1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, it is a good window for non - bank institutions to take long positions. They should maintain long - term durations and seize the bull market around the end of the quarter. It is expected that long - term bond yields will hit new lows around the end of the quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall to the 1.4% - 1.5% level in the third quarter [6][21]. 3. Summary by Related Content Bond Market Performance - This week, the bond market continued to strengthen in a volatile manner, with more significant declines in the yields of non - active varieties. The overnight rate remained around 1.4%, and R007 stayed within 1.6%. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.4bps and 1.2bps to 1.64% and 1.84% respectively. The yields of other varieties declined more notably, such as the 1 - year certificate of deposit yield dropping by 3.3bps to 1.64%, and the yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds falling by 2.7bps and 2.4bps to 1.81% and 1.91% last week [1][9]. Narrowing of Yield Spreads - Recently, non - active bonds or non - active varieties have outperformed active bonds or active varieties, with significant narrowing of relevant yield spreads. For example, the yield of the 50 - year Treasury bond dropped from 2.08% at the end of last month to 1.95% on June 20, a decrease of 12.3bps, and the yield spread between the 50 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds narrowed by 6.4bps. The yield spread between 30 - year local government bonds and Treasury bonds also narrowed by 2.8bps this week, and the yield spread between 10 - year AAA medium - term notes and 10 - year Treasury bonds narrowed by 4.2bps to 41.4bps last week. The yield spread between non - active and active bonds also significantly narrowed, such as the spread between the 30 - year active bond (2500002.IB) and the second - active bond (2400006.IB) narrowing by 2.2bps this week. The narrowing is mainly due to two reasons: first, after the yields approach previous lows, key varieties receive more attention, and before key points are broken through, the market compresses non - active varieties and tenors; second, strong long - buying sentiment and improved liquidity of relevant varieties compress the premium of ultra - long bonds, which is most evident in the 50 - year Treasury bond [2][10]. Selling Pressure from Banks - If the market space is to be further expanded, active varieties need to break through key points, which may occur around the end of this quarter. The key force is banks, especially city and rural commercial banks. Due to the pressure of quarter - end indicator assessments such as average duration and liquidity indicators, as well as the need to realize floating profits when banks' profitability is insufficient, banks usually face significant bond - selling pressure at the quarter - end. Currently, small and medium - sized banks may face greater selling pressure than large - sized banks. On one hand, the central bank's care for liquidity and the significant decline in the liability costs of large - sized banks have alleviated their pressure; on the other hand, the profitability of small and medium - sized banks may be weaker than that of large - sized banks. In the first quarter, the year - on - year net profit growth rate of city commercial banks declined the most, at - 6.7%, while those of joint - stock banks and rural commercial banks were - 4.5% and - 2.0% respectively, and large - sized banks had a slight positive growth of 0.1%. Seasonally, small and medium - sized banks usually reduce their bond holdings in May or June, and this reduction is more obvious considering government bond supply. They will then increase their bond allocations in July and August [3][13]. Asset Shortage Situation - The current market is in an asset shortage situation. On one hand, the supply of government bonds is slowing down, and it is expected to slow down in the second half of the year. From the perspective of year - on - year increase, government bonds may enter a stage of year - on - year decrease in the third quarter. Due to the accelerated credit投放 in the previous period and the increase in real interest rates, the credit rhythm has also slowed down, as reflected by the year - on - year decrease in new credit in April and May of the second quarter. On the other hand, the supply of funds remains abundant, and the liability side of banks remains stable. The current capital price is significantly lower than the same period in previous years, and even when the quarter - end shock occurs, the funds are not significantly tightened. The liability side of small and medium - sized banks is stable, with a deposit growth rate of 7.7% in May, an increase from April, indicating that small and medium - sized banks are generally under - allocated in the context of asset shortage [4][16]. Future Bond - Buying Behavior of Banks - For banks, the bonds sold before the quarter - end may be bought back after the quarter - end. Small and medium - sized banks find it difficult to continuously sell bonds in the