Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.39%, with over 4,400 stocks rising [1] Banking Sector - Bank stocks reached new highs, with major banks like ICBC, ABC, and CCB seeing significant price increases. ICBC's stock rose by 2.04%, marking six consecutive days of gains, with a total market capitalization of 2.68 trillion yuan [4][6] - Insurance capital has been actively increasing stakes in bank stocks, with 15 instances of stake increases this year. Major insurers involved include Ping An Life and China Life, driven by expectations of future returns and high dividend yields [6][7] Cross-Border Payment - The cross-border payment concept surged, with stocks like Sifang Jingchuang hitting a 20% limit up. The launch of the cross-border payment system on June 22 is expected to facilitate real-time remittances between mainland China and Hong Kong [9][11] - Morgan Stanley views the cross-border payment system as a mild benefit for financial stocks, predicting it will attract more liquidity to Hong Kong [11][12] Oil and Gas Sector - The Iranian parliament's approval to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz has led to a strong performance in the oil and gas sector, with stocks like Junyou and Beiken Energy seeing significant gains [15][17] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global oil trade, and any disruption could lead to oil prices exceeding $120 per barrel [18] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor equipment sector saw strong gains, with companies like Zhongwei and Tuojing Technology rising over 4%. The potential withdrawal of exemptions for U.S. technology use by major semiconductor manufacturers has raised concerns but also highlighted opportunities for domestic companies [20][22] - Analysts predict a recovery in the semiconductor industry driven by AI demand and ongoing domestic substitution efforts, with positive revenue and profit growth expected in 2024 and early 2025 [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical risks and market volatility on investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of diversification in investment portfolios to mitigate risks in a changing environment [2][3]. Group 1: Diversification Concept - Diversification is described as the only "free lunch" in investing, where the overall risk of a portfolio is not merely the sum of individual asset risks but is influenced by the interactions between assets [3][5]. - The correlation coefficient is a key metric for understanding the relationship between asset price movements, with values ranging from 1 (perfectly correlated) to -1 (perfectly inversely correlated) [4][5]. - Combining assets with correlation coefficients below 1 can reduce overall risk, and lower correlation enhances the effectiveness of diversification [5][8]. Group 2: Historical Context and Changing Correlations - Historical data shows that correlations between A-shares and global markets fluctuate, indicating that past effective diversification strategies may not hold in the future [9][10]. - Since 2021, the correlation between A-shares and developed markets like the US and Japan has decreased, enhancing the diversification value for A-share investors [13]. - Conversely, correlations with emerging markets have increased since 2017, partly due to China's growing weight in emerging market indices [13][14]. Group 3: Building a "Anti-Fragile" Portfolio - The article suggests that merely investing in overseas assets is insufficient for effective risk diversification; a more comprehensive approach is needed that spans multiple asset classes [19][20]. - The changing correlation dynamics among major asset classes highlight the complexity and challenges of constructing a diversified investment portfolio [21][22]. - Continuous monitoring of asset correlations and dynamic adjustments to the portfolio are essential for effective management in a complex investment environment [23].

Core Viewpoint - The company Renzihang has been labeled as ST due to financial fraud, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) imposing a fine of 5 million yuan and penalties on responsible individuals totaling 7 million yuan [1][3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Misconduct - Renzihang was found to have inflated revenue by 112 million yuan over three consecutive years, leading to a fine of 5 million yuan and warnings to responsible individuals [1][8][12]. - The company’s subsidiary, Beijing Yahon, was identified as a key factor in the financial misconduct, with operations continuing independently post-acquisition [8][19]. Stock Market Impact - Starting June 24, 2025, Renzihang's stock will be traded under the name "ST Renzihang," with a trading suspension for one day [3][6][7]. - The stock's price fluctuation limit remains at 20%, which is significant for nearly 70,000 shareholders [6][24]. Historical Context - Renzihang was once a leading player in the cybersecurity sector, with its stock peaking at 102.85 yuan during the 2015 bull market, achieving a market capitalization exceeding 10 billion yuan [19][20]. - The company has faced declining performance, with a 35% drop in revenue from 2022 to 2024, and a net loss of 39.62 million yuan in 2024 [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the banking industry has a strong business model despite common misconceptions, and it suggests that the current low valuations present significant investment opportunities [3][4][10]. Group 1: Misunderstandings about the Banking Industry - Misunderstanding 1: Banks are not a good business model. In reality, banks have historically been strong business models, with high profitability despite low valuations [3][4]. - Misunderstanding 2: Banks are overly affected by economic conditions. The article argues that banks manage bad debts over long cycles, and their performance is not as fragile as perceived [4][5]. - Misunderstanding 3: Declining interest rates and narrowing net interest margins (NIM) will hinder profit growth. The article states that while NIM is low, it is unlikely to decrease significantly further, and banks can still achieve profit growth [7][8]. Group 2: Current State of the Banking Sector - The current non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in China's banking sector is 1.8%, with a provision coverage ratio of 190%, indicating that the bad debt cycle is nearing its end [5][6]. - The article highlights that the banking sector has been managing bad debts effectively over the past decade, which has allowed for stable profit growth [5][6]. - The