Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 42.869 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 88.2% [2] - The weighted average ROE was 16.7%, up by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's cash dividend per share was 0.18 yuan (before tax), an increase of 15.4% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 18.6% [2] Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company’s property and casualty insurance segment reported a premium income of 538.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [3] - The combined ratio (COR) for property and casualty insurance was 98.5%, up by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily impacted by significant disaster losses [3] - The company optimized its auto insurance business structure, achieving a market share of 38.8% in new car insurance [3] Life Insurance Performance - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance reached 7.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.2% [4] - The company adjusted its economic assumptions, lowering the investment return rate to 4.0% and the risk discount rate (RDR) to 8.5% [5] - The NBV for health insurance was 6.883 billion yuan, up by 143.6% year-on-year [2] Investment Income - Total investment income increased significantly by 86.2% year-on-year to 82.163 billion yuan, with a total investment yield of 5.6% [6] - The fair value gains improved from a loss of 13.293 billion yuan to a gain of 22.554 billion yuan [7] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 are maintained at 659.5 billion yuan and 712.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a new projection for 2027 at 736.8 billion yuan [8] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2026 has been raised to 45.5 billion yuan and 49.1 billion yuan, respectively [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2026 have been adjusted to 1.03 yuan and 1.11 yuan, respectively [8]

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - As the quarter-end approaches, liquidity is marginally converging, with R007 rising by 44bp to 2.26% and DR007 up by 28bp to 2.05% from March 24-28[1] - The overnight rates remained relatively stable, with R001 slightly increasing by 1bp to 1.78% and DR001 decreasing by 3bp to 1.72%[1] - After the tax period, the central bank resumed net absorption, leading to an initial rise in funding rates, which later declined as the central bank signaled support[1] Group 2: Market Signals - The certificate of deposit (CD) market shows improvement, indicating reduced pressure on banks' liabilities at quarter-end, with net lending from the banking system rising to CNY 3.64 trillion[2] - The issuance of CDs decreased to over CNY 800 billion, with weighted issuance rates falling by 5bp to 1.94%[2] - The secondary market saw a decline in CD yields across all maturities, with the 1-month AAA CD yield dropping by 7bp to 1.93%[2] Group 3: Government Bonds and Debt - Government bond net payments significantly dropped to CNY 1,660 billion for the period of March 31 to April 3, down from CNY 6,219 billion the previous week[5] - The planned issuance of government bonds for the same period is CNY 1,877 billion, all of which are local government bonds[5] Group 4: Interbank Certificates and Rates - The interbank certificate maturity scale drastically decreased to CNY 1,011 billion for the upcoming week, compared to CNY 8,307 billion the previous week[6] - The weighted average issuance rate for interbank certificates fell to 1.94%, with the average issuance term shortening to 6.5 months[6]

仅供机构投资者使用 上周涨幅最大的行业是医药生物、农林牧渔，分别上涨 0.98%、0.56%；跌幅最大的行业是计算机、国防军工，分别 下跌 4.89%、3.98%。 今年以来有色金属、汽车行业表现最好，分别上涨 12.96%、12.30%。 PE 分位数最高的三个行业是钢铁、建筑材料、机械设 备，分别为 100%、98%、98%；PE 分位数最低的三个行业 是公用事业、食品饮料、社会服务，分别为 5%、9%、11%。 ► 行业拥挤度 证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 2025 年 3 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 一周市场数据复盘 20250328 [►Table宽_S基um指m数ar表y]现 上周多数指数出现下跌。中证 2000、中证 1000 跌幅较 大，分别下跌 3.90%、2.14%；上证 50 表现最好，上涨 0.16%。 今年以来小盘风格表现最好，中证 2000、中证 1000 指数 涨幅排名靠前，分别上涨 8.40%、5.21%。 ► 行业指数表现 我们使用行业指数最近一周价格和成交金额变动的马氏距 离衡量拥挤度。 上周纺织服饰行业出现短期交易超跌。 评级及分析师信息 [分Ta析b师l ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has opened 8 flagship stores, expecting operational leverage and profit elasticity [1] - In 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, net profit excluding non-recurring items, and operating cash flow were 6.802 billion, 258 million, 123 million, and 860 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 12.7%, 38.8%, 57.4%, and 32.6% [2] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.4 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 72.91% and a dividend yield of 2.55% [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 was 6.802 billion yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year, primarily due to store closures and a controlled discount strategy [2][3] - The net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 38.7% to 258 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 3.8% [2][5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 55.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved franchise gross margins [5] Store Operations - The company closed a total of 358 stores in 2024, with a net opening of 33 stores in Q4 [4] - The total number of stores at the end of 2024 was 3,373, down from 5,214 in 2021 [4] - The company is focusing on enhancing brand image and store efficiency through the opening of flagship stores and the closure of underperforming locations [3][4] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company expects a revenue growth of approximately 10%, with e-commerce facing downward pressure due to discount control [7] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 7.457 billion and 7.979 billion yuan respectively, while lowering net profit forecasts to 421 million and 507 million yuan [8] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with projected PE ratios of 18, 15, and 12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]

冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年3月29日 证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0324-0328） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年3月28日 目录 风险提示 3 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 15.13 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 showed a revenue of 503 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.78%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36 million yuan, a decrease of 23.98% year-on-year [1] - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 127 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.76% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.02% [2] - The company is experiencing strong growth in the semiconductor and autonomous driving sectors, with revenues increasing by 37.17% and 138.70% respectively [3] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 48.41%, down 3.48 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product structure and rising fixed costs [4] - The company’s operating expenses ratio was 37.92%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a revenue growth to 602 million yuan in 2025, 720 million yuan in 2026, and 858 million yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 19.6%, 19.7%, and 19.2% [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leading domestic industrial-grade precision optics manufacturer with a global layout to drive growth [8] - It has developed five core technologies in precision optics and is capable of providing integrated solutions from design to testing and assembly [8] - The company has established production bases in Thailand and a research center in the United States, enhancing its ability to serve international clients [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 44.211 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.56%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.753 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.50% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw the company achieve a record revenue of 12.727 billion yuan, up 34.28% year-on-year, indicating a clear inflection point in performance since Q3 2024 [2] - The company is focusing on four key business areas: robotics, AI glasses, foldable screens, and servers, which are expected to drive future growth [4][7][8] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 15.77%, down 4.17 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to new businesses not yet achieving scale [3] - The company has improved its expense control, with a total expense ratio of 8.58% in 2024, down 2.42 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 50.141 billion, 59.080 billion, and 69.267 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.500 billion, 3.403 billion, and 4.193 billion yuan [9] Business Segments - AI terminal business generated 40.731 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, up 32.75% year-on-year, driven by AI-enabled demand [2] - The automotive and low-altitude economy business achieved 2.117 billion yuan in revenue, a 52.90% increase year-on-year, benefiting from market growth and increased market share [2] - The company has established itself as a core supplier for AMD in the server segment, which is expected to deepen collaboration [8]

Global Market Overview - The global market experienced a pullback this week, following a previous oversold rebound in the US stock market. The technology and financial sectors faced significant declines, with notable stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, and Google showing marked downturns. Major financial stocks such as Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs also saw substantial declines [1][12][17] - The TAMAMA Technology Index fell by 3.08%, with a current P/E ratio of 31.6, indicating high valuation. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped by 5.99%, maintaining a P/E ratio of 40.5. The Nasdaq Index's P/E ratio remains at 38.8, suggesting continued high valuations amidst concerns over tariffs and a cooling AI trading phase [1][12][17] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio stands at 34.75, significantly above historical averages, indicating a need for further valuation digestion across various sectors including finance, consumer, healthcare, and industrials [1][12][17] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all recorded declines of 1.53%, 2.59%, and 0.96% respectively this week. Within the S&P 500, the consumer discretionary sector saw a gain of 1.65%, while the information technology sector experienced a decline of 3.65% [12][16] - The performance of US-listed Chinese stocks, represented by the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, fell by 2.29%, highlighting ongoing volatility in this segment [21][23] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market also faced declines, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index dropping by 1.11%, 1.55%, and 