↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 午后突发跳水，三大指数齐跌。截至收盘 ， 沪指跌1.15% ， 深成指跌1.06% ， 创业板指跌1.64% 。沪深两市成交额3.1万亿 ， 较上一个交易 日放量7584亿 ， 创年内第三 。 盘面上个股普跌 ， 全市场超4600只个股下跌 。 机器人板块延续强势 ， 首开股份回封涨停 ， 走出12天11板。 低价股表现活跃 ， 上海建工5连 板 。算力产业链逆势上涨 ，工业富联、 中芯国际创历史新高。 此外，多数板块下跌，贵金属、证券、多元金融、影视、煤炭等领跌。 01 上海建工5连板 爷叔卖飞了？ 今天上海建工成功实现5连板，最新市值344亿元，股价来到3.88元。 在上海建工股价疯狂上涨的背后，"建工爷叔"的故事也在投资者群体中广泛流传，成为推动股价上涨的一股特殊力量。 据了解，"建工爷叔"从2013年开始买入上海建工股票，此后长达十年的时间里，即便股价持续低迷，他依然不离不弃，坚持用退休金按月补仓。 其持仓成本也从最初的6元/股，经过不断补仓，逐步降低至3.8元/股左右。然而，多年来，上海建工股价始终在低位徘徊，"建工爷叔"也一直深陷 套牢困境。 当前，股价来到了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recognition of Beijing Xueqiu Fund Sales Co., Ltd. as an outstanding third-party sales institution in the private equity sector, emphasizing its growth and reputation in the industry [1] Group 1: Awards and Recognition - The 10th China Securities Private Equity Yinghua Demonstration Institution selection results were announced, with Beijing Xueqiu Fund Sales Co., Ltd. awarded as an outstanding third-party sales institution [1] - The selection process involved a combination of quantitative indicators such as fund returns, scale, drawdown, and risk-adjusted returns, along with qualitative assessments of investment strategies, styles, research systems, risk control processes, corporate governance, and reputation management [1] Group 2: Business Operations - Xueqiu's private equity fund distribution business operates under a compliant framework, focusing on aligning with investor interests and providing a one-stop investment solution for high-net-worth clients [4] - The company has seen significant growth in its managed scale, becoming a leading third-party fund sales platform with over 600 private equity funds and partnerships with more than 250 private equity institutions [4] - Xueqiu offers a diverse product line that caters to various investor needs, supported by a professional research and client team that provides in-depth market analysis and personalized asset allocation advice [4] Group 3: Company Background - Founded in 2010, Xueqiu has evolved into a comprehensive wealth management platform that integrates investment communication and trading, boasting over 78 million users interested in investment [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, which is expected to influence global markets significantly [2][3][34] - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's decisions impact not only the U.S. market but also global assets including U.S. stocks, bonds, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and commodities like gold [5][6] Group 2 - The article outlines three potential scenarios for the interest rate cut: no cut, a 25 basis point cut, and a 50 basis point cut, detailing the expected market reactions for each scenario [7][9][10] - In the case of a 25 basis point cut, it is viewed as beneficial for risk assets, while a 50 basis point cut could raise concerns about a potential recession, depending on market confidence in the U.S. economy [9][34] - Historical data shows that during previous significant rate cuts, equity markets generally experienced declines, while fixed income assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold tended to perform well [29][30][31] Group 3 - The article provides a summary of past Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, highlighting the economic conditions and market responses during those periods, indicating a consistent pattern of equity declines amid aggressive rate cuts [14][21][29] - It notes that during the 2001-2003 and 2007-2008 rate cut cycles, equity markets faced significant downturns, while fixed income and gold assets showed resilience [18][22][28] - The analysis suggests that the current market sentiment remains optimistic about the U.S. economy, with a 25 basis point cut being the most likely outcome, which could support risk assets like A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [34]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.95% [2] - The total market turnover reached 24,029 billion, an increase of 359 billion from the previous day, with over 2,500 stocks rising [2] - In the sector performance, the optical lithography, chip, diversified finance, wind power equipment, robotics, and copper cable high-speed connection concepts saw significant gains, while precious metals, tourism and hotels, pork, liquor, retail, and logistics sectors experienced declines [2] Shanghai Construction Industry - Shanghai Construction stock has gained attention, appearing on the hot stock list and achieving four consecutive daily limit-ups since September 12 [5] - An 82-year-old investor, referred to as "Shanghai Uncle," invested 500,000 yuan in Shanghai Construction at an average price of 6.2 yuan in 2013 and has been averaging down for ten years, with a current holding cost of 3.8 yuan [8] - Despite the company's revenue declining from 120 billion yuan in 2015 to 105 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, and a 69% drop in net profit, the investor is still holding on, with the current stock price just 0.27 yuan away from breaking even [8][9] Semiconductor Sector - The optical lithography and chip sectors in A-shares surged, with stocks like Wave Optoelectronics and Kaimete Gas hitting the daily limit [12] - Semiconductor International (SMIC) saw its stock price rise over 9% during trading, closing up 6.93% [15] - Reports indicate that SMIC is testing a domestically produced deep ultraviolet lithography machine, which could potentially enhance its production capabilities [15] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Technology Index up 4.23%, reaching a nearly four-year high [3][16] - Notable stock performances included Baidu up 17.40%, SenseTime up 14.47%, and Alibaba up 5.15% [16] Policy Developments in Hong Kong - The Chief Executive of Hong Kong announced a 30 billion HKD "Frontier Technology Research Support Program" to attract international research talent in AI and other fields [18] - Initiatives to assist mainland tech companies in financing through Hong Kong and optimize listing regulations were also highlighted [19] - A new capital investment scheme was introduced, requiring a minimum investment of 30 million HKD, with adjustments to property investment calculations [20] - The establishment of a "Commodity Strategy Committee" aims to enhance the policy design and long-term strategy for commodity trading in Hong Kong [21]

Core Viewpoint - Investment is a competitive game that only a few can profit from, and most participants are at a disadvantage compared to the most skilled and resourceful investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Personal investors can achieve a favorable position through an all-weather asset allocation strategy proposed by Ray Dalio, which allows for profit across various market conditions [6][7]. - Each asset class can generate returns over the long term, but significant volatility and drawdowns can hinder many investors from realizing these gains [7]. - The correlation between different asset classes is low, which supports the concept of "anti-fragility" in investment [10][12]. Group 2: Importance of Reducing Volatility - The concepts of anti-fragility, asset allocation, and diversification are not original to Dalio but have been developed by various investment masters [12]. - The two key principles of asset allocation are to invest in long-term appreciating risk assets and to buy uncorrelated assets to reduce volatility [12]. - Maintaining a diversified portfolio is crucial as it helps smooth out returns and allows for flexibility in capital allocation [14][15]. Group 3: All-Weather Portfolio Practice - A proposed all-weather portfolio consists of 20% stocks, 15% gold, 15% commodities, and 50% long-term bonds, aiming for an annualized return of 10% [16]. - Historical performance data shows that even during market downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis, the all-weather portfolio experienced significantly lower losses compared to individual asset classes [17]. Group 4: Conclusion - The all-weather strategy provides a robust investment framework for ordinary investors, enabling them to outperform many professional investors through a systematic approach [19][20].

