1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Since the third quarter, the 30 - 10 spread has widened rapidly, which is related to the marginal changes in the factors compressing the spread. Looking forward, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress again. After the previous adjustment, the spread has returned to the level of the third quarter of 2022. The 30 - year treasury bond still has liquidity advantages, and the demand for 30 - year treasury bonds will improve marginally with the bond market rebound, which is conducive to the phased compression of the 30 - 10 spread [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Third - quarter widening of 30 - 10 spread - From July to mid - September, the 30 - 10 spread rose from 20BP to 30BP. From mid - September to October 14, it further widened to 43BP, returning to the level of September 2022 [3] 3.2 Long - term characteristics of 30 - 10 spread - The 30 - 10 spread shows a long - term mean - reversion trend. From 2006 to 2023, the 30 - 10 spread averaged 56BP, with an upper limit of 70 - 80BP and a lower limit of 20 - 30BP. In most cases, it moves in the opposite direction to the 10 - year treasury bond rate. In 2024, it broke through the historical extreme, once compressing to around 10BP and oscillating in the range of 10BP - 30BP until the first half of 2025 [6][7][10] 3.3 Reasons for the extreme compression of 30 - 10 spread in the past two years - The increase in the liquidity premium of 30 - year treasury bonds, driven by supply and demand factors, is the main reason. Factors include increased demand from fixed - income investors and insurance institutions, increased primary supply, and active trading of 30 - year treasury bond ETFs. In 2025, the weekly average trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds reached 700 billion yuan, and the proportion in all treasury bond trading volume rose to 40% [12][13] 3.4 Marginal changes in factors supporting spread narrowing in the third quarter - The macro - narrative has changed, including better - than - expected economic performance, the dissipation of deflation expectations, and the suppression of the bond market by the stock market. The tax policy adjustment in August had a more obvious impact on the 30 - year treasury bond yield. Since August 2025, the trading volume proportion of ultra - long treasury bonds has declined [20] 3.5 Spread outlook - In the short term, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress again. In the medium - to - long term, the probability of the 30 - 10 spread returning below 20BP is small [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The media sector outperformed the market in September 2025, with the Shenwan Media Index rising by 4.96%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 1.76 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 industries [2][19] - The gaming market showed a slight month-on-month revenue increase of 0.6% in August, driven by favorable policies, market sentiment, and AI applications [2][27] - The report highlights the importance of new product cycles and regulatory shifts in the gaming sector, as well as the potential for growth in advertising and film content due to improving economic conditions [4][107] Summary by Sections Market and Industry Review - In September 2025, the media sector ranked 5th among 31 industries, with a TTM-PE of 46.5x, placing it in the 95.9th percentile over the past five years [19][25] - The gaming sector saw 145 domestic and 11 imported games approved in September, with a total of 1,275 game licenses issued from January to September, marking a 23.2% year-on-year increase [27][29] Gaming Sector - The gaming market's revenue in August was 29.3 billion yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year but up 0.6% month-on-month, with mobile gaming revenue at 21.5 billion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year but up 0.8% month-on-month [35][36] - The report emphasizes the ongoing release of game licenses and the potential for growth driven by new product cycles and AI applications [27][28] Film and Television Sector - The total box office for September reached 2.661 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.8%, while the National Day box office fell by 12.8% to 1.835 billion yuan due to a lack of blockbuster films [45][58] - The report notes that the drama market maintained high viewership levels, with the top series achieving significant viewership numbers [67] AI Applications - The report discusses breakthroughs in AI technology, including Meta's advancements in RAG technology and OpenAI's release of Sora2, which supports high-quality video and audio generation [78][90] - The rapid development of AI applications is seen as a key driver for growth across various sectors, including gaming and advertising [4][107] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the gaming sector's new product cycles and the potential for recovery in advertising and film sectors, suggesting specific companies such as Kayi Network and Mango Super Media for investment [4][107] - The October investment portfolio includes Bilibili, Mango Super Media, Perfect World, and Focus Media, reflecting a positive outlook for these companies [4][112]

Financial Data Overview - In September, China's new social financing (社融) reached CNY 3.53 trillion, exceeding the expected CNY 3.27 trillion[2] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 1.29 trillion, slightly below the expected CNY 1.39 trillion[2] - M2 growth year-on-year was 8.4%, slightly below the expected 8.5%[2] Economic Trends - Social financing growth rate fell to 8.7%, with a year-on-year decrease of CNY 229.7 billion, indicating weak overall financing demand[5] - Corporate credit structure improved, with short-term loans increasing by CNY 250 billion year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans for residents increased by CNY 20 billion, reflecting positive effects from recent real estate policy adjustments[5][15] - M1 growth rate rose by 1.2 percentage points to 7.2%, indicating enhanced liquidity in the economy[5][25] Government and Fiscal Policy - Government financing through bonds contributed significantly to social financing, with CNY 1.19 trillion in new government bond financing, although this was CNY 347.1 billion less than the previous year[19] - Fiscal deposits decreased by CNY 604.2 billion, suggesting an acceleration in government spending[6][25] Future Outlook - Continued focus on fiscal policy strength and the impact of new policy financial instruments is necessary[6] - The real estate market's performance in the "golden September and silver October" period will be crucial for sustaining credit recovery[6]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][45] Core Insights - The report highlights two main themes for online retail in 2025: anti-involution and instant retail [6][22] - The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is expected to see a significant reduction in investment from various platforms, leading to a continued divergence in GMV performance [25][30] Summary by Sections 1. Online Retail Themes - The anti-involution theme focuses on reducing burdens for small and medium-sized merchants, with platforms like Pinduoduo and Douyin implementing lower commission rates [6][10] - Instant retail is characterized by a need for long-term investment and is currently facing losses across various platforms [17][20] 2. Double 11 Preview - Investment for Double 11 is expected to shrink significantly, with GMV performance anticipated to diverge among platforms [25][30] - Major platforms are extending their promotional cycles, with new entrants like Taobao Flash Sale and Xiaohongshu participating for the first time [31][34] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Alibaba and Kuaishou for their rapid development in AI-related second curve opportunities, while Pinduoduo is noted for its long-term competitive advantages despite short-term challenges [5][45]

