证券研究报告 | 2025年07月03日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-07-02 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3454.79 | 10412.62 | 3943.68 | 11859.99 | 2991.26 | 982.63 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.08 | -0.60 | 0.02 | -0.64 | -1.23 | -1.22 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 5431.30 | 8338.36 | 2466.37 | 3018.38 | 3937.80 | 239.91 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观快评:宏观经济数据前瞻-2025 年 6 月宏观经济指标预期一览 策略专题:ESG 产品月报(2025.7)-ESG 主动基金业绩优异 策略专题:主题策略专题 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Index Dividend Points Estimation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates the dividend points of index constituents to account for the natural decline in index levels caused by dividend ex-dates, which is critical for accurately calculating the basis and premium/discount levels of stock index futures[12][40][43] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Formula**: $$ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount of Constituent Stock}}{\text{Total Market Value of Constituent Stock}} \times \text{Constituent Stock Weight} \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $$ - \(N\): Number of constituent stocks - Dividend amount, total market value, and weight are calculated for each constituent stock[40] 2. **Steps**: - Identify constituent stocks and their weights - For stocks with announced dividend amounts and ex-dates, use the provided data - For stocks without announced data, estimate dividend amounts using historical net profit and payout ratios, and predict ex-dates using historical patterns[41][46][50] - Adjust weights dynamically based on daily price changes using the formula: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{n0} \times (1 + r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{i})} $$ - \(w_{n0}\): Initial weight of stock \(n\) - \(r_{n}\): Non-adjusted return of stock \(n\) since the last weight update[44][45] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates high accuracy for indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300, with prediction errors generally within 5 points. However, the error for the CSI 500 index is slightly larger, around 10 points[56][60] Model Backtesting Results - **Index Dividend Points Estimation Model**: - SSE 50 Index: Prediction error ~5 points[60] - CSI 300 Index: Prediction error ~5 points[60] - CSI 500 Index: Prediction error ~10 points[60] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Net Profit Prediction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict net profit dynamically based on historical profit distribution patterns to estimate dividend amounts for constituent stocks[46][49] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Classify companies into "stable" and "unstable" profit distribution categories based on historical data 2. For stable companies, use historical profit distribution patterns for prediction 3. For unstable companies, use the previous year's profit as the prediction value[49][51] **Factor Evaluation**: The dynamic prediction method effectively captures profit trends for most companies, providing a reliable basis for dividend estimation[49] - **Factor Name**: Dividend Payout Ratio Prediction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Use historical payout ratios to estimate the current year's payout ratio for companies without announced data[50] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. If the company paid dividends last year, use last year's payout ratio 2. If no dividends were paid last year, use the average payout ratio of the past three years 3. If the company has never paid dividends, assume no dividends for the current year 4. Cap the payout ratio at 100% if it exceeds this threshold[52] **Factor Evaluation**: Historical payout ratios provide a stable and effective basis for prediction, especially for companies with consistent dividend policies[50][52] - **Factor Name**: Ex-Dividend Date Prediction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict ex-dividend dates using historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates, with adjustments for outliers[50][55] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. If the ex-dividend date is announced, use the provided date 2. If not announced, estimate based on historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates 3. Apply default dates (e.g., July 31, August 31, or September 30) if historical data is insufficient or inconsistent[55] **Factor Evaluation**: The method captures the majority of ex-dividend dates accurately, with over 90% of companies completing dividends by the end of July[55] Factor Backtesting Results - **Net Profit Prediction Factor**: High accuracy for stable companies; less reliable for companies with volatile profit distributions[49] - **Dividend Payout Ratio Prediction Factor**: Effective for companies with consistent payout policies; less applicable for companies with irregular dividend histories[50][52] - **Ex-Dividend Date Prediction Factor**: Accurately predicts dates for over 90% of companies, with most dividends completed by July[55]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Core Insights - The domestic marine economy is entering a new phase of high-quality development, supported by significant policy backing and an enhanced strategic position. Recent government policies provide a solid legal foundation for macro guidance, strategic planning, and sustainable development of the marine economy, which is increasingly contributing to GDP, indicating strong resilience and broad prospects [3] - Deep-sea technology is accelerating as a new engine for economic growth under the context of new productive forces. Various national-level research projects are being implemented to promote the coordinated development of the entire industrial chain, including deep-sea exploration, resource development, and equipment manufacturing. China has achieved multiple technological breakthroughs in areas such as deep-sea drilling vessels and manned submersibles, laying the foundation