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债牛预期生变,存款或加速搬家
Western Securities· 2025-08-17 08:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current round of deposit transfer continues, with a stronger momentum in July than the same period last year. In July, the combined deposits of residents and enterprises decreased by 2.56 trillion yuan, reaching a four - year high. The growth rate of resident deposits slightly declined, while the growth rate of non - bank deposits significantly rebounded to 15% [2][12]. - The money - making effect in the bond market has declined, and funds are more likely to flow into the "fixed income +" and equity markets. Since 2025, the bond market has entered a "three - low" era of low interest rates, low spreads, and low volatility. The scale growth rates of bond funds and money market funds have declined, and there has been redemption pressure since July. The growth rate of fixed - income wealth management products has also slowed down. The market risk preference has continuously increased, and the net value of equity funds has maintained high - speed growth. The growth of equity and hybrid wealth management products is not obvious, but their yields have been rising. The transferred deposits have flowed into non - bank institutions but not significantly into wealth management products, indicating that both financial institutions and residents' deposits are flowing into "fixed income +" and equity assets, which are important driving forces for the current bull market in equities [2][16]. - The expectation of a bond bull market has changed, the yield curve has steepened upwards, which may trigger a second - round redemption wave. It is recommended to control the duration, allocate anti - decline medium - and short - duration credit bonds. Asset management institutions with longer durations can seize the opportunity of loose funds during the initial issuance of special treasury bonds to reduce the duration. Stable - liability allocation investors are advised to moderately increase their allocation of 10Y treasury bonds in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% and 30Y treasury bonds in the range of 2.0 - 2.05% [3][21][24]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, the market risk preference further increased, the equity market rose sharply, and the bond market sentiment was under pressure, with the yield curve steepening. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 6bp and 9bp respectively. The deposit transfer continued in July, with a stronger intensity than last year. The money - making effect in the bond market declined, and funds flowed into the "fixed income +" and equity markets [11][12][16]. - The expectation of a bond bull market has changed, the yield curve has steepened upwards, which may trigger a second - round redemption wave. The 7 - month social financing and credit data released this week were lower than expected, and domestic demand weakened, but the bond market was insensitive to the positive fundamentals. The overnight capital price increased marginally during the tax period, but the central bank maintained its supportive attitude, and the liquidity environment remained relatively abundant. It is expected that the central bank will continue to support the market during the initial issuance of 10 - year and 30 - year special treasury bonds next week [3][21][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds this week, and the funding rate increased. From August 11 to August 15, R001 and DR001 increased by 10bp and 9bp respectively compared to August 8, reaching 1.44% and 1.40%. The issuance rate of 3M certificates of deposit fluctuated upwards and then declined, and the FR007 - 1Y swap rate first increased, then decreased, and then slightly rebounded. By August 15, the transfer discount price of 1M national - share bank acceptance bills was 0.87%, a 10bp decrease compared to August 8 [25][26]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields increased this week. Except for the 3m and 3y tenors, the yields of other key - term treasury bonds increased. Except for the 3y - 1y, 7y - 5y, and 30 - 20y term spreads, other key - term treasury bond term spreads widened. As of August 15, the yields of 10y and 30y treasury bonds increased by 6bp and 9bp respectively compared to August 8, reaching 1.75% and 2.05%. The term spread between them widened by 2bp to 30bp, which is at a medium - to - high percentile level in history [34]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the median durations of all - sample bond funds and interest - rate bond funds decreased, and the divergence slightly increased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds rebounded, and the spreads between 50Y - 30Y and 20Y - 30Y treasury bonds widened. The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased to 107.5%, and the exchange leverage ratio remained flat at 122.4%. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds widened [44]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased this week. From August 11 to August 15, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 3791 billion yuan, a decrease of 2461 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - based financial bonds all decreased. Next week, new 10Y treasury bonds and 30Y special treasury bonds will be issued for the first time. The issuance scale of local government bonds will increase, and the planned issuance of policy - based financial bonds is 340 billion yuan. This week, the net financing of certificates of deposit turned negative, and the issuance rate slightly increased to 1.61% [59][62][64]. 3.3 Economic Data - In July, loans showed negative growth, but the growth rate of social finance still had resilience. The growth of social retail sales further slowed down, and the decline in real estate investment widened. Since August, port throughput has returned to strength, and industrial production has marginally recovered. The high - frequency infrastructure and price data this week showed that the mill operating rate rebounded, vegetable prices continued to rise, and asphalt prices continued to fall [69][70][74]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - In July, the core CPI in the United States reached a six - month high, and retail sales achieved stable growth. The Fed's Daly hinted at a possible policy easing. In the overseas bond market, the bond markets in China and Japan declined, while most emerging markets rose. The spread between 10Y US and Chinese treasury bonds widened [81][82][84]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index strengthened, closing at 4202.4 points on August 15, 2025, a 2.4% increase compared to August 8. This week, Shanghai gold slightly strengthened, while the Nanhua Pig Index and Shanghai gold weakened. The performance of major asset classes this week was: CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > Shanghai copper > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > Crude oil > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Rebar > Shanghai gold > Pigs [85]. 3.6 Policy Review - On August 15, the People's Bank of China released the "2025 Second - Quarter China Monetary Policy Implementation Report", elaborating on the implementation effects of the moderately loose monetary policy in the first half of the year. On August 12, nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Loan Interest Subsidy Policy for Service - Industry Business Entities", and three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Personal Consumption Loan Interest Subsidy Policy". Also on August 12, the "Sino - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement" was released, announcing a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff on each other's goods [88][90][92].
建筑建材行业周报:看好低估滞涨的大建筑蓝筹股-20250817
Western Securities· 2025-08-17 06:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on undervalued large construction blue-chip stocks, particularly in the building materials sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The construction and building materials sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with large blue-chip stocks remaining stagnant despite an active market for smaller stocks. Key companies like China Chemical, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction are highlighted for their low price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios [1][3]. - Infrastructure investment has shown signs of weakness, with July 2025 seeing a year-on-year decline of 5.07%, marking the first negative growth since February 2022. The overall fixed asset investment for the first seven months of 2025 is up by 1.6% [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in cement due to rising coal costs and a shift in market sentiment towards price hikes, particularly in regions like Chongqing and Guizhou [2][34]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The construction index fell by 0.58% while the building materials index rose by 2.13% during the week of August 11-15, 2025. Year-to-date, the construction index has increased by 6.75% [3][9]. - The report notes that the building materials sector is currently undervalued, with a PE ratio of 8.88 compared to the overall A-share market PE of 16.62 [3][15]. Special Bonds and Funding - As of August 15, 2025, the issuance of new local government special bonds amounted to 19.034 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.73% week-on-week. Cumulatively, 2.8369 trillion yuan has been issued this year, a 39.69% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2][21]. Cement Industry Data - National cement prices increased by 0.2% week-on-week, with significant price hikes observed in regions like Chongqing and Guizhou. The average national cement price is reported at 340.3 yuan per ton [34][35]. - Cement production for the first seven months of 2025 totaled 958 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [1][46]. Company Orders and Valuation - The report strongly recommends focusing on major construction blue-chip stocks such as China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, and China State Construction Engineering, as well as companies involved in overseas projects [3][15].
海外政策周聚焦:如何看待美国的养老金新规?
