证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W19：一揽子金融政策发布，降准降息落地，地产支持政策稳步推进 一揽子金融政策发布，降准降息落地，地产支持政策稳步推进。5 月 7 日， 国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关 情况。本次发布会贯彻落实此前政治局会议精神，央行行长潘功胜表示， 进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，推出一揽子货币政策措施，其中，1、 降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿 元。2、下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，预计将带动 LPR 同步下行约 0.1 个 百分点。3、降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点，五年期以上首 套房利率由 2.85%降至 2.6%。降准降息如我们此前提示，未来全国新发 房贷利率有望下破 3%关口。此外，地产支持政策稳步推进，金融监管总 局李云泽提到，目前，商业银行审批通过的"白名单"贷款增至 6.7 万亿 元，支持了 1600 多万套住宅的建设和交付。下一步，将加快完善与房地 产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度，包括房地产开发、个人住 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.39 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.21 billion yuan, up 28.6% [1]. - The company is accelerating the development of new battery technologies and expanding its overseas production bases [3]. - The company’s battery product shipments are expected to grow by 40% in 2024 and 50% in Q1 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 18.0% and a net profit margin of 3.3%, both showing improvements [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.06 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.6% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit for Q1 2025 was 100 million yuan, a 45.6% increase compared to the previous year [1]. Product and Market Position - In the power battery sector, the company ranked eighth globally in installed capacity with a market share of 3.2% [2]. - The company is the third largest in the global lithium iron phosphate battery market, with a market share of 6.18% [2]. - In the energy storage battery sector, the company holds a 6% market share, ranking seventh globally [2]. Technology and Innovation - The company has launched several high-performance battery products and introduced its first-generation all-solid-state "Jinshi" battery [3]. - The company is also developing products for new market segments such as low-altitude aircraft and electric ships [3]. Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 1.31 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 8.8% [3]. - The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 1.87 billion yuan and 2.55 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 42.5% and 36.5% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the C-REITs sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The C-REITs market is expected to present investment opportunities due to a low interest rate environment anticipated in 2025 and ongoing macroeconomic recovery [5] - The report highlights that the secondary market for C-REITs has shown moderate upward trends, particularly in the affordable housing and consumer infrastructure sectors, while transportation infrastructure and ecological environmental sectors have experienced pullbacks [3][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in investment decisions, suggesting that the current focus should be on asset resilience, secondary market prices, and P/NAV ratios [5] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.39% this week, closing at 1062.1 points, while the CSI REITs closing index rose by 0.28% to 848.4 points [1][11] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has risen by 9.73%, ranking second among various indices [2][11] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The overall secondary market for C-REITs has shown a mild upward trend, with a total market capitalization of approximately 190.27 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [3][13] - Among the listed REITs, 44 have increased in value while 21 have decreased, with an average weekly increase of 0.66% [3][13] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs remains stable, with the top three REITs yielding 11.4%, 10.8%, and 9.1% respectively [5] - The P/NAV ratios are in the range of 0.7 to 1.7, with the lowest being 0.7 for the China Communications Construction REIT [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W19：一揽子金融政策发布，降准降息落地，地产支持政策稳步推进 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为 0.4%，落后沪深 300 指 数 1.59 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 31 名。 本周网签数据依然有五一假期的影响，样本城市新房二手房成交量能低位 徘徊。新房：本周 30 个城市新房成交面积为 150.1 万平方米，环比下降 29.6%，同比下降 1.8%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 42.6 万 方，环比-35.3%，同比+17.1%；样本二线城市为 68.5 万方，环比-29.4%， 同比-14.9%；样本三线城市为 39.0 万方，环比-22.5%，同比+8.5%。 二手房：本周 14 个样本城市二手房成交面积合计 158.0 万方，环比下降 12.6%，同比下降 8.0%。其中样本一线城市的本周二手房成交面积为 59.2 万方，环比-22.5%；样本二线城市为 81.4 万方，环比 5.9%；样本 三线城市为 17.4 万方，环比-36.8%。 信用债：本周共发行房 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model Based on Prosperity-Trend-Crowdedness Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates three dimensions: industry prosperity, market trend, and crowdedness, aiming to identify industries with high prosperity, strong trends, and low crowdedness for rotation strategies [1][3][8] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Prosperity Dimension**: Evaluate industries based on fundamental indicators such as earnings growth and analyst expectations 2. **Trend Dimension**: Identify industries with strong upward momentum using technical indicators 3. **Crowdedness Dimension**: Measure the level of market participation and sentiment to avoid over-crowded industries 4. Combine these three dimensions into a scoring framework to rank industries and allocate weights accordingly [1][8][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance with consistent excess returns over benchmarks, making