Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies with high earnings growth certainty and relatively high dividend support in the domestic furniture sector, as well as certain export companies with strong growth logic or overseas production capacity advantages [4][9]. Core Insights - The furniture retail sales in China saw a year-on-year increase of 25.6% in May, with a cumulative increase of 21.4% from January to May. However, the overall order situation has weakened since June, indicating a potential fatigue in demand stimulation from national subsidies [4][9]. - In the new tobacco sector, the glo hilo product launched in Japan is expected to accelerate revenue growth in the second half of 2025, supported by strong marketing resources from BAT [4][12]. - The paper packaging sector is experiencing price stability, with a focus on growth-oriented packaging companies. The report highlights the need to monitor the performance of major paper types and the overall supply pressure in the market [4][15]. - The light consumer goods and pet sectors are seeing increased online competition, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear growth narratives and operational capabilities [4][16]. - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a rebound in the second half of the year, driven by new national standards and product launches, despite a temporary slowdown due to subsidy fund exhaustion [4][19]. Summary by Sections Furniture Sector - Domestic retail sales of furniture increased by 25.6% in May, with a cumulative increase of 21.4% from January to May. However, the order situation has weakened since June, indicating potential fatigue in demand stimulation [4][9]. - Recommended companies include Sofía, Gujia Home, Mousse, and others, focusing on those with high earnings growth certainty and dividend support [4][9]. New Tobacco - The glo hilo product launched in Japan is expected to accelerate revenue growth in the second half of 2025, with strong marketing support from BAT [4][12]. - Recommended companies include Smoore International, which is expected to benefit from the expansion of the overseas compliant market [4][12]. Paper and Packaging - The paper sector is experiencing price stability, with major paper types showing no significant improvement in orders. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring growth-oriented packaging companies [4][15]. - Recommended companies include Yutong Technology and others, focusing on those with stable operations and growth potential [4][15]. Light Consumer Goods & Pets - The light consumer goods sector is seeing increased online competition, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear growth narratives and operational capabilities [4][16]. - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet and others, focusing on those with resilient consumer demand and growth potential [4][16]. Two-Wheeler Market - The two-wheeler market is expected to see a rebound in the second half of the year, driven by new national standards and product launches, despite a temporary slowdown due to subsidy fund exhaustion [4][19]. - Recommended companies include Yadi Holdings and others, focusing on those with strong product capabilities and market expansion potential [4][19].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI/AR glasses supply chain and related industries, indicating a favorable investment environment in the second half of the year [1][13]. Core Insights - The launch of the Oakley Meta HSTN AI glasses by Meta and Oakley is expected to drive significant advancements in AI glasses applications in sports [1][13]. - The demand for AI-PCB and ASIC servers is projected to grow significantly, with strong orders reported from multiple AI-PCB companies [1][41]. - The communication sector is experiencing optimism due to the anticipated increase in AI ASIC chip shipments and the expansion of the light module market [2][43]. Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Insights - Meta and Oakley have introduced a new AI glasses model, enhancing battery life to 8 hours and video resolution to 3K, with a starting price of $399 [1][13]. - The PCB industry is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of significant growth in the second quarter driven by demand from home appliances and automotive sectors [1][15]. - The component sector is witnessing an upward trend, with increased usage of MLCCs and higher prices due to product upgrades [1][29]. Communication Industry Insights - The market is optimistic about AI ASIC penetration, with Meta planning to release a new AI ASIC chip by 2025-2026, which is expected to significantly increase shipments [2][48]. - The light module sector is set to benefit from the growing demand for AI ASICs, with several companies positioned to capture market share [2][48]. Computer Industry Insights - The computer sector is currently in a transitional phase, with expectations of improved performance in the second half of the year as new technologies and products are introduced [3][41]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of major companies as they adapt to macroeconomic conditions and potential recovery in demand [3][41].

