证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 房地产行业专题 优于大市 香港楼市复苏的复盘、展望与借鉴 长周期视角下 2025 年香港楼市复盘。2025 年香港私人住宅成交量+21%，为 2013 年以来的第二高水平，连续两年规模上涨；价格指数自 3 月确认底部后 连续三个季度企稳回升，较底部回升 4.8%，全年+3.3%；租金指数全年+4.3%， 已超过 2019 年达到历史新高。本轮复苏呈典型的"量在价先"，成交量处 于历史高分位，价格较 2021 年 9 月的历史高点仍有大约 25%的回撤，目前大 约在 2016 年三季度的位置水平。 比较 1997-2003 和 2021-2025 两轮下跌周期，前者属于"资产泡沫破裂+本 地金融危机"，为极端信用收缩情形，后者属于对"估值回调+宏观利率变 化"的反应。由于下跌原因的不同， 两者回撤时间、跌幅、冲击力等方面 均有差异，前者回撤周期 69 个月，跌幅达 66%，后者回撤周期 42 个月，跌 幅达 28%。 2021-2025 下跌周期显然更加温和，且目前复苏周期"政策+利率+需求+内地 红利"的共振幅度小于 2003 年，我们预计中期内香港房地产市场的复苏将 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 港股 2 月投资策略 优于大市 预计沃什的缩表交易不会持续，继续看好春季行情 3、消费领域：消费板块估值处于过去十年 1%分位数，市场预期过低且 后续有持续的改善空间，该板块的胜在稳健，而且走势相对独立，受国 际局势动荡影响较小； 4、能源：大宗商品的涨价将从贵金属、金属，逐步蔓延到能源、航运 等领域，也值得关注，尤其是能源资产价格尚处在低位，并且可以对冲 地缘局势的不确定性； 5、创新药：创新药业绩平稳，值得继续持有，后续一旦出现新 BD 项目 的释放，板块还有修复空间。 风险提示：地缘政治的不确定性，美国关税政策的不确定性，海外降息 幅度的不确定性，部分行业竞争格局的不确定性。 美国：沃什提名后引发了反向交易。当市场预期全年降息的逻辑过于一致 时，沃什的提名引发了缩表的预期并带来了美元指数的反弹。我们认为 当下为此担忧还尚早，由于美国上半年的时薪、消费、就业压力均较大，且 上半年通胀的压力不大，故而降息的必要性依然较高；另外，关于缩表的更 多信息要到 5 月份主席换届之后才将逐渐清晰。 今年 1 月份，美股上涨幅度显著小于新兴市场，因此我们认为将美元指数的 反弹看 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [6]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) in urban areas exceeded 20% in November, with Waymo completing a new round of financing amounting to 160 billion yuan [1][17]. - The report highlights significant advancements in smart driving technologies, with L2 and above penetration rates for passenger vehicles reaching 38% in November, a year-on-year increase of 22 percentage points [3]. - Key companies recommended for investment include XPeng Motors, JAC Motors, and Geely for complete vehicles, while Pony.ai and WeRide are recommended for L4 technologies [4]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Waymo completed a new round of financing of 160 billion yuan [1][17]. - Pony.ai partnered with Aitbot to develop high-end Robotaxi services [1]. - WeRide launched its self-developed general simulation platform, WeRide GENESIS [1]. - HoloMatic delivered unmanned mining trucks in bulk [1]. - Hesai Technology led the market in 3D LiDAR shipments for lawnmowers [1]. - XPeng Motors' AD Pro received a major upgrade, becoming the first to mass-produce based on a single Journey® 6M chip [1]. High-Frequency Core Data Updates - The penetration rate of 8MP cameras in passenger vehicles reached 51% in November 2025, up 31 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - NVIDIA's driving chip market share increased to 54.3% [2]. - The penetration rate of LiDAR in passenger vehicles reached 16.6%, a year-on-year increase of 10 percentage points [2]. Smart Driving - The penetration rate of passenger vehicles with L2 and above functions reached 38% in November, with urban NOA at 20.6% [3]. - Sensor penetration rates for front-view cameras, forward millimeter-wave radar, and LiDAR were 69.0%, 58.4%, and 16.6%, respectively [3]. - The penetration rate of driving domain controllers reached 37.2%, a year-on-year increase of 19 percentage points [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for complete vehicles include XPeng Motors, JAC Motors, and Geely [4]. - For L4 technologies, recommended companies are Pony.ai and WeRide [4]. - Recommended component suppliers include SUTENG for data acquisition and Horizon Robotics for data processing [4].

