证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 03 日 [Table_Title] "乱纪元"之轮动思维 [Table_Title2] 类权益月报 [Table_Summary] ►行情回顾：关税新版本，政策新叙事 5 月，外部压力边际减缓，政策带来新叙事。5 月初，市场积 极交易中美贸易关系缓和预期。5 月 12 日，中美宣布互降关 税，市场则转而交易利好落地。政策方面，5 月 7 日，《推动公 募基金高质量发展行动方案》发布，"基金调仓"叙事受到关 注。5 月底，小微盘拥挤度推升至历史高位，行情震荡回调。 ► 海外预期：长期有底，但短期不确定性高悬 当前，市场对于海外的预期是长期有底，但短期不确定性仍 存。从第一轮谈判来看，中美在贸易方面共识多于分歧，但 短期特朗普关税政策存在较大的不确定性，法院最终是否会 判定特朗普依据IEEPA征收的关税无效，以及特朗普是否会采 取其他法律依据来征收关税仍未可知，后续可以重点关注后 续美国与欧洲和日本的谈判中，对于贸易顺差的处理。 ►权益板块轮动仍将延续，等待指数低波状态变化 海外预期的复杂组合下，市场或逐步进入脱敏状态，交易或 将更偏 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The planting industry is seeing significant progress with summer grain wheat harvest, reaching over 30% completion as of May 30, with favorable weather conditions expected to enhance soil moisture and facilitate mechanized sowing [10][11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, aiming to improve yield and self-sufficiency in key varieties, supported by government initiatives to protect new plant varieties [10] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of live pigs is showing a slight increase, with a current price of 14.39 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.36% [11][60] - The supply of breeding sows has slightly decreased, with a total of 40.38 million heads reported, while slaughtering volumes have increased significantly year-on-year [11][60] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - As of May 30, 1.29 million acres of summer wheat have been harvested, with regions like Hubei and Sichuan completing their harvests [10] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes the importance of mechanization to enhance yield and efficiency in sowing [10] - Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development for planting, and leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong for seed production [10] Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week [11] - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, while slaughtering volumes have increased by 20% year-on-year [11] - Recommended stocks in the breeding sector include Dekang Agriculture, Jinke Smart Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods, with feed companies like Haida Group also highlighted [11] Key Agricultural Products Data Tracking - Corn: Current average price is 2378.15 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [23] - Wheat: Current average price is 2457.51 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.35% [26] - Soybeans: Current average price is 3927.89 CNY/ton, remaining stable [38] - Cotton: Current average price is 14480.00 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.14% [42] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.71 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.73% [48] - Vitamin E is priced at 101.60 CNY/kg, with a decrease of 4.87% [48]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The report highlights a robust growth in visitor numbers during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a total of 6.87 billion people expected to travel, marking a 3.0% year-on-year increase. The demand for family-oriented travel has significantly surged, particularly for short-distance self-driving trips and parent-child tours [1][16] - The launch of new products by Lao Pu Gold, such as the Seven Sons Gourd, is expected to drive high demand in the fashion gold jewelry sector, despite a tightening overall consumption environment. The emotional value and aesthetic appeal of these products are anticipated to meet consumer needs effectively [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer service index and retail index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with respective increases of 1.11% and 2.77% [10] - The jewelry and watch sector saw a notable increase of 6.05% [10] 2. Industry & Company Dynamics 2.1 Industry News - The Dragon Boat Festival saw a significant increase in short-distance travel, with major cities experiencing a surge in tourist numbers [16] - Various regions hosted cultural activities, contributing to increased visitor engagement [17][19] 2.2 Industry Investment and Financing - Key investment events included several companies in the retail and e-commerce sectors securing funding, indicating a vibrant investment landscape [23][25] 2.3 Key Company Announcements - Notable announcements included changes in board