Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank (601658.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The bank's revenue and profit continue to show positive growth, with operating income reaching 265.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 76.6 billion yuan, up 1.0% year-on-year [1]. - The bank's total assets grew by 11.1% year-on-year to 18.6 trillion yuan, with corporate loans increasing by 17.9% due to enhanced credit allocation in advanced manufacturing, green finance, technology finance, and inclusive finance [1]. - The net interest margin decreased to 1.68%, down 21 basis points year-on-year, while non-interest income grew significantly, with net fee income increasing by 11.5% to 23.1 billion yuan [2]. - Asset quality pressures are evident, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%, up 0.04 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2]. Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 86.6 billion, 87.2 billion, and 88.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 0.7%, and 1.2% respectively [3][4]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.67 yuan for 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 8.9x [3][4]. - The bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio is expected to be 10.65% by the end of Q3 2025, an increase of 1.09 percentage points from the beginning of the year [1].

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 中国石油（601857.SH） 优于大市 天然气板块盈利大幅改善，第三季度归母净利润 423 亿元 2025 年单三季度归母净利润 423 亿元，业绩超预期。2025 年前三季度公司 实现营收 2.17 万亿元（同比-3.9%），主要由于原油、成品油价格下降；实 现归母净利润 1262.8 亿元（同比-4.9%），实现扣非归母净利润 1268.7 亿 元（同比-6.4%）。2025 年第三季度公司实现营收 7191.6 亿元（同比+2.3%， 环比+3.2%），实现归母净利润 422.9 亿元（同比-3.9%，环比+13.7%），实 现扣非归母净利润 427.6 亿元（同比-2.0%，环比+13.9%），业绩超预期。 原油产量稳中有升，加快新能源业务发展。2025 年前三季度公司油气与新能 源板块实现经营利润 1251.0 亿元（同比-13.3%），主要由于原油销售价格 下降，实现油气当量产量 1377.2 百万桶油当量（同比+2.6%），其中原油产 量 714.3 百万桶（同比+0.8%），原油平均实现价格 65.6 美元/桶（同比 -14.7%），油气单位操作成本 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company achieved positive growth in both revenue and profit, with operating income reaching 640 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 269.9 billion yuan, a 0.3% increase year-on-year [1][3] - The company's total assets grew by 9.2% year-on-year to 52.8 trillion yuan, with deposits increasing by 7.1% to 37.3 trillion yuan and loans rising by 7.3% to 30.5 trillion yuan [1][2] - The net interest margin decreased to 1.28%, down 15 basis points year-on-year, impacting net interest income which fell by 0.7% [2][3] - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 27.6%, primarily driven by growth in investment income [2][3] Financial Summary - For the forecasted years 2025-2027, the company is expected to have net profits of 360.8 billion, 365.8 billion, and 384.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.4%, 1.4%, and 5.0% [3][4] - The diluted EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.97, 0.98, and 1.04 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.1, 8.0, and 7.6 [3][4] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 13.57%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points from the beginning of the year [1][3]

Group 1: Fixed Income Strategy - The central bank has restarted bond purchases, indicating potential short-term opportunities in the bond market [7] - In October, most bond yields declined, with significant decreases in credit spreads and default amounts [7] - The report suggests a structural shift in government policy focus from traditional infrastructure to urban renewal and related service industries [7] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio decreased to 4.73% in Q3 2025, indicating a decline in heavy investment [13][14] - The liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but the holding ratio for major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye has decreased [16] - The report highlights a general reduction in fund holdings across various sub-sectors, including soft drinks and snacks [15][16] Group 3: Banking Sector - Changshu Bank reported a revenue of 9.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.15% [17] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a significant reduction in asset impairment losses [17][18] - The report indicates a slight improvement in loan growth, particularly in personal business loans, although overall retail credit demand remains under pressure [18] Group 4: Potash Industry - Yara International's revenue increased by 55.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by both volume and price increases in potash [22] - The average selling price of potash rose to 2,507 yuan/ton, reflecting a 27.9% increase year-on-year [22] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new projects expected to come online soon, contributing to sustained high demand in the potash market [24][25] Group 5: Oilfield Services - CNOOC Services reported a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 32.09% in the first three quarters of 2025 [28] - The utilization rate of drilling platforms has improved, contributing to higher revenue and profit margins [29] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic shift towards high-return projects and the optimization of its business structure [30] Group 6: Chemical Industry - Hualu Hengsheng's revenue in Q3 2025 was 7.79 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.1% [26] - The company experienced a slight decrease in net profit, attributed to market supply and demand changes for its main products [26][27] - The report notes that the company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements amid fluctuating raw material prices [27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The bank's revenue and profit continue to maintain positive growth, with operating income reaching 550.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 220.9 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [1][2] - The asset scale is growing rapidly, with total assets increasing by 10.5% year-on-year to 48.1 trillion yuan, and deposits growing by 5.8% to 32.1 trillion yuan [1] - The net interest margin continues to decline, with an average net interest margin of 1.30% in the first three quarters, down 15 basis points year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank's net interest income decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while net fee income increased by 13.3% and other non-interest income surged by 31.7% [2] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.27%, a slight decrease from the beginning of the year, and the provision coverage ratio remained high at 295% [2] - The bank's financial forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 292.4 billion yuan, 301.9 billion yuan, and 313.