context of asset shortage. After the quarter - end indicator pressure eases, banks are more likely to buy back bonds. If not, the funds obtained from selling bonds will continue to exist in the form of excess reserves or short - term capital lending, which will lead to looser funds after the quarter - end, and the capital price may fall more than expected. The decline in short - term interest rates will lead to a steeper yield curve and increase the cost - effectiveness of long - term bonds. In a market where supply is lower than demand, the shift of small and medium - sized banks from large - scale selling to buying may lead to a further rapid strengthening of the market, and bond yields may experience a new downward trend [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing a demand season that is not significantly weak, supported by delayed renovations in the second-hand housing market [2] - The glass market is facing a contradiction between supply and demand, with a continuous decline in demand expected post-2025, although there has been marginal improvement since March [2] - The cement industry is in a phase of seeking a bottom, with increased off-peak production efforts by companies, leading to fluctuating prices around unprofitable levels [2] - The fiberglass market has shown signs of bottoming out, with price wars ending and prices beginning to recover, particularly in the wind power sector [2] - Carbon fiber demand is slowly recovering, with growth expected in downstream sectors such as wind power and hydrogen bottles [2] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of June 20, 2025, the national cement price index is 362.67 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous week, with a total cement output of 2.781 million tons, a decrease of 2.88% [3][16] - The cement market is currently in a phase of "weak reality" and "weak expectations," with potential for weak recovery by the end of Q3 if policies are strengthened or the rainy season ends [16] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1209.75 yuan/ton, down 1.64% from the previous week, with inventory levels increasing [32] - The market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations downward, with ongoing challenges in meeting demand during the seasonal downturn [32] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving has shown a stable decline, with demand for high-end products like wind power yarn performing relatively well [6] - The overall price of fiberglass is expected to maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remains stable, with a weekly production of 1781 tons and an operating rate of 60.13% [7] - The industry continues to face losses, with a production cost of 106,500 yuan/ton and a negative gross margin [7] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Beixin Building Materials (Buy), Weixing New Materials (Overweight), and China Jushi (Buy) with respective EPS forecasts for 2024A to 2027E [8]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 宏观定期 政策半月观—下半年政策有 4 大节点 近半月，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，陆家嘴论坛召开。我们对每 半月重大政策进行跟踪：1）中央、部委重要会议与政策；2）地方政策；3） 行业与产业政策。本期为近半月（2025.6.9-6.22）的政策跟踪。 核心结论：总体看，近半月政策延续聚焦稳增长、扩内需，具体有 6 大焦点： 一是 6.9-10 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在伦敦举行，聚焦关税和稀土，本次 会议后中美关税水平保持现状，但随着 7.9（对全球）和 8.12（对中国）两个 暂缓期结束，继续紧盯后续美国与中国、欧盟等关税谈判。二是 6.17 总书记 出席第二节中国-中亚峰会并作主旨发言，继 4 月东南亚之行、5 月访问俄罗 斯，6 月来到中亚，也是今年以来第三次元首出访聚焦周边，此次峰会聚焦共 建"一带一路"、人员往来便利化、绿色矿产、贸易畅通等领域。三是 6.18 陆 家嘴论坛开幕，"一行一会一局"一把手出席开幕式并发表主题演讲，其中， 央行将在上海实施 8 项金融开放政策，金监总局聚焦支持上海金融开放，证 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the stablecoin and RWA sectors [6]. Core Insights - The competition in the stablecoin market is intensifying, particularly in Hong Kong, with major players like JD.com and Ant Group actively seeking licenses to issue stablecoins [10][11]. - The global stablecoin market has seen explosive growth, with a total market capitalization reaching approximately $230.74 billion as of June 1, 2025, representing a staggering increase of about 5745.88% since 2019 [42]. - The RWA (Real World Asset) market is also expanding rapidly, with a total market size of around $23 billion, showing a growth rate of 6.4% over the past month [49]. Summary by Sections Stablecoin Development - The Hong Kong government is advancing its stablecoin policy, with the "Stablecoin Ordinance" set to take effect on August 1, 2025, allowing qualified applicants to issue stablecoins [9][31]. - Major companies like JD.com and Ant Group are in the process of applying for stablecoin licenses, aiming to leverage blockchain technology for cross-border payments and other financial services [11][16]. RWA Market Growth - The RWA market is projected to accelerate with multiple projects launching in 2024, covering sectors such as energy and agriculture [44]. - Notable projects include Ant Group's collaboration with Longxin Group for financing based on renewable energy assets, marking a significant step in the RWA space [22][45]. Industry Players and Infrastructure - Key players in the stablecoin infrastructure include ZhongAn Online, Sifang Technology, and others, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand for stablecoin solutions [52]. - The report highlights the involvement of local Hong Kong entities like Standard Chartered Bank in forming joint ventures to issue stablecoins, indicating a collaborative approach to market entry [29][27].