members at various companies, reflecting ongoing corporate governance adjustments [26][27] 3. Macro & Industry Data 3.1 Retail Data - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in categories such as gold and jewelry, which saw a 25.3% increase [32][44] 3.2 Gold and Jewelry - National gold consumption in 2024 was reported at 985.31 tons, with a notable decline in jewelry consumption but an increase in gold bars and coins [46][48] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five investment themes, including the revival of traditional retail, advancements in AI technology, and the growing consumer willingness to pay for emotional value [52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025Q1, the overall performance of fixed - income + funds was mediocre, with a median yield of 0.29%. The scale of fixed - income + funds increased significantly, and their proportion in broad - based bond funds rose by 2 percentage points. The growth was mainly contributed by moderately convertible bond - enhanced and stock - enhanced products. High - performing products over - allocated technology stocks and manufacturing - related convertible bonds, and some leading products showed strong scale expansion capabilities [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025Q1 Fixed - income + Scale Proportion Significantly Rebounded - The performance of fixed - income + funds grew steadily in 2025Q1. The total scale increased to 138.0734 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 15.6029 billion yuan. The proportion in broad - based bond funds rose by 2 percentage points, the first significant rebound since 2022Q1, indicating market favor [2]. - The growth in scale was mainly contributed by moderately convertible bond - enhanced and stock - enhanced products. In 2025Q1, the scale of moderately convertible bond - enhanced, stock - enhanced, and convertible bond funds increased. The moderately convertible bond - enhanced scale increased by 9.4608 billion yuan, the stock - enhanced scale by 6.6139 billion yuan, and the convertible bond fund scale by 0.3438 billion yuan compared to 2024Q4 [2]. 3.2 High - performing Products Over - allocated Technology Stocks & Manufacturing - related Convertible Bonds 3.2.1 High - performing Funds' Convertible Bond Positions Were Highly Differentiated - Among stock - enhanced funds, high - performing products had an average yield of 1.54% in 2025Q1. Guotai Shuangli Bond had the highest yield of 5.49%, and Nongyin Ruikang 6 - month Holding had a yield of 2.52%. The average scale of high - performing stock - enhanced funds was 4.688 billion yuan, with 3 products exceeding 10 billion yuan [26]. - In terms of stock and convertible bond positions, the stock positions of high - performing stock - enhanced funds were mostly between 10% - 20%, with an average of 15.65%. The convertible bond positions varied greatly, with 3 products having over 10% and 7 products having less than 1% [27]. - Among convertible bond - enhanced funds, high - performing products had an average yield of 3.13% in 2025Q1, outperforming stock - enhanced products. Jinying Yuanfeng ranked first with 7.81%, followed by Nanfang Guangli Return with 6.29%. Some high - performing products also had relatively large scales [31]. - High - performing convertible bond - enhanced funds showed significant differentiation in stock and convertible bond allocation strategies. The average stock position was 10.70%, and the average convertible bond position was 52.16% [32]. 3.2.2 Asset Allocation of High - performing Funds: Over - allocation of Technology Stocks and Balanced Convertible Bonds - High - performing funds had a pure - bond position of 46.2%, a stock position of 14.5%, and a convertible bond position of 23.1%. Their high returns came from over - allocating technology stocks, reducing financial stock positions, and over - allocating manufacturing - related and balanced convertible bonds [37]. - In terms of equity asset industry distribution, high - performing funds over - allocated technology stocks by 7.2 percentage points, cycle and pharmaceutical stocks by 3.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, and under - allocated financial stocks by 8.3 percentage points compared to the overall market [37]. - In terms of convertible bond industry distribution, high - performing funds over - allocated manufacturing - related convertible bonds. In terms of convertible bond types, they over - allocated balanced convertible bonds by 5.3 percentage points compared to the overall market [41]. 