Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.38 CNY based on a PE valuation method, reflecting a 23x earnings multiple for 2025 [3][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.276 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.793 billion CNY, up 12.0% year-on-year [12]. - The company has shown resilience with stable growth in its core segments, particularly in laboratory services, which generated 7.047 billion CNY in revenue, a 5.8% increase [12]. - New order signings have rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 20%, indicating strong future revenue potential [12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 13.809 billion CNY in 2025, 15.721 billion CNY in 2026, and 17.988 billion CNY in 2027, with respective growth rates of 12.5%, 13.8%, and 14.4% [9]. - The company's net profit is expected to reach 1.893 billion CNY in 2025, 2.287 billion CNY in 2026, and 2.719 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 5.6%, 20.8%, and 18.8% respectively [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is 1.06 CNY for 2025, 1.29 CNY for 2026, and 1.53 CNY for 2027 [9]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company operates in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, facing increasing competition but also benefiting from a recovering investment environment in the sector [12]. - The integrated platform model of the company is expected to enhance its ability to meet global pharmaceutical innovation demands, supporting long-term growth [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 1853.36 CNY per share [3][5]. Core Views - The company's performance aligns with expectations, and there is optimism regarding its medium to long-term development [2]. - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026, predicting earnings per share of 73.20 CNY, 81.42 CNY, and 91.00 CNY for 2025-2027 [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 147,694 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.0%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 170,899 million CNY, 185,322 million CNY, 205,199 million CNY, and 225,778 million CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 15.7%, 8.4%, 10.7%, and 10.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 74,734 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2%. The projected net profits for the following years are 86,228 million CNY, 91,960 million CNY, 102,276 million CNY, and 114,314 million CNY, with growth rates of 15.4%, 6.6%, 11.2%, and 11.8% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 91.9%, remaining stable over the forecast period [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The company expects stable pricing for its flagship products while anticipating growth from non-standard and series products. The revenue from Moutai liquor is projected at 1,459.28 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, while series liquor revenue is expected to reach 246.84 million CNY, growing by 19.7% [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on dual drivers of product sales through Moutai liquor and series liquor, alongside channel collaboration between wholesale and direct sales, which is expected to support stable performance amid a challenging consumption environment [8].

创新发力，国际化快速推进 ——恒瑞医药 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预计 2025-26 年 EPS 为 1.06/1.17 元（原预测值分别为 1.03/1.21 元），新增预 测 2027 年 EPS 为 1.42 元。根据 PE 估值法及可比公司估值水平，给予公司 2025 年 53 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 56.18 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 创新药研发不及预期的风险，创新药销售不及预期的风险，仿制药进入集采的风 险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 22,820 | 27,985 | 31,684 | 35,553 | 40,900 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.3% | 22.6% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 15.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,910 | 7,491 | 7,808 | 8,643 | 10,425 | | 同比增长 (%) | 19.4% ...

固定收益 | 专题报告 转债市场 25 年一季度回顾及展望 研究结论 风险提示 可转债风险暴露超预期；可转债强赎风险；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | 继续做波段，把握利率下行机会：2025 年 3 月小品种月报 2025-04-04 二季度债市或可乐观一点：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-31 央行多投放流动性了吗？：固定收益市场 2025-03-25 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 周观察 ⚫ 一季度权益市场，在政策和产业热点带动下，以科技成长为代表的中小盘显著占 优，而传统蓝筹板块则略显乏力。中小盘行情使得转债在一季度同样量价齐升，但 因估值偏高，表现相对较弱，除科技成长板块行情带动外， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that major US consumer companies are cautious about future fiscal year expectations, primarily due to tariff pressures and consumer downgrading trends in the US market. However, companies like Walmart and Lululemon express a more optimistic outlook for the Chinese market [3][23] - Recommendations include buying leading sportswear brand Anta Sports (02020), and considering Li Ning (02331), Xtep International (01368), and Tabo (06110) for buying or holding. Additionally, long-term prospects are favorable for resilient leading manufacturers such as Shenzhou International (02313), Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003), and Huali Group (300979) [3][23] Summary by Sections US Consumer Giants Performance - Walmart's FY26 revenue growth guidance is 3-4%, with a same-store sales increase of 23.1% in FY25Q4, driven by strong e-commerce and new store openings [10][13] - Target expects FY25 revenue growth of about 1%, with same-store sales remaining flat, facing pressure from tariffs and operational costs [14][15] - Dollar General anticipates FY25 revenue growth of 3.4-4.4%, with core consumers facing economic challenges and a notable trend of consumer downgrading [17][18] - Nike projects a mid-double-digit revenue decline for FY25Q4, with significant inventory issues and a 15% revenue drop in the Greater China region [19][20] - Lululemon expects FY25 revenue growth of 5-7%, with a strong growth forecast of 25-30% in the Greater China region [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US consumer giants due to tariff pressures and consumer behavior changes, while highlighting positive growth prospects in China for certain brands [3][23]

