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ETF周报:上周沪深300ETF净赎回超2000亿元-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core View The report summarizes the performance, scale changes, net subscriptions/redemptions, valuation, margin trading, and fund managers of ETFs in the past week. It also mentions recent market events and new fund issuances [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs ETF Performance - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 0.95%. Among broad - based ETFs, the median return of CSI 500ETF was 4.34%, the highest. By sector, the median return of cyclical ETFs was 3.52%, the highest. By theme, the median return of photovoltaic ETFs was 6.87%, the highest [1][12][15]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redemptions - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 338.098 billion yuan, with the overall scale decreasing by 309.829 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, CSI 500ETF had the least net redemption of 8.427 billion yuan; by sector, cyclical ETFs had the most net subscriptions of 29.338 billion yuan; by theme, chip ETFs had the most net subscriptions of 12.774 billion yuan [2][27][30]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - In broad - based ETFs, the valuation quantiles of ChiNext and SSE 50ETF were relatively low. By sector, the valuation quantiles of large - finance and consumer ETFs were relatively moderate. Among sub - themes, the valuation quantiles of liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs were relatively low. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of consumer and bank ETFs decreased significantly [3][33][45]. ETF Margin Trading - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs decreased from 53.910 billion yuan to 53.456 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.276 billion shares to 2.303 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs in terms of average daily margin purchases and short - selling volume, Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs and CSI 500ETF had relatively high average daily margin purchases, while CSI 1000ETF and CSI 500ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [4][46][51]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - PineBridge ranked in the top three in terms of the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. This week, 6 ETFs will be issued, including Huaan CSI Non - ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF, ICBC Credit Suisse CSI All - Index Electric Power and Utilities ETF, etc. [5][52][55].
公募REITs周报(第51期):指数大幅上行,多只公募REITs终止发行-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the REITs market rose significantly, with the China Securities REITs Index up 1.7% week - on - week. New infrastructure, consumer, and municipal facilities REITs had prominent gains. The performance order of major indices in terms of weekly gains and losses was: China Securities Convertible Bonds > China Securities REITs > China Securities All - Bonds > CSI 300 [1]. - As of January 23, 2026, the dividend yield of equity - type REITs was 93BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 327BP [1]. - Since the beginning of this year, five public REITs have been terminated (withdrawn) on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. The public REITs market is gradually transforming towards "emphasizing operation and compliance", and projects with stable cash flows and strong operation and management capabilities will be more favored by the market in the future [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Trends - As of January 23, 2026, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (closing) Index was 806.72 points, with a weekly increase of 1.7% (from January 17 to January 23, 2026). It performed weaker than the China Securities Convertible Bonds Index (+2.9%) but stronger than the China Securities All - Bonds Index (+0.2%) and the CSI 300 Index (-0.6%). Since the beginning of the year, the order of major indices in terms of gains and losses was: China Securities Convertible Bonds (+8.7%) > China Securities REITs (+3.2%) > CSI 300 (+1.6%) > China Securities All - Bonds (+0.4%) [2][6]. - In the past year, the return rate of the China Securities REITs Index was -2.6%, and the volatility was 7.5%. The return rate was lower than that of the China Securities Convertible Bonds Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the China Securities All - Bonds Index. The volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bonds Index but higher than that of the China Securities All - Bonds Index. The total market value of REITs on January 23 was 228 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.66%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the previous week [2][8]. - In terms of different project attributes, the average weekly gains and losses of equity - type REITs and concession - type REITs were 2.9% and 1.8% respectively. In terms of different project types, there was a divergence in the rise and fall of each sector, with new infrastructure, consumer, and municipal facilities REITs leading the gains. The top three REITs in terms of weekly gains were CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT (+10.30%), Huaan Bailian Consumer REIT (+9.97%), and Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT (+7.27%) [3][15][19]. - In terms of different project types, new infrastructure REITs had the highest daily turnover rate during the period, with an average daily turnover rate of 1.0%. Transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume this week, accounting for 20.5% of the total REITs trading volume. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds this week were China Resources Commercial REIT (213.02 million yuan), Guojin CRCC REIT (76.03 million yuan), and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (72.96 million yuan) [3][21][22]. 3.2 Primary Market Issuance - From January 1 to January 23, 2026, there was 1 REITs product in the accepted stage, 1 in the in -quired stage, and 3 in the feedback stage on the exchanges. According to the official websites of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, the additional issuance of Fuling First - created Water Service Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund, Jianxin Jiarongyuan Rental Housing Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund, Chuangjin Hexin Electronic City Industrial Park Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund, Jianxin Jinfeng New Energy Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund, and Huaxia Wanwei Warehouse Logistics Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund were terminated or withdrawn [24]. - The public REITs market is changing from "emphasizing issuance" to "emphasizing operation and compliance". In the future, projects with stable cash flows and standardized operation and management capabilities will be more favored by the market [24]. 3.3 Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond - like and stock - like characteristics. As of January 23, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.3%. Different valuation indicators were used from the perspectives of bond - like and stock - like characteristics, including relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO [25]. - As of January 16, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 93BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 327BP [28]. 3.4 Industry News - The first national Torch REITs landed in Xiamen. CICC Xiamen Torch Industrial Park Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund officially entered the application stage, with underlying assets covering 10 industrial parks within the "one - district, multiple - parks" scope of Xiamen Torch High - tech Zone, with a total construction area of 481,300 square meters [4][36]. - Maoye Commercial plans to carry out the application and issuance of commercial real - estate public REITs. On January 23, Maoye Commercial Co., Ltd. announced that it would use some buildings of Chengdu Maoye Center in Tianfu Avenue North, High - tech Zone, Chengdu held by its wholly - owned subsidiary and related parties as underlying assets to carry out the application and issuance of commercial real - estate public REITs [4][36].
社会服务行业双周报(第123期):界加速布局银发经济,春运启幕、出行需求有望集中释放-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 01:41
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [3][28]. Core Insights - The silver economy is gaining traction with active policy support from multiple government departments aimed at fostering the development of elderly care services and enhancing consumption potential [2][17]. - The Spring Festival travel rush is anticipated to significantly boost travel demand, with projections of approximately 95 million air passengers during the period [2][20]. - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a reported increase of 1.52%, surpassing the market by 2.71 percentage points during the review period [1][12]. Industry Dynamics - Recent policies have been introduced to cultivate elderly care service providers, with companies like New Oriental and China Travel Group launching initiatives targeting the silver economy [2][17][18]. - The Spring Festival travel period is expected to see a substantial increase in passenger numbers, with a forecast of 22.4 million travelers in Hainan, marking a 5.3% increase year-on-year [2][19]. - The IPO activity in the chain industry remains robust, with companies like Yuanji Food and Guming Tea achieving significant milestones in store openings and financial performance [2][21]. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the social services sector include increases of 26.86% for Tongdao Liepin and 17.50% for Keri International during the review period [1][15]. - Conversely, Ctrip Group saw a decline of 18.63%, indicating volatility within the sector [1][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Duty Free, Guming, Huazhu Group, and Ctrip Group, among others, as potential investment opportunities [3][28]. - Long-term recommendations include companies like Meituan, Mijia Group, and various educational and travel service providers, reflecting a diversified approach to investment in the sector [3][28].
国信证券晨会纪要-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 00:57
Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report highlights the geopolitical shifts impacting asset pricing, particularly focusing on the U.S. involvement in Greenland as a strategic move for national security and resource control [8][9] - The report indicates that the EU's response to U.S. policies is limited due to its economic dependencies, particularly in pharmaceuticals and energy [8] - The analysis suggests a structural change in global asset pricing, with a shift towards hard assets and scarce resources as the new safety net for investments [9] Fixed Income Research - The public fund's convertible bond holdings decreased by 83 billion to 3,083 billion, a decline of 2.6%, which is less than the overall market contraction of 7% [16] - The average return for convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 was 0.86%, outperforming other active fund types, indicating a strong performance in a volatile market [17] - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of long-term bonds, with trading activity in this segment becoming notably active [27][28] Industry and Company Insights - The aerospace industry report emphasizes the potential for commercial space ventures, particularly in rocket recovery, indicating a competitive landscape [3] - The chemical industry analysis points to a tightening supply-demand situation in the potassium chloride market, with expectations for demand and prices to exceed forecasts in 2026 [3] - The real estate sector commentary reflects a downturn in 2025 but anticipates positive signals in early 2026, suggesting a potential recovery [3] Financial Engineering - The financial engineering report indicates a trend of funds shifting from passive to active management, with a notable increase in the allocation to sectors like banking and military [17] - The report highlights the performance of various funds, with a median net value growth of 11.04% for top-performing convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 [18] Market Trends - The macroeconomic weekly report shows a GDP growth of 5.0% for 2025, with a notable slowdown in Q4 to 4.5%, but signs of recovery are emerging [11] - The report on the short-term pure bond funds indicates a reversal in asset growth, with total assets rising to 1,082.1 billion, reflecting a resilient market despite broader economic challenges [21][22]
巨人网络:长青IP铸就基本盘,休闲赛道打开向上空间-20260126
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-26 00:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a strong R&D capability and a solid long-term operational experience, particularly with its evergreen IPs "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu" [3][31]. - The new product "Supernatural Action Group" has quickly gained popularity, showcasing significant long-term operational potential [3][38]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 53.7 billion, CNY 92.2 billion, and CNY 110.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 83.9%, 71.6%, and 20.3% [3][48]. Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of CNY 53.7 billion, net profit of CNY 24.1 billion - 2026: Revenue of CNY 92.2 billion, net profit of CNY 45.3 billion - 2027: Revenue of CNY 110.9 billion, net profit of CNY 51.0 billion [3][48]. - The company's gross margin is expected to remain high, around 90% for self-operated games [21][44]. - The report anticipates a decrease in the sales expense ratio due to rapid revenue growth, projecting it to be 26.0%, 24.5%, and 25.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [44][45]. Company Overview - Founded in 2004 by Shi Yuzhu, the company has evolved from its origins as Zhengtu Network and has established itself as a leading game developer in China [8][14]. - The company has a strong portfolio of self-developed games, which contribute significantly to its revenue, with a gross margin close to 90% [21][28]. - The management team is experienced, with key figures having over 20 years of tenure at the company, ensuring stability and continuity in leadership [11][12]. Market Position - The domestic gaming market is projected to exceed CNY 350 billion, with the company holding a market share of approximately 1.5% [14][18]. - The company ranks 29th among global mobile game publishers in terms of revenue for 2025, indicating a strong competitive position within the industry [14][18].
食品饮料行业2025年四季度基金持仓分析:食饮板块超配比例略有回升,乳品、预加工食品等获得增持
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-25 12:49
Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry maintains an "Outperform" rating [4][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio is 4.48%, with a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking eighth among Shenwan's primary industries. The sector continues to be overweight, with an overweight ratio increasing by 0.02 percentage points [1][11]. - The white liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but its overweight ratio has decreased. Conversely, the dairy, snacks, and seasoning sectors have seen an increase in fund holding ratios [2][16]. - Key individual stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have seen a decrease in their heavy holding ratios, while Yuran Dairy and Angel Yeast have received increased allocations [3][27]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - The food and beverage industry has a fund holding ratio of 4.48%, with a total heavy holding market value of approximately 117.8 billion yuan. The sector's overweight ratio is 0.64%, indicating a maintained overweight status [1][11]. Subsector Analysis - The white liquor sector's fund holding ratio is 3.32%, with an overweight ratio of 0.84%. Excluding Kweichow Moutai, the ratio drops to 1.84% with an overweight ratio of 0.85%. The dairy sector's fund holding ratio has increased to 0.25%, ranking third among subsectors [2][16][17]. Individual Stock Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's heavy holding ratio has decreased to 1.47%, despite an increase in the number of funds holding it to 296. Other major stocks in the white liquor sector, such as Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu, have also seen declines in their heavy holding ratios [3][27][28].
