证券研究报告 | 2025年07月03日 2025 年上半年，A 股市场一波三折，年初至 1 月中旬受风险情绪压制快速下 跌，4 月初再度因美国所谓"对等关税"砸出市场"黄金坑"，整体呈现探 底修复态势，6 月下旬指数三连阳，6 月 26 日盘中 3462 点创年内新高。上 半年万得全 A、上证指数、沪深 300 分别上涨 5.83%、2.76%、0.03%。 分季度来看，一季度 A 股延续震荡筑底，整体表现弱于一致调查值。1 月受 企业盈利与海外不确定性拖累，资金观望情绪浓厚；2 月中美摩擦升温叠加 国内促消费政策发力，指数小幅反弹；3 月货币政策预期宽松，成长板块阶 段性活跃后转向防御风格。二季度市场重心回归基本面与政策博弈，4 月在 美加税冲击下急跌，政策底显现后快速修复；5 月指数反弹至前期阻力位后 震荡调整；6 月在红利兑现、中报预期升温及地缘风险扰动下，市场震荡中 略有上行，结构分化明显，成长风格占优。 风格：小微盘总体占优，大盘价值展韧性 2025 年上半年整体偏均衡稳定，半年维度看微盘强于小盘，小盘强于中盘和 大盘。上半年小盘成长相较大盘价值的风格切换较为频繁，小盘成长顺风期 与市场上涨期高度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) [5] Core Insights - The BSE has entered a dual-index era with a significant acceleration in IPO approvals, reflecting a more active market environment [1][4] - The total number of listed companies on the BSE reached 268, with a total market capitalization of 848.87 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 513.52 billion yuan, representing increases of 6.7% and 7.4% respectively [1][12] - The North Certificate 50 Index experienced a fluctuation but ultimately rose by 2.73% over the month, indicating a recovery trend [3][28] - The newly launched North Certificate Specialized and Innovative Index aims to fill the investment gap for specialized and innovative enterprises [3][35] Market Overview - The trading volume for June was 26.99 billion shares, with a total transaction amount of 607.93 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease in trading volume by 5.2% but a slight increase in transaction value by 0.5% [1][16] - The average daily margin balance reached 5.52 billion yuan, up 2.36% from the previous month [21] Valuation Metrics - As of June 30, the PE ratio for the North Certificate 50 Index was 49.45, placing it in the 92.34 percentile over the past two years, while the PB ratio was 9.72, in the 98.76 percentile [2][23] - The median PE ratios by industry show that the computer sector has the highest at 134 times, followed by telecommunications at 116 times and construction materials at 105 times [2][25] Industry Performance - The report indicates mixed performance across industries, with significant gains in media, transportation, defense, textiles, and electronics, all showing median increases of over 9% [3][39] - Conversely, industries such as pharmaceuticals, social services, environmental protection, food and beverage, beauty care, and agriculture experienced declines [3][39] New Listings and Market Dynamics - Two new companies were listed in June: Guangxin Technology and Jiaoda Tiefa, with a total of 131 companies updating their IPO application status [4][12] - The report highlights a trend of stricter regulations, increased market activity, and innovation-driven growth as key themes for the BSE [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights a positive investment strategy for the internet industry, recommending a focus on independent growth logic in AIGC and the music industry during a period of index fluctuations [1][3] - In June, the Hang Seng Technology Index recorded a 2.5% increase, while the Nasdaq Index rose by 6.8% [11] - The report notes that major internet companies saw stock price increases, with Meituan, Kingdee International, and Kingsoft being the top performers in Hong Kong stocks, achieving monthly gains of 38.2%, 25.5%, and 23% respectively [14] Group 2 - The report indicates that in the gaming sector, the number of game licenses approved in June reached a two-year high, with 158 licenses issued [40] - In the fintech sector, the reserve funds of payment institutions increased by 8.4% year-on-year in May, reaching 24,573.54 billion yuan [42] - The e-commerce sector is experiencing intense competition, with platforms continuing to offer benefits to merchants and increasing investments in instant retail to seek new growth [3][47] Group 3 - Tencent Music's acquisition of Ximalaya was finalized, with a total transaction value of approximately 12.6 billion USD [45] - The report mentions that Alibaba's international station saw a 42% year-on-year increase in orders from June to date, with GMV maintaining a nearly 30% strong growth [53] - The report emphasizes that the AI sector is benefiting from major companies' business scenarios, such as cloud computing and advertising, while short-term AI agents still require refinement [3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月03日 政府债务周度观察 三季度地方债计划发行 2.7 万亿 核心观点 固定收益周报 政府债净融资第 26 周（6/23-6/29）6714 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）2216 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 7.7 万亿，超出去年同期 4.3 万亿， 主要是置换隐债专项债错位和国债发行较快。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 26 周（6/23-6/29）5905 亿，第 27 周 （6/30-7/6）2574 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）广义赤字累计 5.9 万 亿，进度 50.1%。 国债第 26 周（6/23-6/29）净融资 1110 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）1999 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 3.4 万亿，进度 50.8%。 地方债净融资第 26 周（6/23-6/29）5604 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）216 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 4.4 万亿，超出去年同期 2.5 万亿。 