Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry reported a total profit of 115 billion yuan in the first four months, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The overall profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China for January to April was 21,170.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [1][13] - The TDI market continues to rise, supported by cost increases, while the demand remains stable but cautious due to existing inventory levels [3] - The price of paraquat has increased by 4.35% to an average of 12,000 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and steady demand [3] Summary by Sections 1. Key News Tracking - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry had a total operating revenue of 29,439.3 billion yuan in the first four months [1] - The mining industry saw a profit decrease of 26.8%, while the manufacturing sector experienced an 8.6% profit increase [1][13] 2. Key Product Price Tracking - TDI and acetic acid prices rose by 2.9% and 1.3% respectively, while other products like rubber and PVC saw price declines [2] - The top five chemical products with price increases included cryolite (+9.1%), ethylene tar (+9.1%), and sulfur (+8.6%) [2] 3. Chemical Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector fell by 0.28%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.8 percentage points [4][16] - Notable sub-industry gains included pesticides (+5.35%) and adhesives (+3.35%) [19] 4. Focused Sub-industry Insights - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply logic, such as refrigerants and phosphates, while also highlighting sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics like organic silicon [5] - Recommended companies include Juhua Co., Yuntianhua, and Wanhu Chemical for their respective sectors [5] 5. Price and Spread Monitoring - Among 345 tracked chemical products, 39 saw price increases, while 119 experienced declines [27] - The basic chemical sector's PB ratio is 1.95, compared to the overall A-share PB of 1.45 [25]

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Market Overview - The report highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies, with a recent increase in steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% and a temporary suspension of a previous court ruling against these tariffs, leading to increased uncertainty in trade negotiations [1][16] - In the A-share market, major indices rebounded significantly in May, with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 2.32% and 2.94% respectively, driven by a series of stabilizing measures [1][18] - The report notes that the central bank injected 599.8 billion yuan into the market in May, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance amid concerns over liquidity due to accelerated government bond issuance [1][18] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market is experiencing a volatile environment, with a balanced tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and the potential for trading opportunities arising from adjustments in interest rates [3] - Economic data indicates a mismatch in expectations, particularly with external demand showing resilience but not fully compensating for insufficient domestic demand recovery [3] - The central bank's recent actions, including rate cuts, suggest limited room for further easing in the short term, with market dynamics heavily influenced by the ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations and economic fundamentals [3] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - EHang Intelligent (EH) - EHang reported a revenue of 26.1 million yuan in Q1 2025, down from 61.7 million yuan in the same period last year, with a gross margin of 62.4% [8][21] - The company has received operational certification for its EH216-S model, allowing it to expand its commercial operations gradually, including transitioning from isolated airspace to integrated airspace [8][21] - EHang plans to double its production capacity at its Yunfu facility to 1,000 units by the end of 2025, supported by strategic partnerships for a new eVTOL production base [8][22] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Bluko Group - Bluko Group, a leading domestic model toy company, achieved a GMV of 1.8 billion yuan in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of over 170% [4][24] - The company is recognized for its high cost-performance ratio and strong IP recognition, with a projected sales volume of 135 million units for its building block toys in 2024 [6][25] - Bluko's integrated design, production, and R&D system, along with its collaboration with leading third-party manufacturers, has resulted in a gross margin of 52.6% and a high precision in mold production [6][25] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - Pinduoduo (PDD) - Pinduoduo reported a 10% year-on-year increase in revenue to 95.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, but its adjusted net profit decreased by 45% to 16.9 billion yuan [9][12] - The company faces intense competition and has increased investments, which may pressure profit margins, necessitating further subsidies to maintain price advantages [9][12] - Despite short-term challenges, Pinduoduo is expected to maintain long-term competitiveness, particularly with its TEMU platform's growth potential in the global e-commerce market [9][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the bond market showed a narrow - range fluctuation with a differentiated market, including the differentiation between short - and long - term interest rates and that between interest rates and credit. In June, the bond market will continue the "oscillation" trend. The economic fundamentals are recovering in waves, and the loose capital situation supports the market, capping the interest rate increase. However, the phenomenon of certificate of deposit (CD) price hikes restricts the downward space of interest rates. The risk of a significant upward movement in the bond market is relatively controllable, and the trading opportunities brought by adjustments need to consider breaking through the downward space, mainly affected by CD price hikes and monetary policy trends [2][3]. - There are expected differences in economic data. Exports are more resilient than expected under tariff shocks, while the real estate market remains weak on both supply and demand sides despite policy support. The main economic contradiction is that external demand, although resilient, cannot fully offset the insufficient recovery of domestic demand. If domestic demand recovery is still weak or exports decline significantly due to tariff games, new counter - cyclical policies may be introduced [4]. - The central bank's moderately loose monetary policy stance remains unchanged. Considering that recent reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have been implemented, the probability of further loosening in the short term is relatively low. If the central bank further loosens its policy, it may catalyze the decline of long - term interest rates. It is worth noting whether the Lujiazui Forum in June will release important signals or introduce incremental policies. In June, the capital market is expected to experience greater fluctuations, and the capital interest rate center may rise compared to May, but the probability of a significant upward movement is low [4][70]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. 