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国泰海通|非银:稳定币,新交易场景的一般等价物——稳定币专题研究
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-06 10:58
报告导读: 稳定币源起加密货币,成为新交易场景下的一般等价物;各地区加速立法,规 范行业发展。当前已经形成五方参与的发行和流通完整生态。 稳定币源起加密货币,构建新交易场景的一般等价物。 稳定币是一种与法定货币或现实资产挂钩的加密货 币,其产生源自加密货币世界中人们的交易需求。稳定币出现前,数字资产与现金因为在不同的市场,结 算低效,难以顺畅交易,流动性匮乏导致价格剧烈波动。稳定币锚定法币后,成为数字资产与现金的交易 中介,用户可快速用稳定币兑换各类数字货币,市场流动性显著改善,主流币种波动率也显著降低。稳定 币经过十余年发展,规模得到显著扩张,当前规模已经突破 2500 亿美元。各地区加速立法,美国于 2025 年 5 月参议会投票通过《 GENIUS 法案》,中国香港立法会于 5 月 21 日通过《稳定币条例草 案》,并于 5 月 30 日正式刊宪生效。 稳定币已形成发行和流通的完整生态,发行方、托管方、资产管理方、交易平台方、做市商共同参与其 中。 稳定币生态包括一级市场和二级市场,一级市场实现稳定币的发行,主要面向各类机构,包括交易所 及授权经销商等,发行方获取的资金会一比一托管在银行等机构,并投资于 ...
国泰海通|新能源:产业化进程加速,催化密集落地——固态电池行业系列之四
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-05 22:12
报告导读: 车端开启路测,全固态电池产业化进程加速,近期催化密集落地,看好全固态 电池产业化趋势,建议持续关注产业链相关企业进展。 投资建议: 全固态电池产业化进程加速,看好固态电池产业链相关公司。 宝马、奔驰等车企开启路测,全固态电池产业化进程加速。 首批搭载全固态电池的宝马电动汽车已经正式 上路进行测试,采用美国 Solid Power 研发的硫化物电解质棱柱电池。 梅赛德斯 - 奔驰全新固态电池技 术已在量产车行开展测试,能量密度高达 450Wh/kg ,满电续航超过 1000km 。 长安汽车预计 2026 年实现固态电池装车验证, 2027 年推进全固态电池逐步量产,能量密度达 400Wh/kg 。 上汽集团新一 代固态电池将于 25 年底在全新 MG4 上量产应用,预计 2027 年上汽首款全固态电池"光启电池"将落 地。 全固态趋势确定,锂电池企业竞速抢位。 国轩高科发布金石全固态电池,建成首条 0.2GWh 中试线,核 心设备 100% 国产化,并且开启装车路测。 宁德时代全固态电池技术行业领先, 2027 年有望实现小批 量生产。 孚能科技充分发挥软包及 SPS 优势,能量密度 400-50 ...
国泰海通|金工:风格轮动模型持续得到验证,行业轮动两模型均推荐配置非银——风格及行业观点月报(2025.06)
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-05 22:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the style rotation model has been continuously validated, with macroeconomic factors driving large-cap and value signals in Q2 2025. In May, the market favored large-cap and value styles, with large-cap outperforming small-cap by 0.56% and value outperforming growth by 3.40% [1][2]. - In May, the single-factor multi-strategy model showed a monthly return of 3.31%, with an excess return of 0.33% relative to the benchmark [1][2]. - The dual-driven rotation strategy for large-cap and value signals received a composite score of 3, predicting a favorable outlook for large-cap and value styles in Q2 2025 [1][2]. Group 2 - The industry rotation model for May indicated that the single-factor multi-strategy outperformed with an excess return of 0.33%, while the composite factor strategy had an excess return of -0.64% [2]. - For June, the recommended long positions in the single-factor multi-strategy include non-bank financials, electronics, and banks, while the composite factor strategy recommends non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, building materials, basic chemicals, and steel [2].
国泰海通 · 晨报0606|有色
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-05 22:12
>>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 : 出口管制催化,供需或加速错配 , 具体分析内容(包括风险提示等) 请详见 完 整版 报告。 每周一景: 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单,收听朗读版 外盘稀土涨价为锚,内盘价格或随着出口许可下发形成海外"反向收储"通道。 由于海外的中重稀土氧化 物及磁材主要依赖中国供给,我们认为 2024 年以来稀土价格处于较低位置,海外终端需求方出于经济利 益考量,保持较低库存运行,从中国出口量也可以看出海外并未大规模补库。但中国此次实行中重稀土管 制后,海外中重稀土价格大幅上涨,将激发海外刚性需意求的补库愿。据 SMM ,中国从 5 月中旬开始 已经向部分稀土磁材生产商发动出口许可,随着合规化稀土磁材出口恢复正常,海外涨价有望向国内传 导。 复盘来看,中国实施出口管制的金属品种,多数有明显涨价。 2023 年以来中国先后对锗、镓、锑、钨、 碲、铋、钼、铟、中重稀土等金属品种实施出口管制,这些小金属品种多数在国防军工、电子信息、航 空、精密制造等领域扮演重要地位,从价格表现来看,中国实施出口管制后,多数品种实现了较大幅度的 价格上涨。 中国实施中重稀土出口管制后,海外中重稀 ...
