========= - The "Guosen JinGong Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" aims to select stocks with both fundamental support and technical resonance from an analyst-recommended stock pool[14][15] - The portfolio's backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[15] - The portfolio construction involves selecting stocks based on analysts' upward earnings forecasts, initial coverage, and unexpected events in analyst reports[15] Portfolio Backtesting Results - Annualized return: 19.11%[15] - Excess return relative to the Hang Seng Index: 18.48%[15] - Maximum drawdown: 23.73%[20] - Information ratio (IR): 1.22[20] - Tracking error: 14.55%[20] - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 0.78[20] Stable New High Stock Screening Method - The method screens stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, stock price stability, and continuity of new highs[23][24] - The formula for the 250-day new high distance is: $$ 250 \text{ day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $$ where $Closet$ is the latest closing price and $ts\_max(Close, 250)$ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[23] - Stocks are selected based on the absolute value of the past 120-day price change and the sum of the absolute values of the past 120-day price changes[23] Stable New High Stock Screening Results - The sector with the most new high stocks is the cyclical sector, followed by technology, consumer, financial, manufacturing, and pharmaceutical sectors[23] - Specific stocks that have reached stable new highs include China National Building Material, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and others[23][29] - The screening criteria include analyst attention (at least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 6 months), relative stock strength (top 20% in the past 250 days), and stock price stability (top 50% based on price path smoothness and new high continuity)[24] Performance of Hong Kong Stock Connect and Active Funds Investing in Hong Kong Stocks - Median return of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks this week: -3.44%[44] - Median return of active funds investing in Hong Kong stocks this week: -3.79%[44] - Median return of Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks this year: 25.14%[44] - Median return of active funds investing in Hong Kong stocks this year: 34.50%[44] Top Performing Funds - This week: Ping An Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Select A (2.29%), China Merchants Bank Hong Kong and Shanghai Multi-Strategy (1.90%), Ping An Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Select A (1.88%)[45] - This year: China Universal Hong Kong Advantage Select A (140.23%), Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical A (104.90%), E Fund Global Pharmaceutical Industry RMB A (93.97%)[45] =========

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Name**: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days to identify stocks that are reaching new highs, which can be indicative of market trends and hotspots[11] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the 250-day new high distance using the formula: $$ \text{250-Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - If the latest closing price is a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the percentage drop from the new high[11] - **Model Evaluation**: This model is effective in identifying stocks that are leading the market and can be used to track market trends and hotspots[11] Model 2: Stable New High Stock Tracking Model - **Model Name**: Stable New High Stock Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model selects stocks that have recently reached new highs and exhibit stable price paths, which are less likely to be influenced by extreme short-term movements[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days[19] - Filter stocks based on analyst attention, relative strength, price path stability, and new high continuity[26] - Specific criteria include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months - Relative strength: Top 20% in market performance over the past 250 days - Price path stability: Evaluate using the sum of absolute daily returns over the past 120 days - New high continuity: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days[26] - **Model Evaluation**: This model is useful for identifying stocks with strong and stable upward trends, which are less likely to be influenced by short-term volatility[24] Model Backtest Results 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Shanghai Composite Index**: 2.39%[12] - **Shenzhen Component Index**: 7.55%[12] - **CSI 300 Index**: 4.15%[12] - **CSI 500 Index**: 7.06%[12] - **CSI 1000 Index**: 6.05%[12] - **CSI 2000 Index**: 6.64%[12] - **ChiNext Index**: 10.01%[12] - **STAR 50 Index**: 11.43%[12] Stable New High Stock Tracking Model - **Number of Selected Stocks**: 27[27] - **Top Sectors**: Cyclical (14 stocks), Manufacturing (8 stocks)[27] - **Top Industries in Cyclical Sector**: Non-ferrous Metals[27] - **Top Industries in Manufacturing Sector**: Machinery[27] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Factor Name**: 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days to identify stocks that are reaching new highs[11] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the 250-day new high distance using the formula: $$ \text{250-Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor is effective in identifying stocks that are leading the market and can be used to track market trends and hotspots[11] Factor 2: Stable New High Factor - **Factor Name**: Stable New High Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor selects stocks that have recently reached new highs and exhibit stable price paths, which are less likely to be influenced by extreme short-term movements[24] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Select stocks that have reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days[19] - Filter stocks based on analyst attention, relative strength, price path stability, and new high continuity[26] - Specific criteria include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or hold ratings in the past 3 months - Relative strength: Top 20% in market performance over the past 250 days - Price path stability: Evaluate using the sum of absolute daily returns over the past 120 days - New high continuity: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor is useful for identifying stocks with strong and stable upward trends, which are less likely to be influenced by short-term volatility[24] Factor Backtest Results 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Shanghai Composite Index**: 2.39%[12] - **Shenzhen Component Index**: 7.55%[12] - **CSI 300 Index**: 4.15%[12] - **CSI 500 Index**: 7.06%[12] - **CSI 1000 Index**: 6.05%[12] - **CSI 2000 Index**: 6.64%[12] - **ChiNext Index**: 10.01%[12] - **STAR 50 Index**: 11.43%[12] Stable New High Factor - **Number of Selected Stocks**: 27[27] - **Top Sectors**: Cyclical (14 stocks), Manufacturing (8 stocks)[27] - **Top Industries in Cyclical Sector**: Non-ferrous Metals[27] - **Top Industries in Manufacturing Sector**: Machinery[27]

- The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks that have reached new highs, using the 250-day high distance as a key metric[11] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - As of October 17, 2025, the 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 2.39%, Shenzhen Component Index 7.55%, CSI 300 4.15%, CSI 500 7.06%, CSI 1000 6.05%, CSI 2000 6.64%, ChiNext Index 10.01%, and STAR 50 Index 11.43%[12][13][15] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: 250-day High Distance** - **Model Construction Idea:** The model tracks the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days to identify stocks that are reaching new highs[11] - **Model Construction Process:** - Calculate the 250-day high distance using the formula: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and ts_max(Close, 250) is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11] - **Model Evaluation:** The model is effective in identifying stocks that are reaching new highs, which can be considered market leaders and potential investment opportunities[11] Model Backtesting Results 1. **250-day High Distance Model** - Shanghai Composite Index: 2.39%[12] - Shenzhen Component Index: 7.55%[12] - CSI 300: 4.15%[12] - CSI 500: 7.06%[12] - CSI 1000: 6.05%[12] - CSI 2000: 6.64%[12] - ChiNext Index: 10.01%[12] - STAR 50 Index: 11.43%[12] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name: Smooth Momentum** - **Factor Construction Idea:** The factor focuses on stocks with smooth price paths and consistent momentum, as these stocks tend to have higher returns compared to those with jumpy price paths[24] - **Factor Construction Process:** - **Analyst Attention:** At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months[26] - **Relative Strength:** Top 20% in terms of 250-day price change[26] - **Price Stability:** Combine the following two indicators and select the top 50% of stocks: - Price path smoothness: Ratio of price displacement to price path length[26] - Consistency of new highs: Average 250-day high distance over the past 120 days[26] - **Trend Continuation:** Average 250-day high distance over the past 5 days, select the top 50 stocks[26] - **Factor Evaluation:** The factor effectively identifies stocks with strong and stable momentum, which are likely to continue performing well[24] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Smooth Momentum Factor** - Selected stocks include: Xiangnong Chip, Oriental Tower, Neway Valve, etc.[27] - Sector distribution: Cyclical (14 stocks), Manufacturing (8 stocks)[27] - Industry leaders: Non-ferrous metals in the cyclical sector, machinery in the manufacturing sector[27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][14] Core Views - The acquisition of Venator UK's titanium dioxide assets at a low price is a strategic move by the company during the industry adjustment period, further consolidating its position as a global industry leader [4][5] - The establishment of subsidiaries in Malaysia and the UK is part of the company's globalization strategy, aimed at increasing its global market share [4][9] - The domestic titanium dioxide and titanium concentrate market remains relatively loose in the short term, with expectations for further industry consolidation and an increase in the proportion of high-end chloride process capacity, laying the groundwork for future market stabilization [4][10] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company’s subsidiary, Baileyan Europe, acquired titanium dioxide-related assets from Venator UK for USD 69.9 million, which includes land, production and R&D equipment, spare parts, business records, registered