Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [12]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the equity market is generally rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index increasing by 0.43% and 0.48% respectively, while the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.31% [4]. - The report highlights significant individual stock performances within the real estate sector, with top gainers including Xinda Zheng (10.02%), Nandu Property (9.98%), and Wantong Development (6.63%) [5]. - The report notes that Wuhan is set to auction six land parcels with a total starting price of 1.908 billion yuan, indicating ongoing land supply activities [6]. - The report mentions that the Shanghai Nanxiang CR Land Colorful City project is expected to be sold for approximately 300 to 400 million yuan, reflecting market activity in commercial real estate [7]. - The report states that in 2024, over 1.3 trillion yuan in housing provident fund loans were issued, indicating robust lending activity in the housing sector [7]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - As of June 3, 2025, the equity market shows a positive trend with most sectors rising, while the real estate index has seen a slight decline [4]. Individual Stock Performance - The top five gainers in the real estate sector are Xinda Zheng (10.02%), Nandu Property (9.98%), Wantong Development (6.63%), Haitai Development (4.23%), and Quzhou Development (3.50%) [5]. - The largest decliners include Nanguo Real Estate (-4.48%), Rongfeng Holdings (-4.28%), Jindi Group (-3.64%), China Merchants Jinling (-3.56%), and Binjiang Group (-3.20%) [5]. Industry News - Wuhan is set to auction six land parcels with a total area of 212,000 square meters and a total starting price of 1.908 billion yuan [6]. - The Shanghai Nanxiang CR Land Colorful City project is expected to be sold for 300 to 400 million yuan [7]. - In 2024, the total amount of housing provident fund loans issued was over 1.3 trillion yuan, with 36,317.83 billion yuan in contributions [7].

宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/6/3 5月PMI数据点评—— 供需修复，经济回稳 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、制造业PMI温和改善 2、非制造业延续平稳扩张态势 ➢ 中国5月官方制造业PMI49.5，预期49.5，前值49.0。 1、制造业PMI温和改善 ➢制造业PMI边际小幅修复。5月制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，符合市场预 期，表现好于季节性。经济有所回稳，如期实现温和修复，这一方面得益于国内积极政策的加紧实 施，另一方面也与5月中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成协议、关税冲击有所缓和有关。 ➢多数分项较前值有所反弹。从主要分项指数的边际变化来看，本月除产成品库存指数、购进价格指 数、出厂价格指数和供应商配送时间指数较前值下降外，其余分项（生产指数、新订单指数、新出 口订单指数、积压订单指数、采购量指数、进口指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数和生产经营 活动预期指数）均出现不同程度的上行，上升幅度在0.2 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is expected to benefit from the inflow of risk-averse funds, with long-term interest rates slightly rising and short-term rates slightly falling [4][20][10] - The A-share market is experiencing a cautious upward trend, with the volatility of major indices at historical lows, suggesting that investors should be wary of potential increases in volatility [25][11] - The report highlights that the U.S. stock market is likely to continue its consolidation phase, with a focus on potential buying opportunities following a recession narrative [32][12] Group 2 - The report notes that the onshore RMB has depreciated against the USD, but is expected to appreciate towards 7.1, influenced by positive developments in China-US trade relations [6][37] - The commodity market is currently in a bearish trend, with the Wenhua Commodity Index hitting a new low, and investors are advised to adopt a cautious stance [40][41] - Key domestic policies include a call to resist "price war" competition in the automotive sector and a decline in the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, indicating economic contraction [46][7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is designed to monitor the crowding levels of Shenwan First-Level Industry Indices on a daily basis, identifying industries with high or low crowding levels and significant changes in crowding over time[4]. - **Model Construction Process**: The model calculates crowding levels for each industry index daily, based on metrics such as main fund inflows and outflows. It identifies industries with the highest and lowest crowding levels and tracks significant changes in crowding over recent trading days[4]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights into industry crowding dynamics, helping to identify potential investment opportunities or risks[4]. 2. Model Name: Premium Rate Z-Score Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model is used to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities by calculating the Z-score of premium rates over a rolling window[5]. - **Model Construction Process**: The model involves the following steps: 1. Calculate the premium rate of an ETF as the percentage difference between its market price and net asset value (NAV). 2. Compute the Z-score of the premium rate over a rolling window to standardize the deviation. 3. Identify ETFs with extreme Z-scores as potential arbitrage opportunities[5]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively highlights ETFs with significant deviations from their NAV, which may indicate arbitrage opportunities or risks of price corrections[5]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Crowding Monitoring Model - No specific numerical backtesting results were provided for this model[4]. 2. Premium Rate Z-Score Model - No specific numerical backtesting results were provided for this model[5]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were explicitly mentioned in the report. --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific quantitative factor backtesting results were provided in the report.

