医药持续复苏，关注医药国产替代、医美及底部优质医药出海标的 2025 年 04 月 21 日 ➢ 医药周观点：医药板块基本面持续向上复苏，本周继续重点关注医药领域国产替代、 医美（胶原蛋白方向等）及底部优质出海标的。医药领域国产替代关注科学仪器、医疗设 备（CT 等方向）、血制品（白蛋白）、医疗耗材、医药包材等。另一方面持续关注创新药 板块重点品种临床数据读出、BD 等里程碑进展。 ➢ 1）创新药：信达生物启动了评估玛仕度肽在患有中重度阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停且肥胖 的受试者中有效性和安全性的 III 期临床试验（GLORY-OSA）；礼来口服小分子 GLP-1R 激动剂 orforglipron 降糖 III 期成功；辉瑞宣布终止开发口服 GLP-1R 激动剂 Danuglipron；康方生物依若奇单抗作为国内首个 IL-12/23 靶点药物成功获批；诺诚健 华泛 TRK 抑制剂 Zurletrectinib 上市申请获得受理；恒瑞医药启动了 CD79b ADC 产品 SHR-A1912 的国内 III 期临床研究。2）CXO：国内外需求平稳向上，持续看好龙头公司 逐季度订单和收入改善。3）中医药：关注中医药及中 ...

➢ 投资建议：重点关注恒瑞医药、百济神州、一品红、三生制药、艾力斯、新诺威、信 达生物、和黄医药、众生药业、博瑞医药、健友股份，药明康德、药明生物、药明合联、 普蕊斯、康龙化成、凯莱英，迈瑞医疗、三友医疗、惠泰医疗、微电生理、聚光科技、迈 普医学、赛诺医疗、洁特生物，同仁堂、羚锐制药、健民集团、马应龙等。 医药持续复苏，关注医药国产替代、医美及底部优质医药出海标的 2025 年 04 月 21 日 ➢ 医药周观点：医药板块基本面持续向上复苏，本周继续重点关注医药领域国产替代、 医美（胶原蛋白方向等）及底部优质出海标的。医药领域国产替代关注科学仪器、医疗设 备（CT 等方向）、血制品（白蛋白）、医疗耗材、医药包材等。另一方面持续关注创新药 板块重点品种临床数据读出、BD 等里程碑进展。 ➢ 1）创新药：信达生物启动了评估玛仕度肽在患有中重度阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停且肥胖 的受试者中有效性和安全性的 III 期临床试验（GLORY-OSA）；礼来口服小分子 GLP-1R 激动剂 orforglipron 降糖 III 期成功；辉瑞宣布终止开发口服 GLP-1R 激动剂 Danuglipron；康方生物依若奇单抗作为国内 ...

经济动态跟踪 二季度出口："抢转口"对冲几何？ 2025 年 04 月 21 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com ➢ 以 4 月 9 日为分水岭，二季度特朗普的关税政策随之进入一个新的阶段， 即由对贸易逆差国全面征收报复性关税，转向以关税为谈判杠杆对中国以外的经 济体暂缓关税。在这一阶段，"抢转口"似乎成为了出口"乌云背后的银线"。 ➢ 展望二季度，出口存在两面性。一方面在高额关税下中美间已接近"不可贸 易"。另一方面，关税暂缓 90 天也为国内出口的"退中求进"提供了缓冲。我们 测算，"抢转口"、清单豁免等有望合计拉动出口同比上升 5 个百分点左右，从而 延缓二季度出口下行斜率的陡峭化，为国内政策的部署争取时间和空间。 我们将围绕美国关税影响程度和"抢转口"对冲力度展开分析： ➢ 基于最新 145%的累计新增关税，中美之间接近"不可贸易"。4 月 10 日， 美方针对中国商品累计加征关税税率达到 145%；15 ...