intellectual property across multiple regions, and inventory located in the UK and Switzerland. The book value of the assets is approximately USD 534 million, with a net value of USD 195 million, indicating a significant discount on the transaction price [3][5] - The company will also incur about USD 14.19 million in VAT, stamp duty, and other taxes, with the final amount adjusted based on inventory at the time of closing [3][5] Global Expansion Strategy - The company plans to invest USD 5 million to establish "Longbai Asia New Materials Co., Ltd." in Malaysia, focusing on import-export trade, chemical production, and technical services [3][9] - Additionally, it will invest USD 50 million to set up "Longbai UK Titanium Co., Ltd." in the UK, specializing in the production and sales of titanium dioxide [3][9] Market Conditions - The domestic market for titanium dioxide and titanium concentrate has seen a price decline, with the average price of rutile titanium dioxide around CNY 12,997 per ton, down 14% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter [10] - The supply side shows continued expansion in domestic titanium dioxide capacity, with operational rates around 70% and additional projects in the pipeline, contributing to market looseness [10] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are CNY 29.98 billion, CNY 35.05 billion, and CNY 38.10 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.26, CNY 1.47, and CNY 1.60 [4][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][26]. Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of 1888 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The growth is driven by the release of advertising inventory and AI in the advertising sector, strong performance in gaming, and double-digit growth in the fintech business [4][8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the game "Delta Force," with expectations of continued growth in both domestic and overseas markets. The marketing services segment is also projected to grow rapidly, benefiting from AI enhancements and increased advertising opportunities [5][21]. - The fintech and enterprise services segment is expected to grow by 10%, primarily driven by payment services and the expansion of e-commerce commissions through WeChat [21][23]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - For Q3 2025, Tencent's total revenue is projected to be 1888 billion yuan, with a breakdown of: - Gaming revenue at 603 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year - Marketing services revenue at 357 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year - Fintech and enterprise services revenue at 584 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [4][5][21]. Profitability Metrics - Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to reach 735 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 667 billion yuan, reflecting a 12% growth. The Non-IFRS net profit margin is projected at 35.4% [4][8][29]. Business Segment Performance - **Gaming**: The gaming segment is expected to see a 16% increase in revenue, driven by the success of "Delta Force" and stable growth from existing titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [4][19]. - **Marketing Services**: The marketing services segment is anticipated to grow by 19%, supported by AI-driven enhancements and increased advertising opportunities across platforms like WeChat [5][16]. - **Fintech and Enterprise Services**: This segment is projected to grow by 10%, with significant contributions from payment services and the expansion of WeChat's e-commerce capabilities [21][23]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that Tencent has substantial long-term growth potential, particularly in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI integration, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts. The expected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 2593 billion yuan, 2979 billion yuan, and 3374 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight upward adjustment of 1% for each year [23][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][14] Core Views - The acquisition of Venator UK's titanium dioxide assets at a significantly discounted price is a strategic move by the company during an industry adjustment period, further solidifying its position as a global industry leader [4][5] - The establishment of subsidiaries in Malaysia and the UK is part of the company's globalization strategy, aimed at enhancing its global market share [4][9] - The domestic titanium dioxide and titanium concentrate market remains relatively loose in the short term, with expectations for increased industry concentration and a potential rise in the share of high-end chloride process capacity, laying the groundwork for future market stabilization [4][10] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company’s subsidiary, Ba Li Lian Europe, acquired titanium dioxide-related assets from Venator UK for USD 69.9 million, which includes land, production and R&D equipment, spare parts, business records, registered intellectual property across multiple regions, and inventory located in the UK and Switzerland. The book value of the assets is approximately USD 534 million, with a net value of USD 195 million, indicating a significant discount on the transaction price [3][5] - The company will also incur about USD 14.19 million in VAT and stamp duty, with the final