Group 1 - The overseas markets collectively rose in the past week (June 23-27, 2025), with major indices increasing by over 2.5%, particularly the Nikkei 225, which rose by 4.55% [2][8] - Valuation expansion was observed across most indices, with the exception of a slight contraction in the PE of the French CAC40. The PE of US indices expanded by 1-2 times, while the German DAX saw the most significant expansion of +2.28x [2][8] - A-share core broad indices rebounded collectively, with notable increases in the National Index 2000 (+4.94%), the CSI 1000 (+4.62%), and the CSI 500 (+3.98%), with respective PE expansions of 2.29x, 1.60x, and 0.99x [2][21] Group 2 - The TMT sector led the rebound among primary industries, with significant gains in computer (+7.70%), defense and military (+6.90%), and non-bank financials (+6.66%). In contrast, the oil and petrochemical sector experienced a decline of -2.07% [43] - The overall valuation expanded in line with market trends, with the defense and military and computer sectors experiencing the largest PE expansions of 5.29x and 6.01x, respectively [43] - The essential consumer sector showed superior valuation attractiveness, particularly in food and beverage and agriculture, with 3-year/5-year average valuation percentiles of only 7.30% / 4.38% and 17.75% / 12.74%, indicating significant room for valuation recovery [2][43]

Core Insights - Global ESG development is marked by actions from governments, enterprises, and financial institutions to promote clean energy, enhance climate action, foster green finance innovation, and improve corporate environmental and social responsibility, showcasing a positive trend in addressing climate change and pursuing sustainable development [2][6] - In the area of information disclosure, the International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation released new guidelines to help companies improve the quality, consistency, and comparability of climate transition data; the UK government published a draft for a new UK Sustainable Development Reporting Standard; and the EU Council significantly reduced corporate sustainability reporting and due diligence rules [2][6] - In carbon neutrality, significant agreements were made, including JPMorgan's 10-year carbon removal credit agreement with 1PointFive for 50,000 tons of CO2 removal, and Microsoft's 12-year agreement with Agoro Carbon for 2.6 million carbon removal credits [2][6] Overseas ESG Events - The UK government announced a comprehensive industrial strategy with plans to invest over £30 billion annually in clean energy manufacturing by 2035, doubling current levels [6][7] - Eni sold a 20% stake in its renewable energy division Plenitude to Ares Management for approximately $2.3 billion, part of Eni's long-term strategy to expand its clean energy business [6][7] - The EU Council adopted a comprehensive negotiating position to significantly reduce corporate sustainability reporting and due diligence rules, which will limit reporting obligations to the largest companies operating in the EU [6][7] Domestic ESG Events - The Ministry of Finance in China released a draft for the application guidelines of the "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards - Basic Standards (Trial)" [2] - ByteDance purchased over 100,000 high-integrity carbon credits from Rubicon Carbon, marking a significant step in carbon neutrality efforts [2] - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) partnered with Keppel to raise up to $1.5 billion for sustainable infrastructure projects in the Asia-Pacific region [2][6] Academic Frontiers - Research published in June 2025 in "Finance Research Letters" found that increased concern over climate risk significantly raised the green premium in the Chinese stock market from 2017 to 2023 [2][4] - Another study indicated that institutional investors' site visits significantly promoted ESG disclosures among non-financial listed companies in China from 2012 to 2022 [2][4] - A study highlighted the phenomenon of "ESG carbon washing," where companies overemphasize carbon responsibility to enhance their ESG image, particularly prevalent in the steel and aviation industries [2][4]

