Group 1 - The report highlights the selection framework for sectors based on prosperity and structural changes, identifying high-growth potential in the gold and jewelry sector due to stable gold prices and shifting consumer demographics towards younger, fashion-oriented brands [4][24][28] - The beauty and personal care sector is noted for its strong performance driven by new trends and product innovations, despite a slowdown in content e-commerce channel growth [4][38] - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing growth through channel transformations and product iterations, with specific companies recommended based on their product-driven or channel-driven strategies [4][47][51] Group 2 - The jewelry sector has shown a significant increase, with a 36.41% rise in the index since the beginning of 2025, driven by the emergence of new brands targeting younger consumers [16][24] - The beauty care sector has also performed well, with an 11.26% increase in the index, outperforming the broader market, particularly through the success of domestic beauty brands [16][37] - The textile and apparel sector has seen a modest increase of 5.22%, with brand apparel outperforming upstream manufacturing, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [9][47] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation methodology for new consumer brands, suggesting that traditional metrics like PEG may not apply due to the rapid changes in these companies [5][62] - New consumer companies are expected to experience rapid valuation increases in three stages: breaking into new markets, continuous innovation, and establishing a stable high valuation [5][62] - The report identifies specific companies within the gold jewelry sector, such as潮宏基, that are successfully targeting younger demographics and adapting to market trends [70][71] Group 4 - The report indicates that the gold jewelry market is experiencing a U-shaped recovery in demand, with a projected 14.13% year-on-year increase in retail sales for the second half of 2025 [26][28] - The changing demographics in gold consumption are highlighted, with younger consumers increasingly contributing to sales, shifting the focus from traditional investment to emotional value [31][32] - The beauty care sector is seeing growth driven by new ingredients and trends, particularly in the medical beauty segment, which is outpacing traditional categories [38][43] Group 5 - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector is in a weak recovery phase, with retail sales growth lagging behind overall consumption trends, but with potential for improvement [47][51] - The report discusses the impact of new retail formats and product innovations in the apparel sector, indicating a need for brands to adapt to changing consumer demands [51][53] - The report emphasizes the importance of channel differentiation for companies in the beauty and personal care sector, with successful brands leveraging online and offline strategies to capture market share [80][81]

2025/6/25 1 4 • 农业投资建议关注以下几条主线：1.追寻涨价品种驱动板块盈利好转，例如肉牛、原粮等产品价格的上涨；2. 政策供给端改革驱动养殖板块周期进程加速，以及产能平稳后行业平均利润的提升；3.养殖后周期需求：下 游养殖端绝对存量的好转驱动销量回升。4.外部环境扰动下的避险需求。 • 牧业：肉牛价格拐点向上，奶牛周期底部企稳。2023年中肉牛养殖开始陷入亏损阶段，行业整体去化幅度预 计超过10%，行业产能的去化逐步传导至终端供给，春节后肉牛犊牛与母牛价格已经开始上涨，看好肉牛大周 期。奶价自2021年中开始见顶回落，行业自2024年开始去产能，长期亏损下2025H2产能去化有望加速，在产 能持续下降的背景下预计2026年奶价开始上行。 • 生猪养殖：重视供给侧政策，布局优质龙头企业。2025年生猪养殖行业处于下行微利阶段且供给前低后高， 预计下半年行业有望出现亏损去产能，而供给侧改革驱动行业主动去产能，中期看行业产能有望维持在较低 位置从而提升龙头企业中枢盈利水平。 • 肉禽养殖：供给存在阶段扰动，静待需求好转。黄羽鸡：年初以来黄鸡价格表现疲软，目前整体产能处于低 位且需求端出现筑底回升，随 ...

