Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry [6] Core Insights - The hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase in 2025, with significant advancements in fuel cell vehicles and green hydrogen projects [5] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on hydrogen and fuel cell manufacturing as the main investment lines, recommending specific companies for attention [5] Industry Data Review - In May, the installed capacity of fuel cell systems reached 333.30 MW, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%, primarily due to delays in the promotion of demonstration city clusters [12] - The cumulative installed capacity from January to May 2025 was 255.58 MW, reflecting a 7% year-on-year decline, indicating cyclical fluctuations in the industry [12] - Fuel cell vehicle insurance registrations in May were 122 units, down 84.26% year-on-year, with a total of 1,367 units registered from January to May 2025, a decrease of 33.2% [20] - The report notes that the Guangdong demonstration city cluster led in vehicle deployment with 83 units in May, while the cumulative deployment from January to May was 332 units [35] Company Performance - YunTao Hydrogen Energy ranked first in May with an installed capacity of 22,010 kW, accounting for 66% of the market, followed by Dongfang Electric and Hyundai [23] - In terms of vehicle insurance, SANY Automotive led in May with 62 units, representing 50.8% of the market share [32] - Cumulatively, from January to May 2025, China National Heavy Duty Truck ranked first in insurance registrations with 510 units, followed by Hyundai with 204 units [32] Green Hydrogen Projects - Green hydrogen demonstration projects have seen a total of 788.76 MW tendered, a 35% year-on-year increase, indicating a growing interest in large-scale projects [42] - The cumulative planned capacity for green hydrogen projects has reached 6.61 million tons, with an operational rate of 31.6% [50] Policy Developments - The report outlines that multiple supportive policies have been introduced at both national and local levels to accelerate the commercialization of hydrogen energy [36][38] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved seven hydrogen industry standards, effective from November 1, 2025, to facilitate the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles [40]

又见久期行情极致演绎。 中债 10 年以上隐含评级 AA+全价指数近一周涨幅达到 0.9%，月内累计涨幅高达 1.5%。另一方面，交易所超长信用债 表现亦不俗，中证信用债 7 年至 10 年 AAA 等级指数周度涨幅在 0.43%。 本轮超长信用债如何被炒作？ 首先从银行间样本来观察，有四点特征：1）抢配节奏显著加快，成交收益下行幅度加大，2）20 年至 30 年活跃交易 信用债主体，银行间存量券 6 月单月平均涨幅在 2%至 3%之间，3）5 年 AA+城投债策略在最近两周持续跑赢其他组合， 4）成交量进一步印证炒作逻辑。其次，交易所抢配信用债同样强劲，值得注意的是，本轮行情有交易所超长信用债联 动银行间个券的特征。 两个市场，行情触发点不同。 截至 6 月 20 日，1 年以上信用债 63%存量规模集中在 2%以下，而 1 月初水平约在 59%，要在 2%以上做收益，势必要在 中长久期资产布局。银行间和交易所同时演绎久期行情，逻辑是否一致？一方面，从银行间 7 年以上信用债净买入交 易对手来看，保险和基金是主力。其中，基金近两周净买入规模持续增长，单周读数超过 73 亿，超过保险的边际增 量。另一方面，交 ...

