| 银行：超配（维持） | | --- | | 证券：标配（维持） | 2025 年 6 月 13 日 分析师：吴晓彤 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340524070001 电话：0769-22119302 邮箱： wuxiaotong@dgzq.com.cn 金融指数走势 金融行业双周报（2025/5/30-2025/6/12） 保险：超配（维持） 银行板块持续活跃，年内南银转债等多只银行可转债触发强赎 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投资要点： ◼ 证券：今年以来，证券板块整体呈现震荡调整态势，表现弱于 大盘，目前板块PB为1.40，估值处于近5年45.96%分位点。短期来看，目 前中美谈判处于真空期，政策催化不足，市场主线尚未明晰，整个大盘 缺少向上突破的驱动力。展望下半年，从外围扰动看，若后续美国关税 政策进一步缓和，有望提振全球风险偏好，为券商自营业务创造更稳定 的外部环境；政策层面，资本市场改革持续深化。政府工作报告明确提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by artificial intelligence and domestic self-sufficiency initiatives [42][43]. Core Insights - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach USD 700.9 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, primarily fueled by demand in AI, cloud infrastructure, and advanced consumer electronics [16]. - The semiconductor industry has faced significant external disturbances in 2025, but the first quarter saw a recovery in performance due to AI advancements and government subsidies boosting consumer demand [42]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment and materials, noting that while progress has been made, there are still areas with low localization rates that present investment opportunities [42]. Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry index has seen a decline of 1.43% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.30 percentage points [12]. - Various sub-sectors within the semiconductor industry have experienced different performance levels, with digital chip design showing a slight increase of 0.14%, while semiconductor equipment saw a decline of 4.21% [14][15]. - The report indicates that the AI smartphone penetration rate is expected to reach 34% by 2025, driven by advancements in chip capabilities and the introduction of new models [18]. Company Announcements and Dynamics - Huawei has launched the Pura80 series smartphones, starting at CNY 6,499, which are equipped with advanced technology [23]. - Roadway Optoelectronics reported that its production is nearing full capacity in the second quarter, with plans to further invest in 14nm semiconductor mask development [30]. - The report mentions that the first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in integrated circuit exports from China, amounting to CNY 526.4 billion, a year-on-year growth of 18.9% [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in semiconductor equipment and materials, highlighting specific firms such as North Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and Huahai Qingke as potential investment targets [43][45]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the domestic substitution process in semiconductor components, particularly in high-value sectors like industrial and automotive applications [42].

汽车行业 超配（上调） 汽车行业双周报（2025/05/30-2025/06/12） 行 业 车企积极响应《保障中小企业款项支付条例》 2025 年 6 月 13 日 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 分析师：刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 申万汽车行业指数涨跌幅：截至2025年6月12日，申万汽车板块近两周 下跌0.61%，跑输沪深300指数1.47个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第 26名；申万汽车板块从6月初至今上涨1.33%，跑输沪深300指数0.02个 百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第19名；申万汽车板块从2025年初至今 上涨10.01%，跑赢沪深300指数11.10个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名 第6名。 周 报 行 业 研 究 研究助理：吴镇杰 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340124020014 电话：0769- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The tension in the Middle East has driven up oil prices, prompting attention to segments with favorable supply-demand dynamics [1][30] - The basic chemical industry index rose by 2.57% in the last two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points, ranking 10th among 30 sectors [3][10] - The report highlights that the PPI in China continued to decline year-on-year in May, influenced by international factors, while domestic energy and raw material prices also saw a temporary decrease [30] - Despite low profitability in the industry, the willingness of companies to expand production is expected to decrease, leading to a more rational supply in the industry [30] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of June 12, 2025, the basic chemical industry has increased by 6.06% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.14 percentage points [10] - The top five products with the highest price increases recently include: - Crude Benzene (+8.38%) - Pure Benzene (+7.34%) - Toluene (+7.02%) - Styrene (+6.87%) - Adipic Acid (+6.63%) [19][20] Chemical Product Price Situation - The report notes significant price fluctuations in key chemical products, with the largest declines seen in: - Methyl Chloride (-13.16%) - TDI (-7.00%) - Fatty Alcohols (-6.98%) - Trichloromethane (-6.42%) - Fumed Silica (-5.13%) [19][20] Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing reduction of quotas for second-generation refrigerants and the continued freeze on third-generation refrigerants, maintaining supply constraints [30] - The demand for refrigerants is expected to grow due to strong production data for air conditioners and new energy vehicles, supported by government initiatives [30] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379) and Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160) for potential investment opportunities in the refrigerant sector [30] Company Announcements - The report includes various company announcements, such as BASF's new HMD facility in France and the successful launch of a new nylon project by China Pingmei Shenma Group [28][32]

