Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) strategies, highlighting how they have transformed from traditional single-asset approaches to more diversified multi-asset and macro-hedging strategies, adapting to market changes and investor preferences [5][12]. Group 1: Traditional CTA Strategies - Traditional CTA strategies primarily focused on commodities, relying on basic factors such as weather, supply and demand, and political events for trading decisions [10]. - These strategies often resulted in high volatility in performance, with significant gains possible but also substantial risks of loss [11]. - Common criticisms of traditional CTA strategies include their complexity, limited diversification, and perceived lack of value outside crisis situations [6][7][8]. Group 2: New Iterations of CTA Strategies - The first new iteration involves expanding from single commodity trading to multi-asset trading, incorporating various asset classes like interest rates and stock indices, which has proven effective [14][15]. - The second iteration introduces multi-strategy approaches, combining trend-following with other strategies such as relative strength hedging and arbitrage, enhancing adaptability to different market conditions [17][18][19][20]. - The third iteration shifts focus from purely trading strategies to macro-hedging strategies, integrating macroeconomic factors and asset allocation considerations, thus improving risk management and overall portfolio performance [23][24][25].

Core Viewpoint - Taleb's investment philosophy emphasizes the significance of "fat tail" events, which are extreme occurrences that have a disproportionate impact compared to regular events, highlighting the unpredictability of such events and the importance of risk management in investment strategies [5][9][19]. Group 1: Fat Tail Concept - Taleb's main research focuses on the application of "fat tails," where a small number of extreme events have a greater impact than the majority of ordinary events, akin to the idea that "one sentence can replace a thousand" [9]. - Financial markets do not conform to the normal distribution of thin tails; instead, they exhibit fat tails, meaning the likelihood of extreme price movements is significantly higher than traditional models suggest [15][38]. - The COVID-19 pandemic is cited as a recent fat tail event that had a substantial global economic impact, reaffirming Taleb's predictions and the importance of tail risk management [17][19]. Group 2: Fat Tail Philosophy - Taleb argues that decisions should be based on "mathematical expectations of the future" rather than "spontaneous optimism," emphasizing the role of uncertainty and randomness in decision-making [21]. - He asserts that the understanding of the world is often superficial, leading to easier decision-making, which can be misleading [22]. - The complexity of systems means that what is perceived as harmful can sometimes be beneficial, and vice versa, indicating that universal rules may not apply effectively in complex scenarios [24]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - In a fat tail world, prediction fails, and the key to long-term survival is structural resilience, meaning investment portfolios must be capable of withstanding extreme events [42]. - The emphasis is placed on asset allocation and rebalancing to maintain stability during market fluctuations, rather than attempting to predict market movements [43]. - The "three-part method" of investment is highlighted as a strategy that allows continued success across various market conditions by diversifying assets, markets, and timing [44].

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 作者：睿知睿见 来源：雪球 最近人民币十分强势！已经突破了7.06！ 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 估计在年底前突破7的概率很高！ 值得注意的是，虽然最近美元也有走弱，但人民币显然更强，因此 人民币走强既有被动的原因，也有主动的因素。 如果要细究人民币走强的拐点就更有趣了。 正好是中美通完电话后。 所以，我一直都在说，汇率这东西属于国际政治的一种工具。 看到人民币这么强，至少我内心就更踏实。 甭管现在股市回调节奏如何， 大趋势依然不会变。 不过，债市这边最近跌得有点猛！ 30年国债ETF创新低。今年下跌5.73%。 年初我就跟大家分享过了， 今年要回避长债！ 现在还只是刚刚开始，如果2026年进展的顺利，债市还有得跌。 一、汇率是怎么把债市带崩的？ 股债汇相互之间都是关联在一起的。 汇率出现升值的苗头就势必会给股和债带来变化。 然而，当这 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：张 翼轸 来源：雪球 已经来到了 2025 年的 12 月，转眼 2025 年即将翻篇。 毫无疑问，2025 年对于绝大多数行业均衡流的基金经理而言，并不是一个太过于惬意的年份。 尤其是如果将跑赢万得偏股型基金指数作为基金的目标的话，那么能够实现的恐怕就并不太多了 —— 尤其是主观型非量化的行业均衡类基金。 但我依然觉得，即使他们今年可能没有跑赢万得偏股型基金指数，但只要跑输的不太多 (轻微跑赢那么更好)。