Group 1: Service Consumption Comparison - China's service consumption ratio is not low compared to countries with a GDP below $25,000, averaging 53.8% in 2019, while countries below this threshold average 46.4%[28] - In contrast, China's service consumption ratio is lower than the average of 56.3% for countries with a GDP above $25,000[28] - Overall, China's consumption rate is 39.3%, which is significantly lower than the average of 55.2% for the 43 countries analyzed[5] Group 2: Consumption Structure Insights - China's household consumption rate is composed of 21.1% service consumption and 18.2% goods consumption, both lower than the averages of 28.4% and 26.8% respectively for the 43 countries[5] - The largest discrepancy in consumption structure is in "other goods and services," where China stands at 2.4% compared to the 43-country average of 10.6%[34] - Housing services in China account for 23.4% of total consumption, with self-owned housing rental equivalence at 15.1%, higher than the 12.5% average of the 43 countries[44] Group 3: Education and Healthcare Spending - Education spending in China is significantly higher at 8.4% compared to the 43-country average of 1.4%, indicating a strong emphasis on education[50] - Healthcare spending in China is also elevated at 6.4%, compared to the average of 2.7% for the 43 countries, ranking second globally[63] - Private healthcare expenditure in China is 6.0%, surpassing the 4.6% average of the 43 countries[63] Group 4: Transportation and Entertainment Expenditure - Transportation costs in China are lower, with transportation fees at 1.7% compared to the 2.6% average of the 43 countries, attributed to lower public transport prices[74] - Entertainment consumption is notably low in China, with cultural and entertainment services at only 0.6%, compared to the 3.4% average of the 43 countries[80] - Despite low entertainment spending, tourism consumption in China is relatively high at 1.2%, slightly above the 1.1% average of the 43 countries[80]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Add" (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of photoinitiators is becoming concentrated, and demand in emerging fields is booming, leading to a recovery in industry prosperity [1] - Photoinitiators are essential raw materials for light-curing materials, accounting for 3%-5% of the total usage in these materials, but their cost constitutes 10%-15% of the overall cost of light-curing products [2] - The demand for photoinitiators is expected to grow due to the expansion of applications in both traditional and emerging fields, such as automotive parts, electronics, PCB manufacturing, and 3D printing [2] Summary by Sections Basic Information - Photoinitiators are crucial for UV coatings, inks, and adhesives, enabling the curing process through exposure to specific wavelengths of light [2] - Light-curing materials are environmentally friendly and energy-efficient alternatives to traditional solvent-based products, contributing to the reduction of VOC emissions [2] Industry Trends - The main domestic manufacturers of photoinitiators have faced production halts, which may lead to collaborative development within the industry [5] - The competitive landscape shows that China is a major producer of photoinitiators, with significant production capacities from companies like Jiu Ri New Materials and Qiangli New Materials [5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side challenges include production stoppages due to safety and environmental issues at key manufacturers, which may hinder recovery efforts [5] - The demand for photoinitiators is driven by the growth of light-curing applications in new sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [5] Related Companies - Key companies in the industry include Jiu Ri New Materials, Qiangli New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and Gurin Technology [6]