5 - month Bond Market: Low Volatility and Differentiated Market - **Differentiated Performance**: There was a differentiation between short - and long - term interest rates, with short - term interest rates declining slightly and long - term interest rates rising. The 10 - year Treasury yield exceeded 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield exceeded 1.9%. There was also a differentiation between interest rates and credit. Interest - rate bonds were weakly oscillating, while credit bonds were strong, narrowing the credit spread [2][12]. - **Driving Factors**: In early May, the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts drove the short - term varieties, but the subsequent CD price hikes constrained the market. In mid - May, the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations improved economic growth expectations, and the expected increase in the supply of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds put pressure on long - and ultra - long - term interest rates [12]. - **Performance of Different Bond Types**: - **Interest - rate Bonds**: From May 6th to May 30th, the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1BP to 1.46%, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year Treasury yields increased by 4BP, 4BP, 7BP, and 7BP respectively [13]. - **Credit Bonds**: From May 6th to May 30th, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year medium - term notes (AAA) decreased by 8BP, 7BP, and 6BP respectively, and the credit spreads further narrowed [18]. - **Certificates of Deposit**: From May 6th to May 30th, the yields of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year CDs (AAA) decreased by 11BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively. The CD interest rate first decreased and then increased in May [23]. - **Capital Situation in May**: The capital situation was balanced and loose, with the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and continued over - renewal of MLF. The central bank's net MLF investment in May was 37.5 billion yuan. The credit investment in May was still weak, and the government bond issuance accelerated, but the overall supply pressure was controllable [27][38][41]. 2. How to Break the Oscillation of the Bond Market in June? 2.1 How Did the Bond Market Perform in June Historically? - **Central Bank Operations and Capital Situation**: In June, reverse repurchases were mostly net investments, and MLF was mostly renewed in full or in excess. The capital situation in June was generally stable and balanced, with the central bank increasing monetary investment to maintain liquidity stability and fiscal expenditures supplementing liquidity. The capital interest rate center tended to rise at the end of the month [45]. - **Bond Market Performance**: Historically, bond yields in June mostly showed a downward trend. In 2020 - 2022, bond interest rates rebounded due to economic improvement, monetary policy adjustments, and increased bond supply [54]. 2.2 What Else to Watch in the June Bond Market? - **Expected Differences in Economic Data**: - **Exports**: In April 2025, exports were more resilient than expected under tariff shocks. The acceleration of entrepot trade and the resilience of exports to the US were the driving factors [59]. - **Real Estate**: Despite policy support, the real estate market remained weak on both supply and demand sides. From January to April 2025, real estate development investment decreased year - on - year, and the real estate market showed a weak recovery pattern of "stable volume and falling prices" [61]. - **Central Bank's Attitude and Capital Situation**: - **Central Bank's Attitude**: The central bank's moderately loose monetary policy stance remains unchanged. The probability of further loosening in the short term is relatively low. If the central bank further loosens its policy, it may catalyze the decline of long - term interest rates. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the central bank restarting Treasury bond purchases unexpectedly and the signals from the Lujiazui Forum [67][68]. - **Capital Situation**: In June, the capital situation is expected to fluctuate more, and the capital interest rate center may rise compared to May. However, due to fiscal expenditure supplementation and the central bank's possible increased investment to stabilize the capital situation, the probability of a significant upward movement in interest rates is low. The supply pressure of government bonds, large - scale credit investment, peak CD maturities, and quarter - end capital repatriation will affect the capital situation [70].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 increased by 10% year-on-year to 95.7 billion yuan, with marketing service revenue growing by 15% to 48.7 billion yuan and transaction service revenue increasing by 6% to 47 billion yuan. The revenue growth was impacted by intensified competition and external uncertainties, while net profit decreased by 45% year-on-year to 16.9 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 18% [1][2]. - The company is facing challenges due to increased competition and its decision to invest more in merchant support and platform ecosystem development, which has led to a significant rise in sales expenses by 43% year-on-year to 33.4 billion yuan. This may pressure the adjusted net profit in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strengthened supply chain support for new merchants [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been revised down to 440.2 billion yuan, 505.6 billion yuan, and 577.4 billion yuan respectively, from previous estimates of 470.2 billion yuan, 547.8 billion yuan, and 625 billion yuan. The projected Non-GAAP net profits for the same years are now expected to be 104.8 billion yuan, 132.7 billion yuan, and 155.5 billion yuan, down from earlier forecasts of 138 billion yuan, 169.8 billion yuan, and 196.9 billion yuan. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 10X, 8X, and 6X [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [5]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a 10% year-on-year revenue growth to 95.7 billion yuan, with marketing services revenue increasing by 15% to 48.7 billion yuan and transaction services revenue growing by 6% to 47.0 billion yuan. The revenue growth slowdown is attributed to intensified competition and external uncertainties, while adjusted net profit decreased by 45% to 16.9 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 18% [1][2]. - The company is facing challenges due to increased competition and its decision to enhance investments in merchant support and platform ecosystem development, leading to a 43% increase in sales expenses to 33.4 billion yuan. This may pressure short-term profitability, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strengthened supply chain support for new merchants [2][3]. - The company's overseas market expansion, particularly the introduction of a semi-managed model in North America, is expected to impact transaction service revenue due to a decrease in overall monetization rates. The cancellation of the "small package tax exemption" policy in the U.S. may also increase merchant costs, potentially slowing growth in the North American market [3]. Summary by Sections - **Q1 2025 Performance**: Revenue increased by 10% to 95.7 billion yuan, with marketing services up 15% and transaction services up 6%. Adjusted net profit fell by 45% to 16.9 billion yuan [1]. - **Revenue and Profitability Challenges**: Revenue growth is slowing due to increased competition and the company's investment strategy, with sales expenses rising significantly. Short-term profitability may be under pressure, but long-term competitiveness is expected to improve [2]. - **Overseas Market Dynamics**: The introduction of a semi-managed model in North America may affect revenue, and regulatory changes could impact merchant costs and growth [3]. - **Revised Financial Projections**: The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 440.2 billion, 505.6 billion, and 577.4 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates revised to 104.8 billion, 132.7 billion, and 155.5 billion yuan [3].

Domestic Policy News - The General Secretary emphasized accelerating the construction of an education powerhouse, highlighting the importance of education for national strength and rejuvenation [9][10] - Premier Li Qiang attended the ASEAN-China-GCC summit, focusing on regional economic cooperation amidst global challenges [11][12] - The People's Bank of China introduced a new management method for cybersecurity incidents in its business areas [20] Equity Market Analysis - In May, the A-share market rebounded significantly, with the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 2.32% and 2.94% respectively, driven by a series of stabilizing measures [21][22] - The MSCI China A-share Index increased by 1.6% in May, reflecting positive market sentiment [21] - Southbound capital maintained a net inflow of 41.992 billion yuan in May, indicating strong investor interest [21] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank net injected 599.8 billion yuan in May, responding to liquidity pressures from accelerated government bond issuance [46][47] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated around 1.68%, reflecting stable market conditions despite external uncertainties [46] Commodity Market Analysis - The non-ferrous metals market showed signs of recovery, while crude oil prices rebounded from recent lows [23] - Agricultural products, particularly pork, continued to experience weak fluctuations, indicating ongoing market challenges [23] Policy Impact Analysis - The adjustment of the CSI 300 index sample reflects a shift towards emerging sectors, enhancing market representation [22] - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, indicating a need for further counter-cyclical policy measures to support economic stability [23][24]

证券研究报告 2025年06月04日 海外行业报告：行业研究简报 布鲁可集团 国产模型玩具龙头企业，盲盒积木人+万代国产替 代引领市场潜力释放 作者： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 分析师 孔蓉 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521020002 分析师 曹睿 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523020003 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 2 • 布鲁可集团是中国最大的拼搭角色类玩具企业。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，2023年公司实现GMV 18亿元，同比增长超 170%，是全球增速最快的规模化玩具企业。公司与超30个全球知名IP有合作关系，同时也拥有自创IP系列"百变布鲁 克"和"英雄无限"。 • "高性价比+高IP知名度"的品牌形象被消费者所熟知，2024年公司拼搭角色类玩具实现销量1.35亿件。1）高性价比： 公司产品矩阵丰富，产品定价布局完整。公司旗下产品组合可被划分为"拼搭角色类玩具"和"积木玩具"两种类型， 主流产品定价在19.9元至399元不等，热销大众产品价格在39元左右，平价产品则为19.9元。2）高IP知名度：公司拥有 超过30个自创IP资源及全球知名IP授权产品， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 26.1 million yuan in Q1 2025, down from 61.7 million yuan in the same period last year, with a gross margin of 62.4% compared to 61.9% year-on-year. The adjusted net loss was 31.1 million yuan, increasing from 10.1 million yuan year-on-year [1]. - The company has received the operational certificate (OC) for its EH216-S model, allowing for commercial flight services in designated areas. This certification is expected to accelerate the company's commercial operations and expand its market presence [2]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with plans to increase annual output to 1,000 units by the end of 2025, supported by the construction of a new production base in Yunfu and a strategic partnership in Hefei [4]. - The revenue guidance for 2025 is set at 900 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 97%, with expectations of continued growth in revenue for the years 2025 to 2027 [4]. Business Progress - The company has successfully obtained the first batch of operational certificates for its EH216-S from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), enabling commercial operations [2]. - The international market expansion includes successful test flights in Spain and Mexico, increasing the number of countries where the company operates to 19 [2]. Product Development - The new generation eVTOL, VT35, is currently undergoing airworthiness certification with the CAAC, and the prototype has completed manufacturing and is in the testing phase, with plans for release in Q3 2025 [3].