Western Securities· 2025-08-17 06:02
Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - On August 7, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order allowing alternative assets in 401(k) retirement savings plans, reducing regulatory burdens and litigation risks[1] - As of Q1 2025, Americans held $12.2 trillion in all employer-sponsored defined contribution (DC) retirement plans, with $8.7 trillion in 401(k) plans, indicating significant growth potential for alternative investments[1][20] - The inclusion of alternative assets could open a new opportunity window for the alternative investment market, which has been historically limited by regulatory constraints[1][33] Group 2: Performance and Liquidity of Alternative Assets - Since 2000, private equity has delivered an annualized time-weighted net return of 13%, significantly outperforming publicly listed stocks, which returned 8% during the same period[2][30] - As of December 2023, the net asset value of U.S. private equity and venture capital benchmarks totaled $2 trillion, while REITs held over $4 trillion in total assets, suggesting ample liquidity for alternative investments[2][31] - 43% of alternative investment managers expect over 5% of funds in DC plans to be allocated to alternative assets in the next five years, enhancing liquidity in the alternative investment market[2][31] Group 3: Risks and Costs of Alternative Investments - Alternative assets often exhibit poor liquidity, opaque valuations, and high volatility, presenting greater risks compared to traditional products[2][32] - Private equity funds typically charge higher fees, with a common structure of "2% and 20%", compared to an average fee of 0.26% for mutual funds in 401(k) plans, potentially eroding investor returns[2][32] - The legal and regulatory frameworks for many alternative assets are underdeveloped, increasing uncertainty and potential legal risks for investors[2][32]
交通运输行业周报20250816:7月快递行业业务量同比+15.1%,2025H1京东物流营收同比+14.1%-20250816
Western Securities· 2025-08-16 14:50
Investment Rating - The report recommends an overweight rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expected increase in performance exceeding the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [33]. Core Insights - In July, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, with a total of 16.4 billion packages delivered [4]. - JD Logistics reported a revenue of 98.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [4]. - The transportation index decreased by 0.51% this week, ranking 25th among 30 primary sub-industries [4]. - The aviation sector showed the highest growth this week, with an increase of 1.60% [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The express delivery business volume reached 16.4 billion pieces in July, up 15.1% year-on-year, while the revenue was 120.64 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% [4]. - CCFI index decreased by 0.62% to 1193.34 points, while SCFI index fell by 1.98% to 1460.19 points [4]. Company Performance - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 51.6 billion yuan in Q2 2025, marking a 16.6% year-on-year increase [4]. - Non-IFRS net profit for JD Logistics in H1 2025 was 3.3 billion yuan, up 7.1% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies such as JD Logistics, Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, Jitu Express, Spring Airlines, and Sichuan Chengyu [4].
量化基金业绩跟踪周报(2025.08.11-2025.08.15):本周指增超额回撤较大-20250816
Western Securities· 2025-08-16 14:10
- The report primarily focuses on the performance of quantitative public funds, including index-enhanced funds (tracking indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500), actively managed quantitative funds, and market-neutral funds, over various timeframes such as weekly, monthly, and year-to-date (YTD) periods[1][2][3] - The performance metrics include excess returns for index-enhanced funds, absolute returns for actively managed quantitative funds, and market-neutral strategies, along with additional indicators such as tracking error and maximum drawdown for specific categories[10][30] - For CSI 300 index-enhanced funds, the YTD average excess return is 0.83%, with a maximum of 7.15% and a minimum of -3.17%, while the tracking error over the past year ranges from 1.80% to 8.15%[10] - For CSI A500 index-enhanced funds, the YTD average excess return is 2.99%, with a maximum of 5.83% and a minimum of -2.14%, and the tracking error for the year ranges from 3.24% to 9.38%[10] - For CSI 500 index-enhanced funds, the YTD average excess return is 1.58%, with a maximum of 7.75% and a minimum of -5.27%, while the tracking error over the past year ranges from 2.77% to 10.35%[10] - For CSI 1000 index-enhanced funds, the YTD average excess return is 5.10%, with a maximum of 12.99% and a minimum of -3.14%, and the tracking error for the year ranges from 2.89% to 8.28%[10] - Actively managed quantitative funds show a YTD average return of 17.91%, with a maximum of 59.74% and a minimum of -9.92%, while the maximum drawdown over the past year ranges from 5.05% to 31.80%[10] - Market-neutral funds have a YTD average return of 1.00%, with a maximum of 8.81% and a minimum of -2.56%, while the maximum drawdown over the past year ranges from 2.15% to 7.14%[10]
