Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for China's pension insurance system, highlighting the overall good performance of the three pillars of pension funds and the social security fund's steady progress [1]. Core Insights - The basic pension insurance fund has achieved good returns through entrusted investments, with an average annual return of 5.00%, significantly higher than the guaranteed rate of 2.88% [1][20]. - The National Social Security Fund has shown excellent investment performance, with a cumulative annualized return of 7.36% and total net fiscal input of 1.14 trillion yuan, alongside cumulative investment gains of 1.68 trillion yuan [1][34]. - The enterprise annuity and occupational annuity systems are operating conservatively, with the enterprise annuity fund reaching a scale of 3.61 trillion yuan and an annualized return of 6.17% [1][50]. - The third pillar, individual pensions, is still in its early stages, with a focus on low-risk products, indicating a potential for growth as financial literacy improves among residents [1][47]. Summary by Sections Basic Pension Insurance Fund - The basic pension insurance fund is primarily managed through local retention (77%) and entrusted investments (23%), with the latter showing a steady increase since 2012 [1][12]. - The average return on local retention is between 2% and 3%, while entrusted investments have yielded an average return of 5.00% since 2016 [1][18][20]. National Social Security Fund - The National Social Security Fund has a diversified investment strategy, with 88.5% of investments in domestic markets and 11.5% in overseas markets, focusing on risk diversification [1][26]. - The fund's investment model combines direct and entrusted investments, with nearly 70% of its assets managed through entrusted investments [1][42]. Enterprise and Occupational Annuities - The enterprise annuity fund has a conservative investment style, with a total fund size of 3.61 trillion yuan and an annualized return of 6.17% [1][50]. - The occupational annuity fund has a size of 3.11 trillion yuan, with an annualized return of 4.42% [1][50]. Individual Pensions - Individual pensions are still developing, with a total of 1,026 products available, primarily consisting of low-risk bank wealth management and fund products [1][47].

Group 1: PCB Industry Insights - The rapid development of AI technology is driving the upgrade of CCL/PCB products towards high-end specifications, significantly increasing their value [3][7][8] - The demand for AI is expected to maintain a high growth trend, with domestic companies gradually becoming important suppliers in the high-end market due to long-term strategic positioning [3][7] - The PCB industry is projected to see continuous profit growth as high-value products like AI PCBs experience sustained demand, with recommended companies including Nan Ya Plastics, Shenghong Technology, and others [3][7][8] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - National real estate investment and sales showed overall stability in May, with investment amounting to 3.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% [4][10][12] - The sales area of new commercial housing in May was 70.53 million square meters, down 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in market activity [10][12] - The report suggests a focus on companies with lighter historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments, as well as those in the valuation recovery phase like New Town Holdings [4][10][12] Group 3: Food and Beverage Sector - The liquor sector is undergoing adjustments, with the liquor index dropping by 5.31% recently, and expectations for improvement in the future [4][13] - The report highlights three main lines of focus: high-end liquor with relatively strong demand, mid-range liquor with ongoing national expansion, and real estate liquor products [4][13][14] - In the broader consumer goods market, structural prosperity is emerging, with new consumption categories driven by emotional value and health needs gaining traction [14]

食品饮料周报 白酒持续调整，关注高景气大众 品 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年6月16日 食品饮料周报-观点 白酒行业 食品行业 风险提示：1）宏观经济疲软的风险；2）行业竞争加剧风险；3）重大食品安全事件的风险。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-5.31%。涨跌幅前三的个股为：金种子酒（-1.28%）、顺鑫农业（-1.60%）、伊力特（- 2.09%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为金徽酒（-8.33%）、今世缘（-8.80%）、古井贡酒（-9.78%）。 观点：白酒持续调整，期待后续改善。白酒板块持续调整，上周白酒指数下跌5.31%。据今日 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of ETF products has been good in the past two weeks, with the largest increase in the ChiNext ETF and the pharmaceutical industry ETF [2][8] - Major broad-based ETFs experienced net outflows, with the speed of outflows from the CSI 300 and A-series accelerating compared to the previous two weeks [2][8] - New ETFs established in the past two weeks totaled 9, with a combined issuance of 2.936 billion shares, all being stock ETFs [2][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the domestic equity market has shown resilience, with average daily trading volume rising to 1.3 trillion yuan, and the ChiNext index performing well [3][12] - The U.S. CPI data showed moderate inflation, leading to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of the year [3][12] - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: high-end manufacturing and domestic technology growth, as well as quality consumer assets benefiting from domestic demand expansion policies [3][14] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury repurchase market is crucial for providing financing and liquidity for U.S. Treasuries, and it is also a market for implementing Federal Reserve monetary policy tools [4][15] - The report outlines the main participants in the repurchase market, with money market funds being the largest lenders and hedge funds as the primary borrowers [4][15] - Recent indicators suggest that the repurchase market is functioning well, with no significant funding pressure observed, although hedge fund leverage is at a high level [4][16] Group 4 - The financial data for May 2025 shows that the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations, with