一、组合策略收益跟踪 本周模拟组合走势依旧分化，除部分信用风格组合外，多数策略收益降低。利率风格组合中，城投超长型、二级超长 型策略组合收益相对靠前，分别达到 0.2%、0.15%；信用风格组合中，城投超长型、二级超长型策略组合收益居于前 列，读数分别为 0.59%、0.37%。 分重仓券种看，信用债重仓策略收益普遍超过利率债重仓组合。信用风格存单重仓组合周度收益平均下行 0.7bp，且 自 5 月底以来单周收益在 0.1%附近徘徊；城投重仓组合的周度收益均值降至 0.15%，较上周出现 4.3bp 的降幅，城 投哑铃型组合收益反而有所升高，同时，该策略在一季度、以及二季度至今的累计投资收益分别为-0.12%、1.85%， 均为同期中偏高读数，是今年以来攻守兼备的策略之一；二级资本债重仓组合收益小幅升高，本周收益均值与城投重 仓组合相近，其中，久期组合及混合哑铃型组合单周收益均在 0.16%以上；超长债重仓策略周度收益均值上行至 0.38% 附近，显著优于对应利率风格组合。 收益来源方面，各类策略组合票息收益有所下行，票息波动边际回升。主要策略中，城投哑铃型组合票息维持在 0.038% 以上，而城投短端下沉、 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the custom chip market, with Marvell raising its Total Addressable Market (TAM) forecast to $94 billion by 2028, driven by increasing demand for high-performance, low-power custom chips in AI infrastructure [12][14] - Micron's strong performance in HBM and data center products is expected to continue, with HBM quarterly revenue surpassing $1 billion and a TAM projection exceeding $100 billion by 2030 [15][20] - Huawei's HarmonyOS ecosystem is anticipated to enhance consumer acceptance of high-end devices, aiding in the expansion of wearable and smart home products [26] Summary by Sections AI Applications - The active usage of AI chat applications continues to rise, with notable growth in overseas applications like Claude and domestic applications such as Tongyi and Doubao [11] - Alibaba has launched the Qwen3 MLX framework, which is tailored for Apple chips, indicating a strategic move towards enhancing AI development capabilities [11] Marvell - Marvell has significantly increased its TAM forecast for custom chips, projecting a market size of $94 billion by 2028, with a focus on achieving a 20% market share in the custom computing sector [12][14] - The company has established a strong competitive edge through advanced technology in 5nm and 3nm nodes, and has secured 18 custom chip business slots with a potential lifetime revenue of $75 billion [13][14] Micron - Micron's strong growth in HBM and data center products is expected to continue, with quarterly revenue for HBM surpassing $1 billion and a TAM projection exceeding $100 billion by 2030 [15][20] - The company is the only vendor to ship LPDRAM in volume and is set to be the first to mass-produce SOCAMM, indicating a strong position in the data center DRAM market [19] Huawei - Huawei's developer conference showcased advancements in HarmonyOS, with over 800,000 developers joining the ecosystem and more than 30,000 native applications launched [24] - The introduction of the HarmonyOS 6 Beta version emphasizes cross-device collaboration and AI integration, enhancing user experience across various devices [22][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong confidence in the pharmaceutical sector, predicting a reversal trend in 2025, with innovative drugs and left-side sector reversals being the biggest investment opportunities [5][12]. Core Views - The recent adjustment in the pharmaceutical sector does not reflect any substantial changes in the industry's fundamentals. The report anticipates continued growth in the innovative drug sector, driven by upcoming academic conferences and seasonal changes in medical services and consumption [2][12]. - The report highlights significant advancements in chronic disease treatments, particularly with Eli Lilly's oral weight-loss drug Oforglipron, which has shown promising results in clinical trials [2][22]. - The report emphasizes the potential of high-end medical devices, supported by government policies aimed at fostering innovation in this area, suggesting that leading companies in specific segments are likely to benefit [33][36]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Sector - Eli Lilly's Oforglipron has demonstrated significant efficacy in reducing A1C levels and weight in type 2 diabetes patients during its Phase 3 trial, with a notable average weight loss of 16.0 pounds (7.9%) [2][22]. - The report notes that the domestic market is seeing continuous progress in chronic disease treatments, with several innovative drugs being prioritized for review by regulatory authorities [20][41]. Biologics - Sanofi and Regeneron reported positive results from the EVEREST Phase 4 trial for Dupixent, which outperformed Xolair in treating adults with chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) and asthma [24][29]. - The report suggests ongoing attention to the development of IL-4α targeted drugs, as multiple domestic companies are making strides in this area [24][32]. Medical Devices - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has initiated measures to support the innovation of high-end medical devices, which is expected to accelerate the development of domestic medical robots