Group 1: AI Industry Insights - NVIDIA reported Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion, a 12% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 69% increase year-over-year, with a forecast of $45 billion for Q2 FY2026 [1] - The AI industry is expected to be a key investment theme in 2025, with both China and the US making significant progress in AI infrastructure and applications [1] - Long-term investment opportunities are suggested in "AI + overseas expansion + satellite" sectors, focusing on areas like optical modules, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power [1] Group 2: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.06% from May 26 to May 30, with soft drinks and low-alcohol segments performing well, increasing by 9.27% and 7.13% respectively [26][27] - Key recommendations include focusing on white liquor brands like Moutai and Fenjiu, and monitoring the performance of yellow wine during its data validation phase [26] - The upcoming 618 shopping festival and Q2-Q3 peak season are expected to boost sales in the soft drink and low-alcohol segments, with several companies benefiting from cost advantages [27][29] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 25.8 billion yuan over five trading days, with a total net inflow of 610.7 billion yuan year-to-date, representing 82% of the previous year's total [3] - The Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the "Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance," marking a significant step in financial innovation and stability [3] - Major internet companies are currently valued at relatively low PE ratios, with Meituan seeing significant accumulation of southbound funds [3] Group 4: Construction Materials - Cement clinker prices in the Yangtze River Delta region increased by 30 yuan per ton, with companies planning to implement staggered production from June to August [14] - The overall cement shipment rate was 48% in May, showing a year-on-year decline, but the recent price increase indicates a positive shift in market sentiment [14] - The report suggests that cement companies may see profit growth despite reduced volumes, with a focus on companies like China National Materials and West Cement [14] Group 5: Semiconductor Equipment - The company reported a 22% year-over-year increase in Q1 revenue to 1.48 billion yuan, with a significant rise in net profit [23] - The components business achieved a 70.45% revenue growth, driven by increased demand from the new energy sector [24] - The semiconductor segment is expected to contribute to future growth, with successful collaborations with major clients [25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set above the current price of 0.73 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next six months [6]. Core Viewpoints - The strategic investment by Xiangyuan Holdings into Haichang Ocean Park is seen as a significant move to enhance the company's position in the cultural tourism industry, marking a potential milestone in the sector's development by 2025 [1]. - The partnership is expected to create synergistic effects, combining Xiangyuan's stable operations with Haichang's innovative IP resources, leading to a greater overall value [4]. - The report highlights the potential for Haichang to improve its financial situation through the capital raised from the share issuance, which is expected to alleviate funding pressures and enhance operational efficiency [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - Haichang plans to issue 5.1 billion new shares at a price of 0.45 HKD per share, raising a total of 22.95 billion HKD, which represents 62.85% of the current issued share capital [1]. - The subscription price reflects a discount of 46.43% compared to the closing price on June 2, and a premium of 99.95% over the net asset value per share [1]. Company Strategy - Xiangyuan Holdings has established a presence in 14 provinces with over 40 cultural tourism projects, focusing on key tourist destination clusters [2]. - Haichang operates seven marine parks and is actively introducing international IPs like Ultraman and One Piece to enhance market engagement [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects a decline in profit forecasts due to the impact of the consumer environment, with expected net profits of 0.2 billion and 1.9 billion HKD for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is anticipated to be 1.66 billion HKD, indicating a decrease from the previous year [9]. Synergy and Growth Potential - The collaboration is expected to enrich the tourism resource landscape, creating a comprehensive "land-sea-air" tourism ecosystem [9]. - The integration of IP resources from both companies is anticipated to enhance the storytelling aspect of their offerings, facilitating a more immersive experience for visitors [9].