分析师：姚 遥 执业编号：S1130512080001 联系人：彭治强 2025/6/24 1 2 核心观点：短中长期逻辑兼备， 坚定看好风电板块性机会 需求内强外盛，景气持续向上 6 3 • 当前时点，我们认为风电板块具备值得坚定看好的短、中、长期三重逻辑： • 短期逻辑：强势半年报及下半年业绩展望。年中市场关注度逐渐聚焦企业半年报，风电板块受益于上半年国内项目开工旺盛、 两海收入占比提升、部分零部件提价落地等因素，预计Q2业绩同环比增长普遍乐观，部分在25Q1即展现业绩改善弹性公司的强 势股价表现，对板块形成积极示范效应，且有望在半年报前后向整个风电板块扩散。 • 中期逻辑（核心）：此前造成风电板块投资体感较差的三大因素，在过去半年到一年内均出现明显反转。 • 1）风机价格战带动的产业链通缩转向通胀：因风机快速大型化及价格战，21-24年国内陆风机组价格从3000-4000元/kW快速下降至 1000-2000元/kW，带动上游零部件、塔筒等环节一起通缩；然而，伴随大型化趋缓、企业自律、业主对风机质量和运维成本重视 度提升，风机价格从24Q4开始持续回暖，我们统计25年4-5月陆风机组中标均价较24年全年 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival saw a significant increase, with total online retail sales reaching nearly 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [4][5] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program is expected to see a decline in funding in certain regions, with central government funds being allocated in the third and fourth quarters [6] - South Korea's exports rebounded significantly in the first 20 days of June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, driven mainly by semiconductor exports [9] - The real estate market shows weak performance in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with second-hand housing sales becoming the dominant force [11] - Rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in crude oil prices, reaching $78.9 per barrel, a 24.5% increase since the end of May [14] Summary by Sections E-commerce Growth - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 began on May 13, one week earlier than in 2024, leading to a notable increase in sales driven by government subsidies [4] - Total e-commerce sales during the event reached 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and 3C digital products [5] Old-for-New Subsidy Program - The central government plans to allocate approximately 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" program in the second half of the year, with an average monthly usage of around 23 billion yuan [6] South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports in June showed a strong recovery, particularly in semiconductors, which accounted for 22.9% of total exports [9] - Exports to the EU increased by 23.5%, while exports to China saw a slight decline of 1.0% [10] Real Estate Market Trends - The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes remains weak, with second-hand homes accounting for 58.2% of sales in major cities [11] - The average weekly transaction area for new homes in major cities was 300,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% [11] Crude Oil Price Trends - Crude oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a direct impact on domestic inflation indicators [14]

证券研究报告 2025/06/23 1 三大投资主线： 龙头。 风险提示：国内外需求波动的风险、行业竞争加剧、汇率波动风险、关税风险 2 家电新消费：看好新产品形态、新行业阶段两类投资机会。1、新产品形态：重点看好极具成长潜力的手持智能影像赛道；2、 新行业阶段：看好高成长潜力+国产品牌全球份额快速扩张的扫地机板块。 家电新制造：看好主业基本面扎实，布局机器人方向的优质企业。 业绩稳健增长的黑白电龙头：1、看好高股息+业绩稳定性高的白电龙头。2、看好产品结构升级带动利润率持续改善的黑电 3 板块复盘 4 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 有色金属 银行 传媒 美容护理 汽车 医药生物 机械设备 农林牧渔 环保 基础化工 国防军工 计算机 通信 纺织服饰 综合 轻工制造 社会服务 钢铁 公用事业 电子 交通运输 石油石化 家用电器 建筑材料 非银金融 建筑装饰 电力设备 商贸零售 食品饮料 房地产 煤炭 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 白色家电 黑色家电 小家电 厨卫电器 照明设备Ⅱ 家电零部件Ⅱ 绝对涨跌幅（% ...

