Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Jiuyang Co., Ltd. with a target price of 11.3 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - Jiuyang's domestic market operations remain stable, while overseas business faces pressure. The company reported a revenue of 3.99 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 123 million yuan, down 30.0% year-on-year [2][8]. - The domestic business showed resilience with a revenue of 3.56 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.16% year-on-year, while overseas revenue dropped significantly by 48.7% to 430 million yuan, attributed to tariff impacts and fluctuations in overseas demand [8]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 27.2% in H1 2025, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic gross margin declining to 29.8% due to intensified competition [8]. - Non-operating losses impacted net profit, with a net profit margin of 3.1% in H1 2025, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The company has adopted a cautious approach to expenses, with a total expense ratio of 23.9% [8]. - Jiuyang is positioned as a leader in the domestic small appliance sector, with long-term growth potential. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 240 million, 330 million, and 390 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 22, and 19 [8]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the total revenue is projected at 8.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4.7%. The net profit is expected to rebound significantly in 2026 with a growth rate of 98.2% [4][9]. - The current share price is 9.69 yuan, with a historical high of 11.98 yuan and a low of 8.78 yuan over the past 12 months [5][9]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 7.394 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 52.43% [5].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from strong elasticity in performance under the "anti-involution" trend in the industry, with key indicators approaching those of industry leaders [1][3] - The market share gap between the company and the leading competitor is gradually narrowing, with the company achieving the second-largest market share in the industry in 2023 [1][10] - The company's single-ticket net profit margin is closing in on that of its main competitor, with a significant reduction in the profit gap [2][15] Summary by Sections Market Position and Performance - The company surpassed Yunda to become the second-largest player in the industry in 2023, maintaining a business volume growth rate higher than the industry average [1][10] - The market share difference between the company and Zhongtong decreased from 6.8 percentage points in 2023 to 3.5 percentage points in Q2 2025 [1][10] - In Q2 2025, the company's e-commerce express business growth rate was 21.8%, outperforming the industry average of 17.3% [1][14] Profitability and Cost Management - The difference in single-ticket net profit (excluding non-recurring items) between the company and Zhongtong has narrowed to less than 0.1 yuan [2][15] - In Q2 2025, the company's single-ticket net profit decreased by 22.8%, the smallest decline among major competitors [16] - The company's cost efficiency has improved, with the single-ticket transportation and sorting costs decreasing significantly over the years [29][31] Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for price and profit improvement in the industry, supported by historical trends from 2021 to 2022 [3][40] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 43.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 25.4 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 37% from the current price [48] - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from price elasticity as the industry moves away from "involution" competition [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 142.7 CNY, compared to the current price of 125.68 CNY [5][6]. Core Insights - The company has returned to a growth trajectory, achieving a revenue of 1.63 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 90 million CNY, a significant year-over-year increase of 2062.3% [2][9]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 820 million CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 5.4%, indicating a clear improvement trend [2][9]. - The core business of complete machines and accessories generated 1.49 billion CNY in revenue during H1 2025, showing a slight decline of 0.4% year-over-year, primarily due to poor performance in overseas markets, which saw a year-over-year decrease of 10.9%. However, domestic market performance remained stable with a year-over-year increase of 1.3% [9]. - The company benefited from the incubation growth of non-core businesses, which saw a year-over-year increase of 314.9% [9]. - The overall gross margin improved significantly, reaching 33.3% in H1 2025, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-over-year. The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 32.6%, up 2.4 percentage points year-over-year [9]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 5.5%, an increase of 5.2 percentage points year-over-year, with Q2 2025 showing a net profit margin of 3.2%, marking a turnaround from the previous year [9]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 3.777 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 10.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 237 million CNY, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 97.5% [4][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 3.39 CNY in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37 [4][10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 5.319 billion CNY in 2024 to 6.527 billion CNY by 2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 41.7 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.12 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 320 million yuan, an increase of 1.77% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 960 million yuan, down 16.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the company's strategic choice to reduce marketing expenses and optimize its business structure for higher profitability [8]. - The overall gross margin improved to 57.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2025 gross margin reaching 59.1%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 15.2%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2025 net profit margin at 14.6%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic personal care small appliance sector, with significant channel transformation and continuous product innovation to meet diverse consumer needs [8]. - Future earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.5 yuan in 2025, 1.8 yuan in 2026, and 2.0 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 21, and 19 respectively [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 4.147 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -18.0%, followed by 4.243 billion yuan in 2025 with a growth rate of 2.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 458 million yuan in 2024, with a significant decline of 55.1%, and is expected to recover to 646 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 41.0% [4]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 3.776 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.258 billion yuan in 2027 [9].

