Equity – Asia Research 2025 年全球新能源展望 --哪些可行，哪些不可行 Scott Darling, scott.darling@htisec.com Catherine Li, catherine.dy.li@htisec.com 2025 年 6 月 23 日 （本报告为 2025 年 6 月 19 日发布的英文报告的翻译版，以原稿为准） This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), Haitong International (Japan) K.K.("HTIJKK"), Haitong International Securities Company Limited ("HTISCL"), a ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock markets mostly declined, with the S&P 500 down 0.15% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.52%[3] - Commodity prices generally increased, with IPE Brent crude futures rising by 2.85% and the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index up 2.30%[3] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.63%, closing at 98.76, while the yuan depreciated slightly against the dollar at 7.18[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. industrial output fell by 0.13% year-on-year in May, and the industrial capacity utilization rate decreased to 77.43%[9] - The Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index rose significantly to 35.3% from 11.6% in the previous month[27] - U.S. retail and food service sales decreased by 3.29% year-on-year in May, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending[17] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. inflation expectations declined, with the 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations at 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively[22] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, indicating a cautious approach amid rising stagflation expectations[31] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates again this year, with current inflation at 1.9% in May, close to the 2% target[32] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to tariffs and Middle Eastern tensions, are contributing to market volatility and inflation uncertainty[35] - The potential for stagflation is increasing, with the Fed's economic growth forecasts being downgraded and unemployment rate predictions rising[31]

Financial System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a structure with a few dominant sovereign currencies competing and balancing each other[5] - The global cross-border payment system is developing towards greater efficiency, security, inclusiveness, and diversity[5] - International financial organizations need to enhance the representation and voice of emerging markets and developing countries[5] Financial Opening - China has significant potential for high-level financial opening, focusing on expanding consumption demand and financial services[13] - The technology finance sector is a vast blue ocean, with initiatives for equity investment in financial asset investment companies and loans for technology enterprise mergers[13] - Green finance is gaining momentum, with foreign institutions introducing ESG rating systems and climate risk management tools into China[13] Capital Market - The capital market aims to promote the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, with a focus on deepening reforms through a "1+6" policy framework[15] - The introduction of a growth layer on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the restart of the fifth listing standard for unprofitable companies are key measures[15] - There is a push to strengthen the linkage between equity and debt to support technological innovation[15] Foreign Exchange Management - A comprehensive and innovative foreign exchange management system will be established, focusing on convenience, openness, safety, and intelligence[19] - Ten facilitation policies will be implemented in the free trade pilot zones, including optimizing new international trade settlement methods[19] Risk Warning - External factors may cause disturbances in the financial system[22]

Revenue Insights - National general public budget revenue from January to May 2025 was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%[6] - In May 2025, the monthly revenue growth rate was 0.1%, down from 1.9% in April[6] - Tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[8] Central Government Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure from January to May 2025 was 112,953 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%[9] - In May 2025, the monthly expenditure growth rate was 2.6%, down from 5.8% in April[9] - Central government expenditure increased by 11% in May, while local government expenditure decreased to 0.9%[9] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue from January to May 2025 was 15,483 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%[17] - In May 2025, the monthly revenue growth rate was -8.1%, significantly down from 8.1% in April[17] - Government fund budget expenditure from January to May 2025 was 32,125 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 16%[17] Fiscal Policy Outlook - A total of 1,620 billion yuan in central funds has been allocated in January and April to support consumption initiatives[22] - An additional 1,380 billion yuan in central funds is expected to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters[22] - The macro policy direction is expected to remain positive, with potential marginal increases in fiscal measures[22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the seasoning industry in Southeast Asia [1]. Core Insights - The Southeast Asian seasoning market is projected to reach USD 20 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.8% expected over the next five years [5]. - Per capita consumption of seasonings in Southeast Asia is estimated at USD 28.8 in 2024, which is lower than China's USD 31.9 [5]. - The average price of seasonings in Southeast Asia is projected to be USD 3.5 in 2024, compared to USD 6 in China [10]. - The region's seasoning market is characterized by a higher consumption share of sauces compared to traditional condiments, indicating a strong reliance on complex flavors in local diets [13]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Southeast Asia Overview - The seasoning industry in Southeast Asia is still in a growth phase, with a per capita consumption of 8.2 kg in 2024, higher than China's 5.3 kg [9]. - The market is diverse, with a wide variety of products including chili sauce, tomato sauce, soy sauce, oyster sauce, and local specialties [13]. Part 2: Country Performance - **Vietnam**: The seasoning industry is expected to generate USD 2.86 billion in revenue in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.7% over the next five years [21]. Local brands dominate the market due to their deep understanding of consumer preferences [27]. - **Indonesia**: The market is projected to reach USD 8.63 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.5% [33]. The industry is driven by urbanization and changing consumption habits, with a notable rise in modern retail channels and e-commerce [33]. - **Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand**: These countries exhibit higher per capita consumption levels compared to others in the region, driven by higher income levels and a demand for high-quality, branded, and imported seasonings [40][43]. Part 3: Investment Opportunities - The Southeast Asian restaurant market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% from 2024 to 2029, supporting the expansion of the seasoning industry [47]. - The growth of Chinese cuisine in Southeast Asia is anticipated to foster the consumption of Chinese seasonings, with the international Chinese restaurant market projected to grow from RMB 227.5 billion in 2020 to RMB 359.4 billion by 2024 [50]. - The young population structure in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam, is expected to drive demand for seasonings as income levels rise [53].

