Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed economic outlook with increasing consumer sentiment, strong trends in the AI and electronic industries, while the real estate and durable goods sectors show weak demand [1]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment indicators are on the rise, with Shanghai Disneyland experiencing a high congestion index, and movie box office revenues showing strong year-on-year growth [2]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for actions to boost consumption, suggesting potential policy support for consumer demand through 2026 [1][2]. - The average retail price of passenger cars has increased by 6.4% month-on-month and 9.9% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in pricing amid reduced competition in the automotive sector [2]. Group 2: Electronic Industry - The AI infrastructure investment continues to drive demand in the electronic industry, with high-performance storage prices remaining elevated [3]. - As of December 12, the average spot price for DRAM DDR4 and DDR5 is $50.1 and $26.2 respectively, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.8% for DDR4 [3]. - Revenue growth in the electronic industry chain, particularly among storage companies, remains robust, indicating a strong market environment [3]. Group 3: Real Estate and Durable Goods - The real estate market shows continued weakness, with a 33.9% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 30 major cities [2]. - Sales of passenger vehicles have also seen a significant drop, with daily retail sales down 32% year-on-year during the first week of December [2]. - The construction sector is experiencing low demand, with steel and building material prices remaining under pressure [3]. Group 4: Resource Prices - Coal prices are experiencing a widening decline, while industrial metal prices are fluctuating at high levels due to external economic factors [4]. - The logistics sector is facing seasonal declines in passenger travel demand, with a 4.2% month-on-month drop in long-distance travel [4]. - Freight activity is also down, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volumes decreasing by 2.0% and 0.3% respectively [4].

2025年证券时报最佳分析师评选中，国泰海通 共斩 获 32 项大 奖 ， 在"最佳研究团队"、"最具影响力研究机构"、" 最佳销售服务团队 "、" 可持续发展研 究贡献机构" 四项机构大奖中均位列前五 。 "最佳分析师"奖项中，共有 19个 研究团队入围， 食品饮料、 非银行金融 团队 摘 得榜首； 批零和社会服务业、 非金属类建材 团队获第二名； 医药生物 获第三名； 家电、化工、 金属和金属新材料、 通信 获前五名。 电子 研究团队获"最具潜力分析师"。 销售类奖项中， 上海、北京、广深销售团队 均获 区域前三名。 获奖详情如下： 【 | 国泰海通址: 2025 年度 2025 年度 最佳分析师 最佳分析师 食品饮料 非银行金 第 1 第1 国家语期止 2025 年度 2025 年度 最佳分析师 最佳分析师 批零和 非金属建 社会服务 第2 第2名 2025 年度 2025 年度 最佳分析师 家电 新財富 最佳分析师 医药生物 IATK 传播与文化 IF 国泰国通址分 国泰母通址? 2025 年度 2025 年度 最佳分析师 最具潜力分析师 25 策略研究 曲子 研究团队 FS 新財富 杂志 国泰母退止 ...

数字人民币是央行发行的数字形式法定货币，从零售场景向对公、跨境领域全覆盖，逐步成为数字经济基础设施。 数字人民币定位于现金类支付凭证（ M0 ）、采取 " 中心化管理 + 双层运营 " 模式。经历研究并确立顶层设计，完成"点状突破"到"网络覆盖"的数字人民币体系。目前已在 17 省试点，启用数字人 民币国际运营中心，推出跨境数字支付、区块链服务、数字资产三大平台，可解决跨境支付痛点、服务数字金融创新；北京运营管理中心落地，负责建设央行 端数币系统、协调共建数币生态并推进业务，服务货币支付创新，还将带来场景、功能、生态层面的产业带动效应。数字人民币 APP 不断完善，多边央行数 字货币桥合作加深，数字人民币生态系统逐步形成。 政策推动 + 生态适配，数字人民币有望加速发展。 1 ） 发展数字人民币有利于人民币的国际化。 国际支付与贸易往来中，人民币结算比例低，发展数字人 民币，能够解决传统跨境支付效率慢，成本高、安全性受限等问题，进而推动人民币的国际化。 2 ） 完善的数字支付生态加速数字人民币的场景落地。 我国 数字支付生态成熟，数字支付普及化程度高，且数字人民币零手续费可减少第三方支付运营成本、提升收益，因 ...