Group 1 - The credit market is experiencing structural weakness, with credit bond yields fluctuating alongside interest rates. Mid to long-term credits (3-4 years) are performing relatively well, while ultra-long credits are declining due to strong liquidity demands from institutions [1][12][38] - The buying power for ultra-long credit bonds is weakening, despite similar buying intensity compared to historical data. This is attributed to redemption disturbances leading to selling pressure, which is not sufficiently countered by returning buying power [2][19][24] - The low coupon rates of ultra-long credits (below 2.4%-2.5%) limit capital gain potential, making it difficult to engage in capital gain speculation. The ability to withstand price fluctuations is also low, with a tolerance of only 5 basis points [3][23][25] Group 2 - Short-term credits are actively traded, benefiting from their defensive characteristics and certainty. However, there is a scarcity of selling pressure due to institutions' reluctance to part with their holdings [4][31] - The 3-5 year segment of the credit curve remains steep, presenting opportunities for investors to capture yield through duration extension strategies [5][33] - The overall credit market is expected to compress spreads in the second quarter, supported by demand for wealth management products and allocation forces. Short-term credits will depend on the funding side, while long-term credits will gradually develop [6][35] Group 3 - In the primary market, the issuance of ultra-long bonds has increased, with a total issuance of 4,212 billion yuan and a net financing of 814 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance rate for credit bonds is 2.07%, remaining stable compared to the previous week [38][41] - The effective subscription multiple for credit bonds has decreased to 0.90 times, indicating weakened subscription sentiment, particularly in the short-term segment [38][42] - The ultra-long credit bonds issued during the week totaled 303 billion yuan, with some issuers offering coupon rates above 2.8% [46]

固收周度点评 20250421 财政来了，货币还远吗？ 2025 年 04 月 21 日 2025/4/18，税期压力下央行实现净投放 2220 亿元，资金面维持合理均 衡，美东时间 4 月 17 日，特朗普对中美关税战的态度有所缓和，市场博弈关税 政策变化和货币宽松预期，利率债收益率走势分化，短端表现偏弱，中长端下行。 2Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别变动+0.8BP、-0.1BP、-0.3BP、+0.6BP 至 1.45%、1.50%、1.65%、1.90%。 ➢ 税期央行呵护有加，资金面维持均衡平稳 ➢ 本周债市定价关税政策变化和供给放量预期，债市维持偏弱震荡，曲线趋平 本周（4/14-4/18）债市震荡偏弱，短端和超长端明显弱势，长端利率小幅 下行，曲线整体结构性走平，背后有几点扰动因素：一是高关税政策落地后，市 场可能交易边际缓和预期；二是超长期特别国债发行明牌，供给放量预期升温； 三是稳增长政策加码发力，尤其在扩内需、稳地产等方面的举措是否能够弥补外 需冲击。 全周收益率走势来看，债市走势涨跌不一，短端和超长端表现偏弱，长端小 幅下行。截至 4/18，1Y、2Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益 ...

华力创通（300045.SZ）2024 年年报点评 业绩短暂承压，坚定看好卫星通导长期趋势 2025 年 04 月 20 日 ➢ 事件：北京时间 4 月 17 日晚，华力创通发布 2024 年年报，24 年实现营业 收入 5.47 亿元，同比减少 22.93%，实现归母净利-1.43 亿元。 ➢ 受形势影响公司业绩短暂承压。公司业绩承压主要系下半年部分项目产品交 付时间被动推迟，交付周期延长（公司 24 年存货 6.04 亿元，相较 23 年增长了 2.63 亿元），未能在预期时间内转化为业绩收入，因此公司下半年营业收入及归 母净利相较于去年同期下降，导致 24 年全年亏损。毛利率方面，公司 24 年毛利 率为 29.60%，同比-4.42pct，主要是卫星应用产品毛利率下降导致。25 年是我 国"十四五"规划的收官年，各项战略任务进入最后冲刺阶段，我们预计特种行 业产品交付将加快。为保持核心竞争力，公司研发费用仍保持高位，24 年达到 0.88 亿元，同比增长 18.16%，研发费用率为 16.11%，相较 23 年提高 5.61pct， 但同时也给净利率造成了压力。公司经营活动现金流稳健充足（同比+152 ...

