2025 年 5 月 14 日 总量研究 美国通胀继续回落，关税冲击尚待显现 ——2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 高关税如何影响美国通胀？——2025年3月 美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-04-11） 美国通胀有序降温，9 月降息 25BP 概率加 大——2024 年 7 月美国 CPI 数据点评 （2024-08-15） 美国通胀超预期回落，未来降息节奏如何？ — — 2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 数据点评 （2025-03-13） 美国通胀为何超预期上行？——2025年1月 美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-02-13） 美国核心通胀回落，降息预期升温——2024 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-01-16） 为什么我们认为美国通胀将低于预期？—— 2024 年 11 月 美 国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's "Nano AI Search" has shown strong performance, ranking sixth globally and second domestically in the latest AI product rankings, indicating a positive outlook for its internet commercialization business driven by AI upgrades [2][3]. - Despite a decline in revenue for 2024, the company is expected to benefit from AI-driven upgrades in its internet advertising and commercial business, with a projected return to profitability by 2027 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.948 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.33% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.094 billion yuan, worsening from the previous year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.864 billion yuan, an increase of 8.39% year-on-year, but the net loss attributable to shareholders expanded to 273 million yuan [1]. Business Segments - The internet advertising and services segment generated revenue of 4.166 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.85% year-on-year, while the internet value-added services segment saw revenue growth of 25.51% to 1.379 billion yuan [3]. - The security business reported revenue of 1.287 billion yuan, a decline of 27.06%, and the smart hardware business revenue fell by 35.44% to 1.014 billion yuan [3]. AI Product Development - The company has launched several AI-native products, including "Nano AI Search" and "360AI Office," and has enhanced its self-developed general-purpose large model "360 Smart Brain" [2]. - The "360 Security Model 3.0" was introduced and integrated into all security products, demonstrating the company's commitment to advancing its security offerings [4]. Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been revised downwards for 2025 and 2026 to -0.05 billion yuan and 0.71 billion yuan, respectively, with a new projection of 1.51 billion yuan for 2027 [4][5].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,108.27 points, down 1.87% for the day and up 15.20% year-to-date[6] - The Technology Index fell by 3.26% to 5,269.66 points, with a year-to-date increase of 17.94%[6] - The total turnover decreased by 31.8% to HKD 219.845 billion[8] Company Performance - Micron Robotics (2252.HK) raised HKD 380 million through a 13.8% discounted placement, with major shareholder intending to reduce stake from 48.08% to 43.98%[8] - Samsonite (1910.HK) reported a first-quarter profit of HKD 48.2 million, a year-on-year decline of 42.55%, with net sales of HKD 797 million, down 7.33%[8] Economic Indicators - The one-month HIBOR is at 1.57%, the lowest in two and a half years[8] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth rate was lower than expected, contributing to a rise in U.S. stock markets[8] Investment Recommendations - Cathay Pacific (293.HK) is recommended for purchase at HKD 9.60, with a target price of HKD 10.50 and a stop-loss at HKD 8.50[16][17] - Tencent Holdings (700.HK) has a suggested buy price of HKD 390, with a target price of HKD 450[12] Commodity Prices - New York crude oil closed at USD 63.67, up 2.78%[8] - New York gold settled at USD 3,247.80, an increase of 0.61%[8] Bond Yields - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.4729%, with a year-to-date change of -9.61 basis points[23]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company has been deeply engaged in the ion exchange and adsorption resin industry for nearly 30 years, leading technological advancements and industry development [1][16]. - The company is set to expand its production capacity significantly with the upcoming launch of the Jingmen project, which will enhance its competitive advantage in the market [2][24]. - The company is well-positioned to drive domestic substitution in various high-end sectors, including electronics and nuclear industries, due to its competitive advantages [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, Zhejiang Zhangguang Industrial Co., Ltd., was established in 1996 and has developed a comprehensive layout integrating R&D, production, and sales in the ion exchange and adsorption resin field [1][16]. - It has six subsidiaries and three main production bases, maintaining a leading position in the domestic market and participating in drafting multiple national and industry standards [1][18]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company currently has a designed production capacity of 19,750 tons for ion exchange and adsorption resins, 2,300 tons for macroporous adsorption resins, and 15,000 tons for food-grade resins [2][24]. - The Jingmen project, with a total investment of 1 billion RMB, is expected to produce 54,880 tons per year, with the first phase set to launch in the second half of 2025 [2][24]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The ion exchange resin market in China has grown from 2.7 billion RMB in 2018 to 4.5 billion RMB in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [3]. - The company has a diverse product matrix, including over 400 