amount subject to adjustment based on inventory at the time of closing [3][5] Global Expansion Strategy - The company plans to invest USD 5 million to establish "Longbai Asia New Materials Co., Ltd." in Malaysia, focusing on import-export trade, chemical production, and technical services. Additionally, it will invest USD 50 million to set up "Longbai UK Titanium Co., Ltd." in the UK, dedicated to the production and sale of titanium dioxide [3][9] - These investments have been approved by the company's board and will not adversely affect its financial status [3][9] Market Outlook - The domestic market for titanium dioxide and titanium concentrate has seen a decline in average prices, with expectations for further industry consolidation. The average price for rutile titanium dioxide in Q3 2025 is approximately CNY 12,997 per ton, down 14% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter [10] - The supply side continues to expand, with domestic production capacity reaching 5.9 million tons and an operating rate of about 70%. The market remains under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak downstream demand [10]

- The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight increase of 0.10% on October 16, 2025[5] - The CSI 300 Value Index performed well, rising by 0.64% on the same day[5] - The coal, banking, and food & beverage sectors showed strong performance with returns of 2.49%, 1.41%, and 0.98% respectively[6] - The ETF with the highest premium on October 15, 2025, was the CSI A100 Index ETF with a premium of 2.38%[22] - The ETF with the highest discount on the same day was the STAR Market Composite Index ETF Xingye with a discount of 0.68%[22] - The financing balance as of October 16, 2025, was 24,401 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance was 171 billion yuan[17] - The financing and securities lending balance accounted for 2.6% of the market's total circulating market value as of October 16, 2025[21] - The financing and securities lending transactions accounted for 11.1% of the market's total transaction volume on the same day[21] - The median annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures over the past year were 0.05%, 2.72%, 10.32%, and 12.84% respectively[27] - On October 16, 2025, the annualized discount rate for the main contract of the SSE 50 stock index futures was 0.04%, at the 51st percentile over the past year[27] - The annualized discount rate for the main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures on the same day was 3.34%, at the 44th percentile over the past year[27] - The annualized discount rate for the main contract of the CSI 500 stock index futures on the same day was 12.74%, at the 36th percentile over the past year[27] - The annualized discount rate for the main contract of the CSI 1000 stock index futures on the same day was 14.45%, at the 39th percentile over the past year[27]

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - In September, China's new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations of 3.27 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans amounted to 1.29 trillion yuan, slightly below the expected 1.39 trillion yuan. M2 growth year-on-year was 8.4%, close to the expected 8.5% [7][8] - The financial data indicates a trend of "total pressure, structural optimization," with social financing growth slowing to 8.7%, reflecting weak overall financing demand. However, there are signs of improvement in corporate credit structure and a slight increase in household medium to long-term loans [7][8] - The increase in deposits in September was 2.21 trillion yuan, with M2 growth rate declining to 8.4%. The structure shows an increase in household and corporate deposits, while fiscal and non-bank deposits decreased significantly [9] Group 2: Industry and Company - The e-commerce industry is currently focusing on two main themes: reducing competition pressure and enhancing efficiency for small and medium-sized merchants. Platforms are adjusting their monetization strategies, with Pinduoduo showing the most significant decline in monetization rate [12][13] - The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is expected to see a reduction in investment from platforms, leading to a divergence in GMV performance. Taobao's market share is projected to decline slightly, while JD, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou are expected to gain [12][13] - The media sector showed a 4.96% increase in September, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.76 percentage points. Key stocks like Giant Network and Mango Super Media performed well, while others like Youzu Network saw declines [14][15] - The gaming market's revenue in August saw a slight month-on-month increase of 0.6%, with 145 domestic games and 11 imported games approved in September. The market is expected to benefit from new product cycles and AI applications [14][15] - The film and television sector experienced a decline in box office revenue during the National Day holiday, primarily due to a lack of compelling new releases. However, the overall ticket sales in September increased by 82.8% year-on-year [15][16] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with strong AI capabilities and those benefiting from new product cycles in the gaming sector, such as Kae Ying Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since the third quarter, the 30 - 10 spread has widened rapidly, which is related to the marginal changes in the factors compressing the spread. The macro - narrative has changed, and the tax policy adjustment in August had a more obvious impact on the 30 - year Treasury yield. Looking ahead, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress again. The spread has adjusted significantly, the 30 - year Treasury still has liquidity advantages, and the demand for the 30 - year Treasury will improve with the bond market rebound [2]. Summary by Related Content 1. Widening of the 30 - 10 Spread since the Third Quarter - From late July to mid - September, the 30 - 10 spread rose from 20BP to 30BP. From mid - September to October 14, it further widened by 13BP to 43BP, returning to the level in September 2022 [3]. 