banking sector's NIM was reported at 2.06% in Q2, which is near historical lows, but the article suggests that this level is sustainable [7][8]. Group 3: Future Profitability and Valuation Potential - The article predicts that as bad debts are resolved and NIM stabilizes, banks will see a gradual increase in return on equity (ROE) and profit growth, potentially reaching 15%-20% ROE [10][11]. - It is suggested that the average price-to-book (PB) ratio for major banks could increase significantly, indicating substantial upside potential in valuations [12][13]. - The article argues that the banking sector is cyclical, and as the cycle turns positive, banks could experience significant valuation recovery, similar to past cycles [10][13]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The article posits that the current low interest in banks among institutional investors presents a unique opportunity for individual investors to capitalize on undervalued stocks [19][20]. - It emphasizes that while some banks like China Merchants Bank and Ping An are recognized as strong performers, there are opportunities across the entire banking sector, as many banks have yet to experience valuation recovery [22][24]. - The potential for significant price appreciation exists, as historical patterns show that banks can rapidly increase in value during recovery phases [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the Chinese liquor industry, particularly focusing on the performance of major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, and analyzes their valuation through the Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PR) model [2][9]. Group 1: PR Trends of Major Brands - The PR trends for Moutai, Wuliangye, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are presented, indicating significant fluctuations in their valuations over time [3][4][5][7]. - Moutai's PR reached a new low in June 2023, attributed to the continuous decline in the wholesale price of its flagship product, which has led to capital outflow [9]. Group 2: Valuation Comparison Analysis - The lowest PR values for Wuliangye, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao occurred in September 2024, coinciding with a market downturn, while Moutai's lowest was in June 2023 [9]. - Historical PR values show that the current PR levels for these brands are significantly higher than their historical lows, suggesting a potential mispricing in the past [10]. Group 3: Future Valuation Outlook - It is deemed unlikely that the liquor industry will revert to the valuation levels seen in 2013-2014 due to the maturation of market pricing mechanisms and the increasing sophistication of capital [11]. - The article emphasizes that using the PR model for investment implies a left-side buying strategy, which requires patience during periods of price decline [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "don't invest in what you don't understand," challenging its validity and suggesting that many investors may overestimate their understanding of investments [2][4]. Group 1: Understanding Investment - The author argues that the phrase "don't invest in what you don't understand" can hinder individuals from entering the investment world, as everyone starts from a place of ignorance [4]. - It is noted that even successful investors like Warren Buffett do not apply this principle rigidly, as they focus on areas where they have sufficient knowledge and profitability [4]. - The article emphasizes that many individuals mistakenly believe they understand investments, leading to poor decision-making and financial losses [6][12]. Group 2: Survivor Bias - The author highlights the issue of survivor bias, where successful investors' stories are celebrated while failures are often ignored, leading to a skewed perception of investment success [14][16]. - The article points out that those who have failed in investments, such as cryptocurrency or business ventures, often remain silent about their losses, contributing to a misleading narrative [17]. Group 3: Risk Diversification - The author advocates for risk diversification as a valid investment strategy, suggesting that understanding the principles of asset allocation can mitigate risks even if one does not fully comprehend every asset class [19][23]. - It is mentioned that diversification can be a response to the lack of deep understanding of individual investments, allowing for a more balanced approach to risk management [23]. Group 4: Self-Assessment in Investment - The article raises the question of self-awareness among investors, suggesting that many may overestimate their abilities and should consider whether they are truly equipped to compete in crowded markets [25]. - The author reflects on the importance of recognizing one's limitations and opting for diversified strategies to achieve stable, long-term returns rather than chasing high-risk opportunities [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that asset allocation is a personal expression of one's understanding of the world, risk perception, and life goals, rather than merely a numerical game [2][4][5]. Group 1: Investment Tools and Strategies - Investors can utilize three main investment tools: asset allocation, stock selection, and market timing, with asset allocation accounting for over 90% of the volatility in institutional portfolio returns [2]. - Different investment strategies reflect individual preferences and risk tolerance, leading to diverse asset allocation choices among investors [3][4]. Group 2: Personalization of Investment Portfolios - Investment portfolios serve as a reflection of an individual's values and future aspirations, with choices influenced by personal experiences and environmental factors [3][5]. - The article highlights that there is no absolute right or wrong in investment choices, as they are based on different cognitive frameworks and risk perceptions [4]. Group 3: The Role of External Opinions - Investors often face pressure from external opinions, which can lead to unnecessary adjustments in their portfolios; successful investing relies on deep insights and steadfast beliefs rather than frequent trading [3]. - The article suggests that maintaining a clear understanding of one's investment philosophy can reduce the impact of external criticism [5]. Group 4: The Snowball Three-Factor Method - The Snowball Three-Factor Method promotes long-term investment through diversification across assets, markets, and timing, aiming for diversified sources of returns and risk mitigation [6].

