策略报告 | 投资策略专题 知往鉴今系列 证券研究报告 大类资产复盘笔记（202505） 大类资产回顾：全球股指普遍修复收涨 1）大类资产总览：5 月大类资产窄幅波动，A 股修复后震荡回落，中债回升， 商品冲高回落，全球股指普遍收涨。2）A 股：5 月主要宽基指数多数收涨， 风格方面金融、消费领涨，环保、医药生物行业领涨。5 月关税冲突暂缓， 板块加速轮动，"公募新规叙事"、创新药、新消费轮番走强。3）债券：5 月 长短端收益率分化，长端利率上行，短端利率下行，期限利差走阔，存单利 率与 10 年期国债利率倒挂一度被打破，但月末回归倒挂状态，信用利差震 荡回落。4）商品：5 月商品多数收涨，黄金冲高回落，原油走牛。5）海外 权益：全球股指普遍收涨，美股三大指数中纳指领涨，亚太股指多数大涨， 韩国综合指数、台湾加权指数、日经 225 指数、恒生指数涨超 5%。6）美债： 5 月美国 20 年期国债"发飞"，10 年期利率一度升至 4.5%以上，期限利差小 幅收窄，中美利差走阔。 A 股：降准降息落地，景气回升需继续验证 1）基本面：一季度数据开局良好，但 4 月基本面表现偏弱。2）宏观流动性： 社融继续回暖，5 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, targeting a price of 38.81 CNY based on a 2025 PE of 45X [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the generator set industry, capitalizing on opportunities arising from the growth of data centers and the overall demand for power equipment [2][3]. - The company has established a business structure centered around power equipment, with energy conservation and renewable energy as supplementary wings, indicating a diversified approach to market opportunities [1][11]. Summary by Sections Business Structure and Growth - The company focuses on power equipment as its core business while expanding into energy conservation and renewable energy sectors, achieving significant growth in revenue and profitability [1][13][15]. - The revenue from environmentally friendly low-noise diesel generator sets is projected to increase significantly, reflecting the company's strong market position and product demand [53][54]. Market Opportunities - The global power equipment market is expected to grow from approximately 500 billion USD in 2022 to over 700 billion USD by 2025, driven by increasing energy demands and technological advancements [10][32]. - In China, the power equipment market is projected to exceed 200 billion USD by 2025, supported by favorable policies and accelerated grid investments [35][38]. Data Center Growth - The rapid development of data centers is driving demand for high-power diesel generators, with the Chinese data center market expected to grow from 878 billion CNY in 2019 to 3048 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 28.3% [42][44]. - Major tech companies are significantly investing in AI data centers, further increasing the demand for reliable backup power solutions [43][44]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages its supply chain and brand advantages, including a strategic partnership with MTU, to enhance its market position and pricing power in the high-end diesel generator market [48][49]. - With over 20 years of manufacturing experience, the company has built a strong reputation and customer base, particularly in high-demand sectors such as telecommunications and data centers [50][51]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenues of 21.25 billion CNY, 27.73 billion CNY, and 35.73 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.76 billion CNY, 3.76 billion CNY, and 4.75 billion CNY, indicating substantial growth [4][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Viewpoints - The nuclear power sector is experiencing accelerated growth, with significant investment completion in the first four months of 2025 reaching 36.64% year-on-year [1][14] - The modular construction market for nuclear power is expected to expand significantly, with an estimated market size of approximately 86.4 billion yuan annually from 2025 to 2030 due to the introduction of third-generation nuclear technology [2][36] - The company is enhancing its modular production capacity through new investment projects, securing a competitive advantage in nuclear module orders [3][39] Summary by Sections Nuclear Power Market Outlook - The nuclear power investment completion in China reached 36.256 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, marking a 36.64% year-on-year increase [1] - As of April 27, 2025, there are 102 nuclear power units in operation, under construction, or approved for construction, with a total installed capacity of 113 million kilowatts [14] - The third-generation nuclear power units are expected to enter a peak construction phase, with a focus on modular design to significantly reduce construction time from 50 months to 36 months [2][24] Modular Construction Advantages - The modular construction approach allows for a more efficient building process, with the potential to reduce construction costs and improve safety and quality control [28][29] - The average construction cost for a typical dual-unit third-generation nuclear power project is around 40 billion yuan, with engineering costs accounting for approximately 60% of the total project cost [35] - The company has secured a contract for the construction of modules for the Ningde Phase II project, marking its first application of modular technology in a third-generation nuclear power plant [3][42] Company Growth and Financial Projections - The company is expanding its production capacity through a new investment project that will enhance its ability to manufacture and transport large modules [39][41] - Financial projections indicate a net profit attributable to the parent company of 229.17 million yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 20.44 [5][4] - The company has a strong background in modular construction, having served numerous international clients and accumulated extensive project experience [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Viewpoints - The nuclear power sector is experiencing accelerated growth, with significant investment completion in the first four months of 2025 reaching 36.64% year-on-year growth, indicating a new cycle of prosperity in nuclear power construction [1][14] - The modular construction market for