Group 1 - The food and beverage industry outperformed the CSI 300 index from January to May 2025, with a decline of 1.52%, surpassing the index by approximately 0.89 percentage points [6][15][16] - The industry valuation has decreased, with a current PE (TTM) of about 21 times, below the five-year average of 34 times [20][24] - Positive consumer policy signals have been established, with significant government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand [24][27] Group 2 - The liquor sector is experiencing weak demand and internal differentiation, with a notable decline in sales during the Dragon Boat Festival [28] - Liquor companies are controlling supply to maintain prices, with several major brands implementing stock control measures [29][31] - Companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are engaging in share buybacks to boost market confidence [34][36] Group 3 - The beer sector is showing stable performance with expectations for marginal improvement in 2025, driven by a recovery in demand [4][14] - The condiment sector is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in the restaurant industry, leading to increased demand for condiments [5][18] - The dairy sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics due to favorable fertility policies [22][24] Group 4 - The snack sector is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on multi-channel penetration to enhance brand influence [25][27] - The overall performance of the snack sector is mixed, with some brands outperforming others [27][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 5.06% from May 30, 2025, to June 12, 2025, exceeding the CSI 300 index by approximately 4.19 percentage points [10][24]. - Most sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with other biological products and raw materials leading with increases of 6.57% and 4.92%, respectively [11][24]. - Approximately 83% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with notable performers such as Yiming Pharmaceutical rising by 94.83% [12][15]. - The overall industry valuation has increased, with the SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry index's PE (TTM) at approximately 50.45 times, which is relatively low compared to historical levels [16][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 5.06% from May 30, 2025, to June 12, 2025 [10]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with significant gains in other biological products and raw materials [11]. - About 83% of stocks in the industry posted positive returns, with Yiming Pharmaceutical showing the highest increase [12][15]. 2. Industry News - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced that Hunan Province completed its annual medical insurance fund settlement ahead of schedule, distributing 9.22 billion yuan to 31,000 medical institutions [22]. - The report highlights the ongoing positive developments in the innovative drug sector, including a significant collaboration between Sanofi and Pfizer worth 6 billion USD [26]. 3. Company Announcements - Chengdu Kanghong Pharmaceutical Group's subsidiary received approval for a clinical trial of a new drug, which is expected to enhance its market competitiveness [23]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report suggests continued focus on investment opportunities within the innovative drug supply chain and related sectors, including medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine [26].

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations with mixed performance across the three major indices, where the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3402.66, up by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% to 10234.33 [1][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.27 trillion, an increase of 163 billion compared to the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Nonferrous Metals (up 1.40%), Media (up 1.33%), and Beauty Care (up 1.31%), while the underperforming sectors were Household Appliances (down 1.77%), Coal (down 1.14%), and Food & Beverage (down 1.13%) [2] - Concept indices showed strong performance in Hair Medical (up 2.02%), IP Economy (up 1.81%), and Quantum Technology (up 1.72%), while the weakest performers included the China-South Korea Free Trade Zone (down 1.52%) and Pork (down 1.11%) [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a basic pattern of fluctuating upward movement, with a focus on sectors such as technology self-sufficiency and consumption upgrades, as well as large financials and restructuring concepts favored by state-owned enterprises [5] - Key upcoming events, including the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19, are anticipated to provide support for the current structural market [5] Policy and Economic Indicators - The National Development and Reform Commission supports eligible Hong Kong-listed companies to issue depositary receipts on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which may enhance market liquidity [4] - The U.S. inflation data for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.8%, slightly below forecasts, indicating potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [4]