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding diluted EPS of 0.78, 0.81, and 0.84 yuan [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - As of the end of Q3 2025, the issuance and scale of medium- and long-term pure bond funds decreased, with the average asset and net asset scales also declining, and the average leverage ratio dropping. The single-quarter average net value growth rate of medium- and long-term pure bonds was -0.32%, lower than that of the previous quarter. In terms of asset allocation, the proportion of bond assets decreased, and the proportion of enterprise-issued bonds increased. The top-performing medium- and long-term pure bond fund adopted a defensive strategy and achieved a net value return of 1.26% in the "bear-flattening" trend in Q3 [1][2][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Q3 Medium- and Long-Term Pure Bond Fund Basic Situation - **Issuance Quantity and Scale Decrease**: As of the end of Q3 2025, there were 2,428 medium- and long-term pure bond funds outstanding, accounting for 18.2% of the entire fund market. In Q3, 65 medium- and long-term pure bond funds were issued, with a issuance share of 17.2 billion, a significant decrease compared to the previous quarter and a decline compared to the same period last year [1][9]. - **Fund Scale Declines**: As of the end of Q3 2025, the total assets and net assets of medium- and long-term pure bond funds that had disclosed quarterly reports were 7.1463 trillion yuan and 5.9676 trillion yuan respectively, a decrease of 868.6 billion yuan and 555.8 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter. The average total assets and net assets were 3.4 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan respectively, a decrease of 500 million yuan and 300 million yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter. Among the 2,107 old medium- and long-term pure bond funds that had announced performance, 449 achieved positive net asset scale growth, while 1,658 had a decline in net assets. The largest decrease in net asset scale was Huaxia Dingmao, with a decrease of 18.36 billion yuan [1][10]. - **Average Leverage Ratio Drops**: At the end of Q3 2025, the average leverage ratio of medium- and long-term pure bond funds under the overall method was 1.20, a decrease of 0.03 compared to the end of the previous quarter. Under the average method, the average leverage ratio was 1.17, also a decrease of 0.03 compared to the end of the previous quarter [1][14]. - **Net Value Growth Rate Declines**: In Q3 2025, the bond market yield showed a significant upward trend, presenting a "bear-flattening" feature. The 10-year Treasury bond yield fluctuated between 1.64% - 1.92% and closed at 1.88% at the end of the quarter. The single-quarter average net value growth rate of medium- and long-term pure bonds was -0.32%, lower than that of the previous quarter. Among the 2,107 funds that had disclosed performance, 617 had a positive net value growth rate, accounting for 29.5%, a significant decrease in proportion [1][16][19]. 2025 Q3 Medium- and Long-Term Pure Bond Fund Asset Allocation - **Bond Asset Allocation Decreases**: As of the end of Q3 2025, the total assets of medium- and long-term pure bond funds were 7.1463 trillion yuan, including 6.9339 trillion yuan in bond assets, 69.2 billion yuan in bank deposits, 132.2 billion yuan in repurchase assets, and 11 billion yuan in other assets. Bond assets decreased by 900 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter, while bank deposits, repurchase assets, and other assets changed by -7.3 billion yuan, 59.1 billion yuan, and -20.5 billion yuan respectively. In terms of proportion, bond assets still accounted for the highest proportion at 97.0%, a decrease of 0.7% compared to the previous quarter; bank deposits accounted for 1.0%, the same as the previous quarter; repurchase assets and other assets accounted for 1.8% and 0.2% of total assets respectively, with a change of 0.9% and -0.2% compared to the previous quarter [25]. - **Enterprise Bond Allocation Increases**: As of the end of Q3 2025, the main bond types held by medium- and long-term pure bond funds were interest rate bonds, financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds), and enterprise-issued bonds, accounting for 48.7%, 22.2%, and 25.4% of the total bond assets respectively. Negotiable certificates of deposit, asset-backed securities, and other bonds accounted for 1.7%, 0.2%, and 1.8% of total assets respectively. Compared to the end of the previous quarter, the proportions of interest rate bonds, financial bonds, and enterprise-issued bonds in bond assets changed by -0.9%, -0.1%, and 1.8% respectively, while the proportions of negotiable certificates of deposit and other bonds changed by -0.3% and -0.5% respectively, and the proportion of asset-backed securities remained basically the same as the previous quarter [2][28]. 2025 Q3 High-Performing Funds - **Fund A Adopts Defensive Strategy**: Fund A, which ranked first in net value return, reduced bond allocation and increased bank deposit allocation to cope with bond market fluctuations in Q3 2025. Among medium- and long-term pure bond funds with a scale of over 1 billion yuan, Fund A ranked first among its peers with a net value growth rate of 1.26%. The fund adjusted its strategy in multiple dimensions to cope with bond market fluctuations, including reducing bond positions and increasing bank deposit allocation in the allocation aspect; continuing to focus on policy bank bonds (accounting for 38.14%) in bond type selection, and simultaneously increasing the allocation of credit bonds (accounting for 22.59%) and convertible bonds (accounting for 18.14%); shortening the portfolio duration from 6.04 years to 4.98 years in duration management to defend against long-term interest rate fluctuation risks; and moderately increasing the leverage ratio from 102.7% to 114.1% in leverage operation [41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][19] Core Views - The company continues to experience revenue and net profit adjustments, with a total revenue of 3.702 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 17.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 472 million yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year [1][4] - The decline in revenue is influenced by policy changes, but low-priced products and e-commerce channels are performing well, with e-commerce sales increasing by 71.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2][4] - The company is expected to recover growth in the coming years as market conditions improve, with projected revenues of 4.619 billion yuan in 2025, down 13.8% year-on-year, but with a recovery of 10.3% in 2026 and 12.0% in 2027 [4][11] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 62.1%, a decrease of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin decline of 3.7 percentage points [3][4] - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 312 million yuan, indicating pressure on cash flow performance [3][4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.74 yuan, with a significant increase in net profit expected in subsequent years, reaching 7.79 billion yuan by 2027 [5][11]

