Macro - Japan's ultra-long bond yields have risen significantly due to increased market concerns over bond supply shocks from fiscal expansion influenced by tariffs [1] - Demand for ultra-long bonds from domestic institutions has been weak since 2025, contributing to the supply-demand imbalance [1] - The recent cold reception of Japanese government bond auctions has exacerbated negative market sentiment [1] - Future attention should be paid to upcoming government bond auctions, potential dovish signals from the Bank of Japan, and the results of the July Senate elections [1] Fixed Income - Japan's 20-year government bond auction showed a rapid decline in market demand, reaching a new low since 2012, with the auction tail spread hitting the highest level since 1987 [4] - The yield on Japan's 20-year bonds surged to 2.539%, the highest since 2000, while the 10-year and 30-year yields also reached record highs [4] - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio was 219.15% in Q1 2025, the highest among developed economies, with rising interest rates further increasing debt servicing costs [5] - The Bank of Japan's ongoing reduction in bond purchases necessitates finding new buyers for government bonds [5] - Rising inflation and interest rate pressures in Japan make long-term bond yields difficult to decrease [5] - The rapid rise in Japanese bond yields poses risks of fiscal strain, losses for bondholders, and potential spillover effects on global bond markets [6] - The impact of rising yields on China's bond market is expected to be limited due to differing inflation environments and fiscal conditions [6] Non-Ferrous Metals - The lithium and cobalt sectors are experiencing price fluctuations, with lithium prices showing signs of stabilization despite high inventory levels [8] - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a weekly average of 61,600 yuan/ton, down 2.25% from the previous week [9] - Cobalt raw material supply is tightening, but demand remains cautious, leading to a weak overall market [10] - Phosphate iron lithium and ternary material prices have also seen declines, with phosphate iron lithium averaging 30,300 yuan/ton, down 1.16% [11]

Market Overview - The overall trading heat in the market has slightly decreased, with a decline in market sentiment and a drop in the average daily trading volume from 12.7 trillion to 11.7 trillion CNY [1] - The average daily number of stocks hitting the daily limit has decreased to 69, with the maximum consecutive limit hits being 5 [1] - The proportion of stocks that rose has dropped to 30%, and the median weekly return for all A-shares has fallen to -1.44% [1] Fund Flows - Financing funds continue to flow in, while ETF funds are experiencing outflows [2] - The new issuance scale of equity funds has increased to 9.5 billion CNY, with existing public fund positions rising by 0.2% [2] - Foreign capital has seen a net outflow of 700 million USD, with the inflow scale of A-shares dropping to a historical percentile of 7.6% [2] - The net inflow of financing has been 2 billion CNY, with the transaction volume proportion rising to 8.2% [2] Industry Allocation - There is a significant divergence in funding between foreign capital and margin financing in the automotive and electric new energy sectors, with financing funds increasing while foreign capital is decreasing [3] - The net inflow in the automotive sector is 2.79 billion CNY, while the computer sector has seen a net outflow of 1.41 billion CNY [3] - In the ETF market, the defense and military industry has seen a net inflow of 1.74 billion CNY, while the medical and electric new energy sectors have experienced outflows of 3.71 billion CNY and 1.75 billion CNY, respectively [3] Hong Kong and Global Fund Flows - Southbound capital inflow has accelerated, with a net inflow of 19 billion CNY, ranking in the 73rd percentile since 2022 [4] - Foreign capital has seen a net outflow of 721 million USD from Hong Kong stocks [4] - Developed markets have generally attracted foreign capital inflows, with the US and France leading in net inflows of 2 billion USD and 760 million USD, respectively [4]

