Core Conclusions - The public fund market in 2025 saw an increase in both scale and share, with significant changes in structure, as fixed income and active equity funds experienced net redemptions, while fixed income+ and index equity funds were net subscribed [1][3] - Global equity markets strengthened, with domestic stocks outperforming bonds, leading to overall gains in funds, particularly in active funds outperforming passive products, with notable performance in technology and cyclical theme funds [1][2] - For 2026, it is expected that equities will continue to have upward potential, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced allocation between growth and reversal strategies, while flexibly seizing short-term opportunities [1][4] Market Development: Total Growth and Structural Changes - The total scale of public funds surpassed 35 trillion yuan, with stock funds growing by over 1 trillion yuan, indicating a robust market expansion [13] - The number of public funds increased to 13,300, with significant growth in stock and REITs funds, while money market and alternative investment funds saw a decline [13][25] - Active equity funds grew by 21%, with a notable recovery in new fund launches, particularly in technology theme funds, which saw a growth rate exceeding 50% [1][2][29] Performance Analysis: Strong Equity and Weak Bonds - The performance of various asset classes showed that equities outperformed bonds, with gold reaching new highs and equity assets experiencing a broad rally [2][9] - Active funds outperformed passive funds, with specific themes such as TMT, cyclical, and advanced manufacturing showing strong results [9][2] - Fixed income+ funds demonstrated superior performance, particularly those with high allocations to fixed income and convertible bonds [9][20] Investment Strategies: Balanced Allocation and Trend Following - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy for equity funds, emphasizing the importance of flexibility in capturing phase-specific market opportunities [4][3] - For fixed income funds, the emergence of the fixed income+ era is highlighted, with a focus on asset and strategy characteristics based on risk preferences [5][39] - The report advocates for a global multi-asset allocation approach, emphasizing the value of overseas and commodity funds, with recommendations to follow QDII quotas and focus on mutual recognition funds and southbound ETFs [6][32]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on the commercial aerospace and computing power industry chain, suggesting a positive outlook for these sectors [3]. Core Insights - The market showed significant differentiation, with technology growth leading while cyclical consumption faced pressure. The computing power hardware sector, particularly influenced by the news of NVIDIA being allowed to sell H200 chips to China, demonstrated resilience [3]. - The North Exchange market, primarily composed of specialized and innovative enterprises, has not directly benefited from the influx of funds into the computing power sector but still exhibited some anti-dip characteristics among tech-heavy stocks [3]. - The current valuation of the North Exchange 50 Index is at a low percentile compared to the past year, indicating a release of valuation pressure [3]. - Policy expectations are rising towards the end of the year, with a focus on stable progress and proactive fiscal measures, which may enhance market liquidity in the medium to long term [3]. Market Review - On December 9, the North Exchange A-share trading volume reached 139.2 billion, a decrease of 11.8 billion from the previous trading day. The North Exchange 50 Index closed at 1401.73, down 1.72%, with a PE_TTM of 66.35 times. The specialized and innovative index closed at 2343.91, down 1.48% [8][3]. - Among 286 companies on the North Exchange, 28 saw an increase, 1 remained flat, and 257 experienced a decline. The top five gainers included Dapeng Industrial (10.1%), Caneng Electric (5.5%), and Fangsheng Co. (5.2%), while the top five losers included Kangle Weishi (-7.5%) and Airong Software (-5.5%) [18][19]. Important News - The U.S. government has allowed NVIDIA to sell its H200 AI chips to China, imposing a 25% fee per chip, marking a significant policy shift [21]. - Demand for MLCCs is expected to grow at an annual rate of 30%, driven by AI applications, with major manufacturers like Murata and Samsung planning to expand production capacity [22].