国泰海通|固收:纳入质押库即将落地,信用债ETF全解析——被动指数债基系列专题五
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-05 22:12
Core Insights - The introduction of general pledged repos for credit bond ETFs is expected to equalize the functional differences between credit bond ETFs and underlying assets, potentially lowering financing costs and enhancing investor returns [1][2]. Group 1: General Pledged Repo Implementation - Nine credit bond ETFs have received approval letters from China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, allowing them to be included in the repo collateral pool, with a total scale exceeding 70 billion yuan as of the end of May [1]. - The implementation of general pledged repos is anticipated to release policy dividends, further promoting the growth of credit bond ETFs [1][2]. Group 2: Mechanism and Risk Management - The standard bond system will be adopted for the general pledged repo, with collateral eligibility determined by bond type and rating, while the 2025 guidelines expand the scope but raise rating requirements [2]. - Daily mark-to-market pricing will be used for repo discount rates, and any adjustments in collateral eligibility or discount rates may necessitate timely replenishment of collateral to avoid shortfall risks [2]. Group 3: Benefits of Credit Bond ETFs - Using credit bond ETFs as collateral can enhance convenience and reduce the volatility of discount rates, thereby lowering pledge risks and overall financing costs [3]. - The frequency and magnitude of discount rate adjustments for credit bonds can lead to higher transaction costs during extreme market conditions, making ETFs a more stable option for collateral [3]. Group 4: Performance Differentiation Among Bond ETFs - Performance differentiation may occur among bond ETFs, even those tracking the same index, due to variations in underlying asset liquidity and management strategies [4]. - Index funds may adopt sampling replication methods and exhibit active management characteristics to address liquidity constraints, leading to potential deviations from the index [4].
国泰海通证券2025年中期策略会成功召开
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-05 22:12
Core Viewpoint - The conference organized by Guotai Junan Securities highlighted the increasing confidence of domestic and international investors in investing in China, driven by a series of policies aimed at enhancing technological self-reliance, stabilizing capital markets, and expanding high-level openness [3]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The 2025 Mid-term Strategy Conference took place in Shanghai from June 4 to 5, featuring a main forum and 33 sub-forums, with over 200 speakers and nearly 1,000 executives from listed companies attending, marking record participation [1]. - The conference attracted over 5,000 registrations and organized more than 2,000 client interactions, setting new highs for Guotai Junan Securities' strategy meetings [1]. Group 2: Key Presentations - Notable speakers included Huang Qifan, Liu Shijun, and Guo Kai, who discussed topics such as new productive forces, consumption expansion, structural reforms, and the evolution of the Middle East situation [4]. - Guotai Junan's Chief Macro Analyst Liang Zhonghua emphasized the restructuring of the global economic and monetary systems, highlighting risks related to U.S. debt and the potential for further interest rate increases [7]. - Chief Strategy Analyst Fang Yi presented a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, identifying a "transformation bull" market driven by policy measures aimed at debt resolution and demand stimulation [8]. Group 3: Sub-forums and Topics - The first day featured 13 sub-forums, with a focus on macroeconomic outlooks and investment strategies for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6]. - The second day included 20 sub-forums covering various topics such as European market investment outlooks and wealth management strategies, featuring prominent international guests [9]. Group 4: Investor Engagement and Services - Guotai Junan Securities utilized its Daohe APP to provide live streaming of the forums and thematic services focused on emerging technologies, enhancing engagement with professional investors [10]. - The live streaming programs received positive feedback, with over 360,000 views, showcasing the company's commitment to delivering valuable insights and services to its clients [10].
国泰海通|传媒:AI应用发展,关注重点细分赛道机会
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-05 22:12
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the continuous improvement of AI applications driven by technological advancements, highlighting that certain sectors have achieved user growth, retention, and monetization, warranting sustained attention on key sectors and leading products [1][2]. Sector Comparison - The comprehensive assistant sector shows broad coverage, with deeper penetration in social, education, and office applications. Mature products attract user traffic, with AI assistants and image editing leading the way. Products like DeepSeek demonstrate breakthrough growth due to excellent performance [2]. - In terms of user stickiness, social interaction products have developed robust features that foster user engagement. The education sector exhibits strong payment habits, with customers willing to pay for high-quality products. Content production tools can command high prices due to significant computational demands and diverse needs [2]. Key Product Analysis - The comprehensive assistant sector is witnessing transformative changes, with products like Doubao introducing "video call" features, indicating a shift in AI interaction methods. Tencent's Yuanbao showcases the positive impact of its ecosystem on product capabilities and user acquisition [3]. - In the AI video domain, products such as Keli, Jimeng, and Hailuo have demonstrated excellent performance with stable user demand. Google's recent launch of VEO3 marks a new phase in "audio-visual synchronized generation," potentially guiding the next stage of AI video development [3]. - The popularity of AI Agents, particularly with Manus, has sparked interest, with domestic players like Kunlun Wanwei's Tiangong Super Intelligent Agent achieving impressive test scores. This suggests more opportunities in complex task completion [3]. - AI companionship products exhibit strong user stickiness, although monetization through UGC models remains a challenge. Future attention may be directed towards premium products like "EVE," which could offer new insights for the industry [3].
精彩花絮10|“潮起东方,新质领航”国泰海通证券2025中期策略会
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-05 19:56
本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险,还请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意,非常感谢您的理解与配合!如有任何疑问,敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 ...
精彩花絮9|“潮起东方,新质领航”国泰海通证券2025中期策略会
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-05 19:05
本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险,还请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意,非常感谢您的理解与配合!如有任何疑问,敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 ...
精彩花絮8|“潮起东方,新质领航”国泰海通证券2025中期策略会
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-05 19:05
本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制,根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求,若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户,为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险,还请取消关注,请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意,非常感谢您的理解与配合!如有任何疑问,敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 重要提醒 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...