证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 二季度政府债，5 月或是发行高峰 [Table_Summary] ► 一季度利率债净发行同比大增 3.3 万亿元 国债一季度发行显著快于往年同期。2025 年 1-3 月国债累计净 发行 14680 亿元，同比增长 9855 亿元。今年中央财政靠前发力， 可能为后续 1.3 万亿元超长特别国债和 5000 亿元用于支持银行补 充资本金的特别国债发行腾挪空间。 地方债一季度净发行达到历史同期最高规模。2025 年一季度 地方债发行 28421 亿元，净发行 26268 亿元，同比增长 16428 亿 元，其中"偿还存量债务"再融资债贡献主要规模增量。不过新增 债发行节奏偏慢。截至 3 月末，地方新增债累计发行 12394 亿元， 与过去五年相比，仅略快于 2021 年和 2024 年。其背后主要原因或 是，地方政府优先安排特殊再融资债发行，以缓解债务偿还压力， 从而对新增债发行形成一定挤占效应。 政金债一季度发行节奏整体平稳，高同比增幅主要源于基数效 应。2025 年一季度政金债净发行 4781 ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 新房成交同比转跌 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 | 四句话看透本周地产变化 二手房方面，本周（3 月 28 日-4 月 3 日）15 城成交面积由增转降，环比下滑 9%，弱于过去两年同期水 平，2023、2024 年同期成交面积分别下滑 1%、增长 2%。本周成交面积相当于 2024 年周成交高点的 75%，同 比增长 18%，增幅小幅收窄（前一周为增长 32%），不过较 2023 年同期低 3%。月度同比来看， 3 月成交面积 好于 2024 年，增长 37%，而较 2023 年同期小幅下滑 4%。 京沪深周成交面积环比由小幅下滑转为基本持平，二、三线城市均由增转降。京沪深周成交面积环比基本 持平，相当于去年高点的 87%。其中，深圳、上海环比分别下滑 3%、4%，而北京环比增长 8%。二线城市环比 下滑 14%，相当于去年高点的 68%，其中杭州、青岛、成都跌幅较大，达到 15%-16%，厦门、苏州环比下跌 13%、9%。三线城市环比下滑 12%，东莞 ...

►关税超预期落地，债市长、中、短期逻辑 4 月 2 日，美国称将对所有国家征收 10%"基准关税"，对贸易逆差最 大的国家征收个性化的更高"对等关税"，对华税率将提升至 54%。除了美 方的直接关税以外，中国重要贸易转口地均面临关税激增压力。4 月或成 为中国与各方贸易关系变化的起点，贸易外循环可能遭遇系统性挑战。 从长期维度来看，政策执行拖累的是宏观基本面，如果美方的贸易保 护行动较为坚决，未来国内可能不得不走向"从外需走弱，到内需支撑"的 经济结构转型，"宽货币"的持续支持不可或缺，市场可能会经历不止一次 的降准降息。 从中期维度来看，2 月美国首度加征 10%关税后，中国的总量、对美 出口数据均出现明显下滑，出口数量同比迅速回落至零值附近，出口价值 同比失去关键支撑。如果 3 月出口数据延续显著退坡趋势，且内需增速不 及市场预期，4 月降准可能会率先落地，"择机"时点或为 14-15 日附近。 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 让子弹飞一会儿 [Table_Summary] 过去一周，债市收益率完成了从纠结震荡到大幅下行的 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 06 日 [Table_Title] "对等关税"发布，关注国产替代和内循环 [Table_Title2] 建筑材料 [Table_Summary] ►本周受益标的：（1）美发布所谓"对等关税"，内需再释放的预 期变强，推荐中国建筑，中国交建、四川路桥等受益；推荐海螺 水泥、华新水泥，上峰水泥、塔牌集团等受益。推荐在美有产能 的玻纤龙头中国巨石，在海外产能布局的国际复材。（2）推荐集 装箱涂料超预期，风电涂料高景气，船舶涂料取证加速，推动国产 替代的麦加芯彩；推荐松井股份，3C 涂料需求持续，车身漆国产 替代需求旺盛。（3）国家重大工程雅鲁项目主体工程有望进入开 工期，推荐重点工程中岩大地。（4）首张"OC 证"取证落地，低 空经济再迎新催化，推荐低空产业配套完善的华设集团，苏交 科、隧道股份等受益。（5）风险逐步出清，推荐经营韧性超强的 兔宝宝等；二手房交易数据持续亮眼，叠加扩内需，促消费，推 荐具备α属性的消费建材标的三棵树、伟星新材等。 ►第 14 周（03/30-04/05）清明假期当周的新房、二手房交易环 比下滑（1） 3 ...

[Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾： 证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 06 日 [Table_Title] 扩内需将成为接下来政策的主要抓手 1 的重点： 1） VIX 恐慌指数飙升，风险资产步入高波动阶段。近两个交易日，全球风险资产与避险资产均遭到卖出，美股、 原油、黄金均下行，美元指数大跌后反弹，VIX 指数已升至 45.31，仅次于 2024 年 8 月日元套息交易平仓和 2020 年 3 月全球疫情爆发引发的流动性冲击阶段。回顾 2020 年 3 月，全球疫情爆发带来流动性短期冲击，持 续时间约十个交易日。2020/3/9-2020/3/19 期间，各类资产呈现普跌，美国股债双杀，原油和黄金均大幅下 行。此后随着欧美加强疫情防控和国内外政策宽松，各类资产才开启一轮较长时间的修复行情。 2） 中期来看，"对等关税"将加剧美国经济滞胀风险。近期市场对美国经济"滞"的担忧明显升温，纳斯达克指 数自高点累计回撤 22%，已进入技术性熊市；美债收益率持续下行，CME 联储观察显示市场预期 2025 年降息 幅度或达 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has reported a revenue of 1.492 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.98%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 154 million yuan, down 43.55% year-on-year [2] - The demand in the industry has fully recovered, with significant order growth from upstream component manufacturers, particularly in the MLCC sector [3] - The company is expected to benefit from a new round of military orders, with a substantial increase in demand for high-reliability ceramic capacitors [3] - The average price of high-reliability capacitors has decreased by approximately 20% compared to the previous year, impacting the gross margin [4] - The company is expanding its product categories and applications, particularly in military and aerospace sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [5][6] - The global military expenditure reached a record high of 2.443 trillion USD in 2024, indicating a potential increase in military trade demand [7] - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to experience significant growth in 2025, with the company positioned to benefit from increased satellite launches and related electronic component demand [8][9] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.097 billion yuan, 2.629 billion yuan, and 3.138 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.6%, 25.3%, and 19.4% [10][14] - The net profit for the same years is expected to be 354 million yuan, 501 million yuan, and 604 million yuan, with growth rates of 130.4%, 41.5%, and 20.5% respectively [10][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.53 yuan, 2.17 yuan, and 2.61 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][14] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a projected gross margin recovery as delivery volumes increase [4][10]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 5 日 [Table_Title] 特朗普关税政策引发全球多数市场进一步回调 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点: 由于特朗普关税政策超预期，本周全 球多数市场出现进一步回调。本周美股出现进一步回调，回调 幅度明显加大。本周美股市场呈现出成长股和价值股大幅回调 的态势；本周美股信息技术、金融、工业、医疗保健、消费、 医疗保健、能源等行业均出现明显下跌。英伟达、博通、脸 书、美光科技、超微半导体等美股科技股周内出现较大幅度的 回调；近期美股金融股中美国银行、摩根士丹利、贝莱德、富 国银行、摩根大通、高盛集团等重要金融股均出现较大幅度的 回调。作为美股市场核心领域的科技和金融大幅回调说明美股 市场抛压较大。由于美股市场短期回调幅度较大，若无客观因 素影响，短期利空消化之后，美股多数成长行业和多数价值行 业将容易出现超跌反弹，但是由于利空因素很难短期真正消 除，预计在未来短期经历超跌反弹之后，美股多数成长行业和 多数价值行业还会有进一步回调。本周 TAMAMA 科技指数大 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The market is active in Q1 2025, but overall performance is weak, with daily trading volume increasing by 70% year-on-year to 15,246 billion yuan [1] - The average balance of margin trading increased by 21% year-on-year, reaching 1.87 trillion yuan [1] - Equity financing scale saw a significant increase of 65% year-on-year, while core debt financing showed a slight increase of 2% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.5% compared to the same period last year, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.8% [2] - The estimated performance of listed brokerages (excluding Dongfang Wealth) in Q1 2025 shows a revenue increase of 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 15.2% [3] Summary by Sections Market Conditions - Daily average trading volume in Q1 2025 reached 15,246 billion yuan, up 70% year-on-year [1] - The average balance of margin trading was 1.