超长债周报:四季度GDP增速4.5%,超长债补涨-20260125
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-25 12:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - After the release of economic data for December and the fourth quarter last week, with a Q4 GDP growth rate of 4.5% and a full - year GDP growth rate of 5% in 2025, the A - share market cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market continued to rebound, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly last week, and the term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened while the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 46BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic situation and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near future [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - After the release of December and Q4 economic data last week, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and full - year 2025 GDP growth at 5%, A - shares cooled, MLF had a net injection of 70 billion yuan, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Trading activity increased significantly, the term spread flattened, and the variety spread showed mixed changes [1][12][42]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of January 23, the 30 - 10 spread was 46BP, at a historically low level. In December, the economic downward pressure eased, with an estimated GDP growth of about 4.5% and a 0.4% increase from November. CPI was 0.8% and PPI was - 1.9%, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][13]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of January 23, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 14BP, at a historically extremely low position. December economic data showed easing downward pressure, and deflation risk continued to ease. The bond market is likely to fluctuate, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range oscillations [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 24.4 trillion. As of December 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining term over 14 years totaled 24.4329 trillion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 10.12 billion yuan. By variety, only local government bonds were issued, amounting to 10.12 billion yuan. By term, 2.4 billion yuan was issued with a 15 - year term, 41.9 billion yuan with a 20 - year term, and 58.8 billion yuan with a 30 - year term [20]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 18.77 billion yuan, including 18.47 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds and 0.3 billion yuan of ultra - long medium - term notes [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were very actively traded, with a trading volume of 1.0926 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.3% of the total bond trading volume. Compared with the previous week, the trading volume increased by 213.1 billion yuan, and the proportion increased by 2.5% [28]. Yield - After the release of economic data, the bond market rebounded, and ultra - long bonds made up for lost ground. Yields of treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds of different terms changed to varying degrees [42]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds flattened last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 46BP, the same as the previous week, and the spread was at the 34th percentile since 2010 [50]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds showed mixed changes last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the treasury bond was 14BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the treasury bond was 21BP, with changes of - 1BP and 1BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 11th and 17th percentiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract TL2603 of the 30 - year treasury bond futures closed at 112.30 yuan, an increase of 1.03%. The total trading volume was 463,100 lots (- 79,636 lots), and the open interest was 140,500 lots (+ 536 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [56].
食品饮料行业 2025 年四季度基金持仓分析:食饮板块超配比例略有回升,乳品、预加工食品等获得增持
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-25 12:40
Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry maintains an "Outperform" rating [4][5][35] Core Views - The food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio is 4.48%, with a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking eighth among Shenwan's primary industries. The sector continues to be overweight, with an overweight ratio increasing by 0.02 percentage points [1][11] - The white liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but its overweight ratio has decreased. Conversely, the dairy, snacks, and seasoning sectors have seen an increase in fund holding ratios [2][16] - Key individual stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have seen a decrease in their heavy holding ratios, while Yuran Dairy and Angel Yeast have received increased allocations [3][27] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - The food and beverage industry has a fund holding ratio of 4.48%, with a total institutional heavy holding market value of approximately 117.8 billion yuan [1][11] - The white liquor sector's fund holding ratio is 3.32%, while the ratio excluding Kweichow Moutai is 1.84% [2][16] Subsector Performance - White liquor: Fund holding ratio decreased by 0.37 percentage points to 3.32%, with an overweight ratio down to 0.84% [2][16] - Dairy: Fund holding ratio increased by 0.10 percentage points to 0.25%, with an overweight ratio up to -0.16% [17] - Snacks: Fund holding ratio increased by 0.03 percentage points to 0.22%, with an overweight ratio up to 0.12% [17] Individual Stock Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's heavy holding ratio decreased to 1.47%, despite an increase in the number of funds holding it to 296 [3][27] - Wuliangye's heavy holding ratio decreased to 0.41%, with a reduction in the number of funds holding it [3][27] - Yuran Dairy's heavy holding ratio increased to 0.07%, indicating a positive shift in fund allocations [3][27]
巨人网络(002558):长青IP铸就基本盘,休闲赛道打开向上空间
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-25 12:38
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has a strong R&D capability and a solid long-term operational experience, particularly with its evergreen IPs "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu" [3][31]. - The new product "Supernatural Action Group" has quickly gained popularity, showcasing significant long-term operational potential [3][38]. - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 53.7 billion, CNY 92.2 billion, and CNY 110.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 83.9%, 71.6%, and 20.3% [3][48]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2004 by Shi Yuzhu, has a strong R&D background and has transitioned from a focus on traditional gaming to mobile and international markets [8][14]. - The company has launched several successful games, including "Zhengtu" and "Qiuqiu," which have established a loyal user base [31][34]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 33.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.8% [24]. - The gross margin remains high, around 90%, with sales expenses peaking during new product launches [21][28]. Product Development - The "Zhengtu" series has been a long-standing IP, continuously expanding its user base through various platforms [31][32]. - The new game "Supernatural Action Group" has been well-received, leveraging unique gameplay mechanics and strong social features to attract users [38][39]. Market Position - The company holds a market share of approximately 1.5% in the Chinese gaming industry, ranking 29th among mobile game publishers globally [14][18]. - The gaming market in China is projected to reach CNY 3507.9 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 7.7% [14]. Future Projections - Net profit is expected to reach CNY 24.1 billion, CNY 45.3 billion, and CNY 51.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.62, CNY 3.05, and CNY 3.43 [3][48]. - The company anticipates maintaining a high gross margin and improving operational efficiency through AI integration in game development [45][49].