Consumption Rate Comparison - China's overall consumption rate is low at 39.3%, compared to the average of 55.2% for 43 countries, with service consumption at 21.1% and goods consumption at 18.2%[11] - China's goods consumption rate is 8.6 percentage points lower than the average of 26.8% for 43 countries, and service consumption is 7.3 percentage points lower than the average of 28.4%[11] Service Consumption Structure - China's service consumption proportion is 53.8%, which is higher than the average of 46.4% for countries with a GDP per capita below $25,000, but lower than the average of 56.3% for those above $25,000[17] - The largest difference in consumption structure is in "other goods and services," where China is at 2.4% compared to 10.6% for 43 countries, mainly due to differences in personal care and financial service expenditures[25] Housing and Education Expenditures - Self-owned housing rental equivalence in China is 15.1%, higher than the 12.5% average for 43 countries, while actual rental expenditure is only 1.1%, significantly lower than the 3.7% average[29] - Education expenditure in China is 8.4%, far exceeding the 1.4% average for 43 countries, indicating a strong emphasis on education[39] Healthcare and Transportation - Healthcare expenditure in China is 6.4%, compared to 2.7% for 43 countries, ranking second globally, with total healthcare expenditure at 13.7%, lower than the 16.2% average[47] - Transportation expenditure is notably lower in China, with transportation costs at 1.7% compared to 2.6% for 43 countries, attributed to lower transportation prices[55] Entertainment and Dining - Cultural and entertainment services in China account for only 0.6%, significantly lower than the 3.4% average for 43 countries, while dining services are comparable at 6.4% versus 6.6%[61]

[Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观量化经济指数周报 20250630：内需延续结构分化，外需保持总量平 稳 证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-07-04 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 核心观点：本周以伊冲突与贸易谈判局势缓和令美股大涨，美联储理事 Waller 与 Bowman 的鸽派发言与经济数据走弱令美债利率大幅走低，10 年期美债利率下至 4.277%，美元指数下行至 97.4；黄金与原油价格在避 险情绪大幅降温的情况下分别下跌 2.79%和 12.56%。在美国部分批发商 "抢进口"行为告一段落后，本月分析师大幅上修 Q2 美国 GDP 增速预 期，同时维持美联储 Q3 首次降息，全年降息 2 次的预期不变。向前看， 特朗普《大美丽法案》本周已于参议院进入最终审议阶段，在于 8 月中 下旬来临的 X Date 前提高债务上限的需要或令法案最终通过的 "Deadline"为 7 月 31 日。 风险提示：特朗普政策超预期；美联储降息 幅度过大引发通胀反弹甚至失控；美联储维持高利率水平时间过长，引发 金融系统流动性危机。 货币政策对"资金空转"的关注度依然较高， ...

2025 年 07 月 04 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工专题报告 金工专题报告 20250704 基于宏观风险因子的大类资产轮动模型绩 效月报 20250630 ◼ 风险提示：模型所有统计结果均基于历史数据，未来市场可能发生重大 变化；单一模型可能存在风险，实际应用需结合资金管理、风险控制等 方法；模型测算可能存在相对误差，不构成实际投资建议。 研究助理 刘静恒 执业证书：S0600123070085 liujingheng@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《 新 价 量 相 关 性 因 子 绩 效 月 报 20250630》 2025-07-01 《估值异常因子绩效月报 20250630》 2025-07-01 东吴证券研究所 1 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 基于宏观风险因子的大类资产轮动模型绩效：2011 年 1 月至 2023 年 12 月，模型年化收益率 9.93%，年化波动率 6.83%。夏普比率 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·计算机设备 道通科技（688208） 越南关税落地，出海+具身智能注入增长新动 能 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,251 | 3,932 | 4,899 | 6,012 | 7,556 | | 同比（%） | 43.50 | 20.95 | 24.57 | 22.73 | 25.68 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 179.23 | 640.93 | 796.86 | 982.25 | 1,183.18 | | 同比（%） | 75.66 | 257.59 | 24.33 | 23.27 | 20.46 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.27 | 0.96 | 1.19 | 1.47 | 1.77 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 119.69 | 33.47 | 26.92 | 21.84 | 18.13 | [关键词： Table_Tag#新产 ...

