固定收益 | 动态跟踪 4 月或是供给压力缓和期 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | 继续做波段，把握利率下行机会：2025 年 3 月小品种月报 2025-04-04 二季度债市或可乐观一点：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-31 央行多投放流动性了吗？：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-25 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 徐沛翔 xup ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 关税风暴，关注国内政策对冲 ——策略周报 0407 研究结论 风险提示 17 张书铭 021-63325888*5152 zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 张志鹏 zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 段怡芊 duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 薛俊 021-63325888*6005 xuejun@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | 从政策博弈到基本面验证：——策略周报 | 2025-03-30 | | --- | --- | | 0331 | | | 情绪退潮、A 股高位回落：——策略周报 | 2025-03-24 | | 0324 | | | A 股延续强势，建议关注科技产业趋势的 | 2025-03-16 | | 反弹行情：——策略周报 0316 | | | 港股表现强势，继续关注科技股中长期行 | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and adjusts the target price to HKD 1.73 [4][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately CNY 6.97 billion for 2024, which is essentially flat year-on-year; the net loss attributable to the parent company is about CNY 451 million, an increase in loss of 3.7% year-on-year; the core net profit attributable to the parent company is approximately CNY 800 million, also flat year-on-year [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 7.126 billion, decreasing to CNY 7.010 billion in 2023, and projected to be CNY 6.970 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [6] - The operating profit showed a loss of CNY 730 million in 2022, improving to a loss of CNY 412 million in 2023, but projected to worsen again to a loss of CNY 604 million in 2024 [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of CNY 482 million in 2022, a loss of CNY 435 million in 2023, and is projected to be a loss of CNY 451 million in 2024 [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 21.9% in 2024, down from 23.8% in 2023 [6] Business Segment Performance - The property management business revenue reached CNY 6.38 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, accounting for 91.5% of total revenue; community service revenue was CNY 440 million, down 6.5% year-on-year; non-owner value-added services continued to shrink, with revenue decreasing by 61.0% to CNY 147 million [11] - The company’s managed area remained stable at 291 million square meters by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [11] - The company focused on core cities, with the signing amount in core cities accounting for approximately 98% of total contracts in 2024 [11] Adjustments and Provisions - The company made a provision for bad debts of CNY 1.087 billion in 2024, with a significant portion (CNY 763 million) related to receivables from related parties, which severely impacted profits [11] - After excluding the effects of provisions and amortization, the core net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was CNY 800 million, remaining flat year-on-year [11]

特宝生物 688278.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月03日） | 78.35 元 | | 目标价格 | 87.04 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 88.38/46.3 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 40,680/40,680 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 31,873 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 医药生物 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -2.82 | -2.82 | 6.58 | 23.93 | | 相对表现% | -1.02 | -2.13 | 4.29 | 15.7 | | 沪深 300% | -1.8 | -0.69 | 2.29 | 8.23 | | 伍云飞 | wuyunfei1@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524020001 ...

固定收益 | 专题报告 2025Q1 信用债市场回顾与展望 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预期；数据统计可能存在遗误。 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 系人 === | | --- | 徐沛翔 xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn 2 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 一季度信用债市场回顾：（1）发行融资：虽受债市波动影响，取消或推迟发行规模 环比提升，但最终总发行量环比基本持平，叠加到期量环比小幅下降，全季净融资 额环比增加 17%。城投债方面，一季度城投债累计发行 1.43 万亿元，环比下降 2%，与此同时到期量环比下降 3%至 1.34 万亿元，最终实现累计净融入 925 亿元， 再次创下同期净融资额新低。产业债方面，一季度产业债合计发行 1.77 万亿元，同 比下降 6%、环比增长 1 ...