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 电力 火电出力由降转增，1-5 月绿电交易电量增长近 50% 本周行情回顾：本周（6.16-6.20）上证指数报收 3359.90 点，下跌 0.51%，沪深 300 指数 报收 3846.64 点，下跌 0.45%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2913.94 点，下跌 1.14%， 跑输沪深 300 指数 0.68pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 11 位。 本周行业观点： ➢ 5 月火电发电增速由负转正，水电降幅扩大。根据国家统计局发布数据，5 月份全国 规上发电量 7378 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.5%，增速比 4 月份放缓 0.4pct；日均发电 238.0 亿千瓦时。1—5 月份，工业发电量 37266 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.3%，扣除天 数原因，日均发电量同比增长 1.0%。 分品种看，5 月单月，规上工业火电由降转增，水电降幅扩大，核电、风电、太阳能 发电增速放缓。其中，规上工业火电同比增长 1.2%，4 月份为下降 2.3%；规上工业 水电下降 14.3%，降幅比 4 月份扩大 7.8 个百分 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing trend of long-term capital entering the market, with a target for large state-owned insurance companies to invest 30% of new premiums in A-shares starting from 2025 [2][3] - As of June 20, 2025, insurance capital has made significant investments in bank stocks, with eight instances of insurance companies acquiring stakes in various banks [3] - Southbound funds have shown a strong preference for Hong Kong bank stocks, with net inflows exceeding 700 billion yuan, and banks like China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank being among the top beneficiaries [4] Group 2 - The banking sector is expected to benefit from policy catalysts aimed at stabilizing the economy, with a focus on cyclical stocks that may offer alpha returns [5] - The banking industry has a dividend yield of 4.19%, ranking third among 30 sectors, indicating its stable performance and attractiveness for long-term investment [4] - The report suggests that banks such as Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank are worth monitoring under the cyclical strategy, while Shanghai Bank and Jiangsu Bank are highlighted for their dividend strategies [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [4] Core Views - The escalation of the Middle East situation is likely to increase the allocation to gold as a safe-haven asset, with recommendations to focus on companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [1][35] - The demand outlook for copper remains uncertain, with prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff disruptions, while global copper inventories have increased slightly [1] - The aluminum market is expected to see short-term price strength due to decreasing social inventories, despite an increase in supply expectations [1] - The lithium industry is facing a continued inventory build-up, leading to a weak price outlook in the short term, with a slight increase in production but weak demand from downstream material manufacturers [2] - The silicon metal market is experiencing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand growth [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen a decline this week, with prices across various non-ferrous products also decreasing [12][21] - The report highlights that the copper price is currently at 77,990 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week, while aluminum is at 20,465 CNY/ton, also stable [23] Industrial Metals - Copper: The demand outlook is unclear, with a slight increase in global copper inventories to 519,000 tons, and a year-on-year production increase of 1.1% in Q1 2025 [1] - Aluminum: The production capacity remains stable at 43.89 million tons, with expectations of increased supply but also a potential weakening in market transactions [1] Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 2.0% to 64,000 CNY/ton, with a production increase of 2% to 18,500 tons this week [2] - Silicon Metal: The average cost of metal silicon has decreased by 5.6% to 10,767.4 CNY/ton, with a weekly production of 36,600 tons [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, and companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum [1][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [7][32]. Core Viewpoints - The media sector is expected to benefit from AI applications, IP monetization, and mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on multi-modal industry directions and companies with IP advantages [1][2]. - The Chinese gaming market reached a scale of 28.051 billion yuan in May 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.86% and a month-on-month growth of 2.56% [3][21]. - The report highlights the emergence of new AI models and video generation technologies, indicating a shift towards dynamic content creation in the media industry [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The media sector experienced a decline of 1.78% during the week of June 16-20, 2025, influenced by the overall market trend [11][12]. - The top five stocks in the media sector by growth during this period were Hualuo