Group 1 - Google DeepMind released AlphaGenome, an AI tool capable of predicting how human DNA sequences regulate biological processes, processing up to 1 million base pairs with significant efficiency improvements [7][6][4] - Meta partnered with Oakley to launch the Oakley Meta HSTN, a high-performance AI eyewear targeting sports enthusiasts, featuring voice control and enhanced battery life [13][8] - Tesla initiated a pilot program for its Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, marking a significant step towards the operational phase of autonomous ride-hailing [17][14] Group 2 - QuantumScape integrated the Cobra separator process into its battery production, achieving a major breakthrough in scalability and performance, with its QSE-5B solid-state cell showing promising specifications [20][18] - Google open-sourced the Gemini CLI, allowing developers to utilize its capabilities directly through the terminal, significantly enhancing command-line efficiency [23][21] - OpenAI launched the o3-pro model, an enhanced version of its previous model, excelling in deep reasoning and reliability, particularly in scientific and programming tasks [29][24] Group 3 - Ant Group and Junan International are positioning themselves in the Hong Kong virtual asset market, with plans to apply for stablecoin licenses following regulatory developments [65][63] - The successful clinical trial of an invasive brain-computer interface in China marks a significant advancement in neurotechnology, enabling a participant to control devices through thought [62][56] - The inaugural Jiangsu City Football League, "Su Super," has attracted significant sponsorship and interest, indicating a growing market for sports-related investments [68][66]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the Israel - Iran cease - fire, the funding situation continued to tighten near the half - year mark, and MLF was scaled back. The bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, and both the term spread and the variety spread remained flat [1][9][36] - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 20BP, at a historically low level. Considering that the funding rate will decline again after the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but the term spread protection is limited [2][10] - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of June 27, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. The bond market is more likely to rise after the half - year mark, but the variety spread protection is limited [3][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, due to the Israel - Iran cease - fire, tightened funding near the half - year mark, and MLF scaling back, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Trading activity increased significantly, and both term and variety spreads remained flat [1][9][36] 2. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook 30 - year Treasury Bond - As of June 27, the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP, at a historically low level. The May GDP growth rate was about 5.0% year - on - year, down 0.1% from April but still higher than the annual target. May CPI was - 0.1% and PPI was - 3.1%, with deflation risks. Exports declined rapidly in May, and domestic housing prices turned negative month - on - month. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but term spread protection is limited [2][10] 20 - year CDB Bond - As of June 27, the 20 - year CDB bond and 20 - year treasury bond spread was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. Economic data shows similar characteristics as the 30 - year treasury bond situation. After the half - year mark, the bond market is more likely to rise, but variety spread protection is limited [3][11] 3. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - As of May 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 21.6823 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [12] 4. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (June 23 - 27, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, totaling 389.9 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main issuers. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance volume [17] This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week is 33.6 billion yuan, all of which are ultra - long local government bonds [21] 5. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 1.3892 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.2% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, trading activity increased significantly [23] Yield - Last week, due to various factors, the bond market adjusted slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term and different - variety ultra - long bonds changed to varying degrees [36] Spread Analysis - Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond spread was 20BP. The variety spread also remained flat, with an absolute low level. The benchmark 20 - year CDB bond and treasury bond spread was 4BP, and the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond spread was 9BP [42][43] 6. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.89 yuan, a decline of 0.35%. Trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous week, and open interest increased slightly [50]