东方财富(300059):2025 年中报点评:业绩符合预期,经纪两融收入高增
Western Securities· 2025-08-16 13:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][3]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 6.856 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.567 billion for the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 38.7% and 37.3% respectively [6][3]. - The company's brokerage and margin trading income saw significant growth, with a 74% year-on-year increase in trading volume for margin financing [2]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from active market trading, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 11.479 billion, 12.319 billion, and 12.930 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19.4%, 7.3%, and 5.0% [3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's operating revenue, net interest income, and commission income were 1.578 billion, 1.431 billion, and 3.847 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.6%, 39.4%, and 60.6% [1][6]. - The company's average return on equity (ROE) increased by 1.17 percentage points to 6.7% [6]. Market Position and Financial Performance - The company's market share in margin financing remained stable, with a year-on-year increase in margin balance of 33.8% to 58.3 billion [2]. - The company expanded its financial asset investment scale, with trading financial assets increasing by 45.7% to 107.2 billion by the end of the first half of 2025 [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 14.423 billion, 15.859 billion, and 16.862 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 24.3%, 10.0%, and 6.3% [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 36.8, 34.3, and 32.7 respectively [4].
A股TTM、全动态估值全景扫描:A股估值扩张,通信行业领涨
Western Securities· 2025-08-16 12:20
Core Insights - The overall valuation of A-shares has expanded this week, with the communication industry leading the gains. The opening of the channel for computing chips from the US to China, combined with the continuous development of downstream AI models and applications, has kept the computing and its upstream communication equipment in high demand, resulting in a significant rise in the communication equipment sector. The current historical percentile of the full dynamic PE for the communication equipment secondary industry has reached 79.8%, indicating a high level [1][8]. Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares increased from 20.68 times last week to 21.08 times this week, while the PB (LF) rose from 1.69 times to 1.74 times [10]. - The overall full dynamic PE of key A-share companies increased from 13.66 times to 13.90 times this week [12]. Sector Valuation Details - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board rose from 68.20 times to 71.57 times, while the PB (LF) increased from 3.83 times to 4.04 times [19]. - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation board increased from 215.04 times to 227.55 times, and the PB (LF) rose from 3.79 times to 4.65 times [25]. - The relative PE (TTM) for computing infrastructure, excluding operators/resource categories, increased from 4.54 times to 4.87 times, and the relative PB (LF) rose from 2.84 times to 4.09 times [27]. Industry Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, industries such as consumer discretionary and consumer staples are overvalued, while essential consumer and resource sectors are undervalued. In primary industries, computer, textile and apparel, and construction materials are overvalued, while steel and real estate are undervalued [2]. - In terms of PB (LF), consumer discretionary and resource sectors are overvalued, while essential consumer sectors are undervalued. In primary industries, automotive and electronics are relatively high, while construction decoration, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and construction materials are undervalued [2]. - The full dynamic PE indicates that consumer discretionary and financial services are relatively high, while essential consumer and resource sectors are undervalued. In primary industries, real estate and computers are relatively high, while food and beverage and social services are undervalued [2]. Comparative Analysis - Current industries such as communication, non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, and agriculture exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [2]. - Industries like construction materials, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, media, and automotive show both low valuation and high performance growth [2]. Market Comparison - The A-share non-financial ERP decreased from 1.33% last week to 1.20% this week, and the equity-debt yield spread fell from 0.11% to 0.00% [3][67]. - The full dynamic ERP for key non-financial A-share companies decreased from 3.77% to 3.57% [71].
