1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The yield spread of ultra - long bonds has reached a new high. The adjustment trend of ultra - long credit bonds is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the duration strategy needs to be cautious [4][34] - Although the coupon advantage of ultra - long credit bonds is apparent after adjustment, due to the lack of incremental funds and the weak market sentiment, investors should be prudent in adopting the duration strategy [4][34] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1存量市场特征 - The yield center of ultra - long credit bonds has been continuously rising. From September 29 to 30, 2025, the interest rate center of existing ultra - long credit bonds further increased. The number of existing ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.6% - 2.7% increased to 248 compared to the previous week [2][12] 3.2一级发行情况 - There was no issuance of ultra - long credit bonds in the week before the National Day [3][20] 3.3二级成交表现 - The decline of the ultra - long credit bond index was greater than that of other mainstream bond varieties. From September 29 to 30, 2025, the index prices of medium - short - term credit bonds and bank sub - debt showed signs of stabilization, but the ultra - long credit bond index continued to lead the decline. The index of AA + credit bonds with a term of over 10 years decreased by 0.24% week - on - week [4][21] - The liquidity of ultra - long credit bonds was under pressure. In two trading days of the week, the total number of transactions of general credit bonds with a term of over 7 years was 62, indicating a weakening trend. The yield and spread of ultra - long credit bonds both increased, and the spread between general credit bonds with a term of over 10 years and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 50bp [4][24] - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. The TKN ratio of varieties with a term of over 10 years was at a low level, and the deviation of high - valuation transactions was much higher than that of bonds with a term of less than 10 years [4][28] - In terms of investor structure, funds continued to sell ultra - long credit bonds. Concerns about duration risk and liquidity flaws affected the allocation decisions of trading desks. The support from insurance and wealth - management institutions was limited, and the adjustment trend of ultra - long credit bonds was difficult to reverse in the short term [4][32] - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra - long credit bonds of each term and treasury bonds of similar terms reached a 24 - year high this week, and the spread of varieties around the 10 - year term reached a new high for the year [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company plans to grant 2.578 million restricted stocks to 11 incentive targets, representing 0.124% of the total share capital, with a grant price of 9.24 yuan per share. The plan includes two vesting periods of 36 and 48 months, with 50% of the stocks vesting in each period. Performance metrics include relative total shareholder return and compound annual growth rate of earnings per share (EPS) [3][4]. - The company intends to repurchase shares worth between 32.25 million yuan and 64.5 million yuan, at a price not exceeding 25 yuan per share, to support the restricted stock incentive plan [3][4]. - The company has decided to terminate plans for a spin-off listing of its overseas subsidiary due to time constraints and to mitigate dilution effects on the parent company, indicating healthy development of its overseas business [4]. - The company will change its name from "华新水泥股份有限公司" to "华新建材集团股份有限公司" to better reflect its business scope beyond cement, marking a strategic shift towards broader building materials [4]. Financial Projections - The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders to be 2.8 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 3.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 25%, and 7% [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 36.647 billion yuan, 38.620 billion yuan, and 41.221 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7.1%, 5.4%, and 6.7% respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the health insurance industry, suggesting a potential increase in value exceeding 15% over the next 3-6 months [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of health insurance in the national health security system by 2030, as outlined in the recent regulatory guidance [1]. - It highlights the need for differentiated requirements across various segments of health insurance, with a focus on commercial medical insurance as a core growth area [2]. - The report advocates for the development of innovative insurance products that cater to specific groups, such as those with pre-existing conditions and rare diseases [2]. - It stresses the importance of collaboration among regulatory bodies, insurance organizations, and information-sharing platforms to enhance the health insurance ecosystem [3]. - The report outlines key future regulatory priorities, including the promotion of floating yield health insurance and the enhancement of health management services within insurance products [3]. Summary by Sections Commercial Medical Insurance - The report supports the active development of commercial medical insurance, which is expected to be a significant growth driver in the health insurance sector [2]. - It encourages the inclusion of new medical technologies and treatments in insurance coverage and the establishment of a pricing mechanism based on risk categories [2]. Disease Insurance - The report suggests a steady development approach for disease insurance, with a focus on supporting well-rated insurance companies in offering dividend-based long-term health insurance products [2]. Long-term Care Insurance - There is a call to accelerate the development of commercial long-term care insurance and income loss insurance due to disability [2]. Collaboration and Policy Support - The report emphasizes the need for enhanced cooperation between regulatory authorities and local governments to support the development of regional and specialized insurance products [3]. - It also highlights the importance of leveraging existing policies to promote group health insurance and facilitate quick claims processing in commercial medical insurance [3].

