias results in frequent trading, which can diminish returns; studies show that high-frequency traders underperform the market by 6.5 percentage points annually after fees [26]. - Investors tend to seek confirmation of their beliefs, leading to a narrow focus that can exacerbate losses [29][30]. Group 4: Embracing Uncertainty - Adopting the mindset of "I might be wrong" can lead to better investment practices, such as diversification and risk management [31][32]. - Acknowledging potential errors encourages investors to avoid putting all their resources into a single asset and to maintain a balanced portfolio [32]. - Recognizing the possibility of being wrong can also facilitate timely decision-making, such as cutting losses when investment theses no longer hold [36][37]. Group 5: Adjusting Expectations - Accepting the fallibility of one's judgments can lead to more realistic expectations and a healthier investment mindset [38][39]. - Investors should focus on steady growth rather than attempting to time the market perfectly, which can reduce anxiety and improve overall investment experience [41]. - The article concludes that humility and respect for market unpredictability are crucial for long-term success in investing [44].