北交所市场点评:震荡调整,新股上市加速,关注打新及中报行情
Western Securities· 2025-08-15 14:04
Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on high-growth and scarce varieties, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4][31]. Core Insights - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with a notable increase in new stock listings and a focus on the performance of mid-year reports [2][4]. - The North Exchange's A-share trading volume reached 27.39 billion yuan, reflecting a 27 billion yuan increase from the previous trading day, while the North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1432.8, down 1.99% [2][9]. - The report highlights the active participation in new stock subscriptions, with significant funds frozen for new listings, indicating a "risk-free arbitrage" effect [4][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On August 14, the North Exchange A-share trading volume was 27.39 billion yuan, with the North Exchange 50 Index down 1.99% and a PE_TTM of 66.64 times [2][9]. - Among 271 companies on the North Exchange, 24 saw an increase in stock prices, while 245 experienced declines [17]. Important News - The first domestically produced commercial electron beam lithography machine was developed by Zhejiang University, achieving a precision of 0.6nm and a linewidth of 8nm, comparable to international equipment [20]. - China's total computing power ranks second globally, with 4.55 million 5G base stations and 226 million gigabit broadband users [21]. Key Company Announcements - Hongyu Packaging reported a revenue of 320 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.54%, with a net profit of 12.21 million yuan, up 147.37% [22]. - Bingyang Technology plans to invest 10 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Inner Mongolia to develop fracturing proppant business [27].
行业主题基金专题研究(四):科技主题基金研究框架及产品优选
Western Securities· 2025-08-15 12:11
Group 1: Report's Core View - Build an active technology-themed fund pool, classify it into balanced technology funds and single-track technology funds based on historical allocations, and select high-quality funds through quantitative and qualitative methods. Recommended funds include Invesco Great Wall Quality Longevity, Caitong Asset Management Digital Economy, Harvest Hong Kong Internet Industry Core Assets, China Europe Intelligent Manufacturing, and Baoying Technology 30 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Science and Technology Industry Theme Fund Sample Pool - The screening criteria for industry theme funds include fund type, stock position, establishment time, fund size, and industry position. A total of 531 technology theme funds are screened, with 299 having a scale of no less than 200 million yuan, covering 77 public fund managers and 191 fund managers, with a total scale of 42.6439 billion yuan [12][13] 3.2 Science and Technology Industry Theme Fund Selection 3.2.1 Science and Technology Industry Theme Fund Classification - Divide technology theme funds into single-track technology funds and balanced technology funds based on the average allocation in four technology sub - industries. Further classify balanced technology funds based on historical technology allocations, and conduct label classifications such as position flexibility, Hong Kong stock investment, and turnover rate [21] 3.2.2 Selection Method - Quantitative and Qualitative Indicators - Quantitatively score and rank funds, selecting those with comprehensive scores in the top 35% in the past one - year and three - year periods. Qualitatively select funds based on factors such as fund manager performance consistency, historical returns and drawdowns, investment years, background, and institutional shareholding changes [22][24] 3.2.3 Science and Technology Theme Fund Selection Pool - Select 5 balanced technology funds: Invesco Great Wall Quality Longevity, Caitong Asset Management Digital Economy, Harvest Hong Kong Internet Industry Core Assets, China Europe Intelligent Manufacturing, and Baoying Technology 30. Select 3 single - track technology funds: Taixin Xinxuan, Yongying Semiconductor Industry Smart Selection, and Huaxia Sports Culture [25] 3.3 Science and Technology Industry Theme Fund In - depth Analysis 3.3.1 Industry Allocation: Different Sub - Tracks - Analyze the industry allocations of balanced technology funds. In the technology sector, the allocation proportions of different funds vary in different periods. In terms of specific industries, each fund has its own focus, and there are also differences in non - technology industry allocations [29][32][33] 3.3.2 Operational Characteristics: Different Investment Styles - Technology theme selected funds have high positions with differences in Hong Kong stocks, high industry concentration focusing on the technology industry, differences in top - ten stock concentration, relatively few holdings, different turnover rates, and