Group 1 - The credit market is experiencing structural weakness, with credit bond yields fluctuating alongside interest rates. Mid to long-term credits (3-4 years) are performing relatively well, while ultra-long credits are declining due to strong liquidity demands from institutions [1][12][38] - The buying power for ultra-long credit bonds is weakening, despite similar buying intensity compared to historical data. This is attributed to redemption disturbances leading to selling pressure, which is not sufficiently countered by returning buying power [2][19][24] - The low coupon rates of ultra-long credits (below 2.4%-2.5%) limit capital gain potential, making it difficult to engage in capital gain speculation. The ability to withstand price fluctuations is also low, with a tolerance of only 5 basis points [3][23][25] Group 2 - Short-term credits are actively traded, benefiting from their defensive characteristics and certainty. However, there is a scarcity of selling pressure due to institutions' reluctance to part with their holdings [4][31] - The 3-5 year segment of the credit curve remains steep, presenting opportunities for investors to capture yield through duration extension strategies [5][33] - The overall credit market is expected to compress spreads in the second quarter, supported by demand for wealth management products and allocation forces. Short-term credits will depend on the funding side, while long-term credits will gradually develop [6][35] Group 3 - In the primary market, the issuance of ultra-long bonds has increased, with a total issuance of 4,212 billion yuan and a net financing of 814 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance rate for credit bonds is 2.07%, remaining stable compared to the previous week [38][41] - The effective subscription multiple for credit bonds has decreased to 0.90 times, indicating weakened subscription sentiment, particularly in the short-term segment [38][42] - The ultra-long credit bonds issued during the week totaled 303 billion yuan, with some issuers offering coupon rates above 2.8% [46]

固收周度点评 20250421 财政来了，货币还远吗？ 2025 年 04 月 21 日 2025/4/18，税期压力下央行实现净投放 2220 亿元，资金面维持合理均 衡，美东时间 4 月 17 日，特朗普对中美关税战的态度有所缓和，市场博弈关税 政策变化和货币宽松预期，利率债收益率走势分化，短端表现偏弱，中长端下行。 2Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别变动+0.8BP、-0.1BP、-0.3BP、+0.6BP 至 1.45%、1.50%、1.65%、1.90%。 ➢ 税期央行呵护有加，资金面维持均衡平稳 ➢ 本周债市定价关税政策变化和供给放量预期，债市维持偏弱震荡，曲线趋平 本周（4/14-4/18）债市震荡偏弱，短端和超长端明显弱势，长端利率小幅 下行，曲线整体结构性走平，背后有几点扰动因素：一是高关税政策落地后，市 场可能交易边际缓和预期；二是超长期特别国债发行明牌，供给放量预期升温； 三是稳增长政策加码发力，尤其在扩内需、稳地产等方面的举措是否能够弥补外 需冲击。 全周收益率走势来看，债市走势涨跌不一，短端和超长端表现偏弱，长端小 幅下行。截至 4/18，1Y、2Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益 ...

华力创通（300045.SZ）2024 年年报点评 业绩短暂承压，坚定看好卫星通导长期趋势 2025 年 04 月 20 日 ➢ 事件：北京时间 4 月 17 日晚，华力创通发布 2024 年年报，24 年实现营业 收入 5.47 亿元，同比减少 22.93%，实现归母净利-1.43 亿元。 ➢ 受形势影响公司业绩短暂承压。公司业绩承压主要系下半年部分项目产品交 付时间被动推迟，交付周期延长（公司 24 年存货 6.04 亿元，相较 23 年增长了 2.63 亿元），未能在预期时间内转化为业绩收入，因此公司下半年营业收入及归 母净利相较于去年同期下降，导致 24 年全年亏损。毛利率方面，公司 24 年毛利 率为 29.60%，同比-4.42pct，主要是卫星应用产品毛利率下降导致。25 年是我 国"十四五"规划的收官年，各项战略任务进入最后冲刺阶段，我们预计特种行 业产品交付将加快。为保持核心竞争力，公司研发费用仍保持高位，24 年达到 0.88 亿元，同比增长 18.16%，研发费用率为 16.11%，相较 23 年提高 5.61pct， 但同时也给净利率造成了压力。公司经营活动现金流稳健充足（同比+152 ...