nuclear power is expected to expand significantly, with an estimated market size of approximately 86.4 billion yuan annually from 2025 to 2030 due to the anticipated annual commencement of around six new nuclear units [2][36] - The company is enhancing its modular production capacity through new investment projects, securing a competitive advantage in nuclear module orders [3][39] Summary by Sections Nuclear Power Market Outlook - The nuclear power investment completion in China reached 36.256 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, with a cumulative increase of 36.64% year-on-year, and a total of 102 nuclear units in operation, under construction, or approved, with a total installed capacity of 113 million kilowatts [1][14] - The third-generation nuclear units, primarily using modular design, are expected to significantly reduce construction time from 50 months to 36 months, enhancing efficiency and safety [2][24][29] Modular Construction Capacity - The company is expanding its modular production capabilities through a new investment project, which will increase its manufacturing and transportation capacity for large modules, thereby improving production efficiency [3][39] - The company has secured a contract for the construction of modules for the Ningde Phase II project, marking its first application of modular technology in the "Hualong One" nuclear power plant [3][42] Financial Projections - The company's projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 229.17 million, 252.15 million, and 292.78 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.44, 18.58, and 16.00 [4][5]

公司报告 | 公司点评 真爱美家（003041） 证券研究报告 巩固一带一路客户优势 公司发布 24 年报和 25 年一季报 25Q1：营收 1.8 亿元，同比+13%；归母净利润 2.1 亿元，同比+689%；扣 非归母净利润 0.44 亿元，同比+155%；毛利率 20%，同比-4pct；净利率 115%， 同比+99pct。 24Q4：营收 2.6 亿元，同比+1%；归母净利润 0.2 亿元，同比-14%；扣非归 母净利润 0.2 亿元，同比+1806%；毛利率 19%，同比-1pct；净利率 8%， 同比-1pct。 24 年：营收 8.8 亿元，同比-8%；归母净利润 0.76 亿元，同比-28%；扣非 归母净利润 0.6 亿元，同比-35%；毛利率 19%，同比-3pct；净利润率 9%， 同比-2pct。此外，公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 4 元(含税)，拟现金分红 0.58 亿元，派息率为 76%。 25 年一季度归母净利润增长主因真爱毯业原徐村厂区土地、建筑及附属物 征收补偿收益 2 亿元。 吨价下行拖累毛利率 24 年分市场，国外营收 7.9 亿元，占比 90%，同比-9%，毛利率 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.74 CNY based on a 20x PE for 2025 [5][3]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from a new cycle of demand in offshore wind energy, particularly in China and Europe, with significant growth expected in domestic offshore wind installations starting in 2025 [3][9]. - The company has a robust production capacity expansion plan, aiming to increase its annual production capacity from 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons by 2025, supported by strategic investments in various port facilities [2][3]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings to include a broader range of offshore engineering equipment, enhancing its competitive edge in the deep-sea market [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 15 years of experience in the offshore wind component manufacturing sector and is a leading supplier in China [1][13]. - It operates under a dual strategy of "offshore + overseas," focusing on equipment manufacturing, renewable energy development, and operation and maintenance [1][13]. Market Demand - The report highlights a significant increase in offshore wind installation demand in both China and Europe, with projections indicating a 200% year-on-year increase in new installations in China by 2025 [9][35]. - In Europe, the offshore wind market is expected to see a 73% year-on-year increase in new installations in 2025, with a total of 48 GW expected from 2025 to 2030 [9][46]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has established multiple production bases across various provinces, with a current production capacity of 1 million tons, set to increase to 1.5 million tons by 2025 [2][3]. - The company is strategically investing in port facilities to support its export capabilities, particularly targeting the European market where there is a significant supply gap [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see a substantial recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 855.87 million CNY, 1.1 billion CNY, and 1.31 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in revenue, with estimates of 6.58 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 385.78% compared to 2024 [4][3]. Product Development - The company is expanding its product line to include a diversified range of offshore engineering equipment, moving beyond traditional wind turbine components [2][3]. - The focus on deep-sea markets is expected to drive innovation and product development, with increased R&D investment planned for 2024 [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 409 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.01%, and a net profit of 80 million yuan, with a slight increase of 0.31% [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its magnesium alloy die-casting business, which has seen significant revenue growth, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors [2][3] - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion both domestically and internationally, responding to the growing demand in Southeast Asia [3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 409 million yuan, with a net profit of 80 million yuan, and a net profit margin of 19.66% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 88 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.28%, but a decline in net profit to 17 million yuan, down 4.08% [1] - The company’s revenue from magnesium alloy die-casting reached 283 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 69.49% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 9.16 percentage points [2] Growth and Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 94 million yuan, 119 million yuan, and 152 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 40.06, 31.62, and 24.78 [4] - The company’s EBITDA is expected to grow from 149 million yuan in 2024 to 241 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its first-mover advantage in the magnesium alloy die-casting market and is actively expanding its production capacity to meet increasing global demand [3] - The company has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, including BMW and Audi, to supply magnesium alloy components for electric and traditional vehicles [3]