2. Long - term Characteristics and Historical Performance of the 30 - 10 Spread - The 30 - 10 spread shows a long - term mean - reversion trend. From 2006 - 2023, the average spread was 56BP, with an upper limit of 70 - 80BP (maximum over 90BP in early 2009) and a lower limit of 20 - 30BP (minimum less than 20BP in mid - 2007). In most cases, it moves inversely to the 10 - year Treasury yield. In 2024, it broke through the historical low, compressing to around 10BP and oscillating in the [10BP - 30BP] range from 2024 to the first half of 2025 [6][7][8]. 3. Reasons for the Extreme Compression of the 30 - 10 Spread in the Past Two Years - The increase in the trading volume and proportion of 30 - year Treasuries led to a liquidity premium, which supported the spread compression. The reasons for the increased activity of 30 - year Treasuries include investors' increased demand for long - duration bonds due to economic concerns, the preference of insurance institutions for long - duration bonds, the large - scale issuance of 30 - year Treasuries, and the issuance of 30 - year Treasury ETFs [12][13]. 4. Marginal Changes in Factors Supporting Spread Narrowing in the Third Quarter - The macro - narrative has changed, with better - than - expected economic performance, reduced deflation expectations, and a strong equity market suppressing the bond market, weakening the demand for 30 - year Treasuries. The tax policy adjustment in August had a greater impact on the 30 - year Treasury yield. The trading volume proportion of ultra - long Treasuries has declined since August [20]. 5. Outlook for the 30 - 10 Spread - In the short term, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress again. The spread has adjusted significantly, the 30 - year Treasury still has liquidity advantages, and the demand for the 30 - year Treasury will improve with the bond market rebound. In the long - term, the probability of the spread returning below 20BP is small as the market's economic expectations improve and 20BP is at the lower limit of historical fluctuations [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Since the third quarter, the 30 - 10 spread has widened rapidly, which is related to the marginal changes in the factors compressing the spread. Looking forward, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress again. After the previous adjustment, the spread has returned to the level of the third quarter of 2022. The 30 - year treasury bond still has liquidity advantages, and the demand for 30 - year treasury bonds will improve marginally with the bond market rebound, which is conducive to the phased compression of the 30 - 10 spread [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Third - quarter widening of 30 - 10 spread - From July to mid - September, the 30 - 10 spread rose from 20BP to 30BP. From mid - September to October 14, it further widened to 43BP, returning to the level of September 2022 [3] 3.2 Long - term characteristics of 30 - 10 spread - The 30 - 10 spread shows a long - term mean - reversion trend. From 2006 to 2023, the 30 - 10 spread averaged 56BP, with an upper limit of 70 - 80BP and a lower limit of 20 - 30BP. In most cases, it moves in the opposite direction to the 10 - year treasury bond rate. In 2024, it broke through the historical extreme, once compressing to around 10BP and oscillating in the range of 10BP - 30BP until the first half of 2025 [6][7][10] 3.3 Reasons for the extreme compression of 30 - 10 spread in the past two years - The increase in the liquidity premium of 30 - year treasury bonds, driven by supply and demand factors, is the main reason. Factors include increased demand from fixed - income investors and insurance institutions, increased primary supply, and active trading of 30 - year treasury bond ETFs. In 2025, the weekly average trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds reached 700 billion yuan, and the proportion in all treasury bond trading volume rose to 40% [12][13] 3.4 Marginal changes in factors supporting spread narrowing in the third quarter - The macro - narrative has changed, including better - than - expected economic performance, the dissipation of deflation expectations, and the suppression of the bond market by the stock market. The tax policy adjustment in August had a more obvious impact on the 30 - year treasury bond yield. Since August 2025, the trading volume proportion of ultra - long treasury bonds has declined [20] 3.5 Spread outlook - In the short term, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress again. In the medium - to - long term, the probability of the 30 - 10 spread returning below 20BP is small [21]