大家周末愉快，一起来简单看下美股市场的表现。 当地时间周五，受美联储理事沃勒鸽派发言影响，美股一度走高，随后有所回落，最终三大指数 中仅道指收涨。本周，道指涨0.02%，标普500指数跌0.15%，纳指涨0.21%。 02 "稳定币第一股"再度暴涨20%！ 市场焦点集中在美联储降息议题上， 不过美联储官员之间也存在分歧。并且特朗普在社交媒体上 再度炮轰鲍威尔： "如果他把利率降到应有的水平——1%至2%，这个'笨蛋'每年能为美国节省 多达1万亿美元。" 一起来看具体情况。 01 大分歧！ 美联储官员降息观点不一 美东时间6月20日周五，美联储的"当红理事"沃勒， 他认为最早7月的下次美联储FOMC货币政 策会议上就可以降息。 沃勒在讲话中淡化特朗普政府关税对通胀的冲击。他认为，应该忽略关税对物价的一次性影响。 他强调，如果开始担心劳动力市场下行风险，那现在就得行动，"为什么我们要等到它真正崩溃才 开始降息？" 不过里士满联储主席巴尔金称，他认为FOMC不急于降息。尚未准备好排除关税带来的通胀风 险。如果美国通胀飙升，不能忽视，物价指数仍高于目标。目前数据中没有紧急因素需要美联储 降息。此外旧金山联储主席戴利预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that high dividend stocks are not solely a result of growth but rather possess inherent traits that make them likely to offer high dividends, emphasizing the importance of business models and competitive advantages [2][3]. Business Model - Companies with light asset and low capital expenditure business models are more likely to become high dividend stocks, as they have lower fixed costs and more available cash for dividends [3]. - High capital expenditure businesses face more pressure to reinvest profits, reducing the likelihood of high dividends [3]. Competitive Advantage - Sustainable high dividends require companies to have a competitive moat, ensuring stable output capabilities [3]. - Examples include Changjiang Electric, which benefits from prime hydropower resources, and banks that leverage regulatory licenses and customer loyalty [4]. Dividend Sustainability - Companies like Fuyao and Yili, despite not being cash cows, maintain high dividends due to their competitive advantages, which allow for stable cash flow over time [4]. - The focus for identifying reliable long-term dividend stocks should be on the presence of both a favorable business model and a competitive moat [4]. Dividend Reinvestment - Dividend reinvestment can enhance income over time, creating a compounding effect similar to interest [5]. - Investors can set future passive income goals, allowing for a balance between current living expenses and future financial security [5].

直接上图，大类资产配置分别是偏债基金30%，偏股基金50%，商品基金20%，整体比较均衡，年化收益目标大约8-10%，最大回撤尽量控制在 15%以内，比较符合我的需求，稳中求进。 偏股基金 50% 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：阿帅 最近学习了雪球三分法做资产配置，也看了小雪的方案，我属于极简主义，包括房子装修都是极简风，不太喜欢基金数量太多。 于是就想怎么用最少的基金做好方案，但同时又要满足三分法中"资产分散，市场分散"理念。 我尝试了很多基金的搭配，也回测了很多次，发现这4只基金做方案效果还是不错的，既符合我的极简要求，也符合三分法的逻辑。 偏股资产主要分享全球经济、优秀企业增长的红利,具备高 风险高收益特征。投资类型多元丰富,包含不同地区、策略 的偏股基金。 基金列表(2) 配置比例 中金中证优选300指数A 25.00% 501060 股票型 选股逻辑为"好公司、好价格",选取近5年平均股息... v 博时纳斯达克100指数发起（QDII）A 25.00% 016055 QDII 纳斯达克100是由具有高科技、高成长和非金融的特 ... × ...