Key Recommendations - The report highlights the social services industry, particularly focusing on the chain restaurant sector, recommending leading brands that offer good value for money in the dining and tea beverage segments [7] - The construction industry report emphasizes the necessity of cleanroom engineering as a critical component of AI infrastructure, with global demand for construction rapidly increasing [11] Industry and Company Insights - In the restaurant sector, the report notes that in September 2025, the stock prices of major restaurant brands faced pressure, with notable increases for brands like Xiaobai Xiaobai (+33%) and Yum Brands (+4%) [7] - The mid-year financial summary indicates that the tracked chain restaurant leaders saw a 29% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025, with a 16% revenue growth, outperforming the overall retail dining market growth of 4% [7] - The cleanroom engineering market is driven by the need for controlled environments in precision product manufacturing, with investments in cleanroom engineering typically accounting for 10-20% of total project costs [11] - The global cleanroom market is expected to grow due to increasing demands for semiconductor manufacturing and data center construction, particularly in North America, which is identified as a market with significant potential [11] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that in September 2025, the domestic restaurant revenue showed a slight year-on-year increase of 1%, recovering from previous months' declines [7] - The cleanroom engineering demand is expected to rise as companies like TSMC ramp up investments in the U.S., with TSMC planning an additional $100 billion investment, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the cleanroom sector [11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the cleanroom engineering space, such as Shenghui Integration and Yaxiang Integration, which are expected to benefit from the global semiconductor supply chain restructuring [12] - In the restaurant sector, it recommends investing in brands like Xiaobai Xiaobai, Gu Ming, and Mi Xue Group, which are positioned to capitalize on the recovery and growth in the dining market [9]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis [2][3][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [6][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand remain tight, with international prices staying high. China's potassium chloride production is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The phosphoric chemical industry is expected to maintain a high price level due to the scarcity of resources and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][5]. - The pesticide sector is anticipated to see a recovery in demand, driven by increased agricultural planting areas in South America and a rebound in inventory replenishment [4][8]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The domestic potassium chloride port inventory as of September 2025 is 1.7292 million tons, a decrease of 135.6 thousand tons year-on-year, representing a decline of 43.95% [1][26]. - The average market price for potassium chloride in China at the end of September is 3,237 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.43% but a year-on-year increase of 34.82% [1][41]. - Key recommendation includes focusing on "Yaji International," with expected potassium chloride production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [4][48]. Phosphoric Chemicals - The domestic supply-demand balance for phosphate rock is tight, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei at 1,040 yuan/ton and in Yunnan at 970 yuan/ton, both stable month-on-month [2][50]. - The report highlights the long-term price stability of phosphate rock due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, with a market price of 900 yuan/ton maintained for over two years [2][5]. - Recommended companies include "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group," which have rich phosphate reserves [5]. Pesticides - The pesticide sector is expected to recover as the "Zhengfeng Zhijuan" three-year action plan is initiated, with a significant increase in demand due to rising agricultural planting areas in South America [4][8]. - The price of glyphosate has been on the rise, reaching 27,700 yuan/ton by October 14, an increase of 4,500 yuan/ton since April, representing a 19.40% rise [4][8]. - Key recommendations include "Yangnong Chemical" and "Lier Chemical," which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in pesticide prices [8].

评论： 通胀数据快评 PPI 环比连续两个月为 0 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月15日 事项： 10 月 15 日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 9 月 CPI 同比-0.3%，预期-0.2%，前值-0.4%；环比 0.1%， 预期 0.2%，前值 0%。中国 9 月 PPI 同比下降 2.3%，预期下降 2.3%，前值下降 2.9%；环比继续持平。 国内价格改善迹象延续。从本期数据来看，海外通胀仍对国内价格改善起到一定支撑作用，例如 PPI 当中 偏海外定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the cleanroom engineering industry [1] Core Insights - Cleanroom engineering is a critical component in the AI infrastructure, with global construction demand rapidly increasing [2] - The global cleanroom market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing precision requirements in industrial products and the expansion of semiconductor manufacturing [51][56] - The cleanroom engineering market is projected to reach $10.04 billion by 2025 and $14.16 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.1% [56] Summary by Sections Cleanroom Engineering Overview - Cleanrooms provide controlled environments necessary for the production of precision products, including semiconductor manufacturing and data center construction [2] - Cleanroom and facility engineering typically accounts for 10-20% of total investment in semiconductor production [47] Global Chip Expansion and Cleanroom Demand - The expansion of global chip production is driven by two main factors: supply chain security and AI computing power [3] - The North American market is identified as having the highest potential for cleanroom demand, particularly due to significant investments from companies like TSMC [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Shenghui Integration and Yaxiang Integration, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing expansion in the semiconductor supply chain [5] Market Dynamics - The cleanroom market is characterized by high competition barriers, with strong ties between engineering service providers and their clients [6] - The electronic industry accounts for over 54% of cleanroom demand, highlighting the sector's critical need for controlled environments [14][16] Future Trends - The report emphasizes the trend towards increasing precision in industrial products, which will continue to drive the growth of the cleanroom market [56] - The construction of cleanrooms is becoming more complex, requiring advanced engineering services to meet stringent environmental control standards [59]