Group 1 - The "anti-involution bull" is seen as a crucial opportunity for the market to switch between the two halves of the bull market, with the first half driven by financial re-inflation and the second half by real asset re-inflation, leading to a return of blue-chip stocks driven by both valuation and performance [2][11][12] - The recent policy shift from the central government marks a significant turning point for "anti-involution," which is expected to drive inflation recovery and facilitate the transition between the two halves of the bull market [2][11][14] - The improvement in local government finances has provided the central government with the confidence to implement policies effectively, as evidenced by the recovery in land auction activities and the narrowing decline in land transfer revenues [2][11][14] Group 2 - The recent two months have seen a strengthening of policy determination from the top down, alongside an increase in corporate willingness to cooperate from the bottom up, alleviating previous market concerns regarding the execution of "anti-involution" policies [3][28][29] - The central government's intervention has shifted from industry association-led self-regulation to more direct involvement, with significant policy announcements aimed at curbing irrational competition in key sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [3][29][32] - Corporations, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, have begun to respond positively to "anti-involution" initiatives, with major companies committing to production cuts and inventory control to align with industry-wide efforts [3][33][34] Group 3 - Industries that are expected to benefit from "anti-involution" include glass fiber, coal, energy metals, cement, commercial vehicles, and wind power equipment, identified through various criteria such as state-owned enterprise ratios and industry concentration [3][38] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price elasticity and tax implications in identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" strategy, with a focus on cyclical resource products [3][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Taihe New Materials (002254) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.903 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 2.48% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26 million yuan, down 77.58% year-on-year [1] - The advanced textile products segment, particularly spandex, continues to face challenges with a revenue of 718 million yuan in H1 2025, down 12.59% year-on-year [7] - The aramid coating industrialization project has commenced trial production, with expectations for gradual market penetration and capacity release in the future [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3.929 billion, 4.465 billion, 5.831 billion, and 7.568 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.1%, 13.6%, 30.6%, and 29.8% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 90 million, 72 million, 180 million, and 338 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of -73.1%, -19.7%, 150.3%, and 88.2% [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 12.6 yuan, with the current price at 10.19 yuan [3] Industry Insights - The aramid industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a slight decline in gross margins due to increased production capacity and weak demand in traditional industrial sectors [7] - The spandex market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with domestic production capacity reaching 1.43 million tons in H1 2025, an increase of 76,000 tons from the end of 2024, while demand growth remains limited [7] - The company's SAFEBM® battery aramid coating separator project has made significant progress, with small batch orders from clients and ongoing efforts to accelerate industrialization [7]

行业研究 非银金融 2025 年 09 月 12 日 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 当华尔街遇上区块链：纳斯达克的探索 | 华创证券研究所 | | --- | | 证券分析师：徐康 | | 电话：021-20572556 | | 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360518060005 | 事项： 2025 年 9 月 8 日，纳斯达克正式向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了关于代币化 交易"Tokenized Form"的规则提案，核心目标是在不破坏现有国家市场体系（NMS）的前 提下，引入代币化证券结算的合规通道。若获批准，预计美国存托结算公司（DTC）将 在 2026 年三季度上线链上结算功能。 评论： 代币化的合规逻辑与 SEC 沟通策略：纳斯达克在提案中强调，代币化并非发行新币，而 是传统证券的一种替代结算形式。本次于 2025 年 9 月 8 日提交的提案，是美国资本市 场首次尝试在合规层面为证券代币化结算提供路径。其说服 SEC 的主要逻辑包括：1）投 资者需求驱动：投资者对于可持有与交易代币化版本的证券的需求正在上升， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 7.7 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 210 million yuan, down 53.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10 million yuan, down 87.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - The decline in performance is attributed to weak market demand, particularly influenced by the downturn in the real estate sector, which has adversely affected the company's core business of integrated stoves [2][8]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to a decrease in gross margins, which fell to 38.1% in the first half of 2025, down 6.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - Management expenses remain rigid, contributing to a significant drop in profitability, with a net profit margin of 5.8% in the first half of 2025, down 15.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][8]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.07, 0.12, and 0.17 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 93, 58, and 40 [2][8]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is expected to generate total revenue of 575 million yuan, a decrease of 34.5% compared to 2024, with a projected net profit of 48 million yuan, down 56.9% [4][9]. - The gross margin for the core integrated stove product is projected to decline to 39.8% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 5.9 percentage point decrease year-on-year [2][8]. - The company's total assets are estimated to be 1.462 billion yuan in 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.6% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming launch of seven significant new models in September 2025, which are expected to catalyze investment in the automotive sector [10][30] - Key models