3.3 Leading Products Showed Strong Scale Expansion Capabilities - On average, 31.0% of stock - enhanced and 54.2% of convertible bond - enhanced funds achieved net scale growth. Some products had significant scale increases, such as Huaxia Wenxiang Zengli 6 - month Rolling in stock - enhanced funds and Zhongyin State - owned Enterprise Bond in convertible bond - enhanced funds [44]. - Many leading products had large scales. For example, E Fund Yuxiang Return in stock - enhanced funds and Invesco Great Wall Jingyi Shuangli in convertible bond - enhanced funds had large sizes [45]. - By fund company, China Europe Fund had the fastest - growing fixed - income + fund scale, with an increase of 15.461 billion yuan. After the scale changes, E Fund, Invesco Great Wall Fund, and Fullgoal Fund ranked in the top three in terms of the stock scale of fixed - income + products [48][50]. 3.4 Appendix 3.4.1 Fixed - income + Funds Increased Holdings of Financial Stocks, and the Duration of Pure Bonds Narrowed - In 2025Q1, the pure - bond position of fixed - income + funds rebounded, while the convertible bond position decreased. The proportion of pure bonds increased by 1.4 percentage points, stocks by 0.4 percentage points, and convertible bonds decreased by 1.6 percentage points quarter - on - quarter [53]. - In terms of equity holdings, the proportion of financial stocks increased by 2.2 percentage points, while cycle and manufacturing stocks decreased by 2.1 and 1.8 percentage points respectively compared to 2024Q4 [56]. - In terms of convertible bond holdings, fixed - income + funds increased holdings of manufacturing and cycle convertible bonds and decreased holdings of financial convertible bonds. The proportion of balanced convertible bonds increased by 5.4 percentage points [59][60]. - In terms of pure - bond holdings, the position of financial bonds increased, while the positions of interest - rate and credit bonds decreased. The weighted average duration of pure bonds narrowed by 0.88 years quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4.2 Introduction to Fund Classification Method - The classification is mainly based on the average stock investment ratio, average convertible bond investment ratio, and other data. For funds that can invest in stocks, those with an average stock investment ratio greater than 20% are excluded, and different types of fixed - income + and pure - bond funds are classified according to specific rules [70]. - For funds that cannot buy stocks, they are classified into pure - bond and convertible bond - enhanced funds based on the average convertible bond investment ratio [71]. - Funds with "convertible bond" in their names are classified as convertible bond funds [72].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a robust growth in visitor numbers during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a projected total of 6.87 billion trips, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1][18] - The demand for family-oriented travel has surged, particularly for short-distance self-driving trips and parent-child tours, with bookings for parent-child group tours increasing by 80% year-on-year [1][2] - The launch of new products by Lao Pu Gold, such as the Seven Sons Gourd, is expected to drive high demand in the fashion gold jewelry sector, despite a tightening overall consumption environment [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer service index and retail index outperformed the CSI 300 index, with significant gains in the jewelry and watch sector [11] - The report notes a 5.1% year-on-year increase in total retail sales in April, with jewelry sales growing by 25.3% [36][50] 2. Industry & Company Dynamics - The report discusses the increase in domestic tourism, with various regions reporting significant visitor numbers during the holiday period [18][19] - Lao Pu Gold's new product launch is positioned to capture the growing trend in fashion jewelry, appealing to consumer sentiment and aesthetic preferences [2][3] 3. Macro & Industry Data - April's retail sales data indicates a stable growth trajectory, with online retail sales showing a 5.8% year-on-year increase [37] - The report provides insights into the gold jewelry market, noting a decline in overall gold consumption but an increase in gold bars and coins [52][55] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests five investment themes, including the revival of traditional retail formats, the rise of AI technology applications, and the potential for new retail sectors to outperform expectations [59][61]