报告导读： 行业运行并没有太多意外，运行仍然有下行压力，但数据显示出支出压力减少 的确认，预计将在未来延续这一趋势，给宏观提供有利的金融环境。 整体来看， 2026 年预计延续 2025 年的趋势，也即金融风险较小、经济压力仍然存在。 考虑到市场对房地产的关注点更多在金融风险上，因此房地产对 2026 年的影响预计也将提供有利环境，也即不会出现系统性金融风险。 行业数据回落，基数有扰动，整体行业运行仍有下行压力。 投资端，开发投资额单月同比下降 31.4% 、新开工面积单月同比 -27.7% 、销售金额单月同比 -26.1% ，相比于 10 月有涨有跌，但增速仍维持较低水平。在上一期中，我们已经提到了对基数扰动的看法，认为不倾向于用基数来解释，回到行业运行本 身，仍然显示出有下行压力。 待售面积指标下的新趋势，房企压力缓解和地产投资减少，并持续至 2026 年。 待售面积的变化，不外乎两种情况：①由于竣工交付房屋中包含部分未售的 部分，因此，统一交付会带来这部分面积的增长，由于这部分待售面积的增长是没有销售收入的，也就可以作为房企资金压力的一种体现；②部分房屋改为现 房销售，那么待售面积将作为未来销售的前置指 ...

以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 日本东丽提价，高端景气和大宗底部的再确认——碳纤维行业更新；报告日期：2025.12.16 报告作者： 鲍雁辛（分析师），登记编号：S0880513070005 花健祎（分析师），登记编号：S0880521010001 杨冬庭（分析师），登记编号：S0880522080004 报告导读： 日本东丽官网公告碳纤维涨价，进一步确认了国内碳纤维价格的底部，同时体 现了高端市场结构性景气优势。 维持"增持"评级。 日本东丽官网公告碳纤维涨价，进一步确认了国内碳纤维价格的底部，同时彰显了小丝束碳纤维代表的高端市场结构性景气复苏。推荐具 备高性能碳纤维布局、以及在通用碳纤维领域通过产能利用率提升摊薄成本的头部企业。 东丽公告涨价，应以高性能小丝束产品为主。 12 月 11 日，东丽官网公告对 TORAYCA 品牌的碳纤维和制品涨价 10%-20% ， 2026 年 1 月开始落实。 公告解释涨价原因主要是 1. 全球供需和日元疲软推高能源成本； 2. 原材料，辅材和物流成本上升； 3. 人员短缺和用工成本上升。从公告可以解读两个关键 细节：第一是东丽牌涨价说明 ...