for commercial development [3][25] - The shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry is a core force supporting the development of the marine economy and represents future investment opportunities. This industry, as a key component of high-end equipment manufacturing, is capital and technology-intensive, providing technical equipment for maritime transportation, marine resource development, and national defense construction [3][49] - The marine economy theme index has shown strong performance, with investment opportunities in deep-sea oil and gas and marine ecological services. As of July 1, 2025, the marine economy index and marine technology index increased by 9.3% and 13.7%, respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the marine economy sector [3] - The marine economy's contribution to GDP has been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6% over the past five years, outpacing overall GDP growth [9] Marine Economy Policy and Industry Context - In recent years, a series of policies have been introduced by national and local governments to promote marine economic development. The "14th Five-Year Plan" for marine economic development provides macro guidance and strategic planning, while the revised Marine Environmental Protection Law offers legal support for sustainable development [8] - The marine production value reached 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, with the marine industry value added at 4.37 trillion yuan [8][24] Deep-Sea Technology Industry Chain - The deep-sea technology sector is supported by government initiatives, with significant breakthroughs in deep-sea exploration and resource development technologies. The market size for deep-sea technology is expected to reach 3.25 trillion yuan by 2025 [25][41] Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Equipment Investment Insights - The shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry is crucial for providing technical equipment for maritime transportation and resource development. The industry encompasses upstream raw material suppliers, midstream equipment manufacturers, and downstream application markets [49][50] - The marine engineering equipment industry is experiencing growth opportunities due to the continuous development of marine economic strategies and global marine economic trends [49]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of 49-59 CNY per share [4][3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading full-chain B2B foreign trade service provider, benefiting from the increasing demand for overseas expansion among enterprises, which leads to a continuous influx of customers [3][2]. - The company has launched AI tools that enhance operational efficiency and contribute to revenue growth, with significant revenue increases from AI applications [3][21]. - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.668 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.31%, while the net profit is expected to reach 451 million CNY, up 19.09% year-on-year [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1996, primarily operates the "Made-in-China.com" platform, providing comprehensive B2B foreign trade services [11][13]. - The company has introduced AI applications to enhance its service offerings, with the AI tool "Mai Ke" contributing significantly to revenue [11][21]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the past three years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.55% for net profit [1][16]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 80.29%, reflecting a year-on-year increase, while operating cash flow is expected to continue its upward trend [23][26]. Industry Overview - The cross-border B2B e-commerce market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% from 2018 to 2022, reaching a market size of 6.1 trillion CNY by 2024 [2][36]. - The increasing number of enterprises engaging in overseas business is creating significant growth opportunities for platforms like the company's [60][36]. Competitive Landscape - The company ranks second in the industry, following Alibaba's international station, with over 20 million registered buyers on its platform [52][50]. - The competitive advantage is further strengthened by the company's early adoption of AI technologies, which enhance service efficiency and customer retention [3][47].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][14]. Core Viewpoints - The approval of D-Allulose in China is expected to drive market demand growth, as it aligns with international standards in the functional sweetener sector [3][5]. - D-Allulose offers similar taste to sucrose, low calories, and various functional benefits, filling a gap in China's functional sweetener market [3][10]. - The company currently has a production capacity of 15,000 tons of D-Allulose crystals and plans to build an additional capacity of nearly 20,000 tons in Thailand to meet growing domestic and international demand [4][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leader in the fields of prebiotics, dietary fibers, and healthy sweeteners (D-Allulose) in China, targeting mid-to-high-end markets with clients including major beverage companies [4][14]. - Current product sales exceed supply, with stable prices, and upcoming expansions are expected to enhance revenue and profit from 2025 to 2027 [4][14]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 346 million, 431 million, and 503 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 40.8%, 24.7%, and 16.6% [4][14]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 28.0, 22.5, and 19.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][14]. Market Potential - The global D-Allulose market has grown from 33 million USD in 2019 to 173 million USD in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.26%, and is expected to reach 545 million USD by 2030 [9][10]. - D-Allulose is seen as a promising sugar substitute due to its advantages in taste, safety, and functionality, with significant potential to replace traditional sugar in the market [10][14].