Group 1: Market Overview - In October, most bond yields declined, with short-term interest rates rising and long-term rates falling in the government bond sector [4][18] - The overall yield of all credit bond varieties decreased significantly, with a notable drop in credit spreads [4][18] - The amount of defaults in October saw a substantial decrease, totaling 800 million [26] Group 2: Domestic and International Economic Fundamentals - The US economy showed signs of recovery, with the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs recorded at 52.0 and 55.2 respectively [30] - The US CPI inflation remained moderate, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in September, reflecting a slight rise [34] - Domestic GDP growth for Q3 was lower than expected, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, indicating a structural shift in the construction industry [39][48] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The central bank has resumed operations in the government bond market, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [93][104] - The average R001 and R007 rates decreased to 1.37% and 1.48% respectively, reflecting a return to policy rates after the end of the quarter [10][95] Group 4: RWA Bonds and Market Opportunities - RWA bonds are defined as standardized debt financing tools based on stable cash flow assets, utilizing blockchain technology for tokenization [107] - The report highlights the operational mechanisms of RWA bonds, emphasizing their efficiency and transparency compared to traditional bonds and asset-backed securities [4][18] - The market is expected to present phase-specific opportunities as the central bank's resumption of bond purchases may indicate an over-adjustment in the bond market [4][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company demonstrated operational resilience amidst demand pressure, with total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reaching 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and net profit of 64.6 billion yuan, also up 6.2% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 39.8 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while net profit was 19.2 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is expected to accelerate the delivery of 500ml Flying Moutai and increase the supply of kilogram Flying Moutai to support growth, as the demand for non-standard products remains under pressure [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q3 2025 saw Moutai liquor revenue of 34.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.26%, while series liquor revenue dropped by 34% to 4.1 billion yuan [2]. - The overall gross margin showed minimal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.23 percentage points, attributed to a higher proportion of Flying Moutai products [2][3]. Channel Performance - Wholesale channel revenue in Q3 2025 was 23.5 billion yuan, up 14.39% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in the distribution channels [2][3]. - Direct sales channel revenue decreased by 14.87% year-on-year to 15.5 billion yuan, with "i Moutai" contributing 1.9 billion yuan, down 57.24% [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company slightly adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts, expecting total revenue of 183.5 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and net profit of 90.6 billion yuan, up 5.1% [4][5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 72.12 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.9 for 2025 and 18.9 for 2026 [5][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][22][26] Core Views - The company has significantly increased its net profit in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 46.24% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.69%. The revenue for Q3 2025 was 11.533 billion yuan, while the net profit reached 1.246 billion yuan [1][8] - The increase in revenue and gross profit is primarily attributed to the higher utilization rates of large equipment and the orderly operation of high-day-rate projects for overseas semi-submersible drilling platforms [1][8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its business structure, with expectations for gradual improvements in gross margins. The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 4.098 billion, 4.274 billion, and 4.560 billion yuan respectively [3][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 34.854 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.54%, and a net profit of 3.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.09% [1][8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 19.53%, up by 1.46 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 10.80%, up by 3.15 percentage points year-on-year [1][8] Drilling Platform Utilization - The utilization rate of drilling platforms remains high, with a total of 14,784 operational days in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The self-elevating drilling platforms operated for 11,624 days, up by 9.7% year-on-year, while semi-submersible platforms operated for 3,160 days, up by 22.9% year-on-year [11][17] - The calendar day utilization rate for drilling platforms was 90.3%, an increase of 11.6 percentage points year-on-year [11] Oilfield Technology Services - The oilfield technology services segment has maintained growth in workload, with significant increases in ship service operations, totaling 62,589 operational days, a year-on-year increase of 17.7% [2][17] - The engineering survey segment is focusing on high-return businesses, with a notable increase in underwater operations, which saw a year-on-year growth of 131.3% [18]