Investment Focus - The market has entered a second phase of broad consolidation, with heightened volatility risks in micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma sectors [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index dropped 1.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.0%, while A-shares also experienced declines [1][8] - Liquidity in the tech sector has been diverted towards innovative pharma and new consumption, but both sectors saw notable pullbacks this week [1][8] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The sustainability of rallies in new consumption and innovative pharma depends on continued HKD liquidity and steady southbound inflows [2][9] - Recent pullbacks in innovative pharma have increased the AH premium from a 10-year average of 136 to 139, indicating H-shares are underperforming A-shares [2][9] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market is tightening, influenced by large IPOs and upcoming listings [2][9] Southbound Capital Flows - This week saw a net inflow of HKD 16.3 billion, but only HKD 4.2 billion flowed in during the last three trading days of market decline [3][10] - Significant selling pressure was observed in Pop Mart, with HKD 1.8 billion sold, nearly erasing the past month's inflows [3][10] - Southbound capital mainly flowed into banks, healthcare, and consumer services, with limited outflows in communication services [3][10] A-Shares Performance - The liquor index rebounded 2.7% this week, supported by favorable media commentary, but the overall downtrend remains unaltered [4][11] - The banking sector continued to perform well, rising 2.6%, which helped stabilize large-cap defensives [4][11] - Micro-caps fell 2.2%, underperforming the broader market but still remain at elevated levels [4][11] Market Outlook - The broad consolidation pattern in the market is expected to continue, with high-flying sectors like micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma yet to fully deflate [4][12] - The expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period on July 9 may lead to renewed pressure from U.S.-China negotiations [4][12] - Investors are advised to wait for better entry points, particularly near 21,000 on the Hang Seng Index and 3,200 on the Shanghai Composite [4][12] Short-Term Market Sentiment - Recent U.S. military actions against Iran may extend market downward momentum early next week [5][13] - If the market declines to key support levels, a bottoming rebound may occur [5][13] - The tech sector, after sufficient pullback, is believed to hold stronger rebound potential, particularly in edge AI and application software [5][13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the discretionary cosmetics industry Core Insights - The 2025 618 shopping festival showed robust growth, with total sales across integrated e-commerce, instant retail, and community group buying reaching 855.6 billion yuan, 29.6 billion yuan, and 12.6 billion yuan respectively, marking year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 18.7%, and -9.1% [1][17] - The overall transaction volume of major platforms increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with Taobao/Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou accounting for 48.7%, 19.3%, 18.4%, 10.1%, and 3.6% of GMV respectively [1][17] - The beauty category on major e-commerce platforms achieved a GMV of 60-70 billion yuan during the 618 period, with a year-on-year increase of over 10% [1][19] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Sales during the 618 festival from May 13 to June 18, 2025, reached 855.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% across major platforms [1][17] - Tmall's GMV, excluding refunds, increased by 10% year-on-year, with 453 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales, a 24% increase [2][18] Platform Insights - Douyin saw over 60,000 brands doubling their transaction amounts year-on-year, with more than 2,000 products exceeding 10 million yuan in sales [2][18] - JD.com led the industry with over 100% growth in user orders, achieving a record high in daily active users [2][18] Market Share and Brand Rankings - Tmall maintained a 41.3% market share in the beauty category, followed by Douyin at 35.7%, JD.com at 14.8%, and Kuaishou at 8.2% [1][19] - The top brands in the beauty and skincare category on Tmall included Pechoin, Lancôme, L'Oréal, Estée Lauder, and Skinceuticals, with Skinceuticals entering the top five for the first time [1][19] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the makeup and perfume category was intense, with YSL topping the list, followed by Caitang and Mao Ge Ping [1][19] - On Douyin, the beauty and skincare category saw 34 brands exceeding 100 million yuan in sales, a significant increase of 88.9% year-on-year [1][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly for low-priced consumer goods and imported durable goods due to ongoing uncertainties and potential economic risks [5]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index rebounded significantly in June, reaching 60.5, up 15.9% from May's 52.2, indicating a recovery from previous declines [8][9]. - Retail sales in May 2025 were $715.42 billion, a 0.9% month-over-month decline, marking the largest single-month drop since March 2023 [9]. - Inflation data showed a mild increase in May, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, below market expectations, but long-term inflation risks remain [11][13]. - Employment data showed a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations, but revisions indicated a slowdown in job growth [15][19]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The consumer confidence index rebounded in June, reflecting a recovery from previous declines, with inflation expectations decreasing from 6.6% to 5.1% [8]. - Retail sales data for May showed a significant decline, particularly in durable goods, as the demand normalized following a previous surge [9]. - Inflation data indicated a mild increase, with CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, but long-term inflation concerns persist due to potential tariff impacts [11][13]. - Employment data showed a stable job market, but with signs of sectoral divergence, particularly in manufacturing