Economic Indicators - The Guosen Weekly High-Tech Manufacturing Diffusion Index A recorded -0.2, while Index B was at 50.6, indicating a slight weakening compared to the previous period[1] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 3.70%[4] - Retail sales year-on-year growth for the month is at 6.40%[4] - Monthly export year-on-year growth stands at 4.80%[4] - M2 money supply growth is at 7.90%[4] Price Trends - The price of 6-Aminopenicillanic Acid remains stable at 260 RMB/kg[2] - The price of Acrylonitrile decreased by 50 RMB/ton to 8150 RMB/ton[2] - Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) price increased by 0.061 USD to 1.3910 USD[2] - Wafer price remains unchanged at 2.73 USD per piece[2] - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate price decreased by 0.05 RMB/ton to 51,700 RMB/ton[2] Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry shows improved sentiment, while the new energy and aerospace sectors are experiencing a downturn[1] - QuantumScape announced a significant advancement in solid-state battery technology, improving production speed by approximately 25 times[2] - A national standard for non-invasive brain-machine interface medical devices is open for public consultation, focusing on performance indicators and testing methods[2] Risk Factors - Potential for indicator failure due to structural adjustments in high-tech manufacturing[3] - Economic policy and industrial policy interventions may impact the sector[3] - Economic growth slowdown poses risks to the industry[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high, with a weekly increase of 3.4% and the Nasdaq rising by 4.2% [3] - Among 20 industries, 16 experienced gains, with notable increases in semiconductor products and equipment (+8.4%), durable goods and apparel (+8.3%), and media and entertainment (+6.6%) [3] - The report highlights significant capital inflows into the S&P 500, estimating a net inflow of $18.17 billion this week, compared to $14.66 billion in the previous week [4][19] - Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 components were adjusted upward by 0.3%, with semiconductor products and equipment leading the upward revisions (+1.3%) [5] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 index increased by 3.4%, while the Nasdaq rose by 4.2% this week [3] - The leading sectors included semiconductor products and equipment (+8.4%) and durable goods and apparel (+8.3%), while the energy sector saw a decline of 3.4% [3] Capital Flows - The estimated capital inflow for S&P 500 components was $18.17 billion this week, a significant increase from $14.66 billion the previous week [4][19] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector attracted the highest inflow of $5.77 billion, followed by information technology with $5.36 billion [19] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS expectations for S&P 500 components were raised by 0.3%, with semiconductor products and equipment seeing the largest increase of 1.3% [5] - Four industries had downward revisions, with durable goods and apparel experiencing a decrease of 1.0% [5]

股价表现：大盘显著上涨，金融与科技领先 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月29日 港股市场速览 优于大市 资金大量流入，金融与科技领先 盈利预测：总体平稳上修，行业分化加深 本周，港股通总体法 EPS 预期上修 0.3%，上周上修 0.1%。 结构上，20 个行业 EPS 预期上修，8 个行业 EPS 预期下修，1 个基本持平。 上修的行业主要有：电力设备及新能源（+3.7%）、医药（+1.7%）、电子（+1.6%）、 有色金属（+1.4%）、传媒（+1.0%）；下修的行业主要有：国防军工（-7.4%）、 钢铁（-3.5%）、轻工制造（-2.4%）、建材（-0.9%）、商贸零售（-0.2%）。 风险提示：经济基本面的不确定性，国际政治局势的不确定性，美国财政政 策的不确定性，美联储货币政策的不确定性。 核心观点 行业研究·海外市场专题 本周，恒生指数涨 3.2%，恒生科技涨 4.1%。风格方面，小盘（恒生小型股 +4.5%）＞中盘（恒生中型股+4.1%）＞大盘（恒生大型股+2.9%）。 概念指数均有所上涨，表现领先的有：恒生金融（+4.0%）、恒生互联网 （+3.9%）、恒生香港 35（+3.8%）。 港股通 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile and apparel industry is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Insights - The worst period for Nike has passed, with expectations for gradual improvement in FY2026, driven by the "Win Now" strategy and easing tariff impacts [4][5][42]. - FY2025 revenue was $46.31 billion, a 10% decline year-over-year, slightly exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [3][8]. - The fourth quarter of FY2025 saw revenue of $11.1 billion, down 12% year-over-year, but better than previous guidance and consensus [5][18]. Summary by Sections Performance and Guidance - FY2025 Q4 revenue exceeded Bloomberg consensus and management guidance, indicating that the worst financial impacts from the "Win Now" strategy are behind [4][5]. - The company expects revenue in FY2026 Q1 to decline in the low single digits, with inventory levels projected to return to healthy levels by the end of H1 FY2026 [4][41]. Regional Performance - Revenue declines were observed across all regions, with the Greater China region experiencing the most significant drop