Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of Trump dismissing Powell is considered low due to the high difficulty, low reward, and significant risks involved. Trump is more likely to influence the Federal Reserve by announcing a successor in advance, but the impact on reshaping the Fed may be limited due to internal policy disagreements [1][3]. Group 1 - Trump's criticism of Powell reflects the spread of "fiscal anxiety," exacerbated by the passage of the "Big Beautiful Bill," which indicates a growing reliance on pro-cyclical deficits, leading to high debt issuance costs and declining long-term bond acceptance [1]. - Pressuring the Federal Reserve is viewed as a "damaging tactic" to address fiscal anxiety, which may have immediate effects but significant side effects, increasing the probability of a "triple whammy" scenario in the stock, bond, and currency markets if investors perceive threats to the Fed's independence and transparency [1]. - The recent stablecoin legislation aims to alleviate the Treasury's debt issuance pressure while stripping the Fed of its authority to issue digital currency, thereby creating a "shadow Fed" represented by stablecoin issuers, which expands the White House's control and regulatory scope over the money supply [1]. Group 2 - Historical experience shows that the credibility of the Federal Reserve in maintaining price stability is crucial. The case of Burns during Nixon's presidency illustrates the risks of political pressure leading to overly accommodative monetary policy, which can create long-term inflationary pressures [3]. - The loss of the Fed's independence and a "stop-and-go" approach to monetary policy could increase the risk of unanchored inflation expectations, making it costly to restore credibility once lost [3]. - The mechanisms designed to ensure the Fed's independence present three significant obstacles for Trump in achieving his rate cut goals [2][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may signal a rate cut in September, which could support gold prices due to expectations of increased liquidity [1][2] - The article highlights that as trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries progress, tariff risks are diminishing, which may positively impact market sentiment and industrial metal prices [1][2] - It notes that the macroeconomic environment is expected to influence industrial metal prices significantly, especially with key domestic meetings and trade talks scheduled for July [1][2] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is likely to support gold prices, especially with ongoing trade negotiations and potential tariff adjustments [2] - The industrial metals market is currently experiencing a seasonal slowdown, with weak demand and pressure on processing rates for metals like copper and aluminum, although macroeconomic factors may provide some support [2] - The article emphasizes that if domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting internal demand continue to be effective, alongside positive developments in trade negotiations and signals from the Federal Reserve, industrial metal prices could see significant support [2]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is expected to see stable profit growth in H1 2025, with net assets under pressure, driven by a recovery in the stock and bond markets and improved asset-liability matching [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Asset-Liability Matching - The stock and bond markets are anticipated to recover in H1 2025, leading to an increase in investment yields from FVTPL fixed income and equity assets, which will support stable profit growth for listed insurance companies [1]. - Despite a downward trend in long-term interest rates, which may elevate insurance contract liabilities and negatively impact net assets, the reduction in liability costs and strong performance of OCI financial assets will enhance asset-liability matching [1]. - The net profit margin for life insurance is expected to continue growing on a comparable basis, although individual insurance new business may face pressure while bancassurance new business is projected to grow significantly [1]. Group 2: Property Insurance Premiums and Cost Ratio Improvement - Property insurance premiums are expected to grow slowly in H1 2025, influenced by fluctuations in new car sales and declining average premiums per vehicle, while non-auto insurance is benefiting from structural optimization by leading insurers [2]. - The combined ratio for property insurance is expected to improve due to three main factors: reduced catastrophic losses, ongoing structural optimization by leading insurance companies, and active cost control measures [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The life insurance sector is projected to see continued growth in net business value (NBV), while the combined ratio for property insurance is expected to improve significantly [2]. - With the recovery of the stock and bond markets, listed insurance companies are likely to continue optimizing their asset allocation, further enhancing asset-liability matching [2]. - Current market valuations of insurance stocks reflect pessimistic expectations; therefore, there is an opportunity for valuation recovery in undervalued and underrepresented insurance stocks, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [2].

重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 ...