证券板块 市场成交额抬高，据 Wind 数据显示，截至目前 2025Q3 日均股票成交额（单边）1.00 万亿元，同比增长 117%；两融 余额创新高，截至 2025 年 9 月 29 日两融余额达到 24287 亿元，日均余额同比+29.9%；2025 年第三季度上证指数上 涨 12.7%，同比+0.29pct；沪深 300 上涨 17.9%，同比+1.83pct；中债总财富指数下跌 1.0%，同比-2.02pct。我们预 计券商经纪、利息、自营等收入有望继续受益，券商三季报业绩预计表现较好。 投资建议：建议关注三条主线：（1）市场成交额抬高，主要指数上涨，建议关注经纪、两融、投资占比高的券商；券 商板块上半年业绩同比显著改善，高盈利与低估值的显著错配凸显配置性价比，建议关注估值显著低于平均水平的头 部优质券商；建议关注券商并购潜在标的机会。（2）四川双马：科技赛道占优，创投业务有望受益，布局基因治疗赛 道新标的，深化生物医药产业链。公司管理基金的已投项目：屹唐股份（科创板已上市）、奕斯伟材料（科创板 IPO 过 会）、奕斯伟计算以及群核科技（港交所 IPO 申报）、沐曦、邦德激光、丽豪半导体等上市进程加快 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a seasonal demand increase, with lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices rising by 20% in September [1][6] - In August, domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.18 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [1][4] - The report highlights the importance of solid-state battery technology and its potential breakthroughs in addressing interface issues, which are critical for commercialization [3][18] Summary by Sections Monthly Research Insights - The report discusses solutions to solid-solid interface issues in solid-state battery manufacturing, emphasizing the need for breakthroughs in physical, chemical, and mechanical dimensions [3][13] Industry Sentiment Tracking and Review - New energy vehicle sales in August showed strong growth, with China, Europe, and the US leading the market [4][22] - Domestic energy storage installations in August reached 12.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 58% [5][28] - The report forecasts a significant increase in lithium battery production in October, with year-on-year growth expected to be between 21% and 50% [5][34] Price and Volume Analysis - Lithium battery material prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices increasing by 20% in September [6][35] - The report notes that the lithium battery supply chain is entering a replenishment phase, with inventory levels rising [39] New Technology Developments - Solid-state batteries and composite current collectors are entering a critical engineering and industrialization phase, with significant orders expected for 2025 [6][44] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in solid-state battery technology, particularly in dry processing and isostatic pressing equipment [18][21] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the lithium battery sector and those involved in solid-state technology breakthroughs, such as CATL and EVE Energy [7][21]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the narrative of a "weak dollar" has become deeply ingrained in the market, influencing global asset prices, particularly benefiting emerging markets over developed markets since September [2][10] - The performance of global stock markets has shown a clear trend where emerging markets, particularly Brazil and South Korea, have outperformed developed markets due to their sensitivity to the dollar index and the effects of AI and metal mining [2][10] - Precious metals, especially gold and silver, have emerged as the strongest sectors under the weak dollar narrative, outperforming industrial metals like copper [2][22] Group 2 - The report discusses two potential paths for the U.S. economy: one led by the service sector, which could lead to recession and a rebound in the dollar, and another led by manufacturing, which could result in a soft landing and a more gradual weakening of the dollar [31][34] - The divergence between the service and manufacturing sectors in the U.S. has been the longest since 2000, with the service sector showing resilience while manufacturing struggles under high interest rates [31][33] - The report suggests that if manufacturing leads the recovery, the extent of the dollar's weakness will depend on the comparative strength of the U.S. economy versus non-U.S. economies [34] Group 3 - For Chinese assets, the report outlines two scenarios: one where a rebound in the dollar due to increased risk aversion could lead to capital outflows from non-U.S. markets, and another where a recovery in U.S. manufacturing could bolster export demand for Chinese goods [3][49] - The report emphasizes that despite recent gains, Chinese assets still have a significant valuation gap compared to developed markets, suggesting potential resilience in the face of dollar fluctuations [3][45] - The potential recovery of global manufacturing could lead to improved export orders for China, supporting domestic demand and corporate profitability [3][51] Group 4 - The report indicates that the reliance on the weak dollar narrative may not sustain a long-term bull market for Chinese equities, suggesting that a shift in market dynamics may be necessary [3][57] - It recommends investors prepare for changes driven by domestic improvements and global economic shifts, focusing on sectors like upstream resources and capital goods that could benefit from a recovery in manufacturing [3][58] - The report also highlights the potential for consumer sectors, particularly travel-related industries, to see a rebound as travel data improves compared to previous years [3][62]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 550.41 RMB based on a 2026 PS of 100x [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned to benefit from strong policy support and is expected to accelerate its growth in the quantum technology sector, which has been highlighted as a core area for future industrial development by the government [2]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth across its business segments, particularly in quantum computing, which has seen a remarkable increase of 283.92% in revenue [3][28]. - The company is expected to gradually overcome its low profitability issues, with a forecasted return to profitability in 2025, driven by revenue growth and improved cost management [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2009, the company focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of quantum communication, quantum computing, and quantum precision measurement products, holding strong technical and cost advantages [1]. - In 2024, the company raised 1.775 billion RMB through a private placement, with China Telecom Quantum Group becoming the controlling shareholder [1]. Investment Logic - The quantum technology sector is receiving increased government investment, with over 2 billion USD allocated in 2024, positioning the company for accelerated growth [2]. Growth Potential - Revenue from quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement reached 55.96 million, 51.74 million, and 8.57 million RMB respectively in the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth [3][28]. - The company is optimizing operational efficiency and reducing costs, with a notable decrease in sales and management expense ratios [3][29]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 371 million, 566 million, and 900 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 24 million, 37 million, and 87 million RMB [4][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in profitability, with a forecasted EPS of 0.23 RMB in 2025 [4]. Business Segments - The company has a diversified product portfolio across three main areas: quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement, each contributing to its growth [15][25]. - The quantum communication segment is particularly strong, with the company being a leading supplier of quantum communication devices in China [15][34]. Market Trends - The quantum communication market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 93.7 billion RMB by 2025, driven by increasing demand for secure communication technologies [40][44].