types of ion exchange resins and various adsorption resins, catering to multiple industries such as industrial water treatment, food and beverage, nuclear, and electronics [23][25]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 572 million RMB in 2024 to 1.196 billion RMB in 2027, with net profits expected to increase from 103 million RMB in 2024 to 265 million RMB in 2027 [5][4]. - The report anticipates a steady growth trajectory, supported by the new production capacity and ongoing domestic substitution efforts [4][28]. R&D and Innovation - The company emphasizes R&D, with a focus on differentiated functional products, and has invested significantly in innovation, holding 22 patents [36][28]. - It has been recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and continues to enhance its technological capabilities [36][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and chemical transportation industry [6]. Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between the US and China is expected to benefit cyclical sectors, with a positive outlook for the recovery of the petrochemical and chemical transportation sectors [2][4]. - The macroeconomic recovery and overall industrial demand improvement are anticipated to drive a rebound in chemical product profitability, with prices expected to rise from their lows throughout 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US plans to adjust tariffs on Chinese goods, which includes a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for the first 90 days, while retaining a 10% tariff [2]. - China will also modify its tariffs on US goods similarly, indicating a potential easing of trade friction [2]. 2. Demand Stimulus Measures - Recent meetings in China have focused on stimulating demand and stabilizing employment and the economy, with measures to promote consumption, stabilize foreign trade, and support effective investment [3]. 3. Sector Performance Outlook - The report highlights a positive outlook for several cyclical sectors, including refining, MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), agricultural chemicals, and vitamins, driven by macroeconomic recovery and industrial demand [4]. - Specific sectors mentioned include: - **Refining**: Lower energy prices are expected to ease cost pressures for downstream refining companies [4]. - **MDI**: Price increases have been observed from major companies, with price hikes ranging from 100 to 300 USD per ton [4]. - **Agricultural Chemicals**: Prices for fertilizers and pesticides are showing signs of recovery, influenced by seasonal demand and international trade dynamics [4]. - **Vitamins**: Supply shifts towards China are noted, with prices for certain vitamins increasing due to global supply constraints [4]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the "three barrels of oil" and oil service sectors, as well as companies benefiting from domestic substitution trends in materials [5]. - Specific companies to watch include: - **Oil and Gas**: China National Petroleum, Sinopec, CNOOC, and related service companies [5]. - **Materials**: Companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials are highlighted for their potential benefits from domestic substitution trends [5]. - **Agricultural Chemicals**: Companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng are recommended due to favorable market conditions [5]. - **Vitamins and Amino Acids**: Companies like Andisu and Zhejiang Medicine are noted for their growth potential in these sectors [5].

Group 1: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Honglu Steel Structure due to improved foreign trade environment and expected demand recovery, along with smart upgrades enhancing production and profitability [2] - China Jushi is highlighted for its large fiberglass export scale, while Puyang Refractories is noted for its new active magnesium oxide products replacing imports [2] - Hainan Huatie is recommended due to the implementation of computing power contracts and state-owned enterprise support, and Beixin Building Materials is favored for real estate chain recovery and diversified business development [2] - China Chemical is recognized for its good cash flow and rising chemical product prices, while China State Construction is recommended for real estate chain recovery and debt reduction efforts [2] Group 2: Metal Prices and Market Trends - Tungsten prices have reached a nearly 10-month high, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has increased for two consecutive weeks, indicating a potential demand surge in 2025 [3] - Lithium prices have dropped below 80,000 yuan per ton, with a possibility of accelerated capacity exit; companies with cost advantages and resource expansion are recommended, including Salt Lake Industry and Tianqi Lithium [3] - The Democratic Republic of Congo's decision to suspend cobalt exports for four months may alleviate global cobalt market oversupply, with Huayou Cobalt being a key focus [3] - The suspension of the Bisie tin mine is expected to support tin price increases, with recommendations for Tin Industry Co., Xingye Silver Tin, and Huaxi Nonferrous [3] Group 3: Chemical and Agricultural Sector Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on low-valuation, high-dividend, and well-performing "three major oil companies" and oil service sectors, recommending China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [4] - It also highlights the potential benefits for domestic semiconductor and panel material companies under the trend of