[Table_Title] 6 月债市，乱中有序 [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ►五月多空交替，债市防御 5 月债市，行情多变且发展迅速，中美关税进展决定利率中枢， 资金松紧与市场情绪雕刻利率曲线日度变化。 月初降息落地，幅度不及预期，随后中美关税谈判迎来重要进 展，10年、30年国债收益率分别回到1.70%、1.90%附近水平。不过， 中美关税博弈缓和并未对债市形成持续压制，月中利率进入低波震荡 状态。下旬大行存款落地，债市短期利多均被兑现，叠加税期资金偏 紧，债市进入"阴跌"状态。月末美国关税先停后续，引发全球风险 偏好波动。 5 月随着利率运行方向逐渐模糊，性价比挖掘成为市场的主流策 略，投资者更加偏好具备票息保护或者相对胜率更高的品种。一览债 市各类资产表现，信用债 > 短利率 > 长利率，利率曲线呈现罕见的 熊陡变化，信用曲线则几乎平行下移。 ►市场"惩罚"被动持券，而"激励"主动择时 复盘年初以来，债市投资具备以下三个特征：一是短久期票息资 产持有体验较优，二是中短久期利率资产的持有体验较差，三是长久 期品种的博弈属性更强，被动投资回报降低，主动择时上限不 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In June 2025, air conditioner production increased by 11.5% year-on-year, with total production of major home appliances reaching 35.15 million units, a 7.3% increase compared to the same period last year [8][1] - DJI is entering the vacuum cleaner market with a new product expected to launch in June, positioning it as a mid-to-high-end model [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Air Conditioner Production and DJI's Entry into Vacuum Cleaners - Air conditioner production in June 2025 reached 20.5 million units, up 11.5% year-on-year. Domestic sales were affected by weather conditions, but the upcoming 618 shopping festival boosted production [8][1] - Refrigerator production was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase year-on-year, driven by promotional events and government subsidies [8][1] - Washing machine production remained flat at 6.75 million units year-on-year, with domestic demand showing signs of seasonal decline [9][1] 2. Company Highlights - Aima Technology plans to grant 14,175,524 restricted stock units, representing 1.645% of its total share capital, to 421 employees as part of its incentive plan [12] - Changhong Meiling announced an investment of approximately 296.42 million yuan to build a new air conditioner production line with an annual capacity of 4 million units [12] 3. Data Tracking - Raw material prices showed slight fluctuations, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 0.3% [13][20] - Shipping rates increased, with the CCFI composite index rising by 0.92% [20][21] - Real estate data indicated a decline in sales area, completion area, and new construction area by 3%, 17%, and 24% respectively for the first four months of 2025 [23][24]

►大行融出反弹，银行间杠杆抬升 银行间杠杆率回升。银行融出有所修复，本周（5 月 26-30 日）日均 银行体系融出规模回升至 3.56 万亿元，前一周为 3.02 万亿元。在此背景 下，银行间平均杠杆水平抬升，由前一周的 106.95%升至 107.18%。周内 来看，杠杆水平先升后降，周一至周四由 107.07%升至 107.35%，周五或 受跨月（跨假期）影响，杠杆水平快速降至 106.99%。 伴随平稳跨月、美国关税态度反复，非银机构杠杆率抬升，平均杠杆 水平由前一周的 111.66%升至 112.32%。周内来看，非银杠杆率整体呈连 续攀升的态势，由前一周五的 111.75%逐日抬升至周四的 112.66%，周五 小幅回落至 112.11%。 交易所杠杆率在持续抬升，平均杠杆水平由前一周的 123.28%小幅升 至 123.29%。周内来看，杠杆率"一波三折"，周三杠杆水平降至 122.90%的周内低点，周四短暂抬升后，周五再度降至 123.50%。 ►基金重新博弈久期 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 月末理财环比降 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略月报 风险提示：海外政策变化超预期，海外流动性风险，地缘政治风险等。 | 分析师：李立峰 | 分析师：张海燕 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱：lilf@hx168.com.cn | 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn | | SAC NO：S1120520090003 | SAC NO：S1120521040002 | 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 1） 海外方面，美国特朗普关税政策一波三折，需持续关注中美贸易谈判进展。本周美国关税政策多次反复，引发 市场预期扰动。5 月 28 日，美国国际贸易法院认定特朗普关税越权，"对等关税"和芬太尼关税将被取消，但 5 月 29 日，美国上诉法院就恢复实施了关税政策；5 月 30 日，美国总统特朗普表示，6 月 4 日起将把钢铁和铝 的进口关税从 25%提高至 50%。中美谈判方面，美国财长贝森特称中国贸易谈判"有点停滞"，并暗示破局需两 国领导人的参与；白宫国家经济委员会主任表示，中美可能于本周就关税问题进行会谈。现阶段中美贸易谈判 节奏偏慢或部分出于谈判战术考虑，后续中美二阶段磋商仍是市场风险偏好的关键影响因 ...

证券研究报告|中小盘周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 31 日 [Table_Title] 广东核能产业联盟会员大会在深举行，重点关注核聚变产业链 [Table_Title2] ——中小盘周报 [Table_Summary] ►本周市场表现：A 股主要指数呈现下跌调整，环保、医 药生物等板块涨幅居前 本周（指 5 月 26 日至 5 月 30 日，下同）上证指数（申万，下 同）收于 3,347.49 点，下跌 0.03%；深证成指收于 10,040.63 点，下跌 0.91%；创业板指收于 1,993.19 点，下跌 1.40%。本周 大盘指数收于 3,412.78 点，下跌 1.25%；小盘指数收于 4,385.99 点，上涨 0.81%，小盘/大盘收盘指数比值为 1.29。 本周 31 个申万一级行业中，环保、医药生物等板块涨幅相对居 前，汽车、电力设备等板块跌幅相对较大。 本周全 A 市场中,古麒绒材、路桥信息等 10 只股票涨幅居前，利 君股份、郑中设计等 10 只股票跌幅居前。 ►海外视角：本周美股三大指数呈现齐涨态势，港股三大 指数呈现下跌调整 本周（指 5 月 26 日至 5 ...