Group 1 - The report indicates a market differentiation with micro-cap stocks outperforming, while the ChiNext index and cyclical stocks lag behind [3][10] - The valuation of broad market indices shows divergence, with micro-cap stocks, the CSI 2000, and stable stocks performing the best, while the ChiNext index, cyclical stocks, and the CSI 300 performed the weakest [3][10] - The report highlights that the industries with relatively cheap valuations include food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and public utilities [39][28] Group 2 - The report notes that the pharmaceutical, environmental protection, and national defense industries had the highest gains last week, while the automotive, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors performed the weakest [12][35] - Relative valuations show a decline in the ChiNext index compared to the CSI 300 in terms of PE and PB ratios [17][26] - The report states that the overall valuation of major indices is above the 50% historical percentile, with the ChiNext index at a low valuation compared to the past year [26][28] Group 3 - The report identifies that the current valuation of major industries is mixed, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, electronics, agriculture, and home appliances at near one-year lows [35][39] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation levels of materials, equipment manufacturing, industrial services, transportation, consumption, and technology are all below the 50% historical percentile [28][39] - The report highlights that the current valuation of the environmental protection sector is at a high historical percentile, indicating strong performance expectations [39][50] Group 4 - The report mentions that the earnings expectations across various industries are nearly flat, with the largest upward adjustment in the environmental sector and the largest downward adjustment in electric equipment [50][50] - The report indicates that popular concepts such as cultivated diamonds, third-generation semiconductors, 6G, and robotics are at historically high valuation percentiles over the past three years [47][48]

Group 1 - The market experienced a net inflow of funds, but trading activity decreased, with total A-share turnover at 54.695 trillion yuan, down from the previous week, and turnover rate at 6.49%, also a decline [9][10] - The net inflow of funds totaled 13.398 billion yuan, indicating a strengthening liquidity [9][10] - The IPO financing scale was 604 million yuan, while refinancing was 297 million yuan, reflecting a decrease in both activities [9][10][36] Group 2 - The net cash injection in the domestic market was 656.6 billion yuan, with the DR007 and R007 rates rising, leading to a narrowing of the interest rate spread [11][12] - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 4 basis points, while the yield on 1-year bonds increased by 2 basis points, resulting in a reduced yield spread [11][12] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates in June rose to 94.4% [11][19] Group 3 - The trading structure showed a decrease in turnover rates across major indices, with a simultaneous decline in transaction volumes [20][22] - The issuance scale of equity funds was 9.226 billion yuan, which was lower than the previous week [22] - The net inflow of ETF shares increased by 5.46 billion shares, with the largest inflow seen in the CSI 500 ETF [28][30] Group 4 - The top five sectors for increased positions in equity funds were pharmaceuticals (+0.59%), computers (+0.25%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.11%), media (+0.11%), and real estate (+0.10%) [23][24] - The sectors with the largest reductions in positions included electric power equipment (-0.35%), automobiles (-0.31%), food and beverage (-0.18%), non-ferrous metals (-0.18%), and household appliances (-0.10%) [23][24] - The total amount of restricted shares released was 12.002 billion yuan, with electronics, computers, and communications being the top three sectors [40][41]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [8] Core Insights - Dr. Reddy's Laboratories reported a Q4 revenue of 85.06 billion INR, a 20% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 15.94 billion INR, up 22% year-on-year [3][4] - The rapid growth in revenue and profit is driven by the integration of the NRT business, new product approvals, and stable growth in core businesses (generic drugs and PSAI) [4] - The gross margin decreased by 3.0 percentage points to 55.6%, primarily due to price declines in some generic products and one-time costs from the divestiture of the Shire facility [4] Revenue Breakdown - Global generic drug sales reached 75.37 billion INR, a 23% increase year-on-year, accounting for 89% of total revenue [5] - North America contributed 35.59 billion INR, up 9% year-on-year, while Europe saw a significant increase of 145% to 12.75 billion INR, largely due to NRT integration and new product launches [5] - The company expects double-digit revenue growth for FY 2026, with an EBITDA margin maintained at 25% [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the refrigerant sector, recommending attention to companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. due to expected demand growth and price increases in refrigerants [5]. Core Insights - The refrigerant market is entering a demand peak season, with prices and margins for major refrigerant types on the rise. The report highlights the impact of high summer temperatures and supply constraints due to quota policies [5][25]. - The explosion at Youdao Chemical has raised concerns in the pesticide industry, potentially affecting supply and prices of intermediates like K amine, while stricter regulations may benefit leading companies with better safety and management practices [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Notable price increases were observed in formic acid (6.52%), dichloromethane (4.36%), and acrylamide (4.55%), while TMA and dichloromethane saw significant declines [13][18]. 