本期 30/10Y 国债换手率、配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值下降幅度相对较大，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换 手率、政策利差分位值不同程度回升。 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量上升至 5 个（占比 25%）、位于中性区间的指标数量下降至 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 9 个（占比 45%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，1/10Y 换手率由中性区间升至过 热区间，市场利差则由中性区间降至偏冷区间。 分类别来看，①本期交易热度指标中，仅 30/10Y 国债换手率分位值下降 28 个百分点，其余指标分位值均回升，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值分别上升 21、22、10 个百分点，交易热度分位均值上升 4 个百分点。 ②机构行为类中，配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值分别下降 22、17 个百分点，其余指标分位值均小幅回升， 机构行为均值回落 4 个百分点。③市场利差回落 1 个百分点，政策利差分位值回升 11 个百分点，利差分位均值回升 5 个百分点。④股债比价分位值回落 2 个百分点，商品比价分位值上升 1 个百分点，其余比价指标变动不大， ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI/AR glasses industry and related supply chains, indicating a strong growth potential in the second half of the year [1][4]. Core Insights - Meta's launch of the AI glasses Oakley Meta HSTN is expected to drive deep applications in sports like skiing and cycling, with significant hardware upgrades and AI functionalities [1][5]. - The demand for AI-PCB is projected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing orders from multiple AI-PCB companies and the expansion of domestic copper-clad laminate manufacturers [1][4]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with strong growth expected in the storage segment due to rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [21][23]. Summary by Sections Consumer Electronics - Meta and Oakley's new AI glasses are set to enhance the application of AI in sports, with features like 8-hour battery life and 3K video resolution [1][5]. - The report anticipates a new wave of innovation in AI consumer electronics, particularly in AR glasses [5]. PCB Industry - The PCB industry is showing signs of accelerated growth, particularly in the copper-clad laminate sector, with expectations of significant quarter-on-quarter growth [7][4]. - The report highlights the positive outlook for the PCB industry, driven by demand from home appliances, automotive, and AI applications [7]. Semiconductor Industry - The storage segment is expected to see a price increase due to reduced supply and increased demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [21][23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials in light of global supply chain challenges [24][28]. Key Companies - Companies like Nvidia, which are actively increasing orders for AI-related products, are expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI-PCB and computing hardware [32][33]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are positioned to gain market share due to the ongoing trend of localization and self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain [35][36].

建议关注国内生成式大模型龙头科大讯飞；AI 硬件有望成为应用落地的新载体，建议关注萤石网络、虹软科技 等；AI 相关功能打磨能够带动 C 端应用月活量、付费率提升，建议关注金山办公、万兴科技等。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧的风险；技术研发进度不及预期的风险；特定行业下游资本开支周期性波动的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 6 月 17 日，MiniMax 启动「MiniMax Week」技术周活动，陆续发布了多个成果：发布并开源的 MiniMax-M1 模 型采用了 Lightning Attention 机制的混合注意力架构，以高性价比和超长上下文处理能力引发行业关注。海螺 2.0 版本能够处理极端物理情况，在成本效率上创造了新的纪录。通用智能体 MiniMaxAgent 具备多步骤规划和分解 的能力，已在团队内部广泛使用。6 月 18 日，Midiourney 发布 AI 视频生成模型 V1，可将静态图像转化为动态 视频。自动模式下，AI 将自动生成动作提示词以驱动图像运动；手动模式则允许用户通过文本描述精确控制视频 中的动画效果。V1 支持分别适用于静态场景和动态场景的「低运动」和「高运动」两种模式。从 ...

风险提示 本周观点 关注海外资产的季报变化： 投资逻辑 法律框架逐步完善，虚拟资产趋势向上。1）港股整体观点：今年港股整体表现突出，各种板块、概念层出不穷， 底层逻辑来自于便宜资产的长期低估，大量内地优质资产在港 IPO，提升了港股的资产质量，吸引了全球流动资 金的关注、加持。另外，去美元化的全球投资策略和美国降息预期对港股的流动性利好。据此我们对港股的未来 趋势持续乐观。短期层面，由于估值、国际环境等问题，港股不排除震荡或者回调的风险，特别是对于前期涨幅 较大&估值较高的个股，短期回调属于健康调整。2）目前我们持续看多虚拟资产（含稳定币）的发展，近期包括 蚂蚁、META、贝莱德在内的传统互联网、金融机构向虚拟资产和稳定币延申的趋势明显。我们认为，稳定币政策 只是虚拟资产大趋势下的一环，未来还会有更多政策制度出台，持续看好。美国、香港的虚拟资产相关法律框架 逐步完善，虚拟资产趋势向上。 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：K12 教培行业高景气维持，非学科产品合规优 ...