and advanced imaging equipment [33][36]. - The report indicates that the medical device sector is at an upward turning point, driven by an aging population and increasing healthcare demands [37]. Medical Services & Consumer Healthcare - The report discusses the initiation of a pilot program for medical service price reform in Sichuan, which aims to optimize the pricing system and reflect the value of healthcare professionals' labor [38][40]. - The report highlights the establishment of a comprehensive eye health management system by Aier Eye Hospital, showcasing advancements in healthcare service delivery [38]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report notes that since 2025, the Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE) has accepted 41 new drug IND applications for traditional Chinese medicine, indicating a supportive policy environment for innovation in this sector [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited movement in the next 3-6 months [80]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index decreased by 3.13% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The pig farming sector shows signs of recovery with a current average price of 14.22 CNY/kg, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.43% [21][22]. - The poultry farming sector is stabilizing, with white feather chicken prices at 7.12 CNY/kg, down 2.06% from the previous week [32]. - The beef and dairy sectors are experiencing price fluctuations, with live cattle prices at 26.65 CNY/kg, showing a slight decrease [41]. - The planting industry is expected to improve if there is a significant reduction in grain production due to external uncertainties [48]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2640.23 points, down 3.13% week-on-week, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.51% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.28 kg, with a slight decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week [21][22]. - The profit for self-bred pigs is 19.40 CNY/head, showing a week-on-week increase of 22.30 CNY/head [21][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.12 CNY/kg, reflecting a decrease of 2.06% [32]. - The overall price stability is attributed to balanced supply and demand [32]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices are at 26.65 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.02% [41]. - The dairy sector is seeing a decline in prices, with average milk prices at 3.04 CNY/kg, down 0.33% week-on-week [41]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2,342.86 CNY/ton, up 0.37% week-on-week [47]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if grain production decreases significantly [48]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices remain stable, with pig feed at 3.36 CNY/kg [65]. - Aquaculture prices are also stable, with various fish prices showing minimal changes [65].

分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：许孟婕（执业 S1130522080003） xumengjie＠gjzq.com.cn 联系人：王译 wangyi9@gjzq.com.cn 永辉进入规模化调改阶段，618 电商全域协同趋势明显 核心观点 线下：永辉调改店超过 100 家，调改进入规模化新阶段 2025 年 06 月 22 日 商贸零售行业研究 买入（首次评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 天猫：品牌主场，高净值用户驱动增长，国补及情绪价值品类表现亮眼；京东：全业态爆发，即时零售成亮点； 抖音电商：全域协同，中小商家崛起；快手电商：全域电商持续推进，货架场高增长；美团闪购：首次参与 618， 高单价品类爆发。 行业数据追踪 GMV 表现：根据国金数字未来 Lab，6 月第 2 周天猫+京东整体 GMV 同比-9.63%。 品类表现：根据国金数字未来 Lab，6 月第 2 周天猫+京东品类增速表现前 5 的为玩具、汽车及自行车、消费电 子、家用电器、鞋包。 2025 年 6 月 13 日，永辉全国第 100 家胖东来模 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies with high earnings growth certainty and relatively high dividend support in the domestic furniture sector, as well as certain export companies with strong growth logic or overseas production capacity advantages [4][9]. Core Insights - The furniture retail sales in China saw a year-on-year increase of 25.6% in May, with a cumulative increase of 21.4% from January to May. However, the overall order situation has weakened since June, indicating a potential fatigue in demand stimulation from national subsidies [4][9]. - In the new tobacco sector, the glo hilo product launched in Japan is expected to accelerate revenue growth in the second half of 2025, supported by strong marketing resources from BAT [4][12]. - The paper packaging sector is experiencing price stability, with a focus on growth-oriented packaging companies. The report highlights the need to monitor the performance of major paper types and the overall supply pressure in the market [4][15]. - The light consumer goods and pet sectors are seeing increased online competition, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear growth narratives and operational capabilities [4][16]. - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a