公司报告 | 公司点评 真爱美家（003041） 证券研究报告 巩固一带一路客户优势 公司发布 24 年报和 25 年一季报 25Q1：营收 1.8 亿元，同比+13%；归母净利润 2.1 亿元，同比+689%；扣 非归母净利润 0.44 亿元，同比+155%；毛利率 20%，同比-4pct；净利率 115%， 同比+99pct。 24Q4：营收 2.6 亿元，同比+1%；归母净利润 0.2 亿元，同比-14%；扣非归 母净利润 0.2 亿元，同比+1806%；毛利率 19%，同比-1pct；净利率 8%， 同比-1pct。 24 年：营收 8.8 亿元，同比-8%；归母净利润 0.76 亿元，同比-28%；扣非 归母净利润 0.6 亿元，同比-35%；毛利率 19%，同比-3pct；净利润率 9%， 同比-2pct。此外，公司拟每 10 股派发现金红利 4 元(含税)，拟现金分红 0.58 亿元，派息率为 76%。 25 年一季度归母净利润增长主因真爱毯业原徐村厂区土地、建筑及附属物 征收补偿收益 2 亿元。 吨价下行拖累毛利率 在市场区域方面，公司主要出口中东、北非和南非等地区，包含"一带一路" 中西亚和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 409 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.01%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 80.33 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.31% [1] - The company is expanding its magnesium alloy production capacity both domestically and internationally, responding to the growing demand in various sectors such as aerospace, automotive, and consumer electronics [2][3] - The company is focusing on innovation in magnesium alloy precision casting technology, aiming to enhance its market position and expand its applications in lightweight automotive components [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue from magnesium alloy die-casting parts reached 283 million yuan, accounting for 69.49% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 9.16 percentage points. Revenue from aluminum alloy die-casting parts was 102 million yuan, representing 24.91% of total revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.98 percentage points [2] - The company's net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 19.66%, a decrease of 3.08 percentage points year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the net profit margin is approximately 19.18%, a decrease of about 2.27 percentage points [1] - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow significantly from 352.22 million yuan in 2023 to 812.26 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.42% [4] Capacity Expansion and Market Position - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion, with domestic sales revenue of 287 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.66%, and export revenue of 122 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.74% [3] - The company is leveraging its partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, including BMW and Audi, to meet the demand for magnesium alloy components in both traditional and new energy vehicles [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.74 CNY based on a 20x PE for 2025 [5][3]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from a new cycle of demand in offshore wind energy, particularly in China and Europe, with significant growth expected in domestic offshore wind installations starting in 2025 [3][9]. - The company has a robust production capacity expansion plan, aiming to increase its annual production capacity from 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons by 2025 [2][3]. - The company is focusing on deep-sea and export markets, with strategic investments in product development and infrastructure to meet growing demand [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 15 years of experience in the offshore wind component manufacturing sector and is a leading supplier in China [1][13]. - It operates under a dual strategy of "offshore + overseas," focusing on equipment manufacturing, renewable energy development, and operation [1][13]. Market Demand - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic offshore wind installations, with an expected addition of 12 GW in 2025, representing a 200% year-on-year growth [9][35]. - In Europe, the offshore wind market is also projected to grow, with an expected 4.5 GW of new installations in 2025, a 73% increase from the previous year [9][46]. Production Capacity and Infrastructure - The company has established multiple production bases across various provinces, including Zhejiang and Guangdong, and has completed its base layout with several operational facilities [2][14]. - The company plans to enhance its product line to include a diversified range of offshore engineering equipment, creating a "4.0 product matrix" [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to see a significant recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 855.87 million CNY in 2025, increasing to 1.31 billion CNY by 2027 [3][4]. - The report anticipates a substantial increase in revenue, forecasting a jump from 1.35 billion CNY in 2024 to 6.58 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 385.78% [4][3]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for growth driven by the company's strategic focus on deep-sea wind energy and export markets, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue streams [2][3]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with approximately 4.88 billion CNY in contracts expected to be recognized as revenue in 2025 [31][3].