Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the acceleration of capital expenditure by global AI giants, with domestic players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent entering a phase of large-scale investment in AI computing and applications [19] - The report highlights the importance of self-controlled computing power in the AI sector, suggesting that the computing power supply chain is a core focus area for investment [19] - The report recommends focusing on seven major industry directions, including network equipment, IT equipment, AIDC data center construction, computing power leasing, cloud computing platforms, AI applications, and satellite internet & 6G [19] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Investment Insights - Global AI computing power is resonating, with a focus on self-controlled computing power [10] - OpenAI has released Sora2, a video and voice generation model, marking a significant advancement in video modeling capabilities [13][14] - OpenAI's DevDay 2025 introduced several tools and updates, positioning ChatGPT as a potential "operating system" for the AI era [15] - OpenAI has formed a strategic partnership with AMD to deploy 6GW of AMD GPU computing power for its next-generation AI infrastructure [16] - The report notes the acceleration of domestic computing power development with the release of new models [17][18] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of August 2025, China has 4.646 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 395,000 stations since the end of 2024 [29] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.154 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.46% [29] - In June 2025, 5G mobile phone shipments were 18.436 million units, accounting for 81.6% of total shipments, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.7% [29] 3. Operator Performance - The report highlights strong growth in innovative business development among major operators, with revenue from cloud services showing significant increases [40][44] - In the first half of 2025, China Mobile's cloud revenue reached 56.1 billion yuan, up 11.3% year-on-year [44] - China Telecom's cloud revenue was 57.3 billion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year, while China Unicom's cloud revenue reached 37.6 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year [44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the recent tariff discussions and geopolitical tensions will not abruptly halt the ongoing bull market in Chinese assets, as evidenced by past market reactions to similar events [3][4]. - The report highlights that the recent drop in indices following Trump's tariff comments is seen as a potential buying opportunity, similar to the market's recovery after the April 2025 tariff announcement [3][4]. - The report suggests that the market still has room for valuation increases until the securitization rate reaches 1, indicating that the total market value will match GDP [3]. Group 2 - The report advises against a blind switch in investment strategies, emphasizing that the current market conditions do not warrant a complete shift, with technology remaining a core focus [4]. - It notes that the recent market style switch reflects a rebalancing process, with technology, manufacturing, and cyclical sectors showing significant gains, indicating a more balanced market [4]. - The report cautions that discussions of a comprehensive switch in investment styles are premature, as current adjustments may be more defensive in nature [4]. Group 3 - The report continues to advocate for a dual focus on technology and PPI (Producer Price Index) as the optimal investment strategy, while also highlighting sectors like military and financial technology as potential amplifiers of risk appetite [5]. - It identifies key areas of focus including self-sufficiency, rare earths, and gold, which are deemed important in the current market context [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing robust demand, particularly in the high-end luxury passenger vehicle market, with expectations for performance growth as product matrices expand [7] - Chinese automakers are gaining significant market share in Europe, with nearly 10% in the hybrid vehicle market and over 9% in the electric vehicle market, indicating strong competitive pressure on traditional manufacturers [16] - The report highlights a decline in vehicle imports, with a 40.6% year-on-year decrease in August 2025, reflecting potential challenges in the market [17] Industry News - During the National Day holiday, Hongmeng Zhixing's entire vehicle lineup achieved over 48,500 pre-orders, with the new Wanjie M7 model accounting for over 31% of total orders [5][13] - Xpeng Motors is set to announce significant breakthroughs in physical AI at its upcoming AI Technology Day, which could enhance its competitive edge in the market [15] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has reviewed Seres' application for an H-share listing, indicating potential growth opportunities for the company [14] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index declining by 0.51% and the automotive sector falling by 1.48%, ranking 26th among A-share industries [6][22] - The commercial vehicle index saw a 3.01% increase, led by Jinlong Automobile and Yutong Bus, while the passenger vehicle index decreased by 1.39% [6][27] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the report recommends investing in Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, with Geely Automobile identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the auto parts sector, companies like Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong are recommended due to their growth potential amid industry changes [7]