Group 1: Virtual Assets and Stablecoins - The trend of virtual assets is continuously improving due to the enhancement of regulatory frameworks and increased institutional participation, with expectations of liquidity easing [2][18][25] - The global stablecoin market is projected to grow significantly, from approximately $5 billion in 2020 to around $200 billion by the end of 2024, indicating a clear expansion path for trading scenarios [25][26] - Various regions are implementing stablecoin policies, such as the U.S. passing the "Genius Act" and Hong Kong enacting the "Stablecoin Ordinance," which will take effect on August 1, 2025 [25][29] Group 2: Streaming Platforms - Music streaming platforms are identified as high-quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with continuous scale effects driving profit leverage [2] - The market for music subscriptions is expected to grow, with major players like Spotify and Tencent Music holding significant market shares [33] Group 3: O2O Service Platforms - The trend of strong players becoming stronger is evident, with major platforms like Beike and Tuhu expected to increase market share amid a shrinking real estate and automotive aftermarket demand [2][39] - The used housing transaction volume in key cities showed a month-on-month decline, indicating a buyer's market, which may benefit established platforms [39] Group 4: Coffee, Tea, and E-commerce Delivery Platforms - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, indicating a competitive landscape where marketing expenses are rising [2][56] - The coffee and tea segment is highlighted as a key beneficiary in the delivery battle, with significant growth in order volumes and city coverage [68][75] Group 5: K12 Education and Training - The K12 education sector is experiencing a resurgence in non-subject training demand, with a significant reduction in subject-based training institutions, leading to a scarcity of quality compliant products [2][86] - Major players in the K12 sector, such as New Oriental and TAL Education, are showing strong performance with revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [91]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry [6] Core Insights - The hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase in 2025, with significant advancements in fuel cell vehicles and green hydrogen projects [5] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on hydrogen and fuel cell manufacturing as the main investment lines, recommending specific companies for attention [5] Industry Data Review - In May, the installed capacity of fuel cell systems reached 333.30 MW, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%, primarily due to delays in the promotion of demonstration city clusters [12] - The cumulative installed capacity from January to May 2025 was 255.58 MW, reflecting a 7% year-on-year decline, indicating cyclical fluctuations in the industry [12] - Fuel cell vehicle insurance registrations in May were 122 units, down 84.26% year-on-year, with a total of 1,367 units registered from January to May 2025, a decrease of 33.2% [20] - The report notes that the Guangdong demonstration city cluster led in vehicle deployment with 83 units in May, while the cumulative deployment from January to May was 332 units [35] Company Performance - YunTao Hydrogen Energy ranked first in May with an installed capacity of 22,010 kW, accounting for 66% of the market, followed by Dongfang Electric and Hyundai [23] - In terms of vehicle insurance, SANY Automotive led in May with 62 units, representing 50.8% of the market share [32] - Cumulatively, from January to May 2025, China National Heavy Duty Truck ranked first in insurance registrations with 510 units, followed by Hyundai with 204 units [32] Green Hydrogen Projects - Green hydrogen demonstration projects have seen a total of 788.76 MW tendered, a 35% year-on-year increase, indicating a growing interest in large-scale projects [42] - The cumulative planned capacity for green hydrogen projects has reached 6.61 million tons, with an operational rate of 31.6% [50] Policy Developments - The report outlines that multiple supportive policies have been introduced at both national and local levels to accelerate the commercialization of hydrogen energy [36][38] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved seven hydrogen industry standards, effective from November 1, 2025, to facilitate the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles [40]

又见久期行情极致演绎。 中债 10 年以上隐含评级 AA+全价指数近一周涨幅达到 0.9%，月内累计涨幅高达 1.5%。另一方面，交易所超长信用债 表现亦不俗，中证信用债 7 年至 10 年 AAA 等级指数周度涨幅在 0.43%。 本轮超长信用债如何被炒作？ 首先从银行间样本来观察，有四点特征：1）抢配节奏显著加快，成交收益下行幅度加大，2）20 年至 30 年活跃交易 信用债主体，银行间存量券 6 月单月平均涨幅在 2%至 3%之间，3）5 年 AA+城投债策略在最近两周持续跑赢其他组合， 4）成交量进一步印证炒作逻辑。其次，交易所抢配信用债同样强劲，值得注意的是，本轮行情有交易所超长信用债联 动银行间个券的特征。 两个市场，行情触发点不同。 截至 6 月 20 日，1 年以上信用债 63%存量规模集中在 2%以下，而 1 月初水平约在 59%，要在 2%以上做收益，势必要在 中长久期资产布局。银行间和交易所同时演绎久期行情，逻辑是否一致？一方面，从银行间 7 年以上信用债净买入交 易对手来看，保险和基金是主力。其中，基金近两周净买入规模持续增长，单周读数超过 73 亿，超过保险的边际增 量。另一方面，交 ...