and services [15][17]. Essential Consumption - Beverage and tobacco sectors outperformed the market, with beverage sales showing resilience, while alcoholic beverages and dairy products continued to underperform [2][34]. - Alcoholic beverage retail sales in April were $5.63 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, but overall sales volume continued to decline [2][29]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.61 billion in April, with a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a stable but lackluster performance [34]. - Beverage shipments reached $11.97 billion in April, with a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, showcasing strong demand in essential categories [34]. Optional Consumption - The restaurant sector showed resilience with retail sales of $97.36 billion in May, a year-over-year increase of 5.3%, but a month-over-month decline of 0.9% [39]. - Department store sales in May were $76.76 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, but a continued weakening trend [42]. - Apparel retail sales reached $26.18 billion in May, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, but a decline in momentum due to the end of pre-tariff purchasing [44]. Market Performance - The consumer sector saw a broad rally in May, with significant gains in essential and discretionary categories, although valuations remain at historical highs [4]. - The consumer discretionary ETF saw a net inflow of $553 million, while the essential consumer ETF had a net inflow of $522 million, indicating investor interest [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining a cautious approach towards the consumer sector, particularly in light of ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and economic growth [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anhui Gujing Distillery Company has been upgraded to OUTPERFORM [2]. Core Views - The baijiu industry maintains its rigid demand attributes, with long-term strategies focused on creating high-quality famous baijiu. Despite facing cyclical adjustments, the social and cultural significance of baijiu ensures its essential demand [3][12]. - The company plans to optimize its product structure and enhance its high-end offerings to capture the upgrading consumer demographic while reinforcing the banquet attributes of its products [3][12]. - Historical revenue and profit performance have been strong, with total revenue and net profit growth rates exceeding 20% from 2021 to 2023. Although growth is expected to slow in 2024, the company remains a leader in the industry [3][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2027 are Rmb 23.58 billion, Rmb 24.15 billion, Rmb 25.43 billion, and Rmb 26.79 billion, respectively, with a growth rate of 16% in 2024 [2][10]. - Net profit is expected to be Rmb 5.52 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 20% [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable around 79.9% to 79.6% from 2024 to 2027 [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to maintain a revenue share of over 60% in its home province of Anhui while expanding its market presence in key regions such as Henan and Jiangsu [4][15]. - The focus will be on consolidating its market position in Anhui and gradually expanding to other provinces using a targeted approach [4][15]. Dividend and Valuation - The expected dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 57.5%, with a projected increase to over 70% in 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield exceeding 5.4% [5][16]. - The target price for the company is set at Rmb 191, based on a P/E ratio of 18x for 2025 [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, recommending attention to high-performance structural component manufacturers and defense contractors [5]. Core Insights - The AI technology giants are adjusting their investment pace in data centers, with Microsoft delaying some early projects but expected to resume construction after the fiscal year ends, potentially driving demand in 2025 [2][15]. - The U.S. gas turbine price index increased by 5.3% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating a stable demand in the industrial sector [3][56]. - The 55th Paris Air Show highlighted a strong recovery in the commercial aviation market, with significant orders reflecting the industry's resilience [23][24]. Summary by Sections Data Centers - Major cloud service providers are adjusting their investment strategies, with Microsoft and Amazon accelerating procurement for large clients while Google increases its hosting expenditures [15]. Energy Construction - Michigan regulators are pushing for reliability improvements from Consumers Energy and DTE Electric, emphasizing the need for better vegetation management and equipment replacement [19][20]. - The UK government announced a £14.2 billion investment in a nuclear power plant to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, with a capacity of 3.2GW [21]. Aerospace - The Paris Air Show showcased advancements in military aircraft and green aviation technologies, with a focus on sustainable solutions [23][24]. - The U.S. aircraft engine manufacturing price index remained stable, reflecting consistent demand in the aerospace sector [25][28]. Defense - The report notes significant defense contracts, including the potential $175 billion "Golden Dome" missile defense system, which could become one of the largest defense contracts globally [33][34]. - The EU's new defense funding plan aims to streamline investment rules to enhance member states' defense capabilities by 2030 [33]. Robotics - The global installation of industrial robots in 2023 was 541,302 units, a slight decrease from the previous year, with the automotive sector regaining its position as the largest customer [36][42]. - The U.S. mechanical manufacturing price index showed a modest increase, indicating stable market conditions for industrial equipment [37]. Industrial Equipment - The price index for electric motors and generators in the U.S. rose by 2.5% month-on-month in May 2025, reflecting increased production costs [43]. - China's transformer exports reached 45.8 billion yuan in April 2025, marking a 34% year-on-year increase, indicating strong demand in international markets [65].