非银行业周报 20250420 险企渠道改革提速 2025 年 04 月 20 日 ➢ 人身险个人营销体制改革落地，深化个险渠道"报行合一"。2025 年 4 月 18 日，国家金融监督管理总局发布了《关于推动深化人身保险行业个人营销体 制改革的通知》（以下简称《通知》），针对当前个人营销体制中存在的问题进行了 针对性的约束和引导，头部险企主要以个险渠道为主，《通知》有望推动头部险企 渠道端提质增效，负债端质量有望进一步提升。1）优化佣金激励分配机制，引 导个险代理人进行长期服务，提升长期服务水平，险企有望建立以业务品质、服 务质量为导向的佣金激励设计和递延发放机制，有望提升渠道人力长期留存和长 期服务意识，有望推动个险渠道核心人力的占比、产能及收入的稳步提升，NBV 稳健增长有望持续。2）深化执行个险渠道"报行合一"：《通知》要求健全完善费 用分摊机制，加强总费用与各类费用之间的统筹规划，明确总费用水平和费用结 构，有望真正落地实现精算假设费用、预算费用和考核费用相统一，减少费用乱 象，提升险企潜在"费差益"水平并有望缓解利率中枢下行带来的潜在利差损压 力。 ➢ 中证协发布《证券公司并表管理指引》（试行稿） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 127.0 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 7.8 billion yuan, up 28.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company's performance in Q4 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 35.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. The profit growth is attributed to cost reduction measures and improved profitability in overseas operations, particularly in North America [2][3]. - The company is focusing on global expansion, with significant achievements in North America, where it reported self-operated business revenue of 200 million USD, a 50.5% increase year-on-year, marking its first profitable year [3]. - The company is developing a third growth curve through its digital and energy management division, securing substantial orders in 2024, including projects in energy storage and cooling systems [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 127.0 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.1% and a net profit of 7.8 billion yuan. The non-recurring net profit was 6.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 35.0 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.2% and a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan [2]. Growth Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 156.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan, and 217.6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10.9 billion yuan, 14.4 billion yuan, and 17.9 billion yuan for the same years [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.31 yuan, 1.72 yuan, and 2.15 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 18, 13, and 11 for the same years [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.322 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.41% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 614 million yuan, up 13.25% year-on-year [1]. - The electric equipment segment continues to grow, with revenue from this business reaching 1.811 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.47% [2]. - The company is accelerating its international market expansion, with export revenues of 485 million yuan in 2024, a 41% increase year-on-year, accounting for 26.7% of total revenue [2]. - An employee stock ownership plan has been announced, involving the allocation of up to 15 million shares, reflecting the company's confidence in its growth targets [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 48.8%, a decrease of 3.43 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 26.69%, down 1.39 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.612 billion yuan, 2.970 billion yuan, and 3.353 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.5%, 13.7%, and 12.9% respectively [4][5]. - The projected net profits for the same years are 710 million yuan, 828 million yuan, and 955 million yuan, with growth rates of 15.6%, 16.5%, and 15.4% respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance, achieving sales revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 233 million yuan, up 37.02% year-on-year [1][3]. - The growth is driven by the automotive electronics and energy storage sectors, which together accounted for 56.32% of the company's revenue in Q1 2025, with automotive electronics revenue growing by 65.46% and energy management revenue increasing by 23.87% [1][2]. - The company has optimized its sales structure and maintained steady growth in other business lines, such as ceramics and PCB, which generated 128 million yuan in revenue, a 5.02% increase year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 36.56%, a slight decrease of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 2.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company’s Q1 sales revenue decreased by 14.17% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit increased by 12.02% due to ongoing improvements in production efficiency and operational models [2]. Business Segments - The automotive electronics and energy storage sectors are expected to continue driving growth, with projected combined sales of 1.104 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.10% [2]. - The company is recognized as one of the few active Chinese component manufacturers in the global automotive electronics market, with increasing market share in small power automotive transformers [2]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 reached 116 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.62%, indicating a commitment to strengthening technological barriers and product performance [3]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in