新增一般债第 26 周（6/23-6/29）572 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in smart short-distance transportation and service robots, with a strong focus on innovation and intelligent technology [21][22] - The electric two-wheeler segment is expected to see significant growth, driven by the upgrade of old vehicles and new national standards that favor leading brands [2][4] - The global market for robotic lawn mowers is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% from 2022 to 2027 [3] - The all-terrain vehicle market is also expected to expand, with a projected market size of $15 billion by 2028 [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company started with electric balance and scooter products, leveraging Xiaomi's sales channels for rapid expansion, and has since diversified its product lines [21][22] - The revenue distribution in 2024 is projected to be 23.8% from electric balance and scooters, 50.8% from electric two-wheelers, 6.3% from robots, and 6.9% from all-terrain vehicles [4][22] Electric Two-Wheelers - The company focuses on software and intelligent features in its electric two-wheelers, continuously upgrading its smart systems [2] - The high-end electric two-wheeler market is expected to expand, with the company positioned to capture a significant share [2] Robotic Lawn Mowers - The company is adopting a boundary-free approach to lawn mowers, which is expected to enhance market penetration and sales [3] - The company has a competitive edge in the high-end market with its X3 series, which offers superior performance and charging capabilities [3] All-Terrain Vehicles - The all-terrain vehicle market is projected to grow, and the company is introducing a hybrid model to differentiate its offerings [3] - The company aims to improve its market share in the all-terrain vehicle segment, which currently stands at less than 5% [3] Financial Projections - The company expects significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 19.34 billion, 24.14 billion, and 30.49 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - The net profit forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.70 billion, 2.35 billion, and 3.14 billion yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月03日 政府债务周度观察 三季度地方债计划发行 2.7 万亿 核心观点 固定收益周报 政府债净融资第 26 周（6/23-6/29）6714 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）2216 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 7.7 万亿，超出去年同期 4.3 万亿， 主要是置换隐债专项债错位和国债发行较快。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 26 周（6/23-6/29）5905 亿，第 27 周 （6/30-7/6）2574 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）广义赤字累计 5.9 万 亿，进度 50.1%。 国债第 26 周（6/23-6/29）净融资 1110 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）1999 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 3.4 万亿，进度 50.8%。 地方债净融资第 26 周（6/23-6/29）5604 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7/6）216 亿。截至第 26 周（6/23-6/29）累计 4.4 万亿，超出去年同期 2.5 万亿。 新增一般债第 26 周（6/23-6/29）572 亿，第 27 周（6/30-7 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月03日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-07-02 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3454.79 | 10412.62 | 3943.68 | 11859.99 | 2991.26 | 982.63 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.08 | -0.60 | 0.02 | -0.64 | -1.23 | -1.22 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 5431.30 | 8338.36 | 2466.37 | 3018.38 | 3937.80 | 239.91 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观快评:宏观经济数据前瞻-2025 年 6 月宏观经济指标预期一览 策略专题:ESG 产品月报(2025.7)-ESG 主动基金业绩优异 策略专题:主题策略专题 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Index Dividend Points Estimation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates the dividend points of index constituents to account for the natural decline in index levels caused by dividend ex-dates, which is critical for accurately calculating the basis and premium/discount levels of stock index futures[12][40][43] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Formula**: $$ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount of Constituent Stock}}{\text{Total Market Value of Constituent Stock}} \times \text{Constituent Stock Weight} \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $$ - \(N\): Number of constituent stocks - Dividend amount, total market value, and weight are calculated for each constituent stock[40] 2. **Steps**: - Identify constituent stocks and their weights - For stocks with announced dividend amounts and ex-dates, use the provided data - For stocks without announced data, estimate dividend amounts using historical net profit and payout ratios, and predict ex-dates using historical patterns[41][46][50] - Adjust weights dynamically based on daily price changes using the formula: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{n0} \times (1 + r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{i})} $$ - \(w_{n0}\): Initial weight of stock \(n\) - \(r_{n}\): Non-adjusted return of stock \(n\) since the last weight update[44][45] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates high accuracy for indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300, with prediction errors generally within 5 points. However, the error for the CSI 500 index is slightly larger, around 10 points[56][60] Model Backtesting Results - **Index Dividend Points Estimation Model**: - SSE 50 Index: Prediction error ~5 points[60] - CSI 300 Index: Prediction error ~5 points[60] - CSI 500 Index: Prediction error ~10 points[60] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Net Profit Prediction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict net profit dynamically based on historical profit distribution patterns to estimate dividend amounts for constituent stocks[46][49] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Classify companies into "stable" and "unstable" profit distribution categories based on historical data 2. For stable companies, use historical profit distribution patterns