转债市场周报:强化对个券赎回的预期管理-20260125
Guoxin Securities· 2026-01-25 11:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week of January 19 - 23, the stock market had large - scale net outflows of funds from important index ETFs, but the main indices were still oscillating strongly. The bond market was affected by regulatory news and the central bank's actions, with the 10 - year Treasury bond rate falling. The convertible bond market generally rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index up 2.92% [1][7][8]. - In the context of strong equity market sentiment and tight supply - demand of convertible bonds, the convertible bond market continued to rise last week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index hitting a new high in nearly 10 years. It is recommended to avoid the risks of individual bonds with high redemption pressure and limited upward driving force of the underlying stocks [2][17]. - Looking forward, although the valuation vulnerability of the convertible bond market has further increased, the upward trend of the equity market is clear, providing support for convertible bond valuation. In the coming week, it is advisable to focus on sectors with high performance certainty and low - valuation leading stocks in under - performing industries [3][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Focus (January 19 - 23) - **Stock Market**: There were large - scale net outflows of funds from important index ETFs, but the main indices were oscillating strongly with daily trading volume above 2.5 trillion yuan. The "15th Five - Year Plan" for power grid investment boosted the power grid equipment sector, and precious metals rose significantly due to global geopolitical situations. Different sectors showed fragmented performance on different days, and most Shenwan primary industries rose, with building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, etc. leading the gains, while banks, communication, etc. lagging behind [1][7][8]. - **Bond Market**: The economic data announced last week was in line with expectations. The mid - week capital situation was tight but improved after the central bank's intervention. News of regulatory intention to cool the equity market was favorable for the bond market sentiment. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.8298% on Friday, down 1.26bp from the previous week [1][7][8]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Most convertible bond individual securities rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was up 2.92% for the week, the median price was up 3.01%, and the arithmetic average parity was up 3.66%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased by 0.96% compared with the previous week. The textile and clothing, steel, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors in the convertible bond market led the gains, while social services, media, etc. lagged behind. In terms of individual bonds, Jiamei, Fuxin, etc. had the top gains, while Dongshi, Yinbang, etc. had the top losses. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 4395.97 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 879.19 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [1][8][12]. 3.2 Views and Strategies (January 26 - 30) - **Risk Avoidance**: Strengthen the expected management of individual bond redemptions. Due to the "unexpected redemptions" of some targets at the beginning of the week, the valuation of high - parity convertible bonds was compressed. It is recommended to avoid the risks of individual bonds with high redemption pressure and limited upward driving force of the underlying stocks by considering factors such as remaining term and short - term stock price demands [2][17]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Although the valuation vulnerability of the convertible bond market has increased, the upward trend of the equity market provides support for convertible bond valuation. In the week of January 26 - 30, it is advisable to focus on sectors with high performance certainty such as semiconductor equipment and materials, chemical industry, lithium battery, CXO, etc., and low - valuation leading stocks in under - performing industries for absolute return funds [3][18]. 3.3 Valuation Overview - As of January 23, the average conversion premium rates of equity - biased convertible bonds in different price ranges were at high percentile values since 2010 and 2021. The average YTM of debt - biased convertible bonds with a parity below 70 yuan was - 5.66%, at the 0%/1% percentile since 2010 and 2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds and the difference between the implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks were also at high percentile values [19]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking - **Last Week (January 19 - 23)**: Aiwei and Longjian convertible bonds announced their issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. Aiwei Convertible Bond has a scale of 19.01 billion yuan, and Longjian Convertible Bond has a scale of 10 billion yuan [26][27]. - **Next Week (January 26 - 30)**: No convertible bonds are announced for issuance, and Lianrui Convertible Bond will be listed, with a scale of 6.95 billion yuan [28][29]. - **Overall Situation**: As of January 23, there were 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 1522.3 billion yuan, including 8 that have been approved for registration, with a total scale of 61.6 billion yuan [30].