Baina (15.7%), Times Publishing (12.8%), Century Huachuang (11.7%), Ciweng Media (10.1%), and Giant Network (8.9%) [12][16]. Sub-sector Insights - Key focus areas include resource integration expectations with companies like Zhongshi Media and Guoxin Culture, AI applications with companies like Rongxin Culture and Aofei Entertainment, and gaming with companies like Shenzhou Taiyue and Kaixin Network [2][18]. - The report suggests monitoring state-owned enterprises in the media sector, such as Ciweng Media and Wuxin Media, due to increased capital advantages [2][18]. Key Events Review - The introduction of a new feature by WeChat allowing public accounts to link to WeChat stores enhances sales opportunities for merchants [20]. - The launch of the Kimi-Dev-72B open-source code model marks a significant advancement in AI software engineering capabilities [4]. Data Tracking - The gaming market's performance is tracked, with notable titles like "Kingshot" and "Genshin Impact" contributing to overseas sales growth [3][21]. - The box office for the week of June 14-20, 2025, reached approximately 302 million yuan, with "How to Train Your Dragon" leading the rankings [23].

Group 1 - The coal mining sector is experiencing a slight recovery in prices as summer demand begins to rise, with the market showing signs of life after a prolonged period of decline [2][12][36] - The China Coal Index is at 3,215.27 points, down 0.66%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.21 percentage points, ranking 9th among the CITIC sector performance [2][82] - The report highlights that the main production areas are maintaining stable supply levels, with some coal mines resuming production after previous shutdowns due to safety and environmental inspections [12][39] Group 2 - The report indicates that the demand for thermal coal is gradually increasing as temperatures rise, leading to a quick uptick in daily consumption by power plants [12][27] - Port inventories are decreasing, but the upward price momentum is limited due to cautious buying behavior from downstream users, primarily relying on long-term contracts [14][36] - The report notes that the focus should be on the intensity of demand during the peak season and any potential policy changes that may affect the market [6][12] Group 3 - The coking coal market is showing mixed price movements, with supply constraints due to environmental checks leading to a slight recovery in prices in some regions [39][42] - The report emphasizes that the overall supply of coking coal is decreasing, with some coal mines still not back to full production, impacting market dynamics [39][58] - The report suggests that the future price movements of coking coal will depend on several factors, including domestic production adjustments and potential import disruptions [39][58] Group 4 - Key recommended stocks in the coal sector include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and new energy companies like Electric Power Investment Energy, indicating a positive outlook for these firms [7][8] - The report identifies several companies with strong performance metrics, suggesting that high-quality firms are likely to outperform in the current market environment [8][7] - The focus on coal companies with potential for recovery and growth is highlighted, particularly those that have recently undergone significant changes or restructuring [8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing Radar Six-Facet Chart - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates equity market performance through a multi-dimensional framework, incorporating liquidity, economic fundamentals, valuation, capital flows, technical signals, and crowding indicators. These dimensions are aggregated into four categories: "Valuation Cost-Effectiveness," "Macro Fundamentals," "Capital & Trend," and "Crowding & Reversal," generating a composite timing score within the range of [-1, 1][1][6][8] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select 21 indicators across six dimensions - Aggregate indicators into four categories - Normalize the composite score to the range of [-1, 1][1][6][8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive and systematic approach to timing equity markets, offering insights into multiple influencing factors[1][6] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Monetary Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor assesses the direction of monetary policy by analyzing changes in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days[12] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the average change in central bank policy rates and short-term market rates over the past 90 days - If the factor value > 0, monetary policy is deemed accommodative; if < 0, it is deemed restrictive[12] - **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures the directional stance of monetary policy[12] 2. Factor Name: Monetary Strength Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on the "interest rate corridor" concept, this factor measures the deviation of short-term market rates from policy rates to