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a 21% increase year-on-year [1] - The scale of equity financing increased by 65% year-on-year, with IPOs and other financing activities showing varied results [1] Performance of Listed Brokerages - Estimated revenue for Q1 2025 is approximately 968 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [3] - Net profit is projected to be around 338 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.2% increase year-on-year [3] - Revenue from brokerage, proprietary trading, interest, investment banking, and asset management is expected to vary significantly, with brokerage income increasing by 65.5% and proprietary trading income decreasing by 42.5% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests waiting for market stabilization before making significant investment decisions [4] - The performance of listed brokerages during the annual report season may present attractive investment opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a strong demand for travel and tourism during the Qingming holiday, with domestic car rental bookings increasing by 33% year-on-year and outbound train ticket bookings surging over 200%. This trend suggests a continued recovery in the travel industry leading up to the May Day holiday [2][24] - Meta has released its latest Llama 4 AI model series, which reportedly outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4o in various applications, indicating advancements in AI technology that could impact multiple sectors [2][24] - Despite a complex macroeconomic environment and potential external shocks from trade conflicts, there remains negotiation space. The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and technological innovation as key pillars for medium to long-term development [3][25] - Investment opportunities are identified in the gaming industry, Hong Kong internet leaders, and the film and tourism sectors, with specific companies recommended for attention, including Tencent and 37 Interactive Entertainment [3][25] Market Performance Overview - During the 12th and 13th weeks of 2025 (March 24 - April 3), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.68%, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.04%. The SW Media Index declined by 2.65%, ranking 19th among 31 industries [1][13] - Among sub-industries, publishing, broadcasting, and film ranked highest with respective changes of +3.93%, -1.06%, and -1.46% [1][13] Industry News - The report includes rankings for films, web movies, TV series, variety shows, and games, indicating the current trends and popular titles in the media sector [8][19] - The gaming industry is seeing a shift towards multiplayer and online games, with 90% of developers focusing on these formats, reflecting changing consumer preferences [27][28]

Liquidity Overview - In the first week of April, liquidity has shown a self-driven easing trend, with DR007 and R007 weekly averages down by 7bp and 18bp respectively, and overnight rates gradually falling to 1.6%[1] - The banking system's net lending remained high, with daily net lending exceeding 30,000 billion CNY from March 31 to April 3, peaking at 34,700 billion CNY on the cross-quarter day[1][12] Market Expectations - Looking ahead to the week of April 7-11, liquidity is expected to remain loose due to the absence of tax payments and a significant drop in government bond net payments to -490.6 billion CNY, the lowest level since 2023[2][16] - The tax filing deadline has been postponed to April 18, which will limit the impact of tax-related liquidity fluctuations during this week[2][16] Open Market Operations - From April 7-11, the central bank's reverse repos will mature at 763.4 billion CNY, with a total of 9,134 billion CNY in open market operations due[3][38] - The central bank net withdrew 501.9 billion CNY from March 31 to April 3, with reverse repos totaling 684.9 billion CNY and maturing repos at 1,186.8 billion CNY[3][37] Bill Market Trends - As of April 3, the 1M discount bill rate dropped significantly from 2.00% to 1.42%, while the 3M rate fell by 65bp to 1.05%[4][41] - Major banks net purchased 118.7 billion CNY in bills, with a cumulative net purchase of 127 billion CNY from April 1-3[4][41] Government Bond Activity - The net payment for government bonds fell sharply to -490.6 billion CNY for the week of April 7-11, down from 546.1 billion CNY the previous week[5][46] - The planned issuance for government bonds during this period is set at 201.9 billion CNY, all of which are local bonds[5][46] Interbank Certificate of Deposit - The pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit increased, with 5,497 billion CNY maturing from April 7-11, a significant rise from 1,011 billion CNY the previous week[6][51] - The weighted average issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit decreased to 1.89%, down 4bp from the previous week[6][51]