for prediction 3. For unstable companies, use the previous year's profit as the prediction value[49][51] **Factor Evaluation**: The dynamic prediction method effectively captures profit trends for most companies, providing a reliable basis for dividend estimation[49] - **Factor Name**: Dividend Payout Ratio Prediction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Use historical payout ratios to estimate the current year's payout ratio for companies without announced data[50] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. If the company paid dividends last year, use last year's payout ratio 2. If no dividends were paid last year, use the average payout ratio of the past three years 3. If the company has never paid dividends, assume no dividends for the current year 4. Cap the payout ratio at 100% if it exceeds this threshold[52] **Factor Evaluation**: Historical payout ratios provide a stable and effective basis for prediction, especially for companies with consistent dividend policies[50][52] - **Factor Name**: Ex-Dividend Date Prediction Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict ex-dividend dates using historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates, with adjustments for outliers[50][55] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. If the ex-dividend date is announced, use the provided date 2. If not announced, estimate based on historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates 3. Apply default dates (e.g., July 31, August 31, or September 30) if historical data is insufficient or inconsistent[55] **Factor Evaluation**: The method captures the majority of ex-dividend dates accurately, with over 90% of companies completing dividends by the end of July[55] Factor Backtesting Results - **Net Profit Prediction Factor**: High accuracy for stable companies; less reliable for companies with volatile profit distributions[49] - **Dividend Payout Ratio Prediction Factor**: Effective for companies with consistent payout policies; less applicable for companies with irregular dividend histories[50][52] - **Ex-Dividend Date Prediction Factor**: Accurately predicts dates for over 90% of companies, with most dividends completed by July[55]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Core Insights - The domestic marine economy is entering a new phase of high-quality development, supported by significant policy backing and an enhanced strategic position. Recent government policies provide a solid legal foundation for macro guidance, strategic planning, and sustainable development of the marine economy, which is increasingly contributing to GDP, indicating strong resilience and broad prospects [3] - Deep-sea technology is accelerating as a new engine for economic growth under the context of new productive forces. Various national-level research projects are being implemented to promote the coordinated development of the entire industrial chain, including deep-sea exploration, resource development, and equipment manufacturing. China has achieved multiple technological breakthroughs in areas such as deep-sea drilling vessels and manned submersibles, laying the foundation for commercial development [3][25] - The shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry is a core force supporting the development of the marine economy and represents future investment opportunities. This industry, as a key component of high-end equipment manufacturing, is capital and technology-intensive, providing technical equipment for maritime transportation, marine resource development, and national defense construction [3][49] - The marine economy theme index has shown strong performance, with investment opportunities in deep-sea oil and gas and marine ecological services. As of July 1, 2025, the marine economy index and marine technology index increased by 9.3% and 13.7%, respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the marine economy sector [3] - The marine economy's contribution to GDP has been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6% over the past five years, outpacing overall GDP growth [9] Marine Economy Policy and Industry Context - In recent years, a series of policies have been introduced by national and local governments to promote marine economic development. The "14th Five-Year Plan" for marine economic development provides macro guidance and strategic planning, while the revised Marine Environmental Protection Law offers legal support for sustainable development [8] - The marine production value reached 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, with the marine industry value added at 4.37 trillion yuan [8][24] Deep-Sea Technology Industry Chain - The deep-sea technology sector is supported by government initiatives, with significant breakthroughs in deep-sea exploration and resource development technologies. The market size for deep-sea technology is expected to reach 3.25 trillion yuan by 2025 [25][41] Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Equipment Investment Insights - The shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry is crucial for providing technical equipment for maritime transportation and resource development. The industry encompasses upstream raw material suppliers, midstream equipment manufacturers, and downstream application markets [49][50] - The marine engineering equipment industry is experiencing growth opportunities due to the continuous development of marine economic strategies and global marine economic trends [49]