1. Core Views - ESG public fund products: The number of new issuances fluctuates significantly, peaking in November 2024, January, and March 2025, and dropping sharply in February and April 2025. The overall scale has grown in the past two years but with obvious differentiation, ESG strategy funds and environmental protection theme funds leading in growth, while pure ESG theme, social responsibility, and corporate governance theme funds developing steadily [7]. - ESG bond products: The issuance amount fluctuates greatly, reaching a peak of 172.155 billion yuan in April 2025 and the second - highest of 146.994 billion yuan in June. There are 7 high - rated (Grade 4 and above) ESG bonds, mainly including green bonds and sustainable development - linked bonds [7]. - ESG bank wealth management products: The issuance volume shows an "S - shaped" trend, reaching a peak of 104 in December 2024 and then recovering in March 2025. The number of existing products has increased from 368 in June 2023 to 948 in June 2025, with the pure ESG theme growing steadily, the social responsibility theme rising significantly, and the environmental protection theme performing weakly [7]. - Public ESG product classification tracking: In equity funds and partial - equity hybrid funds, the scale of pure ESG theme is stable with high concentration at the top; the scale of environmental protection theme is declining; the scale of social responsibility theme is slowly decreasing with a stable pattern; the scale of corporate governance theme is stable with high concentration at the top. In bond funds, the environmental protection theme and ESG strategy theme have grown in the first quarter of 2025, while the social responsibility theme has shrunk. The scale of FOF funds is generally declining, and REITS funds are mainly in the environmental protection and social responsibility themes [8]. - Representative products: Huabao Core Advantage had a 17.43% return in June, with an average equity position of about 90% and heavy positions in information technology and industry. Boshi Return Strict Selection had a 15.49% return in June, with a stable equity position of 95% and heavy positions in information technology and optional consumption. Huatai - Peregrine Quality Selection had a 15.48% return in June, with the equity position dropping to 60% and heavy positions in information technology [8]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 ESG Product Overview 2.1.1 ESG Public Fund Products - New issuance: From June 2024 to June 2025, the number of new monthly issuances fluctuates, peaking in November 2024, January, and March 2025, and dropping sharply in February and April 2025 [21]. - Scale: From June 2023 to June 2025, the number and scale have increased, with ESG strategy funds and environmental protection theme funds growing significantly, while pure ESG theme, social responsibility, and corporate governance theme funds developing steadily, and the number of corporate governance theme products remaining at 20 [21]. 2.1.2 ESG Bond Products - Issuance amount: From June 2024 to June 2025, it fluctuates greatly, reaching a peak of 172.155 billion yuan in April 2025 and the second - highest of 146.994 billion yuan in June 2025, with a low of 37.844 billion yuan in January 2025 [26]. - High - rated bonds: There are 7 ESG bonds with an issuer ESG rating of A or above, covering medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and asset - backed securities, mainly green bonds and sustainable development - linked bonds [26]. 2.1.3 ESG Bank Wealth Management Products - Issuance volume: From June 2024 to June 2025, it shows an "S - shaped" trend, peaking at 104 in December 2024, dropping in January and February 2025, and rising again in March 2025 [35]. - Existing products: The number has increased from 368 in June 2023 to 948 in June 2025, with the pure ESG theme growing steadily, the social responsibility theme rising significantly, and the environmental protection theme performing weakly [35]. 2.2 Public ESG Product Classification Tracking 2.2.1 Public Equity Funds + Partial - Equity Hybrid Funds - Pure ESG theme: The scale is stable from June 2023 to March 2025, with high concentration at the top. In June, 82 products had positive returns, and "Caixin Sustainable Development Theme" had a 12.69% return [48]. - Environmental protection theme: The scale is declining from June 2023 to March 2025, with high product dispersion. In June, 390 products had positive returns, and 62 products had a return of over 6% [55]. - Social responsibility theme: The scale is slowly declining from June 2023 to March 2025, with a stable market pattern. In June, 196 products had positive returns, and 2 products had a return of over 15% [62]. - Corporate governance theme: The scale is stable from June 2023 to March 2025, with high concentration at the top. In June, 24 products had positive returns, and "Huabao Core Advantage A" had a 17.43% return [69]. 