过去一周（ 12 月 8 日 -12 月 12 日）， A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化格局，成长风格显著跑赢。 主要指数中，创业板指全周表现最佳，累计上涨 2.74% ，深证成指上涨 0.84% ，而上证指数则微跌 0.34% 。市场交投活跃度有所提升，沪深两市日均成交额达到 1.95 万亿元，较前一周放量明显。分行业看， 受到产业政策和事件催化推动，以商业航天、 CPO （共封装光学）、可控核聚变为代表的科技成长板块涨幅居前，煤炭、石油石化、房地产等传统板块表现 不佳。 可转债市场小幅上涨，估值继续修复。 中证转债指数全周累计上涨 0.20% ，转债等权指数小幅上涨 0.09% ，涨幅大于转债正股等权指数（下跌 0.94% ）。市场内部结构分化明显，高价低溢价率转债表现相对较好，双低和低价转债则有所回调，小盘和大盘转债上涨，而中盘转债则下跌。转债平价中位数下跌 1.61% 至 99.60 元，而转债价格中位数下跌 0.63% 至 130.78 元，转股溢价率中位数拉升 1.21pct 至 32.71% 。 展望 12 月下半月的转债市场，预计短期将维持震荡巩固，在临近年底时有望预热反弹。 12 月美联储降息靴子 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the national economy in November exhibits characteristics of "stable production, differentiated consumption, and pressured investment" [1] - The production side is recovering to a normal pace as the impact of holiday disruptions fades, with emerging industries becoming the main support for production and investment, although industrial growth has slightly slowed down and significant industry differentiation is evident [1] - In the consumption sector, the pattern of "weak goods, strong services" continues, with limited promotional effects during the sales season; there is a need for policy support to boost commodity retail, especially for durable goods in the bulk and real estate chains [1] Group 2 - The investment sector is under overall pressure, with infrastructure investment showing lackluster performance due to funding and project constraints, while real estate investment remains under pressure; however, there are bright spots in high-tech manufacturing investment [1] - Short-term policy efforts and marginal improvements in foreign trade provide some support, but long-term growth still requires integrated policy strengthening to consolidate endogenous growth momentum [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, which has become the primary focus of policy discussions, indicating a clear and sustained commitment to prevent fluctuations in the market [1][2] - Supply-side issues and housing security have emerged as the second key focus, with policies aimed at controlling new land supply and promoting the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, suggesting a shift towards utilizing existing stock rather than new construction [2][3] - Demand-side support is highlighted as the third key focus, with reforms in the housing provident fund system and initiatives to stimulate housing demand, although there is a noted absence of previous mentions of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations [2][3] Group 2 - The development model has been identified as the fourth key focus, with an acceleration in the construction of a new real estate development model, indicating a transition from exploration to deeper implementation of policies aimed at optimizing supply and stabilizing demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - The National Medical Security Work Conference held in December 2025 emphasizes the optimization of centralized procurement policies, the development of maternity and long-term care insurance, and the strategic purchasing role of medical insurance to support the innovative drug industry [1][2]. Group 1: Support for Commercial Health Insurance - The National Medical Security Bureau will support the integration and complementary development of commercial health insurance with basic medical insurance, encouraging the inclusion of more reasonable medical expenses outside the basic medical insurance catalog into the coverage of commercial health insurance [2]. - There will be an encouragement for commercial health insurance institutions to expand their investment in innovative drugs, promoting research and development in this area [2]. - A one-stop settlement service combining "medical insurance + commercial insurance" will be provided for eligible commercial health insurance products, aimed at improving claims efficiency [2]. Group 2: Development of Maternity and Long-term Care Insurance - The National Medical Security Bureau aims to include flexible employment personnel, migrant workers, and new employment forms in the coverage of maternity insurance [2]. - The goal is to achieve "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within the policy scope nationwide, with enhancements to prenatal examination medical expense coverage [2]. - The long-term care insurance system will be comprehensively promoted, with encouragement for commercial insurance institutions to develop commercial long-term care insurance products [2]. Group 3: Support for Pharmaceutical Industry Innovation - The National Medical Security Bureau will guide the pharmaceutical industry towards healthy competition and differentiated innovation, implementing measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs [3]. - New rounds of national centralized procurement for drugs and high-value medical consumables will be conducted, with a focus on improving the efficiency of enterprise returns [3]. - The multi-price discovery function of the Chinese drug price registration system will be leveraged to assist the Chinese pharmaceutical industry in expanding internationally [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to positively impact the prices of precious and base metals, leading to a favorable liquidity environment in the market [2]. Precious Metals - The confirmation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has catalyzed a steady increase in precious metal prices, with London spot silver prices surpassing $60 per ounce [2]. - The market is anticipated to maintain a loose liquidity environment leading up to Christmas, which is expected to support continued strength in precious metal prices [2]. Copper - Macro disturbances have increased, leading to fluctuations in copper prices. Although prices reached new highs following the Fed's actions, they faced downward pressure due to renewed concerns over AI and hawkish comments from some Fed officials [2]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. non-farm payrolls, CPI, and PCE, along with Japan's monetary policy meeting, are expected to heighten macroeconomic impacts, resulting in a primarily volatile copper price outlook [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are showing a strong upward trend due to macroeconomic support from the Fed's rate cut, despite ongoing pressure from excess supply of alumina [2]. - The aluminum processing operating rate has declined to 61.8%, influenced by high prices and environmental production restrictions [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains robust, with a slight increase in production and a significant reduction in inventory by 2,133 tons, although December's new energy vehicle sales data is expected to show weakness [3]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to tight upstream raw material supplies, while downstream demand remains cautious [3]. - Rare earth prices have decreased, particularly for medium and heavy rare earths, while tin supply faces uncertainties from geopolitical disturbances [3].