本 文摘自：2025年5月26日发布的 宏观扰动再起，金属价格震荡运行 于嘉懿 ，资格证书编号： S0880522080001 刘小华 ，资格证书编号： S0880523120003 报告导读： 特朗普全面减税法案的最终落地、以及其关税威胁均存在不确定性，市场情 绪反复之下，金价或呈现震荡。国内宏观利好频出，或将对冲部分海外影响，不过仍需 关注淡季下游需求反馈，工业品价格预计震荡运行。 周期研判： 特朗普全面减税法案，在美众议院预算委员会获得通过，引发市场对于美财政赤字担忧，且特 朗普再度发动对欧盟等关税威胁，市场避险情绪上升，金价上行。然该法案的最终落地、以及特朗普关税 威胁均存在不确定性，市场情绪反复之下，金价或呈现震荡。同时国内宏观方面利好频出，或将对冲部分 海外影响，进入传统淡季，需关注下游对工业金属需求反馈，工业品价格预计震荡运行。 贵金属：市场情绪反复，金价或延续震荡。 5 月 22 日，美国总统特朗普的全面减税法案，在美国众议院 获得通过，引发市场对于美财政赤字的担忧，长期美债遭遇抛售，叠加周五特朗普提出对欧盟、苹果、三 星加征关税，美股下跌、美元指数单周下跌约 2% 。同时，据美国有线电视新闻 ...

法律声明 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various companies across different sectors, highlighting their significance in the market [2][4][5] - It provides a comprehensive list of companies in technology, finance, healthcare, and other industries, indicating their potential for investment opportunities [6][7][8] - The focus is on the growth and innovation within these sectors, showcasing how companies are adapting to market demands [10][11][12] Group 2 - The technology sector is represented by companies like 京东方 and 海康威视, which are noted for their advancements in electronics and software [4][5] - The healthcare industry features companies such as 复宏汉霖 and 微创医疗, emphasizing the ongoing developments in medical technology and pharmaceuticals [49][50] - The article also mentions the renewable energy sector, highlighting companies like 爱旭股份 and 晶科能源, which are contributing to sustainable energy solutions [17][18] Group 3 - The food and beverage industry is covered with companies like 伊利股份 and 泸州老窖, reflecting consumer trends and market growth [19][20] - The automotive sector includes major players like 比亚迪 and 上汽集团, indicating the shift towards electric vehicles and smart transportation [15][16] - The article concludes with insights into the financial technology sector, featuring companies like 易鑫集团 and 中泰证券, which are transforming traditional banking practices [51][52]

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 重要提醒 ...

更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 重要提醒 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to the guidelines set forth by the Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures, particularly for clients of Guotai Junan Securities [2] - It highlights that the content is exclusively for signed clients of Guotai Junan Securities research services, ensuring quality and risk control [2] - The article expresses gratitude for the understanding and cooperation of readers who may not be signed clients, indicating a focus on maintaining service quality [2] Group 2 - The document includes a legal disclaimer, reinforcing the need for compliance with regulations regarding the dissemination of investment-related information [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to the guidelines set forth by the Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures, particularly for clients of Guotai Junan Securities [2] - It highlights that the content is exclusively for signed clients of Guotai Junan Securities research services, ensuring quality and risk control [2] - The article expresses gratitude for the understanding and cooperation of readers who may not be signed clients, indicating a focus on maintaining service quality [2] Group 2 - The document includes a legal disclaimer, reinforcing the need for compliance with regulations and the limitations of the information provided [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in Japan's ultra-long bond yields, attributed to increased market concerns over supply shocks and fiscal sustainability due to Japan's expansionary fiscal policies, weak domestic demand for ultra-long bonds, and a lackluster auction of 20-year government bonds [1][2] - The article notes that the current scale of yen carry trades is relatively small, suggesting that the spillover effects on global liquidity are manageable [1] - Future attention should be directed towards upcoming Japanese government bond auctions, potential dovish signals from the Bank of Japan to alleviate market panic, and the results of the July Japanese House of Councillors election [1] Group 2 - In the U.S. economy, there has been a rebound in the year-on-year growth rate of new and existing home sales as of April, and both the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations in May [2] - The Eurozone's PMI fell below the threshold due to weakening service sector sentiment in May, while the consumer confidence index for the Eurozone's 27 countries saw a slight recovery but remains at a relatively low level [2] - Short-term monetary policy outlooks indicate that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious about rate cuts, the European Central Bank may cut rates in June, and the Bank of Japan officials are cautious about rate hikes amid high economic uncertainty [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a period of tariff easing, leading to a rebound in exports while domestic demand shows increasing divergence [1] Group 2 - High-frequency data indicates a mixed performance in consumption, with strong automobile sales [1] - Investment in infrastructure is accelerating, while real estate sales show marginal improvement amidst a sluggish land market [1] - Exports are rebounding rapidly, supported by resilient overseas demand, with port data and export freight rates rising quickly due to concentrated shipments from previously accumulated inventories [1] Group 3 - Production is exhibiting a trend of industry divergence, with a rebound in the photovoltaic production index, while the operating rates in sectors like steel and petrochemicals are declining [1] - Coal inventories are decreasing from high levels, and there is an accelerated reduction in steel inventories [1] Group 4 - Price performance is generally subdued, with most high-frequency indicators related to CPI and PPI showing a downward trend [1] - In terms of liquidity, the US dollar index has significantly declined, while the Chinese yuan continues to appreciate [1]

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 我们认为，转债市场未来或因供需错配而迎来牛市。 需求方面，低利率环境下资金将持续寻求合意标的， 同时当前的转债双低策略能够稳定跑赢基金业绩基准中常用的中证转债指数，或将吸引新规后的公募资 金；供给方面，参考日本 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月24日发布的 转债或迎供需错配牛 郑子勋 ，资格证书编号 ： S0880525040047 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 90 年代信用债放量、转债缩量的历史经验，当前我国大力提振科创债发行，信用债发行放量，对转债可 能形成一定挤出效应。 而从 24 年底至今，转债市场风险偏好持续上行。 牛市初期，低风险偏好先上行，然后过渡到高风险偏好 （类似股市风格轮动的先价值，后成长）。牛市如果 ...