2.2.2 Public Bond Funds - Scale change: In the first quarter of 2025, the environmental protection theme grew by 12.994 billion yuan (+88.06%), the ESG strategy theme grew by 8.963 billion yuan (+51.13%), and the social responsibility theme shrank by 12.445 billion yuan (-12.22%) [77]. - Performance: Among bond funds with a scale of over 2 billion, "Huatai - Peregrine Double - Xin Income A" had a 1.06% return in June [77]. 2.2.3 Public FOF Funds - Scale change: From June 2023 to March 2025, the scale fluctuates and generally declines. The establishment of "Dongfanghong Xinyue Steady Allocation C" in the third quarter of 2024 pushed up the scale, which then declined [85]. - Performance: Among FOF funds with a scale of over 0.5 billion, "Huatai - Peregrine Core Selection Six - Month Holding A" had a 4.58% return in June [85]. 2.2.4 Public REITS Funds - Theme scale: The environmental protection theme has a scale of 21.883 billion yuan (70% share), and the social responsibility theme has a scale of 9.359 billion yuan (30% share). In June, 8 products had positive returns, and "Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT" had a 12.1% return [93]. 2.3 Representative Product Situation - Huabao Core Advantage: Had a 17.43% return in June, with an average equity position of about 90%, heavy positions in information technology and industry, and a stable ESG rating of BB [111]. - Boshi Return Strict Selection: Had a 15.49% return in June, with a stable equity position of 95%, heavy positions in information technology and optional consumption, and an ESG rating fluctuating between BB and A [129]. - Huatai - Peregrine Quality Selection: Had a 15.48% return in June, with the equity position dropping to 60% since May, heavy positions in information technology, and an ESG rating dropping from AA to BB [147].

Group 1 - The report highlights significant fluctuations in the issuance of ESG public funds, with peaks in November 2024, January 2025, and March 2025, while experiencing sharp declines in February and April 2025. Overall, the scale of ESG funds has grown over the past two years, but with notable differentiation among types [2][11][12] - ESG strategy funds and environmental protection theme funds have shown leading growth rates, while pure ESG theme, social responsibility, and corporate governance theme funds have developed more slowly, with corporate governance products remaining stable at 20 [2][11][12] - The issuance of ESG bonds has also experienced dramatic fluctuations, peaking at 172.155 billion yuan in April 2025 and reaching a second-highest issuance of 146.994 billion yuan in June 2025, with a low of only 37.844 billion yuan in January 2025 [2][16] Group 2 - The report indicates that the number of ESG bank wealth management products has shown an "S-shaped" trend, peaking at 104 products in December 2024 before declining, with a resurgence starting in March 2025. The number of existing products increased from 368 in June 2023 to 948 in June 2025 [2][23] - The report tracks the performance of various ESG public fund categories, noting that in June 2025, 82 products achieved positive returns, with the "Caitong Sustainable Development Theme" fund leading with a return of 12.69% [2][31] - The report also details the performance of representative ESG products, such as "Huabao Core Advantage," which achieved a return of 17.43% in June 2025, with an average equity position of approximately 90% [2][74] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of ESG public bond funds, noting that in the first quarter of 2025, the environmental protection theme fund saw a growth of 12.994 billion yuan (+88.06%), while the ESG strategy theme fund grew by 8.963 billion yuan (+51.13%) [2][52] - The report highlights that the ESG bank wealth management products have shown a steady increase in the number of existing products, indicating a growing market interest in ESG investment [2][23] - The report emphasizes the performance of ESG REITs, with environmental protection theme funds totaling 21.883 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 70% of the total, while social responsibility theme funds totaled 9.359 billion yuan, making up about 30% [2][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the securities industry [3][20]. Core Insights - The recent revision of the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" by