本 文摘自：2025年5月26日发布的 宏观扰动再起，金属价格震荡运行 于嘉懿 ，资格证书编号： S0880522080001 刘小华 ，资格证书编号： S0880523120003 报告导读： 特朗普全面减税法案的最终落地、以及其关税威胁均存在不确定性，市场情 绪反复之下，金价或呈现震荡。国内宏观利好频出，或将对冲部分海外影响，不过仍需 关注淡季下游需求反馈，工业品价格预计震荡运行。 周期研判： 特朗普全面减税法案，在美众议院预算委员会获得通过，引发市场对于美财政赤字担忧，且特 朗普再度发动对欧盟等关税威胁，市场避险情绪上升，金价上行。然该法案的最终落地、以及特朗普关税 威胁均存在不确定性，市场情绪反复之下，金价或呈现震荡。同时国内宏观方面利好频出，或将对冲部分 海外影响，进入传统淡季，需关注下游对工业金属需求反馈，工业品价格预计震荡运行。 贵金属：市场情绪反复，金价或延续震荡。 5 月 22 日，美国总统特朗普的全面减税法案，在美国众议院 获得通过，引发市场对于美财政赤字的担忧，长期美债遭遇抛售，叠加周五特朗普提出对欧盟、苹果、三 星加征关税，美股下跌、美元指数单周下跌约 2% 。同时，据美国有线电视新闻 ...

法律声明 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various companies across different sectors, highlighting their significance in the market [2][4][5] - It provides a comprehensive list of companies in technology, finance, healthcare, and other industries, indicating their potential for investment opportunities [6][7][8] - The focus is on the growth and innovation within these sectors, showcasing how companies are adapting to market demands [10][11][12] Group 2 - The technology sector is represented by companies like 京东方 and 海康威视, which are noted for their advancements in electronics and software [4][5] - The healthcare industry features companies such as 复宏汉霖 and 微创医疗, emphasizing the ongoing developments in medical technology and pharmaceuticals [49][50] - The article also mentions the renewable energy sector, highlighting companies like 爱旭股份 and 晶科能源, which are contributing to sustainable energy solutions [17][18] Group 3 - The food and beverage industry is covered with companies like 伊利股份 and 泸州老窖, reflecting consumer trends and market growth [19][20] - The automotive sector includes major players like 比亚迪 and 上汽集团, indicating the shift towards electric vehicles and smart transportation [15][16] - The article concludes with insights into the financial technology sector, featuring companies like 易鑫集团 and 中泰证券, which are transforming traditional banking practices [51][52]

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 重要提醒 ...

更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 重要提醒 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to the guidelines set forth by the Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures, particularly for clients of Guotai Junan Securities [2] - It highlights that the content is exclusively for signed clients of Guotai Junan Securities research services, ensuring quality and risk control [2] - The article expresses gratitude for the understanding and cooperation of readers who may not be signed clients, indicating a focus on maintaining service quality [2] Group 2 - The document includes a legal disclaimer, reinforcing the need for compliance with regulations regarding the dissemination of investment-related information [3]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to the guidelines set forth by the Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures, particularly for clients of Guotai Junan Securities [2] - It highlights that the content is exclusively for signed clients of Guotai Junan Securities research services, ensuring quality and risk control [2] - The article expresses gratitude for the understanding and cooperation of readers who may not be signed clients, indicating a focus on maintaining service quality [2] Group 2 - The document includes a legal disclaimer, reinforcing the need for compliance with regulations and the limitations of the information provided [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in Japan's ultra-long bond yields, attributed to increased market concerns over supply shocks and fiscal sustainability due to Japan's expansionary fiscal policies, weak domestic demand for ultra-long bonds, and a lackluster auction of 20-year government bonds [1][2] - The article notes that the current scale of yen carry trades is relatively small, suggesting that the spillover effects on global liquidity are manageable [1] - Future attention should be directed towards upcoming Japanese government bond auctions, potential dovish signals from the Bank of Japan to alleviate market panic, and the results of the July Japanese House of Councillors election [1] Group 2 - In the U.S. economy, there has been a rebound in the year-on-year growth rate of new and existing home sales as of April, and both the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations in May [2] - The Eurozone's PMI fell below the threshold due to weakening service sector sentiment in May, while the consumer confidence index for the Eurozone's 27 countries saw a slight recovery but remains at a relatively low level [2] - Short-term monetary policy outlooks indicate that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious about rate cuts, the European Central Bank may cut rates in June, and the Bank of Japan officials are cautious about rate hikes amid high economic uncertainty [2]