government bonds and corporate bonds contributing significantly [22][30] - The report highlights that the new policy financial tools are expected to support technology innovation and may prioritize support for listed private enterprises [27][28] - The ongoing reforms in Shenzhen are expected to enhance the integration of financial, technological, and data resources to empower the real economy [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of conflicts related to nuclear issues between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude futures rising by 13.81% and Brent oil futures increasing by 12.80% from June 6 to June 13, 2025 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, have contributed to market volatility and concerns over oil supply [6]. - The report highlights that while there are short-term price increases due to geopolitical risks, there are long-term concerns regarding oversupply in the oil market [7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report notes that the geopolitical situation has led to a rise in oil prices, with specific data indicating a 13.81% increase in WTI and a 12.80% increase in Brent prices during the specified period [6]. - The U.S. has seen a notable increase in gasoline and jet fuel demand as the summer travel season approaches, despite a current oversupply in gasoline and distillate inventories [6]. - OPEC's production increase in May was below expectations, alleviating some concerns about oversupply in the short term [6]. Fluorochemical - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is expected to boost demand for air conditioning, with production of household air conditioners projected to increase by 29.3% and 22.8% year-on-year in June and July 2025, respectively [6]. - Prices for refrigerants such as R32 and R134a remain high due to strong demand and supply constraints [6]. - The report suggests that the supply of second-generation refrigerants will continue to decrease, while the production of third-generation refrigerants is limited, supporting price stability [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market conditions, suggesting a potential rebound in the industry index [7]. - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in semiconductor materials as the market shows signs of recovery [7].

其 他 报 告 2025年06月13日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3403 | 0.01 | 1.13 | | 深证成份指数 | 10234 | -0.11 | 1.42 | | 沪深300指数 | 3892 | -0.06 | 0.88 | | 创业板指数 | 2067 | 0.26 | 2.32 | | 上证国债指数 | 225 | 0.00 | 0.08 | | 上证基金指数 | 6920 | 0.00 | 0.17 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | 今日重点推荐： 【平安证券】行业深度报告*电子*AI系列专题报告（一）算力：算 力基建景气度高，国产AI芯片发展势头良好*强于大市20250612 研究分析师 : 闫磊 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060517070006 研究分析师 : 陈福栋 投资咨询资格编号 : S1060524100001 核心观点 : 投资建议：DeepSeek火爆出圈，轻量化、低成本、高性能，推理场景 逐渐打开，推理端 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report aims to introduce the process of US Treasury bond auctions, participants, and observation indicators for the primary market liquidity of US Treasury bonds [3][4] Group 2: US Treasury Bond Auction Process - The US Treasury releases financing plans for the current and next quarters and auction sizes for the next three months around the end of January, April, July, and October each year [3][5] - The Treasury announces specific auction dates, terms, and amounts one day to one week in advance [3][5] - After the auction announcement, investors start pre - trading in the When - Issued market, which helps with price discovery and bond distribution [5] - On the auction day, investors can bid electronically through Treasury Direct or TAAPS systems, with competitive and non - competitive bids available [5] Group 3: Participants in the US Treasury Bond Primary Market - Participants include institutional and individual investors, divided into competitive (including direct and indirect bidders) and non - competitive bidders [3][7] - Direct bidders are institutions or individuals submitting bids directly, such as primary dealers, investment funds, and insurance companies [3][7] - Indirect bidders bid through direct bidders, including FIMA through the New York Fed [7] - Non - competitive bidders are mainly small investors and FIMA, with certain bid amount limits [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's SOMA reinvests in maturing US Treasury bonds through non - competitive bids at auctions, and its roll - over amount is not included in the announced auction amount [3][7] Group 4: US Treasury Bond Auction Categories and Frequencies - For 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y Treasury bonds, the Treasury issues them monthly; 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y bonds are issued quarterly; and Treasury bills with maturities less than 1Y are issued weekly [10] - Cash management bills are issued irregularly to meet the Treasury's temporary funding needs [10] - After the initial issuance, most bonds are reopened within the next two months to increase the bond's outstanding amount and liquidity [10][11] Group 5: Observation Indicators for US Treasury Bond Auction Demand - The bid - to - cover ratio, a higher ratio indicates strong investor demand, and it can be compared with the results of the last six auctions [13] - A high proportion of primary dealer allocations means insufficient demand from other investors, and their allocation share in Treasury auctions has been decreasing [15] - If the high yield is higher than the When - Issued yield (Tail), it shows insufficient auction demand; otherwise (Stop Through), it represents strong demand [17] - The indirect investor allocation ratio can reflect overseas investors' demand to some extent, and the Treasury publishes detailed investor category allocation information twice a month [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of private car manufacturers, emphasizing their strong profitability and the acceleration of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) by 2025. Key players like BYD and Geely are expected to lead in this area [3][13] - The report notes that new