1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The micro trading thermometer reading of the bond market this period remained basically flat at 49% [10]. - The number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 25%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantile rebounded significantly, the allocation disk strength continued to weaken, the policy spread quantile widened significantly, and all comparison indicators were in the cold range [10]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Indicator Distribution - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range increased to 5 (25% of the total), the number in the neutral range decreased to 6 (30% of the total), and the number in the cold range increased to 9 (45% of the total). The 1/10Y turnover rate moved from the neutral range to the over - heated range, and the market spread moved from the neutral range to the cold range [3][18]. 3.2 Transaction Heat Indicators - Only the quantile of the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate decreased by 28 percentage points, while the quantiles of other indicators rebounded. The quantiles of the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, the whole - market turnover rate, and the institutional leverage increased by 21, 22, and 10 percentage points respectively. The average quantile of transaction heat increased by 4 percentage points [4]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 33%, the proportion in the neutral range rose to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 17%. The 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate quantile increased by 21 percentage points, moving from the neutral range to the over - heated range [5][21]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The quantiles of the allocation disk strength and the listed company's wealth management purchase volume decreased by 22 and 17 percentage points respectively, while the quantiles of other indicators rebounded slightly. The average quantile of institutional behavior decreased by 4 percentage points [4]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 38%, the proportion in the neutral range decreased to 25%, and the proportion in the cold range remained at 38%. The quantiles of the allocation disk strength and the listed company's wealth management purchase volume fell to 10% and 21% respectively [6][25]. 3.4 Spread Indicators - The market spread decreased by 1 percentage point, the policy spread quantile increased by 11 percentage points, and the average quantile of spreads increased by 5 percentage points [4]. - The policy spread continued to narrow by 3bp to 0bp, and its quantile increased by 11 percentage points to 54%, remaining in the neutral range. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - National Development spread were basically flat, and the average spread widened slightly by 1bp to 19bp, with its quantile slightly decreasing by 1 percentage point to 39%, remaining in the neutral range [6][29]. 3.5 Comparison Indicators - The quantile of the stock - bond comparison decreased by 2 percentage points, the quantile of the commodity comparison increased by 1 percentage point, and other comparison indicators changed little. The average quantile of comparisons was basically flat compared with the previous period [4]. - All comparison indicators were in the cold range. The quantile of the stock - bond comparison continued to fall by 2 percentage points to 36%, the quantile of the commodity comparison increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 13%, and the quantile of the real - estate comparison was basically flat [7][32].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI/AR glasses industry and related supply chains, indicating a strong growth potential in the second half of the year [1][4]. Core Insights - Meta's launch of the AI glasses Oakley Meta HSTN is expected to drive deep applications in sports like skiing and cycling, with significant hardware upgrades and AI functionalities [1][5]. - The demand for AI-PCB is projected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing orders from multiple AI-PCB companies and the expansion of domestic copper-clad laminate manufacturers [1][4]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with strong growth expected in the storage segment due to rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [21][23]. Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - Meta and Oakley's new AI glasses are set to enhance the application of AI in sports, with features like 8-hour battery life and 3K video resolution [1][5]. - The report anticipates a new wave of innovation in AI consumer electronics, particularly in AR glasses [5]. PCB Industry - The PCB industry is showing signs of accelerated growth, particularly in the copper-clad laminate sector, with expectations of significant quarter-on-quarter growth [7][4]. - The report highlights the positive outlook for the PCB industry, driven by demand from home appliances, automotive, and AI applications [7]. Semiconductor Industry - The storage segment is expected to see a price increase due to reduced supply and increased demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [21][23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials in light of global supply chain challenges [24][28]. Key Companies - Companies like Nvidia, which are actively increasing orders for AI-related products, are expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI-PCB and computing hardware [32][33]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are positioned to gain market share due to the ongoing trend of localization and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain [35][36].