Group 1: Economic Environment and Policy Changes - The March PMI showed a steady upward trend, alleviating previous concerns about small businesses and construction resumption post-holiday[4] - The focus of consumption policies has shifted towards pre-consumption factors such as income, credit, and social security, marking a new phase in consumption policy[6] - The introduction of birth support policies is part of a broader "talent competition," with various measures to attract graduates and support families[7] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Trends - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year, up from 3.7% at the end of last year[18] - Real estate investment saw a narrowing of negative growth to -9.8%, improving from -10.6% previously[18] - The sales of commercial housing in Hubei Tianmen increased by 6.1% year-on-year, indicating a potential link to birth policies that encourage home purchases[9] Group 3: Credit and Financing Developments - Personal consumption loan growth has slowed significantly, dropping to 1.4% in January-February from over 15% in 2018-2019[13] - New policies aim to support personal credit recovery, allowing banks to extend loan repayment terms for borrowers facing difficulties[11] - The issuance of local government bonds increased significantly, with a total of 16,967 billion yuan in new government bonds issued in February, up 10,956 billion yuan year-on-year[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][18]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with significant long-term growth potential driven by its AI tool, KuaLing [1][5]. - The report highlights a stable user base with daily active users (DAU) exceeding 400 million, and a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [5]. - Advertising revenue grew by 13.3% year-on-year, reaching 20.6 billion CNY, although slightly below market expectations [5]. - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 14.4% year-on-year to 462.1 billion CNY, with a notable rise in active buyers [5]. - Live streaming revenue showed a smaller decline than expected, down 2.0% year-on-year, indicating improved content quality and user engagement [5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.7 billion CNY, aligning with expectations, and the company anticipates a net profit of 43 billion CNY in Q1 2025 [5][7]. Summary by Sections User Metrics - DAU remained above 400 million, with MAU increasing by 5.0% to 736 million [5]. - Average daily usage time per user rose by 0.9% to 125.6 minutes [5]. Advertising Performance - Q4 2024 advertising revenue reached 20.6 billion CNY, accounting for 58.3% of total revenue [5]. - The external circulation advertising segment grew significantly, with short dramas and other content types driving growth [5]. E-commerce Insights - E-commerce GMV for Q4 2024 was 462.1 billion CNY, with a 14.4% year-on-year increase [5]. - The number of active buyers rose by 10% year-on-year, reaching 143 million [5]. Live Streaming Developments - Live streaming revenue decreased by 2.0% year-on-year to 9.8 billion CNY, better than market expectations [5]. - The number of signed-up agencies and hosts increased significantly, indicating a healthier ecosystem [5]. Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.7 billion CNY, with a net profit margin of 13.3% [5][7]. - The company expects an adjusted net profit of 194 billion CNY for the full year of 2025 [7]. KuaLing AI Tool - KuaLing's commercial potential is viewed positively, with expectations for significant revenue growth in the medium to long term [6][8]. - The tool has already generated over 100 million CNY in revenue since its monetization began [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of recent tariff actions and a significant drop in international oil prices due to weak supply and demand expectations. It emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong fundamentals that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. Additionally, it recommends paying attention to domestic market opportunities, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming season, and the potential for domestic substitution in new materials due to tariff pressures [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report notes that as of April 4, Brent oil prices fell by 10.9% to $65.58 per barrel, influenced by tariff actions and OPEC+ production plans exceeding expectations, leading to a significant decline in oil supply forecasts [13] - It suggests focusing on leading companies with strong alpha, recommending investments in companies like Wanhua Chemical, Huamao Technology, Runfeng Co., Guoguang Co., and Hualu Hengsheng, all of which are expected to benefit from recent market dynamics [12][14] 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of March 28, U.S. crude oil commercial inventories stood at 439.8 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 6.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 300,000 barrels [13] - The report monitors 188 chemical products, noting that the top three price increases were for acrylic acid (up 8.8%), synthetic ammonia (up 5.0%), and DMF (up 4.7%). The largest decreases were for tetrachlorethylene (down 7.1%), tryptophan (down 5.8%), and succinic anhydride (down 5.8%) [14][15] 3. Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI showing recent profit improvement with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [12] - Huamao Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, recovering from previous macro demand pressures [12] - Runfeng Co.: A rare stock with global formulation registration and sales channels [12] - Guoguang Co.: A leader in differentiated formulations in the plant growth regulator sector [12] - Hualu Hengsheng: Core product prices recovering alongside falling coal prices, leading to improved margins [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][18]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with significant long-term growth potential driven by its AI capabilities [1][5]. - Daily Active Users (DAU) remained above 400 million, with a year-over-year increase of 4.8%, while Monthly Active Users (MAU) grew by 5.0% to 736 million [5]. - Advertising revenue in Q4 2024 increased by 13.3% year-over-year to 20.6 billion CNY, slightly below market expectations [5]. - E-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) rose by 14.4% year-over-year to 462.1 billion CNY, with a notable increase in active buyers [5]. - Live streaming revenue decreased by 2.0% year-over-year to 9.8 billion CNY, but the decline was less than expected due to improved content quality [5]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 reached 4.7 billion CNY, aligning with expectations, and the company anticipates a full-year adjusted net profit of 19.4 billion CNY for 2025 [5][7]. Summary by Sections User Engagement - DAU maintained over 400 million, with MAU reaching 736 million, indicating strong user retention and engagement [5]. - Average daily usage time per user increased by 0.9% year-over-year to 125.6 minutes [5]. Advertising Performance - Q4 2024 advertising revenue was 20.6 billion CNY, accounting for 58.3% of total revenue, with external circulation growth in the high teens [5]. - The company expects a slowdown in advertising revenue growth in Q1 2025, projecting a year-over-year increase of 7.0% [5]. E-commerce Growth - E-commerce GMV reached 462.1 billion CNY, with a 14.4% year-over-year increase, and the number of active buyers grew by 10% [5]. - The proportion of general merchandise in e-commerce reached 30%, indicating a shift towards diversified product offerings [5]. Live Streaming Insights - Live streaming revenue saw a smaller decline than anticipated, with a year-over-year decrease of 2.0% to 9.8 billion CNY [5]. - The number of signed-up agencies and hosts increased significantly, suggesting a strengthening of the live streaming ecosystem [5]. Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.7 billion CNY, with a full-year projection of 19.4 billion CNY for 2025 [5][7]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 54.0%, reflecting operational efficiency [5]. Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential of the company's AI tool, KuaLing, which is expected to enhance advertising and e-commerce capabilities [6][8]. - Long-term revenue projections for KuaLing suggest a market potential of 20-25 billion USD, with significant contributions from both B2B and C2C segments [6][9].

核心观点 原油相关信息： ⚫ 原油及相关库存：2025 年 3 月 28 日美国原油商业库存 4.398 亿桶，周增加 620 万 桶；汽油库存 2.376 亿桶，周减少 160 万桶；馏分油库存 1.146 亿桶，周增加 30 万 桶；丙烷库存 0.44141 亿桶，周增加 98.3 万桶。美国原油产量及钻机数：2025 年 3 月 28 日美国原油产量为 1358.0 万桶/天，周度增加 0.6 万桶/天，较一年前增加 48 万 桶/天。2025 年 4 月 4 日美国钻机数 590 台，周度减少 2 台，年减少 30 台；加拿大 钻机数 153 台，周减少 10 台，年度增加 17 台。其中美国采油钻机 489 台，周度增 加 5 台，年度减少 19 台。 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 关注内需及国产替代新材料机会 价格变化： 价差变化： 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 ⚫ 项目进展不及预期；需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 07 日 看好（维持） | 倪吉 | 021-63325888*7504 | | ...