energy vehicle (NEV) sales are projected to remain robust, particularly in the second half of 2025, driven by favorable policies and tax exemptions [12][10] - State-owned enterprises are facing profitability challenges but are actively collaborating with Huawei to transform their business models towards electrification and smart technologies [4][16] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Automotive Industry - The automotive sales in China surpassed 30 million units in 2023, with exports being a significant growth driver. Domestic sales have not yet returned to 2017 levels [6][7] - Policies such as the vehicle replacement program are expected to stimulate demand, potentially adding 3.5 million units in 2025 [11][10] 2. Major Private Car Manufacturers - Private manufacturers are showing strong operational resilience, with profitability driven by high-end strategies, exports, and NEV scale effects. BYD's net profit for 2024 is projected at 37 billion yuan, a 29.9% increase year-on-year [14][15] - The report indicates that private manufacturers are leading the penetration of ADAS in the market, with significant advancements expected by 2025 [24][25] 3. Major New Forces in Automotive - New entrants are under pressure to achieve self-sustainability, with a focus on new product launches to validate growth potential. Companies like Li Auto and Xpeng are expected to introduce new models in 2025 [32][40] - The report notes that while losses are narrowing for these companies, the urgency to establish self-funding capabilities is increasing due to changes in the financing environment [37][39] 4. Major State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises are experiencing weaker profitability due to various factors, including declining investment returns from joint ventures and challenges in achieving scale in NEVs [16][4] - Collaborations with Huawei are being intensified to facilitate the transition towards smart and electric vehicles [4][16] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in private manufacturers like Seres, BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Geely due to their strong profitability and market positioning. It also suggests monitoring new entrants like Li Auto, Xpeng, and Xiaomi for their growth potential [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [83]. Core Insights - The supply of silver is gradually becoming rigid, with a downward trend in total supply from 2016 to 2024, showing a CAGR of -0.5%. The average cash cost of silver production is expected to rise, with a CAGR of 14.6% from 2018 to 2024 [2][9][21]. - Industrial demand for silver is expected to continue growing, with a projected increase of 3.6% in 2024. The photovoltaic sector is identified as the primary growth driver for industrial demand [2][34][38]. - The price of silver is anticipated to rise due to its industrial properties, with a gradual convergence of the gold-silver ratio expected as economic conditions improve [2][71][73]. Supply Summary - The global silver supply is projected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, reflecting a 1.7% increase year-on-year. The supply structure indicates that mined silver accounts for 80.8% of total supply, with by-product mining contributing significantly [9][15][48]. - The average cash cost of silver production is expected to reach $7.64 per ounce in 2024, with total production costs also on the rise [21][25]. Demand Summary - Industrial demand for silver is projected to account for about 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant contributions from the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to see a 2.6% increase in demand [34][38]. - Jewelry demand is expected to remain stable, with a projected increase of 2.8% in 2024, particularly driven by demand from South Asia [42][46]. Price Summary - The silver price is expected to gradually increase, supported by the industrial demand and a favorable monetary environment. The current high gold-silver ratio is likely to trend downwards as silver prices rise [71][73]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated rise in silver prices and demand [80].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the trend of high dividend investments in the banking sector, driven by low interest rates and a strong demand for asset allocation from insurance funds [5][26]. - It emphasizes the stability of dividends and the attractiveness of the banking sector for long-term capital inflows, particularly from insurance companies [26][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Insurance Capital Investment in Banking Stocks - Historical trends show three waves of insurance capital investment in banking stocks in 2015, 2020, and 2024, driven by low interest rates, high premium growth, accounting changes, and regulatory guidance [8][12]. - Since 2020, insurance capital has shown a more moderate approach to equity stakes in banks, focusing on stabilizing earnings and securing dividends [5][8]. 2. Future Outlook - The banking sector's high dividend yield is appealing, with a static dividend yield ranking third among all industries as of 2024 [26][28]. - The collaboration between banking and insurance channels is significant, with insurance premium income from bank channels reaching 36.7% in 2023, enhancing the sales of insurance products [26][31]. 3. Stock Selection Strategy - Key factors for stock selection include dividend yield, transaction costs, and fundamental performance, with a focus on stable dividend rates and robust financial metrics [5][27]. - The report suggests that state-owned banks and certain regional banks are likely to be prioritized by insurance capital due to their stable dividend profiles [5][26]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a "pro-cyclical and high dividend" investment strategy, highlighting the potential for insurance capital to become a new source of incremental investment in the banking sector [5][26]. - Specific banks are identified for investment based on their strong fundamentals and expected recovery in performance, particularly in the context of policy support [5][26].