以"反内卷"促"企业合理利润率" 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月03日 2026年02月04日 目录 01 本轮内卷式竞争的起源与表现 02 本轮内卷式竞争的宏微观影响 03 企业合理利润率—宏观增长的微观动因 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 导言 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 证券分析师：董德志 02160933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø "内卷式"竞争的起源及表现 • 新范式下，需求偏弱与同质化扩张让存量市场竞争加速，企业内卷成为典型症候 Ø "内卷式"竞争的宏微观影响 • 一方面直接压低价格、挤压企业利润率，另一方面间接抑制消费与创新 Ø "内卷式"竞争如何破解？ • 短期来看，仍需依靠行政协调破除地方保护与行业壁垒， "反内卷"还要继续 • 长期来看，更应抓住"宏观问题"背后的"微观动因" ，以企业合理利润率为政策锚，助推政府、企业、居民、 资本市场进入良性循环，搭建宏微观桥梁 Ø 为什么要以利润率为锚？ • 合理利润率既防止"倾销"引发恶性内卷的底线，也约束"垄断" ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月02日 2026年02月03日 2026年02月04日 电子行业周报 优于大市 AI 应用爆点频出，算力链重回主线 AI 应用爆点频出，海外算力链重回主线。过去一周上证下跌 0.44%，电子下 跌 2.51%，子行业中半导体下跌 0.90%，电子化学品下跌 5.87%。同期恒生科 技、费城半导体、台湾资讯科技下跌 1.38%、上涨 0.51%、上涨 0.55%。过去 一周，由 Clawdbot 所引致的对于"AI 智能体正加速场景落地"的预期成为 市场热点，同时，国内互联网大厂陆续启动"红包大战"争抢大模型流量入 口。在此背景下，算力资源不单单成为军备竞赛的着力点，更是在各类 AI 应用试水过程中逐步成为"卖方型市场"，成为 AI 应用的核心预算约束， 算力链有望在强业绩支撑下重回科技投资主线，继续推荐：澜起科技、胜宏 科技、工业富联、蓝特光学、德明利、华勤技术、翱捷科技、芯原股份、寒 武纪、中芯国际、晶丰明源等。 海外原厂业绩保持强劲，建议关注存储产业链相关公司。存储周期持续上行， 原厂业绩保持强劲：AI 驱动企业级 SSD 量价齐升，闪迪 2QFY26 营收环比增 长 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [1][11]. Core Insights - AI applications are rapidly emerging, with the computing power chain returning to the main investment focus. The market is witnessing a "seller's market" for computing resources, driven by the increasing demand for AI applications [1]. - The storage cycle is on an upward trend, with strong performance from overseas manufacturers. Companies like SanDisk and Samsung have reported significant revenue growth, driven by AI demand [2]. - Texas Instruments (TI) anticipates a median revenue increase in Q1 2026, supported by a continuous rise in order volume, particularly in the industrial and data center markets [3]. - Apple reported record quarterly performance, with revenues exceeding market expectations, particularly in the iPhone segment, which saw a 23% year-over-year increase [4]. - Global wafer expansion is entering an upward cycle, with ASML and LAM Research exceeding expectations in their quarterly performances, indicating a strong demand driven by AI [5]. Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Overview - The electronic industry experienced a decline of 2.51% in the past week, with semiconductors down 0.90% and electronic chemicals down 5.87% [12]. Semiconductor Sector - Companies such as Zhongxin International, Aojie Technology, and Demingli are recommended for investment due to their strong performance and growth potential in the semiconductor sector [11]. Storage Industry - The storage cycle is strengthening, with companies like Demingli and Jiangbolong showing significant revenue growth, driven by AI and data center demands [2]. Consumer Electronics - Apple’s revenue reached $143.76 billion in Q4 2025, with a 16% year-over-year increase, driven by strong iPhone sales and services [4]. Equipment and Materials - ASML and LAM Research reported strong quarterly results, indicating a robust demand for advanced logic and storage equipment, suggesting a positive outlook for the equipment sector [5].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-03 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4067.73 | 14127.10 | 4660.10 | 15290.00 | 4148.91 | 1471.06 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.29 | 2.19 | 1.17 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 1.39 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11107.20 | 14335.11 | 6666.26 | 4888.38 | 6773.19 | 988.26 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 36 $\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$] 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观经济深度报告-有形之手（1）：财政 ABC 之"四本账" 固定收益深度:固收+系列报告之十 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry, indicating expected performance above the market index by more than 10% [5][40]. Core Insights - The media industry has shown a positive trend, with a 0.32% increase, outperforming both the CSI 300 (0.08%) and the ChiNext Index (-0.09%) during the week of January 26 to January 30 [1][11]. - Key highlights include the popularity of the AI project Clawdbot, the release of the DeepSeek-OCR2 document recognition model, and the success of new products from Pop Mart [2][4][17]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications and gaming IPs, suggesting a focus on AI marketing and gaming sectors for investment opportunities [4][36]. Industry Performance - The media sector ranked 9th in terms of performance among all sectors during the week, with notable gainers including Tiandi Online (51%), Hengdian Film (32%), and InSai Group (28%) [11][12]. - Conversely, companies like Giant Network and Baida Qiancheng experienced significant declines [11][12]. Key Data Tracking - The box office for the week was 257 million yuan, with top films including "Zootopia 2" (41 million yuan, 16.0% market share) and "Water Pipe" (63 million yuan, 13.8% market share) [3][19]. - In the gaming sector, the top three mobile games by revenue in December 2025 were Point Interactive's "Whiteout Survival," Lemon Micro's "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story," and Point Interactive's "Kingshot" [26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI applications and the gaming sector for potential investment opportunities, particularly in AI marketing and gaming products that leverage AI technology [4][36]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Giant Network, G-bits, and K-Young Network, among others [4][36].

- The market saw a significant rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a V-shaped recovery, and hot themes like space photovoltaics and commercial aerospace experiencing a full rebound[1] - On February 3, 2026, the market saw a broad-based rise, with the CSI 500 index performing well among scale indices, the STAR 100 index performing well among sector indices, and the CSI 500 Growth index performing well among style indices[2] - The mechanical, defense, building materials, basic chemicals, and steel industries performed well, while the banking, non-bank, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and electric utilities industries performed poorly[2] - Market sentiment on February 3, 2026, showed 82 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 23 stocks hitting the daily limit down, with a sealing rate of 78% and a continuous board rate of 36%[2] - As of February 2, 2026, the balance of margin financing and securities lending was 27,091 billion yuan, with a margin financing balance of 26,927 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 164 billion yuan[2] - The ETF with the highest premium on February 2, 2026, was the G60 Innovation ETF by Shenwan Lingxin, with a premium of 1.83%, while the ETF with the highest discount was the Nonferrous Metals ETF by Huatai-PineBridge, with a discount of 3.89%[3] - The median annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures over the past year were 0.63%, 3.79%, 11.15%, and 13.61%, respectively[3] - On February 3, 2026, the annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures were 0.48%, 1.41%, 0.53%, and 2.94%, respectively[3] - The stocks with the most institutional attention over the past week were Ying Tang Zhikong, Ninebot-WD, Shanghai Bank, Gelisi, Tongli Shares, Taienkang, Wangsu Technology, and ST Jingji, with Ying Tang Zhikong being surveyed by 196 institutions[4] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from institutional seats on February 3, 2026, were Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Sanbian Technology, Robotec, Hunan Gold, Aerospace Development, Zhongchao Holdings, Autoway, Dikang Shares, Shuangjie Electric, and Hongqiang Shares[4] - The top ten stocks with net outflows from institutional seats on February 3, 2026, were Junda Shares, Wanfeng Shares, Jept, Southern Network Energy, Urban Development, Tongyu Communications, Zerun New Energy, Weiling Shares, Liujin Technology, and Intercontinental Oil and Gas[4]

