Core Viewpoint - Despite the easing of trade tensions, the private sector's risk appetite has rebounded and then declined, with limited progress in balance sheet repair, leading to persistently low inflation. The key to inflation recovery lies internally rather than externally, with more proactive policy measures expected in the second half of the year [1]. CPI Analysis - CPI remained low in May, with seasonal declines in food prices and input pressures from international oil prices. Service prices showed resilience, leading to an expanding gap between CPI and core CPI year-on-year [1][2]. - The transportation and communication prices decreased due to national subsidies and falling oil prices, which significantly impacted May's CPI. Core CPI remained flat at 0.0% month-on-month, with a slight year-on-year increase to 0.6% [3]. PPI Analysis - PPI recovery faced multiple constraints, including a decline in international commodity prices affecting domestic industries, particularly in oil and gas extraction, which saw significant month-on-month price drops [4][5]. - Adverse weather conditions impacted the peak season for coal demand, leading to a continued weakening trend in extraction prices, with construction materials like cement and rebar also showing notable declines in May [5]. - A slight month-on-month decline in exports exacerbated supply-demand mismatches, with tariff impacts on exports becoming more apparent. The easing of trade tensions has not significantly aided the repair of private sector balance sheets, as evidenced by a drop in risk appetite indicators [6].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in export growth in May 2025 is attributed to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, revealing the impact of tariffs on exports. However, exports still show resilience despite the expected drop in the export central tendency [1][5]. Overall Summary - In May 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 4.8% (previously 8.1%), while import growth was -3.4% (previously -0.2%). Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% compared to April, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels [2]. Trade Balance - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025 [3]. Export Structure - By country, the export growth rates to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America saw significant declines, recording -34.5%, 14.8%, and 2.3% respectively. In contrast, exports to other regions increased to 11.8% (previously 10.4%). In terms of product structure, agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw a notable decline, while machinery and raw materials remained relatively stable. Notably, exports of integrated circuits and ships in the machinery sector continued to perform strongly, with a resurgence in automotive exports [4]. Divergent Interpretations of Export Data - Optimists argue that the strong performance in April (8.1%) despite high tariffs suggests a rebound in May following the tariff easing on May 14, predicting a significant export rebound in June. Conversely, pessimists believe that the resilience in April was due to preemptive exports before the tariff implementation, and the decline in May indicates a depletion of future orders. The article concludes that the decline in May's export growth is a result of the cooling of preemptive exports and the impact of tariffs, but previous preemptive and transshipment trade has not significantly depleted future orders. Looking ahead, short-term indicators suggest that June's export growth may be supported by the easing of tariffs, while a normalization of exports is expected, leading to a gradual decline in export momentum without a drastic drop [5].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the continuous recommendation of innovative drugs and an increased focus on the Pharma sector, highlighting the high demand for innovative drugs and the potential for revaluation of the Pharma sector [1][2] - Recent business development (BD) activities indicate a strong demand from multinational pharmaceutical companies for high-quality innovative drug assets from China, suggesting a robust logic for innovative drugs going global [2] - The performance of the A-share pharmaceutical sector in the first week of June 2025 was on par with the overall market, with specific sub-sectors like chemical raw materials and chemical preparations showing relatively better performance [3] Group 2 - In the first week of June 2025, the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector outperformed the market, while the US pharmaceutical sector performed similarly to the market [3] - The current relative premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector compared to the entire A-share market is at a normal level of 86.84% as of June 6, 2025 [3]

