证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 计算机 下半年 AI 投资节奏 大厂驱动 Agent 是下半年 AI 主要边际变量。互联网大厂凭借资金和技 术、场景的优势已成为驱动 Agent 发展的核心力量。各类 Agent 产品成为 了近期大厂发布会和产品更新的关键角色：如字节的"扣子空间"、阿里 的"心流"、百度的"心响"等智能体层出不穷。互联网大厂在 Agent 领 域的进展将多方面带动 AI 产业进展：1）在技术领域，大厂通过开源模型 推动技术进步，大厂的各类智能体开发平台也降低了 Agent 的开发门槛。 2）在 AI 基础设施层面，大厂加大投入拉动相关产业链需求。3）在应用 场景拓展方面，大厂利用自身多元业务场景率先应用 Agent 技术，同时积 极携手生态合作伙伴赋能垂类领域，有望带动各领域软件服务商成长。 Agent 三大要素：数据、模型、接口。1）垂类数据是 Agent 能力拓展到 各行业的关键，如飞猪的 Agent"问一问"接入了自己的机票报价引擎， 平台积累的用户评价数据也被深度整合进推荐算法。2）基础大模型的能 力提升是 Agent 进步的核心 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 传媒 增持（维持） 行业走势 作者 -20% -8% 4% 16% 28% 40% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 传媒 沪深300 分析师 顾晟 腾讯开源定制化视频模型 HunyuanCustom，Lightricks 发布最 新 AI 视频生成模型 行情概览：本周（5.6-5.9）中信一级传媒板块上涨 1.39%。本周传媒板块 在市场带动下上涨。2025 年传媒弹性方向看好 AI 应用、IP 变现及并购重组， AI 应用聚焦新应用的映射投资及部分较成熟应用的数据跟踪，重点关注多模 态产业方向。IP 变现聚焦有 IP 优势及全产业链潜力的公司，潮流玩具、影视 内容等方向有机会。并购重组重点关注国企方向，在国资委明确国企市值考核 的背景下，传媒国企诉求明显提升，部分国企资金优势明显。 板块观点与关注标的：1）资源整合预期：中视传媒、国新文化、广西广电、 唐德影视、吉视传媒、游族网络等；2）AI：荣信文化、奥飞娱乐、汤姆猫、 盛天网络、中文在线、易点天下、视觉中国、盛通股份、焦点科技、豆神教育 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company has established a strong position in the AIoT SoC market, leveraging over 20 years of research and development to create a diverse product matrix that meets various customer needs [1][16]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand in the IoT market, with projections indicating substantial revenue and profit growth in the coming years [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2001, the company has evolved from audio products to a comprehensive AIoT SoC platform, focusing on various applications including video processing and AI algorithms [16][18]. - The company has achieved record revenue of 3.14 billion yuan in 2024, a 47% year-on-year increase, with net profit reaching 590 million yuan, up 341% [1][5]. IoT Market Insights - The IoT market is rapidly expanding, with significant growth in cellular IoT terminal users and AIoT reshaping the ecosystem [2]. - Key sectors such as automotive electronics, smart home, and robotics are driving demand, with flagship products like RK3588 positioned to capture market share [2][3]. Edge Computing - The integration of AI in edge computing is creating new opportunities, with the company's products being utilized in various applications, enhancing its competitive edge [3][21]. - The report anticipates a strong increase in product shipments as AI applications proliferate in edge computing environments [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are optimistic, with expected revenues of 4.31 billion yuan in 2025, 5.59 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.97 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 37.5%, 29.7%, and 24.6% respectively [3][5]. - Net profit is projected to reach 906 million yuan in 2025, 1.23 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.63 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 52.3%, 35.8%, and 32.3% respectively [3][5]. Product Matrix and Technology - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix, including high-performance AI application processors and traditional application processors, catering to various market segments [20][21]. - The flagship RK3588 product features advanced specifications, including an 8nm process, and is designed for AI and machine learning applications [22][21].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 10 年 月 日 祛魅后的真成长—本轮光模块行情的思考 本轮光模块板块自 5 月初以来强势反弹。5 月 6 日至 9 日，通信设备 ETF （159583）上涨 6.3%，新易盛（300502）涨超 20%，中际旭创（300308） 和天孚通信（300394）分别涨超 13%与 8%，仕佳光子（688313）亦 有 12.7%的优异表现，重新出现了主流资金的回归。在光模块经历了 两轮牛市后，有哪些框架需要修正、祛魅？本报告围绕四大思考维度 深入复盘：一是产品迭代节奏回归常识；二是 CPO 技术的定位与可插 拔方案共存；三是下游无源器件的价值被低估；四是行业格局与卡位 逻辑。通过论证，我们认为，当前估值与基本面双修复，正值布局良机。 1、400G、800G、1.6T 一年一代？——快进的升级迭代回归常识 ➢ 光模块 800G 仍是主流，1.6T 趋势确定 800G 光模块仍将保持主流地位，1.6T 产业进展 25 年起步，放量需 26 年及以后，但趋势确定。