Core Insights - The main differences between the Shanghai and Shenzhen credit bond indices lie in duration, constituent bonds, and issuer concentration [1][2][4] - The total scale of credit bond ETFs has significantly increased, with a net growth of 95.4% since Q2, reaching a total scale of 304.2 billion yuan [1][4] Group 1: Credit Bond ETF Overview - The total number of bond ETFs in China has reached 29, with credit bond ETFs accounting for 11 of them, totaling 156.5 billion yuan, which is 51.45% of the total bond ETF scale [1][2] - The scale of credit bond ETFs has increased by 764 billion yuan since Q2, with individual ETFs showing growth rates between 104% and 201% [1][4] Group 2: Comparison of Shanghai and Shenzhen Indices - The Shanghai credit bond index consists of 212 constituent bonds with a total scale of 587.7 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen index has 220 bonds totaling 364 billion yuan [2][3] - The weighted duration of the Shanghai index is 4.11 years, compared to 3.05 years for the Shenzhen index, indicating a longer duration for the Shanghai index [2][4] Group 3: Growth of Constituent Bonds - The number of constituent bonds in the Shanghai index has increased by 44 since the end of 2024, while the Shenzhen index has seen an increase of 102 [3] - The total scale of constituent bonds in the Shanghai index has grown by 92.5 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen index has increased by 101.7 billion yuan [3]

Group 1 - The overall economic operation remains stable, with a temporary pause in the impact of holidays and tariffs [1] - Post-holiday consumption of goods and services has seen a decline, while investment in infrastructure is slowing down and real estate is under pressure, although construction progress is marginally accelerating [1] - Port operations are returning to normal, with a short-term increase in freight rates followed by a relief in tight shipping capacity [1] Group 2 - Production indicators in industries such as coal, electricity, steel, and automobiles have shown a year-on-year decline [1] - There is a continuous reduction in coal inventory, while the PTA industry chain exhibits a divergence in inventory levels between upstream and downstream [1] - Consumer prices for most goods have risen, while most industrial products have decreased in price, with only slight increases in crude oil and construction-related materials like asphalt and copper [1] Group 3 - After the month-end, liquidity conditions have improved with a decline in funding rates, and the renminbi has appreciated [1]

投资建议： 新消费与价值成长并行，大众品首选成长，重视换季消费机会，白酒绝对价值显现。 报告导读： 新消费与价值成长并行，把握换季机会，估值提升。白酒短期受政策影响，长 期绝对价值凸显。大众品啤酒饮料旺季催化，大单品新渠道成长性凸出。 新消费与价值成长并行，标的分化和估值提升。 一方面， 新渠道和新品类创新驱动新消费结构性红利， 主要体现在零食、保健品、食品添加剂赛道；另一方面，传统食品饮料龙头依赖强大的产品创新能力、渠 道拓展能力实现大单品的稳健强劲增长，主要体现在啤酒、饮料赛道。我们预计新消费与价值成长并行， 龙头间或将逐步出现分化，新消费标的估值有望创新高，传统消费估值或将提升。 白酒：短期受政策影响，长期绝对价值凸显。 近期中共中央、国务院印发修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反 对浪费条例》，其中涉及用酒部分我们认为属于纪律的再度强调，我们预计白酒行业龙头或将持续挖掘新 场景和潜在增量，加速白酒商品属性重塑和消费结构转型。对于白酒板块，我们延续前期观点，行业 2025Q2 产业景气度环比角度仍在寻底，价格端压力大于量的压力，大部分企业短期业绩表现愈发依赖于 核心市场的市占率提升，且愈发依赖于腰部及以下单品驱 ...

Group 1: Stablecoins and Global Currency System - Stablecoins are typically pegged to stable assets like fiat currencies (mainly USD), precious metals, or other cryptocurrencies, providing relative stability in value [1] - The stablecoin market has significantly expanded since 2020, currently valued at nearly $245 billion, driven by advantages in payment settlements, demand from the expanding cryptocurrency market, and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The development of stablecoins essentially extends the dominance of the USD into the cryptocurrency realm, although the ongoing de-globalization of the USD may not be reversed by stablecoin growth [2] Group 2: China's Market Outlook - The "transformation bull" market in China is becoming clearer, with strategic optimism for 2025 driven by reduced marginal impacts from valuation contractions and a shift in investor expectations [3] - Key drivers for this market include a decline in risk-free rates, effective economic policies, and a focus on investor returns, which are crucial for changing risk perceptions among investors [3][4] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as finance, emerging technology, and cyclical consumption, with recommendations for stocks in brokerage, banking, insurance, and new consumer trends [4][5] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed the A-share market since the beginning of the year, with a 19% increase in the Hang Seng Index, driven by sectors like healthcare, technology, and consumer goods [7] - The scarcity of certain assets in the Hong Kong market, particularly those related to AI applications and new consumption trends, is a significant factor in its outperformance [7][8] - Positive factors supporting the Hong Kong market's upward trajectory include fundamental recovery and improved liquidity, with a focus on technology stocks benefiting from accelerated AI applications [8]

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重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 ...

亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 5000人盛会，1场主论坛 +33 场分论坛，1000+上市公司 ，200+重磅专家，2000+场交流， 1.5 万+次 交流需求撮合。总量会场全程直播，全网 36万+人次观看。 本次会议分论坛数量、参会人数、上市公司数量、交流场次数量均创公司历届策略会新高！ 感谢您的参与！期待下次相聚！ 更多国泰海通研究和服务 法律声明 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that coal prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with an expected turning point in June as temperatures rise and inventory decreases [1] - The recent reduction in railway freight rates for coal transportation from Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reflects significant losses in these regions, leading to a decrease in transportation costs [1] - In April, national coal production saw a substantial decrease of 50 million tons to 390 million tons, indicating a self-induced reduction in supply due to economic factors at a port price of 650 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - For thermal coal, a price rebound is anticipated in June, with the current market price for Q5500 coal at 621 RMB/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week [2] - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decline, with expectations that total supply will maintain stability throughout the year [2] - The demand side shows signs of recovery, particularly in non-electric coal, which is expected to help coal prices return to an upward trajectory [2] Group 3 - In the coking coal sector, the price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is currently 1270 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton (-2.3%) from the previous week, indicating a peak in iron and steel demand [3] - The average daily iron and steel production is reported at 2.4185 million tons, showing a slight decrease, suggesting that the peak in iron and steel production has been reached [3] - The cost of domestic coking coal remains lower than that of imported coal, with a significant price advantage of 448 RMB/ton for domestic coking coal compared to Australian imports [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring market expectations and institutional movements in response to unpredictable major events like the US-China tariff disputes, suggesting that strategies should be adjusted flexibly to balance risk and return [1]. Summary by Sections Phase 1: Accumulation of Bullish Forces Before April 3 Tariff Implementation - The market from late March to early April 2025 can be divided into "consolidation" and "breakout" phases, where indicators such as KUP1, cors, HIGH0, and KSFT1 effectively reflected the accumulation of bullish forces, signaling an impending market turning point [2]. - HIGH0 was the first indicator to issue a bullish signal [2]. - The weak fluctuation in treasury futures alongside rising volume-price correlation indicated a weakening of bearish energy, with cors subsequently issuing a bullish signal [2]. - KUP1 and KSFT1 indicators confirmed the bullish turning point simultaneously [2]. Phase 2: Marginal Exit of Speculative Funds Before May 12 Negotiation Results - In early May 2025, the treasury futures market exhibited characteristics of "price increase with volume decrease," reflecting the marginal withdrawal of speculative funds [2]. - On May 7, KUP1, HIGH0, and KSFT1 simultaneously indicated a contraction in bullish momentum [2]. - The contraction of bullish forces was further confirmed by cors on May 9, with a release of profit-taking demand leading to a subsequent reduction in trading volume [2]. Current Situation and Recommendations - As of late May, the US tariff policy remains volatile, and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict alongside Middle Eastern risks creates a turbulent overseas environment; however, the domestic bond market remains in a narrow fluctuation pattern [3]. - The KSFT1 indicator has issued a mildly bullish signal, suggesting a release of bearish sentiment, while other indicators have yet to confirm further changes in bullish and bearish forces [3]. - Historical backtesting shows that KSFT1 broke below the threshold on May 28 and May 30, indicating that bearish sentiment may have been sufficiently released, issuing a mildly bullish signal [3]. - Continuous monitoring of the aforementioned volume-price indicators is recommended to capture the movements of major institutional investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares continue to rebound in May, supported by a series of favorable policies, with a recommendation for fund allocation to maintain a balanced style while slightly favoring growth and focusing on fund managers' stock selection and risk control capabilities [1][2]. Fund Investment Strategy - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the levels of the past three years. The internal resolution of low inflation is crucial, as external factors are less significant due to China's manufacturing competitiveness [2]. - The strategy team believes that emerging technology remains a long-term mainstay in the A-share market, while cyclical finance may become a dark horse. Additionally, cyclical products with improved competitive dynamics and tight supply-demand logic, as well as new consumption areas driven by demand and innovation, are also worth attention [2]. - The market structure of value and growth styles will likely continue to present structural investment opportunities in 2024, suggesting a slight preference for growth in fund allocation while maintaining overall balance [2]. Bond Funds - June is a critical transition period for strategies, recommending a combination of liquidity and yield in position selection, and to prepare for the next round of interest rate declines by switching to more liquid varieties [3]. - With the recovery of the equity market, fixed income plus funds also hold certain allocation value, warranting continued attention [3]. QDII and Commodity Funds - Global central banks' gold purchasing behavior reflects a long-term and ongoing trend, indicating a restructuring of the global monetary system due to changes in trust foundations [3]. - The rise of trade protectionism and the restructuring of the global economy will increase economic differentiation, supporting residents' demand for gold [3]. - The current gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle for the bull market, thus recommending appropriate allocation to gold ETFs from a long-term and hedging investment perspective [3].