2025 年 10 月 11 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 苏 良（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060004 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 相关研究报告 《有色金属板块的资金行为监测—金 融工程定期》-2025.10.10 《券商金股解析月报（2025 年 10 月） —金融工程定期》-2025.10.9 《港股量化：南下资金创 2021 年 2 月 以来新高，10 月增配有色—金融工程 定期》-2025.10.6 风险提示：模型测试基于历史数据，市场未来可能发生变化。 量化产品季度点评：300&500 增强 Q3 超额回 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the continued growth potential in the brokerage sector, driven by improved trading activity and regulatory changes in health insurance, which are expected to catalyze a new growth cycle [3][6] - The brokerage sector is projected to see a significant increase in net profit growth, with an expected year-on-year increase of 53.1% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a quarterly increase of 58% in Q3 [6][7] - The report identifies three main investment themes: brokers with strong retail advantages benefiting from cross-border asset management trials, firms with robust overseas and institutional business, and those excelling in wealth management [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes a substantial increase in trading activity, with the average daily trading volume for stock-based funds rising by 112% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 1.96 trillion [7] - The number of new accounts opened in the first eight months of 2025 was 17.21 million, a 48% increase compared to the previous year [7] Investment Banking - The report highlights a recovery in the IPO market, with a total of 78 IPO projects in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 13% year-on-year increase, and an IPO amount of 773 billion, up 61% [7][8] Asset Management - The report indicates a positive trend in public fund issuance, with new non-monetary and equity funds reaching 8.956 billion and 4.440 billion units respectively, marking increases of 5% and 183% year-on-year [8] Market Trends - The report discusses the performance of the stock and bond markets, noting a 17.94% increase in the CSI 300 index in the first three quarters of 2025, while the bond market saw a slight increase of 0.16% [9] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant increase in trading volume, with a year-on-year growth of 126% in the first three quarters of 2025 [10]

- The non-ferrous metal index (000819.SH) has increased by 83.14% since 2025, and by 83.87% since April 7, 2025, significantly outperforming the Wind All A Index during the same period [2][11][12] - Public fund holdings in the non-ferrous metal sector have rebounded since August 2025, based on real-time calculations using public market data such as fund net value, disclosed holdings, and research activities [3][15] - ETF holdings in the non-ferrous metal sector have been steadily increasing since July 2025, reflecting the growing popularity of index investment products, with the total scale of public ETF funds exceeding 4.3 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3][18][20] - Margin balance in the non-ferrous metal sector has been rising since July 2025, indicating increased investor optimism about the market outlook [3][22][23] - Chip yield characteristics show that the current profitability effect of the non-ferrous metal index is 25.14%, with chip yield reflecting the return rate of current prices relative to historical chip costs [3][25][26] - Institutional research has been most frequent for companies such as Northern Rare Earth, Yunnan Copper, and Chihong Zinc & Germanium in 2025 [4][27][29] - Ganfeng Lithium, Huayou Cobalt, and Zijin Mining have received the highest attention from Snowball platform influencers since September 15, 2025 [4][30][31][32] - Major funds have flowed into companies such as Quartz Co., Bowei Alloy, and Shenghe Resources since September 15, 2025, with large and super-large orders used as proxy variables for major funds [4][34][35][38] - Companies such as Bowei Alloy, Jinli Permanent Magnet, and China Rare Earth have appeared on the Dragon Tiger List since September 15, 2025, reflecting the most active trading dynamics in the market [4][39] - High-frequency shareholder data indicates significant increases in shareholder numbers for companies such as Chifeng Gold, Huafeng Aluminum, and Hunan Gold, which may signal potential risks for subsequent stock prices [4][41][43]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: Kaiyuan Quantitative Engineering Preferred Golden Stock Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the observation that newly introduced golden stocks outperform repeated golden stocks. It incorporates the earnings surprise factor (SUE factor) to select stocks with superior performance potential[23] **Model Construction Process**: - The sample consists of newly introduced golden stocks - Select the top 30 golden stocks with the highest earnings surprise (SUE factor) - Weight the selected stocks based on the number of recommendations by securities firms[23] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates superior performance compared to the overall golden stock portfolio, with higher annualized returns and a better return-to-volatility ratio[23] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. **Kaiyuan Quantitative Engineering Preferred Golden Stock Portfolio** - September return: 3.4% - 2025 YTD return: 42.3% - Annualized return: 22.6% - Annualized volatility: 25.5% - Return-to-volatility ratio: 0.89 - Maximum drawdown: 24.6%[26][27] 2. **Overall Golden Stock Portfolio** - September return: 3.1% - 2025 YTD return: 39.2% - Annualized return: 14.1% - Annualized volatility: 23.6% - Return-to-volatility ratio: 0.60 - Maximum drawdown: 42.6%[21][26] 3. **Newly Introduced Golden Stock Portfolio** - September return: 2.2% - 2025 YTD return: 41.6% - Annualized return: 16.7% - Annualized volatility: 24.2% - Return-to-volatility ratio: 0.69 - Maximum drawdown: 38.5%[21][18] 4. **Repeated Golden Stock Portfolio** - September return: 3.9% - 2025 YTD return: 38.0% - Annualized return: 11.9% - Annualized volatility: 23.8% - Return-to-volatility ratio: 0.50 - Maximum drawdown: 45.0%[21][18] 5. **Benchmark Indices** - CSI 300 Index: - September return: 3.2% - 2025 YTD return: 17.9% - Annualized return: 3.7% - Annualized volatility: 21.3% - Return-to-volatility ratio: 0.17 - Maximum drawdown: 40.6%[21][26] - CSI 500 Index: - September return: 5.2% - 2025 YTD return: 29.5% - Annualized return: 2.0% - Annualized volatility: 23.9% - Return-to-volatility ratio: 0.08 - Maximum drawdown: 37.5%[21][26] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name**: Earnings Surprise Factor (SUE Factor) **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor identifies stocks with earnings that significantly exceed market expectations, which are likely to outperform in the short term[23] **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the earnings surprise for each stock as the difference between actual earnings and consensus estimates - Rank stocks based on their earnings surprise values - Select the top-performing stocks