证券研究报告 2025年7月大类资产配置展望 顺势而为，蓄势待变 证券分析师 ：孙婷 执业证书编号：S0600524120001 联系邮箱：sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 ：唐遥衎 执业证书编号：S0600524120016 联系邮箱：tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 2025年7月3日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2025年7月各类资产配置展望 A股和港股——顺势而为，蓄势待变： 美股和黄金——对冲效应或仍将演绎： 国债和美债——稳中有进，震荡偏强： 风险提示：发生预期外重大宏观事件；宏观数据不及预期；市场环境变化时，模型存在失效风险。 2 摘要 市场整体趋势：预计7月A股市场将呈现震荡调整格局，短期内由于动量效应可能持续上涨但后续或进入调整；港股市场整体节奏与A 股保持一致，但A股筹码结构优于港股，且恒生AH溢价指数低位反转，港股吸引力降低，A股表现可能优于港股，呈现宽幅震荡走势。 风格与板块表现：7月上旬成长风格相对占优，红利板块可能相对震荡；7月中下旬，随着动量效应消退与关税政策的不确定性增加， 成长风格可能进入相对逆风期，红利风格有望进一步凸显优势，但需关注海内外事件驱动因素 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20250703 日本居民财富配置 30 年变迁—低利率时代 系列（六） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 日本自 1990 年代泡沫破裂后，长期陷入低利率甚至负利率环境，居民 财富配置经历从非金融资产主导转向金融资产多元化、从保守储蓄向逐 步接受风险资产的深刻演变。其变迁过程与宏观经济周期、政策工具创 新和人口结构调整紧密结合。 ◼ 日本低利率环境下的居民财富配置变迁 ◼ 2000-2010 年代：老龄化加剧，保险类资产占比提高 2025 年 07 月 03 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《伯 25 转债：汽车制动系统国产龙 头》 2025-07-03 《债券"科技板"他山之石：我国与 海外科创债的机构持仓结构及策略有 何异同？》 2025-07-01 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 1990 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned for multi-faceted growth through environmental protection, energy, digital technology, and equipment manufacturing, with a strong focus on expanding its business model since its establishment in 2009 [8][13]. - The company has experienced rapid revenue and profit growth, with total revenue projected to reach 2,766 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.34% [1][19]. - The company is actively expanding its project operations, with a significant increase in both engineering and franchise orders, indicating a robust pipeline for future revenue [8][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Environmental Protection as a Source of Growth - The company has evolved from a core business in landfill leachate treatment to a diversified model encompassing energy, digital technology, and equipment manufacturing [8][13]. - Revenue has grown from 550 million yuan in 2020 to an expected 2,766 million yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.05% from 2023 to 2024 [1][19]. 2. Abundant Environmental Orders and Accelerated Project Operations - The company has a strong order backlog, with engineering orders increasing from 322 million yuan in 2021 to 460 million yuan in 2024, while franchise orders surged from 806 million yuan to 3,672 million yuan in the same period [42][46]. - The company is shifting its focus from water treatment to solid waste management, particularly in the garbage incineration sector, which is becoming a new growth driver [48][53]. 3. New Growth Curves in Energy, Digital, and Equipment - The company is strategically investing in high-quality renewable energy projects, including a 2GW photovoltaic project, with 1GW already under construction [8][49]. - The company is also responding to the national "East Data West Computing" strategy by optimizing its computing power resource layout across various regions [8][39]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 500 million yuan, 608.81 million yuan, and 749.05 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 50%, 21.71%, and 23.04% [1][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Water Affairs (00855.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the core operational profit is steadily growing, with a cash flow turning point already evident. The decline in FY2025 performance is primarily due to one-time impairment impacts, while the core operational business remains robust [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, the total revenue is projected at HKD 12,200 million, a decrease of 5.12% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 1,075 million, down 29.92% year-on-year [1][7] - The main business revenue is HKD 11,656 million, reflecting a 9.4% decline year-on-year, mainly due to reduced income from water supply and direct drinking water installation, maintenance, and construction services [1][7] - The report details segment performance: - Urban water supply revenue is HKD 7,498 million, down 9.4% year-on-year, with segment profit slightly up by 0.1% [1] - Direct drinking water revenue is HKD 657 million, down 61.9%, with segment profit down 58.9% [1] - Environmental segment revenue is HKD 1,523 million, up 42.2%, with segment profit increasing by 56.9% [1] - Total construction revenue is HKD 664 million, down 19.7%, with segment profit down 9.3% [1] - Property revenue is HKD 361 million, with segment profit up 16.5% [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts a net profit of HKD 1,372 million for FY2026, HKD 1,387 million for FY2027, and HKD 1,415 million for FY2028, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.2, 7.1, and 6.9 times [1][7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from HKD 53.3 billion in FY2024 to HKD 34 billion in FY2025, with a target of under HKD 20 billion for FY2026 [1][7] - The dividend per share for FY2025 is projected to remain stable at HKD 0.28, with a payout ratio of 42.5% and a dividend yield of 4.65% [1][7]