投资建议： 近期科技板块利好持续释放，各类新技术、新政策、新业态持续落地，我们维持计算机板块 " 增持 " 评级。 报告导读： 中国香港发布《稳定币条例》，带动稳定币市场增长进入全新阶段，政务数据 与 AI 领域也同样在持续稳步发展。 本文摘自：2025年6月8日发布的 稳定币发展迎来重大利好，政务数据与AI同样值得关注 杨 林 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040027 杨昊翊 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040126 魏 宗 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040058 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 中国香港《稳定币条例》将于 8 月 1 日生效，稳定币发展迎来重大利好。 根据 21 世纪经济报道官微， 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article systematically categorizes A-share listed companies into four lifecycle stages: startup, growth, maturity, and consolidation, based on cash flow, and constructs corresponding optimal portfolios for each stage, achieving annualized excess returns of 14.0%, 15.0%, and 19.5% relative to benchmark indices since 2016 [1][3]. Group 1: Lifecycle Stages Characteristics - Startup companies typically have smaller market capitalizations, unstable profitability, and low dividend yields, but invest heavily in R&D [1]. - Growth companies show improved profitability with a balanced exposure across various factors [1]. - Mature companies are characterized by large market capitalizations, stable profitability, high dividend payout ratios, and healthier capital structures with lower debt ratios [1]. - Consolidation companies experience reduced scale, poorer profitability, lower dividend yields, and higher leverage with significant debt repayment pressures [1]. Group 2: Performance and Risk Characteristics - The buy-and-hold combinations across different lifecycle stages exhibit varying risk-return profiles, with mature companies showing the most stability and highest cumulative returns over time [2]. - Growth stock portfolios perform closely to market indices, while startup and consolidation stock portfolios exhibit higher volatility and lower returns [2]. - Factor performance varies across lifecycle stages, with low volatility and low turnover rates performing best in the riskier startup and consolidation phases [2]. Group 3: Optimal Portfolio Construction - The company constructs optimal portfolios for each lifecycle stage considering investment logic, factor effectiveness, and correlations, with the mature portfolio demonstrating the highest stability and an annualized return of 16.9% since 2016 [2]. - The mature portfolio has shown positive excess returns relative to common broad indices like the CSI All Share Index, CSI 300, and CSI 800 in most years, except for a 12% decline in 2018 [2].

Group 1: Cement Industry - The national cement market price decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, with price drops mainly in Shanxi, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, and Guangdong, ranging from 10 to 20 CNY per ton [1] - Some regions, including Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guangxi, experienced price increases of 20 to 30 CNY per ton [1] - Domestic cement demand remains weak due to multiple adverse factors, with an average shipment rate of 48% in key regions [1] - Although the Yangtze River Delta region has started to increase prices, the overall demand insufficiency and unclear peak production execution may hinder the effectiveness of this price increase [1] Group 2: Glass and Fiberglass - The average price of float glass in China is 1250.27 CNY per ton, down by 20.69 CNY per ton from the previous week, indicating a weak market with increased inventory due to the Dragon Boat Festival [2] - The fiberglass market saw local high prices decrease, while electronic yarn prices remained stable; however, demand is still weak with limited order growth [2] - The overall supply of non-alkali fiberglass is expected to maintain a certain growth rate, but competition among leading companies remains strong [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - June marks the beginning of a low base period for construction materials demand, with a significant decline expected from June to September 2024 due to local debt pressures in developed regions [3] - The glass processing sector shows resilience, with leading companies benefiting from high barriers to competition and favorable valuation and dividend advantages [3] - The fiberglass sector is seeing gradual price increases for long-term contracts, with leading companies having a higher sales proportion of high-end products [3]

Group 1: IPO Market Insights - The regulatory environment is increasingly supportive of high-quality IPO development, particularly for technology innovation companies, with multiple reforms implemented since 2025 [1][2] - New stock first-day price increases remain high, and the number of accounts participating in new stock subscriptions is rapidly recovering, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - The expected number of new stock issuances in 2025 is projected to be between 80 to 140, with a total fundraising scale around 94 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Shipping and Transportation Sector - The shipping industry is experiencing ongoing impacts from tariff policies, with a focus on the restructuring of shipping alliances and the potential for changes in global trade patterns [3] - The oil shipping sector is benefiting from increased crude oil production, which is expected to boost demand, alongside a favorable outlook due to the potential for falling oil prices [4][5] - The dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to gradually recover, driven by increased iron ore production and a potential rise in demand [6] Group 3: Bearing Industry and Robotics - The rise of humanoid robots is expected to create significant demand for bearings, particularly as high-end bearings and processing equipment currently rely heavily on imports, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution [9][10] - The global bearing market is projected to grow from 121.3 billion USD in 2021 to over 