重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in thematic trading activity, particularly in Western infrastructure, with net inflows into brokerage and resource sectors. The focus is on the new round of market trends driven by emerging technology industries, especially AI and embodied intelligence [1]. Group 1: Thematic Trading Trends - The average daily trading volume for hot themes reached 671 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 4.02%, indicating a notable increase compared to the previous period [1]. - Major engineering projects related to hydropower saw substantial gains, while resource futures experienced a short squeeze, leading to strong stock price performance in related sectors [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized efforts to stabilize the market, which is expected to benefit thematic investments, particularly in AI and embodied intelligence driven by the upcoming AI conference [1]. Group 2: AI New Infrastructure - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference opened with significant product launches and new demand catalysts for the domestic AI industry chain [2]. - The conference focused on ten major areas, including AI infrastructure and AI-enabled new industrialization, which are expected to drive investment trends [2]. - Recommendations include sectors benefiting from large-scale applications of AI, such as research, autonomous driving, and fintech, as well as the domestic computing power industry [2]. Group 3: Embodied Intelligence - Domestic robotics startups are accelerating product launches and financing, with notable releases like the humanoid robot Unitree R1 priced from 39,900 yuan [3]. - The capital operations and financing processes of robotics companies are speeding up, supporting the industry's scale development [3]. - Recommendations focus on manufacturers capable of large-scale production and components benefiting from technological advancements [3]. Group 4: Regional Economy - The new open pattern represented by Hainan's customs closure and the Western infrastructure projects signifies new trends in regional economic development [4]. - Hainan's free trade port is set to officially launch customs closure by December 18, 2025, promoting a model of "open on one line, controlled on another, and free within the island" [4]. - Recommendations include sectors benefiting from Hainan's customs closure, such as transportation logistics and tourism, as well as industries driven by major engineering investments [4]. Group 5: Production Limits and Price Stabilization - Comprehensive measures to address "involution" competition are being implemented, with a draft price law seeking public input to regulate market pricing [4]. - The central government has emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition in industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [4]. - Recommendations include sectors facing issues with low-price competition and those with improved supply-side expectations, such as steel, coal, chemicals, and pig farming [4].

更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 重要提醒 ...

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 ...

报告导读： 煤炭价格见底回升，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 煤炭价格加速回暖，反内卷政策再升温 ；报告日期：2025.07.23 报告作者： 黄涛（分析师）登记编号：S0880515090001 王楠瑀（研究助理）登记编号： S0880123060041 重要提醒 计未来3个月是关键的基本面验证时点。 投资建议：从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心标的。 煤价继续回升，"反内卷"持续发酵。 2025年7月22日，国家能源局综合司发布促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通 知。通知显示，今年以来，全国煤炭供需形势总体宽松，价格持续下行，部分煤矿企业"以量补价"，超公 告产能组织生产严重扰乱煤炭市场秩序。为规范煤矿企业生产行为，促进煤炭供应平稳有序，国家能源局 拟于近期在重点产煤省(区)组织开展煤矿生产情况核查工作。1）需求端：5月开始，伴随天气的快速转 热，全社会用电量增速也提升至4.4%，带动火电发电量已经由负转正至1.2%，6月火电发电量同比 +1.1%。我们认为伴随全国正式进入盛夏，从当前气象数据显示今年夏天气温较历史平均更高，旺季需求 日 ...

Group 1 - In Q2 2025, actively managed equity public funds continued to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in their portfolios rising to 20% [1] - The concentration of holdings among actively managed public funds decreased, indicating a shift towards mid and small-cap stocks in Hong Kong [1] - The investment strategy involved increasing allocations to both growth assets like pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors, as well as dividend-paying assets such as non-bank financials and banks [1] Group 2 - Passive index funds also saw continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with approximately 280 billion yuan flowing in during Q2 2025, although at a slower rate compared to Q1 [2] - The total inflow through the Hong Kong Stock Connect for public funds in the first half of 2025 reached nearly 200 billion yuan, with a projected total for the year between 300 billion and 450 billion yuan [2] - The potential for further inflows remains significant, with an estimated theoretical allocation space of about 300 billion yuan for actively managed public funds [2] Group 3 - The momentum for southbound capital inflows is recovering, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares in the second half of the year [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to become a key focus, driven by advancements in AI and easing of trade restrictions between China and the US [3] - Other sectors such as high-dividend stocks, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are also highlighted as areas of interest for investment in the latter half of the year [3]