rebound in the second half of the year, driven by new national standards and product launches, despite a temporary slowdown due to subsidy fund exhaustion [4][19]. Summary by Sections Furniture Sector - Domestic retail sales of furniture increased by 25.6% in May, with a cumulative increase of 21.4% from January to May. However, the order situation has weakened since June, indicating potential fatigue in demand stimulation [4][9]. - Recommended companies include Sofía, Gujia Home, Mousse, and others, focusing on those with high earnings growth certainty and dividend support [4][9]. New Tobacco - The glo hilo product launched in Japan is expected to accelerate revenue growth in the second half of 2025, with strong marketing support from BAT [4][12]. - Recommended companies include Smoore International, which is expected to benefit from the expansion of the overseas compliant market [4][12]. Paper and Packaging - The paper sector is experiencing price stability, with major paper types showing no significant improvement in orders. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring growth-oriented packaging companies [4][15]. - Recommended companies include Yutong Technology and others, focusing on those with stable operations and growth potential [4][15]. Light Consumer Goods & Pets - The light consumer goods sector is seeing increased online competition, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear growth narratives and operational capabilities [4][16]. - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet and others, focusing on those with resilient consumer demand and growth potential [4][16]. Two-Wheeler Market - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a rebound in the second half of the year, driven by new national standards and product launches, despite a temporary slowdown due to subsidy fund exhaustion [4][19]. - Recommended companies include Yadi Holdings and others, focusing on those with strong product capabilities and market expansion potential [4][19].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI/AR glasses supply chain and related industries, indicating a favorable investment environment in the second half of the year [1][13]. Core Insights - The launch of the Oakley Meta HSTN AI glasses by Meta and Oakley is expected to drive significant advancements in AI glasses applications in sports [1][13]. - The demand for AI-PCB and ASIC servers is projected to grow significantly, with strong orders reported from multiple AI-PCB companies [1][41]. - The communication sector is experiencing optimism due to the anticipated increase in AI ASIC chip shipments and the expansion of the light module market [2][43]. Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Insights - Meta and Oakley have introduced a new AI glasses model, enhancing battery life to 8 hours and video resolution to 3K, with a starting price of $399 [1][13]. - The PCB industry is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of significant growth in the second quarter driven by demand from home appliances and automotive sectors [1][15]. - The component sector is witnessing an upward trend, with increased usage of MLCCs and higher prices due to product upgrades [1][29]. Communication Industry Insights - The market is optimistic about AI ASIC penetration, with Meta planning to release a new AI ASIC chip by 2025-2026, which is expected to significantly increase shipments [2][48]. - The light module sector is set to benefit from the growing demand for AI ASICs, with several companies positioned to capture market share [2][48]. Computer Industry Insights - The computer sector is currently in a transitional phase, with expectations of improved performance in the second half of the year as new technologies and products are introduced [3][41]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of major companies as they adapt to macroeconomic conditions and potential recovery in demand [3][41].

本期 30/10Y 国债换手率、配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值下降幅度相对较大，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换 手率、政策利差分位值不同程度回升。 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量上升至 5 个（占比 25%）、位于中性区间的指标数量下降至 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 9 个（占比 45%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，1/10Y 换手率由中性区间升至过 热区间，市场利差则由中性区间降至偏冷区间。 分类别来看，①本期交易热度指标中，仅 30/10Y 国债换手率分位值下降 28 个百分点，其余指标分位值均回升，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值分别上升 21、22、10 个百分点，交易热度分位均值上升 4 个百分点。 ②机构行为类中，配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值分别下降 22、17 个百分点，其余指标分位值均小幅回升， 机构行为均值回落 4 个百分点。③市场利差回落 1 个百分点，政策利差分位值回升 11 个百分点，利差分位均值回升 5 个百分点。④股债比价分位值回落 2 个百分点，商品比价分位值上升 1 个百分点，其余比价指标变动不大， ...