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative model companies such as iFlytek, and highlights potential in AI hardware applications with recommendations for companies like Yingshi Network and Hongsoft Technology [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that AI-related functionalities can enhance user engagement and payment rates in consumer applications, recommending attention to companies like Kingsoft Office and Wanjing Technology [2] - The current market is characterized by a chaotic fundamental environment, with some high-frequency data showing resilience, while investor sentiment remains cautious about future expectations [11][12] - The report anticipates that the second half of the year may yield better operational performance due to base effects, new technology/product launches, and policy implementations [11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The report notes that OpenAI has received a contract worth up to $200 million from the U.S. Department of Defense to develop advanced AI capabilities [11] - MiniMax has launched several innovations, including the MiniMax-M1 model and the MiniMaxAgent, which have garnered industry attention for their cost-effectiveness and capabilities [11] - The report emphasizes the importance of risk appetite in influencing market valuations, with a potential shift towards theme-based investments [11] Subsector Insights - High-growth sectors identified for 2025 include AI computing power and LiDAR, while accelerating sectors include AI applications [10][12] - Stable growth sectors encompass software outsourcing, financial IT, and the Huawei supply chain, with upward trends expected in quantum computing and data elements [12] - The report highlights that the education IT and cybersecurity sectors are at an inflection point for growth, while industrial software and medical IT face some pressure [12] Market Review - From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the computer industry index (Shenwan) fell by 1.83%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.37 percentage points [13] - The report notes that the computer sector's performance was in the middle range among 31 Shenwan primary industry indices during this period [13] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the Huawei Developer Conference and the Shenzhen International Consumer Electronics Show, which may present opportunities in related industries [25]

风险提示 本周观点 关注海外资产的季报变化： 投资逻辑 法律框架逐步完善，虚拟资产趋势向上。1）港股整体观点：今年港股整体表现突出，各种板块、概念层出不穷， 底层逻辑来自于便宜资产的长期低估，大量内地优质资产在港 IPO，提升了港股的资产质量，吸引了全球流动资 金的关注、加持。另外，去美元化的全球投资策略和美国降息预期对港股的流动性利好。据此我们对港股的未来 趋势持续乐观。短期层面，由于估值、国际环境等问题，港股不排除震荡或者回调的风险，特别是对于前期涨幅 较大&估值较高的个股，短期回调属于健康调整。2）目前我们持续看多虚拟资产（含稳定币）的发展，近期包括 蚂蚁、META、贝莱德在内的传统互联网、金融机构向虚拟资产和稳定币延申的趋势明显。我们认为，稳定币政策 只是虚拟资产大趋势下的一环，未来还会有更多政策制度出台，持续看好。美国、香港的虚拟资产相关法律框架 逐步完善，虚拟资产趋势向上。 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：K12 教培行业高景气维持，非学科产品合规优 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on four main investment lines within the securities sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to implement a series of measures to deepen the reform of the science and technology innovation sector, which is expected to enhance the vitality of the capital market and benefit the venture capital industry [2][36]. - The report highlights the anticipated growth in the average daily trading volume (ADT) for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which reached 2,103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50% [3]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from new regulations on dividend insurance, with the settlement yield cap set at 3.2%, favoring leading companies in the market [4][32]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The CSRC's initiatives aim to strengthen the multi-tiered capital market and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation, which will support science and technology enterprises [2][36]. - The report recommends focusing on specific companies such as Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) and Sichuan Shuangma, which are expected to benefit from policy catalysts in the venture capital sector [3]. Insurance Sector - New regulations on dividend insurance have been introduced, standardizing the settlement yield cap at 3.2%, which is beneficial for leading insurance companies [4][32]. - The report suggests that the insurance sector may experience a value reassessment, with a focus on low valuation and strong performance in the upcoming quarterly reports [4][42]. Market Review - The report notes that the A-share market has shown mixed performance, with the non-bank financial sector underperforming compared to the broader market [10][14]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was reported at 12,150 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 11.4% week-on-week [13]. Data Tracking - The report provides insights into the brokerage business, noting a significant year-on-year increase in new equity fund issuance and a robust performance in the bond underwriting sector [13][27]. - The asset management sector has seen a steady increase, with public non-monetary funds reaching 19.1 trillion yuan, up 1.2% from the previous month [13]. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term capital, including insurance and social security funds, in supporting private equity investments in technology companies [36][37]. - The establishment of foreign-owned insurance asset management companies in Shanghai is highlighted as a significant development in the insurance sector [37].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The nuclear fusion sector is entering a period of intensive capital expenditure, with ongoing tenders for auxiliary power systems, suggesting significant investment opportunities in related companies [6][24] - The "marine economy" and "deep-sea technology" policies are emerging, highlighting the importance of high-end marine equipment manufacturing, particularly in shipbuilding and deep-sea robotics [6][25] - Demand for forklifts is slightly better than expected, with sales in May reaching 123,472 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, indicating potential growth in the smart logistics and robotics sectors [6][25] - The general machinery sector is experiencing a slowdown, while engineering machinery shows a stable upward trend, and railway equipment is also on the rise [26][36][47] Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 2.16% in the week of June 16-20, 2025, ranking 19th among 31 primary industry categories [3][14] - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 3.75%, ranking 8th among the same categories [3][18] Key Data Tracking - General machinery is experiencing a downturn, with May manufacturing PMI at 49.5, indicating a contraction [26] - Engineering machinery sales in May reached 18,200 units, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, indicating a stable market [36] - Railway fixed asset investment and passenger volume are both showing positive growth, suggesting a recovery in demand [47] Industry Dynamics - The nuclear fusion sector is seeing significant capital investment, with individual experimental pile projects costing tens to hundreds of billions [6][24] - The marine economy is being prioritized by government policies, with a focus on shipbuilding and deep-sea technology [6][25] - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with potential for recovery driven by geopolitical factors and OPEC's production decisions [51] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks to watch include Hezhong Intelligent, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, China Shipbuilding, and China CRRC, among others [12]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the outdoor apparel sector, particularly with the anticipated IPO of Berghaus, which is expected to boost market sentiment [10][19]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector showed strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands gaining momentum and top brands maintaining a stable market position [1]. - Berghaus, a leading high-performance outdoor apparel brand, reported a revenue of 1.766 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 94.5% year-on-year increase, with a three-year CAGR of 116% [2][11]. - The report highlights the growth of domestic beauty brands during the 618 festival, with significant sales increases across various platforms [1][2]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales in May showed a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, aided by favorable weather and the early 618 promotions [20][23]. - The report tracks various industry segments, indicating a stable upward trend in outdoor sports, beauty, and medical aesthetics sectors, while other segments like textile raw materials are under slight pressure [3]. Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, the report recommends brands like Hailan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and has strong profitability potential [4][31]. - In the beauty sector, it suggests focusing on companies like Juzhi Biotechnology and Jinbo Biotechnology, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [4][31]. Market Review and News - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector experienced a decline of 5.12% in the recent week, with specific companies like Li Ning and Fengzhu Textile showing positive performance [5][27]. - It also highlights the digital transformation initiatives in the textile industry, aiming for over 70% digitalization in key business processes by 2027 [33].

国补后续 1320 亿资金将于 7 月、10 月分批下达，618 拉动下 5 月双线零售高增 部分地区补贴额度紧张，6 月以来国补进入调整阶段。据国家发改委、财政部等，25 年计划向地方安排 3000 亿元国 债资金加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，上半年共向地方下达 1620 亿中央资金以支持消费品以旧换新。截至 5 月 31 日， 国补资金消耗总额达 1550-1650 亿，约占到全年规模 50%左右。受国补资金消耗偏快影响，6 月起，部分区域如重庆、 江苏、广东、湖北等宣布国补政策进入阶段性调整。 下半年国补接续已确定，剩余资金将于 7 月、10 月下达。据国家发改委、财政部，上半年共下达 1620 亿资金支持以 旧换新，剩余 1380 亿将于 7 月、10 月分批下达，确保各地于 7 月陆续重启申领。据各地政府/商务厅通知，重庆第二 阶段政策已在起草过程中，江苏恢复线上申领并实施每日限额策略，广东部分城市恢复线下操作，湖北也将于 6 月下 旬恢复。此外，下半年补贴或通过分领域、分时段等方案细化资金的使用方式，确保政策更加平稳有序、资金均衡使 用至年底。 618 拉动下家电 5 月线上、线下零售继续提速。20 ...