assess liquidity conditions[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute deviation = DR007/7-year reverse repo rate - 1 - Smooth and z-score the deviation - Assign scores: >1.5 standard deviations = -1 (tight liquidity), <-1.5 standard deviations = 1 (loose liquidity)[15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a quantitative measure of liquidity conditions in the market[15] 3. Factor Name: Credit Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the trend in credit transmission to the real economy using medium- and long-term loan data[17] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the year-over-year growth of medium- and long-term loans over the past 12 months - Compare the current value to the value three months ago - Assign scores: upward trend = 1, downward trend = -1[17] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures the directional trend of credit transmission effectively[17] 4. Factor Name: Credit Strength Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether credit data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[20] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute Credit Strength Factor = (New RMB loans - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation - Assign scores: >1.5 standard deviations = 1, <-1.5 standard deviations = -1[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: Quantifies the surprise in credit data relative to expectations[20] 5. Factor Name: Growth Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses PMI data to assess the directional trend of economic growth[23] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the 12-month moving average of PMI data - Compute year-over-year growth - Compare the current value to the value three months ago - Assign scores: upward trend = 1, downward trend = -1[23] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a timely measure of economic growth trends[23] 6. Factor Name: Growth Strength Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether economic growth data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[26] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute Growth Strength Factor = (PMI - median forecast) / forecast standard deviation - Assign scores: >1.5 standard deviations = 1, <-1.5 standard deviations = -1[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures the magnitude of surprises in economic growth data[26] 7. Factor Name: Inflation Direction Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Assesses the directional trend of inflation using CPI and PPI data[30] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute Inflation Direction Factor = 0.5 × smoothed CPI YoY + 0.5 × raw PPI YoY - Compare the current value to the value three months ago - Assign scores: downward trend = 1, upward trend = -1[30] - **Factor Evaluation**: Reflects the directional trend of inflation effectively[30] 8. Factor Name: Inflation Strength Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures whether inflation data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations[31] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute Inflation Strength Factor = average of CPI and PPI forecast deviations - Assign scores: <-1.5 standard deviations = 1, >1.5 standard deviations = -1[31] - **Factor Evaluation**: Quantifies inflation surprises relative to expectations[31] 9. Factor Name: Shiller ERP - **Factor Construction Idea**: Adjusts for economic cycles to evaluate equity valuation[35] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute Shiller PE = inflation-adjusted average earnings over the past 6 years - Compute Shiller ERP = 1/Shiller PE - 10-year government bond yield - Standardize using a 3-year z-score[35] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a cyclically adjusted measure of equity valuation[35] 10. Factor Name: PB - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures valuation using the price-to-book ratio[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute PB × (-1) - Standardize using a 3-year z-score, truncating at ±1.5 standard deviations[37] - **Factor Evaluation**: Offers a simple and effective valuation metric[37] 11. Factor Name: AIAE - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects market-wide equity allocation and risk appetite[41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Compute AIAE = total market cap of CSI All Share Index / (total market cap + total debt) - Standardize using a 3-year z-score[41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures overall market risk appetite[41] --- Factor Backtest Results 1. Monetary Direction Factor - Current score: 1[12] 2. Monetary Strength Factor - Current score: -1[15] 3. Credit Direction Factor - Current score: 1[17] 4. Credit Strength Factor - Current score: -1[20] 5. Growth Direction Factor - Current score: -1[23] 6. Growth Strength Factor - Current score: -1[26] 7. Inflation Direction Factor - Current score: 1[30] 8. Inflation Strength Factor - Current score: 1[31] 9. Shiller ERP - Current score: 0.30[39] 10. PB - Current score: -0.18[37] 11. AIAE - Current score: 0.15[41]