报告导读： 商务部启动模拟芯片反倾销调查，国内模拟芯片产业将迎来盈利和份额的双重 提升。 商务 部于 2025 年 9 月 13 日依据《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》，对原产于美国的进口相关模拟芯片启动反倾销立案调查。 本次倾销调查期明确为 2024 年 1 月 1 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，聚焦过去一年美国相关产品的价格与销售行为；产业损害调查期则覆盖 2022 年至 2024 年三年，旨在通过长期数据 评估美国进口芯片对国内产业的持续影响，整体调查按惯例将在 2026 年 9 月 13 日前完成，若遇复杂情况可延长 6 个月。调查范围为原产于美国的进口相 关模拟芯片具体指向使用 40nm 及以上工艺制程的通用接口芯片与栅极驱动芯片。 盈利空间方面，海外模拟大厂价格战挤压行业利润，反倾销调查释放行业盈利空间。 以 2023 年为例，德州仪器率先发起价格战， 5 月全面下调中国市场芯 片价格，尤其针对电源管理与信号链芯片，降幅高达 50% ，其他海外大厂随后卷入，致使模拟芯片市场竞争格局剧变，国产厂商被迫应战，市场份额与利润 空间遭受严重挤压。商务部新闻发言人表示： " 申请人提交的初步证据显示， ...

9月11日，国泰海通举办第一期"院士讲坛"。中国科学院院士、中国科学院原副院长、 中国科学院大学原校长李树深，公司党委书记、董事长朱健，公司副总裁陈忠义及来自 政府部门、研究机构、知名企业、投资机构等单位超过100位嘉宾出席会议。 朱健在致辞中表示，当前新质生产力加速形成，科技创新已成为驱动经济高质量发展 的核心引擎。国泰海通积极践行金融报国理念，系统构建具有行业特色的科技金融服 务生态，通过专业服务推动科技成果转化，为国家加快实现高水平科技自立自强贡献 力量。公司利用充沛的分析师资源，创新性设立"一所一院"，其中政策和产业研究院 致力于打造具有行业引领力的高端智库平台，发起举办"院士讲坛"就是具体实践之 一，打造顶尖思想的汇聚平台，构建产学研投用深度融合的跨界桥梁，开启"科学看未 来"的窗口，为科技创新企业提供更精准、更前瞻、更有价值的综合金融服务。 图片 滑动查看更多图片 图片 第一期"院士讲坛"由李树深院士、朱健董事长等四位代表共同启动。李树深院士就半 导体芯片与人工智能主题作主旨演讲，立足全球科技竞争格局与我国产业实际，系统 梳理当前产业特点、技术进展与面临挑战，并同与会嘉宾探讨领域最新科研成果和趋 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a mixed performance in consumption, investment, and production, with service consumption declining and durable goods showing weak performance [1] - In terms of investment, the real estate sector remains weak despite policy optimizations in major cities, with new home sales not improving significantly [1] - The export market is experiencing a rise in port capacity demand due to the upcoming Christmas stocking season, while domestic export freight rates are declining, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments [1] Group 2 - Overall production activity is showing signs of recovery, with a stable Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a majority decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to its highest level since 2025, likely linked to strong equity market performance and improved inflation data [1]

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 ulle:! 交运首席分析师 行业核心洞察 航空投资, 从油价短逻辑, 到超级周期长逻辑, 万事俱备只欠东风 价值主张 十八年专注交运,坚持专业、独立、深度研究 年度代表作 716 曲 载 《航空深度:从油价短逻辑,到超级周期长 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 观点来自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告。 报告名称：从油价短逻辑，到超级周期长逻辑；报告日 期：20241207；报告作者： 岳鑫S0880514030006；风险提示：经济波动风险，油价汇率风险，行 业政策风险，增发摊薄风险，安全事故风险等。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险 还请取消关注 请勿订阅 接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息 我们对由此给您造成的 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of potential recession, with a significant increase in the proportion of the population considering job availability as difficult [2][5] - The current unemployment rate is rising at a historically slow pace, indicating a rare transition in the labor market from supply constraints to demand constraints [3] - A fragile balance in labor supply and demand is maintained due to simultaneous reductions in labor supply from immigration policies and retirement trends, but this balance is expected to be disrupted soon [4][7] Group 2: Employment Trends - The average monthly job creation needed to maintain the current unemployment rate is estimated to be between 150,000 and 180,000, while the recent average has dropped to 120,000 [5] - The labor market is sensitive to changes in employment demand, with a risk of rapid unemployment rate increases if demand continues to decline [7] - The impact of immigration on labor supply is diminishing, and the trend of early retirements is expected to decrease as the peak retirement year of 2025 approaches [7] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - Attention is drawn to the seed and livestock sectors as significant activities in the agricultural industry during the autumn season [8] Group 4: Research and Reports - Various industry reports and discussions are scheduled, including topics on transportation, home appliances, consumer structure changes, real estate cycles, and textiles [9][11]