Core Insights - The current consumer industry shows a trend of differentiation, with mass consumption and government-business consumption performing distinctly. Companies that embrace new consumer groups, new business models, and new channels are emerging, while traditional food and beverage companies are solidifying their foundations and actively seeking change [3][4] - The core theme remains chasing structural prosperity, with a continued positive outlook on high-growth sectors such as snacks and soft drinks, while monitoring the recovery pace of the liquor and restaurant chains [3][4] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift towards health-conscious and emotional consumption, with products like large-pack beverages, sugar-free tea, and health-oriented snacks gaining traction. The emergence of diverse channels aligns with changing consumer habits, leading to significant growth in categories like konjac and quail eggs [3][4] - New channels such as online media e-commerce, offline delivery, and membership supermarkets are rising, providing efficient supply chain solutions and rapid growth opportunities for innovative companies [3][4] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with external risks expected to ease. Policies aimed at steady growth are anticipated to continue, improving consumer sentiment and spending power. The sector is currently undervalued, with a good safety margin [4][60] - Focus on high-end liquor with stable prices and strong brand equity, as well as potential cyclical recovery stocks like Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [4][60] Restaurant Chain Sector - The restaurant chain sector is showing signs of recovery, albeit with some challenges. The impact of consumption policies is gradually becoming evident, with expectations for improvement in consumer confidence and spending in the second half of the year [4][66] - The B-end is under pressure, but some demand is being compensated by the C-end. Companies in the frozen food and seasoning sectors are experiencing revenue growth challenges, while third-party sales are becoming a key support [4][66] Snack and Beverage Trends - The snack market is witnessing a robust growth trajectory, with the konjac category showing exceptional performance, with revenues increasing from 257 million yuan in 2022 to 838 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 80% [17][21] - The soft drink market is also growing steadily, with the retail scale expected to reach 585.8 billion yuan by 2024, driven by innovations in sports drinks and sugar-free beverages [29][32] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a coexistence of consumption upgrading and downgrading, with new channels capturing diverse consumer needs. Companies like Wancheng and Mingming are demonstrating strong growth potential through innovative channel strategies [11][24] - The overall industry is in a bottoming phase, with potential benefits from low valuations and supportive policies. The focus should be on high-end liquor and cyclical recovery stocks [60][55]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "顺丰控股" (SF Express) in the express delivery sector and "海晨股份" (Haichen Co.) in the logistics sector, as well as "中国国航" (Air China) and "南方航空" (Southern Airlines) in the aviation sector [3][4][5]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows strong growth, with SF Express's business volume growth significantly outpacing the industry, and the overall express delivery volume in May reaching 173.2 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [3]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Haichen Co. benefiting from improved demand in consumer electronics [4]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a robust recovery, with domestic passenger volume in May reaching 56.45 million, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and international passenger volume increasing by 23% [5][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Sector Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 0.1% during the week of June 14-20, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.5%, outperforming the market by 0.4% [2][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is facing mixed conditions, with container shipping rates under pressure, while oil shipping rates are rising due to geopolitical tensions [6][22]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% week-on-week but down 30.2% year-on-year [6][22]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is showing strong upward momentum, with domestic and international passenger volumes recovering significantly compared to 2019 levels [5][58]. - The average daily flights reached 14,867, with international flights increasing by 16.17% year-on-year [5]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail and road sectors are stable, with rail passenger volume in April reaching 382 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.97% [84]. - The national highway freight traffic increased by 2.46% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in road logistics [7][88]. 2.4 Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a total of 39.3 billion pieces collected in the week of June 9-15, with a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [3]. - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, indicating pricing pressures in the sector [3].