对于这些基金经理依然是值得珍惜， 值得关注。 行业均衡流基金，顾名思义，也就是在行业上没有过于集中的暴露。 比如说，以申万 31 个一级行业指数为例，如果一只基金第一大行业占总投资的比值不超过 15%，我觉得这样的基金总体就可以算是一个比较行业 均衡流的基金。 但显然，这样的基金在 2025 年的市场格局下，注定是比较吃力的。因为 2025 年的前 11 个月是行业极度分化的行情。 下面这张图可以看到，如果我们以万得偏股型基金指数作为标杆的话，前 11 个月一共是上涨了 29.2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant surge in silver prices, with silver's increase exceeding 100% this year, far outpacing gold's 60% rise [2][10] - The recent inflow of funds into silver ETFs has reached its highest level since July, driven by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has supported the recent price surge [3][8] - Silver reached a historical high of $59.33 per ounce, marking a 45-year peak, with both spot and futures markets experiencing substantial activity [6][10] Group 2 - The article discusses the "short squeeze" phenomenon in the silver market, indicating that the recent price increase is not solely based on fundamental factors but also on market dynamics and speculative trading [12][14] - The initial trigger for the silver price surge was concerns over potential tariffs, leading to a rush to transport silver from London to the U.S., which created a supply crunch in the market [13][14] - The industrial demand for silver has been rising, with over half of silver consumption now coming from industrial applications, while mining production has not kept pace with demand [15][20] Group 3 - Analysts predict that silver prices could rise to $62 per ounce in the next three months due to the ongoing interest rate cuts and the tight supply situation in various markets [22] - Historical patterns indicate that silver has previously faced significant corrections after reaching similar price levels, suggesting potential volatility ahead [23] - The article notes that China is the largest industrial consumer of silver, and the current supply-demand dynamics in the solar and electronics sectors are critical to understanding future price movements [24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, long-term investment approach, suggesting that a degree of "laziness" can lead to better investment outcomes compared to being overly active and reactive to market fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Pension System - The U.S. pension system consists of three pillars: public pensions, employer-sponsored pension plans, and personal savings and investments [3][4][5]. - The second pillar, employer-sponsored pension plans, has the highest coverage, exceeding 50%, and dates back to post-World War II [6][7]. - The introduction of the 401(k) plan in 1981 shifted the responsibility of retirement savings from employers to employees, requiring individuals to make investment decisions [11][13]. Group 2: Lessons from Human Laziness - Many employees did not actively participate in the new 401(k) plan due to a lack of understanding and the inherent laziness of human nature, leading to inadequate retirement savings [14]. - In 2006, legislation was passed to encourage passive long-term investment through automatic enrollment in 401(k) plans, automatic contributions, and default investment options [15][16][29]. Group 3: Features of the 401(k) Plan - Automatic enrollment allows employees to be enrolled in the 401(k) plan without needing to take action, addressing the issue of inaction due to laziness [16]. - Automatic contributions and gradual increases in contribution rates help employees build their retirement savings without requiring constant decision-making [17][18]. - Default investment options, such as target-date funds, simplify the investment process for employees who may lack investment knowledge, leading to better long-term outcomes [20][21][22]. Group 4: Implications for Investment Discipline - The article suggests that adopting a disciplined investment strategy, similar to the principles of the 401(k) plan, can yield positive results over time [29][32]. - The introduction of personal pension policies in China mirrors some aspects of the U.S. system, highlighting the universal nature of human behavior in investment [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investing in the innovative drug sector in Hong Kong is one of the most promising opportunities for 2025, with significant growth potential compared to other sectors, particularly in light of the recent performance of the