differences in price - to - earnings ratios of heavy - position holdings [38][39] 3.3.3 Latest Quarterly Report: AI Remains the Main Line, Computing Power + Applications - According to the 25Q2 quarterly report, Invesco Great Wall Quality Longevity, Caitong Asset Management Digital Economy, and Baoying Technology 30 allocate both computing power and application ends; Harvest Hong Kong Internet Industry Core Assets and China Europe Intelligent Manufacturing focus on AI applications. Each fund has its own emphasis in the AI application end [49] 3.3.4 Fund Managers: Different Backgrounds and Styles - The backgrounds and investment concepts of the five fund managers vary. Some have sell - side TMT research experience and are good at bottom - up stock selection, while others have different investment focuses and styles [53] 3.3.5 Historical Performance: The Alpha of Technology Theme Funds is Not Significant - Since 2024 (as of August 15, 2025), the average return of technology theme funds is 31.45% with a maximum drawdown of - 25.73%. The performance and maximum drawdown of the technology index are 30.35% and - 26.77% respectively. The excess return and excess drawdown are 1.10% and 1.04% respectively. The excess return and excess drawdown of the selected technology theme funds are 34.51% and 0.61% respectively [55] 3.3.6 Scale and Institutional Shareholding: The Scale of Caitong Asset Management Digital Economy Increases Significantly with a High Institutional Shareholding Ratio - In 25Q2, the scale of all selected technology theme funds increased. Caitong Asset Management Digital Economy and Invesco Great Wall Quality Longevity had relatively large scale increases. Only Baoying Technology 30 had a slight decline in shares. Caitong Asset Management Digital Economy had the largest share increase. The institutional shareholding ratios of Caitong Asset Management Digital Economy, Invesco Great Wall Quality Longevity, and Harvest Hong Kong Internet Industry Core Assets were all above 50% [58] 3.4 Summary - Build a technology theme fund selection framework, select funds through qualitative and quantitative methods, and conduct in - depth analysis. Select 5 balanced technology funds and 3 single - track technology funds. Analyze the industry allocations, investment styles, quarterly report configurations, fund manager characteristics, scale changes, and risk - return characteristics of balanced technology funds [63][64][65]
天山股份(000877):首次覆盖报告:全国水泥产能市占率第一,周期底部价值凸显
Western Securities· 2025-08-15 11:51
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Tianshan Co., Ltd. (000877.SZ), with a target price of 8.22 CNY per share based on a 0.7x PB for 2025 [1][6][21]. Core Insights - Tianshan Co., Ltd. is the largest cement producer in China with a complete industrial chain and national layout. The company is expected to benefit from cost control improvements, seasonal price increases, and policy-driven supply-side adjustments. The company is also expanding its "Cement+" business and overseas markets to create new growth avenues [1][2][3][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tianshan Co., Ltd. is a core enterprise under China National Building Material Group, with the largest cement clinker capacity in the country. The company has undergone significant growth and restructuring, becoming a national leader in the cement industry [25][31][26]. Industry Demand and Supply - Demand for cement is projected to decline by 5-6% in 2025, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow. The company is well-positioned to benefit from infrastructure projects in Xinjiang, where it holds a leading market share [2][54]. - The supply side is seeing a trend towards "anti-involution," with policies aimed at reducing overproduction. The industry is expected to improve its competitive landscape as excess capacity is gradually eliminated [2][57]. Performance and Cost Management - The company has faced pressure on revenue and profits in recent years, but the rate of decline is improving. Cost management is expected to enhance profitability, with a projected decrease in unit costs by 23 CNY in 2024 [3][4]. - The company is focusing on integrated operations and overseas expansion, with expectations of revenue growth from international projects [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of 83.3 billion CNY in 2025, with a net profit of 1.72 billion CNY. The projections for 2026 and 2027 are 82.6 billion CNY and 82.1 billion CNY in revenue, respectively [4][21]. - The report highlights that the company's current valuation is at a historical low, providing significant upside potential [21]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes a 10% decline in cement and clinker sales in 2025, with a gradual recovery in subsequent years. It also anticipates price stability and cost reductions due to improved management practices [15][16][17].