锂电池产业链 超配（维持） 5 月磷酸铁锂电池装车量同比保持快速增长 锂电池产业链跟踪点评 2025 年 6 月 12 日 分析师：黄秀瑜（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340512090001） 电话：0769-22119455 邮箱：hxy3@dgzq.com.cn 事 件 点 评 行 业 事件： 2025 年 5 月新能源汽车产销量及动力电池装车量数据公布。 点评： 5月新能源汽车产销同比保持快速增长，环比小幅增长。根据中汽协数据，2025年5月新能源汽车产销 分别完成127万辆和130.7万辆，同比分别增长35%和36.9%，环比分别增长1.52%和6.61%。其中，纯电 动销量83.4万辆，同比增长43.1%，环比增长1.46%；插电式混动销量47.3万辆，同比增长27.3%，环 比增长17.37%。1-5月新能源汽车产销分别完成569.9万辆和560.8万辆，同比分别增长45.2%和44%。 其中，纯电动销量355.6万辆，同比增长47.7%；插电式混动销量205.1万辆，同比增长38%。5月新能 源汽车渗透率48.7%，环比上升1.4pct；1-5月渗透率44%。5月新能源汽车出口21.2万辆，同比 ...

基 金 研 究 （可公开）变中有常，守常而应变 ——公募基金 2025 年中期投资策略 2025 年 06 月 12 日 投资要点 分析师：李荣 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521010001 F4520000001431 电话：0769-26628039 邮箱：lirong@dgzq.com.cn 基 金 专 题 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 1.（可公开）基金研究专题：基于市 20250306 —20250410 历史新高——20250506 上半年市场回顾:全球主要权益资产震荡上行，在去美元化、地缘政治博 弈下黄金资产表现优异，原油资产下跌，港股市场超额收益显著。国内A 股市场震荡分化，走出典型的"N形"形态。基金市场方面，主要基金指 数均录得正收益，主动权益基金跑出超额，各类型ETF基金均呈现资金净 流入。 基金从业资格证书编号： 下半年大类资产配置观点：权益资产方面，A股市场估值合理，政策托底， 随着市场对关税扰动效应逐渐脱敏，市场交易逐渐回归经济基本面，优 质的权益资产将迎 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 3400 points, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains [1][4] - The market showed a rebound with all three major indices closing in the green, and the ChiNext Index leading the rise [4][6] Market Performance - The closing points and percentage changes for major indices are as follows: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3402.32, up 0.52% [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 10246.02, up 0.83% [2] - CSI 300: 3894.63, up 0.75% [2] - ChiNext Index: 2061.87, up 1.21% [2] - STAR 50: 980.93, down 0.20% [2] - Beijing Stock Exchange 50: 1427.91, unchanged [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include: - Non-ferrous metals: up 2.21% [3] - Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery: up 2.02% [3] - Non-bank financials: up 1.90% [3] - Automotive: up 1.70% [3] - Media: up 1.60% [3] - The underperforming sectors include: - Pharmaceutical and biological: down 0.41% [3] - Communication: down 0.28% [3] - Beauty and personal care: down 0.10% [3] - Public utilities: up 0.09% [3] - Food and beverage: up 0.21% [3] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices include: - Rare earth permanent magnet: up 4.90% [3] - E-sports: up 2.72% [3] - Cobalt: up 2.36% [3] - Integrated die-casting: up 2.26% [3] - Online gaming: up 2.22% [3] - The lagging concept indices include: - China-South Korea Free Trade Zone: down 1.35% [3] - CRO concept: down 0.90% [3] - Alzheimer's concept: down 0.90% [3] - Recombinant protein: down 0.82% [3] - Controlled nuclear fusion: down 0.80% [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a slight positive growth in exports in June and July, despite a slowdown in growth and a widening decline in exports to the U.S. [6] - The report anticipates that the trade negotiations between China and the U.S. will ease trade tensions, supporting overseas demand [6] - The focus will be on the implementation of existing economic stabilization policies and potential new policies following the political bureau meeting in July [6] - Investment strategies should consider sectors such as technology growth, new consumption, high-end manufacturing, and high-dividend defensive assets [6]