it a reliable tool for industry rotation [9] 2. Model Name: Industry Distress Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Focuses on industries in distress or recovering from past distress, with potential for long-term improvement in fundamentals and inventory cycles [17][99] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Exclude industries with inventory and capital expenditure historical percentiles >80% 2. Exclude industries with gross margin and free cash flow historical percentiles <20% 3. Identify industries with improving inventory conditions and favorable macroeconomic signals 4. Allocate weights to industries meeting these criteria [17][99] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures opportunities in recovering industries, delivering strong absolute and relative returns in backtests [99] 3. Model Name: PB-ROE Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Select stocks within industries based on valuation and profitability metrics, emphasizing high valuation-to-profitability efficiency [13][107] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use the industry allocation weights from the rotation model 2. Rank stocks within each industry by PB-ROE scores 3. Select the top 40% of stocks based on these scores 4. Weight selected stocks by their market capitalization and PB-ROE scores [13][107] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated strong performance in both absolute and relative terms, with high information ratios and low drawdowns [107] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Rotation Model - Annualized excess return: 16.3% - Information ratio (IR): 1.74 - Maximum drawdown: -7.4% - Monthly win rate: 71% - 2023 excess return: 9.3% - 2024 excess return: 5.0% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 2.2% [9][96][97] 2. Industry Distress Reversal Model - Annualized excess return: 16.5% - Information ratio (IR): 1.76 - Maximum drawdown: -8.7% - 2023 absolute return: 13.0%, excess return: 16.6% - 2024 absolute return: 25.6%, excess return: 14.5% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 1.7% [99][101][102] 3. PB-ROE Stock Selection Model - Annualized excess return: 22.9% - Information ratio (IR): 2.02 - Maximum drawdown: -8.0% - Monthly win rate: 74% - 2022 excess return: 10.2% - 2023 excess return: 10.4% - 2024 absolute return: 14.6%, excess return: 4.6% - 2025 YTD (as of April) excess return: 1.0% [13][107][109] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Crowdedness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the level of market participation and sentiment to identify over-crowded industries [1][8] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use trading volume, fund flows, and sentiment indicators to quantify crowdedness 2. Normalize the data and rank industries by crowdedness scores 3. Avoid industries with high crowdedness scores in allocation [1][8] 2. Factor Name: Inventory Cycle - **Factor Construction Idea**: Incorporates inventory levels and related metrics to identify industries with favorable inventory conditions [17][18] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate inventory-to-sales ratios and historical percentiles 2. Identify industries with low inventory pressure and signs of restocking 3. Combine with macroeconomic indicators for final scoring [17][18] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Crowdedness Factor - Integrated into the industry rotation model, contributing to stable excess returns and risk control [1][8][9] 2. Inventory Cycle Factor - Integrated into the distress reversal model, enhancing its ability to capture recovery opportunities in industries [17][18][99]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 2.06 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.5% in core business revenue after excluding other businesses [1]. - The profitability indicators for Q1 2025 were strong, with a gross margin of 26.8% and a net margin of 14.0%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4.2 percentage points and 2.9 percentage points, respectively [1]. - The company is benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives, which are expected to continue driving performance [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 8.074 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.039 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.8% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 816 million yuan in 2023 to 1.868 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 20.4% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.96 yuan in 2023 to 2.20 yuan in 2027 [3]. Business Development - The company is expanding its global footprint, particularly in the new energy transmission gear business, which is expected to enhance the value per vehicle significantly [2]. - Collaborations with leading domestic manufacturers in the smart home and automotive sectors are expected to drive growth in the smart actuator business [2]. - The company has established stable delivery of projects for international clients, which is anticipated to accelerate growth beyond the industry average [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit, with 2024 revenue reaching 37.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 37.