with the highest earnings surprise values for inclusion in the portfolio[23] **Factor Evaluation**: The SUE factor demonstrates strong stock selection ability, particularly within the newly introduced golden stock portfolio[23] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. **SUE Factor** - Demonstrated superior stock selection ability in the newly introduced golden stock portfolio, contributing to its outperformance over repeated golden stocks[23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing significant developments, highlighted by OpenAI's release of the Sora2.0 video generation model, which is expected to accelerate the proliferation of AI applications [4][12] - The computer index rose by 2.47% during the week of September 29 to September 30, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.99% [11] Summary by Sections Market Review - The computer index increased by 2.47% while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.99% during the week of September 29 to September 30, 2025 [11] AI Industry Developments - OpenAI launched Sora2.0, marking a significant advancement in video generation technology, which is expected to enhance AI application capabilities [4][12] - The Sora application achieved the top position in the Apple App Store's free apps category shortly after its launch, surpassing competitors like ChatGPT and Gemini [4][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the AI industry trends influenced by the US-China industrial resonance, recommending companies such as Haiguang Information, Zhongke Shuguang, and others in the computing power sector [15] - Beneficiary stocks include Cambrian, Bojie Co., and Unisplendour among others, with additional recommendations for AI applications including Kingsoft Office, Zhuyun Information, and others [15]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The U.S. government is facing a shutdown due to budget disagreements, which has led to a rise in gold prices, while domestic consumption remains stronger in volume than in price [4][6] - Japan may see its first female Prime Minister, which could positively impact the Japanese stock market [4] - The global economy shows signs of weakness, with the U.S. ADP employment figures declining and manufacturing PMIs in the Eurozone and Japan decreasing [6] Group 2: Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors recently include non-ferrous metals, defense, real estate, electric power equipment, and pharmaceuticals, with respective gains of 3.224%, 2.590%, 2.123%, 1.714%, and 1.405% [3][4] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery, with the PMI for September at 49.8%, indicating a slight improvement [19][20] - The non-manufacturing PMI remains stable at 50.0%, reflecting a balanced economic environment [22] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes a focus on technology sectors, particularly AI and semiconductor industries, as key investment themes [12][14] - There is a recommendation to explore opportunities in gaming, media, and the Huawei supply chain as potential growth areas [12][15] - The report suggests a diversified asset allocation strategy, favoring short-term bonds, undervalued convertible bonds, and gold assets [38][39] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Hengxin Life is highlighted as a leading company in biodegradable food packaging, with significant production capacity and strong ties to major global brands [56] - Hanhigh Group is recognized for its strong market presence in the home hardware industry, leveraging a multi-channel approach for market penetration [57] - Jiyuan Group is noted for its comprehensive capabilities in the dietary supplement industry, being a major supplier for several well-known brands [58] Group 5: Health Insurance Sector - The health insurance sector is expected to see significant growth driven by new regulatory guidelines aimed at enhancing product offerings and market accessibility [60][61] - Major insurance companies are increasingly integrating health management services into their offerings, which is anticipated to improve profitability and market share [62] - The report recommends key players in the health insurance space, including China Ping An and China Taiping, as beneficiaries of these trends [62]

Group 1: Hengxin Life - Hengxin Life is a leading enterprise in the biodegradable food service ware industry, deeply bound to global top restaurant brands [1][10] - The company has established a production capacity of 9 billion paper and plastic food service items annually, with multiple production bases in China and a global layout including a factory in Thailand [1][10] - The demand for food service ware is robust, driven by urbanization and rising income levels, leading to an upgrade in consumer expectations for quality, environment, service, and experience [1][25] - The revenue from paper food service products is the highest, with a gross margin of 36.09%, while plastic food service products also maintain a high gross margin of 33.97% [11][12] - The company has shown significant revenue growth from 420 million in 2020 to 1.594 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.21% [15][24] Group 2: Hanhai Group - Hanhai Group is a prominent brand in the domestic home hardware and outdoor furniture industry, with a strong reputation built over nearly 20 years [2][18] - The company has expanded its market share through product innovation and a comprehensive marketing network, with 381 distributors as of June 2025 [2][18] - The home hardware and outdoor furniture market is expected to grow significantly, driven by consumer upgrades and technological advancements [2][20] - Hanhai Group's revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a notable increase in brand recognition among consumers [2][18] Group 3: Jiyuan Group - Jiyuan Group has over 20 years of experience in the dietary supplement industry, serving as a core supplier for many well-known brands [3][32] - The company is the largest global supplier of HMB, holding over 50% of the market share, and is also a key player in the glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate markets [3][32] - The dietary supplement market is expected to grow significantly due to increasing consumer awareness of health and nutrition [3][34] - Jiyuan Group has established a comprehensive supply chain and is actively developing innovative nutritional raw materials [3][42]