to watch include BYD's Fangcheng Baotai 7, Geely's Galaxy M9, NIO's ES8, and others, with a focus on their market performance and consumer expectations [10][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking the market response to these new launches, as they could significantly impact the stock prices of related companies [10][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The automotive sector consists of 225 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 30,810.37 billion [4] - The circulating market value stands at about 23,623.17 billion [4] Market Performance - The absolute performance of the automotive sector has seen declines of -3.5% over the past month, -4.3% over six months, and -9.1% over the past year [5] - Relative performance shows a slight improvement of 1.3% over six months and 3.2% over the past year [5] Upcoming Models - The report details seven key new models expected to launch in September 2025, including: 1. BYD Fangcheng Baotai 7: A B-class plug-in hybrid SUV, expected to sell 0.3-0.5 million units monthly [12] 2. Geely Galaxy M9: A B-class six-seat plug-in hybrid SUV, anticipated to sell 0.8-1.0 million units monthly [22] 3. NIO ES8: A large six-seat pure electric SUV, projected to sell 0.6-0.8 million units monthly [30] 4. Other models include SAIC's Shangjie H5, Aito Wenjie M7, Li Auto i6, and Zeekr 9X, each with specific market expectations and features [10][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like BYD, Geely, NIO, SAIC, and others due to the anticipated positive impact of new model launches on their stock performance [10][30] - It also highlights the stable demand for Jianghuai Automobile's S800 and recommends attention to SAIC Motor and Great Wall Motors based on their new platform models [10]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On September 11, 2025, the convertible bond market rose following the underlying stocks, with increased valuations. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up, and all industries in the A - share and convertible bond markets generally rose, except for the environmental protection industry in the convertible bond market, which declined [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.23% compared to the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36%, the ChiNext Index rose 5.15%, the SSE 50 Index rose 1.48%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.35% [1]. - In terms of market style, large - cap growth stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks rose 3.28%, large - cap value stocks rose 0.75%, mid - cap growth stocks rose 2.11%, mid - cap value stocks rose 1.19%, small - cap growth stocks rose 2.70%, and small - cap value stocks rose 1.33% [1]. 2. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 76.871 billion yuan, a 6.11% increase from the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2464.593 billion yuan, a 22.99% increase from the previous day. The net inflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 10.309 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 2.49bp to 1.87% [1]. 3. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - Convertible bond prices: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 131.22 yuan, a 1.22% increase from the previous day. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 170.61 yuan, a 0.18% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 119.13 yuan, a 0.52% increase; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 127.02 yuan, a 0.54% increase. The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 57.89%, a 5.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous day. The price median was 132.38 yuan, a 1.16% increase from the previous day [2]. - Convertible bond valuation: The conversion premium rate of the 100 - yuan par - value fitted convertible bonds was 29.56%, a 0.51 - percentage - point increase from the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 102.76 yuan, a 1.36% increase from the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 9.77%, a 1.56 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 81.22%, a 0.95 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 21.49%, a 0.01 - percentage - point increase [2]. 4. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three industries in terms of gains were communication (+7.39%), electronics (+5.96%), and computer (+3.71%). In the convertible bond market, 27 industries rose, with the top three being communication (+4.98%), electronics (+4.23%), and non - ferrous metals (+3.00%), while the only declining industry was environmental protection (-0.35%) [3]. - For different sectors in the convertible bond market: - Closing price: The large - cycle sector rose 1.03%, the manufacturing sector rose 1.74%, the technology sector rose 2.92%, the large - consumption sector rose 1.09%, and the large - finance sector rose 0.94% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector increased by 0.072 percentage points, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.18 percentage points, the technology sector decreased by 0.12 percentage points, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.13 percentage points, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.34 percentage points [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector rose 0.90%, the manufacturing sector rose 1.68%, the technology sector rose 2.72%, the large - consumption sector rose 0.75%, and the large - finance sector rose 1.64% [3]. - Pure - bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector increased by 1.5 percentage points, the manufacturing sector increased by 2.5 percentage points, the technology sector increased by 4.3 percentage points, the large - consumption sector increased by 1.4 percentage points, and the large - finance sector increased by 1.1 percentage points [3]. 5. Industry Rotation - Communication, electronics, and computer industries led the rise. For example, the communication industry in the underlying stock market rose 7.39% in a single day, and 36.52% from the beginning of the year to the present; in the convertible bond market, it rose 4.98% in a single day and 47.99% from the beginning of the year to the present [57].