Group 1: Consumer Industry Outlook - The consumer industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with fundamental recovery acting as a catalyst for stock prices. Positive information is increasing, and companies are focusing more on dividends and buybacks, improving the competitive landscape [1][5] - The "dividend +" strategy is recommended as a short-term stable allocation strategy, with a focus on high-end consumption and certain mass-market products showing signs of recovery [5] - The market is expected to gradually return its focus to the consumer sector, although there are still concerns regarding valuation and the performance of non-mainstream sectors [5] Group 2: Insurance Industry Strategy - The insurance sector is expected to be a growth area in the financial industry, with leading companies benefiting from scale effects, brand recognition, and customer loyalty [10] - The insurance stocks' performance in 2025 was driven by asset performance, with distinct phases observed throughout the year, including periods of market volatility and policy support [8][10] - Key metrics for insurance companies include asset under management (AUM) growth and interest spread improvement, which are essential for stable investment returns [9][10] Group 3: Biotechnology Company - Baiaosaitu - Baiaosaitu is an innovative biotechnology company focused on drug development, utilizing proprietary gene editing technology to create various therapeutic antibodies [12][14] - The company has seen significant revenue growth, with projections indicating revenues of 1.387 billion, 1.809 billion, and 2.306 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 41.5%, 30.4%, and 27.4% respectively [13][14] - The company has established a global presence with its animal model sales, which have increased from 50 million yuan in 2019 to 389 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a strong demand for its innovative models [13][14] Group 4: Domestic Policy Insights - The central government's focus for 2026 emphasizes a balanced approach to economic development, with a strong emphasis on enhancing quality and efficiency [16][17] - Policies will likely prioritize expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with specific measures expected to support consumption and innovation [17][18] - The government aims to address risks in key areas while ensuring the stability of people's livelihoods, indicating a comprehensive approach to economic governance [18]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][15]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a technology-driven biopharmaceutical firm focused on innovative drug development, aiming to become a global source of new drugs through proprietary gene editing technologies [1][21]. - The company has developed the RenMice® platform for discovering fully human therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and other antibody types, establishing a strong growth trajectory and high technical barriers [1][21]. - The "Thousand Mice, Ten Thousand Antibodies" initiative enhances development efficiency and supports the company's antibody licensing business, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [3][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - The company operates two main business lines: preclinical products and services, and antibody molecule transfer development, leveraging its proprietary gene editing technology [21][22]. - The company has established a global sales system and aims to be a leading supplier of innovative animal models for drug development [25][30]. 2. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of CNY 13.87 billion, CNY 18.09 billion, and CNY 23.06 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 41.5%, 30.4%, and 27.4% [4][15]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2024, with a net profit forecast of CNY 1.47 billion, CNY 3.35 billion, and CNY 5.27 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating substantial growth [4][15]. 3. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company differentiates itself from traditional model animal companies by integrating model platforms, antibody platforms, and efficacy validation platforms, creating a comprehensive technology platform [13][21]. - The company has a significant first-mover advantage in humanized models and has established a large inventory of humanized models, enhancing its competitive edge [13][14]. 4. Growth Drivers - The company’s antibody development business is expected to maintain significant growth as more antibody molecules enter clinical development, contributing to milestone revenues [11][14]. - The company has signed numerous transfer and licensing agreements, indicating a robust pipeline and potential for future revenue generation [14][15]. 5. Operational Highlights - The company has established three major animal centers in Nantong, Beijing, and Boston, enhancing its capacity to produce high-quality animal models for global clients [30][34]. - The company’s innovative animal models are considered essential resources for drug development, with a focus on validating drug efficacy in preclinical stages [70].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [4]. Core Insights - The consumer sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with fundamental recovery acting as a catalyst for stock prices. Positive information regarding fundamentals is increasing, and companies are focusing more on dividends and buybacks [1][12]. - The "Redemption+" strategy is recommended as a short-term stable allocation strategy, with a focus on high-quality global assets and marginal recovery in specific sectors like beer and dairy [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumer groups and market segments, particularly the "Z Generation" and "New Middle Class," which are driving long-term structural growth in domestic demand [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Outlook - The domestic consumer sector is entering a low-growth phase, with opportunities primarily in dividend-type investments and those showing marginal improvements [12]. - The "Z Generation" and "New Middle Class" are identified as key consumer groups with strong payment willingness and consumption characteristics [13][16]. - Retail channel transformations are leading to increased concentration of upstream brands, with new retail brands like "October Rice Field" showing significant growth potential [19][24]. 2. Investment Outlook for Key Sectors in 2026 - Baijiu - Guizhou Moutai's prices are nearing the bottom, indicating a long-term investment value. The current valuation corresponds to a 20x PE for 2025, with a dividend yield exceeding 3.7% [29][33]. - Jinhuijiu is gaining market share within the province, with a focus on product structure improvement and healthy inventory levels [35][39]. 3. Investment Outlook for Key Sectors in 2026 - Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector has undergone significant cleaning of fundamentals, with no inventory burdens remaining for categories like dairy and beer [40]. - Companies like China Resources Beer and Mengniu Dairy are highlighted for their potential for improvement and growth in earnings [44]. 4. Investment Outlook for Key Sectors in 2026 - White Goods - Haier is noted for its organizational efficiency improvements and market adjustments, positioning it well for future growth [20][21]. 5. Investment Outlook for Key Sectors in 2026 - Technology Consumption - Companies like Anker and Ecovacs are recognized for their innovative platform development and operational resilience, indicating strong growth potential [22][23]. 6. Investment Outlook for Key Sectors in 2026 - Medical Aesthetics - Companies like Juzhi Biotechnology and Jinbo Biotechnology are highlighted for their technological leadership and platform upgrades, driving value reassessment [25][26]. 7. Investment Outlook for Key Sectors in 2026 - Overseas Quality Assets - Companies like Westair and Kingworld are gaining attention from domestic funds due to their strong competitive positions and growth potential in overseas markets [27][28].