非银行业周报 20250420 险企渠道改革提速 2025 年 04 月 20 日 ➢ 人身险个人营销体制改革落地，深化个险渠道"报行合一"。2025 年 4 月 18 日，国家金融监督管理总局发布了《关于推动深化人身保险行业个人营销体 制改革的通知》（以下简称《通知》），针对当前个人营销体制中存在的问题进行了 针对性的约束和引导，头部险企主要以个险渠道为主，《通知》有望推动头部险企 渠道端提质增效，负债端质量有望进一步提升。1）优化佣金激励分配机制，引 导个险代理人进行长期服务，提升长期服务水平，险企有望建立以业务品质、服 务质量为导向的佣金激励设计和递延发放机制，有望提升渠道人力长期留存和长 期服务意识，有望推动个险渠道核心人力的占比、产能及收入的稳步提升，NBV 稳健增长有望持续。2）深化执行个险渠道"报行合一"：《通知》要求健全完善费 用分摊机制，加强总费用与各类费用之间的统筹规划，明确总费用水平和费用结 构，有望真正落地实现精算假设费用、预算费用和考核费用相统一，减少费用乱 象，提升险企潜在"费差益"水平并有望缓解利率中枢下行带来的潜在利差损压 力。 ➢ 中证协发布《证券公司并表管理指引》（试行稿） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 127.0 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 7.8 billion yuan, up 28.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 35.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. The profit growth is attributed to cost reduction measures and improved profitability in overseas operations, particularly in North America [2][3]. - The company is focusing on global expansion, with significant achievements in North America, where it reported self-operated business revenue of 200 million USD, a 50.5% increase year-on-year, marking its first profitable year [3]. - The company is developing a third growth curve through its digital and energy management division, securing substantial orders in 2024, including projects in energy storage and cooling systems [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 127.0 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.1% and a net profit of 7.8 billion yuan. The non-recurring net profit was 6.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 35.0 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.2% and a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan [2]. Growth Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 156.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan, and 217.6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10.9 billion yuan, 14.4 billion yuan, and 17.9 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.31 yuan, 1.72 yuan, and 2.15 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 18, 13, and 11 for the same years [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.322 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.41% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 614 million yuan, up 13.25% year-on-year [1]. - The electric equipment segment continues to grow, with revenue from this business reaching 1.811 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.47% [2]. - The company is accelerating its international market expansion, with export revenues of 485 million yuan in 2024, a 41% increase year-on-year, accounting for 26.7% of total revenue [2]. - An employee stock ownership plan has been announced, involving the allocation of up to 15 million shares, reflecting the company's confidence in its growth targets [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 48.8%, a decrease of 3.43 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 26.69%, down 1.39 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.612 billion yuan, 2.970 billion yuan, and 3.353 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.5%, 13.7%, and 12.9% respectively [4][5]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 710 million yuan, 828 million yuan, and 955 million yuan, with growth rates of 15.6%, 16.5%, and 15.4% respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance, achieving sales revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 233 million yuan, up 37.02% year-on-year [1][3]. - The growth is driven by the automotive electronics and energy storage sectors, which together accounted for 56.32% of the company's revenue in Q1 2025, with automotive electronics revenue growing by 65.46% and energy management revenue increasing by 23.87% [1][2]. - The company has optimized its sales structure and maintained steady growth in other business lines, such as ceramics and PCB, which generated 128 million yuan in revenue, a 5.02% increase year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 36.56%, a slight decrease of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 2.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company’s Q1 sales revenue decreased by 14.17% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit increased by 12.02% due to ongoing improvements in production efficiency and operational models [2]. Business Segments - The automotive electronics and energy storage sectors are expected to continue driving growth, with projected combined sales of 1.104 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.10% [2]. - The company is recognized as one of the few active Chinese component manufacturers in the global automotive electronics market, with increasing market share in small power automotive transformers [2]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 reached 116 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.62%, indicating a commitment to strengthening technological barriers and product performance [3]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in materials and processes, enhancing its high-end component layout and manufacturing efficiency [3]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.079 billion yuan, 1.333 billion yuan, and 1.615 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 17, and 14 [3][4].