Hang Seng Index and the healthcare indices [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index has achieved a return of over 28% this year, ranking among the top global markets, but the innovative drug sector has outperformed with an 80% increase in indices related to innovative drugs [3][5]. - The innovative drug sector's performance is attributed to a combination of fundamental, emotional, valuation, and monetary factors, creating a synergistic effect that has driven growth [6]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue for 36 companies in the Hong Kong innovative drug sector is projected to be 28.5 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.8%, with a net profit of 1.8 billion RMB [6][7]. - Expanding the sample to 50 Hong Kong "18A companies," total revenue reached 44.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.48% and a net profit of 2.727 billion RMB, showing a significant increase of 128.4% [7]. - For a broader sample of 149 Hong Kong pharmaceutical companies, total revenue was 896.12 billion RMB, with a modest growth of 1%, while net profit increased by 29.7% [7]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The innovative drug industry is seen as a natural fit for large countries like China, which can leverage its industrial chain advantages to reduce high R&D costs, making it more feasible to develop new drugs compared to markets like the U.S. [12]. - The article discusses the evolution of the innovative drug sector, highlighting the transition from generic drugs to innovative products, and the increasing clarity in the industry's development trajectory [10][12]. Group 4: Business Development Models - Business Development (BD) and NewCo models are crucial in the innovative drug sector, with BD involving licensing agreements that allow companies to recoup investments quickly while minimizing commercialization risks [14][15]. - The NewCo model allows companies to establish new entities for overseas operations, facilitating funding and development while retaining stakes in the original company [15][16]. - The BD model is not yet saturated, as many multinational corporations face patent cliffs and are actively seeking to replenish their pipelines through licensing agreements [16]. Group 5: Market Environment - The innovative drug sector is heavily influenced by monetary conditions, with low interest rates fostering a favorable financing environment, which is essential for companies that rely on external funding and M&A activities [17][18]. - The article notes that the healthcare sector in Hong Kong has raised a total of 61.5 billion HKD in funding as of August 31, 2025, indicating a robust fundraising environment that surpasses the total of the previous three years [18].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 午后市场持续拉升，截至收盘，沪指涨0.7%，深成指涨1.08%，创业板指涨1.36%。 沪深两市成交额1.73万亿，较上一个交易日放量1768亿，个股涨多跌少，全市场近4400只个股上涨。 板块方面，保险、贵金属、福建、商业航天等板块涨幅居前，银行、中药、影视院线等板块跌幅居前。 看到这种超级大肉签，不少雪球APP用户表示酸死了... 此外，今天最值得关注的是摩尔线程上市，盘中最高涨超500%，中一签开盘卖出赚约27万。 01 摩尔线程上市 中一签狂赚27万 12月5日，被称为"国产GPU第一股"的摩尔线程登陆科创板。 开盘 摩尔线程竞价高开468%， 一度大涨超500 %，盘中最高价688元， 随后震荡调整。截至收盘，该股报600.50元/股，总市值为2822亿元。 投资者 中一签开盘卖出可以盈利27万左右。 | | | | 卖4 | | -- | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 114.28 | | 0.00% | 卖3 | | 0 | | | | | 卖2 | | | | | | | 卖1 | 600.50 | | | ...

以下文章来源于风云君的研究笔记 ，作者专注于私募研究的 风云君的研究笔记 . 深耕私募行业多年，专注私募基金各个策略以及资产配置，希望能分享给大家更深入、更专业的私募那 些事。 最近头部量化明汯跨界宏观，又一次引爆了市场。 热闹之余，不少投资人也发现，私募走向复合的特征，愈发明显。 何为复合？ 简单讲，单一策略走向多策略，单一资产走向多资产。 早期，高净值投资者可投资的渠道比较少，一般就是银行理财、房地产、信托。 银行理财也是当时唯一可信任的渠道，几乎无风险，而且门槛低、听得懂、不需要专业能力，但 收益空间极为有限。 房地产在2000-2010年投资回报还是相当大的，很多人也吃到了这波红利。 信托其实是对房地产行业的间接投资，比较依赖地产的发展，虽然8%-10%的固定收益非常诱 人，但风险也被严重低估。 后来随着地产泡沫破裂、"刚兑"的信托产品开始违约，私募逐步走进他们的视野，之后便成为其 投资的最佳选择。 为什么都会不约而同选择私募？ 为什么资产端会发生这样的变化呢？ 如果是从机构角度看，风云君认为主要是由于行业内卷日益严重，同质化速度比其他传统市场更 快，单一策略、资产的有效周期也更短。 要知道私募行业是 ...

以下文章来源于定投从零开始 ，作者陪伴你的定投君 定投从零开始 . 十年定投史，基金翻倍实操！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 定投从零开始 来源：雪球 今年都快结束了 ， 中证债券型基金指数今年涨幅只有1.39% ， 跟货币基金差不多了 。 曾经作为稳健代名词的债券基金 ， 在2025年的表现 ， 估计让不少 " 收蛋人 " 感到很失望 。 而且有不少过去长期业绩非常牛逼的优秀债基 ， 也纷纷翻车 。 | 招商产业债券A 217022 | 18477 | 0.01% | 鹏华丰禄债券 003547 | | 1.0400 0.01% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 章 三元十 ▼ | | | 自选 + | | 2025 | 1.17% | (536/749) | 2025 | 1.19% | (1139/3277) | | 2024 | 4.15% | (439/706) | 2024 | 5.84% | (509/2789) | | 2023 | 5.0 ...