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.12 billion yuan, up 126.5% [1] - The domestic tourism market recovery and the "old-for-new" policy have positively impacted sales, with total bus sales reaching 46,900 units in 2024, a 28.5% increase year-on-year [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from policy-driven domestic replacement demand and has expanded its presence in overseas markets, particularly in the high-end European market [3] Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin improved from 3.52% in 2022 to 11.16% in 2024, with net profit increasing from 768 million yuan to 4.15 billion yuan during the same period [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.42 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 14.9% to 755 million yuan [1][2] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.8 billion yuan in 2025, 5.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 6 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 times [3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a strong growth in the domestic bus market, with sales of buses over 6 meters increasing by 33.4% in 2024, and a significant rise in exports of large and medium-sized buses [3] - The company has made strategic investments in new energy vehicles, with a notable increase in exports of 2,700 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 84.6% and a market share of 17.5% [3] - Recent policy changes, such as increased subsidies for new energy city buses, are expected to further boost demand for the company's products [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 2.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% when excluding other businesses [1] - The profitability indicators showed a gross margin of 26.8% and a net margin of 14.0%, reflecting improvements compared to the previous year [1] - The company is benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency enhancement initiatives, which are expected to continue driving performance [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 8,074 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.1% [3] - The projected net profit for 2025E is 1,259 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.0% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 1.49 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.2 times [3] Business Segment Insights - The company's new energy transmission gear business is expected to see significant value increase per vehicle due to the rising penetration of coaxial reducers [2] - International projects with clients like Stellantis and Schaeffler are contributing to growth, with stable deliveries expected to exceed industry averages [2] - The smart actuator segment is expanding into various fields, including smart office and smart automotive applications, enhancing the company's growth trajectory [2]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 09 年 月 日 事件。公司发布财报，2024 年营业收入 372.2 亿元，同比增长 37.6%， 归母净利润为 41.2 亿元，同比增长 126.5%；2025Q1 营业收入 64.2 亿 元，同比减少 3%，归母净利润 7.55 亿元，同比增长 14.9%。 内需与出口共振，业绩增长突出。受益于国内旅游市场向好、以旧换新带 动及国产客车产品竞争力的提升，2024 年，宇通客车累计销售客车 4.69 万辆，同比+28.5%，对内和出口销售分别为 3.29 万辆/1.4 万辆，同比分 别+24.9%/+37.7%，内需及出口均实现较好增长，带动公司业绩表现超 预期，同比增长超 100%。2024 年归母净利润/Q4 单季度归母净利润分别 为 41.2/16.8 亿元，盈利靠近历史高点。2025Q1，公司客车销售 9011 台， 同比 16.6%，根据客车网数据，公司大中型客车出口 1329 台，同比 +35.5%，市场占比 21.09%，超行业 2 成，归母净利润实现 7.55 亿元， 同比增长 14.9%。 会计调整影响毛利率，盈利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the report emphasizes the importance of understanding the industry's fundamental attributes and maintaining confidence [7][63] - Key recommendations include major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A) and China Coal Energy (H+A), as well as companies showing signs of recovery like Qinfa [8][64] Summary by Sections Cash King - Since the supply-side reform in 2016, the historical burden on coal companies has significantly decreased. Despite the continuous decline in coal prices since early 2024, some companies have cash balances (cash and cash equivalents + trading financial assets) far exceeding their interest-bearing debts. As of Q1 2025, the top five companies with the highest cash balances are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Jinkong Coal, China Coal Energy, and Lu'an Environmental Energy [1][17] Low Debt - As of Q1 2025, the asset-liability ratio for large coal enterprises is 60.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Most sampled coal companies have asset-liability ratios lower than the industry average. The companies with the lowest asset-liability ratios are China Shenhua, Jinkong Coal, Electric Power Investment Energy, Yitai B, and Shanghai Energy [20][21] Strong Foundation - Special reserves are funds set aside by coal companies for safety production and maintaining simple reproduction. The top five companies with the highest net increase in special reserves from the end of 2023 to Q1 2025 are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yitai B, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Gansu Energy [25][31] High Potential - Considering the cyclical nature of coal prices, coal companies may enhance cost control to ensure steady improvement in profitability. The report evaluates potential profit release using the ratio of operating cash flow minus net profit, depreciation, and financial expenses to net profit. The companies with the highest potential for profit release are Haohua Energy, Yitai B, Huabei Mining, China Coal Energy, and Shanmei International [2][51] Dividend King - The top five companies in terms of cumulative cash dividends over the past three years are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yunkang Energy, China Coal Energy, and Lu'an Environmental Energy. The report highlights the high dividend attributes of coal companies, driven by reduced historical burdens and a cautious approach to reinvesting in traditional businesses [3][55]