Group 1 - The article discusses the long-term narrative of a bull market, suggesting that a 10% annualized return from broad market indices is a reasonable expectation based on historical data [5][6] - Historical performance of major indices such as the CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 indicates significant long-term growth, with the CSI 300 showing a 352.22% increase over 20.78 years and the S&P 500 increasing by 237.13% over 10 years [5][6] - The article emphasizes that a bull market is unlikely to be linear and will be influenced by economic cycles and unexpected events, leading to alternating phases of bull and bear markets [6][7] Group 2 - Economic fundamentals are identified as the cornerstone of a long-term bull market, with earnings growth being a critical driver of index performance [8][10] - The relationship between price (P), earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is explained, highlighting that while valuation can fluctuate, sustained earnings growth is essential for a bull market [9][10] - The article warns against relying solely on valuation increases for market growth, as this can lead to unsustainable price levels without corresponding earnings growth [11][16] Group 3 - The concept of a "slow bull" market is introduced, which is characterized by gradual increases in line with corporate earnings, contrasting with the rapid gains of "fast bulls" [19][20] - The article notes that while a slow bull market is preferable for long-term stability, the current market dynamics may still lead to short-term volatility driven by retail investor sentiment [20][21] - Historical data shows a decreasing trend in the amplitude of market fluctuations during bull markets, indicating a maturation of retail investor behavior [21][23]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry in China is entering a critical stage of deepening reform and improving quality and efficiency, focusing on enhancing investment capabilities, optimizing customer experience, and increasing investor trust [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding the Importance of High-Quality Development - Reform is necessary for the public fund industry, which has grown to manage over 30 trillion yuan and serve over 800 million investors, but still faces challenges in operational philosophy and governance [4]. - The industry must address issues arising from rapid growth, which hinder its development and service quality, necessitating reforms that focus on core business and diverse financial products [4][5]. - The action plan emphasizes a problem-oriented approach, aiming to align the industry's development with the interests of investors and enhance service quality [5]. Group 2: Creating a New Fund Ecosystem - The Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau is guiding the industry to innovate and optimize its business structure to align with high-quality development requirements [6][7]. - Business innovation is being promoted, including the introduction of floating fee rate products and an increase in equity fund offerings, with 73 new equity funds launched in the first half of 2025, totaling 41.5 billion yuan [7]. - The industry is shifting towards an investor-centric service model, enhancing personal pension product offerings and improving investor engagement through digital transformation [8]. Group 3: Enhancing Service to the Real Economy - The public fund industry in Beijing is actively supporting national strategies, with 48 managed science and technology innovation funds totaling 173.236 billion yuan as of mid-2025 [10]. - The industry is also promoting green development through ESG products, with 37 ESG-themed funds amounting to 24.809 billion yuan [10]. - The development of REITs is being encouraged, with 3 new products launched in the first half of 2025, raising 3.803 billion yuan [10]. Group 4: Strengthening Investor Protection - The industry is prioritizing investor rights, with ongoing fee reforms leading to a savings of 7.2 billion yuan for investors in 2024 [12]. - Innovative investor education initiatives are being implemented to ensure that product risks align with investor risk tolerance [12]. - A robust complaint handling mechanism is being established to ensure efficient resolution of investor disputes [12]. Group 5: Risk Prevention and Control - The industry is enhancing its risk management capabilities through a comprehensive regulatory framework and proactive monitoring of operational risks [12]. - A zero-tolerance policy is in place for illegal activities, ensuring strict penalties for violations [12]. - Key risks such as governance, liquidity, and credit risks are being closely monitored to prevent systemic risks [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article narrates the investment journey of an individual who transitioned from a novice to a more knowledgeable investor through learning and adopting a structured asset allocation strategy known as the "Three-Fund Method" [2][3][4]. Investment Journey - The individual began investing in 2019 by purchasing a healthcare index fund through a bank's financial advisor, which resulted in a significant loss of 45% on an initial investment of 120,000 yuan by July 2022 [5][6]. - This experience highlighted the risks associated with single-asset investments and prompted a search for a more balanced and stable investment approach [5]. Introduction to Three-Fund Method - The individual discovered the "Three-Fund Method" during a period of confusion, which emphasizes the importance of asset allocation and risk diversification [7]. - The