the CSRC marks a significant shift in the regulatory landscape, emphasizing functional orientation over scale, promoting differentiated development, and enhancing comprehensive risk management [1][11]. - The report highlights that while the "Matthew Effect" continues to favor leading firms, smaller securities firms can find opportunities through differentiation in niche markets [2][14]. Summary by Sections Business Development - The new evaluation system balances scale and efficiency indicators, increasing the emphasis on ROE while expanding the coverage of traditional business income rankings from the top 20 to the top 30 [1][12]. - New development indicators are introduced to encourage growth in businesses with high equity asset ratios, benefiting firms with significant equity investments in self-operated, asset management, and fund distribution sectors [1][12]. Risk Control and Compliance - A tiered penalty mechanism is established to strictly control major risks, with significant violations directly classified as D-level, and a reduction in penalties for administrative violations [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of compliance incentives, which aim to balance investor protection with regulatory efficiency [2][13]. Industry Impact - The report anticipates a restructuring of the securities industry landscape, with leading firms solidifying their advantages while smaller firms leverage unique strategies to break into the top rankings [2][14]. - The focus on ROE improvement will be crucial for traditional leaders, while smaller firms can capitalize on emerging sectors like fund advisory and derivatives trading [2][14]. Market Performance - In June, the average daily trading volume in A-shares reached 1.336 trillion yuan, reflecting a 10.0% month-on-month increase and an 84.8% year-on-year increase [3][19]. - The IPO market saw 24 new listings raising 9.153 billion yuan, a 164.8% increase from the previous month, while refinancing reached 542.058 billion yuan, up 3963.9% [3][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading securities firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, as well as firms with strong traffic advantages like Dongfang Caifu and Guolian Minsheng [3][20].

Core Views - Industrial metals are experiencing high apparent demand growth, with copper and aluminum showing over 5% growth in the first half of the year, driven by electricity, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles, while real estate and export demand are declining [5][11] - The supply side remains orderly and controllable, leading to a continuous upward shift in price levels, with current inventories at historical lows and significant risks of short squeezes [5][11] - Mining companies are seeing increasing profits, and valuations remain low despite the market's divergence [5][11] Industrial Metals Analysis - The apparent demand for copper and aluminum is growing, with a 5% increase in demand in the first half of the year, driven by sectors like electricity and new energy vehicles, while real estate and export demand are declining [11] - The geopolitical factors and global supply-demand imbalance have led to historically low inventories, creating a risk of price spikes [11] - The report suggests that mining companies are benefiting from rising profits and low valuations, with a favorable outlook as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [5][12] Precious Metals Outlook - Gold prices have reached new highs and are expected to remain strong throughout the year, influenced by rising recession expectations in the U.S. and concerns over dollar credibility [6] - The report anticipates that geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures will continue to drive demand for gold, with central banks increasing their gold reserves [6] Energy Metals Insights - Lithium prices are currently at a low point, with a potential for a prolonged bottoming phase, while cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [7] - Nickel prices are projected to find support at around $15,000 per ton due to cost pressures from Indonesian nickel supply [7] Minor Metals and Strategic Metals - The report highlights the strategic importance of tungsten, with prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increased demand [9] - Uranium demand is projected to increase significantly as nuclear power generation expands, with supply remaining tight [9] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a selection of companies in the metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Northern Rare Earth Group, among others, as potential investment opportunities [9]