2. Polyurethane - MDI prices decreased while TDI prices increased due to seasonal demand fluctuations and maintenance schedules at several production facilities [16]. 3. Agricultural Chemicals - Glyphosate prices rose slightly to 23,397 CNY/ton, supported by strong demand and reduced supply from some factories [18]. 4. Fluorinated Chemicals - Prices for third-generation refrigerants R32 and R134a increased, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints. R32 is priced at 51,000 CNY/ton, and R134a at 48,500 CNY/ton [25][32]. 5. Phosphate Fertilizers - Prices for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate remained stable, with production pressures and inventory levels being closely monitored [20][21]. 6. Urea and Potassium Chloride - Urea prices decreased to 1,863 CNY/ton due to market adjustments and reduced export volumes, while potassium chloride prices remained stable at 2,956 CNY/ton [21][24].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the refrigerant sector, recommending attention to companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. due to expected demand growth and price increases in refrigerants [5]. Core Insights - The refrigerant market is entering a demand peak season, with prices and margins for major refrigerant types on the rise. The report highlights the impact of high summer temperatures and supply constraints due to quota policies [5][25]. - The explosion at Youdao Chemical has raised concerns in the pesticide industry, potentially affecting supply and prices of intermediates like K-amine, while stricter regulations may benefit leading companies with better safety and management practices [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Notable price increases were observed in formic acid (6.52%), dichloromethane (4.36%), and acrylamide (4.55%), while TMA saw a significant decrease of 14.29% [13]. 2. Polyurethane - MDI prices decreased while TDI prices increased due to seasonal demand fluctuations and maintenance schedules at several production facilities [16]. 3. Agricultural Chemicals - Glyphosate prices rose slightly to 23,397 CNY/ton, supported by strong demand and reduced supply from some factories [18]. 4. Fluorinated Chemicals - Prices for R32 and R134a refrigerants increased, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints. R32 is priced at 51,000 CNY/ton, and R134a at 48,500 CNY/ton [25][32]. 5. Phosphate Fertilizers - Prices for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate remained stable, with production pressures from high raw material costs [20][21]. 6. Urea and Potassium Chloride - Urea prices decreased to 1,863 CNY/ton due to changes in export policies and market dynamics, while potassium chloride prices remained stable at 2,956 CNY/ton [24].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the sub-industries within the power equipment and new energy sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The overall strategy for the industry emphasizes the AI upgrade of electric vehicles and the establishment of a solid foundation for photovoltaics, with new energy and AI being the primary focus [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain - The electric vehicle sector is undergoing a transformation characterized by electrification, intelligence, and AI integration, benefiting companies like Xiaomi and XPeng. Xiaomi's YU7 model boasts a maximum range of 835 km, with a net profit of 10.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.5%. The revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI-related innovations reached 18.6 billion yuan [4]. - Battery companies are continuously upgrading, with a focus on ecosystem development and solid-state technology, benefiting firms like CATL. Recently, CATL signed an agreement with the Lanzhou government to collaborate on new energy battery markets and zero-carbon city initiatives [4]. Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Chain - The energy storage market is accelerating, with leading companies like Haibo Si Chuang benefiting from rapid development. From January to April 2025, the new energy storage bidding market in China saw a significant increase, with a scale of 27.1 GW/132.3 GWh, a year-on-year surge of 281% [5]. - It is currently viewed as an opportune time to invest in leading photovoltaic companies, as Aisui Co. reported a significant sales premium for its ABC components, with a shipment volume of 4.54 GW in Q1, reflecting a more than 40% quarter-on-quarter growth [5]. AI and New Energy, Wind Power Industry Chain - The integration of new energy with humanoid robotics presents new opportunities. The CEO of OpenAI has indicated that humanoid robots are on the horizon, which could significantly alter human perspectives and work-life patterns [6]. - The first batch of solid-state batteries for construction robots has been successfully mass-produced and delivered, marking a significant advancement in the application of solid-state technology [6]. Industry News Tracking - The report highlights that the new energy and AI sectors are experiencing a transformative phase, with significant implications for technology upgrades and market competition dynamics [22]. - The photovoltaic market is expected to stabilize, with recent data indicating that the new installed capacity for solar power reached 104.93 GW in the first four months of 2025, with April alone contributing 45.22 GW, the highest monthly figure in history [21].