of 20% year-over-year [19][25]. - North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific regions reported revenue declines of 11%, 10%, and 3% respectively, all better than Bloomberg consensus [11][19]. Brand and Channel Performance - Nike brand revenue declined by 9%, outperforming expectations, while Converse saw an 18% decline, missing consensus [11][19]. - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channels saw a 12% decline, with e-commerce down 20%, while physical stores remained stable [11][19]. Inventory and Margin Analysis - Inventory levels are expected to normalize by the end of H1 FY2026, with significant inventory reduction efforts noted in various regions [12][41]. - Gross margin contracted by 190 basis points to 42.7%, primarily due to inventory clearance and increased discounting [11][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality suppliers and retailers within the industry, particularly Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, as well as core retailer Tmall, which is expected to benefit from Nike's recovery [4][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the LCD industry [2] Core Viewpoints - BOE plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, which is expected to optimize the competitive landscape of the panel industry [4][6] - The average gross margin of major Chinese LCD manufacturers increased by 1.81 percentage points year-on-year and 3.60 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 14.89% in Q1 2025 [5] - The report indicates a downward trend in TV panel prices, with expectations of further declines in July [6][22] - The global large-size LCD panel shipment area decreased by 6.08% year-on-year in May 2025, with specific declines in TV and monitor shipments [9][32] Market Performance - From May 2025 to the present, the panel index has risen by 3.54%, outperforming major stock indices [8][15] - As of June 23, 2025, the total market capitalization of the A-share panel industry was 513.69 billion yuan, with an overall price-to-book ratio of 1.49x, at the 57.3 percentile of the past five years [15][20] Price & Cost - In June 2025, the prices of various sizes of LCD TV panels decreased, with a forecasted further decline in July [6][22] - The prices for IT panels remained stable across different sizes in June 2025 [7][22] Supply & Demand - The report forecasts a 2.31% increase in global large-size LCD capacity in 2024 compared to 2023, with a slight growth of 0.21% expected in 2025 [9][26] - The demand for large-size LCD panels is projected to decline, particularly in the TV segment, which saw an 8.01% year-on-year decrease in shipment area in May 2025 [9][32] Performance Review - In May 2025, global large-size LCD panel revenue was $6.195 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.72% [57] - Major manufacturers' revenues showed varied performance, with BOE's revenue at $1.78 billion, down 12.92% year-on-year [60]

Group 1 - The report indicates that in a low interest rate environment, dividend assets can serve as a good supplement to bonds, but they cannot fully replace them due to differing risk-return characteristics. Historical data shows that during periods of declining interest rates, dividend asset yields have increased, with current low-volatility dividend stock yields exceeding 6% while the 10-year government bond yield is below 1.8% [3][11][12] - The volatility of dividend assets is significantly higher than that of bonds. Over the past decade, the volatility of mainstream dividend indices has been much greater than that of bond indices, with the lowest annualized volatility of the best-performing dividend asset (the low-volatility dividend index in 2017) still exceeding bonds by nearly 5 percentage points [3][14][16] - The report suggests a paradigm shift in the approach to dividend assets in stock-bond allocation, moving from "replacing stocks" to "replacing bonds" as the traditional safety net effect of pure bond assets weakens due to significantly compressed coupon yields [3][43] Group 2 - Insights into bond fund performance reveal that during periods of rapid interest rate declines, the proportion of funds outperforming benchmarks is limited. Over the past four and a half years, the average proportion of short and medium-long bond funds outperforming benchmarks has been around 57.6%, with nearly 60% of bond funds underperforming benchmarks in 2024 [3][52][55] - The report highlights a significant difference in the holdings of dividend assets between banks and insurance companies in Japan. Banks hold an average of 10.27% of the high dividend index, while insurance companies hold only 3.55%, indicating a much larger total position for banks compared to insurance companies [3][57][61]