行业周报 | 北交所 科技主线引领结构性修复，政策与资金共振强化配置价值 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 北交所市场周报——251201-251205 核心结论 北交所市场复盘：当周北交所全部 A 股日均成交额达 138.8 亿元，环比上涨 4.2%。当周北证 50 收涨 1.49%，当周日均换手率达 1.8%。当周涨幅前五 大个股分别为：豪声电子（13.9%）、优机股份（13.6%）、星图测控（13.3%）、 三协电机（13.2%）、创远信科（11.2%）；跌幅前五大个股分别为：大鹏工业 （-15.0%）、昆工科技（-13.8%）、恒拓开源（-10.6%）、迪尔化工（-9.5%）、 美登科技（-8.8%）。 重点新闻及政策：1）Palantir 携手英伟达开发软件平台，以加快 AI 数据中 心建设：Palantir、英伟达和美国公用事业公司 CenterPoint Energy 宣布， 三方正共同开发一款新的软件平台，以加速新一代人工智能（AI）数据中心 的建设；该软件系统被命名为"连锁反应"（Chain Reaction），将使用 AI 工具来协助客户；2）两部门：支持具备资质和条件的企业 ...

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国内政策点评报告 政治局会议定调明年经济政策 注重多重平衡、聚焦提质增效 核心结论 中共中央 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共 产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。整体而言，会议对今年以来各项工作予以 高度肯定。在延续此前"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"、"更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策"、扩大内需、支持创新的政策基调之上，明年经 济工作将更加注重多方面因素的统筹与平衡，更为聚焦经济发展的提质增 效。以下为部分重点内容分析： 一是会议注重统筹考虑国内外综合因素。提出"更好统筹国内经济工作和国 际经贸斗争"，与今年 4 月政治局会议的表达一致。预计未来应对全球贸易 摩擦纷争，国内政策仍将留有"后手"，不断充实政策储备。 二是会议注重统筹逆周期调节与跨周期调节。宏观政策延续"更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"基调，新增"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成 效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能"的说法， 更强调政策的结构、质量、效果，不排除后续不断创新相关政策工具。 三是会议注重统筹供给与需求、存量与增量。会议一如既往重视内需，提出 "持续扩大内需、优 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 核心结论 分析师 【策略】2026 年机械行业年度投资策略：聚四海星火，淬国之重器——全 面为国产算力生产配套 AI 驱动全球半导体大周期，国内算力芯片和存储芯片资本支出需求旺盛，国 产半导体设备预计深度受益 晨会纪要 【国内政策】"十五五"规划指标体系前瞻：五年规划"导航图"将如何引 领发展方向？ 预计"十五五"时期的指标体系将建立在"十四五"指标体系的基础之上， 与十四五期间的指标体系相比，或出现指标范围扩大、指标项目创新、指标 数据更新升级等变化；总体精神与方向将同国家战略导向共振，可能在国民 经济、民生福祉、安全保障等领域会出现部分指标的调整并新设数个指标， 从而引导未来经济与社会发展。 【煤炭】中国神华（601088.SH）首次覆盖报告：煤炭龙头，能源航母 预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 543.88 亿、558.78 亿、575.04 亿，EPS 分别为 2.74、2.81、2.89 元，同比增长-7.30%、2.74%、2.91%。 考虑 DDM 估值方法，给予公司目标价 48.96 元/股。首次覆盖，给予"增持" 评级。 【总量 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the global semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant cycle driven by AI, with China's semiconductor sector benefiting from this trend and policy guidance, leading to a potential for a fully self-sufficient integrated circuit industry [6][18][27] - The AI market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.3% over the next five years, with the global semiconductor market expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, particularly in the server, data center, and storage sectors [6][14][18] - Domestic demand for advanced logic foundry services is expected to reach 71,200 wafers per month by 2028, indicating a significant supply-demand gap in China's advanced logic foundry capacity [7][32][45] Group 2 - The report anticipates a new pricing cycle in the global storage market driven by AI, with domestic storage manufacturers expected to play a leading role in capacity expansion [49][50][61] - The demand for DRAM and NAND is projected to grow significantly, with DRAM bit demand expected to increase by 17-19% and NAND bit demand by 18-20% in the coming years [58][59] - Major storage manufacturers are focusing on technology upgrades and capacity control, which may lead to a supply-demand gap, benefiting domestic manufacturers like Changxin Storage and Yangtze Memory Technologies [61][68] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic semiconductor equipment investment, with a projected market size of $389 billion in China by 2025, leading the global market [81][86] - The expansion of advanced nodes in domestic semiconductor manufacturing is expected to enter a high prosperity phase, with significant capital expenditure planned for the coming years [81][86] - The report suggests that companies with high exposure to storage will outperform, drawing parallels to previous cycles where equipment companies saw substantial stock price increases [72][86]