近年资本市场对 400G→800G→1.6T 光模块的 升级预期一度过于激进，但 80 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 55%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 180 million yuan, up 28% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 800 million yuan, reflecting a 65% year-on-year growth, and net profit was 80 million yuan, up 81% year-on-year [1][3] - The company is actively expanding its overseas production capabilities, with operational factories in the United States and Mexico. The U.S. factory has achieved rapid revenue growth and profitability, while the Mexican factory is in the ramp-up phase but is currently operating at a loss. In 2024, overseas revenue is expected to reach 220 million yuan, with new quality customers and multiple project approvals [2] - The company focuses on connector products and is continuously developing solutions for various sectors, including telecommunications, new energy vehicles, rail transportation, and medical devices. It has established partnerships with major clients in the 5.5G sector and has developed connectors for humanoid robots and liquid cooling servers [2] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 260 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 370 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 32, 26, and 22 times [3] - Financial indicators show a significant increase in revenue from 1.555 billion yuan in 2023 to an expected 2.994 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24% [4] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 1.65 yuan in 2025, with a net asset return rate of 11.2% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant improvements in operational quality and efficiency, with a clear performance inflection point driven by AI product innovations [2][4] - The core product lines, particularly in data security and managed security services (MSS), have shown robust growth, with new AI-driven products contributing to this expansion [3][4] - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, reflecting a recovery in demand within the cybersecurity sector [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.043 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 198 million, significantly narrowing from a loss of 360 million in 2023 [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 311 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with a net loss of 111 million, also a significant improvement from the 200 million loss in Q1 2024 [1] - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D have decreased significantly, indicating effective cost control measures [2] Product and Market Development - The company’s AI strategy has led to substantial growth in key product areas, with data security new product contracts increasing over 40%, and MSS revenue growing by more than 25% year-on-year [3] - The introduction of new AI-driven products and platforms is expected to create new growth opportunities, enhancing the company's competitive position in the cybersecurity market [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook with expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of leading companies in the liquor sector, particularly focusing on the structural alpha opportunities in the market. It emphasizes three main lines of investment: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and resilient recovery stocks [1][2]. - In the beer and beverage segment, the acquisition of Jimo Huangjiu by Qingdao Beer is noted as a strategic move towards diversification, with expectations of continued growth in the beverage sector despite competitive pressures [3]. - The report also discusses innovative marketing strategies in the food sector, such as collaborations between brands to create unique products, which are seen as essential for maintaining market leadership [4]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is transitioning from a performance window to a sales off-season, with companies focusing on enhancing brand strength, product structure, and marketing strategies. The report suggests that the pressures and risks in the industry are gradually being released, indicating a potential recovery in demand [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The beer segment is experiencing challenges, with Budweiser Asia reporting a decline in sales and prices. However, Qingdao Beer’s acquisition of Jimo Huangjiu is viewed as a step towards diversification and long-term growth. The beverage sector is expected to maintain high demand due to improved travel scenarios and extended holidays [3]. Food Sector - The food industry is witnessing innovative collaborations, such as the partnership between Weidong and Wufangzhai to launch new products for the Dragon Boat Festival. This trend of brand collaboration is seen as a key factor for sustaining leadership in a changing market [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the semiconductor and cloud computing sectors, including SMIC, Weir Shares, Dongshan Precision, Shenghong Technology, Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Crystal Optoelectronics, and Lingyi Zhi Zao [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong growth trend in AI investments from overseas cloud service providers (CSPs), with a projected capital expenditure of $640-720 billion from Meta and $100 billion from Amazon by 2025, indicating sustained optimism in the AI industry chain [1][36]. - Domestic foundries are expected to benefit from a return of orders due to localization trends, with SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor showing stable revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections Overseas Cloud Providers - Microsoft reported FY25Q3 revenue of $70.1 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for cloud services and AI products [13][20]. - Meta's Q1 revenue reached $42.314 billion, exceeding expectations, with a focus on AI development across five key areas [26][34]. - Amazon's Q1 revenue was $155.7 billion, with a strong performance in AWS, which saw a 17% year-over-year growth [37][41]. Domestic Foundries - SMIC's revenue showed stable growth despite short-term fluctuations, with a clear upward trend expected in the medium to long term due to increased domestic demand [2]. - Huahong Semiconductor reported consistent revenue and wafer shipment growth, indicating a robust operational capacity [2]. Key Companies and Their Performance - AMD achieved a record revenue of over $7.4 billion in Q1, marking a 36% year-over-year increase, driven by strong performance in the data center market [43]. - Shenghong Technology is highlighted as a potential beneficiary of the ongoing AI growth trend, alongside other key players in the semiconductor industry [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electricity sector [4] Core Views - The electricity sector is experiencing differentiated growth in thermal power, significant improvement in hydropower, and pressure on green energy [3][6] - The overall performance of the electricity sector is expected to continue growing, supported by falling fuel costs and potential recovery in electricity demand [3][6] Summary by Sections Market Review - In Q1 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 2.38 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The industrial power generation decreased by 0.3% year-on-year [10] - The generation from thermal, hydropower, nuclear, solar, and wind sources changed by -4.7%, +5.9%, +12.8%, +19.5%, and +9.3% respectively [10] - Coal prices have significantly decreased, with the Q1 average price for North Port Q5500 at 733 RMB/ton, down 19.2% year-on-year [18] Performance Overview - In 2024, thermal power companies achieved a net profit of 646 billion RMB, up 31.91% year-on-year, while hydropower companies reported a net profit of 563 billion RMB, up 17.31% [2] - In Q1 2025, the electricity sector's total revenue was 464.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.96% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 7.83% year-on-year to 50.7 billion RMB [3][27] Fund Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the proportion of active funds in the electricity and public utilities sector decreased to 1.37%, down 0.55 percentage points from Q4 2024 [32] - The combined holdings of both active and index funds in the sector stood at 2.02% in Q1 2025, reflecting a downward trend [32][33] Investment Recommendations - Focus on thermal power companies with strong profitability and low electricity price risks, such as Huadian International and Huaneng International [6] - Long-term investment potential is seen in hydropower and nuclear power assets due to their high dividend yields and stable performance [6] - Attention is also recommended for green energy sectors as trading and consumption issues are expected to improve [6]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 建筑材料 预计建材需求旺季不旺，淡季不淡 2025 年 5 月 6 日至 5 月 9 日建筑材料板块（SW）上涨 0.92%，其中水泥 （SW）上涨 0.57%，玻璃制造（SW）上涨 0.38%，玻纤制造（SW）下 跌 0.39%，装修建材（SW）上涨 1.85%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超 额收益-0.07%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为-0.14 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周国新办发布会发布一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期，总量方面，降 低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，地产方面， 降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点，5 年期以上首套房利率由 2.85%降至 2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整，此外，会议还指出加快 出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度，助力持续巩固房地产市 场稳定态势。根据 wind 统计，2025 年 4 月地方政府债总发行量 6932.91 亿元，发行金额同比 2024 年 4 月增长 101.6%，截至目前，2025 年一般 债 ...