一、组合策略收益跟踪 本周模拟组合走势依旧分化，除部分信用风格组合外，多数策略收益降低。利率风格组合中，城投超长型、二级超长 型策略组合收益相对靠前，分别达到 0.2%、0.15%；信用风格组合中，城投超长型、二级超长型策略组合收益居于前 列，读数分别为 0.59%、0.37%。 分重仓券种看，信用债重仓策略收益普遍超过利率债重仓组合。信用风格存单重仓组合周度收益平均下行 0.7bp，且 自 5 月底以来单周收益在 0.1%附近徘徊；城投重仓组合的周度收益均值降至 0.15%，较上周出现 4.3bp 的降幅，城 投哑铃型组合收益反而有所升高，同时，该策略在一季度、以及二季度至今的累计投资收益分别为-0.12%、1.85%， 均为同期中偏高读数，是今年以来攻守兼备的策略之一；二级资本债重仓组合收益小幅升高，本周收益均值与城投重 仓组合相近，其中，久期组合及混合哑铃型组合单周收益均在 0.16%以上；超长债重仓策略周度收益均值上行至 0.38% 附近，显著优于对应利率风格组合。 收益来源方面，各类策略组合票息收益有所下行，票息波动边际回升。主要策略中，城投哑铃型组合票息维持在 0.038% 以上，而城投短端下沉、 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the custom chip market, with Marvell raising its Total Addressable Market (TAM) forecast to $94 billion by 2028, driven by increasing demand for high-performance, low-power custom chips in AI infrastructure [12][14] - Micron's strong performance in HBM and data center products is expected to continue, with HBM quarterly revenue surpassing $1 billion and a TAM projection exceeding $100 billion by 2030 [15][20] - Huawei's HarmonyOS ecosystem is anticipated to enhance consumer acceptance of high-end devices, aiding in the expansion of wearable and smart home products [26] Summary by Sections AI Applications - The active usage of AI chat applications continues to rise, with notable growth in overseas applications like Claude and domestic applications such as Tongyi and Doubao [11] - Alibaba has launched the Qwen3 MLX framework, which is tailored for Apple chips, indicating a strategic move towards enhancing AI development capabilities [11] Marvell - Marvell has significantly increased its TAM forecast for custom chips, projecting a market size of $94 billion by 2028, with a focus on achieving a 20% market share in the custom computing sector [12][14] - The company has established a strong competitive edge through advanced technology in 5nm and 3nm nodes, and has secured 18 custom chip business slots with a potential lifetime revenue of $75 billion [13][14] Micron - Micron's strong growth in HBM and data center products is expected to continue, with quarterly revenue for HBM surpassing $1 billion and a TAM projection exceeding $100 billion by 2030 [15][20] - The company is the only vendor to ship LPDRAM in volume and is set to be the first to mass-produce SOCAMM, indicating a strong position in the data center DRAM market [19] Huawei - Huawei's developer conference showcased advancements in HarmonyOS, with over 800,000 developers joining the ecosystem and more than 30,000 native applications launched [24] - The introduction of the HarmonyOS 6 Beta version emphasizes cross-device collaboration and AI integration, enhancing user experience across various devices [22][24]