国泰海通证券 研究所 国泰海通非银研究系列电话会议 8月11-20日、9月1-10日 每晚19:30 直 == 非银行金融分析师 非银行金融分析师 王思明 n Andress of the start of the start of the start of the see of the see the see the series of the series of the series of the series and the see the see the see the series a 金融组长 目席分析 tin 刘秋琦 非银会融团队 会议信息系 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTH ...

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Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced an upward fluctuation in interest rates since July, with the current yield spread between long-term bonds and government bonds widening to levels seen before 2024, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a preference for absolute yields rather than duration [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - The yield spread between 30-year government bonds and 10-year government bonds has widened to 32 basis points, while the spread between 10-year policy bank bonds and government bonds is at 16 basis points, reflecting a significant change in market dynamics [1] - The bond market is likely to maintain a weak oscillating pattern, with trading strategies shifting from duration-based bets on interest rate cuts to a focus on absolute returns and coupon logic [2] - The liquidity premium for long-duration, high-liquidity bonds may shrink, necessitating higher absolute yields to attract investors [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank's monetary policy is currently more supportive of short- to medium-term bonds, with limited impact on long-term bonds, as evidenced by recent operations in the open market [3] - The central bank's actions, including a net increase of 300 billion yuan in reverse repos in September, indicate a focus on maintaining stable liquidity in the banking system [3] - The widening of yield spreads for long-term bonds suggests a gradual clearing of pricing bubbles related to duration and elasticity, with potential structural opportunities emerging in shorter-term bonds [3]

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 行业核心洞察 科技创新领头燕,IPO 有望稳步提速 价值主张 15 年专注 IPO 细分市 场,深度洞悉制度变化 年度代表作 《鉴往知来,砥砺前行 -- A 股 IPO 市场十七载 N : 11:11 716 王政之 新股首席分析师 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 推 荐 阅 读 上线了！国泰海通2025研究框架培训视频版｜洞察价值，共创未来 报告来源 报告名称：鉴往知来，砥砺前行——A股IPO市场十七载回顾和展望；报告日期：20250816；报告作 者：王政之 S0880517060002 风险提示：新股上市破发率及破发深度提升风险；新股申购中签率降低 的风险，网下投资者参与询价业务内部制度不完善带来的合规风险。 重要提醒 ...

Macro Analysis - The growth rate of social financing has declined, primarily due to weakened government bond support, with August's new social financing at 2.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, marking the first year-on-year decline since 2025 [4] - New government bond financing in August was 1.4 trillion yuan, down 251.9 billion yuan year-on-year, contrasting with an average monthly increase of nearly 700 billion yuan from January to July [4] - The growth rate of social financing has dropped to 8.8%, while the weakness in RMB loans continues [5] Credit and Monetary Policy - In August, new credit was 590 billion yuan, showing seasonal improvement compared to July but still down approximately 310 billion yuan year-on-year [5] - The performance of credit in July and August indicates that effective demand in the real economy still needs further stimulation, as reflected in the declining BCI investment expectation index [5] - The supply side shows that policies no longer emphasize the growth of credit scale but rather suggest maintaining reasonable growth of the financial total [5] Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, with the potential for new highs within the year, supported by accelerated transformation and reduced uncertainty in economic and social development [9] - The consensus on economic expectations remains cautious, which has constrained public investment willingness, keeping many blue-chip stocks at relatively low price levels [10] - The visibility of economic stabilization is increasing, indicating that the bottom position is becoming clearer, which is crucial for stock valuation [10] Industry Comparison - Emerging technology is seen as a mainline opportunity, while cyclical finance is viewed as a dark horse; the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue rising [11] - Recommendations include sectors such as internet, media, innovative pharmaceuticals, electronics, and semi-conductors, as well as traditional sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and real estate [11] Thematic Recommendations - Focus on commercial aerospace, benefiting from satellite mobile communication license issuance and technological innovation [12] - Emphasis on AI applications, with policies accelerating industry-scale development in finance, office, and gaming sectors [12] Foreign Investment Behavior - Foreign capital shows a tendency for similar trading characteristics in AH shares, with a strong positive correlation in net inflows between A-shares and H-shares [17] - Foreign investors prefer high-quality core assets in both markets, with significant holdings in the financial sector [18] - The preference for undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals is evident, as foreign investors favor companies with higher return on equity [19]