- The CSI 500 Index performed well, with a rise of 3.11%[6] - The STAR 100 Index performed well, with a rise of 3.38%[6] - The CSI 500 Growth Index performed well, with a rise of 2.61%[6] - The mechanical, defense, building materials, basic chemicals, and steel industries performed well, with returns of 4.55%, 4.39%, 3.54%, 3.28%, and 3.25%, respectively[7] - The banking, non-bank, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and electric power public utilities industries performed poorly, with returns of -0.81%, 0.06%, 0.24%, 0.44%, and 0.69%, respectively[7] - The TOPcon battery, BC battery, new energy equipment, rare earth, and photovoltaic concepts performed well, with returns of 8.01%, 7.11%, 6.36%, 6.09%, and 5.99%, respectively[10] - The central enterprise bank, yellow wine, bank selection, soybean, and swine fever vaccine concepts performed poorly, with returns of -1.63%, -0.73%, -0.66%, -0.47%, and -0.41%, respectively[10] - The number of stocks that hit the daily limit was 82, and the number of stocks that hit the daily limit was 23[13] - The closing return of stocks that hit the daily limit yesterday was 4.35%, and the closing return of stocks that hit the daily limit yesterday was -1.26%[14] - The sealing rate was 78%, an increase of 17% from the previous day, and the continuous board rate was 36%, an increase of 16% from the previous day[17] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending was 27,091 billion yuan, of which the balance of margin financing was 26,927 billion yuan, and the balance of securities lending was 164 billion yuan[19] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending accounted for 2.7% of the circulating market value, and the margin financing and securities lending transactions accounted for 9.3% of the market turnover[22] - The G60 Innovation ETF Shenwan Lingxin had the highest premium, with a premium of 1.83%, and the non-ferrous ETF Huatai PineBridge had the highest discount, with a discount of 3.89%[23] - The median annualized discount rates of the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures over the past year were 0.63%, 3.79%, 11.15%, and 13.61%, respectively[28] - The annualized discount rate of the main contract of the SSE 50 stock index futures on the day was 0.48%, the annualized discount rate of the main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures on the day was 1.41%, the annualized discount rate of the main contract of the CSI 500 stock index futures on the day was 0.53%, and the annualized discount rate of the main contract of the CSI 1000 stock index futures on the day was 2.94%[28] - The stocks with the highest net inflows from institutional seats were Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Sanbian Technology, Robotec, Hunan Gold, Aerospace Development, Zhongchao Holdings, Autoway, Dikang Holdings, Shuangjie Electric, and Hongqiang Holdings[37] - The stocks with the highest net outflows from institutional seats were Junda Holdings, Wanfeng Holdings, Jept, Southern Network Energy, Urban Construction Development, Tongyu Communications, Zerun New Energy, Weiling Holdings, Liujin Technology, and Intercontinental Oil and Gas[37] - The stocks with the highest net inflows from Northbound Trading were Robotec, Tongyu Communications, Dikang Holdings, Junda Holdings, Hunan Gold, Hailanxin, Far East Holdings, Zhongchao Holdings, Autoway, Southern Network Energy, and Urban Construction Development[38] - The stocks with the highest net outflows from Northbound Trading were Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Yuguang Gold and Lead, Zhejiang Wenlian, Jept, Aerospace Development, Intercontinental Oil and Gas, Juguang Technology, Taihao Technology, Litong Electronics, and others[38]