243.03 billion USD by 2030, with China being a major manufacturing hub [10][11] - The complexity of bearing processing technology presents challenges, particularly in high-precision grinding equipment, where domestic production is still below 50% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in promotional strategies during the 618 shopping festival, focusing on longer promotional periods and direct discounts per item rather than relying on GMV metrics [1][2]. Group 1: Platform Dynamics - The 618 promotional period has been extended to 38 days for JD.com, with Tmall and Douyin also adjusting their promotional timelines to enhance user decision-making [3]. - Major platforms are moving away from traditional cross-store discounts to "official direct discounts," with reductions of at least 15% and some items seeing discounts of up to 50% [3]. - The new single-item discount policy is expected to simplify user purchasing decisions, potentially increasing conversion rates despite a possible decline in overall GMV [3]. Group 2: Corporate Strategies - National subsidies are enhancing discount offerings, with brands like Ecovacs and Roborock providing significant price reductions during the 618 event [4]. - The pricing strategy for new and high-end SKUs has been adjusted, with discounts allowing for competitive pricing around 2000 yuan for flagship products [4]. - The anticipated increase in sales volume during the 618 event is supported by the combination of national subsidies and enhanced brand pricing strategies, although competition remains intense [4]. Group 3: Sales Performance Insights - Initial sales data from the first week of the 2025 618 event indicates a slowdown in overall industry growth compared to earlier months, attributed to the removal of the order bundling discount mechanism [5]. - Despite the potential decline in GMV, the actual conversion rates and return rates may improve, warranting further observation of corporate performance [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward in the coming week, supported by technical indicators and liquidity metrics [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock index for the CSI 300 was 0.30, indicating higher liquidity than the average level over the past year by 0.30 standard deviations [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.85, reflecting a reduced caution among investors regarding short-term movements [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.82% and 1.40%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates saw weekly increases of 0.15% and 0.25%, respectively [2]. - The official manufacturing PMI for China in May was reported at 49.5, matching expectations, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI was lower at 48.3 [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke through the SAR point on June 4, signaling a buy opportunity, with the moving average strength index scoring 207, placing it in the 81.6% percentile since 2021 [2][3]. Market Performance - For the week of June 2 to June 6, the SSE 50 index rose by 0.38%, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.88%, the CSI 500 index grew by 1.6%, and the ChiNext index surged by 2.32% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.2 times, which is in the 52.3% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Analysis - Small-cap factors performed well, with a crowding degree of 1.05, while low valuation factors had a crowding degree of 0.06 [3]. - The industry crowding degree is relatively high in machinery, comprehensive, retail, environmental protection, and beauty care sectors, with notable increases in beauty care and banking [3].

Group 1: Core Insights - Stablecoins are expected to alleviate short-term U.S. debt demand but have limited impact on long-term debt [1][3] - The global stablecoin market has surpassed $240 billion since 2025, with significant penetration in crypto trading, cross-border payments, and DeFi [1][2] - The market is highly concentrated, dominated by Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. GENIUS Act establishes a systematic regulatory framework for stablecoins at the federal level, enhancing market development [2] - Tether and Circle have become significant new buyers of U.S. Treasury securities, holding over $120 billion in short-term U.S. debt [2] - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation enhances local compliance and serves as a regional model for global stablecoin regulation [2] Group 3: Impact on U.S. Debt - Citigroup predicts the global stablecoin market could grow to $1.6 trillion by 2030, with a potential $1 trillion increase in short-term U.S. debt demand if stablecoin market reaches $2 trillion [3] - The GENIUS Act limits stablecoin reserves to cash or U.S. Treasury securities maturing within 93 days, restricting their impact to short-term debt [3] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Stablecoins exhibit "shadow banking" characteristics, posing systemic risks such as potential "de-pegging" and bank run scenarios [4] - The expansion of stablecoins may siphon deposits from the banking system, affecting credit expansion and monetary policy transmission [4] - Regulatory frameworks like the GENIUS Act and Hong Kong's regulations set high standards but require ongoing attention to risk transmission and regulatory arbitrage [4]