materials and processes, enhancing its high-end component layout and manufacturing efficiency [3]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.079 billion yuan, 1.333 billion yuan, and 1.615 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21, 17, and 14 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance, achieving sales revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 233 million yuan, up 37.02% year-on-year [1][3]. - The growth is driven by the automotive electronics and energy storage sectors, which together accounted for 56.32% of the company's revenue in Q1 2025, with automotive electronics revenue growing by 65.46% and energy management revenue increasing by 23.87% [1][2]. - The company has optimized its sales structure and maintained steady growth in other business lines, such as ceramics and PCBs, which saw a revenue increase of 5.02% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 36.56%, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.39 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.07 percentage points [1]. - The company’s Q1 sales revenue decreased by 14.17% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit increased by 12.02% due to ongoing improvements in production efficiency and operational models [2]. Business Segments - The automotive electronics and energy storage sectors are expected to continue driving growth, with projected combined sales revenue of 1.104 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.10% [2]. - The company is recognized as one of the few active Chinese component manufacturers in the global automotive electronics market, with increasing market share in small power automotive transformers [2]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 reached 116 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.62%, indicating a commitment to strengthening technological barriers and product performance [3]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in materials and manufacturing processes, enhancing product consistency and efficiency [3]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.079 billion yuan, 1.333 billion yuan, and 1.615 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 21, 17, and 14 [3][4].

海量数据(603138.SH)2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 自主数据库业务高增，核心业务高成长体现自身实力 2025 年 04 月 20 日 ➢ 事件概述：2025 年 4 月 17 日公司发布 2024 年年报以及 2025 年一季报， 2024 年营业收入 3.72 亿元，同比增长 42.26%；归属于上市公司股东的净亏损 6332.7 万元，去年同期净亏损 8118.27 万元。2025 年一季度营收为 8133.21 万元，同比增长 25.20%；净亏损 1768.76 万元，去年同期净亏损 652.98 万元。 ➢ 数据库业务实现高增长，毛利率大幅提升。1）2024 年公司数据库自主产品 和服务业务收入 1.4 亿元，同比增长 35%；数据库自主产品和服务业务毛利率 74%，比上年同期提升增加 11.64 个百分点。2025 年一季度公司数据库业务保 持高速增长：2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 8133.21 万元，其中数据库自主产品和 服务收入 4955.05 万元，较去年同期增长 54.89%。 2）研发持续推进，核心技术突破：公司发布的 Vastbase G100 V3.0 版本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies including Three Gorges Energy, Changjiang Electric Power, and China Nuclear Power, while providing a "Cautious Recommendation" for China General Nuclear Power and others [23][24]. Core Insights - The electricity sector outperformed the market, with the public utility sector index rising by 1.77% and the electricity sub-sector by 1.81% during the week ending April 18, 2025 [1][8]. - In Q1 2025, the National Energy Administration issued 662 million green certificates, with a total of 5.617 billion certificates issued by the end of March 2025, indicating a significant increase in green electricity trading [2][25]. - The total electricity consumption in March 2025 reached 828.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with notable growth in the primary and tertiary industries [3][32]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The electricity sector index closed at 2318.99 points, up 40.42 points, while the electricity sub-sector closed at 3099.51 points, up 54.97 points, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [1][8]. - The thermal power sector showed the best performance with a 2.99% increase, while solar and wind power sectors experienced slight declines [15][20]. Green Certificate Trading - The trading volume of green certificates in the southern region reached 128.9 billion kWh in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 148% [2][25]. - The market price for green certificates remains stable in the range of 1-5 yuan per certificate, influenced by production time, regional supply and demand, and power source types [2][26]. Electricity Consumption Data - In March 2025, the first industry consumed 10.6 billion kWh (up 9.9%), the second industry consumed 557.8 billion kWh (up 3.8%), and the third industry consumed 148.4 billion kWh (up 8.4%) [3][32]. - Cumulative electricity consumption for the first three months of 2025 was 2384.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks and those with stable performance and relatively low valuations, highlighting companies such as Funiu Co., Changjiang Electric Power, and others [21][22]. - It emphasizes the potential of wind and thermal power assets, recommending Three Gorges Energy and Funiu Co. while cautiously recommending others [22][23].