domestic substitution, suggesting companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials [4] - The agricultural chemicals and private refining sectors are viewed positively, with recommendations for Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [4] - The vitamin and methionine sectors are also favored, with suggestions for Andisou and Zhejiang Medicine [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - China Unicom is positioned as a digital information service leader, with its cloud business expected to become a second growth curve, supported by a stable dividend yield averaging over 6% over the past five years [5] - The company is noted for its competitive edge in data center resources as a state-owned enterprise, leading to a "buy" rating [5] - Q Technology's camera module business is highlighted for continuous product structure optimization, with an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the construction and building materials industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port, and China National Materials [3]. Core Insights - The cement industry shows signs of improvement in the fundamentals from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a focus on corporate discipline and peak production implementation, as well as cement price trends [3][10]. - The glass industry experienced widespread losses in Q4 2024, but there was a significant improvement in Q1 2025, driven by the price of photovoltaic glass [3][15]. - The fiberglass sector saw a general improvement in profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profitability due to stable price increases and effective industry self-discipline [3][16]. - The consumer building materials sector continues to face declining revenues and profits, with expectations of sustained pressure on downstream demand from construction completions [3][20]. - The construction industry is experiencing a decline in revenue and profits among major companies, indicating weak operational data [3][24]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement industry's fundamentals improved from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in production growth rates and a recovery in net profits for leading companies [10]. - The national average cement price in early May 2025 was slightly lower than the same period last year, indicating a need to monitor price trends closely [10]. Glass Industry - The glass sector faced significant losses in Q4 2024, but Q1 2025 showed marked improvement, particularly in photovoltaic glass pricing [15]. - Key variables to watch include glass price trends and downstream demand changes [15]. Fiberglass Industry - Fiberglass companies reported improved profitability in Q1 2025, attributed to stable price increases and effective supply-side management [16]. - The inventory levels remained stable, indicating a weak balance in supply and demand [16]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a downward trend in revenue and profits, with expectations of continued pressure on demand from construction completions [20]. - The report highlights the correlation between construction completions and downstream demand [20]. Construction Industry - The construction sector is seeing a decline in revenue and profits among major companies, with many reporting weak operational data [24]. - The report notes that most central construction enterprises experienced a decline in orders, revenue, and profits in Q1 2025 [24].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the construction and building materials industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port, and China National Materials [3]. Core Views - The cement industry shows signs of improvement in the fundamentals from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a focus on corporate discipline and peak production implementation, as well as cement price trends [3][10]. - The glass industry experienced widespread losses in Q4 2024, but there was a significant improvement in Q1 2025, driven by the price of photovoltaic glass [3][15]. - The fiberglass sector saw a general improvement in profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profitability due to stable price increases and effective industry self-discipline [3][16]. - The consumer building materials sector continues to face declining revenues and profits, with expectations of sustained pressure on downstream demand from construction completions [3][20]. - The construction industry is experiencing a decline in revenue and profits among leading companies, indicating weak operational data [3][24]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement industry's fundamentals improved from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with a narrowing decline in quarterly cement production growth rates and a general recovery in net profits for leading companies [10]. - The national average cement price in early May 2025 was slightly lower than the same period last year, indicating a need to monitor corporate discipline and price trends [10]. Glass Industry - The glass industry faced significant losses in Q4 2024, but Q1 2025 showed marked improvement, particularly in photovoltaic glass prices [15]. - Key variables to watch include glass price trends and downstream demand changes [15]. Fiberglass Industry - Fiberglass companies reported improved profitability from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, with all sample companies achieving profits due to stable price increases and effective supply-side management [16]. - The inventory levels remained stable, indicating a weak balance in supply and demand [16]. Consumer Building Materials - Leading companies in the consumer building materials sector reported widespread revenue declines, with expectations of continued pressure on downstream demand linked to construction completions [20]. - The report anticipates a narrowing decline in new construction demand over the next year [20]. Construction Industry - The construction sector is seeing a decline in revenue and profits among major companies, with many reporting weak operational data [24]. - The report highlights a significant drop in orders and revenues for central state-owned enterprises in Q1 2025 [24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Unicom (0762.HK) [4] Core Viewpoints - China Unicom is positioned as a leading integrated information service operator, with a focus on digital information services and cloud business as a second growth curve [1][3] - The company achieved revenue of CNY 389.6 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a net profit of CNY 20.6 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year [1][4] - The company has a strong dividend yield, averaging over 6% from 2020 to 2024, providing a defensive attribute [1][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Unicom was established in 1994 and operates in 31 provinces in China and several countries abroad, ranking 279th in the 2024 Fortune Global 500 [1][13] - The company aims to build a comprehensive digital information infrastructure to support economic and social development [13] Business Focus - The company focuses on two core businesses: "Connected Communication" and "Intelligent Network Computing" [2][3] - The Connected Communication business generated revenue of CNY 261.3 billion in 2024, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with mobile and broadband user growth [2][45] - The Intelligent Network Computing business, which includes cloud services, generated revenue of CNY 82.5 billion, up 9.6% year-on-year, with the cloud segment alone reaching CNY 68.6 billion, a 17.1% increase [2][19] Financial Analysis - The company forecasts net profits of CNY 21.7 billion, CNY 23.2 billion, and CNY 25.1 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] - The average P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 12x and 11x, respectively, indicating a valuation below comparable companies [4] Industry Environment - The telecommunications industry in China is experiencing a slowdown, with overall revenue growth of 3.2% in 2024, while emerging businesses like cloud computing and big data are growing steadily [26][29] - New business segments accounted for 25% of total telecommunications revenue in 2024, with significant growth in cloud computing and big data [29][40] Strategic Initiatives - China Unicom is enhancing its cloud capabilities and has established over 300 integrated computing resource pools, with a computing power scale exceeding 17 EFLOPS [3][47] - The company is leveraging AI and cloud technologies to drive digital transformation across various sectors, including government, healthcare, and industrial applications [3][40]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Unicom (0762.HK) [4][6] Core Viewpoints - China Unicom is positioned as a leading integrated information service operator, with a focus on digital information services and cloud business as a second growth curve [1][3] - The company achieved revenue of 389.6 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, and a net profit of 20.6 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year [1][5] - The company has a robust dividend yield averaging over 6% over the past five years, indicating strong defensive attributes [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Unicom was established in 1994 and operates in 31 provinces in China and several countries worldwide, ranking 279th in the 2024 Fortune Global 500 [1][13] Business Segments - The company focuses on two core business areas: "Connected Communication" and "Intelligent Computing" [2][3] - The Connected Communication segment generated revenue of 261.3 billion RMB in 2024, growing by 1.5% year-on-year, with mobile and broadband user numbers reaching 470 million [2][45] - The Intelligent Computing segment, which includes Unicom Cloud, generated revenue of 68.6 billion RMB in 2024, a 17.1% increase year-on-year, and is expected to become a key growth driver [2][3] Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 21.7 billion RMB, 23.2 billion RMB, and 25.1 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] - The average P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 12x and 11x, respectively, which are below the average for comparable companies [4] Industry Environment - The telecommunications industry in China is experiencing a slowdown, with overall revenue growth of 3.2% in 2024, but emerging businesses like cloud computing and big data are growing steadily [26][29] - New business revenue accounted for 25% of total telecommunications revenue in 2024, with cloud computing and big data revenues increasing by 13.2% and 69.2% respectively [29][40] Strategic Initiatives - China Unicom is enhancing its cloud capabilities through the integration of AI technologies, aiming to transform its business model from resource leasing to AI-enabled services [40][41] - The company has established over 300 integrated training and inference computing resource pools, with a total computing power exceeding 17 EFLOPS [47]