method categorizes assets into three main classes: stocks, bonds, and commodities, allowing for effective risk management and stable returns [7][8]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The individual developed a personal asset allocation strategy, termed the "Stable 5 Portfolio," consisting of 80% bonds, 10% stocks, and 10% commodities, aimed at achieving over 5% annual returns while limiting drawdowns to within 2% [9][10]. - This allocation strategy focuses on stability, with bonds providing a steady income, stocks offering growth potential, and commodities serving as a hedge against inflation [9][10]. Family Support and Trust - As the individual's investment philosophy matured, the positive results began to influence family financial decisions, leading to increased trust and support from family members regarding investment strategies [11]. - The individual emphasizes the importance of patience and consistent investment practices, which have contributed to a growing investment portfolio exceeding one million yuan [11]. Key Insights - The individual stresses the importance of understanding one's own financial situation and risk tolerance before making investment decisions, advocating for a cautious approach to investing [14][15]. - The article concludes with a reminder that investing is a long-term endeavor, and the essence of investment lies in transferring current resources to future value [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses investment strategies for a personal investor with 5 million yuan in idle funds, emphasizing the importance of safety and realistic return expectations in the current market environment [2][4]. Investment Strategy - The investor has a time horizon of at least 3-5 years and seeks to maintain capital safety while accepting a 10-15% volatility with an expected annual return of 5-6% [6][10]. - Achieving a 5-6% annual return while ensuring capital safety is possible but not guaranteed, as it may involve accepting potential capital losses [6][7]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - Certain products should be avoided, such as insurance products due to their complex terms and low returns, and short-term debt or cash products which do not meet the return expectations [12][13]. - Recommended investment options include: - Bank wealth management products, particularly those with multi-asset strategies, which can provide better risk-return profiles [13]. - Securities firm asset management products that offer fixed income plus strategies, requiring careful selection and professional advice [13]. - Public and private equity products, as well as broad-based indices, which can be suitable for long-term investment but require professional guidance for selection [14]. Specific Investment Suggestions - The investor is advised to allocate funds into a diversified portfolio, with a suggested allocation of 25% in global assets, 25% in quantitative strategies, and 50% in fixed income [19][20]. - The investment should be executed in phases, with an initial investment of 30-50% of the total amount, followed by gradual investments based on market conditions and advice from the investment manager [23][24]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks involved in investment and the need for a well-thought-out strategy that aligns with the investor's financial goals and risk tolerance [9][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing popularity and strong performance of Bridgewater's All Weather strategy, highlighting its appeal to investors and the challenges faced in accessing these investment products [6][8][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 3900-point mark, indicating a bullish sentiment in the A-share market [5]. - Bridgewater's All Weather strategy products have shown exceptional performance, with the worst product line yielding annual returns between 10% and 14%, and an average return of approximately 16% [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The All Weather strategy relies on a risk parity model, diversifying across asset classes to achieve balance, which helps mitigate significant cyclical volatility while providing decent returns [9]. - The strategy's success is attributed to its ability to adapt to different market conditions, where typically, when the stock market declines, the bond market rises, and inflation-hedging assets like gold appreciate [9]. Group 3: Alternative Strategies - Several domestic managers have successfully localized the All Weather strategy, offering various macro-hedging strategies that replicate the classic risk parity model [10]. - The macro-hedging strategies focus on trading core assets in the US and China, utilizing a combination of beta (70%) and alpha (30%) models to capture short-term opportunities [10]. Group 4: Quantitative Models - The beta component constructs a macro risk-balanced investment portfolio based on economic growth and inflation, ensuring that no single asset class dominates the portfolio [11]. - The alpha component enhances returns through unique factor libraries and quantitative models, including CTA and multi-factor models, aiming to improve the overall Sharpe ratio and return-to-drawdown ratio [13]. Group 5: Risk Management - The strategies employ a systematic approach to risk management, with a focus on maintaining a balanced exposure across various asset classes while controlling overall portfolio volatility [18][25]. - The investment strategy covers a wide range of liquid assets, including equities, bonds, and commodities, with a target to keep overall volatility within 8% [24].