1.49% respectively. The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 2.36% [25][31] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong showed resilience with a gain of 3.41%, while the information technology sector fell by 2.31% [29][31] - Notable stocks in the Hang Seng Index included Country Garden Services, Shenzhou International, and Haidilao, which rose by 13.78%, 5.54%, and 4.52% respectively [31][32] Economic Data - In February 2025, the US core PCE year-on-year growth was reported at 2.79%, up from 2.66% previously, indicating inflationary pressures [4][43] - The UK CPI year-on-year growth for February was 2.8%, down from 3%, while the core CPI was 3.5%, also lower than the previous 3.7% [41][43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 met market expectations after excluding impairment losses, with a reported net profit of 3.343 billion RMB, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth when adjusted for certain factors [2] - The dividend payout ratio reached a new high of 50% in 2024, up from 45% in 2023, with an annualized dividend yield of 4% [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 28.676 billion RMB, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 5.5% to 3.013 billion RMB [2][9] - The EBITDA for 2024 was 6.379 billion RMB, showing a 3.6% increase, and operating cash flow was 5.268 billion RMB, up 12.4% [2] - The gross margin improved to 49.4%, a 1.0 percentage point increase, while the net profit margin decreased to 10.5%, down 1.0 percentage point [4] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from different channels in 2024 was as follows: distribution at 12.957 billion RMB (up 2.6%), direct sales at 6.883 billion RMB (down 0.3%), e-commerce at 8.305 billion RMB (up 10.3%), and overseas at 531 million RMB (down 0.2%) [3] - The company opened 78 new distribution stores and closed 201 direct sales stores, resulting in a total of 4,820 distribution stores and 1,297 direct sales stores by the end of 2024 [3] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The operating profit margin (OPM) slightly decreased to 12.8%, while the net profit margin was 10.5% [4] - Management and financial expenses increased, contributing to the decline in net profit margin [4] Inventory and Receivables Management - The company's inventory increased by 4.21% to 2.598 billion RMB, with an average inventory turnover period of 63 days [5] - Accounts receivable decreased by 16.67% to 1.005 billion RMB, with a turnover period of 14 days [5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates low single-digit revenue growth for 2025, with a focus on optimizing store structures and expanding into emerging markets [7] - Long-term growth is expected from the children's clothing segment, which is still in the cultivation phase [7] Earnings Forecast - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 29.251 billion RMB and 31.012 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.724 billion RMB and 2.965 billion RMB [9][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 1.05 RMB, down from previous estimates [7][9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that major companies in the textile and apparel industry have shown varying performance in their recent financial results, with some exceeding market expectations while others faced challenges due to external factors [2][3][4][5][21]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - Jian Sheng Group reported a revenue of 2.574 billion CNY and a net profit of 325 million CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12.81% and 20.15% respectively. The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.5 CNY per share, resulting in a dividend rate of 54.74% [2][18]. - Shenzhou International achieved a revenue of 28.663 billion CNY and a net profit of 6.241 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.67% and 36.94%. The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 2.53 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 55.8% [3][19]. - Jin Hong Group reported a revenue of 4.395 billion CNY and a net profit of 306 million CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year decline in revenue of 3.29%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.1 CNY per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend rate of 35% [4][20]. - Lululemon's Q4 revenue reached 3.6 billion USD, with a net profit of 750 million USD, marking a year-on-year growth of 13% and 12% respectively. The company plans to open 56 new stores, increasing its total to 767 [5][21]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the textile and apparel industry is experiencing mixed trends, with some segments like leisurewear showing strong growth while others face challenges due to market conditions and competition [8][22]. - The online sales data for February 2025 shows significant growth in the sports category, with sales on platforms like Douyin and Taobao increasing substantially [9][10]. Raw Material Prices - As of March 28, 2025, the domestic cotton price index was 14,864 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.32% in the recent period. The medium import cotton price index increased by 2.14% to 13,719 CNY/ton [11][37]. - The report also notes that wool prices have increased by 4.62% since the beginning of 2025, indicating a rising trend in raw material costs [42]. Industry News - Recent developments include Belle acquiring Champion's business in Greater China and Uniqlo accelerating its expansion in the UK market [12].