Geopolitical Developments - Ongoing multi-departmental dialogues between the US and China indicate a positive trend in bilateral relations, despite ongoing tensions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict[1] - Poland has reopened the China-Europe Railway after a closure of over ten days, reflecting Europe's strategic adjustments amid geopolitical pressures[1] US Trade Policies - The US has announced new tariffs effective October 1, including 100% on brand or patented drugs, 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks[2][14] - The 232 trade investigations initiated by the Trump administration have increased unpredictability and uncertainty in trade relations, with over ten investigations launched during his second term[2][16] Impact on China - The 232 trade investigations are expected to have limited short-term impact on China, as Chinese companies adapt by shifting production strategies to mitigate tariff effects[3][20] - Key exports from China to the US include electronics (24% of total exports), machinery (17%), and furniture, which may face increased costs and reduced competitiveness due to new tariffs[20] Future Focus Areas - Upcoming attention will be on the progress of US-China trade negotiations, potential new conditions in Russia-Ukraine talks, and developments in the Gaza conflict[3][22] - The US government faces a shutdown risk on October 1, which could delay key economic data releases, impacting market stability[24]

Group 1: Policy Differences - The new policy financial tools in 2023 are aimed at supporting domestic demand and technological innovation, contrasting with the 2022 focus on stabilizing growth[3] - The new tools will prioritize eight key sectors, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, and green low-carbon initiatives, with 20% of funding directed to private enterprises[3][10] - Infrastructure investment growth has declined significantly, with August's year-on-year growth rates at -5.9% and -6.4% for new and old standards respectively, indicating a shift in funding usage towards debt repayment rather than project construction[3][10] Group 2: Funding Sources and Economic Impact - The funding sources for the new policy tools differ from 2022, as the current PSL rate is higher than the issuance rate of policy bonds, reducing the necessity for PSL support[4][21] - If the new policy financial tools leverage the same 5.5 times ratio as in 2022, the 500 billion yuan allocation could mobilize 2.75 trillion yuan in new social financing, potentially driving 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan in fixed asset investment[5][30] - The net financing of local government bonds has been negative, with a cumulative net financing of -421.9 billion yuan from January to September 2023, reflecting a reduced willingness for traditional infrastructure investment[10][21] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - There may be discrepancies in understanding the policy details, which could lead to differences between expectations and actual implementation[6][31] - The timing of policy rollout and its impact on investment may fall short of expectations, particularly as the fourth quarter approaches and construction activity may slow down[6][31]

- The report discusses the overall performance of the four major stock index futures, with the CSI 500 futures showing the largest increase of 3.83% and the SSE 50 futures showing the smallest increase of 1.00%[3] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts decreased compared to the previous week, with the IH futures showing the largest decrease of -24.59% and the IC futures showing the smallest decrease of -5.41%[3] - The basis levels for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts are provided, with the IF and IM discounts deepening, the IC discount narrowing, and the IH discount turning into a premium[3] - The cross-period spread rates for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts are given, with the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts' cross-period spread rates being at the 45.80%, 49.70%, 60.20%, and 40.00% percentiles since 2019, respectively[3] - The report mentions that there are no opportunities for positive or negative arbitrage in the IF main contract based on the closing prices[4] - The dividend forecast indicates that the dividends for the main contracts of the four major index futures have minimal impact on the September main contracts' points[4] - The market sentiment has improved, with the IH basis turning from a discount to a premium and the total open interest of the four major index futures increasing, with the IC showing the most significant increase[4][13] - The report includes a detailed explanation of the calculation methods for index futures arbitrage, including the formulas for positive and negative arbitrage returns[46] - The dividend estimation method is explained, which involves predicting the dividend points based on historical dividend patterns and the current EPS and payout ratio[47][48]