证券板块 证监会将推动落实一揽子举措深化科创改革，有利于增强资本市场活力、促进创投行业发展。证监会主席吴清在 2025 陆家嘴论坛的主旨演讲中表示，证监会将推动落实深化科创改革的一揽子举措。其核心在于强化多层次资本市场枢纽 功能，促进科技创新与产业创新深度融合。我们预计相关举措落地后，将进一步畅通"科技-资本-产业"良性循环， 为科创企业提供有力支持，并显著增强资本市场活力，创投行业有望直接受益。 投资建议：建议关注四条主线：（1）港交所：ADT 增长有望驱动业绩与估值提升（25/05 ADT 为 2103 亿元，同比+50%； 累计 ADT 为 2423 亿元；截至 25/05 末上市公司数量 2633 家，同比+23 家）。（2）四川双马：创投行业或会迎来进一步 政策催化，科技赛道占优，创投业务有望受益。公司管理基金的已投项目——奕斯伟科技（2024/12/24 状态更新为已 问询）、奕斯伟计算技术（2025/5/30 向港交所递交上市申请）、邦德激光（高端装备，2024/1/3 进行上市辅导备案）、 屹唐半导体（2025/3/13 证监会批复注册）、群核科技（"杭州六小龙"之一，2025/2/14 向港 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The nuclear fusion sector is entering a period of intensive capital expenditure, with ongoing tenders for auxiliary power systems, suggesting significant investment opportunities in related companies [6][24] - The "marine economy" and "deep-sea technology" policies are emerging, highlighting the importance of high-end marine equipment manufacturing, particularly in shipbuilding and deep-sea robotics [6][25] - Demand for forklifts is slightly better than expected, with sales in May reaching 123,472 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, indicating potential growth in the smart logistics and robotics sectors [6][25] - The general machinery sector is experiencing a slowdown, while engineering machinery shows a stable upward trend, and railway equipment is also on the rise [26][36][47] Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 2.16% in the week of June 16-20, 2025, ranking 19th among 31 primary industry categories [3][14] - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 3.75%, ranking 8th among the same categories [3][18] Key Data Tracking - General machinery is experiencing a downturn, with May manufacturing PMI at 49.5, indicating a contraction [26] - Engineering machinery sales in May reached 18,200 units, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, indicating a stable market [36] - Railway fixed asset investment and passenger volume are both showing positive growth, suggesting a recovery in demand [47] Industry Dynamics - The nuclear fusion sector is seeing significant capital investment, with individual experimental pile projects costing tens to hundreds of billions [6][24] - The marine economy is being prioritized by government policies, with a focus on shipbuilding and deep-sea technology [6][25] - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with potential for recovery driven by geopolitical factors and OPEC's production decisions [51] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks to watch include Hezhong Intelligent, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, China Shipbuilding, and China CRRC, among others [12]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the outdoor apparel sector, particularly with the anticipated IPO of Berghaus, which is expected to boost market sentiment [10][19]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector showed strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands gaining momentum and top brands maintaining a stable market position [1]. - Berghaus, a leading high-performance outdoor apparel brand, reported a revenue of 1.766 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 94.5% year-on-year increase, with a three-year CAGR of 116% [2][11]. - The report highlights the growth of domestic beauty brands during the 618 festival, with significant sales increases across various platforms [1][2]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales in May showed a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, aided by favorable weather and the early 618 promotions [20][23]. - The report tracks various industry segments, indicating a stable upward trend in outdoor sports, beauty, and medical aesthetics sectors, while other segments like textile raw materials are under slight pressure [3]. Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, the report recommends brands like Hailan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and has strong profitability potential [4][31]. - In the beauty sector, it suggests focusing on companies like Juzhi Biotechnology and Jinbo Biotechnology, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [4][31]. Market Review and News - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector experienced a decline of 5.12% in the recent week, with specific companies like Li Ning and Fengzhu Textile showing positive performance [5][27]. - It also highlights the digital transformation initiatives in the textile industry, aiming for over 70% digitalization in key business processes by 2027 [33].

国补后续 1320 亿资金将于 7 月、10 月分批下达，618 拉动下 5 月双线零售高增 部分地区补贴额度紧张，6 月以来国补进入调整阶段。据国家发改委、财政部等，25 年计划向地方安排 3000 亿元国 债资金加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，上半年共向地方下达 1620 亿中央资金以支持消费品以旧换新。截至 5 月 31 日， 国补资金消耗总额达 1550-1650 亿，约占到全年规模 50%左右。受国补资金消耗偏快影响，6 月起，部分区域如重庆、 江苏、广东、湖北等宣布国补政策进入阶段性调整。 下半年国补接续已确定，剩余资金将于 7 月、10 月下达。据国家发改委、财政部，上半年共下达 1620 亿资金支持以 旧换新，剩余 1380 亿将于 7 月、10 月分批下达，确保各地于 7 月陆续重启申领。据各地政府/商务厅通知，重庆第二 阶段政策已在起草过程中，江苏恢复线上申领并实施每日限额策略，广东部分城市恢复线下操作，湖北也将于 6 月下 旬恢复。此外，下半年补贴或通过分领域、分时段等方案细化资金的使用方式，确保政策更加平稳有序、资金均衡使 用至年底。 618 拉动下家电 5 月线上、线下零售继续提速。20 ...