——AI 周度跟踪 2025 年第 4 期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 看好 AI 新周期带动算力-算法-应用生态三端依次持续推进，我们建议增加港股互联 网板块配置仓位，核心推荐处于产业链前端，云消费弹性明显+算法具备优势的阿 里巴巴-W(09988，买入)，多模态视频生成模型技术全球领先的快手-W(01024，买 入)，以及卡位最佳社交场景，具备数据+应用生态优势的腾讯控股(00700，买 入)。 风险提示 传媒行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 快手加速 AI 布局，关注国内大模型发布动 态 行业发展及 AI 应用落地不及预期，假设条件变化影响测算结果，宏观经济风险，海外政 策风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 项雯倩 | 021-63325888*6128 | | --- | --- | | | xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 | | 李雨琪 | 021-63325888-3023 | | | liyuqi@orients ...

重大资产购买已实施完成，期待协同效应 逐步释放 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 适当调整毛利率与费用率假设，我们预测 2024-2026 年公司归母净利润分别为 1.89/2.06/2.18 亿元（此前预测 2024-2025 年归母净利润 2.38/2.76 亿元），对应 EPS 为 0.45/0.49/0.52 元。我们采取 DCF 绝对估值法对公司进行估值，给予公司 DCF 目标估值 9.80 元，维持"增持"评级 风险提示 ⚫ 收入结构对大客户依赖度较高；无菌纸基包装行业竞争加剧；巴氏奶消费占比提升 带来对上游包装需求的结构性变动；原材料价格上涨。 新巨丰 301296.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年04月07日） | 8.21 元 | | 目标价格 | 9.80 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 12/6.51 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 42,000/27,168 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 3,448 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 造纸轻工 | | 报告发布日期 | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 9.80 CNY, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of 8.21 CNY [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company has completed a significant asset acquisition, which is expected to gradually release synergies and enhance its competitive position in the global liquid milk industry [8]. - The liquid milk industry is experiencing continuous expansion, with a stable cost environment for raw materials, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the company [8]. - Adjustments to gross margin and expense assumptions lead to revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected profits of 189 million CNY, 206 million CNY, and 218 million CNY respectively [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,737 million CNY in 2023 to 2,079 million CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.9% [6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.7% in 2023 to 24.6% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6]. - The net profit margin is forecasted to stabilize around 10.5% from 2024 onwards, reflecting consistent profitability [6]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is positioned as the largest domestic manufacturer of aseptic paper-based packaging, poised to benefit from the trend of domestic substitution in the industry [9]. - The DCF valuation method applied suggests a target price of 9.80 CNY, indicating a favorable investment opportunity based on projected cash flows [10].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 4 月或是供给压力缓和期 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | 继续做波段，把握利率下行机会：2025 年 3 月小品种月报 2025-04-04 二季度债市或可乐观一点：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-31 央行多投放流动性了吗？：固定收益市场 周观察 2025-03-25 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 徐沛翔 xup ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 关税风暴，关注国内政策对冲 ——策略周报 0407 研究结论 风险提示 17 张书铭 021-63325888*5152 zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 张志鹏 zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 段怡芊 duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 薛俊 021-63325888*6005 xuejun@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | 从政策博弈到基本面验证：——策略周报 | 2025-03-30 | | --- | --- | | 0331 | | | 情绪退潮、A 股高位回落：——策略周报 | 2025-03-24 | | 0324 | | | A 股延续强势，建议关注科技产业趋势的 | 2025-03-16 | | 反弹行情：——策略周报 0316 | | | 港股表现强势，继续关注科技股中长期行 | 202 ...